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Around SBN: Explaining Jeremy Lin's Early, Surprising Success

A simple how-to guide on patching up a bruised roster.

Step #1: Come tomorrow, waive Patty Mills & sign D-Leaguer Dwayne Jones of the Austin Toros.

http://www.nba.com/dleague/playerfile/index.jsp?player=dwayne_jones

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Dwayne-Jones-438/

Jones, who's a standout rebounder -- especially on the offensive glass -- and post defender, will provide immediate insurance as Joel Przybilla's backup until a trade can be made to patch the hole caused by Greg Oden's absence due to injury. (Cap space would become $1,425,171 + $323,312 {i.e., $457,588 / 170 X 119} - $577,848 {i.e.,  $825,497 / 170 X 119} = $1,170,635.)

Step #2: Come 12/17/2009, trade Juwan Howard -- along with the draft rights of Victor Claver & Petteri Koponen -- to Toronto for Rasho Nesterovic. (Cap space would become $1,170,635 + $825,497 - $1,990,000 = $6,132.)

Step #3: After 12/17/2009 & before Christmas, trade Travis Outlaw & Jerryd Bayless to Oklahoma City for Nick Collison. ($3,600,000 + $2,143,080 = $5,743,080 X 125% + 100,000 = $7,278,850 & that's > $6,250,000.)

Step #4: After "Step #3," sign Reece Gaines.

ROSTER (By Christmas Day)

C: Joel Przybilla (28 m.p.g.)
C: Rasho Nesterovic (20 m.p.g.)
C: Dwayne Jones (0 m.p.g.)
C: Greg Oden (Inactive)
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge (32 m.p.g.)
PF: Nick Collison (16 m.p.g.)
PF: Dante Cunningham (0 m.p.g.)
PF: Jeff Pendergraph (Inactive)
SF: Martell Webster (28 m.p.g.)
SF/SG: Rudy Fernandez (28 m.p.g.)
SF: Nicolas Batum (Inactive)
SG: Brandon Roy (40 m.p.g.)
SG: Reece Gaines (0 m.p.g.)
PG: Steve Blake (20 m.p.g.)
PG: Andre Miller (28 m.p.g.)

FIRST QUARTER & THIRD QUARTER

SIX MINUTES
C: Joel Przybilla
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge
SF: Martell Webster
SG: Brandon Roy
PG: Steve Blake

TWO MINUTES

C: Rasho Nesterovic
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge
SF: Rudy Fernandez
SG: Brandon Roy
PG: Andre Miller

FOUR MINUTES

C: Rasho Nesterovic
PF: Nick Collison
SF: Rudy Fernandez
SG: Brandon Roy
PG: Andre Miller

SECOND QUARTER & FOURTH QUARTER

FOUR MINUTES

C: Rasho Nesterovic
PF: Nick Collison
SF: Martell Webster
SG: Rudy Fernandez
PG: Andre Miller

FOUR MINUTES

C: Joel Przybilla
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge
SF: Martell Webster
SG: Brandon Roy
PG: Steve Blake

FOUR MINUTES

C: Joel Przybilla
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge
SF: Rudy Fernandez
SG: Brandon Roy
PG: Andre Miller

That, folks, would be a playoff team with the potential advance to the second round this season.

P.S.: I expect Rudy Fernandez will return to full health before Christmas. Yet, even if Fernandez's back injury is serious, I still advocate acquiring Nick Collison at the cost of Travis Outlaw and Jerryd Bayless -- whose natural position offense in the high-low zone offense is the ballside wing (i.e., Brandon Roy's spot), which was shown by his on-ball playing style and 0 assists tonight -- although the team would probably need to subsequently sign a versatile SF/SG/PG type player from the D-League (e.g., Reece Gaines) for depth purposes.

P.P.S.: After having second thoughts, I feel as if I originally undersold Victor Claver. Even though I'm not a fan of unrefined Euro combo forwards like Claver, he should have more trade value than someone who's used to acquire a backup center. Plus, Petteri Koponen is probably enough of a prospect to entice Toronto into parting ways with Rasho Nesterovic.

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What do I do with Rasho, Joel, Jones, LaMarcus, Collison, Dante, and Pendy?

The Blazers didn’t have quite enough depths for the 4 and especially 5 spots, but that’s overkill. I like just picking up some DL guy like Jones (Blazers can petition for an emergency replacement for 2 weeks at a time with more than 4 guys out for more than 2 weeks into the future), and then hoping Pendergraph has a good rookie season after he returns around New Years to have a rotation of Joel (starting), LMA (starting, first C backup), Pendy (second C backup), Dante (second PF backup), Howard (third PF/C backup). Then we can still see what develops until the deadline.

by Norsktroll on Dec 6, 2009 12:55 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

Meh, I'd rather overload the frontline and let the wing players receive extended minutes. Even if Rudy ...

Fernandez is injured for a lengthy period of time and Jerryd Bayless is dealt in a package for Nick Collison, Portland could use with the following rotation of perimeter players.

FIRST QUARTER & THIRD QUARTER

FOUR MINUTES
SF: Martell Webster
SG: Brandon Roy
PG: Steve Blake

FOUR MINUTES
SF: Martell Webster
SG: Brandon Roy
PG: Andre Miller

FOUR MINUTES
SF(Offense): Steve Blake
SG: Brandon Roy
PG: Andre Miller

SECOND QUARTER & FOURTH QUARTER

FOUR MINUTES
SF: Martell Webster
SG: D-Leaguer (e.g., Reece Gaines)
PG: Andre Miller

FOUR MINUTES
SF: Martell Webster
SG: Brandon Roy
PG: Steve Blake

FOUR MINUTES
SF(Offense): Steve Blake
SG: Brandon Roy
PG: Andre Miller

In that case, Brandon Roy would have to pick it up defensively — as he’d be defending opposing 3s roughly 16 minutes per game in that so-called three-guard lineup — but I’d expect him to be down for the challenge.

Anyhow, that just shows how the perimeter would survive even with injuries to one or two guys (i.e., Nicolas Batum and Rudy Fernandez) and the departure of Jerryd Bayless.

Dear Paul Allen:

Fire Nate McMillan & hire Jeff Van Gundy.

Sincerely,
AK1984

by AK1984 on Dec 6, 2009 1:31 AM PST up reply actions  

Oh, and regarding Dante Cunningham and Jeff Pendergraph, Cunningham should be used strictly as a ...

third-string power forward during his rookie deal — which lasts through next season — and I’m for waiving Pendergraph next summer if Joel Freeland is ready to come to America from across the pond. Freeland, of course, has a buyout of around $500,000 — although I’m unsure of the exact figure — so it isn’t a given that he’ll be in Portland to start the 2010-2011 season. At any rate, though, the Trail Blazers are still in desperate need a quality backup power forward of Nick Collison’s ilk.

Dear Paul Allen:

Fire Nate McMillan & hire Jeff Van Gundy.

Sincerely,
AK1984

by AK1984 on Dec 6, 2009 1:45 AM PST up reply actions  

I dont wanna see Bayless go though :(

The ability to destroy a planet is insignificant next to the power of Greg Oden.

by fajunga on Dec 6, 2009 1:27 AM PST reply actions  

This doesn't make a whole lot of long term sense.

This season is a bit of a waste, I would be more concerned about building and developing a roster for next year. Winning is still important, but I wouldn’t be dealing guys for a shot term fix.

by Nick Van Excellent on Dec 6, 2009 1:40 AM PST reply actions  

For me, I don't feel Jerryd Bayless is the long-term answer at the 1 — as he's a natural 2, especially in ...

this offense — while I don’t put much stock into Victor Claver and Petteri Koponen as worthwhile prospects.

I, moreover, find diminutive waterbug Patty Mills to be J.J. Barea at best and Mike Wilks at worst; as a result, I support casting him to the wayside immediately.

Dear Paul Allen:

Fire Nate McMillan & hire Jeff Van Gundy.

Sincerely,
AK1984

by AK1984 on Dec 6, 2009 1:49 AM PST up reply actions  

If he's really that bad then other teams will know it.

I doubt you or I have a scouting report on him that’s going to be as thorough as any team trading for him. Therefore it’s pointless. Either he has potential and we should keep him, or he’s worthless as a trade chip.

If Bayless can shoot, something only the coaching staff would really know considering his limited game minutes, then we should hold on to him.

We still need a long term solution at PG. Miller is way less valuable without Oden. Blake is absolutely terrible. I would really only trade Bayless if it meant we got another PG back. (Hinrich, West, Conley, etc.)

by Nick Van Excellent on Dec 6, 2009 2:01 AM PST up reply actions  

At the off guard spot, I'd settle with Steve Blake playing out the season and then drafting a guy ...

in the first round of the 2010 NBA Draft like Avery Bradley — who’s a defensive-minded off guard with Devin Harris/Russell Westbrook level potential — to be Andre Miller’s understudy for the 2010-2011 season. Unlike Jerryd Bayless, Bradley is physically well-equipped defender — as he possesses a long wingspan — and can play off the ball effectively. Braldey would need to work on his mid-range jumper and ability to stretch the floor, but other than that he’d be a nice long-term fit next to Roy and short-term fit next to Rudy Fernandez off the bench.

Dear Paul Allen:

Fire Nate McMillan & hire Jeff Van Gundy.

Sincerely,
AK1984

by AK1984 on Dec 6, 2009 2:10 AM PST up reply actions  

You've got to trade Blake if you aren't going to resign him.

There’s no way the Blazers just let him walk. I’m guessing they bring him back and start him until he’s forty.

by Nick Van Excellent on Dec 6, 2009 2:13 AM PST up reply actions  

Agreed

We can still salvage some value out of him. With our window being pushed back another year, there’s no reason to hold on to Blake anymore. Expiring contracts have value, and there are a number of playoff teams that could use a savvy veteran point guard that at the end of the season will come off the books, so they can make a run at this years FA crop.

CHI, LAC, MIA
and just the bad teams looking for cap space
NJ, NYK

by as11osu on Dec 6, 2009 8:22 AM PST up reply actions  

Just sign D.Jones

and wait for Pendergraph to get healthy to see what he can do. We need to wait till Outlaw gets healthy too before we can trade him so KP needs to take the time to figure out what to do and not just make changes for he sake of it. Also I would never trade Bayless for a big, we need to get back a good young PG then I’d think about it.

by VinnyB on Dec 6, 2009 3:12 AM PST reply actions  

+ 1

      DON’T PANIC !!! IT’S NOT SMART !!!
As we say to padawan learners, "Breathe . . . Breathe and again, Breathe "

It's GO time !

by walkoff41 on Dec 6, 2009 4:03 AM PST up reply actions  

I agree with first 2, but not #3

I do think Bayless is a 2, perhaps a combo guard at best. However, he does have one NBA skill that I value quite a bit, which is the ability to blow by his guy and either score or draw fouls on a big.

While I like Collison quite a bit, Bayless has a high ceiling as compared to a good backup like Collison. I’d rather send away Blake and see what Bayless-Rudy backcourt can do as subs before making any rash trades. It’s not like Bayless had much of a run with us so far. At least give him a chance to see if he’s worth further investment in time and coaching.

by xedubx on Dec 6, 2009 3:56 AM PST reply actions  

I trade for Rasho in about zero seconds if it's for Petteri and Juwan

Victor Claver is another story entirely.

Just based on basic value you can’t trade Bayless and Outlaw for Collison. He’s just not worth that much. Long term guys like Bayless merit more than a 2 year band-aid (Collison), even if you don’t like Bayless’ game.

by as11osu on Dec 6, 2009 8:05 AM PST reply actions  

Can I use this as a kind of trade drawer? I would really like to have Gerald Wallace now

Sounds odd, and yeah as stated above I would be in favor of bringing in another emergency big men like Jones too.
But since no other center like Greg is even remotely available anywhere, he would help with the three or four things that as Dave has pointed out in his recap are likely gone now with Greg:

  • Improved offensive rebounding
  • Improved defensive rebounding. While not a big man, he rebounds like one. At times leading the league.
  • Improved perimeter defense to take pressure off the players in the paint. Maybe his most underrated skill.
  • Improved scoring as a 2nd or 3rd option. Now that Greg is gone, it doesn’t matter as much that he can’t space the floor (not a huge proponent of that strategy anyway), and can bring a lot more easy points inside also from free throws and the mentioned offensive rebounding.

Lastly, there is some irony that he is running the floor hard while still crashing to the floor every now and then, but unlike a number of other wings including our own he doesn’t stay down long. Health is impossible to predict. I would have sworn on Tayshaun Prince at the start of this season, and now he had a herniated disk and who knows in what condition he returns. Same with Travis who was super healthy so far.

It’s probably a pipe dream, but he would help a lot with about everything Greg’s absence has created. Problem is that with so many guys injured, pulling off such a deal now seems very hard to achieve even though Larry Brown seems to have turned on pretty much every player he found on his rosters when he took over. Also incl. D.J. Augustin, but there is debate over how much of an upgrade for the future he could become. At the last deadline it would have been possible for RLEC and one of the young players, now probably not.

Speaking of perimeter defense and rebounding: Free Bayless as a backup or low-minutes starter a la Nic last year. If we likely don’t make much noise in the playoffs this year anyway, we can just as well find out what he can do for the team. Last night he already rebounded and drove inside better than Blake ever will, and he and Miller also led the comeback emotionally alongside Roy. If he doesn’t have the distribution and shooting skills required to play alongside Roy/Rudy in the future fine, but at least try to find that out NOW! Along the same lines, Martell, Rudy, Dante, Pendergraph upon his return need to get all the playing time the coaches can free up. It makes little sense now to have Brandon as the player with the most minutes in the NBA running around further endangering even his tank going on empty, and playing other old players ahead of those.

by Norsktroll on Dec 6, 2009 8:18 AM PST reply actions  

Wallace would be awesome.

He’s a better PF than Aldridge (IMHO), so a small unit with Aldridge at the 5 wouldn’t look so bad.

by Nick Van Excellent on Dec 6, 2009 8:56 AM PST up reply actions  

Also...

Remember when Bynum went down a few seasons ago? That led to the Gasol trade. Stranger things have happened.

by Nick Van Excellent on Dec 6, 2009 8:57 AM PST up reply actions  

I have long hated the idea of getting crash to play the 3 here.

His lack of outside shooting will cause the same problems that Miller’s has. Getting him to play the 4, and moving LA to the 5 is an idea I could definitely get behind, depending on who KP would have to send away…

RUDY > MJ
#52

by Rudiculous on Dec 6, 2009 11:44 AM PST up reply actions  

What exactly are you basing your thoughts on Claver on?

How can you possibly say he’s not a worthwhile prospect at this point?

by AndrewD on Dec 6, 2009 9:07 AM PST reply actions  

spanish people count as white

so you should know that you love claver unconditionally

dinasour type of guys choir boys

by mittsabishy on Dec 6, 2009 10:30 AM PST reply actions  

They should have a new rating for fanposts...

REC doesn’t quite capture my sentiments.

COMEDY GOLD.

Keep up the good work!

:)

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Dec 6, 2009 11:11 AM PST reply actions  

I would never do any of these things

The season is clearly over. This is a chance to experiment, see how lineups work, integrate Miller fully into the offense, help Roy learn how to play off the ball more, and see how this team responds to adversity. If we get another injury, we’ll talk. But right now we still have one more than the minimum number of bodies.

by Seven06Renault on Dec 6, 2009 11:13 AM PST reply actions  

I would never, ever, ever trade Bayless and Outlaw for Collison...

But getting a guy like Collison is the right idea. I think KP pretty much has to work atrade that sends either Blake or Miller away for a 4/5 to help out down low. Joel and LMA as our only legit bigs is not going to cut it…

RUDY > MJ
#52

by Rudiculous on Dec 6, 2009 11:42 AM PST reply actions  

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