So I have been spending some time today poring over statistics trying to get a handle on what comes next for the Blazers. In doing so I was curious as to how Brandon Roy has evolved. What is he doing better this season, what is he doing worse. With our roster decimated by injuries it is becoming increasingly clear that we will need Brandon to play the most effective ball of his career if we are going to be successful and meet the expectations that this fanbase has placed on this squad. Undoubtedly you have by now read Ben's statistical analysis on the team thus far, and his analysis was/is on point. Here is my look at Roy's progress from 08-09 to now.
If you are not interested in the minutia of a stats break down, don't bother reading on.
Brandon is seeing the ball slightly less this season down just over one possession a game he is also marginally less effective in those touches averaging about .06 points less per possession.
Despite the emphasis placed, more so early in the season on running, Brandon is less involved in transition plays than he was last year, and almost .5 points per possession worse in transition plays that he is involved in.
His overall use in the half court game is marginally down, again roughly only about one possession per game. Where he is significantly less effective is with a short shot clock, where he has dropped from .92 PPP to .74 which is roughly the league average.
Brandon's short and midrange games both have seen increases in effectiveness. in 08-09 those facets were 74% of Brandon's game to only 26% 3 pt jumpers. This year however Short and Mid have dropped to 69% while his 3 pt shooting has risen to 34% despite a .18 PPP drop in efficiency
Elsewhere in the half court offense Brandon has extremely small losses in most areas as it pertains to PPP, however in two areas, both Brandon's usage and effectiveness has increased, most notably this has been seen in his Off-Screen shooting where he has jumped from the 47th percentile in the league to the 89th. The other area of note with regards to increased effectiveness, is Brandon's post-up game.
Troublingly Andre Miller's claims to get Brandon et al. easier shots has not been felt for Brandon as a cutter, as his effectiveness has dropped by nearly a quarter of a point/ poss.
Anecdotally it appears that defenses are paying far more attention to Brandon, as every situational effectiveness breakdown for his passing out of ISO P&R and Post-Up have increased.
Brandon also seems more willing to make the pass.In 08-09 only 5% of Brandon's ISO ended in a pass. This year that stat has jumped to 23% most commonly to a spot up shooter (81%) which is also up from 08-09 (69%)
Brandon is passing less out of the P&R by nearly 20% despite less efficiency when he keeps this year compared to last, and increased efficiency from his shooters when he does pass. However he is also single covered on the P&R 10% less frequently.
So all in all there are some Losses and Gains so far in the 09-10 season. These numbers are sure to fluctuate with the losses of Oden for the season and Rudy for an undetermined period of time.
I'll leave the speculation of what these losses and gains mean to the Blazers up to those that want to delve deeper. But I think it is safe to say that Brandon is evolving as a player, and finding where he can be most effective in this offense.