Rookies and Responsibility
by Dave on Feb 10, 2009 1:32 AM PST
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PrintThe recent flurry of conversation about Greg Oden (and, well, before him Jerryd Bayless, and before him Rudy Fernandez and before him Nicolas Batum and before him Sergio Rodriguez) reminded me of a common, wholly understandable misconception that I've been meaning to address. This isn't a new line of reasoning. It's been around since Sebastian Telfair and Martell Webster were rookies...longer, even, but it wasn't as pronounced when the team was good and the focus was winning playoff games instead of developing players. The misconception can be summarized in two sentences:
Fans and some educated observers argue that a player needs to be given playing time to develop his skills and confidence.
The reality of the NBA is that you have to develop your skills and confidence before you earn playing time.
The echoes of this argument should be evident to anyone who's followed the conversation surrounding any of our first-year players for the past couple of years. We've seen several iterations.
"Why don't we play more of a low-post isolation game so Greg can get touches and scores?"
"Why don't we run more so Sergio can use his gifts fully?"
"Why don't we start Jerryd and let him loose to score?"
As I said, these arguments are understandable on many levels.
First, we love the new and exciting. Drafting a highly-touted rookie and then not seeing him play, or even just getting isolated glimpses of him playing, is like getting a Ferrari that can hit 200 mph and only driving it through school zones. OK, it looks cool, but when do we get to open this baby up? And if we're not going to, why did we bother getting it? 15 mph is not what we had in mind when we saw it in the showroom! Knowing a guy has talent and potential but not seeing him able to display them is like having an itch that you can't scratch. That's no fun as a fan. This was doubly true in the years when our older players were, for the most part, dunderheads who weren't leading us anywhere and whom nobody bought a ticket to see.
That last part is a reminder that this team has just exited an era where player development was not only a major key, but really the only reason to watch the team. Let's face it, those 20-win seasons were a drag. If you were watching for the basketball, aesthetically or otherwise, you got ripped off royally. The reason we all watched was to see how many strides Martell made, how Travis harnessed his leaping ability, how soon Roy could make an impact. Under those rules it made total sense to argue for an approach that favored players over wins. Not getting Martell minutes and touches would scuttle the whole reason for the season.
I think it's obvious that times have changed. We now have more experienced players who are worth watching and who generate wins. We've gotten to the point--just this year in fact--that winning is the entire agenda. We have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs and taking the next step in our evolution towards greatness. Nevertheless it's hard to shake the instincts ingrained in us from observing the last five years of Blazer basketball. Our instinctive, passionate response is still, "Let the guys develop and do whatever is necessary to make that happen."
That isn't so simple anymore though. For one thing we have far more young, talented players than we did even two years ago. Peruse the first paragraph of this post and you'll find five guys who are either in their first year or getting their first serious dose of playing time. It's amazing all of those guys are getting regular rotation minutes. It's impossible to imagine designing a system that would play to all of their strengths simultaneously, especially when some of those strengths differ. The dump-it-in-the-post set that favors Oden rather wastes Sergio and Bayless. Hooking up Sergio and Rudy puts Batum in the weak-side corner. It's not entirely black and white but it's still evident that if we changed the offense every time one of our developing young players looked promising we'd be changing it every three games and shutting out the last guy for whom we changed it in the process.
This says nothing of our more experienced, steady players. Brandon Roy and Lamarcus Aldridge are far more proven and productive than any of the players we've named so far. They've shown what they're worth and what they can do. If the offense is going to feature anyone it should be them. Of course there's plenty of room for others and there are plenty of plays to try different things, but you have to protect, reward, and go to your best players first otherwise you're not only slighting those guys, you're sending a message to the team that something besides taking your best shot is taking precedence. There's no quicker way to scuttle a locker room or your team's production than that.
When considering making changes based on rookies and inexperienced players you also have to factor in the roller coaster ride they'll take you on. Unless you're talking a ready-made superstar like LeBron James your player is probably going to go through a number of stages. First he'll have the deer in the headlights look. Then he'll get comfortable and bust out with some really nice games. After he churns out two or three of those opposing scouts will start to note him in the game plan and defenders will start watching for his pet moves. With the defense having the book on him your rookie stops looking like a superstar and starts getting all deer-ish again. Now we're back to square one, learning, figuring out how to get those pet moves off anyway and developing new ones to keep defenders off-balance. After he gets that down and starts earning real minutes then comes physical fatigue and the rookie wall. This is another learning process. Providing he overcomes that and manages to shine anyway the defense gets even more intense. How do you deal with double-teams? To whom should you pass and when should you shoot? Your decision tree just grew four new branches. Back to school yet again.
At what point in this process do you, as a coach, start saying, "It's time to put some major emphasis on this guy and have everybody run plays for him"? If you're smart (and if you have any other viable alternatives) it's not until he's proven he's in the end steps. That's not to say you ignore him completely. But you're not going to tell your veteran, productive players to get this guy the ball no matter what because you know four games later they're going to do that and he's going to totally bork it. Then they're going to look at you like you're crazy for taking shots away from them and giving them to this unproven kid when this kind of regression happens 99 times out of 100.
This brings up the final point, somewhat philosophical but quite important. Nothing is ever given in this league. It has to be earned to be real. The players themselves tend to know and judge when somebody has earned enough respect to be fed the ball on a consistent basis. They know who Brandon Roy is. They know who Lamarcus Aldridge is. Brandon Roy has transferred a lot of respect to Travis Outlaw this season by getting him the ball in critical situations and people are beginning to know who Travis is. They're not sure who Oden is yet. He hasn't shown it on multiple nights against multiple opponents. They'll get him the ball, sure. But they're not going to feed him the ball until he earns their trust.
As soon as a coach steps in and says, "No...wait, just give him the ball so he can learn how to do it" both the coach and that player are going to lose all respect. Everybody who came up the normal way and had to fight for their place is going to say, "What makes this dude so special? I'm really good too. Why didn't I get that?" From that point on the player is the guy who got the silver platter treatment.
The coach can draw up the plays. Those plays can have plenty of options to go to that player. But until the player earns respect by demonstrating that he knows what to do with the ball when given it the coach cannot mandate that he be made a part of the fraternity. The player himself has to step up, call for it, and show it. When he makes the most of his small opportunities on a consistent basis he'll get larger ones and everyone will be on board with that. Giving him those larger opportunities--be they minutes, shots, or a starting role--before he's earned them makes everybody jump off the bus and usually dooms him to failure.
If you're wondering why we don't see a more Rudy-centric offense or why Oden doesn't get fed the ball 20 times per game in the post, this is the answer. The better way to put it would be why we don't yet see a Rudy-centric offense and why Oden doesn't yet get fed the ball 20 times. Those things will come but you cannot skip steps and have them come to fruition any more than you can over-water a seed and make it grow faster.
If you ask if I think Greg should be kept in the paint more, I am on the record as saying, "Yes!" I am also on record as saying he should establish strong position and demand the ball more down there. But even if those things happen you won't see fantastic production or a sweeping change in the offense in his favor until he plays as well against the Suns, Jazz, and L*kers as he does against the Knicks, Warriors, Bucks, and Wizards. You won't see them until he gives two months of amazing effort and production at a time instead of two games. That's no knock on Greg. This isn't an easy league, nor an easy process, to master. But it must be mastered if you want to make the kind of impact we expect him to make.
In a winning system you aren't given playing time to develop, you develop so you can get playing time. I'm willing to sacrifice a little rookie bling in order to make the Blazers a winning franchise. If the cake needs to bake that's fine, but don't be reaching in the oven grabbing handfuls of gooey batter and shoving them down your throat. You're just going to get burned.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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There is nothing I enjoy more than stumbling upon a new article on BE while doing homework. Sociology< Blazers.
I agree.
I might fail my economics midterm tomorrow.
by Nick Van Excellent on Feb 10, 2009 1:50 AM PST up reply actions
Do you go to SOU?
UCC? SWOCC? i noticed somewhere that you said you lived in Southern Oregon, aka my old stomping grounds, specifically Roseburg. NOT TRYING TO CREEP YOU OUT, JUST CURIOUS.
"I saw him in the face"
by RoodiePhirnandizz on Feb 10, 2009 1:57 AM PST up reply actions
That's us
Making the country stupider by corrupting college students one by one.
If this were the old days they’d have me drinking hemlock by now.
—Dave
if your education doesn't make you a better basketball analyst...
then what’s the point?
by LicketyBrindle on Feb 10, 2009 11:35 AM PST up reply actions
Trying to write a midterm paper right now
And where am I? Checkin BE. Still say it is the right play
"In general, I hate the snap judgments. I hate the rush to predict things. I hate the sports culture that can't think of anything to say unless it is predicting things. I dislike the over-hyping and the following angst-ridden crashes. I dislike the overdrawn, over-simplified, nuance-free generalizations that sprout like weeds over the conversational landscape because accuracy and fairness and truth don't fit as neatly between commercials or quote as easily around the water cooler."
-Dave
ポートランド・トレイルブレイザーズ & 南カルフォルニア大学 トロージャンズ Fan
by Sexual Tyrannosaurus on Feb 10, 2009 5:49 AM PST up reply actions 8 recs
recd
Blazer's fan since '84, Spurs fan when they are not playing Portland.
↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → B A
by HurraKane212 on Feb 10, 2009 6:24 AM PST up reply actions
rec'd
but why is the girl wearing clothes? It’s the internet.
Ah right. BE is a “family friendly” site. My bad.
Honor Alaa Abdelnaby.
First in the NBA. At least alphabetically
also since it's the internet
the dinosaur and airplanes should be unclothed too
Honor Alaa Abdelnaby.
First in the NBA. At least alphabetically
I believe that dinosaur is supposed to be Jerryd about to eat some cake
ポートランド・トレイルブレイザーズ & 南カルフォルニア大学 トロージャンズ Fan
by Sexual Tyrannosaurus on Feb 10, 2009 8:04 AM PST up reply actions
Well said and timely
Amazing as these guys show there is a lot of seasoning to come. Moving Zach was one big step in the development of LaMarcus (and the culture) so perhaps there have been some nudging along as well. But it is fun to watch the development.
whoo, Katy bar the door! - Maurice Lucas anticipating Greg Oden's development
I'm still awake?
way to paint a bigger picture as usual dave, your specialty.
yeah i have home work to do sometime before class tomorrow too, sleep needs to happen soon, must stop, typ… ing…
Don't Redeactivate Shavlik Randolph
Just finished an essay on the Hundred Years' War.
I’m glad i can go to bed with Greg Oden in mind rather than Edward, the Prince of Wales. thank you Dave.
"I saw him in the face"
by RoodiePhirnandizz on Feb 10, 2009 1:59 AM PST reply actions
isn't that
the war that wasn’t a war and didn’t last 100 years, but they still call it that neway?
I want to do a paper on the 100 years war and fill it with printouts of LOLcats invading the north coast of France on otters.
Honor Alaa Abdelnaby.
First in the NBA. At least alphabetically
hahaha yes
it was more of a series of raids and a few large battles mixed in between periods of peace.
"I saw him in the face"
by RoodiePhirnandizz on Feb 10, 2009 1:42 PM PST up reply actions
Ed PW
could totally take Greg Oden. Killer outside shot and a crazy vertical.
Put that on your term paper.
by LicketyBrindle on Feb 10, 2009 9:51 AM PST up reply actions
Totally.
The Black Prince has mad hops (for all you non-history buffs out there, he really was known as the Black Prince, i’m not just being racist.)
"I saw him in the face"
by RoodiePhirnandizz on Feb 10, 2009 1:40 PM PST up reply actions
Oh man i know.
the English longbowmen destroyed the French. they were much too hasty.
"I saw him in the face"
by RoodiePhirnandizz on Feb 10, 2009 8:33 PM PST up reply actions
Yes Dave well said
It’s also a great argument for why putting 3 to 4 rookies on a team doesn’t always work.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
I am the stone that builder refused..I am the visual...The inspiration..That made lady sing the blues....I'm the spark that makes your idea bright.....The same spark that lights the dark....So that you can know your left from your right...I am the ballot in your box....The bullet in your gun...The inner glow that lets you know...To call your brother son....The story that just begun...The promise of what's to come...And I'm 'a remain a soldier till the war is won....
Great Dave
You keep putting knowledge in my brain. You always see the big picture.
But I’m still gonna keep saying Greg should get the ball more.
Karma
Well Stated, especially this quote:
The coach can draw up the plays. Those plays can have plenty of options to go to that player. But until the player earns respect by demonstrating that he knows what to do with the ball when given it the coach cannot mandate that he be made a part of the fraternity. The player himself has to step up, call for it, and show it. When he makes the most of his small opportunities on a consistent basis he’ll get larger ones and everyone will be on board with that. Giving him those larger opportunities—be they minutes, shots, or a starting role—before he’s earned them makes everybody jump off the bus and usually dooms him to failure.
Basic idea I get from this is maturity and leadership. Some players on Portland still need daddy to hold their " * " every time down the court. In fact, the way they play is by looking down to see if daddy is holding it.
People here can blame Nate and his “system” for ruining the confidence of players, but this is nonsense. Players have responsibility to communicate, call for the ball, rotate, set screens, move their feet on defense etc. Not everything needs to be placed on the coach. The coach instructs, the players decide. This decision making capability is furnished by players growing up into their roles on the team and serving the team in that capacity.
nate doesn't seem to get mentioned here as a coach of the year candidate
but no one in modern nba history has done this well with so young a team.
ignacio
That .500 team
was also the the third youngest team in NBA history and if you’d removed the players that weren’t even playing or playing simple minutes…
The goal is not to be better, the goal is to be the best.
Then that's the real achievement :-)
Take a .500 ballclub that is that young and whose two main players are second year guys.
-Add a year of development to those two
-Add a year of development to the rest of your young team (Even the “old” guys like Blake/Joel have improved quite a bit.)
-Add a #1 and #9 pick, and a #27 pick who by all rights should have been a top 10 pick. (Batum was also a solid sleeper.)
Is it impressive that we are winning with all this youth? Very.
Is it a surprise that we are winning even with all the youth? Not really.
Ummmmm....having a .620 record at the break
with rookies accounting for 30% of the minutes played (and that % is increasing with Blake out) is not a surprise? Maybe not in the land of inflated Blazer expectations, but in the real world of hte NBA…..that is HUGE. Amazingly HUGE.
by antediluvian on Feb 10, 2009 9:27 AM PST up reply actions
I will expand on my thought process a bit then
1. Before the season, a lot of analysts had Portland finishing 6 or 7 in the West. According to Jscot’s sched ahead, this means people predicted Portland to win 49 games. Granted, before the season I think people figured the 6/7 spots would be 52-53 wins. Injuries and some underperforming has lowered this some.
So Portland was expected to be playing almost as good as they are. If we can get hot and win 55 games, then we’re far exceeding expectations.
2. People expected Portland’s rookies to play quite a bit. I think Oden was expected to get more minutes than he did, which is part of the whole “underperforming” issue. People also knew that Rudy was NBA ready and would grab 25-30 a night. Conservatively, people expected these two to get 50 minutes.
Also, a lot of people expected Bayless to get the backup job and some even said starting job. I don’t think anyone figured he’d get DNPs to start the season. Even at a rookie 10 minutes a night you could expect us to play our rookies 60.
Finally there is Batum. Once Webster went down, the natural assumption would be that Batum backs up Outlaw. Even if Outlaw played 38mpg at small forward and Frye backed up LA at PF (initial plan), Batum would still grab 10 minutes at the backup SF spot. This puts up at 70 minutes per game.
30% of 240 minutes is 72 minutes.
So 1. Our success wasn’t too shocking and 2. Our youth playing minutes wasn’t too shocking.
The fact that Portland is winning with this young team is completely awesome.
However, it is not too surprising.
Wow
So many people writing papers…
I just revised one for my roommate.
P.S. Good post Dave, as always.
Dave, the cake is a lie.
ポートランド・トレイルブレイザーズ & 南カルフォルニア大学 トロージャンズ Fan
by Sexual Tyrannosaurus on Feb 10, 2009 5:51 AM PST reply actions
I pretty much disagree all around.
Nothing helps a player learn more than playing time and touches, practice can only show what a player is capable of, but he has to play and get touches against real NBA defenses to learn how to be effective. I don’t believe and LMA and Roy would be angered by Nate asking the team to give Oden 10-15 touches down low each game, especially once Nate points out how it would help the team, (Greg would be more active on Defense, the opponent would foul more, and the Blazers would get more easy shots) even more so they would understand once this team goes to the playoffs and sees that almost every team in them will do this same thing.
The whole point of drafting Oden was to give this team an inside presence on both ends, and that starts on offense, because as with more rookies, when Greg gets going on offense, his defense picks up. And it is not like getting Oden those shots would decrease from LMA’s or Roy’s, those two should both be getting 15+ a game as well.
Look, I understand Greg is a rookie, and is going through everything a rookie does, he needs to get better at bringing his energy to the court every game, he needs to improve his footwork, and he needs to continue to stay away from bad fouls, but his game as of today, could be extremely helpful to the Blazers if they would only give him the ball.
Just some facts
Usage rates amoung this years rookie bigs:
1. Beasley 25.1
2. Anthony Randolph 22.1
3. Roy Hibbert 20.7
4. Marreese Speights 20.5
5. Joe Alexander 18.4
6. Brook Lopez 18.2
7. JaVale McGee 17.9
8. Kevin Love 17.8
9 Jason Thompson 17.7
10. Kosta Koufos 17.2
11. Ryan Anderson 17.0
12. Greg Oden 16.9
Usg Usage Rate is the number of possessions a player uses per 40 minutes. Usage Rate = {[FGA + (FT Att. x 0.44) + (Ast x 0.33) + TO] x 40 x League Pace} divided by (Minutes x Team Pace)
This is basically how many times a player is involved in a play on the offensive end of the floor. The fact that these other rookie big men see the ball more than Greg when they are in the game is ridiculus, and is a failure of our teams coaching staff.
Aside from Beasley
those other eleven don’t have a Broy, LMA and Thrilla on their team. Usage is another great stat. Irrelevant when comparing apples and oranges. in this case oranges and tangerines.
by keepfryealive on Feb 10, 2009 8:48 AM PST up reply actions
All those guys are on crap teams
They don’t have a Roy and an Aldridge to share the ball with.
I like frogs.
The teams they are on don't matter
Most of these rookies are playing less than Oden, yet when they get into the game they are used more.
the teams they are on DO matter.
unless you’re really wanting to argue that Brandon Roy and Lamarcus Aldridge are too involved in the offense.
Greg is a third option on offense. Most of the other guys on that list are first or second options.
by LicketyBrindle on Feb 10, 2009 10:01 AM PST up reply actions
riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight
1. Beasley 25.1 – is the 3rd option maybe 2nd if you push it.
2. Anthony Randolph 22.1 – is at best the 5th or 6th option on the Warriors
3. Roy Hibbert 20.7 – is at best the 5th or 6th option on the Pacers
4. Marreese Speights 20.5 – is at best the 5th or 6th option on the 76ers
5. Joe Alexander 18.4 – is at best the 6th or 7th option on the Bucks
6. Brook Lopez 18.2 – is the 3rd option on the Nets
7. JaVale McGee 17.9 – is at best the 7th or 8th option on the Wizards
8. Kevin Love 17.8 – has been the 4th option on the Wolves, (until AL got hurt)
9 Jason Thompson 17.7 – is at best the 6th or 7th option on the Kings
10. Kosta Koufos 17.2 – w/o Boozer he is still the 7th option at best
11. Ryan Anderson 17.0 – 8th option maybe.
12. Greg Oden 16.9 – is used like the 6th option, eventhough he is the most efficient offensive player the Blazers have, yes better than Roy.
we're defining "option" differently.
the way I’m looking at it, there can only be 5 options, because there are only five guys on the floor.
the way you’re looking at it takes into account the whole team – as in, given the 12 guys no your team, rank them according to who you want taking the game winning shot.
so let me try again. most of those guys don’t play with the starting five. When they are on the floor, they are, most of the time, the first or second offensive option. I would guess that if you ran Ike or Channing’s usage numbers, they might be higher than Oden’s, because they play garbage time and get the ball a lot. Does that mean they are being used better?
Probably, if Oden was playing with the second unit, his usage numbers would go up. Is that the right move? Would that mean we were using him better?
It still comes down to the same thing: in order to use Greg Oden more and better, you have to take the ball out of the hands of Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge. Do you think those guys are too involved in the offense?
by LicketyBrindle on Feb 10, 2009 10:43 AM PST up reply actions
I agree with you
I think the real reason Greg is not being used is that the team is sacrificing the more important long term goal (Greg’s development) for a less important short-term goal (making the playoffs). Nate feels pressure to make the playoffs. Also, it’s tough to ask guys like Roy and Aldridge to sacrifice wins and the playoffs for Greg’s development, even though it’s the right thing to do.
by keephopealive on Feb 10, 2009 9:27 AM PST up reply actions
that is possible
very possible infact. I want the Blazers to make the playoffs just as much as the next fan, however I don’t want to relive the 5(? I think it was 5) straight years of 1st round exits. To succeed in the playoffs the Blazers need more easy scores and those come closer to the rim, Greg gives the team those, plus much more when he gets shots.
I actually think
giving Oden more touches inside the paint, will INCREASE the Blazers’ chances of making the playoffs. So really they can achieve 2 goals with the same strategy.
I mostly agree
When it comes to 98% of rookies who come into this league. However when you get that rare individual (usually the number 1 pick) that everyone knows should be a potential superstar then you have to play him and you have to integrate him. Name me more than a couple of #1 picks who haven’t come in and played a lot of minutes immediately. Here’s the list:
Rose – 36.9 Minutes
Bargnani – 25.1 Minutes (he’s one of the exceptions, this was a weak draft and everyone knew this)
Bogut – 28.6
Howard – 32.6 – 19 years old
James – 39.5
Ming – 29.0
Kwame – 14.3 (The other exception -19 and straight out of high school – this wasn’t a sure thing)
Martin – 33.4
Brand – 37.0
Olowakandi – 28.4 (yes a bust, but he still was integrated immediately and given the opportunity)
Duncan – 39.1
Iverson – 40.1
Joe Smith – 34.4
Glenn Robinson – 37.0
Webber – 32.1
O’Neal – 37.9
L.Johnson – 37.2
Coleman – 35.2
I stopped looking after Coleman.
Greg Oden – 23.0. Other than Kwame he plays less than any other #1 pick in the last 19 years.
Yes I know he is coming of surgery. Yes I know fouls are an issue. But really? Do we not think he is as good as we and everyone thought? Is there any center on this list other than O’Neal who we don’t think Greg has as much or more potential?
And to the point that he has to earn it, while I agree to a point here as well, don’t you think Brandon and Aldridge know that to get to where they want to get (championships I hope) that they need to integrate Greg? If not then maybe they aren’t the character guys we think they are. I don’t think this is the case. Will they get frustrated if they lose a couple of games integrating Greg? Probably. But if they look at the big picture it doesn’t matter, nor should it.
Anyway that’s my take.
"I saw him in the face" Sergio's quote on the latest alley-oop to Rudy.
Few of those players
were drafted onto a team that already had a player in their position the quality of Joel.
Most were drafted onto bad teams that were weak at their position. There was no question about who should start and be integrated, because there really wasn’t anyone else.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
Thought about that as well
But is .500 all that good of a record? Duncan had Robinson and could have been brought along slowly. I know you said most, but there are always exceptions. Greg isn’t worthy of an exception?
And while I appreciate Joel and all he does, he never will be nor should he be considered in the same class as Oden. If he is then we made a bad draft choice.
"I saw him in the face" Sergio's quote on the latest alley-oop to Rudy.
by blazermaniac32 on Feb 10, 2009 7:29 AM PST up reply actions
Right mostly
Duncan could have been brought along slowly, but he was much more NBA ready, because he’d played more college. He was ready to earn it right away.
You are right and wrong about Joel. Right now, he is better than Greg. Even by the end of this season, I don’t think that will be true.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
Dunno about better
Greg and Joel do better against different teams. The biggest issue is that right now Joel seem to thrive against the better teams whereas Oden is better at crushing the weaker teams. Joel does get the edge here.
I’m okay with this for now. At the beginning of the year Greg couldn’t dominate anyone. 50 games in he is dominating trash teams. Hopefully in another 50 games he is dominating mediocre teams and in another 50 he can start dominating good teams. (That’d be right towards the end of next year, when we want this team to start getting real good.)
I'm with jscot on that
Joel is a vet. Vets can make up for lack of pure athletisism, by anticipating other teams offense. Thats why Joel does so much better on D. Offense wise, even awkward, and stumbling, Greg offers more to the Blazers than Joel. (except for setting good picks, why is that so hard?)
Setting picks
Players are in too much of a rush to start the roll. This kind of defeats the purpose since even though you get an earlier start on the roll, the other team ran right through your pick anyway…
Another possibility is that some guys might not like the contact! This doesn’t apply to Oden though.
Finally, the pick and roll when run to perfection requires excellent timing. Most of our guys don’t have that yet.
We have players that
set good picks, but most of our guards don’t wait for the pick to be set, even Roy.
yeah...
I don’t think he gets enough credit for this. Pryz’s defensive IQ is off the charts. I love to see him directing traffic out there or barking at B-Rex after a broken rotation. I just wish there was a way to get him into the game with Oden.
(yeah, I know, we did that twin towers thing once, and it worked, but we’ve never done it since.)
by LicketyBrindle on Feb 10, 2009 10:04 AM PST up reply actions
Most #1 picks
go to teams that are terrible. The fact is, the Blazers are in the middle of a playoff run, (which IMO is the best lesson these boys can learn early on) and on some nights, Joel gives the Blazers the best chance of WINNING. Thats the ultimate goal. Thats the best thing these rooks can learn this year. How to handle pressure, big games, and high expectations. Foot work, team defense, and half court execution can be worked on this off season.
Our record over the last 33 games last year
12-21. That’s not so good. Yes we are winning now, but is it fools gold?
"I saw him in the face" Sergio's quote on the latest alley-oop to Rudy.
by blazermaniac32 on Feb 10, 2009 7:31 AM PST up reply actions
No
but not pure gold, either. Kind of a mix of gold and a lot of mud and blechy stuff, but enough gold to know we’ve found the right stream and are digging in the right places.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
An old man told me when I first moved here
There is still plenty of gold around here but there’s so much damn dirt mixed with it
by southern oregon on Feb 10, 2009 8:31 PM PST up reply actions
Lots of different factors
Last year we beat teams early because nobody new what to expect early on. Once they got to properly scout us, we mellowed out. Also, the schedule at the end was tougher last time around.
I agree
We are in a playoff race as of right now, very few of the others were or the players in question were so good that they kept getting minutes and making the team more competitive (I think that was the case with Duncan). I think we give Oden about the right amount of minutes to help the team and to help him develop.
Using both Oden and Joel is a very sound approach in my opinion.
by QuebecBlzrFan on Feb 10, 2009 7:58 AM PST up reply actions
What's more important?
Greg playing and looking like crap, or the blazers winning, learning how to winning, and savoring the win?
Nate is playing to win. Oden can develop or not. He’s greatly improved but he still has major flaws that will cost us games if we toss him out there.
Personally, I’m ready for the team to win and if they don’t win and if they don’t make the play-offs, you can be there will be issues in that locker room.
The goal is not to be better, the goal is to be the best.
The Blazers
won’t win if Oden doesn’t develope. Oden realizing his potential is what makes PDX a possible champsionship contender in a few years, personally I would rather win then than win now.
they are winning
regular season games, but if they play this way in the playoffs they would be lucky to win 1 game.
take a step back...
or go watch some tapes from the beginning of the season.
Oden IS developing. And at a pretty rapid pace, if you ask me.
by LicketyBrindle on Feb 10, 2009 10:06 AM PST up reply actions
but this is just a measure of MINUTES played.
Does anybody think Nate or anybody on the coaching staff is really happy with the number of minutes Greg is playing?
Greg’s minutes are based on one thing: foul trouble. He gets pulled when he collects two in the first, three in the second, four in the third. Reliably. When he doesn’t, he plays extended minutes.
One can argue that he should be left in there and allowed to foul out in the second quarter, if that’s what happens. But I think Nate is right in believing that Greg learning to control himself and not collect fouls in essential – perhaps more essential than anything else – to his development right now. And he’s getting better.
And besides, I don’t remember any of those other #1 picks being allowed to foul out in the second quarter.
by LicketyBrindle on Feb 10, 2009 10:50 AM PST up reply actions
fouls are "an issue"?
I think you are understating the role that Greg’s foul troubles have played in all of this.
If you want to talk about “usage rates”, like the above post, and claim that Oden’s not getting the ball enough when he’s on the court—maybe we have some room to talk there.
But as far as minutes go, I feel like he’s getting plenty of minutes in all of the games where he stays out of foul trouble. If you took away the games where he ended up with 5 or 6 fouls and averaged out his minutes in the remaining games I have no doubt it would close the minute gap quite a bit between the #1 overalls. Factor in that almost none of those other #1’s were added to a team with as much talent as this team, plus the fact that Oden is still coming back from a surgery that we know can take almost two years to fully recover from, and I say we should have no complaints about his minutes as far as Nate’s decision-making is concerned. It’s Greg’s decision-making that is limiting his minutes and he’s going to get better and better at staying on the court.
One point I didn't see
in your great article is that playing multiple rookies can hamper everybody’s development. I found it frustrating when, before his Knicks game, so many were calling for Bayless to just be given the minutes so he could develop. This is a team game, not individuals working in a vacuum. Bayless would certainly make more mistakes than Blake or Sergio and those mistakes would mean fewer learning experiences for Oden. Oden making mistakes hampers Batum’s development, etc.
In other words, mistakes based on inexperience cause an exponential, rippling effect on team development. It’s not additive.
I think Nate has done a briliant job of maintaining the optimal balance of playing time for player development as well as producing more wins from season to season.
Spanish Main: The point of departure for enormous wealth in the form of gold, silver, gems, spices, hardwoods, hides, alley-oops, assists and three pointers.
Dave, Totally OT
But your Fair Warning fanpost got recommended to the top, and is about to be zapped off the top, even though it is only 18 hours old. That seems to be fairly typical these days, a great fan post like Blazer1342 did with color-coded charts got 23 recs but was gone from the top 5 within 24 hours, which tends to zap discussion. That one on Bedge taking over the coaching also got pushed out in about a day, even with an all-time rec record.
Thought I would suggest again increasing the number of recs required to get into the top 5.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
Just the other day some junky posts stayed up there for days
The flurry of fanposts will go down after the trade deadline.
I like frogs.
Perhaps
but the top five aren’t trade posts.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
The Bayless one pretty much is
It’s another fanpost about how great he is and shouldn’t be traded. Dave’s post was written because of trade posts. That’s 2 out of the 5.
I like frogs.
If Dave was going to talk about trade posts
he should have done so in the trade drawer.
Did you flag him?
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
Not so fast...
(sorry for my english, I’m French)
If you look at the 25 best scorers among rookies, Greg Oden is currently ranked twelfth.
In this ranking, 16 players attempt more shots than him, despite the fact that GO has the best shooting percentage (55%)
Is this just a problem of Playing Time?
No.
Per 36 minutes, 22 rookies attempt more shots than Greg Oden. Among them, you’ll find Louis Amundson, Mbah-a-mout and … Nicolas Batum. (By the way, you will notice that 2 of our starters are almost useless in offense. If you want to have a predictable offense, that’s a good start).
Taking into account the number of FT attempted per game (divided by 2 to get the equivalent of a shoot), Oden is still twelth among the rookies. Of the 11 rookies who have a bigger offensive production, there are Brook Lopez (NJN), Mar Gasol (Mem), Jason Thompson (Sacto), Mario Chalmers (Miami), Rudy Fernandez (Por) and Kevin Love (Minny ). It can’t be serious.
And don’t forget that most of Oden attempted shots come with offensive rebounds. Since the opening night, Oden has attempted 256 shots in 44 games (1010 minutes), which equals 5.8 shots per game or 1 shot every 4 minutes. He also took 128 offensive rebounds. If you consider that only 50% of his offensive rebounds were followed by a shot attempt, this means that Oden (outside of shots following an offensive rebound), is given only 4 shots per game. That’s ridiculous. Oden is not just a common rookie, he is the number 1.
I understand that a player, and especially a rookie, has to earn some respect. But the way the Blazers are playing right now isn’t right. When you are lucky to have a dominant big man, you first establish an inside game and then you start jump-shooting. That’s the way BBall has always been played. I don’t understand why this team is so reticent to put the ball in Oden’s hands. I just don’t get it.
I don’t want to hurt any of you, guys, but here is a stat that you will probably love : in january, Oden attempted less shots that Kevin Durant in… 4 games.
Wow! Maybe they will try to feed GO more in the next 2 games.
With a few days to prepare for the OKC game maybe Nate will try to have GO more involved in the offense. He needs to be able to handle the tempo though as the opponents will probably play small and fast.
by QuebecBlzrFan on Feb 10, 2009 8:56 AM PST up reply actions
I totally agree
Although I am not sure what you meant by that last line…
Greg needs more shots, it is crazy that he only gets 6 a game, 10 should be the minimum as long as he is staying out of foul trouble. The problem is, even when he does stay out of foul trouble and is able to get his minutes, the team still doesn’t feed him.
Once
Blake and Martell are back in the line-up (assuming no trades) I think that will help Greg a lot. I don;t think teams are to worried about Sergio’s, or Batum’s outside shots. Blake and Web, will give them something out there to think about, and open up the inside. I hope.
Greg unfortunatly fumbles 2-3 shot attempts a game away, and gets called for travelling a couple more times. Gregs getting the rock. Its not Greg or the teams fault its just Oden getting his timing back.
I try to help with everything," Fernandez said. "If the coach says go rebound, I go rebound. I work for the team.
""If I'm playing this game to get media and attention, I shouldn't be here," Aldridge said. "I'm here to play basketball, and do what I can do to help this team win."
you are exaggerating
Greg averages 1.5 turnovers per game,
It's not that easy...
In his last 4 games, Oden played against Hilton Armstrong (6-11), Erick Dampier (6-11), Nick Collison (6-10) and David Lee (6-9)… He attempted only 26 shots, made 14 of them (10 offensive rebounds) and had only 5 To.
In his last 4 games, Brook Lopez attempted 47 shots (13 offensive boards) and had 7 To…
I’m not saying that Oden is THE solution. I just want you to understand that this team needs to get the big man involved. This will facilitate the work of his teammates (not to mention the one of his coach). We all noticed that GO is more active when he scores early points. And that’s understandable : Oden is a young player who used to dominate the game. He needs to be confident, he needs to touch the ball, to hustle, dunk, score, being trapped, find the open man… He will probably collect some To and miss some easy hook-shots but it will keep Blazers’ opponents focused on the big guy. This is priceless.
Give Oden something like 9 to 12 shots and see what happens. I still think that an inside shot will always be better and more efficient than a shot against the clock.
yeah...that's not true.
I’ve definitely seen Greg handle more bad passes than fumble good passes away.
Again, I think we need to factor in the quality and frequency of the passes he’s getting. This whole team is learning how to play with a legitimate low post scoring option. It’s pretty new.
by LicketyBrindle on Feb 10, 2009 1:29 PM PST up reply actions
your english is outstanding
I wish everyone wrote as well as you do. – Elgin
Since when do we need to ponder to froth? - jscot
Thank you very much. I try to do my best... ;)
Who’s the guy on your avatar? Elgin Baylor? I thought it was Jackie Robinson… But it’s a very small picture.
Portland is looking to do that more
Watch the recent games. Instead of going exclusively to LA early on like we did earlier in the season, we now go to LA and Oden early on. This is part of the reason why Roy doesn’t seem to show up early, the other part being that he completely fails at creating offense without having the ball. (How lost would the other team be if Roy did a back door cut on a post up to Oden.)
So much to develop, not enough time/balls to go around
Part of Nate’s biggest challenge is the success of KP. I’m under the feeling that last year’s .500 ball club was a happy result for the year. Not necessarily a happy finish thanks to the 13 game streak and hot start. However; a positive season to build from. Add to that .500 team injuries, 4 rookies and tough western conference. Very few expected to be fighting for a top 4 seed in the league.
This team is an unprecedented team for the NBA in more ways than one. Nate has done awesome with the young crew and mix of injurie’s he’s been dealt.
There simply is too much talent and not enough to go around. You can’t have it all
roy start taking over from the get go
develop a stating 3
develop serior and bayless (thank you Blake, hope the time off was nice)
feed GO
feed LMA
expect great perimeter defense from 19-23 year olds
expect fluent team D from a team with 4 new guys getting a % of minutes
There simply are too many phases of this team that “need to be developed”. If I hear another Nate has ruined his confidence again comment I’m going to vomit in my mouth. The guys who are going to develop are going to step up and take it. If not the other man will be thrown in.
Nate has shown that he isn’t trying to crush confidence, but win with the weapons he has. Developed or not. If Sergio is having a bad game, Bayless gets run. If Batum is making the 3 and playing his solid D with no turnovers. Then he makes it past the 7 minute mark. If Greg is doing well foul wise and rookie mistake wise, Joel gets a break.
This team is farm from what it can be, but miles ahead of what we expected them to be. Lets enjoy watching the cake bake.
One must
be thankful that our rebounding has improved much from last year!!
by hotstuffdb22 on Feb 10, 2009 9:27 AM PST up reply actions
No number 1 is everything please.
This includes pace adjusted/non adjusted. I want to be rank 1 in the NBA in pace, but also give up the least non pace adjusted points per game.
BTW
To do that we’d need to top Golden State’s pace, while allowing right around 90ppg. To do THAT we’d need a 93 defensive reating per 100. (Celtics lead nba at 102.2)
Is this too much too ask? Nope, I want it all!
Can I ask for an exception?
I don’t want to be #1 in turnovers….
Or blocked attempts….
Or personal fouls….
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
I don't think this is an either-or
For now I can see that there are growing pains, I think our oldest starter is Blake which means for the last few weeks we haven’t had any starters older than 26, would that be correct? So it’s to be expected that some things don’t click yet. These are not seasoned vets yet.
But as to the issue of running an offense with so many weapons (feeding the post, letting Bayless/Roy attack, freeing up the long range shooters) it’s very simple. We just have to look at the Model Team of the NBA, the San Antonio Spurs. I am not a Spurs fan, I think Duncan is a total stiff and Parker is way too smug for me. But consider their offense.
They constantly feed the post. Duncan can usually get 30-15 a night with that little bank shot of his. Parker slashes to the basket all the time and scores with ease, as does Ginobili. Mike Finley and Roger Mason are usually free, due to Duncan’s post presence, to knock down threes.
It seems like they do all of these things simultaneously but they really just take turns a lot or adapt to the situation. Both of the secondary options are based on Duncan drawing the defense in on himself. Parker can find room and the shooters have less defense stacked against them.
They do this all with ONE good big man. We have three with two usually on the floor at the same time. If we say that Duncan = Oden in that style, then they have nobody remotely in the league of Lamarcus Aldridge. I don’t even know who plays center for them? Is it Oberto? See, I don’t know his name, that’s how unimportant he is.
Most teams have barely one reliable big man, we have three. We can attack the basket from long-range, mid range, and at the post from both sides if we want. Duncan can only attack from one side at a time.
These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others. -Groucho Marx
THAT'S IT! I finally figured it out...
Dave is really KP! Who else could come up with:
“In a winning system you aren’t given playing time to develop, you develop so you can get playing time.”
And don’t try and shake us off your trail with the all-too-obvious follow-up of:
“If the cake needs to bake that’s fine, but don’t be reaching in the oven grabbing handfuls of gooey batter and shoving them down your throat. You’re just going to get burned.”
I’m not fooled a bit, KP! I mean, “Dave!” No, I mean “KP!!!”
"Easy for you to say coach, you don't have Big Greg rolling up on your blind side about to lay the wood to you." - Batum
And one more thing...
I know this (somewhat) goes against everything else I’ve said in this thread about Oden’s usage in games, but one thing I’m noticing in games is that we don’t really have passers who know how to get the ball to him in the post.
With LMA on the opposite post (or high/low) and Roy looking to get open, this job falls to the PG and the SF. As good a passer as Sergio is, he seems pretty clueless about how to get the ball to Greg in a good position down low. And Batum doesn’t seem to be much of a passer at all.
Blake was better than Sergio, and looked like he was thinking about it and improving more and more. And I hope – I don’t really know – that Martell is a better passer than Batum.
by LicketyBrindle on Feb 10, 2009 10:56 AM PST reply actions
I thought Batum had the rep of being a good passer.
Maybe he doesn’t do a good job of finding Oden or it isn’t his responsibility in Nate’s offensive scheme.
I would think that it should be the guards who feed Greg.
by QuebecBlzrFan on Feb 10, 2009 11:41 AM PST up reply actions
One quick note
One thing you didn’t mention in your post Dave, was the fact that getting the time on the floor has a heavy psychological impact. Now I don’t disagree that giving oden time when he is playing bad instead of joel send the wrong idea. it really comes down to your estimated time frame. If you want to win now, you play joel, but guys like rex and oden and rudy really need to get their minutes for their confidence. I think Rudy and Rex are strong enough mentally to understand the ups and downs, but we need Greg to be more confident. Look at what it did for Nic. Compare scared summer league nic to confident regular season NIc.
Especially in college, you will see a player who was decent but not great take a monumental leap the next season without really seeing them add anything new to their game. 90% of the time, this is confidence instilled in them by the Coach. Any of you who have ever played with very good basketball players knows when you step on the court and you feel outmatched, your game isnt great and even tho you want to be agressive you are tentative. Once you step on the court and say to yourself seriously, these guys cant stop me, you play great. Confidence.
So while its important to win and getting Greg, Rudy and Rex the ball might hamper that slightly its important to build their confidence for the future. I seem to recall a last second shot in Memphis last year that completely changed the way a one Travis Outlaw played in the clutch. Confidence
It was "mascot night" at the Rose Garden, which apparently translates to a dozen inflatable versions of various NBA mascots being chased around the arena by Portland's "Blaze", which is some breed of rapist dog. -PostingandToasting
by GreatOden'sRaven on Feb 10, 2009 12:44 PM PST reply actions
but
I think earning time on the floor is what has its impact. I think if Oden, or anyone else, sensed they were getting silver platter treatment, playing minutes they didn’t deserve and costing the team games, that would be detrimental to their morale.
by LicketyBrindle on Feb 10, 2009 6:32 PM PST up reply actions
This would be the point
Greg can’t be GIVEN 10-12 shots per game. Greg has to TAKE those 10-12 shots per game.
“How can he take them when nobody gives him the ball?” comes the question.
He’s got to earn enough respect to get the ball. He does that by posting hard, converting when he does get it, playing with energy every minute he’s on the court, and starting to produce in multiple games in a row instead of sporadically. That’s how he displays confidence and competence. That’s how his teammates will know to pass to him more.
Oden isn’t playing with a bunch of selfish guys. He is playing with a bunch of guys who know how to get the ball in the hoop. When he shows he knows too then he’ll quickly fit in. They’re not going to stiff him just to stiff him. There’s a reason he’s not getting it more right now.
—Dave
After reading through all the comments
I feel the need to add a short addendum that I probably should have mentioned in the main post.
I agree that Oden’s development is probably THE most important factor in eventually turning this team from good to great. However a key part of that development, of the development of any rookie really, is this:
Never ever let a young guy grow up thinking that his game is more important than winning.
Nate has avoided this like the plague with every young player that’s come through here lately. He’s going to avoid it with Greg too. And for good reason.
—Dave
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