Revised expectations and what's next
by EngineerScotty on Dec 5, 2009 11:12 PM PST
Email
Print
With GO likely done for the year, I suspect that many of us--even if we would prefer not to--are revising our season predictions downward. Not just because of Oden, but the other injuries as well--Outlaw and Batum, mainly, and Rudy's lingering back issues. The playoffs may well be within reach--we got there last year with Oden being ineffective or out for much of the year--but winning the NW, or advancing in the playoffs, might be a tall order.
OTOH, this team without Oden and Batum both more resembles the 07-08 team, which went 41-41 but didn't make the playoffs.
So, two questions:
1) What should the expectations going forward be? Assume that Batum and Outlaw come back on schedule, and no major roster moves. Is this a legit playoff team? If the Blazers fail to make it, should heads roll? How far do we dial back the goals, or the clock?
2) How hard should KP try to make the playoffs and advance THIS YEAR? If San Antonio, for example, were to offer us a live healthy body of reasonable skill, for Nic Batum--physical waived--would you consider it? Or should we limit ourselves to minor moves--signing journeymen big men off the waiver wire, or small potatoes trades, but avoid touching the "core", however you define that, even if it means the difference between the playoffs and not?
To make timbo happy, I won't post a poll on this, just looking for discussion.
My thoughts: If we make the playoffs, I'll be very happy. If we don't, I won't be getting out my pitchforks.
I would NOT do anything stupid just to try and get a playoff birth. There are a few guys on the team who I wouldn't mind parting with (Outlaw and Blake come to mind, although the former is hurt, the latter hasn't played well, and both are FAs at the end of the year), but I wouldn't have minded a trade involving them even before tonight. The injury makes be a bit less picky about what I'd take back in return, I suppose...
22 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
i predict nba championships
as oden makes his return on game 3 of the nba finals in the RG. the blazer, down 2-0 at that point, win the next 4.
i wont be mad if that doesnt happen, though
bayless leaves over my dead body
Start Andre (in a 2 guard lineup)
"Good defense always beats bad offense."-Al Iannazzone, Yes Network
if you should strike Oden down he will become more powerful than you can possibly imagine
by thomasikehara on Dec 5, 2009 11:16 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
If this team makes the playoffs, I'll be impressed.
They can do it, but it’ll be tough. Do not make any shortsighted stupid moves. Do play Bayless.
#52
We did it last year, we can do it again.
"Rudy is not everyday a shooter," Fernandez said. "He's defense. He's passes. He's assists."
We did it last year WITH Oden. We now have only one center. That's not a playoff roster.
by dario argento on Dec 6, 2009 12:04 AM PST up reply actions
We can make the playoffs.
Believe.
The ability to destroy a planet is insignificant next to the power of Greg Oden.
Time for Brandon and LMA
to earn their $$$, whatever else you think.
I am Spartacus and I approved this message
My answers
Question 1: This year is a mulligan. The main things I’d be looking for is effort and improvement from players, and with a legit superstar in Roy and a second option like LMA, this team should be a fringe (seed 6-8) playoff contender. If I were Nate, I would lean heavily on Miller (assuming he isn’t moved) and Bayless at the point – this team needs firepower, and I think Blake had a career year last year. Bayless needs to play – given the injuries, Portland needs to see what this guy can do with 15-20 mpg. I would look to move either Miller or Blake, whichever isn’t part of the plan for next season (I’d choose Blake because Miller is a better fit with GO) for a young backup at a need position – Bass and Gortat from Orlando come to mind, although Gortat would probably cost more than just a PG. As for evaluations, I don’t think an assessment of any coaches/front office types can be made given the injury situation.
Question 2: Again, as I said above, this year has been a wreck thus far. Don’t compound it by making a Jermaine O’Neal for Dale Davis type move chasing a 6-8 seed. I’d rather see moves for young backup caliber pieces if trades are in the works, otherwise roll with the healthy guys on the roster and see if they can grind out a playoff slot.
As negative as it sounds, this is not last year. The Rockets gave the quality teams in the NBA the blueprint for stopping the B Roy dominant Blazers. GO’s development was the best chance of short circuiting that plan. If LMA, Rudy, Miller, Bayless, etc. can step up, this could change. But good teams, playoff teams are going to start looking at Portland as a “W” rather than a question mark on the schedule.
Always supporting Greg Oden.
I wouldn't do a O'Neal for Davis type of a deal, but I'd swing for the fences if given opportunity
This is Greg’s second serious injury and it’ll likely impact his ceiling as a player given the likely degradation of his athleticism and loss of year of development. If he does return without any after effects, great. But, it is more likely that the athletic freak that dominated AAU ball and in one year at Ohio State is probably no more.
As I’ve argued before, NBA is a superstar league and with the exception of the ‘04 Pistons, no team without at least one elite superstar has won the championship in last 30 years. While Roy is a second level player and top ten player at his best, he doesn’t belong in the conversation among the true elites of the league. I don’t know about you, but if I am going into a seven game series with kobes and LeBrons of the league, I do not think “well, Roy will negate their main guy’s production so it’ll come down to the rest.” Instead, I think “well, we have a disadvantage there but I’m hoping our other players outplay their other players”.
While I hope Greg makes full recovery and also think Batum has a high ceiling, I am also hoping that KP is looking for a home run move now. We need to start preparing for a future where Greg is not the top two player in this team and plan accordingly. A little move here and there is good. But if an all-star is available, we really should think about making a move for that guy now.
The only All-Star/true homerun I see on the market this year
worth dealing for is Bosh, and that will cost at the very least LMA, one or both of Rudy and Batum (and only if the Raptors are comfortable with their health), and maybe Bayless. I haven’t run the salaries, but if Bosh is coming, the Raptors are parting with filler after that, and they will want some good young players with multi-year deals to build around. Add to that Bosh can walk, and I think that’s a risk not worth taking. If Bosh indicates a willingness to sign with Portland long term, then I’d go for it. The only way this happens is if Toronto becomes convinced there is no way he resigns with them, which by all accounts could very well be the case.
I actually think with GO healthy, this team can make a sustained run at the top like that Detroit team, with hopefully more titles. Roy, Rudy, Nic, LMA, Greg, etc. is a core comparable in may ways to the balance brought to bear by that Detroit squad on the offensive end, with GO having the same defensive/rebounding impact as Big Ben. I just don’t know if Greg’s body is going to allow him to do it, which is really a sad thought, but at this point, one that is on the table. Just a sad day all around.
Always supporting Greg Oden.
by blazeraddict on Dec 6, 2009 11:45 AM PST up reply actions
KP, please don't go for it this year. Don't make some stupid trade like Rudy, Bayless, and Batum for a mediocre center that will help us in the short term but hamper us long term.
This year is now officially a write off. Every win will be sweet. The playoffs would be amazing. But I for one am not hoping for anything.
I would love to see something happen with Orlando.
I bet they could use a steady hand like blake, would they do Blake + filler for Brandon Bass?
"B-Roy is the best shooting guard I have played against"
-Ron Artest
no one wants steve blake
certainly not a title-contending team. blake’s only value is his expiring contract which isn’t terribly large.
They could use Blake.
I’m not much of a Blake fan at all, but I could see Orlando, Miami, Charlotte, OKC, or NY being interested. He’s fine as a backup and there are a bunch of teams that lack steady depth at the 1.
by Nick Van Excellent on Dec 6, 2009 1:13 AM PST up reply actions
I think the odds of trading Miller go way up.
I love him. He’s been one of my favorite players for a while now, but his signing was about all about pushing the teams window up in the short term. With Oden out, the two years guaranteed on Miller’s contract are a bit of a waste.
Miller’s not going to help Przybilla much. He’s not going to be throwing lobs to Travis or Batum any time soon. He’s certainly not doing Roy any favors. It’s going to be even harder for us to run with less rebounding and defense. If you thought he was a bad fit for this roster before…
by Nick Van Excellent on Dec 6, 2009 1:07 AM PST reply actions
it hurts me to say this
at this sad sad moment especially after the statements i’ve been making the past 2 days about how Miller should not be traded and how it was important to the team to keep him…
it appears Miller is of no use to us anymore.
The biggest reason to keep him was his willingness to feed Greg. Now that this option has been eliminated, we need to turn this season into a productive one. Instead of keeping our pieces and hoping we make the playoffs, lets turn this season into a developing one.
Trade Miller.
Start Bayless.
I mean it, start Bayless and let him go wild.. play more of Cunningham, and when Pendergrafh returns, give him some playing time too.
I was typing when you guys said trade Miller
See my post Lowering Expectations, but yeah I agree trade Miller. Oh and I meant cheer for Blake to shoot 40% on threes.
by desperationshot on Dec 6, 2009 1:45 AM PST up reply actions
i'd rather Blake shoot no threes at all
give those shots to Rudy
Lowering expectations
Before the season I thought we’d win 57 games. At this point of the season I thought we would have 5 losses, we already have 8. Maybe it’s losing Outlaw, and especially Batum. Maybe it’s the fact that Miller has been a huge disappointment. Maybe it’s that the team has had a hard time adjusting to Martell, Miller, and Oden. Whatever it’s been up to this point we’ve already lost 3 more games than I thought we would.
Now Oden’s injury is like a bomb blowing up my 57 win prediction. I’m lowering my expectations. Now I think we’ll win 30 more games this season. That’ll put us at 43 and 39. On the bright side, I feel better having low expectations. Now if we win more than 43 I’ll be happy. I don’t know if 43 will be good enough to make the playoffs. LA, Den, SA, Dall, Utah, and Phoenix will probably finish higher than us, so we’ll be battling it out with the rest of the west for the 7 or 8 spot.
I wouldn’t be upset with us trading a number of players. Don’t trade Oden, Roy, Aldridge, or Batum. I wouldn’t be upset trading anyone else as long as we get good value. The thing is how much would a trade really help us. I’m just thinking as I’m typing here, but maybe we could make a trade to clear up our point guard situation. I don’t mean so much for this year, as for the future. I don’t think Blake, or Miller are the long term answer, and Bayless isn’t a point guard. Another thing about lowering expectations, is that we don’t have to keep Miller. He was only a 2 year signing anyway. Someone to get us to the next level up from last year. Well now that isn’t happening. We’ll be lucky to get a level below last year (Make playoffs, but have no home court, and have to play top seed in first round) So yeah get rid of Miller. I don’t like his grumpy old man routine anyway. He probably has more trade value than Blake, and Bayless, and he’s not that much better anyway. For this team with lower expectations Blake will be just fine. Actually the other guy I might trade is (and I hate to say this) aaahhh Rudy. It hurts, because I like his game, he’s so fun to watch when he gets hot. The thing is, he’s never going to get the job behind Brandon, and Martell and Bayless probably could handle the back up shooting guard minutes. if we could get a good future PG and/ or a good SF I would give up Miller and Rudy, and maybe even Martell or Bayless or Blake.
But at this point that’s all fantasy, because it’s very hard to make an in season trade, and other teams usually don’t want to give up good future PG and good SF. So we’ll probably play out the rest of the season with what we’ve got. Us fans will just have to get behind Roy (to have an almost MVP season from here on out) and LA (make his mid range shots, keep up the solid D) and Blake (get back to shooting 40%) and Martell (bring energy and get more consistent, and shoot the lights out) and Rudy (give us some of that Spanish magic) and Miller (stay out of the way, you’re not in the long term plans) and Bayless (get to the rim) and Cunningham (make those mid range shots, play wild and tough) and Pryzbilla (D fense, and rebounding) and Howard (play like you did against Miami, pass on your wisdom to LA and Cunningham)
Go Blazers! 43 wins!
I like polls, as long as they're good ones...
AFTER THIS INJURY, HOW DO YOU ASSESS THE BLAZERS’ CHANCES?
A. Playing for a World Championship, baby!
B. WCF appearance, but no cigar…
C. A Second Round exit…
D. One and done in the playoffs…
E. Lottery bound…
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recommended FanShots
Recent FanShots
In Association With
Ball Don't Lie - NBA - Yahoo! Sport
- Days of NBA Lives: Wherein Roy Hibbert tap-dances to Maine
- Grizzlies Valentine’s Day cards are the key to love
- Kevin Love would like the NBA to take the MLB’s approach on All-Star games
- Kobe Bryant fires a few hilarious salvos at Jeremy Lin
- Brandon Jennings states the obvious regarding his 2014 free agency, everyone goes nuts
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
