The Irony of the 2006 and 2007 Drafts

by John Park Williams on Dec 6, 2009 11:49 PM PST

In 2006, it was thought that the Blazers could not have picked a worst year to have the league's worst record. The 2006 Draft was the first draft with the age limit, so, in theory, all the best players from the high school class of 2005 had gone pro in 2005, while all the best players from the class of 2006 were off to college (namely, Kevin Durant and Greg Oden).

To add insult to injury, the Blazers, who had a .25 chance of landing the #1 overall pick, wound up with the 4th pick, the lowest possible slot they could have gotten. In a draft with no franchise caliber players, the Blazers wound up picking 4th.

However, draft day comes, and the Bulls, picking at #2, for whatever reason are convinced that a forward tandem of Victor Khryapa and Tyrus Thomas will win them some championships, so they take LaMarcus Aldridge on condition that that the Blazers take Tyrus Thomas, so the three players can swap teams. Then, a couple of picks progress, and the Bobcats take Adam Morrison (who started crying when his team was down 3 in an NCAA tournament game) at #3, and the Hawks take Ken Griffey Jr. on nerve tonic at #5.

Then, the Timberwolves think that Randy Foye was simply better than Brandon Roy, and the Celtics are convinced that Sebastian Telefair is Isiah Thomas, so the Celtics get Telefair, the Timberwolves get Foye, and the Blazers get the third option, Brandon Roy.

Fast forward three years, and it is clear that the Blazers got the best player in the draft by miles in Roy, and, arguably, the 2nd best player in the draft in Aldridge. The 2006 draft, a draft which everyone claimed was the weakest in years, turned the Portland Trail Blazers into contenders. It simply could not have worked out any better.

After improving significantly in Roy and Aldridge's rookie year, the Blazers now have only the 7th best chance of winning the lottery in the stacked 2007 NBA Draft. But, the Blazers get the #1 overall pick, and take Greg Oden, who Chad Ford definitively calls the best center since Tim Duncan. The Sonics take Kevin Durant at #2.

The NBA is funny. The Blazers got screwed over in the 2006 lottery, yet somehow got the two best players. But they won the 2007 lottery despite having 20:1 odds, and got Greg Oden.

Just think of all the crazy things that had to happen for the Blazers to wind up at this exact spot. What if Blazers don't trade away the chance to take Chris Paul in 2005? What if Blazers win the 2006 Draft? Who do they take? Bargnani? No chance in hell, right? What if the Timberwolves take Roy? Do the Blazers still trade Telefair for Foye? What if Sonics win the 2007 Lottery, and the Blazers get the 2nd pick? Does Seattle take Oden? Do the Blazers get Durant?

I just think that its ironic that the Blazers found two gems in the "worst draft ever", and landed the jackpot in 2007, only to cause it so much heartbreak.

Tweet Comment 19 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Oden is my favorite Blazer

but if I could switch Oden for Durant right now, I would. I still believe that Pritchard made the right pick but in hindsight Durant should have been the way to go. Imagine a Trio of Roy, Durant and Aldridge. We could even trade Roy for Paul since we have so much trouble getting a PG. HAH………………………………………………… Now that takes my mind off of losing Oden for another year.
Keep the faith Greg and you will be back better than ever!

by VinnyB on Dec 7, 2009 4:16 AM PST reply actions

If you think Roy and LA have a hard time sharing with Oden...

imagine them trying to play with Durant. And imagine Durant trying to play with other legitimate scoring threats.

Durant is great. He’ll probably always be health. Even if Oden had never been hurt, Durant was almost certainly the more talented player. But Oden was the right call, and if he can stay health, still is the right call, in my opinion. The Blazers will learn how to play with Oden, and his ability to warp the game around him will be far more valuable to us than Durant could have been.

Let’s just hope Oden can get healthy and stay that way.

by DC Blazer on Dec 7, 2009 8:57 AM PST reply actions

Thank you.

I am tired of hearing “Imagine if we had Durant instead of Oden.” Well, I can imagine it and isn’t guaranteed championships.

1. Durant requires the ball more than anyone we have, other than Roy, and we’ve already seen the trouble that’s been created with Roy having to lower his amount of touches. I’m not sure how well they’d mesh.
2. Durant doesn’t play D and when he does, he doesn’t do it well. His offensive numbers will light up the stat sheet, but his lack of defense would hurt the team. And we need all the defense we can get, which is a huge reason Oden was the obvious choice at the time.
3. Centers win championships, small forwards without D need a lot more help. As good as Durant might seem to some, I see a long time all-star, but not a champion.

Above all else, Oden was easily the best big man talent since Duncan and coming into a league that is so weak at center it’s amazing. Shaq and Duncan are on their way out, Ming could be too, and the only really good big man in the league plays in the East for the Magic. A healthy Oden was set to dominate the league. You go with that every time with your #1 pick and don’t think twice.

by Coastie07 on Dec 8, 2009 3:07 PM PST up reply actions

I'm maybe Oden's biggest fan

so I wouldn’t trade Oden for Durant, even right now today, so ya I am crazy I guess. But I don’t like Durant on this team as it is currently constructed, Roy and KD would not get along on the court. Now if the Blazers would have selected Durant and traded Roy + Zbo for someone to fill the center or point (maybe D. Harris?) then this team could have used KD to his potential.

But I don’t like looking back, and saying what if. I like this team, I still LOVE Oden and his game, and I still BELIEVE in Greg, he is only 21, and his play this year was awsome. I believe he will do the work it takes for him to not only come back next year, but be better than he was this year, which is scary. Freak injuries don’t scare me for the long run, they only pull my heart out in the short term.

Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?

by usmcr3049 on Dec 7, 2009 12:44 PM PST reply actions

I don't think the number one pick in '07 has caused any heartbreak yet...

Oden is only 21. He still has a lot of time to prove he was worthy of the number one pick. You can’t compare Oden to Durant. They’re clearly two way different players who impact the game in different ways. The Blazers already have a scorer in Roy. Big men win championships so the Blazers made the right call. But give it a couple more years before you decide that Oden has broken every Trail Blazer fans heart. 2 freak injuries that happen to be close together shouldn’t worry anyone. I know now every TRUE Blazer fan, not those bandwagon fans, are heartbroken. But Oden will make up for lost time.

by Aaron Sass on Dec 7, 2009 1:27 PM PST reply actions

You could argue that Oden was better than urant.

Value is relative. There are plenty of good 3s in the league.

Keep your expectations low and you won't be disappointed.

by Benjamanic on Dec 7, 2009 2:00 PM PST reply actions

Seriously? How?

by Dominator13 on Dec 7, 2009 4:17 PM PST up reply actions

D. Note the use of the past tense and the word "relative".

Oden was a dominant center. His offensive game wasn’t developed, but he played a season without his good hand and still managed, which indicates that he wasn’t an exactly oafish in the skill department. He effected shots and was a great rebounder. How many great, real deal true centers were in the league at the time? Shaq was rapidly approaching being past his prime, so there was Dwight Howard and Yao. They didn’t know Brook Lopez would be as good as he is.

Good small forwards? Deng, Pierce, LeBron, Carmelo, Josh Howard, Marion, Wallace, Artest, Jefferson, Butler, and Josh Smith played some 3 as did Odom.

Durant may score a lot, but how many points is he responsible for giving up and how many shots does he need to get his numbers? When Nate was quoted as saying “We scored more points than they did”, it sounded retarded, but what he obviously meant was that there was no defense to speak of. Both teams shot the ball unmolested and more shots happened to have went in for the Blazers. In a win, how many points you score is relative to how many points you’re preventing the opposing team from scoring. Looking at team defense, Oden clearly took more points away from the opposing team than Durant ever could. The rebounding isn’t even close either.

They knew Durant was a great scorer. Other than that…he weighed about 150 lbs at 6’9". Oden played great D at the last line of defense for a basketball team. He rebounded. He had the athletic potential to score and good raw skills for a big man. He’s also more than willing to pass the ball. Overall, he could do more things to help a team’s cause than Durant could as a scoring 3. This is probably why pretty much everybody in the league said “Draft Oden” at the time. Any GM would have done it. So yeah, seriously.

Keep your expectations low and you won't be disappointed.

by Benjamanic on Dec 7, 2009 10:04 PM PST up reply actions

I think

that Oden can still do well moving forward. He isn’t like Bowie and Walton in this respect: Oden is traditional college age now(this should be his senior year at Ohio State), and Bowie and Walton were not when they had their injury problems. Bowie probably wouldn’t have been a Blazer if he didn’t get hurt so much at Kentucky. He probably would have been drafted in 1982 or 83, depending on when he wanted to come out.

That being said, if Greg doesn’t come back and stay healthy, I think that teams should really investigate before taking that “franchise” big man at or near the top of the draft. MJ was the better choice in 1984, obviously(although he was considered a ball hog early on, and was almost traded to the Clippers in 1988) and Jay Williams should have went ahead of Yao Ming in 2002. The only thing that stopped him was the motorcycle accident. Also, Pierce, Vince Carter, or Nowitzki should have been the #1 pick in 1998, not Michael Bustowakandi.

by PABroncofan on Dec 7, 2009 2:38 PM PST reply actions

jordan was almost traded to the clippers?

I had not heard that. Please explain.

by John Park Williams on Dec 7, 2009 3:07 PM PST up reply actions

That's a rumor I've heard before too.

Jordan wasn’t always looked at like he is now. Before Pippen got there and took them to the next level, it was only Jordan and he was looked at as an amazing talent, but not a champion and somewhat of a ball hog. Winning rings changes perception.

by Coastie07 on Dec 8, 2009 3:39 PM PST up reply actions

in regards to the '84 draft

I still think given the top pick, I would take Hakeem and not Jordan.

by NWfan on Dec 7, 2009 3:43 PM PST up reply actions

Anybody would at the time.

Hakeem was guaranteed championships. No one knew Jordan would become what he did and how could anyone think he would. Hakeem was unlike anything we’ve ever seen at the time, or since. He could move and do things no one has ever come close at that size. When you have a center like that, it’s just so much clearer how good they will make your team. And to be honest, things would have been a lot different if Jordan hadn’t landed Pippen, basically the perfect player for a Jordan team. Hakeem would have won championships with pretty much any team at some point during his career.

by Coastie07 on Dec 8, 2009 3:16 PM PST up reply actions

And especially Portland

With the team we had, if we win that pick and get Hakeem, we get five championships, easily.

#52

by jscot on Dec 9, 2009 3:51 AM PST up reply actions

Yeah there’s plenty of draft classes we can look at and criticize. For example the ’01 draft. Kwame Brown was taken #1 and Tyson Chandler #2. Both ahead of Pau Gasol who was taken 3rd.

The number 5 pick in that draft was Eddie Griffin and the number 6 pick was Shane Battier. Both ahead of Joe Johnson who was picked 10th by Boston and then traded to Phoenix. Richard Jefferson wasn’t picked until pick 13 and Tony Parker was the last pick of the first round and Gilbert Arenas was the second pick in the second round.

The problem with Oden is that he was hyped like crazy. Also because of the history of the Blazers with taking Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan and Sam Bowie always being injured fans and media members figure that it’s the same thing with Oden and Durant. Durant a great scored like MJ though he’s not near as good as MJ but nevertheless a high volume scorer. Greg Oden an “injury prone” big man. Oden was the right pick. In time Oden will prove that. Oden will be just fine. He’s figured out the NBA game somewhat so when he comes back it won’t be like the first time around when he came back.

by Aaron Sass on Dec 7, 2009 7:10 PM PST up reply actions

This post ....

makes me want to drink…. alot.

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out, burns out farms, and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
Head Czar of Amerika <--- Mortimer said so so there!!!

by faith on Dec 7, 2009 2:38 PM PST reply actions

Ken Griffey Jr on nerve tonic

LOL. That is hilarious!

Two points scored by GO’ = "thunderdunk"

by T$ 225 on Dec 8, 2009 11:44 AM PST reply actions

Why does the media love Durant so much?

The whole media/non-Blazers fan joke that Oden is our Sam Bowie to Oklahoma City’s Jordan is just that. A joke. And it makes me little sick. I don’t know if Oden will ever have a healthy career, but I do know that Durant will never be a Jordan. Durant will never even be a champion. Kevin Durant is an elite scorer who (many argue) plays horrific defense and has no court vision, and who by certain not-really-controversial metrics actually makes his team worse. That does not spell out champion. Not too mention, he’s a small forward, which just happens to be the position that is least likely to lead a team to a championship. Just try it, name all the champions that were led by their small forward. Then after you give up, think of all the champions led by the other positions. Then think how much a healthy Oden resembles a championship type player. I’m sorry, if you want to win a championship, you still pick Oden. In the end, we might get only one healthy year out of him that leads us to a championship. I’ll take that over a 10 year all-star that never leads us to anything.

by Coastie07 on Dec 9, 2009 9:58 PM PST reply actions

A little more on Durant taken from an ESPN article

The Thunder have, over the last two years, consistently performed worse than normal when Durant is on the floor. Any way you slice the +/- numbers, he’s one of the Thunder’s worst players.

You read that correctly. Kevin Durant, uniformly regarded as an out-of-this-world NBA player, has been killing his team.

Sometimes +/- can punish players simply for being on bad teams, but this is more than that. Mavericks’ statistical expert Wayne Winston’s in-depth lineup data shows that every one of Durant’s key teammates — Russell Westbrook, Jeff Green, Nenad Krstic, Nick Collison — gets better, in many cases far better, results playing with less heralded teammates Thabo Sefolosha or Kyle Weaver while Durant sits.

In fact, almost nobody on the Thunder has a +/- rating as poor as Durant’s. Winston rates Durant’s performance “in the lowest 10% of all NBA players.”

by Coastie07 on Dec 9, 2009 10:04 PM PST up reply actions