Bill Simmons: Is Oden overrated by us?
by diskord on Feb 10, 2009 7:00 PM PST
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PrintSo in his latest edition of his podcast "The BS Report" Simmons and his buddy Joe House do their annual talk ranking the top 40 tradeable (or least tradeable, depending on your take) players in the NBA.
The good: He ranked Roy at 10th, and argued that other than a Kobe/LeBron/Wade type deal the Blazers might not even trade him for anyone in that 5-10 range... pretty high praise. Obviously Roy's rookie contract is a big plus, but he continues to worry about injuries. I don't get the injury worries, Roy doesn't miss any more time than any other star player but whatever, I'm not worried.
He also ranked LMA in the top 40, he was in the high 30's. Sounds about right to me (honestly maybe even a little high of a ranking for LMA, I mean I like the guy but there are a lot of PF's I would quickly swap LMA for).
The Bad: They talk about Oden. First of all Simmons had him ranked at 25, while his buddy House had Oden not even ranked! Simmons argument is that Oden is ranked 25 because the Blazers wouldn't trade him for anyone other than the 25 players below him, but that it has a caveat that ONLY the Blazers value him this highly, that every other team in the league has no interest in Oden. I find this completely mind boggling, and that a ton of other teams would quickly trade for Oden's talent.
But I got to thinking about it, is it just us in Portland that have unrealistic expectations for Oden and that indeed we may have made a mistake in picking Oden over Durant? I am okay with that even, as long as Oden turns out to be a quality big man in the post, but Simmons and House take is that Oden is a complete bust and will be a marginal starter at best.
Do we as Blazer fans over value Oden? I for one keep preaching patience, that he is a rookie, coming back from a major knee surgery, and is still extremely young. I have a friend that is a huge L@ker fan (I know, how can I even be friends with him?!?!) and he goes on and on and on about Bynum and how he is sooo much better than Oden. I defend Oden all the time, pointing to Bynum's 4 years in the league vs Oden's 6 months.
So I guess the question I have is, if you can take off your Blazer glasses for a second and try and be as objective as possible, is Oden producing like we expect a #1 pick to? Is he still on track to be a dominate post player for years to come? What is his ceiling/projection at this point? Servicable starter? 1-2 All star appearances? League MVP/Hall of Fame calibur player? What is your take?
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Simmons knows there are thousands of Blazer fans
who will generate hits for ESPN.com whenever he stirs our pot. Ignore him. Oden will be the best center in the West in two or three years. You heard it here FIRST.
by MiledAnimal on Feb 10, 2009 7:05 PM PST reply actions 8 recs
+1
You are 100% correct. Because we are the best fans in the NBA it is in Billy’s best interests to keep riling us up. People will react more to the bad stuff than the good. If you don’t like Bill Simmons, the best thing to do is ignore him and do not log into ESPN.com and read his stuff if you really, really hate him. I, on the other hand, will continue to read his garbage talk knowing that even in Drexler’s days you rarely heard about the Blazers in the national media because nobody cared. Now, it seems one way or the other, people care about what’s going on here and I think that’s awesome. I would be thrilled if I thought other fans rescted to our team the way we react to the L@kers.
this has been a message from: "The People's Alliance to give Greg Oden at least a couple of seasons."
Bill Simmons does not care about us.
Seriously, we’re so important?
Oden, as much as I love him, does not have the game come to him like Durant. I got irritated with Simmons when he pointed all of this out before the draft but…. what are you going to do. He’s 20 and he’s killing it. You want the better basketball player, Durant is your guy.
Has Oden, even once this year, showed anything resembling a killer instinct or an edge that makes him intimidating? I haven’t seen it. Hell I was ecstatic when he fouled David West hard. But then against the Knicks he lets David Lee take him to the hoop (twice) and gives him a gentle little foul (twice) so he can have a free throw to go with his point-blank layup.
It’s true Oden is worth more to us than anyone else, in all kinds of ways. You can see it most notably in the emotional responses that you get from this forum when he’s questioned. Even this early it’s plain Durant is a better basketball player, and in all likelihood will continue to be. But – and this is a big one, it’s also true that it’s easier (and cheaper) to come by the skills that Durant has than the ones that Oden has. Hopefully Oden, because of his position, intelligence, and hugeness, will turn out to be the right overall pick, and will take us to a bunch of championships.
Imagine this though. If it’s the end of the game and you have Durant, Outlaw and Roy, you’re un-guardable, no team in the league can stop you from getting a good look.
by begottenson on Feb 11, 2009 11:52 AM PST up reply actions
the Nate factor
If Durant was playing SF for McMillian, Nate would have him parked in the corner shooting 3s
Kevin is better off being “the man” in OKC.
I’ll take the dominant center, warts and all, and hope the lights come on for Greg in his next 40 games
I think most folks knew Durant was
the more talented player and probably would always be. He just ain’t seven feet and 260.
One more thing: Our forwards have to be able to bench press 185 lbs at least once.
+1
Simmons is a marketing machine.
by Nick Van Excellent on Feb 10, 2009 7:23 PM PST up reply actions
He is like Howard Stern
Sometimes people who hate him read his stuff more than people who like him. Also like the morning show on 95.5.
These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others. -Groucho Marx
I am... in this thread.
I thread, therefore I am.
by MiledAnimal on Feb 10, 2009 10:10 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Another one for my trophy case!
I thank you, Leslie thanks you.
by MiledAnimal on Feb 10, 2009 10:38 PM PST up reply actions
Lest Anyone forget
This is what he had to write about Oden after the OSU-Florida National Championship game.
Reads a little differently than most of his pieces about Greg.
"every other team in the league has no interest in Oden"
GOOD. I am done with the Durant/Oden debate. If the Blazers organization wanted Greg to put up big numbers they would do what the Sonics did with Durant last year.
Karma
I wonder if McHale would trade Love for Oden?
Or if NJ would trade Lopez for Oden straight up?
Lopez has much better stats
And I’d take him over Oden for this year only. From the outside looking in I could see that, but Oden is still getting over microfracture and not playing for a year, so I’d take him every season after this one.
"Hightide was the only "Yes" vote" - parkinglotj
Joel Freeland=Stud
Lopez plays more minutes
If you look at stats on a per-minute basis, you can make a strong argument that Greg’s stats are better.
Thats where fouls come it
Condition, the ability to stay on the floor, and add the fact he is already drawing double teams on offense and blocking more more shots per minute…. Add that all in and this season only I’d take Lopez over Oden.
"Hightide was the only "Yes" vote" - parkinglotj
Joel Freeland=Stud
fair enough
When Oden is able to consistently stay on the floor, then he’ll be a more valuable player than Lopez.
Boomshakalaka
I would take Oden
Love and Lopez are looking good now but they aren’t getting over the mf surgery, my guess is that next year we will get a better read on his physical abilities (quickness, mobility, etc). I am not sure if their GMs would trade though, maybe they prefer what they see in their picks vs the potential of Oden.
After others pointed out how few touches he gets a game, I started to look at other players and I started to realize how true this is… so I would like to see him get more touches this year, that would probably give us another read on him.
by QuebecBlzrFan on Feb 10, 2009 7:35 PM PST up reply actions
That why I said Lopez over Oden for this season only.
But Lopez has been very good this year for a rookie, one of the better rookie centers in recent years.
"Hightide was the only "Yes" vote" - parkinglotj
Joel Freeland=Stud
I think Simmon's knowledge of any sport is overrated...
He’s like the crazy sports guy who makes entertaining opinions, but you can’t take him seriously.
The cake is a lie. Do not bake it.
by blzrfan on Feb 10, 2009 7:13 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
His buddy is even worse
He said he wouldn’t trade Caron Butler for Greg Oden.
25 points, 14 rebounds. 22 points, 6 rebounds. 17 points, 12 rebounds, and 6 blocks. 14 points and 14 point rebounds.
You get the point.
Oden
His performance this year may be a little underwhelming, but he’s still got all the tools to become what we envisioned when we drafted him. My biggest reason for not being worried with his performance at all is the fact that he had to take that year off, then immediately jumped into the best basketball league in the world. My J gets rusty if I don’t go to the gym for a month, I can’t even imagine how he felt trying to adjust to the speed of the League
by GhostFacePryzbilla on Feb 10, 2009 7:14 PM PST reply actions
Yeah...
And once the guy gets in good enough shape to stay out of foul trouble, he is instantly a top 5 rebounder in the league. The only thing stopping him now is his playing time.
Against the Knicks he showed that he will be a swat master eventually.
His FT shooting is on another level compared to Dwight. (His only problem in game is not relaxing, something he should learn. A breathing coach would help.)
Basically, we’re looking at a guy that in 2 years will be almost on par with Dwight on defense. His offense will remain to be seen, but Portland doesn’t really need him to drop 20+ a game either.
OK, I like Simmons (even bought his book)
and I listened to this podcast and they decided his per minute rebounding numbers were inflated because he got fouls “every 10 seconds” going over the back for every rebound. This shows that he hasn’t even watched Greg play this year. Has Greg ever been called for over the back? We all know that he gets his fouls trying to guard PG’s, NOT going for his rebounds. Once I heard them say that, they lost any chance they had for an honest, objective analysis.
By the way, I would love to know where they got the idea that nobody in the NBA would want Oden anymore. That seems like a totally ignorant statement to me, but maybe Ben and Dave would have better insight into that thinking. Is it possible that after seeing Oden have major knee surgery, sit out a year, then play half a season, that the rest of the League has already concluded that this kid is a bust? Would the Knicks think this (17pt 12reb 6blk)? How about the Bucks (24pt 15reb 2blk)? The Bobcats (14pt 14reb 3blk)?
Obviously these are just 2 guys trying to make bad jokes and get a bunch of Blazers fans stirred up. ( Simmons did mention that he thought most internet traffic came from Toronto and Portland)
Great point
The Big O has never fouled anyone on a rebound. He fouls 95% of the time either by sticking his leg into a dribbler on the perimeter following a pick-and-roll, or by leaning his arms into somebody attacking the rack.
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
I really wish we had some stat
about foul distribution (loose ball, defensive, charge, etc.), along with where on the court they took place, something like a shot chart, but for fouls. I noticed the exact same thing about them comparing rebound rates and his fouling. I really can’t remember a single instance where Greg got called for a loose ball foul.
That being said, until Oden starts either performing in nationally televised games, or puts up an absolutely monster stat line (a 20-20 or 30-15), this is going to be the national perception among non-scouts/basketball people. No one is going to get excited about a guy getting 17-12 in a game that no one outside of portland watches. However, guys like David Thorpe (who has been around basketball all their lives and teach it to pro players) are in love with Oden right now, so I’m not too worried that Bill Simmons hasn’t caught up to the wagon yet.
82games keeps track of some foul stats
Oden has 170 fouls so far this year. 15 are offensive (listed under the turnovers and ball handling section), and 109 fouls are “shoot fouls” (listed in the shot blocking section). I’m not sure exactly what qualifies as a “shoot foul” (is it only when a player is fouled while shooting, or is it any foul that leads to free throws?), but It seems like they constitute the majority of Oden’s fouls.
That was definatly written for ratings, I hate the east coast bias,,,,,,,
I try to help with everything," Fernandez said. "If the coach says go rebound, I go rebound. I work for the team.
""If I'm playing this game to get media and attention, I shouldn't be here," Aldridge said. "I'm here to play basketball, and do what I can do to help this team win."
hey hey hey
some of us dont have a choice! im doing my best to escape
It was "mascot night" at the Rose Garden, which apparently translates to a dozen inflatable versions of various NBA mascots being chased around the arena by Portland's "Blaze", which is some breed of rapist dog. -PostingandToasting
by GreatOden'sRaven on Feb 11, 2009 9:33 AM PST up reply actions
as I have said many time, I like Simmons
but his irrational way of analyzing Oden at this point is so aggravating.
Simmons has never liked Oden
He’s preached that since day one and was one of the first to jump on him when he went down. He know really wants to be right.
That being said I believe most Blazer fans have been overrating most of this squad.
Simmons forgot to mention that his analysis of Oden is based primarily on the way he walks...
RUDY > MJ
I always thought Oden was overrated
Lots of people were expecting him to be one of the greatest of all time and dominate right from the start. I thought that that was unrealistic, and Greg’s current level of offensive production and rebounding is about what I expected from him. I did think that he would have more of a positive impact on defense than he has so far, but part of that how he is being used rather than a problem with Greg himself.
It seems that some of the people who had unrealistically high expectations for Oden have become so disillusioned that he hasn’t live up to the ridiculous amount of hype he had, and are now swinging too far in the other direction. Complete bust? Marginal starter at best? Oden is already a serviceable starter. Look at Oden’s per minute stats and compare with other rookies. He is 3rd in PER among rookies right now (behind Marreese Speights and Kevin Love), which puts him ahead of highly touted rookies like Rose, Mayo, Beasley, etc. Oden’s production has been pretty good for a rookie, and it is unreasonable to think that other teams wouldn’t be interested in him.
by trk on Feb 10, 2009 7:28 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Dont agree about overated but certainly overhyped
I also think he is already a serviceable starter, he will probably make a few all star games too but his potential is still much higher… time will tell.
by QuebecBlzrFan on Feb 10, 2009 7:42 PM PST up reply actions
Oden may have deserved the hype earlier
But once he went down with that injury, people should have realized that his rookie year would be so so.
PER is a good tool for guys playing 35 minutes a game...
For guys with lower minutes, it’s not terribly telling of much.
would you say that's true of all "tools"
everyone I look at has somewhat similar stats…
http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers.php?year=2008-2009&mode=summary&sortnumber=21&sortorder=DESC&team=POR
Tools are good
But none can really tell the whole story and each can be influenced to make what we want a reality. Not saying I don’t still do it (see below) we all do.
If I understand it correctly, PER assumes a guy will keep up the same production over a period of time? This just isn’t possible. Look at Bayless. When Bayless was playing 5 minutes in a game the guy was all over the place going nuts. Now, at even 20 minutes a game, he is way more subdued. He has bursts of energy still, but he’s not crazy go nuts like he was. You simply can’t keep up that pace an entire game.
On a side note.
Rudy/Sergio/Outlaw/Zilla/Aldridge = +48
Rudy/Sergio/Outlaw/Zilla/Roy = -25
Start the Aldridge > Roy hype?!?
Usually players increase production with more time
It’s hard to play well when you are only in the game for a couple minutes at a time with long periods spent on the bench. Studies have found that when a bench player gets significantly increased playing time (due to other players being injured), in most cases their PER will go up as well.
Where was he in that column?
Maybe he will be in the print version
The cake is a lie. Trade the cake!
nowhere to be seen
I don’t think Simmons knows the NBA well enough to understand that rebounding is, indeed, important. I lost all respect for his knowledge when he claimed no teams want Oden. That’s insane.
by Cablinasian on Feb 10, 2009 10:06 PM PST up reply actions
It's a per minute stat...
That comment was hilariously off base. One of the major advantages of PER is that it DOESN’T emphasize how many minutes a guy gets.
PER takes fouls into account. If Oden weren’t averaging a foul every 3.9 seconds, his PER would be much higher.
He has one of the highest rebound rates in the league.
What would possibly ever in a million years be your rational for saying PER is only valuable when a guy averages 35+ minutes? Because that’s when PER most often jives with traditional stats and perceptions like PPG and RPG?
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
So Speights is better than Rose by stats?
I would take Rose over anybody from the rookies including Oden.
And Oden, once again, is a rookie, so non-stop fast break basketball is like fast-forwarding a song while he's trying to learn the lyrics.
Speights has played better than Rose this season
Rose’s long term potential is still greater.
Boomshakalaka
Maybe in per 36 minute stats
In no other way shape or form has he outplayed Rose.
Karma
by Sabonis4Ever on Feb 11, 2009 1:48 AM PST up reply actions
Well, I completely disagree
Speights, on a per minute basis, has been much more productive than Rose.
Boomshakalaka
Yeah we overrate him
But who cares if no other team want him? Good for us.
Amar'''''''e
04-05
26ppg, 9rpg, 1.6bpg, 2.36to in 36 minutes.
05-06
Knee explosion
06-07- First year back
20ppg, 9.6rpg, 1.3bpg, 2.83to in 33 minutes.
Minutes go down by 3
Scoring goes down by 6 (based on minutes should have dropped 2ish.)
Rebounding somehow goes up slightly
Turnovers goes up by .5, despite less minutes.
Blocks goes down slightly more than it should.
A good season overall, but not as good as 04-05.
07-08- Second year back
25ppg, 9rpg, 2.1bpg!, 2.2to
Scoring goes back up by 5 ppg, despite only 1 more minute.
Rebounding somehow drops back down to 9.
Blocks goes up by over 50% Getting his hops/timing back?
Turnovers go back down by .6, despite 1 more minutes.
Amare in 07-08 > Amare in 04-05 > Amare in 06-07. This was a guy who was already All-Star caliber and even he had trouble adjusting his first year back. His second year back he was walking destruction again.
Oden is a rookie. He is dealing with first year back from MFI issues AND rookie issues. Cut him some slack!
Too early
Let’s look at the END of 09-10 season and make our judgments then.
Rule #1 of nitpicking is to get it right.
I like Simmons, but they are talking with a perfectly healthy KD in mind and will change their stance on Greg once he starts putting up 25+ points and 15 rebounds against bad teams
Maybe the occasional 35 point game. Which is all Bynum ever did. His high scoring games came against teams like the Clippers with injury problems as Simmons admits.
Greg will likely have games like this next season, once he has put a whole off-season with training behind him (assuming of course he stays virtually completely healthy). Remember, he didn’t even train the whole off-season last year. Let me bring back his rehab schedule:
- He played his first one on one contact drills against Channing and Hill on August 6
- He played his first five on five practice on August 29
He basically came into training camp as a player coming off major surgery and in pretty bad shape in terms of weight and endurance. If he has one full season and one full off-season under his belt, he will first of all be in great shape come training camp and second can work a lot on his game over the summer. Last year he worked on a 10 foot baseline jumper a la Ewing that we rarely saw this season (I remember one against Detroit). But that will come. His hook shots are starting to fall. His post moves will get more automatic. His foul trouble could go down a lot with increased confidence, mobility and game awareness. It all falls into place. Have patience with the big guy.
Next season Greg will still not rank ahead of KD in Simmons’ trade value column (not many centers in it by the way) and far behind Duncan and Howard, but I’ll be damned if he doesn’t deservedly rank in the top 30-40 at least on a level with guys like Lopez, Biedrins and maybe even Bynum despite less experience.
P.S.: It was funny that they were praising Big Al like crazy, but completely forgetting that this guy doesn’t play a lick of defense, too, which they criticized for players that didn’t deserve to be in or higher up in the list. He is a rich man’s version of Zach with more class. I would be scared to build a team around him even before tearing his ACL.
The cake is a lie. Trade the cake!
Look
The vast majority of NBA GMs, in my opinion, would rather have Durant than Oden right now. Oden is a long way behind Durant. Durant is younger and is already an allstar level player— there would have been zero argument from me had he been given the last slot over David West. There is no guarantee Oden ever gets his full mobility back. Right now, Oden is a little bit better (on a per minute basis) than Brook Lopez (who is also younger than Oden). In other words, Greg is performing like a guy who projects as a quality starting Center for a long time, and potential multiple time allstar, but not like a once in a decade center.
If Oden is really at 60% of his pre-microfracture athleticism, and he is able to get it all back next year, then he has a chance to meet the pre-draft expectations and be a dominant player for a long time. Its understandable that other NBA fans don’t expect this to happen. I still have hope that it well.
Boomshakalaka
A majority, maybe. But a vast majority?
It depends on need.
Remember, Durant played like a dirty bag of laundry his rookie season, ROY trophy notwithstanding. He was a rookie and he had excuses. Now Oden’s in the same boat.
I doubt the vast majority of GMs would jump to the conclusion that because Durant in year two is better than Oden in year one (following microfracture), they’re prefer Durant.
Also, do you think the vast majority includes the Blazers? PTI addressed this the other day. Kornheiser gave 99% odds the Blazers would still prefer Oden. Wilbon gave 100% odds.
The reason is need. The Blazers still don’t need another guy chucking shots from the outside. B-Roy is that guy. The Blazers need a guy anchoring the middle and controlling the glass. Oden is still looking like that guy.
My guess is other teams have a similar need. Rebounding is the most overlooked stat in the game, scoring is the most overhyped. A lot of GMs are coming around to that realization.
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
by KP Corleone on Feb 10, 2009 10:03 PM PST up reply actions
I would need to have access to the Blazer trainers and doctors to fully answer that question
If they believe that Oden can still become that dominant player (I’m talking about his health and explosiveness here), then I agree Oden fits a Blazer need far better than Durant. No question about it.
Right now, though, to a GM that doens’t have the latest information on how likely it is that Oden will regain his full explosiveness, you are basically asking someone to choose between a guy who is Tracy McGrady at a minimum and possibly something much better… or Brook Lopez.
If you had asked me this question a month into this season, I would have been 100% in the Oden camp. I was not impressed in the least with Durant. With each passing game though, it becomes more and more apparent that PJ Carlisimo was doing an absolutely horrible job developing Durant.
Boomshakalaka
+1
I’ve been writing this since before we drafted GO.
We have plenty of scorers (Although I would like 3M & Blakey back),
we needed rebounding, interior intimidation & LOOOOOW post
& follow-up presence !!!! Watch out for GO post All-Star break. Will
he still be inconsistant ? Yes ! He’s a ROOKIE ! Why can’t people
understand that by itself ? It’s almost GO time !!!!
It's GO time !
Oden will be fine
several things will happen in the near future:
1. Oden will fully recover from his microfracture surgery. Should be fully good to go by the start of next season.
2. Oden will gain experience. He will play a complete season and some playoff games. This will happen by the end of this season.
3. Oden’s teammates will gain experience playing with him.
4. Kevin Pritchard will make trades and acquire players to mesh with Oden’s skillset. This should be done over the course of the next two seasons.
If his numbers don’t improve next year and the year after that, than I will be concerned. Right now, we have less than one seasons worth of games as a data point. If the trends are positive, he’s good. If they’re flat or they go down, we have a problem.
"It all depends on where his growth will come and we think his growth will come within us" -- Kevin Pritchard on Jerryd Bayless
2 years....
Thats how long you have to wait to see how well a player recovered from microfracture. If Oden looks like the same so so athlete next season, than you can start to make a case against him. His only goal for this season should be to stay healthy and keep learning. My money says he is a different player next year if he does stay healthy through the season and has a summer to prepare himself adequately….
knock knock knock
RUDY > MJ
It's not called "The BS Report" for nothing. What ev
Blazer's Edge Ambassador to The Dream Shake Blog
LMA Rocks and B-Rex ROARS!!
RRRRRRROOOOOOOWWWWWRRRRRRSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!
completely untrue
Simmons has written about how much he likes the Blazers and how much he likes watching them. It is true he’s been consistently down on Oden and he would very much like to be right about that. He has not shown anything to indicate he dislikes the team or its GM.
Boomshakalaka
I think the Sports Gal said that if she were to live anywhere else,
she’d live in Portland. Simmons has said plenty of good things about the new-look Blazers. But yeah, he is way way way in the Durant camp.
I also laughed
when they put Eric Gordon ahead of Tayshaun Prince. Simmons decides on a few guys he likes and goes with it.
by Cablinasian on Feb 10, 2009 10:14 PM PST up reply actions
Here's what he wrote in the season preview.
He wrote about the blazers in these 20 predictions for this season.
5. The 2009 Blazers will become the single most popular team in the history of the Internet.
These guys bring everything to the Internet bandwagon table: youth; likeability; a real excess of talent; foreign stars; a rabid fan base; an expiring contract for Trade Machine purposes (Raef LaFrentz, everybody!); rookie of the year dark horse and potential NBA heartthrob Rudy Fernandez (a cross between Paul Westphal and Antonio Banderas); a superb group of beat writers; multiple players who translate well to YouTube clips; a shrewdly run front office that spends its riches correctly (unlike everyone else); the whole “Will a Western rival pick up Darius Miles for 10 games just to screw their 2009 cap space?” subplot; a top three (Greg Oden, Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge) that ranks off the charts on the Good Guy Scale and might have broken the record for a professional sports team; the smart decision to split the 10-man rotation into two units and keep it that way (love it); the increasing probability of a Roy-Fernandez-Travis Outlaw-Aldridge-Oden crunch-time lineup (really love it); the ongoing “Will Oden ever be the guy we thought he would be?” and “Isn’t it a bad sign that a 20-year-old franchise center looks and runs like he’s 37?” debates; even the whole Duke/Rocky, “When Apollo died, a part of me died, too, but now you’re the one” dynamic with the disenfranchised Sonics fans who might jump to their side.
There’s just a lot going on with the 2008-09 Blazers. They were made for blogs and message boards and YouTube and losers like me who watch the NBA every night and everything else. Call ‘em the Portland Internets. And by the way, when I made my wish list for “Teams I Absolutely Have to See” for my Clippers games this year, the list shook out like this: Celtics, Lakers, Blazers, Cavs, Hornets, Heat, Suns, Knicks, Pistons, Rockets, Durant’s Future Former Team. Believe me, I can enjoy just about any NBA game in good seats. But those are the 11 teams I have to see in person at least once … and Portland ranked third on the list. What a turnaround. Let’s hope this paragraph isn’t the moment when it peaks.
shrug believe what you want but that seems pretty sincere to me.
And then of course there’s this column about how much he hopes he’s wrong about Greg.
by howlingfantods on Feb 11, 2009 1:19 AM PST up reply actions
It has felt like he is trying to say that so that he knock the Blazers without seeming too cold.
He is like the racist who says “Hey, I even have friends from that group I disdain, so what I have to say is reasonable!”
".. is gumby an alien?"
no he is just down on Oden
and up on durant it really only goes that far
It was "mascot night" at the Rose Garden, which apparently translates to a dozen inflatable versions of various NBA mascots being chased around the arena by Portland's "Blaze", which is some breed of rapist dog. -PostingandToasting
by GreatOden'sRaven on Feb 11, 2009 9:36 AM PST up reply actions
not at all
It was "mascot night" at the Rose Garden, which apparently translates to a dozen inflatable versions of various NBA mascots being chased around the arena by Portland's "Blaze", which is some breed of rapist dog. -PostingandToasting
by GreatOden'sRaven on Feb 11, 2009 9:34 AM PST up reply actions
Oden played one year of college ball without his right hand
Then sits out a year with MF surgery.
He is a big, and bigs take longer traditionally to develop.
QED: Oden might become all we thought he could, but it won’t be this year.
Oden will continue to get better every year unless he is struck by lightning again. Durant is a great scorer. But I am still Oden > Durant.
So I guess the question I have is, if you can take off your Blazer glasses for a second and try and be as objective as possible, is Oden producing like we expect a #1 pick to?
No, but then again he did have microfracture surgery. I thought he was progressing nicely up until a few weeks ago (around the time that the team’s defense went from mediocre to matador).
Is he still on track to be a dominate post player for years to come?
He’s behind schedule but has the potential, especially defensively. Offensively I think he has shown 18-20ppg potential but not 25ppg potential.
What is his ceiling/projection at this point? Servicable starter? 1-2 All star appearances? League MVP/Hall of Fame calibur player? What is your take?
He’ll be an all star center by 2012, and I’d put the over/under at eight appearances total (he’ll make it most years but not all years from age 23-34). I don’t think he’ll ever be league MVP but he might be all NBA once or twice, depending on the competition other than Dwight Howard, and maybe one Olympic appearance.
In other words, disappointing if you are expecting Bill Russell or Kareem, but more than enough to be a key piece for some championship runs during the next decade.
MLB2PDX!!! (someday...)
by The Cactus Leaguer on Feb 10, 2009 10:39 PM PST reply actions
Simmons Podcast
I enjoyed his podcast at first but got burned out on it because he drones on way too much about topics like the Real World and other stupid TV shows I couldn’t care less about, so I stopped listening to it.
MLB2PDX!!! (someday...)
by The Cactus Leaguer on Feb 10, 2009 10:41 PM PST reply actions
His dog died recently.
I think it’s karma’s way of getting back at him for doggin’ Oden.
"I would never die for my beliefs because I might be wrong." -Bertrand Russel
Microfracture surgery rehab takes a while.
Bill Simmons and his pal have no clue, Oden missed plenty of games at Ohio State from a broken hand and then learned to shoot with his left and still dominated.
Then he has the surgery and doesn’t play for a year, isn’t in real basketball shape when the season starts and is learning the NBA game without his explosiveness and not really getting any touches, because this is NOT his team, this is Brandon’s.
The Blazers are not a typical team that gets a number 1 pick, they are becoming a playoff team and their number 1 pick isn’t the “go to guy” like in other franchises, Greg just tries to play good defense and commits fouls, that gets him out of the game, which he will learn from and improve on in the next couple of years.
What Bill Simmons has to think about is "what if Greg doesn’t have any more injuries and gets his vertical leap back, timing on block shots, improves his amidextrous post moves, drops his turnover rate, and pushes his freethrow percentage up.
All those things are happening right now, with four months into his NBA career, so add two years to his experience and things look pretty scary.
People have to be patient, he’s a ROOKIE..
well, I have to admit I kind of agree with them.
I hope to damn hell that I’m wrong, but I’ve just never understood the Oden thing. I’ve watched almost all of his OSU games, including every march madness game, every summer league game, 90% of his rookie season so far, and I still don’t understand why he was the first pick in the draft. I’d have picked Durant over Oden in a heartbeat, and probably thought hard about it and swung for Horford over Oden once the measurements came out.
And again, I hope I’m wrong, but “trade value” column is about perceptions around the league. Outside of the portland bubble, I think Simmons is pretty right on about the consensus.
Hey, and I’m shocked Simmons doesn’t have Durant at #2.
by howlingfantods on Feb 11, 2009 12:50 AM PST reply actions
It's harder to be sure about talent these days
when young, good players are declaring for the NBA draft after one year of college. There were questions even about Tim Duncan, who stayed in college all four years. Some thought he was too soft for the NBA, if you can believe that. So it’s no surprise that debate rages about which players will succeed in the NBA when they seldom had enough time in college to prove themselves there.
Simmons is always wrong
I don’t think he’s ever been right about anything. Who cares what he thinks? Maybe 2 GM’s in the whole NBA would take Durant over Oden. Oden will become the greatest center in the history of the NBA with a fist full of rings, and Durant will have a lot of cool dunks on the ESPN top 10 plays of the day.
I like frogs.
Nah
Ben would rather have Oden have a fistful of rings with the Blazers than have Durant have a fistful of rings with another team.
Besides, Durant is already behind. He’ll spend his career putting up great numbers and desperately trying to get on a championship contending team. I see him having a similar career path to Nash, Kidd, Carter, Grant Hill, Barkley, and plenty of others.
I like frogs.
He just has to stick with his original point
As an avid reader of Simmons (I like his style more than really his substance) he LOVES the Blazers. He isnt high on Oden ONLY because he was and IS definatively in Durants camp. You know when you make a prediction and ALL you friends (readers) hear it, you have to stick with it until proven incorrect. He will admit when he is wrong as soon as Oden starts tearing it up. So we will have to wait until next year to hear his apologies. And yes he knows we are rabid and likes to stir us up. He has mentioned it more than once.
It was "mascot night" at the Rose Garden, which apparently translates to a dozen inflatable versions of various NBA mascots being chased around the arena by Portland's "Blaze", which is some breed of rapist dog. -PostingandToasting
by GreatOden'sRaven on Feb 11, 2009 9:39 AM PST reply actions
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