What If? What Now?
by Dave on Dec 7, 2009 12:37 AM PST
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PrintI think I've had more e-mail over this weekend than I've had in any weekend in history, ever. Basically people's responses and questions boil down to two matters: "What if?" and "What now?" Let's take a look.
How Far Behind the Curve Will This Put Us?
A couple of wistful folks asked whether I thought the team would have adjusted to Oden this season and how far this injury sets back the timetable for integrating him. I do think they would have hit their groove eventually but I'm not sure it would have been soon enough to do more than run off a couple of hot months. I don't think Portland would have found itself amongst the league elite even with those hot months, so it's not like the injury cost us that. Even last night I wasn't fond of how they started off using Greg up high, so I don't think they were moving in a direction that alleviated the either-or nature of the offense. They were making do...which is pretty much what you have to do when you're adjusting in the middle of the season. As coaches league-wide are fond of reminding us, practice time is scarce during the year. You have to get your start in training camp to have the best shot at consistent excellence. Beyond that it's hit or miss when you make changes. And the Blazers have been making changes all season.
If you're worried whether this season was completely wasted, whether they'll have to start from scratch next year, I would say "no". Obviously the only way to get used to Greg is to play with Greg. Losing 61 games' worth of opportunities to do that is irreplaceable. However this 20-game run viewing the nascent stages of the "real" Greg--meaning the Greg they're counting on in the future versus the lumbering, unsure version they saw last season--was educational. Now they know they can't just throw him in there and expect things to click. They'll know what they have to prepare for coming into next fall. I'd expect the coaching staff's notebooks will be full of ideas to get Greg off of the launching pad while keeping the main scorers happy. I imagine it will be Priority One. That's what this year taught us...an incomplete lesson, but still valuable.
What Do the Blazers Do Now?
As I said last night the costs to the team are pretty obvious: rebounding, defense, post play, intimidation factor, the other team having to factor Greg into their game plan. How can the team overcome these costs? They can't right now. There's no magic wand to wave. I'm not saying it's a disaster that will kill the season. I'm just saying there's nobody on the roster who brings all of the same things that Greg did. Joel will make up some of the defense and rebounding. LaMarcus will be called back into post duty. They'll have to get by without some things and try to substitute in what they're still good at.
One of the trickier aspects of the situation is avoiding a mental or emotional letdown. I tend to think that we in the public probably valued Greg more highly than his tangible positive effect on his teammates' games warranted, so I don't believe that anybody in that locker room is waving a white flag at this point. If anything once past the initial shock they're likely to view it as an opportunity for more time and responsibility. But on the whole they'll still have to avoid the temptation to just accept the season as it comes now instead of fighting for their position. They'll also have to avoid the temptation to make it all about their individual effort/opportunity. I don't think you'll see these things early but 3-4 losses strung in a row could make them vulnerable.
Both the team and its fans could maybe take the examples this season has already given us--the examples of friends and teammates in the Blazer family who have suffered this year--when dealing with the loss and whatever letdown accompanies it.
Well, how do you cope when you're diagnosed with cancer? Initially it's devastating and there are going to be plenty of hard days. It's not fair and it's out of your control, at least from the diagnostic standpoint. "The sun will come up tomorrow" sometimes seems more of a curse than an affirmation. It isn't right that it does. It seems like it should stop where it is because this happened. But sooner or later you figure out that it doesn't stop and it's not going to. Tomorrow comes anyway. You don't have any more choice about that than about the initial event. The only choice you have is how you're going to deal with tomorrow. Even your expectations here are changed. Maybe you used to have 16 great hours in a day and that's now reduced to 10 or 15 good minutes (especially at first). But those are your 10 or 15 minutes and you have to make them mean as much as the whole day used to. Some days will be better, some worse, but they're still yours to live. Maybe the Blazers used to take 48 minutes of winning basketball for granted but now with all the injuries they have to struggle to make 24. Some nights that'll be enough. Some nights you'll get 36 or that original 48. You celebrate those like crazy. Some nights it won't be enough. But you hold on to what good effort you had and you try to expand that for the next game. You don't worry about what's out of your control. You take care of what you can control. The games are coming anyway. You do everything you can to play each one well.
How do you cope when you're the coach who's under fire, whose every move is scrutinized, and who knows that no matter what he does somebody is going to say it was the wrong move because it's impossible to please everyone at once? What do you do when it's open season among media and fans? What do you do when in an effort to inspire your charges you blow out your Achilles so now probably even at home they're shaking their heads and saying, "Hey pops, don't do that"? What can you do? You can't fix any of it, really. All you can do is make what you feel are the right decisions, stick to your guns as much as you need to, slough off what everyone else says, and do your job. A bunch of people--fans and media, local and national--are going to be burying the Blazers for picking Oden, for not finishing as high as they were predicted to (if that occurs), for losing a season in which they were supposed to find themselves (providing they don't). All you can do is play right, stick to your guns, have confidence in yourselves, slough off what everyone else says, and do your job.
How do you cope when you break your knee, tear your shoulder, or fracture your foot and you're out for the year? You're not going to recover anytime soon. Your life is reduced to daily rehab toil for which the reward lies far in the future. At times that future is clouded by doubt and uncertainty. But you still do the exercises. You still follow the dietary regimen. You bust your butt every day even when it's a pain to do so. You never, ever give up. You believe in that future and that it's going to be great. The Blazers will still find their greatest success this year in repeating the fundamentals with each outing, continuing to grow individually and together, and busting their butts every day. The rewards may be smaller than they hoped in the present but it's going to pay future dividends for all of them, whether they remain Blazers past this year or not.
Allen, Lucas, McMillan, Outlaw, Batum, Oden...the examples are all there of people doing what the team needs to do every day in situations even more dire than that the team faces. (They do still have Roy and Aldridge, after all.) Pick up on that vibe and make it your identity for the year. The results might be better than people expect.
What About a Trade?
The guy I think might have the most difficult task ahead of him is Kevin Pritchard. Not only has the roster he built half disintegrated before his eyes, that roster wasn't in its final form yet. As much as he talks about cakes baking, there were moves--potential and probable, perhaps even necessary--available this year. Now, with an entire layer of that cake on the bottom of the oven and smoldering, what options does he have? The most obvious names on the exit list were Blake and Outlaw because of their contract status. Outlaw can't be traded when he's broken and Blake's trade value rests in his contract alone at this point. The only thing that makes sense is a team looking for a complete salary dump. Getting a player who makes a difference on those terms seems like long odds. Joel Przybilla also has a potential contract situation and could garner some value around the league but he can't be moved now, if he ever could to begin with. Andre Miller seems like a tough sell at this point. You better get a small forward or some shooting or scoring back for Martell Webster if you move him. The cupboard is thin right now and the shelf beneath is showing cracks.
This is probably OK, though, because I don't believe you make any deal in response to this situation that you wouldn't have made otherwise. For one thing, what are you salvaging? If you get a guy who's going to help fill holes now you still buy maybe a few extra playoff games. But the guys left to trade with any value are your potential-laden future players. You don't trade away a Fernandez or Bayless to get a stopgap measure. On the other hand the roster is too depleted to be confident about swinging a deal for the guy who's going to eventually put you over the top. Cherry-picking the best of the remaining (reasonably-tradable) roster might not be enough to get that guy. You're in no-man's land here, dealing from a place of vulnerability rather than strength. Pressing the panic button is not the right decision in that situation.
The best move here is to batten down the hatches and ride it out. You still do any deal you would have done anyway...moving those contracts if you're not going to use them, for instance. But if you do see a move made to address the present or near future odds are it will be subtle, or at least look subtle right now. Unless the Blazers already had a significant deal in mind with the exact players who are healthy now you're not likely to see one.
How Much Has This Affected Me Personally? My Fandom? How Big of a Moment Is This?
My overall fandom is unaffected. I'm still a Blazer fan, win or lose. As far as the immediate, personal impact of the injury, I'd rate it pretty high...probably an 8.5 out of 10. Part of that takes into account the combined effect of the injuries though. It'd be somewhat lower if Batum and Outlaw weren't already out. I don't believe this ruined a season in which we had a reasonable shot at a title. I do think we will see such seasons in the future. That's where perspective comes in. Oden going down in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals? That's a 13.5 out of 10.
I guess the main disappointment here, besides that I feel for Greg personally, is that even though this season can still be special it'll be special in the way we're used to. Even if we find success it'll be a scrappy team with an incomplete roster fighting for respect and being pretty happy with any level of success in the playoffs. The goal of the second round of the playoffs might still be attainable but it becomes a real long shot if our seed drops. Either way, you know we're limited this year. We were kind of limited anyway, but the upper reaches of that limit seemed higher. Also success would have clearly indicated what was in store for this team if it was intact. Now you wonder how much applicability it has. We were hoping for a different flavor of special this year. No matter how productive working on Uncle Owen's farm for another season turns out to be, it's just not the same as joining the Rebels and going up against the Death Star.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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Very well put sir, I commend you.
Now is Oden gonna get picked up for next year… wasn’t this a contract year, and would we be foolish to sign him without knowing he is healthy? hmmm
I'll try anything twice!
by carlitosbonitos on Dec 7, 2009 12:43 AM PST reply actions
It already was, I believe
The bigger question is whether he gets an extension this coming summer or not. I don’t see how you could give him a max extension. So that means one of two things, either the Blazers extend him for less, and potentially get a real bargain, or they just wait to extend him until the end of his rookie contract.
#52
The latter, I think
That’s what I meant by option. I don’t think Greg will want to sign for less.
—Dave
But if you are Greg
do you want to risk yet another injury in your fourth year meaning you never get a big contract at all?
#52
That's why I said it will difficult to negotiate below.
Greg wants a long term contract for security because of risk of injury. Blazers don’t want to pay a huge sum in a long term contract because of risk of injury. Greg might decide to not sign this summer and go to restricted free agency thinking someone else may be willing to take a bigger risk than the Blazers to get him. That might also be ok with the Blazers because they can match. Greg could take out a huge insurance policy (very expensive) in case he’s hurt during the 4th year. He probably doesn’t sign the qualifying offer because then he’d need a 2-year insurance policy.
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Dec 7, 2009 2:08 AM PST up reply actions
He doesn't seem like the kind of guy
who is going to go shopping around for a deal. Realistically, the Blazers will offer him more than anyone else anyway, and I think he’ll feel some sense of loyalty to Portland as long as the money is in the ballpark. I mean really, given his history, who is going to pay more than he’s worth to Portland?
But what incentive does Portland have to offer him a huge amount of money next summer?
They can let him become a restricted free agent and see how he comes back next year. Then they can negotiate again with him or match any offer he gets, which is unlikely to be huge (another team would have to want to gamble and have big cap space in 2011). Worse case for PDX, he has a huge comeback year (which would be great for us) and then we end up paying for what he would then be worth.
I just think this is going to be a difficult negotiation and almost any scenario could unfold. But in the end, it’s almost a certainty that Greg will sign another 4-5 year deal with the Blazers.
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Dec 7, 2009 2:56 AM PST up reply actions
Another possibility
is something really complicated, like MLE level money guaranteed, but max or near max contingent on games played.
#52
Just let Oden become a RFA and match.
That’s what they should have done with LMA.
Let the market (and the then-current CBA) set the price.
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
It does create a certain amount of mistrust between the player and the team
See Ben Gordon for example.
If the player feels he is being low balled he can essentially demand a sign and trade. See Rashard Lewis for example.
I think a contract just below LA’s is more likely. Remember that insurance pays most of the cost if injured and cannot play. That money comes off the salary cap as well. Of course that supposes that insurance is even available for Greg.
"Either way we have two phenomenal units. I'm excited to play with either one." - Martell Webster
I don't think it would this time
Greg knows he doesn’t have a claim to a max contract, and he also knows he’s good enough to earn one if he gets the chance. He’ll understand where the team is coming from.
The key is the following summer. If he comes back and has a good year, he’ll be looking for a contract. If there is no one out there with cap space to offer him what he’s earned, and the team low-balls him because of the market rather than because of his play/injuries, that would create mistrust.
Yes, insurance might be difficult to get.
But I don’t see giving Greg 5 years guaranteed at $11-12 million right now. It isn’t just the insurance cost, it is the cap ramifications.
If we give Greg that much, it means one of two things. Either we hamper our team by not paying to keep Rudy and Nic and Jerryd, etc, or we go into luxury tax.
If we go into luxury tax, Greg’s contract costs luxury tax even if he gets hurt and insurance pays his salary. If we let players go, we aren’t as strong a team.
It’s one thing to put yourself in the position of paying out a lot of money or losing good players if you are doing it for a great player with a good chance of playing a lot and possibly winning championships. It’s another to put yourself in that position for a guy who’s averaged 27 games a year his first three seasons.
I’ll be surprised if there is a contract at that level unless there are significant opt outs for the team.
#52
It was. On 2009-10-16 the Blazers have exercised their 4th year contract option on Greg through the 2010-11 season.
After that, he will be a restricted free agent with full Bird rights so the Blazers can go over the cap to sign him or match offers. As discussed he is also eligible for a contract extension next summer, but that would indeed surprise me as both sides have some interest to first see what he can do in a full season. What also might help the Blazers in that regard is that I believe Greg feels like he has not fully delivered yet on his side of the deal. He and his agent (Mike Conley’s dad) of course want to have him secured, but I doubt he’ll go for a big offer from another team. He still has to give back, and in his case/character I think he’ll honor his side of the deal more than some players would.
I think that is correct
And the obvious solution (to me) is to structure a deal with significant incentives, so if he produces like a max player, he’s paid like one.
#52
There's no option. It's a contract negotiation year.
This going to be very difficult. They (Oden or the Blazers) may prefer to go to restricted FA. I think it will be nearly impossible to agree on a new long term deal this summer.
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Dec 7, 2009 12:51 AM PST up reply actions
I can't imagine teams wanting to max out a guy who has played as few games as Oden in his first 3 years.
There’s nothing wrong with going the RFA route.
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
Allen's health will be an added factor...
If someone else takes over the team, they would be much more likely to refuse to shell out big bucks for Oden, given his injury history.
Also, the Blazers are going to have to shell out a large chunk of change to Joel now (if he opts out). They can’t afford to let him go anymore.
Here’s another important question: given how unreliable Oden has been, health wise, will the team really be willing to drastically alter their system to build around him next summer? It seems to me that they probably have to. If they keep him, they clearly have to figure out a way to work him in with Roy and LA. Trading him would be exceedingly difficult now. And letting him walk seems stupid. Thoughts?
Excellent
Nothing to add but kudos, really. You mirrored my thoughts on a trade. Maybe pick up a D-leaguer at center at least until Pendergraph comes back, but don’t sacrifice future potential unless you were going to, anyway.
#52
Did Golden State let that D-leaguer guy go who was good against us?
"Either way we have two phenomenal units. I'm excited to play with either one." - Martell Webster
Don't they have to drop a player once someone gets healthy again? They have 16 on the roster.
"Either way we have two phenomenal units. I'm excited to play with either one." - Martell Webster
I assume so
but I don’t think they’ve dropped him yet, and if he continues to play like he did against us, they might drop someone else.
#52
Pendergraph healthy in another month or may help
Your take on trades feels like the right one. If you were going to make one for the long-term anyway, then make it. Otherwise don’t panic. We’ll get though it and it will look familar. I can hear Chas Barkley already: “Their a jumpshooting team and they’ll never go anywhere if they do make the playoffs.” However, if Joel goes down we are in deep doodoo.
In terms of fandom, I’m most disappointed by not getting to watch Greg develop and reap the rewards of his hard work. He was certainly the bright light so far this year. At least we have those twenty games to think about.
put a body on 'em
I was thinking the same thing...
When is Pendy due back?
I’ve heard next to nothing on the guy’s recovery.
Appreciate your reasoned approach
This season was maybe too early to really get a ring and the biggest disappointment for me is for Greg. He is having to carry a big load of guilt (that he himself has created) from his first year and now all over again. I do think we find out if Andre can play with Brandon and that in itself is helpful. I also think LA will now grow tougher inside and his growth may be furthered by Greg’s absence. Juwan and Dante will both be even more needed and perhaps some quality time from Jeff before season’s end.
What about Patty? In a 3-guard offense he could be a much needed reserve. Can he play as a rookie PG for Nate? If he can shoot my bet is he gets some minutes.
"Either way we have two phenomenal units. I'm excited to play with either one." - Martell Webster
Fans!
Question for you fans:
Based on the injuries we’ve sustained will we:
1. Make the playoffs.
if so
2. Finish with a better overall record than the Houston Rockets.
"Sometimes that light at the end of the tunnel is a train."
-- Charles Barkley
I think we are still better than the Rockets.
by Nick Van Excellent on Dec 7, 2009 2:30 AM PST up reply actions
Right On and I agree 100%. I expect that what are now unknown possibilities and potentialities
as several players slowly return, Cunningham gets more experience and confidence, and a general passing of the initial impact of losing Greg occurs, is that the bird that is the Blazers gets some wind under its wings and refuses to land, much less to crash. Lots can change in several months in the NBA, as we’ve all just witnessed—again. Expectations can again be up, if not in the stratosphere.
"Gonna stand my ground ... and I won't back down" -- Tom Petty
"You have to know the past to understand the present." -- Dr. Carl Sagan
COMCAST SSSUUUCCCKKKSSS!!!!!!!!
Rule No. 18: If you want to live to post another day, don't turn the tube on in Dave's living room.
i still dont know what the hell to think.
i still dont know what the hell to think.
at this point…those sam bowie band wagoniers honestly, are really getting to me, and they are getting to me. im not talking about getting to me in terms of "shut up! he’s not a sam bowie" but more so "…(sigh and really take in what that means to say he’s another sam bowie) and say nothing much else but "he’s coming bak next year…" i dont know how to process this. I wish i was speaking of this short-term lack of progress. i am talking about this whole new regime prichard began. to put into perspective: i was an 11 year old die-hard blazer fan the last time i cried about the blazers. that was the conferance finals against kobe and shaq and the lakers. After that i havent since. UNTIL last night. im 22 now. call me a cry baby. say whatever. i do not care. that is the type of feelings i had. that is why i KNEW something like that is even BIGGER than it seems even with "staying positive". this changed everything prichard started and hoped for. I do not think at all that he will EVER be the same player he was before, when he comes back. the refs, the REAL game-changers, wont give him credit. they were starting to give me alot of credit this year. that will not happen again. his movement and explosiveness will never be the same. i dont care if you , i , anybody, jordan, or oden came into the league and within three seasons of being drafted, you, i, anybody, jordan, or oden had two major knee surgeries would NVER EVER EVER EVER be the same caliber of athlete they were before. this truly sucks. but tis the truth. everything we know as blazer fans, just changed. drastically. and ultimately for the worst in the short-term, and in the long-run. im not a doom-n-gloom kind of guy, and definably not with the blazers. but you have to be realistic and honest with yourself. THIS JUST CHANGED EVERYTHING.
It really changed nothing.
It is true that Greg’s injury was devastation to the whole Blazer Nation. Not only because of the suffering Greg is dealing with but in my case not being able to watch him play this year.
But nothing has changed and only the lost of Greg is lost for this season. The Blazers will pick up the pieces and go on playing. If you enjoy BB, you will still enjoy the team for what they have to offer with or without Greg. Although it is true that injuries has an impact on the cause and effect of winning or losing, that is true of all our injuries, not just Greg’s. If not winning all the games are what you think has changed then that wasn’t going to happen anyway.
At its best the road to a championship is still hard and bumpy, Injuries makes it two steps forward and one back but we will still pursue the championship.
Therefore nothing has changed. It might take longer. It will just make us appreciate the end results more. In the mean time I am going to enjoy watching, listening to, blogging with Blazer fan’s and take it one day at a time.
hg
by BBK on Dec 7, 2009 9:07 AM PST up reply actions
Greg broke his patella!!! It is not a career changing injury. PERIOD. Before you write all
about how he will never play the way he could have etc. please know what you are talking about. A patella surgery is NOT a major surgery. Microfracture surgery is. Greg fully recovered from that. The recovery from a broken knee cap is CAKE in comparison. Also, and this is HUGE, Greg has shown to himself and to basketball just what he can do in the NBA. He now KNOWS. He didn’t before. It took until this past summer for Greg to be able to fully practice lateral moves due to the microfracture surgery. The recovery time for a broken knee cap is NO WHERE NEAR the same. If you are not a gloom and doom sort of guy, I’d hate to see who is!!!
longer recovery time for his right kneee
if there is any silver lining for the left patella injury, it’s that Greg won’t be playing on his right knee for the next 5-6 months. Less impact = more time for the m/f area to heal
I suspect down the road Oden will have knee “issues” though (pain, swelling, cronic arthritis) It’s almost a given. When the pain will become significant enough to affect his career is anyone’s guess. He may be able to play into his late 30s, but there’s no guarantee
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Take into account all the players KP has picked for Portland: Batum, Oden, Aldridge, Rudy, Bayless. We had no business winning the #1 pick, but we did.
You take all that into account, take away those players and there is still Brandon Roy. All eyes are shifting to Brandon now. All the pressure of where this franchise is heading is all going on Brandon Roy. I’m glad it’s him though, if it’s going to be anyone I’m glad it’s him. No matter what happens to the other players around the franchise, I feel safe because we have him, and no one can doubt his game.
I've been saying something like this
I own up to being one of those crying for Roy to get with the new (Oden, Miller) program. To give up some responsibility and get these boys immersed into the offense. Today, after I sacrifice my oldest son on behalf of Nic, Travis, Paul, Nate, Rudy, Jeff, Greg, and Patty — is that all? — I’ll promise my daughter’s hand in marriage to a talking snake who promises to protect B-Roy.
by jiminut on Dec 7, 2009 5:04 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Blazer fans were rightfully excited even before the team won the lottery
I think people forget this
Blazer Fan
by leeroyjenkins on Dec 7, 2009 6:40 AM PST up reply actions
I'd like to add that Oden's injuries have always been magnified because of important a player he is.
Look at the other players on this team. Martell Webster is freakishly athetlic and he missed a year with a foot injury, same with Mills and now Outlaw. Brandon has had both his knees operated on. Aldridge is always having problems. Joel just played his first full year last season. Rudy’s back is keeping him out for long stretched.
It’s so unfair everyone crashed down on Oden because he gets hurt like everyone else. Really, I hope the bandwagoners just leave and never come back. Oden will be back, he will have a long career here in Portland. The negativity really needs to stop.
by BRoyInThe4th on Dec 7, 2009 3:49 AM PST reply actions 2 recs
Very True
I’ve been thinking this since it happened.
"Every time I see Stern in public now, I kept expecting him to point up to a helicopter hovering above, like Sosa did to impress Tony in "Scarface," followed by the sight of a beaten-up Tim Donaghy being pushed out of the 'copter in midair," Bill Simmons, ESPN Draft Diary 2008
by Anthony Stine on Dec 7, 2009 4:02 AM PST up reply actions
In fairness, he's missed nearly two full seasons out of three
I think the evidence that he’s injury-prone is pretty strong
Blazer Fan
by leeroyjenkins on Dec 7, 2009 6:39 AM PST up reply actions
the Sam Bowie comparison is eeire
Nobody wants to hear this, but I was a Blazer fan during the ’80s (and before) and saw Sam play as a rookie for 76 games, then play only 38, 5, 0, and 20 games over the next 4 seasons before he was traded for Buck Williams. During that stretch, the Jack Ramsay era ended, and Mike Schuler also came (won coach of the year) and was let go. Expectations of a high draft choice “not panning out” create tension that is unlike any other for a front office. And nowawdays the pressure is even greater, due to talk radio, the internet and twitter. The Blazers were getting bounced in the first round for 4 out of those 5 seasons, even as their young core that eventually broke through in 1989-90 was coming together. Unfortunately, the team moved on without Sam, fortunately, he still had trade value despite all of that missed time.
There’s no reason to expect the Greg Oden Saga will continue to parallel Bowie’s career. But the comparisions can no longer be dismissed. Sure, they’re different players, and they’ve been injured in different areas of their anatomies. But they were both unable to play and the remaining core of their team has no choice than to “play on” without their big guy. There may be a light at the end of the tunnel, but right now it’s distant and faint.
Meanwhile, Joel Przybilla and LMA will play the role of Mychal Thompson and Steve Johnson in the middle of Portland’s lineup. And KP needs to go try to find a Caldwell Jones
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
What everybody forgets
is that Bowie played 372 games after he was traded away from the Blazers. He didn’t have a world-beating career but he was solid. And he only dealt with one major block of time off because of injury after his final recovery with the Blazers.
—Dave
Sam was also chronologically older then, than Greg is now
If it takes a big guy to reach his late 20s before he “grows into his body” and he can withstand the pounding of an NBA seaon, then we have quite a few years of walking on eggshells waiting for Greg to reach that golden age
Don’t get me wrong…I want to hold onto GO and reap that late 20s production, I’m just concerned that Oden’s prime years and Brandon’s best seasons may not “overlap”. In a couple of years KP may have to do what now appears unthinkable…and that’s to flip Roy when his value is still high to acquire a younger player who can feed Greg the ball en route to a championship run
put that one in your pocket for future reference
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I totally agree with the post stating that others have been injured for long periods of time
and it’s not made into such a big deal. I do NOT totally agree that Greg is injury prone.
I don't see why we should still
keep Pendergraph. He is not very tall only 6-10(I think) and not particularly long. He is strong but not very athletic so what can he do for us? He’s not a good enough rebounder(not Blaire-sque anyway) and not very intimatading as a shot blocker. So he can set picks , big deal. He’s undersized as a center and we need one real bad right now. I don’t trust Joel to stay heathly all season long and Howard starting is a scary thought. KP needs to do something soon.
Someone correct me
But if he’s 6-10 that is good for a modern center. I apparently was misled growing up with Patrick, Hakeem, Kareem, David and more (Parish, Zo) but clearly 7-0 is a luxury in the league. 7-0 and talented is a gold mine. Imagine the damage Mark West would do if he came back young and healthy?
by jiminut on Dec 7, 2009 5:10 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
If Hakeem was 7 feet tall, then so am I. Look at the old tapes and see for yourself
Which only makes your point: you don’t have to be 7 feet to be an effective NBA center.
I was born in '52, and I believe in #52. Hang in there, GO.
The first year of his contract is guaranteed, so the Blazers don’t save anything by cutting him (unlike Mills). So they might just as well use him, and can indeed use him now more than ever. It’s true that he’s not a pure center, but just another big body besides Dante who is rather a 4-3 like Travis and Juwan who isn’t a center either to relieve LaMarcus and Joel is valuable to have.
Pendergraph was measured as having a standing reach of 8-11. That’s not amazing, but still puts him on a level with players like Al Horford, Michael Beasley, Udonis Haslem. It’s slightly more than Joakim Noah, Ronny Turiaf, David Lee (who plays center in D’Antoni’s system), Drew Gooden (who plays some center in Dallas), and also Blair and Dante. He has a reputation as playing with high energy and work ethic. His rebounding percentage at Arizona State was excellent, 30% on offense and 25% on defense in his last season and always around that for all 4 years. He also recorded around 1 block per game.
I say we can really use those skills at the moment, though he obviously is no replacement for Greg and probably not even for having Joel on the court.
Jeff can be a Mark Bryant
but that’s his ceiling. From what I saw from Vegas (and I’ve reviewed those game tapes recently) Pendergraph is mechanical, not smooth. His jumper is unreliable. He’ll have trouble defending centers and mobile PFs. The Blazer scouts (and Nate?) must’ve really liked him though, because there were “better options” available at the 31st pick, and not all of those options had knees with no ACLs
I’ll be surprised if #31 is still with the Blazers in a couple of years, but then Mark Bryant filled a reserve role for a few more seasons that I thought he would, back in the day. (I suspect Ramon Ramos’ accident had something to do with that…)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I'd pick Etan Thomas as a modern-day comparison for Jeff Pendergraph, but your assessment ...
of Pendergraph is still right on the money. Also, I think Nate McMillan — whose son attends Arizona State — might’ve made the call on picking Pendergraph. For some reason, Victor Claver seems like a KP pick, Pendergraph a McMillan pick, Dante Cunningham a scouting department pick, and Patty Mills a best player available pick.
Dear Paul Allen:
Fire Nate McMillan & hire Jeff Van Gundy.
Sincerely,
AK1984
I suspect Mills was a Nate pick
Nate raves about how difficult the USA team found him to deal with in the Olympics.
I was born in '52, and I believe in #52. Hang in there, GO.
This one hurts
The Blazers have had the #1 draft pick 4 times: 1972, 1974 (Walton), 1978, 2007. It could be another 20 or 30 years before that happens again so Oden isn’t just another guy on the roster or a fan favorite, he’s that “once every 30 years” opportunity. It’s not about Oden as a person but the idea that we had this really rare chance to add that missing piece to develop from a good team into a great one. Now we take Oden out of the picture and the Blazers are looking up at the contenders and trying to figure out what’s missing, just like before.
I love Oden and want to see this team thrive with him but you just can’t build around a guy who isn’t there. LMA hasn’t played like a real All-Star and Roy alone isn’t enough to take this team to the promised land. Will this team continue to build around potential or start focusing on tangible production? Even if Oden comes back next year and never gets hurt again you still have to accept that he could be several years behind the core of this team, still getting comfortable as an NBA player while Roy and the rest are ready to make a run for the big prize.
Even if we cobble together a rotation and push for a low seed in the playoffs it looks like we’re right back where we started, going into next season with lots of young guys with potential, Oden who’s never played a full season, and a lot of talk about how good this team might be someday in the future.
Przybilla is a good center. He isn’t with the best but he’s capable of filling that role as he did last season. IMO the team is better when they surround Roy with shooters and run anyway.
The question I’d be looking into is it time to trade in some of the injured bodies for Battier? Nearly half the team is injured.
I believe the team will rally. Mainly because this will cause each player that can still play to focus on the season. They have noone to cover for them and they know they better come ready or it’s going to be a long embarrassing season.
Dave mentioned the preseason as being the time to practice and figure out how to play your game. This is exactly why I’ve been down on Nate. It seems every year he starts the season unsure of how to use his assests. I believe a more seasoned veteran coach would do a better job of this than Nate has done. None the less this will have to be addressed in the offseason as there is no point now in changing coaches.
Agree on Nate except...
If I were G.M., I’d be looking to see if the switch could be made right now, during this road trip. If we can pretty much agree we aren’t getting anywhere in the ‘10 playoffs, then I’d give the next coach the rest of this season to experiment and learn the players’ individual strengths and weaknesses. The only question is whether there’s a trade up at coach available in mid-season. I’m a fan of JVG.
Now we can see what LaMarcus is really made of and if he's worth that contract
He’s the one guy who can duplicate some of what they’ll lose without Greg: inside presence, rebounding, blocked shots
But that’s if he plays like the LaMarcus the Allstar…so far this season he’s only done that one or two games.
Blazer Fan
by leeroyjenkins on Dec 7, 2009 6:38 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
When past Blazers teams have struck the proverbial iceberg...
it has at least made me look around for the location of the lifeboats. Somewhere around 2003 I shoved some women and children out of the way to secure a seat. It is comforting to not worry about that now. Whether we sustained minor damage or ripped a gashing hole in the side of the boat is all moot. I’m still looking at the horizon.
Greg, you da man. Just wait til you hear the cheers on the night you return.
The cowards never started
The weak died along the way
Only the strong survived
They were the Trailblazers
by lukeyhere on Dec 7, 2009 8:31 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Calling all Experts
Can we get the discussion started on replacement coaches? For real? I’d start a post but it would be less than a joke. I’d love to see a smart discussion started with the pros and cons of some of the available head coach prospects… college guys, ex players, analysts. I’d nominate Dave but he’s already employed.
No
Nate McMillan did not cause any of these injuries, directly or indirectly. Sure we have some issues with his substitution patterns but I have a hard time believing we’d be where we are without him.
"Good evening Blazer fans, wherever you may be!"-Bill Schonely
Well, Nate McMillan did cause his own injury.
Yes, I’m being a smart aleck. It’s still funny, though.
Dear Paul Allen:
Fire Nate McMillan & hire Jeff Van Gundy.
Sincerely,
AK1984
Firing Nate isn't going to happen, nor should it.
I’m not a huge fan of all of Nate’s decisions. I wrote a Fanpost a couple of weeks back entitled “From benefit of the doubt to just plain doubt,” so I don’t think I can be accused of being a Nate homer. Having said that, the idea that Nate should be fired, at this time, is simply ludicrous.
First off, Nate is not responsible for the fact that six players, including two starters and our top two bench scorers are hurt.
Second, whatever you may think of Nate’s schemes, rotations, game time adjustments, he has an admirable record of improvement so far in his tenure as coach. I have doubts about whether or not he is the guy to take us to the promised land, but there is no doubt that the team has come a long way.
Third, all indications are that Nate has a strong relationship with most of the players on this team. Firing the coach when the players are struggling to find a rhythm and adjust to fallen comrades would be very unsettling. Our players need as much stability at this moment as possible in order to bolster their shaken confidence. Guys can only handle so much change at one time without creating complete chaos.
Fourth, from a public relations standpoint, firing Nate now, would be disastrous. The organization would be perceived as being in a panic and being disloyal to a guy who had turned the franchise around.
I’m curious to hear you and the other Nate haters try to make a rational case for dismissing him at this time. I simply don’t think it can be done.
Whether or not Nate’s contract should be extended beyond this year is an entirely different topic of discussion.
by upper left corner on Dec 7, 2009 9:46 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
That is a superb comment
There’s about as much possibility of us firing Nate right now as there is of us trading Pendergraph for Dwight Howard. Another month of losing, and dropping below .500, might have caused that to be considered before the injury, but not now. Simply not possible.
#52
Yeah, the earliest Nate McMillan will be fired is during the off-season.
And, even though I’m a fan of JVG, I’d bank my money on KP hiring someone like Mike Budenholzer once McMillan — who was brought in during the Steve Patterson/John Nash era — is finally canned in Portland.
Dear Paul Allen:
Fire Nate McMillan & hire Jeff Van Gundy.
Sincerely,
AK1984
100% with you on the last point
As anyone who has stuck with this team through the Jail Blazer era (and I’ve been rooting for this team far longer than that) can tell you, this is nothing compared to that. I’ve said since our Roy’s first year that this was a team I wanted to root for and am proud to root for.
It is hard to think of another current/former Blazer player getting injured who could instantly generate as much good will around the league. Maybe Sabonis or Brian Grant but that’s about it.
"Good evening Blazer fans, wherever you may be!"-Bill Schonely
Good post, Dave,
I think I’ll stop reading in the sidebar for a while. Maybe a year or so. Stick with people who can make sense.
by raoulduke on Dec 7, 2009 9:30 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Such a bummer...
Greg’s best 7 game stretch in his career was over the last 7, averaging 15+ and close to double-digit rebounds. They were finally learning how to pass to him. I had finally stopped worrying every time Greg moved. But this – to break a kneecap just with the force of your own body hitting the ground? THAT is injury prone…
I’m afraid I’m starting to believe all the naysayers who said that Greg’s body size is due to a glandular disorder, and therefore his bones are just not strong enough to handle his size… How can you build an offense around a guy who is so likely to get hurt again?
I’m just very depressed. Without Greg, our championship hopes are just that – hopes. With a healthy Greg, I was very confident in at least one championship… (Sigh)… Well, the good news is, the wife will be happy, as I no longer feel the urge to watch every second of every game.. Sure, I’ll go to a few more this season, and root them on, and still have hopes for a 4-5 seed and a first round victory, but man… what a blow…
Get well soon, Greg. Hopefully the pins will make your knee even stronger, and hopefully you aren’t an injury waiting to happen…
by Visionary2 on Dec 7, 2009 9:49 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Someone needs to put a front page article on how the injury was likely caused.
It was most certainly not from landing on the ground. It was a freak injury, caused by two muscles surrounding the Patella pulling in separate directions.
It's a tune-out fest.
That's not how the quads work.
They anchor from the front of the femur, surround the patella, and “pull” the tibia, straightening the leg. There is no muscle beneath the patella that “pulls” it downward. The hamstrings pull the tibia from the other side, bending the knee, but they do not connect to the patella via any muscle fibers.
I'm just not crazy about player nick names...
by Hipster Olympic Team! on Dec 7, 2009 3:00 PM PST up reply actions
Can someone please explain...
to me what happened on that play. I mean I watched the replay and at first I thought that Brooks hit his knee – but he didn’t. If you look at it – it looks like it happened when he jumped, which is just odd. No contact and break your kneecap? Anyhow it looked pretty gruesome and I’m just wondering if I’m missing something; maybe I’m just hoping he’s not that brittle.
John 8:44 -Ye are of your father the devil, and the lusts of your father ye will do.
We’ll be back.
Look at it this way. Now a guy like Jerryd Bayless has absolutely zero room to talk about lack of playing time. We get to see what Cunningham is made of, etc etc. Lots of opportunities for the young guys. You never know. Maybe Bayless turns out to be so solid that we can safely trade Miller or Blake’s expiring contract. Maybe.
"Sometimes that light at the end of the tunnel is a train."
-- Charles Barkley
I remember KP making a comment
last year, in regards to a question about Bayless. He was asked when he expected T-Rex to start looking like a legit NBA player and not like a clueless rookie (albeit the question was posed more politely).
Pritchard’s response was essentially, the middle of his second year.
Which is coming up RSN.
I am Spartacus and I approved this message
by EngineerScotty on Dec 7, 2009 10:18 AM PST up reply actions
yeah, but
Nate doesn’t see Rex as a backup PG, he sees him as an attacking SG. (This is based on on-air comments made at summer league.) Bayless is the right “size” to be a PG, but he struggles with the decision-making part of the job. I suspect Miller and Blake will be retained, as long as the front office hasn’t scuttled their short-term playoff aspirations
BTW, Patty Mills is in the same category as Jerryd. But Mills is a waterbug who shoots pull-up jumpers, not a penetrator who drives hard and draws fouls. Neither are true PGs and shouldn’t be expected to “replace” Andre or Steve
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Defensive help
Watching the injury I see that Oden had to adjust rapidly to confront the player who’d broken down the Portland defense with ease and this led to some poor foot work (because Oden didn’t have much time to react). This needs to be addressed. Batum coming back will help but we need to bring Bayless along to see if his defense is good enough (I’m thinking his foot speed should make him a good defender). Otherwise we need to get a good defensive guard to keep penetration manageable.
If we can’t do that the trailblazers should stand pat and get the roster healthy, get players playing experience (esp young players) so that the Blazers have marketable players to offer in trades.
Get well soon Greg.
His footwork is more important than Blake's inability to stop Brooks in that scenario.
It was a natural NBA play. You can’t guard a player from being in that situation again any more than you can keep a guard of Brooks’ speed and skill level out of the lane for 48 minutes.
The way it looks to me, the knee simply endured an astounding set of circumstances both rotational and compressive and the force was greater than the density of the bone.
Naturally, all of us fans would love to see Blazer perimeter D improve, although I would point out that Blake was very effective in rotating and fighting through screens at the end of the game.
I'm just not crazy about player nick names...
by Hipster Olympic Team! on Dec 7, 2009 3:07 PM PST up reply actions
Love that last sentence, Dave
The Deathstar: The Staples Center
I was born in '52, and I believe in #52. Hang in there, GO.
cue the stormtrooper music
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Dave, do you read all of the comments? I have a question for you!
What did you mean when you said “André Miller is a tough sell”? Did you mean other teams wouldn’t want him or that we need him? Or neither? I believe we need him very much. I think the chemistry between him and Roy will be just fine. Please answer if you can.
I do read the comments
though I don’t always have time to respond as I’d like.
I mean that I’m not sure Miller’s value is high around the league right now. I know his good points. I know his history. But $7 million is a big tab in these times and you’d have to find a team with pretty particular needs to take on that salary for a 30-something point guard who’s likely on his last contract. The receiving team would probably need to start Miller, meaning they’d be displacing their current point guard. They couldn’t need shooting or defense at the position. And they’d have to believe Miller made a big difference to them. In addition to all of that they’d have to have someone the Blazers wanted whom they were also willing to trade.
Contrast this with, say, a Jerryd Bayless or Rudy Fernandez—young, potential-laden, cheap—and you see the “hard sell” comparison. Miller might be able to do more for the right team than either of those two right now but Bayless and Fernandez are definitely more attractive assets.
—Dave
The receiving team would probably need to start Miller, meaning they’d be displacing their current point guard.
An long-term injury to someone like Mike Bibby could make Miller a much easier sell
But I think Roy and the rest of the kids will “need” Andre if they want to reach the playoffs this year
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
If Mike Bibby went down, Mike Woodson would probably slide Jamal Crawford into the starting ...
lineup as a floor spreader at the 1. With Joe Johnson as the primary distributor in Atlanta, the Hawks wouldn’t need a pure point like Andre Miller.
Dear Paul Allen:
Fire Nate McMillan & hire Jeff Van Gundy.
Sincerely,
AK1984
just an example
KP’s best hope of dealing Miller (or Blake, assuming he wants to flip a veteran PG) is to catch a break when a contending team’s starting PG gets hurt and their GM comes calling
there’s a lot of that going around, these days
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
orlando
We should be targeting Gortat. He is already expressing his displeasure with the situation in Orlando. He is playing limited minutes. His offensive game doesn’t clog the middle like Oden’s (get well). This would allow Roy/LA to operate more freely. We trade Blake for Gortat (and change there is about a one and a half mill difference in salaries…but since we are under the cap I think we could do it lopsided…I think). We obviously get the better player but Orl does get a player in Blake that compliments there system very well and gives them a steady hand at the pg position. Plus they get salary relief at the end of the year. With Gortat it would also present a very real twin towers possibility with Oden in the future. That is my feeling on who we should be targeting. GO BLAZERS!!!!!!!
The Patella
I would like to hear some stats on broken patellas. I have never come across this in my years of playing/coaching/being a fan. How common is this? Should anything be read into this ( I mean, there wasn’t any contact, does Oden have a bone/muscle problem?), Is this an injury from which someone can make a full recovery, like a broken hand, or is it something that forever slows you down, like a ruptured calf?
And mostly, does anyone read the Umpteenth post this far down?!?!?
Semi-common. And different versions and severities. E.g. at the moment #1 draft pick Blake Griffin has a stress fracture in the patella without having played a single NBA game. Then there are breaks of the patella with or without dislocation (Oden obviously had a very dislocated one). Lakers center Andrew Bynum had something similar 2 seasons ago, dislocation and bruise but no break. He was back within a couple of months. Then suffered an unrelated MCL injury last season. Jarvis Hayes (at that time with the Wizards) had a break and missed a season, then played all but one game the next season. He is not amazing (and likely never would have been), but continued his career on a normal trajectory. And then there are breaks and dislocations where also the surrounding ligaments and tendons get harmed. Antonio McDyess had that (ruptured patella tendon), and despite still being a quality player at an advanced age now he never was the same ever since.
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