Wins +/- vs last year (in reality, we're three back)

by blazer91 on Dec 28, 2009 1:37 PM PST

I started this a few weeks back and just wanted to update. Where are we vs. last year?

Well, when last I posted, we were two wins behind last year's pace. Witha couple "favorable" games upcoming to get back on pace. Now? Three behind. Even though we actually had the exact same record at this point in the season last year, our schedule was much tougher to this point. Versus the same teams, we are actually three games off the pace.

So far, We "ADDED" wins (vs. last year) @ New Orleans, @ Charlotte, @ Dallas, @ OKC, @ San Antonio and vs. LA Clippers.
We "DROPPED" wins (vs. last year) @ Orlando, Miami, @ New York, Denver, Memphis, Atlanta, @Milwaukee, @ LA Clippers, and Memphis (again).

Again, the methodology is to look at the same games on the schedule between the two seasons, taking into account schedule changes (i.e., Drop last year's SECOND home games with Phoenix (A WIN) and New Orleans (A LOSS), and replace them with SECOND home games with Houston (A WIN 12/5) and Golden State (4/14). Drop last year's SECOND road games with the Lakers (A LOSS) and San Antonio (A WIN), and replace them with SECOND road games with Dallas (1/30) and Sacramento (4/3).)

So, at this point in the season, we are one game better on the road, but four games worse (again, versus the same teams as last year) at home.

We could potentially gain a game by virtue of replacing the New Orleans loss from last year's home schedule with a game vs. Golden State this year.

Maybe only I care about this stat, but if people are interested (comparing apples to apples on games from last year), I am happy to keep it going weekly, much like I did with the "Taking Care of Business" series last year.

Thoughts?

Ideas?

Beefs with the admittedly oversimplified methodology?

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We had two home games against N.O. last year

One was a win, the other a loss. Why did you decide to drop the loss?

Same with two games in S.A. last year. Why did you decide to drop the win? In fact, we only play one this year at S.A., and we won it, so you should just match it against the win from last year, and drop the loss. I guess.

My projection says 52.7 and you have us on pace for 52. So we have two highly suspect methods arriving at similar conclusions. Either we are both geniuses, or both idiots.

#5 #10 #52 #88

by jscot on Dec 28, 2009 1:49 PM PST reply actions

I took the first game of the year

If there was a second game last year that wasn’t repeated this year (home or away), I dropped it.

Again, I said I kept it simple.

And last year we were both pretty close with our methodologies. In fact, mine finished dead on projecting from about January 10, I think.

So, we are apparently both simple men who nonetheless get good results with simple methods.

Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!

And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!

by blazer91 on Dec 28, 2009 1:58 PM PST up reply actions

EDITED post to reflect that SECOND games were dropped/added

Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!

And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!

by blazer91 on Dec 28, 2009 1:59 PM PST up reply actions

The Vegas over/under on wins this year is 51.

Before the season I figured that was easy money for the over. After Oden was hurt, I was sure the under would win. Now I’m not sure at all.

These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others. -Groucho Marx

by RDreamer on Dec 28, 2009 2:22 PM PST reply actions

I would be shocked if we got to 52 wins....

This winning streak is a flippin’ Christmas miracle….

by jenstcy on Dec 28, 2009 2:56 PM PST reply actions

Agreed as to the "Miracle," but...

But it also knocks difficult games off of our schedule, leaving us with easier games to come in the near future. Remember, last year’s record was not built off of winning tough road games, but rather winning the games we were “supposed” to win. This team can still do that as currently constructed.

In fact, it could be argued that the team has already shown a greater propensity to win tough road games than last year. It is the home games that have bit us this year, and if we get that cleaned up (especially this next two that were losses last year), we should be in good shape.

Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!

And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!

by blazer91 on Dec 28, 2009 3:09 PM PST up reply actions

We were 20-13 last year as we are now.

we went on a decent 10-4 run in the next 14 games.

Romance me with that Roy rainbow shot which took flight from way beyond the arc and sailed so high that before it came back down to earth sealing the victory, it kissed the rafters and said "You're mine baby."

by Blazer1342 on Dec 29, 2009 5:47 AM PST reply actions

We were 22-11 vs. these same opponents at this point

Yes we were 20-13 at the 33rd game last year, but had played tougher opponents.

Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!

And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!

by blazer91 on Dec 29, 2009 11:29 AM PST up reply actions

I see – I knew you’d have the answer.

I don’t have the numbers with me but in the next 14 games last year, our opponents average win% was around .485, or in that neighborhood.

by Blazer1342 on Dec 30, 2009 7:20 AM PST up reply actions

i cant beleive you reminded me of that clippers loss last year

i have never been so pissed off after a loss, and it wasnt even that big of a game at the time, but it turned out to be the difference between 4th and 2nd place in the west (along with a lot of other games). everything you would never expect happened (and some you did expect but just didn’t want to happen ie randolph tearing us up). I still can’t believe steve missed 4 free throws in a row and he only needed one. I still get nervous every time hes at the line, but hes only shooting 73% this year so I guess I should be nervous.

Rip City. can't be stopped. twenty-ten.

by BlazinTrails on Dec 29, 2009 6:34 PM PST reply actions