The Sched Ahead -- 12/07/09 Week Seven -- We'll Fight On

No giving up, we go on.  We may not be able to get a high seed after all, but this team can still grab a playoff spot, and scare some teams.  We saw what happens when players like Miller and Roy get aggressive and take it to the opponent, when role players like Bayless come in and attack the hoop, when stand-up guys like Przybilla step into the gap and do a job.  So press on, and see what happens.

So here's our weekly look at the schedule imbalances among the Western contenders.

SUMMARY INFO

This weekly schedule analysis is based on four categories of games:

1. Home games against sub .500 teams.  Cream Puff Home.
2. Home games against winning teams (I'm including teams right at .500 in this category).  Jawbreaker Home.
3. Road games at losing teams.  Banana Peel Road.
4. Road games at winning teams.  Rocky Road.

A general formula for success in the NBA is to win almost all of Cat 1 (Cream Puff Home), a majority of Cat 2 (Jawbreaker Home) and Cat 3 (Banana Peel Road), and win some in Cat 4 (Rocky Road).  The contenders may win more than half of their Cat 4 games.

Back to Backs (hereafter BtoB) are also tracked so as to provide further data on schedule difficulty.

Last week's update

CHANGES THIS WEEK

Sacramento is back into the "losing team" category, being joined there by Milwaukee for the first time this season.  As explained in the past, this means all of their games, past and future, are now recategorized. 

As I said last week in the comments, if OKC finishes out this coming week over .500, I'll add them into this analysis.  Also don't sleep on the Clips, who since their brutal opening 4 game stretch are over .500 -- and they get Blake Griffin back eventually.  My spreadsheet may get crowded soon.

COMMENTS ON THE WEEK

Portland (1-1), splitting two Cat 2 Jawbreaker home games against non-elite teams.  We have to do better than .500 in that type of game, with Greg Oden or without him.

Dallas (2-2) had a weak week, winning a Cat 1 Cream Puff at home against Philly and a Cat 3 at the Nets, but then slipping on a Cat 3 Banana Peel at Memphis and dropping a Cat 2 at home to Atlanta (both teams were on a back to back).

Denver (3-0) bounced back from that home loss to Minnesota with three straight, a Cat 1 at home to the Warriors, a Cat 2 at home to Miami, and then a nice Rocky Road Cat 4 at San Antonio. 

Houston (2-1) did what they needed, getting the two they should have, back to back Cat 3 Banana Peels at the Clippers and G.S., then competing hard in a Cat 4 at Portland which barely got away from them.  It's always good to get those Cat 3 wins in the bag. 

L.A.  (3-0) continues rolling at home with three good solid wins, a Cat 1 vs. the Hornets and two Cat 2s vs. Miami and Phoenix.  I would be more impressed if both the Cat 2s had not been against opponents on a back to back, especially Miami coming off of a tough one at Denver.

N.O. (1-1) did as expected, losing a Cat 4 Rocky Road game at the L@kers and winning a Cat 1 Cream Puff against Minnesota.  Everyone beats Minnesota, so that means nothing, right?  Well, ask Denver and Utah, I guess.  Chris Paul is back. 

Phoenix (1-3) had a rough week.  Is their fast start about to come crashing down?  Well, maybe, but it was not an easy schedule for them, losing two Cat 4s at L.A. and Cleveland (both of which were on the second of a BtoB), and winning a Cat 1 Cream Puff at home against Sacramento.  The only real blow there was losing a disappointing Cat 3 Banana Peel at NY.  A bad week, but two of the three losses were pretty much expected. 

S.A. (0-2) followed their first good week of the year with a bad one, losing two tough Cat 2 Jawbreakers at home to Boston and Denver.   

Utah (2-1) closed out their homestand with two more Cat 1 Cream Puff wins, Memphis and Indiana, then turned their week into a bad one with a loss at Minnesota.  Oh, but the Jazz were on a back to back, you say, and so were tired, having to travel from Utah?  The Timberwolves were also on a back to back, played a tougher opponent the night before, had to travel from New Orleans, and weren't coming off a six game homestand.  Utah gets no sympathy from me.

Last week, Portland, Dallas, and Denver lost to bottom feeders.  This week, Dallas, Phoenix, and Houston did so.

Helped themselves:  Denver, Houston, L.A..

Meh: N.O. 

Hurt themselves:  Portland, Dallas, Phoenix, S.A., Utah.

The tables:

Cat 4 -- Rocky Road

Denver got a nice win at San Antonio, the only Cat 4 win among Western rivals this week.  Remaining games in this category are lower for all teams due to the recategorization of the Bucks and Kings.  Phoenix and Houston have the fewest difficult games remaining, L.A. the most. 

Cat 3 -- Banana Peel Road 

Gut check time, we have three games in this category this week (unless the Milwaukee game turns into a Cat 4 by the time we get there).  We have a decent record at least in part because we've been able to take care of business against losing teams on the road.  These games give us a chance to send a message to everyone that is writing us off.  Notice that every team but L.A. has lost at least one game to a losing team on the road -- and L.A. has only played one.

Cat 2 -- Jawbreaker Home

Phoenix still has a lot of tough home games left.  We have a nice chunk of our more difficult home games out of the way.  As disappointing as it is to only have won half of our home games against winning teams, Utah has done no better, and Houston and S.A. have done even worse.  We're not dead yet.

Cat 1 -- Cream Puff Home

No Cream Puff losses among the rivals this week, the losses to bad teams were all on the road.

All Home Games

Portland, Dallas, and San Antonio (twice) dropped home games this week.  Houston and Phoenix haven't been home much, L.A. has played a lot of home games (more than 3/4ths of their games so far).  The piper has to be paid, though.

All Away Games

Before this week, Western playoff contenders overall were 38-35 in road games.  That record is now 42-42 -- a poor 4-7 for the week (after going 8-3 the week before).  L.A. and S.A. have hardly seen the road.  By the end of this week, we'll have played almost as many road games as anyone.  Phoenix has played more than anyone on the road, and has two more road games this week.  Then, they'll be at home almost exclusively until the middle of January.

All Games Against Winning Teams

Houston has played the toughest schedule so far.  Some people think we've had a really easy schedule, but we've played more games against teams with winning records than five of our rivals have.  Yet, due to the uneven schedule, our road ahead isn't much tougher than Houston's, as far as the level of remaining competition. 

All Games Against Losing Teams

Notice that Dallas has already lost four games against losing teams, Denver and N.O. three each.  Last year, we only lost six of these games all year.   

Back to Back Games Remaining

Of remaining back to backs, the following are the number of games where the other team is on a back to back as well: 

Net, the games where only the Western contender in question is on a back to back:

Phoenix only has six games remaining where they are on a back to back and the other team isn't.  Of those six, four are against losing teams.  All told, look for Phoenix, with more home games and fewer net back to backs, to be improving their position.  

Now, games where we are not on a back to back, but our opponent is:

Still a big advantage for Denver here.  

The Coming Week

1. Portland.  Out on the road, with three Banana Peels (NY, Indiana, Milwaukee) and a Rocky Road Cat 4 in Cleveland.  NY is on a back to back tonight, which helps our chances.  The Cavs/Bucks games are a back to back for us.  Two wins would be a decent week, three would be superb. 
2. Dallas.  Three games.  A Cat 2 Jawbreaker hosting Phoenix, then a Cat 4 at Miami, followed by a Cat 1 at home against Charlotte (both teams on a BtoB).  The Mavs have had two weeks in a row where they lost to a losing team.
3. Denver.  Three Cat 3 Banana Peels on the road, at Philly, Charlotte (BtoB), and Detroit (Pistons will be on a BtoB).  They close with a tough Cat 2 hosting Phoenix, who will be on a back to back.
4. Houston.  After four days off, they host Cleveland on Wednesday (who will be on a BtoB), then on the road again for the Rockets, with two Banana Peels at Philadelphia and Toronto.   
5. L.A.  Two more home games, a Cat 2 against Houston and then a Cream Puff against Minnesota, and then finally, finally, finally they go on the road.  When they hit the road for Utah (Cat 4, BtoB) after that Minnesota game, they will have played 17 at home and only 4 on the road.  Saturday night will be their first game outside of California since November 13, their second since November 4th (over a month). 
6. N.O.  An opportunity for the Hornets, with CP3 back.  They start with a Cat 1 Cream Puff hosting Sacramento, go to Minnesota for a Cat 3 (both teams on a BtoB, just like Utah was in Minnesota this week), then go back home for another Cat 1 against NY.  Three wins, and their season looks a lot better than it did.  Drop one and you have to say it is a wasted opportunity.  Drop two and you're looking at a team in crisis.  
7. Phoenix.  I said above that Phoenix should have an easier schedule in the future.  You are going to have to trust me on that, because if you look at this week, it is pretty brutal.  They start with a Cat 4 Rocky Road at Dallas, then a Cat 2 at home against Orlando (was it Channing who was going to defend Dwight?  I knew there was a problem with this picture), and then on a back to back go to Denver (Cat 4).  There would be no shame in taking losses in 2 of the 3.  In fact, there would be no shame in losing all 3.  Disappointment, yes, shame no.
8. S.A.  These guys are really struggling, but should be able to make some progress this week.  Tough start to the week with a Cat 4 at Utah (but the Jazz are vulnerable), then two home Cream Puffs (the Kings who will be on a BtoB and Charlotte), and closing with a Banana Peel Cat 3 at the Clippers.  My spreadsheet doesn't like their performance at all this year.  Three wins this week would help quite a bit. 
9. Utah.  Tough week ahead for the Jazz, even though three of the four are at home -- all three are tough Cat 2 Jawbreakers.  They host the Spurs, then have a tough Cat 4 at LA, then they get the difficult LA/Utah back to back, arriving late from LA and having a tough opponent waiting for them (Orlando).  Finally, the close the week by hosting LA, who will be on that same LA/Utah BtoB. 

Tonight sets up the road trip.  Win tonight, and we really only need one more win out of the next three to be a decent trip, and we have a decent chance to do better and have a really, really good trip.  Lose this one, and we'll have three games remaining on the trip, none of which is likely to be easy.  A win puts us two over .500 on the road for the season.

Feeling Down about Greg?  How about Tickets for Greg?

One of the best ways to pick yourself up is to quit think about yourself, and do something for someone else.  And Greg is the kind of guy that would be really pleased if you bought some tickets for kids in his honor and sent him a note saying so.  Dave needs to give us an update, but apparently all tickets aren't sold yet, or he'd have told us.  Here is Dave's original post announcing the 400 ticket target.  Here is Dave's latest post saying over 300 of the 400 have been sold. 

Dave's description:

Blazersedge Night:  Monday, January 25th:  Blazers vs. Hornets

Tickets sell for $22 each.  There is a $5 service charge per order no matter what the size.  Save money by buying tickets together with friends.

How to Order

You can call the Blazers directly at 503-797-9637.  PLEASE MAKE SURE to tell them you're ordering for Blazersedge Night and that you want the tickets to be donated to the kids.  (Side Note:  We also have a block of tickets reserved for BE folks who want to attend.  You can buy seats for yourself if you wish.)  The Blazers accept all of the usual forms of payment.

You can also make a PayPal donation to blazersedge22@yahoo.com.  We will pool the money collected and purchase tickets with it.  You can donate enough for multiple tickets or even partial amounts...anything is welcome.

You can also e-mail me directly at blazersub@yahoo.com  if you'd prefer to send a check via snail mail.