Interesting article with funny Andre Miller reference

Maybe some of the mathletes out there can parse this for us.

about 2 years ago JMoon 15 comments 0 recs |

Comments

To a certain extent the author seems to simply assume that % declines with age based on historical statists, then plots a future trend line,

by JMoon on Dec 9, 2009 9:23 AM PST reply actions

Yeah, I didn't think a lot of it

I guess I’d like to see some kind of evidence that % does decline. Jason Kidd doesn’t fit that idea, and I’m not sure Nash really does either. At some age, everything declines, of course.

#52

by jscot on Dec 9, 2009 9:54 AM PST up reply actions

Magic Johnson shot it better from deep as he got older

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Dec 9, 2009 10:11 AM PST up reply actions

I agree with both you and jscot

Guys who enter the league with limited shooting ability and expand that aspect of their game are bound to contradict the trend. Be interesting to plot Blake’s % trend on that graph, since the models all tend to peak around age 30.

by JMoon on Dec 9, 2009 10:18 AM PST up reply actions

of course, Magic and JKidd shoot set shots

this is why I think there may be hope for Miller, but his shooting stroke is all shoulders

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Dec 9, 2009 10:24 AM PST up reply actions

logically, skill at shooting the ball should...

…decline the least of most physical abilities in basketball, if at all. It’s not like shooting is the most strenuous of activities. Explosiveness, jump height, speed, etc. might all decline and contribute to not being able to get as good of a look or getting to their favorite spot on the floor as a younger player might, so that might cause a decline in fg%. However if anything there should be an increase of experience in shooting the ball, and seriously, how decrepit does a shooters arm and wrist become in their 30’s? So from a purely mechanical+mental point of view, fg% shouldn’t drop off, i think.

Skadoosh

by postup on Dec 9, 2009 10:21 AM PST up reply actions

Check out the spreadsheet

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Aja_Eu6zk_-kdHVWVkV3MUJRUnhwdGRZLVpzSFVRUFE&hl=en

Andre Miller’s 3-point shooting prime was when he was negative three years old.

Ruben Patterson’s prime was when he was nine.

by Twith on Dec 9, 2009 10:26 AM PST reply actions

Funny Dre and Ruben fact...and a very cool link

Amazing how flatly consistent Steve Blake’s line is.

by JMoon on Dec 9, 2009 10:48 AM PST up reply actions

That's just wrong

Blake hit 42.7 last year, 40.6 the year before. Something is going on with that spreadsheet, he’s got wrong data in there.

#52

by jscot on Dec 9, 2009 10:57 AM PST up reply actions

Good catch!

I didn’t notice that

by JMoon on Dec 9, 2009 11:00 AM PST up reply actions

This comment precedes the google stat table link:

“The model fit estimates the the average player’s peak age in 3pt shooting ability is 29, and the p-values for the and coefficients in the model form listed above are both less than 0.01.

The estimates for each player are listed in the following spreadsheet: 3FG% Aging Estimates"

Looks like the numbers in the table have been adjusted.

Once again, “maybe some of the mathletes out there can parse this for us.”

by JMoon on Dec 9, 2009 11:07 AM PST up reply actions

Estimate of ability, not actual result

Yeah, these are estimates of actual player ability. There is a lot of uncertainty around a player’s 3FG% from any one season. For example, a 95% confidence interval on last year’s estimate of Blake’s 3FG% is 37.3% to 48.2%. This model estimated his fair ability to be 39.9% at age 29, so it is a reasonable result.

I would like to show the uncertainty from this model as well, but I haven’t been able to successfully do that for some reason. :)

Last but not least, we can be sure that a true probability of making a 3pt shot in any given season is more than just a function of his ability and age. See Jason Kidd as an example.

by Ryan J. Parker on Dec 9, 2009 11:15 AM PST up reply actions

Thanks! Dre's estimated peak % of age -3 should have tipped us off :)

by JMoon on Dec 9, 2009 11:20 AM PST up reply actions

Looks like the numbers in the linked table are the predicted trend line not the actual season stats

by JMoon on Dec 9, 2009 11:10 AM PST up reply actions

Hmm

I look at Chris Mullin, who could shoot. His prime according to the spreadsheet was 31, when he hit 38.3%. Well, yeah, except he hit the same when he was 32, and 38.2% when he was 33, and 37.9% (totally insignificant difference) when he was 34. So, his peak was anywhere from 29-34. Even at 36, he was “all the way down” to 37%, a difference of maybe 4-5 makes a year, if he shot a lot of 3s at that age.

#52

by jscot on Dec 9, 2009 10:53 AM PST up reply actions