boy, this is weird
by rudy fernandez forever on Dec 9, 2009 11:30 PM PST
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PrintI'm going to be completely honest and candid in this post...
I hate Jerryd Bayless.
I love Jerryd Bayless.
'What?'
Everything about him has two sides for me...let me explain.
When we drafted Bayless I bought into the 'OMFG WHAT A STEAL' stuff, especially after he torched all Kwame Brown's cousins in the Vegas League for MVP honors. But then, I watched him play in his rookie season and had a revelation, so to speak. 'Wait....he's a point guard?' Yes, folks, Bayless is/was/will be/won't be a point guard. I immediately transitioned from admiration to disgust as I realized he passed the ball about as well as Zach Randolph. Even Bayless' nonstop energy and hyper-competitiveness annoyed me (I mean, one can only handle so much chest pounding and arm pumping in four minutes of garbage time, right?). He had his games and his moments, like the jaw-dropping slam against the Brooklyn-ahh, New Jersey Nets, but I still wasn't convinced. Now? I'm more of a Bayless believer than ever. Yes, I still close my eyes and cross myself every time he shoots anything over fifteen feet. Yes, whenever he passes I stop breathing. But I finally am beginning to realize Bayless' potential, even though he's the world's smallest 2-guard. When I see him out there defending opposing point guards and shooting guards with severe intensity and goatee, and when I see him drive the lane and get hacked across the arm, punched in the eye, and pickpocketed all in the same play, all while making a layin and NOT GETTING A FOUL CALL, I feel the slightest bit proud. Now I know, if Bayless can become a genuine shooting threat as well as tighten up a little with the ball, he can be a great asset on this team for years to come.
PS. Dante Cunningham is amazing. All the way from the sweet goggles to the silky bank elbow jumper, I love his game, his athleticism and most of all, his intelligence. Please don't trade him, KP.
PPS. We drafted Martell Webster sixth.....sixth....sixth......in the first round......just sayin'.
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Nice post!
I like Bayless alot too. I also like Dante. Although whats up with Dantes silly mouthpiece that makes hime look toothless? Do you like that? I kinda dont. And yeah, its definitely time for WEB to live up to being pick #6!! He should be shooting the lights out, what happened to his touch?
The Dude: Hey, careful, man, there's a beverage here!
by cavejunctionblazer on Dec 10, 2009 12:09 AM PST reply actions
Any news on when Pendergraph might be returning from injury?
Good stuff, too. I hated on Bayless while he was at UofA (myself being an ASU fan), but could never deny the kid’s talent.
Also…it is very odd that Webster isn’t producing. He looked ready to turn the corner, then…didn’t. He actually looks like he’s taken a few steps back.
Bright Side of the Sun, where Suns basketball never looked so good.
martell
was injured for a whole season. If i worked at subway for a year, got injured mid-foldding of a sub, went out for a year, then came back; I would be horrible too.
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#52
#5
#88
#25
by FrenchToast on Dec 10, 2009 12:44 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
I finally am beginning to realize Bayless’ potential, even though he’s the world’s smallest 2-guard.
Just wait until you see Patty Mills play…Bayless dwarfs the Aussie waterbug, but Mills is no more a PG than Jerryd
I also like Dante’s BBIQ, but he doesn’t have a position and with Batum and LMA ahead of him he’ll be Outlaw’s replacement at the ’tweener 4-3
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
We've been there before. Remember James Robinson?
I feel kind of sorry for these undersized twos. In the seventies, there wouldn’t have been such a disparity in height at that position (I remember thinking how freaky it was that George Gervin was a 6’7" two!), but these days those guys get dwarfed.
by Modal Rounder on Dec 10, 2009 2:36 AM PST up reply actions
He's improving that's for sure !
bayless plays a lot better now !! shooting of dribble been good. play making like Nash when he dribbles around and finds the open man !!
Bayless is a bit of an aquired taste, but his potential is very real and very substantial.
I have been one of the most consistent Bayless supporters on this site. I have been called a “Bayless fanboy,” been ridiculed repeatedly, and have still stuck to my guns. I really appreciate the fact that a lot of folks who dismissed Bayless are starting to re-examine their views.
For me, it starts with Bayless’ physical talents. He is strong, fast, and has excellent balance. It is this combination that makes him so good going to the hole: he has the explosive first step to get by defenders; the hops to get up to the rim; and the strength and balance to absorb contact and still get his shot off.
He definitely struggled with his outside shot last season, but that is true of a lot of young guys coming into the league. Given Bayless’ relentless work ethic and his pedigree as a scorer, it didn’t seem like much of a stretch to expect him to get better. He reworked his shooting stroke and fixed his “shot put” release. The results are showing on the floor.
I do want to take issue with a couple of statements you make in your OP,
I realized he passed the ball about as well as Zach Randolph.
even though he’s the world’s smallest 2-guard.
These are common sentiments. I have heard them repeated endlessly in various formulations: “He is an SG trapped in a PG’s body.” “He will never be a PG.” No matter how you phrase it, I think this basic notion is misguided.
1) “In the NBA, you are what you can defend.” This is an old adage and a good one. Bayless can defend PGs, therefore he is a PG. He is, beyond a doubt, a particular kind of PG, but he is a PG. Call him a “scoring PG” or a “combo guard” or what have you, he is not an SG.
2) A lot of BEdgers have figured out that Bayless can score and, more importantly, score efficiently. His True Shooting % of .613 ranks him third in the NBA behind a couple of obscure guys named Chris Paul and Steve Nash. Pretty decent company for a 21 year old who is struggling to get PT.
3) What a lot of folks don’t seem to have caught on to yet, is that Bayless has also shown significant improvement as a passer and playmaker. Bayless’ TOV% has dropped to 10.7. This is the best of Portland’s five guards: Roy 10.9; Blake 16.3; Miller 16.7; Rudy 20.1. Is this the guy who passes like Zach Randolph?
4) Furthermore, Bayless’ Assist % has increased to 19.1%. That puts him a little behind Blake’s 21.5 and well ahead of Rudy’s 15.9. This is still a little low for a PG, but given that Bayless has had the ball in his hands for less than half the possessions he has been on the floor, it is actually pretty darn good. Just as it didn’t take a lot last year to imagine Bayless being able to improve his shot, it doesn’t take a lot this year to imagine Bayless using his ability to penetrate to set up open looks for teammates on the perimeter and to learn how to drop the ball to the bigs when help comes.
I’m not saying that Bayless is a good distributor who is ready to take the reigns. He still has a fairly long ways to go before he proves that he can be a starting quality distributor in the NBA. However, I think it remains very premature to label Bayless as a guy who will “never be a PG.” The jury is still out on Bayless as a distributor, but given his intelligence, work ethic, and will to succeed, I wouldn’t bet against him at this point.
Bayless has come a long way. His PER has jumped 10.0 points in one season. If he can sustain this level of play, that is a remarkable improvement. He has earned more playing time from Nate, and he has earned a second look from those who wrote him off last season.
by upper left corner on Dec 10, 2009 6:02 AM PST reply actions 3 recs
Apparently you don't listen to Dwight Jaynes
Just ask him, he’d drive J-Bay to the airport if he got traded.
Jaynes is a wind bag
So is Gavin Dawson.
It amazes me that guys who are supposedly “knowledgeable professionals” can miss the mark so badly in evaluating players. Same goes for Cowherd and Simmons on Oden.
My basketball participation ended with eighth grade Goldenball, but I think I do as well if not better than a lot of the sport journalist types.
by upper left corner on Dec 10, 2009 8:34 AM PST up reply actions
Gavin Dawson?
Does that guy talk about anything beside the Ducks and “Getting a little Domestic”?
by pdxlifer on Dec 10, 2009 9:51 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Rec.
I swear next time I turn on 95.5 if I hear about the Ducks I’m done listening. Get over it – they go lucky and won a conference that in total had exactly 0 good nonconference wins. They wouldn’t have won the WAC or the MWC, let alone any of the other big six.
Way off base
Not sure if your trying to be funny, provocative, or just blowing off steam. I do know that the evidence is overwhelmingly against your statement.
The PAC 10 consistently has the most productive offenses and the best quarterbacks in the country. The Pac 10
has a record of 9-2 in bowl games the last two years. I will wager that the PAC 10 will be 5-1 this year.
USC beat Ohio State with a freshman quarterback and then lost 4 PAC 10 games.
Are you a pissed off Beaver? What is with the cheap smack?
by upper left corner on Dec 11, 2009 7:13 AM PST up reply actions
Early on, I was doubtful
but by the time of the draft, I knew we’d gotten a steal.
#52
With Bayless...
You get an extremely talented player that you would probably never find on a championship team. He’s got talent to spare, but his game just doesn’t fit and help a team win it all. He’d put up solid numbers on a bad to decent team. Golden State comes to mind when I think of a good fit for Bayless.
I think this is seriously mistaken
Bayless is the kind of player you would never find as the key guy on a championship team. As a complementary player to other stars, by all means.
Vinnie Johnson comes to mind. The kind of guy you would never build around, but extremely effective.
#52
Oh, and let's not forget
He’s still extremely young, and his game is still developing. He’s taken a quantum leap in his passing and court vision in the last year. He still has a long way to go, but he is so far ahead of a year ago. Another year or two of improvement, and who knows what he’ll be?
#52
The problem with this is...
I don’t disagree that he has the talent to be that type of player, I just don’t feel he is the type of player that would play that role. I was even going to clarify this in my post, but forgot. Bayless has the talent and energy to play that role, but that’s not the type of player he wants to be. His style is to try to be as aggressive as possible and fill up the stat sheet. Think a Monta Ellis type of player. Neither Bayless or his game strike me in the least as someone who wants to be a role player.
I could say the same thing about Rudy
and I have, on several occasions.
It’s interesting that Rufy and Rex will be fighting over this “6th man instant offense” role when Fernandez returns from back surgery. It’s ironic and sad at how well Bayless is “blocked” from playing time by the other veteran guards, but it’s a fact of NBA life. Another thing I’ve said a few times is that Jerryd was acquired “too late” in Portland’s developmental curve to get the minutes he needs and probably deserves. Just think if he had come out of college the same year as Sergio, or Jarrett Jack? We probably wouldn’t be having these “conversations”. But the 54 wins ratcheted up the expectations and the coaching staff is going to play the veterans unless they’re forced by circumstances to play the kids.
So far, the only guard-related injury has been to Rudy (not counting Mills) so Bayless is still blocked by veteran guards and raised expectations
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
"Minutes he needs and deserves"
I agree that it would have been better if Bayless had landed in Portland a year sooner when the stakes were lower. However, I think Bayless has been doing a pretty good job of forcing Nate’s hand. If he plays as well for the next month as he has for the last month, he is simply going to be impossible to sit.
Not too many players have jumped their PER by ten points in a career let alone a season. Give Bayless another 15 minutes of PT over the next month, and I think you will see continued improvement, particularly on the defensive end. His foul rate has started to drop, and he seems to be getting better at rotating on defense.
My point is that timing aside, if Bayless plays well enough he will eventually get minutes. Maybe not as many as I would like, but even Nate can’t hold him back forever. The real question is whether or not Nate will allow him enough reps handling the ball so he can improve his skill as a distributor.
by upper left corner on Dec 11, 2009 7:46 AM PST up reply actions
The real question is whether or not Nate will allow him enough reps handling the ball so he can improve his skill as a distributor
At Vegas Nate was interviewed and he said they would need to put JB into “situations where he can succeed” like attacking the basket. I don’t think that developing Bayless’ PG skills are a priority as the team is trying to win games. After a few games in summer league, the ball was given to Pooh Jeter to run the offense, and “the plan” heading into camp was to play Rudy and Rex together, and let Fernandez do more of the “playmaking” BAyless struggles when he has to do too much, like make sure all of his teammates are getting touches (PG 101) He’s better when he can attack and only dish when his path the basket is completely cut off
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I think your comments would be right on if we were talking about last season.
Bayless has shown a lot of growth and it seems reasonable to assume that there is more to come.
I think Nate has done a good job of creating a role in which Bayless can be successful. He is the instant energy bench scorer, and his game is well equipped for the role. My problem with Nate is that he isn’t giving Bayless more minutes based on the success he has had with that role.
My point is that he should gradually be given more reps as the playmaker who initiates the offense. He is making better decisions than he did last year. We are seeing a little less head down crash to the basket and a little more nascent ability to use his penetrating skill to set up teammates.
I agree that he struggles when he is given the job of being the primary ball-handler every time down the floor. But when he takes turn with Miller, or Roy, or Rudy, he can be an excellent change of pace. As long as he is scoring efficiently and keeping his TOV% down, what is the harm if giving him more reps?
Bayless is the only guy on the roster who has a chance to be the long range answer at the point. Developing him should be a priority particularly now that Greg is hurt.
by upper left corner on Dec 11, 2009 9:44 AM PST up reply actions
Basically, it comes down to this
Nate wanted to put Jerryd into “situations where he can succeed.” With a very young player, this was wise, and I agree with that approach.
It appears to me that Jerryd has improved in enough areas that the “situations where he can succeed” are broader than Nate thought at the beginning of the season, and Nate is giving Jerryd more of a role than he had at first.
In my opinion, Nate is still underestimating the “situations where he can succeed.” I think he is also somewhat underestimating the young man — I think Jerryd is having enough success that putting him in some “situations where he might fail” (or even where he probably will fail) will not destroy him, but will perhaps motivate him even more.
I think this was part of Nate’s approach with Greg’s fouls, too. Don’t let him fail by fouling out. With some young players, protecting them from failure is good, but others need to fail….
#52
Agreed. It depends on the psyche of the player involved
If you have a player who is mentally fragile and unsure, it is very important to see that they find some success and then nurture that little flame until it grows into a fire of confidence. I think Webster may be one of these kinds of players. Hard to tell from a distance, but I have that feeling.
Bayless is a very different animal; he brims with confidence and primal hunger for success. A bit of humility might not hurt Jerryd one little bit. Bayless has improved in spite of landing in rather rocky soil. He has determination oozing from his pores. He not only works like crazy, he is a student of the game. I think if you put the ball in his hands he will make mistakes, but he will learn from those mistakes quickly.
by upper left corner on Dec 11, 2009 2:34 PM PST up reply actions
Coaches (of contending teams) are trying to win games, not develop young players
I don’t expect JB to get opportunities to run the point unless Blake or Miller are hurt, or traded. If it was up to me…I would’ve started Bayless last February when Blake was hurt, and kept bringing Sergio off the bench to play alongside Rudy. Obviously the coaches felt differently and the team did well during the 2nd half of the season
Until the team is “out of the hunt” for playoff seeding this year (which may never truly be the case…) I expect Bayless to be used as a small scoring guard, and to rarely play alongside Roy. I hope I’m wrong, but I’m not optimisitic about an “upgrade” to Jerryd’s role or PT (…unless Blake or Miller are hurt, or traded)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Nate's handling of the whole PG situation is so utterly baffling to me....
……I have given up on expecting anything. Nate certainly hasn’t demonstrated much love for Bayless’ game. He sat him last year during Blake’s injury when I would have played him. He has been extremely stingy in terms of rewarding Bayless’ improved play this season.
To me, the injuries should make the team more focused on player development. I would be trying to package Blake with other assets and trade him before the deadline. But whether or not that will happen is anybody’s guess.
I keep dreaming about Bayless, Roy, Batum, LMA. and Oden. With Miller, Rudy, Martell, Trout (or upgrade) and Pryz. That has potential to be a heck of a team.
by upper left corner on Dec 11, 2009 4:49 PM PST up reply actions
I just love it when folks make huge sweeping statements based on limited or non-existant analysis
OK. You “feel” Bayless is “bad” for the team and he can never be a “winner.”
What exactly is your problem with Bayless’ style of play?
Is is the efficient scoring that bothers you? He has the third highest TS% among PGs in the league.
Is it the low TOV % that bothers you? His rate of 10.7 is the lowest of the five Blazer guards.
Is it the hard-nosed effort on defense that bothers you?
Do you buy into the notion that he is a “ball hog” who can’t pass? The reality is that Bayless Assist% is almost as high as Blake’s and higher than Rudy.
My point is that you seem to have bought into a lot of negative memes about Bayless that are not supported by his actual play on the floor. He may be cocky, and he may often wear a sneer, but everything we have heard says that he is extremely coachable and a good teammate.
I don’t mind when people have a different take on some subject than I do. I do mind when people don’t back up their position with any sort of coherent analysis. If you are going to say Bayless is a loser at least explain your reasoning..
by upper left corner on Dec 11, 2009 7:35 AM PST up reply actions
1. Maybe you should follow your own heading's advice.
2. I never said Bayless was a loser or could never be a winner. I said he won’t be on a championship team unless his style changes. Difference. He would have to mold his game into being a role player. As of right now, by actually watching his play, he’s always thinking drive to the basket and nothing else. He lowers his head and charges for the hoop most of the time when he gets the ball. This can be good for a spark, but it can’t be your only focus all game. It might work in garbage time, but not when he has a bigger role on the team.
3. You seem to have mistaken me for a Bayless hater. I am not at all and have found myself defending him more than not in the past. I like his personality and think he has plenty of talent. I think it’s pretty clear though now(and this isn’t his rookie year) that he is more of a shooting guard and not a point. We don’t need a shooting guard.
4. As far as your stats go for this year, maybe you should realize how inflated they are since they’ve come mostly in garbage time. It doesn’t mean close to as much. And you seem to confuse overly aggressive and stupid fouls with “hard nosed defense.”
5. Again, I like Bayless. I like his attitude and toughness. I just don’t see a point guard and I’m not really sure how most people would, his style just doesn’t say point guard. He could make a solid shooting guard, but he is a little small. If he tweaks his game into more of a role player, then maybe he could be on a championship too. Who knows, but I doubt it. Also, if he’s as good as you think he is, why don’t other teams want him?
From everything we have heard, he is doing exactly what the coaches have asked him to do
Let’s take this from the top:
1) My first post above and in response to you is filled with actual stats
2) The team’s top two bench scorers, Trout and Rudy, are hurt. Bayless has been asked to score. He is doing so very efficiently. How is that not winning basketball? Bayless Usage % is right in line with most scoring PGs in the league. His utilization rate is lower than Roy or Trout and his TS% is significantly higher than either.
3) His Assist % suggests that while he has a ways to go, he is learning to be an effective distributor. Take a look at PGs like Harris, Nash, DWill, and CP3 all of them have utilization rates in the same range that Bayless does. He needs PT and he needs reps with the ball in his hands to learn how to use his penetrating skills to set up teammates. Given that over half his minutes have been in situations where Blake, Miller, or Roy have been the dominant ball-handler, his Assist rate has been quite good.
4) This is just factually wrong. Over two thirds of Bayless’ minutes have come in the first half of games. Since he has started getting more minutes, he generally gets 5-10 minutes in the first half and about half at the end of the 3rd start of the fourth. Nate rarely pulls his starters in the fourth. He is too nervous if we are ahead and too stubborn if we are behind. The Minnesota game is the only game I can recall were Bayless got extended garbage minutes.
5) You seem to be going almost entirely off “feeling.” Try looking at his actual production. He is scoring efficiently and racking up a fair number of assists based on the limited number of times he is handling the ball. The new prohibition on hand checking has put a huge premium on PGs who can penetrate. Because of Bayless strength, speed, and temperament, he is likely to become one of the best penetrators in the league. Paired with Roy who is a good passer who makes good decisions with the ball, why do we need a traditional pass first PG. The overwhelming trend in the league is toward PGs who are strong scoring threats. Bayless can share distribution duties with Roy, Rudy, and Miller.
You never really addressed the questions I asked you in my first comment to you. What is it that you think Bayless can’t or won’t do? Have we heard anything to suggest that Bayless is selfish or uncoachable? He is doing exactly what he has been asked to do. If you don’t like it, I suggest you look to the coaches.
by upper left corner on Dec 11, 2009 9:22 AM PST up reply actions
His stats don't mean as much as the players you compared him to...
since he doesn’t play enough minutes. Also, going by stats, we must have made the dumbest mistake by letting Sergio go then. The truth is though that Sergio wasn’t that good and we saw this first hand. So yes a lot of basketball is more than stats and is about watching the players play. I don’t want to argue because again I actually like Bayless and think he deserves more minutes. He’s worlds better than Blake in my opinion and is a quality guard in this league. My only thing is that he seems to be highly overvalued, overhyped, and overrated as of late by some Blazer fans based on minimal minutes and evidence. This is the opinion of most of the Blazers analysts on the radio too, who have become highly agitated at times with the suggestion that Bayless is our answer. I’m good with giving him more minutes over Blake, he deserves them, but I just don’t see a point guard or anyone who can run the point like Miller always has his whole career. I originally compared Bayless to Monta Ellis which is a pretty nice comparison to get, especially with how unproven Bayless is. Ellis is not the type of player that we need at the point though.
My point has about style of play
I was not comparing Bayless to the best PGs in the league. He isn’t there yet, except perhaps at getting to the rim and the free throw line. My point is that the most successful PGs are rapidly becoming guys who score as well as dish dimes. It seems reasonable to think that Bayless, given the opportunity may develop in the direction of these scoring PGs.
The kid is twenty one and has a relentless, world class work ethic. It boggles me that so many people seem to think that he can’t or won’t improve as a distributor. He has already come a long way in a short time. Why are you so certain that he won’t continue to improve?
Miller is an excellent teacher for Bayless. He is a crafty old vet who is close enough to retirement that he is probably not terrible threatened by Bayless’ rise and is probably willing to share many tricks of the trade. Miller knows how to score down low even though his athleticism is in decline. Bayless has a chance to be a “super Miller” who can penetrate and hit the outside shot. He doesn’t yet have consistent three point range, but I think it is coming.
Roy said that playing in practice against Bayless reminded him of playing against D Wade. Adding a slightly smaller version of Wade to Roy, LMA, Oden, and Batum, as the defensive stopper, sounds like an incredible line-up in my mind.
by upper left corner on Dec 11, 2009 2:50 PM PST up reply actions
Hmm
As of right now, by actually watching his play, he’s always thinking drive to the basket and nothing else. He lowers his head and charges for the hoop most of the time when he gets the ball.
Just to say, Jerryd was 2-5 in 14 minutes against the Pacers. So I guess he only touched the ball 5 times in those 14 minutes.
He also got two assists in that time. How he did that when he was thinking drive to the basket and nothing else, I’m not sure. But somehow, he got one assist for every 2.5 shot attempts. Andre, on the other hand, who is supposed to be one of the top 10 PGs of the decade, had one assist for every six shot attempts.
I have seen it several times now where Bayless drives to the hoop and somehow has the vision to see the man out at the elbow or near the free throw line, and hit him for the open shot. Since he’s only thinking about charging fro the hoop, I’m not sure how he is seeing that guy. Maybe he elevates and sees the man’s reflection in the backboard, or something.
Of course, it is just theoretically possible that you are overstating things here slightly….
You are describing Bayless last year. This year, he still has a lot of the same tendencies, but he is making much better decisions with the ball, he’s finding the open man a lot more frequently, etc. You are correct that the tendencies are still there. You are wrong that he is only thinking about one thing, because he is obviously making a real (and somewhat successful) effort to rein in those tendencies and expand his game.
He is making some passes he never would have made a year ago.
#52
Pooor Martell.................
I wish he’d …. lol yeah….
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out, burns out farms, and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
Head Czar of Amerika <--- Mortimer said so so there!!!
upper left corner....
your replies are intelligent and, for the most part, correct.
but i have to say, i read halfway down the first one and began daydreaming about greg oden playing hoops in the wheelchair olympics….
by rudy fernandez forever on Dec 10, 2009 9:19 PM PST reply actions
I try to work on the entertainment value of my posts.,....
by upper left corner on Dec 11, 2009 7:48 AM PST up reply actions
it's way more fun
to crack jokes about the blazers than it is to take a serious view…i care how the team does but it seems unlikely to me that martell is reading the posts here and crying his eyes out (though he is probably doing that anyway)
by rudy fernandez forever on Dec 12, 2009 12:27 AM PST up reply actions
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