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Daily Update and Projections -- Games of 12/22 -- Anti-Tank Edition

Tank?  Did someone say tank?

Sorry, we've got games to win.  In case no one noticed, we can still outplay good teams even with the guys we have, and Rudy is coming back, and Nic, and hopefully Travis.  Grab a win here and a win there, keep in the hunt, this is no time to be quitting on this team.

Spare us the "could-have-beens", too.  We are where we are.  This is the team we have, and I'm proud of them for gutting out wins against Houston when Greg went down, and last night with the loss of Joel.  THIS TEAM, the guys who will take the floor tonight, are your Portland Trailblazers.  If you want to quit on them, go support the L@kers or something.  The rest of us will hang in there with them.

Do Joel or Greg or Nic or Travis or Rudy want to hear about tanking?  What will encourage your fallen teammates more, fighting hard and winning as many as you can, or folding?

In case no one noticed, Brandon Roy is still a pretty good ballplayer, LMA can still make the occasional good play, and there's a few other guys around who occasionally manage to get a rebound or make a shot. 

So we may not make the playoffs.  That's certainly possible.  But I for one will never call for my team to tank.  I want guys who want to win and will do all they can to make it happen.  That's Joel's style, and I hope the rest follow his example. 

Explanation of categories and projection methods in my latest Sched Ahead weekly update.

Star-divide

Yesterday:

  1. Well, we all know what happened in Dallas.  Really nice win for the guys who could still walk.  It's a big one for the future because it removes just about the last alleged "hex" over this team.  We won't fear going to Dallas any more, we took them on when barely standing and still won, and we didn't even need an all-world game from Brandon to do it.  We won it with hard defense and some breaks.  The projections are a total joke, since the team playing the last 50 games for us won't even remotely resemble the team playing the first 30, but this win did make our projection look better, FWIW, moving us ahead of Utah.  The loss knocked Dallas from 2nd to 4th in the projections.
  2. The L@kers dodged a bullet and beat the "Blunder" in a close one.  That gives OKC a losing record, triggering recategorizations of their games.  Don't count them out of the playoff hunt yet, though.  Kobe had 40, Durant 30 but fouled out, and Westbrook missed a late 3 that would have tied it.
  3. Houston won a Cat 1 Cream Puff at home against the Clips, led by Carl "Who Needs Teeth?" Landry with 27.  T-Mac scored 10 in 8 minutes -- that will catch some attention.

Projections:

  1. L.A.  64.2 wins.   
  2. Denver.  57.6 wins.
  3. Phoenix.  57.2 wins. 
  4. Dallas.  56.5 wins.
  5. Houston.  52.3 wins.
  6. Portland.  50.9 wins.
  7. Utah.  50.3 wins.
  8. S.A.  44.1 wins.
  9. OKC.  42.6 wins.
  10. N.O.  40.2 wins.

 Today's Games:

  1. Portland at San Antonio.  Cat 4 Rocky Road for us, Cat 2 Jawbreaker for them.  The Spurs have Bonner out (hand).  That's what happens with old teams -- injuries.
  2. Houston at Orlando.  Cat 4 back to back for the Rockets.  Budinger out for Houston for a couple weeks, McGrady playing limited minutes.  Nelson is back for Orlando, if not really up to speed yet.
  3. Utah at Miami.  Cat 4 for the Jazz, who have lost three of their last five.  Korver still having trouble, is day to day.  Deron Williams is also day to day with a thumb injury.  Probably all the dodgeball those two guys played over the summer.
  4. G.S. at N.O.  Cat 1 Cream Puff for the Hornets, pretty much a must-win for them at this stage of their season.  Back to back for the Warriors.  Turiaf and Biedrins have both returned to practice, but didn't play in last night's loss at Memphis.
  5. Atlanta at Denver.  Cat 2 for the Nugs.  Atlanta is on a back to back, having blown out Minnesota the night before.  Joe Smith is out.  Billups may not play for Denver.
  6. "Blunder" at Phoenix.  Cat 1 Cream Puff for the Suns, Cat 4 for OKC. 

An interesting opportunity for us.  Quite a few of our rivals have tough games.  If we can somehow eke out another win on this trip, it should really strengthen our position.

Comment 20 comments  |  5 recs  | 

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Schedules and projections aside (I am not so sure they are good for anything at this point anyway) ....

…..I have to give you a hearty +92 for the anti-tanking part. They idea of tanking to get a %25 shot at the number one pick is just abhorrent to me . I am sorry folks, but winning is a habit. You don’t just throw it away at the drop of a hat. Brandon is right …what he and the rest of the team learn from this season will be invaluable. Go out ….fight as hard as you can …and let the chips fall where they may. Go Blazers!!

" Welcome to the Bedge....where good, is never good enough"…Rudiculous

by 92wastheyear on Dec 23, 2009 8:04 AM PST reply actions  

It's ludicrous, anyway

Even if we lost every game the rest of the way, we probably wouldn’t have the worst record. Both NJ and Minnesota are a serious threat to lose more then 64 games.

#52

by jscot on Dec 23, 2009 8:34 AM PST up reply actions  

Rec'd for this:
THIS TEAM, the guys who will take the floor tonight, are your Portland Trailblazers. If you want to quit on them, go support the L@kers or something. The rest of us will hang in there with them.

As long as we have Roy and Aldridge playing, I’m not going to give up.

πεντήκοντα δύο

Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?

by T Darkstar on Dec 23, 2009 8:49 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

Ya know what?

Even if we do lose them …I am staying. I have before

" Welcome to the Bedge....where good, is never good enough"…Rudiculous

by 92wastheyear on Dec 23, 2009 10:07 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Maybe I'm generous with my recs.

But I have a lot to give.

Rec’d.

πεντήκοντα δύο

Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?

by T Darkstar on Dec 23, 2009 3:40 PM PST up reply actions  

50 wins might be a bit too optimistic, no?

If the Blazers can still do that, someone should put a statue of them in Pioneer Square. That would be something else.

I’d be really proud of this team and consider it a moral victory if they can scrape out .500 this year.

Keep your expectations low and you won't be disappointed.

by Benjamanic on Dec 23, 2009 9:18 AM PST reply actions  

Optimism?

The spreadsheet knows no optimism. The spreadsheet knows wins and losses, and projects accordingly.

The spreadsheet also knows nothing about injuries….

If you want to know what I think will happen, I’ll guess that if Brandon is ok we finish somewhere between 40-45 wins for the year, with the possibility of 47-48 if Rudy and Nic come back really strong for us. If Brandon is out for a while, I don’t have a clue. Jerryd could go crazy. Rudy could come back and step up big time. Or we could lose almost every game while he’s out.

#52

by jscot on Dec 23, 2009 9:25 AM PST up reply actions  

They don't erect statues to congratulate 50-win teams

even under these circumstances.

That being said, I’ll be pulling for them and I’ll give them a hearty handshake after the season, no matter how many wins they wind up with. – Elgin

Travis Outlaw, the Funnel Cake of the Blazers

by 22baylor on Dec 23, 2009 12:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Tank? no.

Look to play Bayless and the rooks more than otherwise? Yes. Look to trade people we won’t need beyond this year (possibly including Andre, Steve, Howard and Outlaw)? Yes.

#52

by jksnake99 on Dec 23, 2009 9:33 AM PST reply actions  

I'd agree

The difficulty is that we’re dealing from a position of weakness, so it is going to be hard to get full value in a trade. If you’re the other guy, you are going to drive a hard bargain, right?

#52

by jscot on Dec 23, 2009 9:44 AM PST up reply actions  

Especially since none of those guys

Has a huge salary number worth dumping.

"Good evening Blazer fans, wherever you may be!"-Bill Schonely

by skywaker9 on Dec 23, 2009 10:30 AM PST up reply actions  

Agreed

This is our Research and Development year. – Elgin

Travis Outlaw, the Funnel Cake of the Blazers

by 22baylor on Dec 23, 2009 12:24 PM PST up reply actions  

Injuries happen.

Heart is something we can show in spite of them. Something we can build on no matter what our record ends up being. I feel that this season has been an overwhelming success up to this point—there is no room or need for quitting.

In the big picture tanking would be the wrong message to send to the members of the Blazer’s family fighting even larger battles: namely, Paul Allen, Maurice Lucas, and Brian Grant. The last thing they want to see is our team rolling over and giving up. These men can’t quit fighting, and especially this year, I don’t think we should either. To me this season should be dedicated to the inner spiritual battles that these great men (along with all of the injured players) are fighting.

#52

by KINGofMACct on Dec 23, 2009 10:22 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

Seriously

And if this team can fight hard when they are shorthanded, they will hopefully transfer that to fighting hard when they have a full roster.

"Good evening Blazer fans, wherever you may be!"-Bill Schonely

by skywaker9 on Dec 23, 2009 10:31 AM PST up reply actions  

We still have a lot of reason for optimism no matter what!

I don’t think quitting is a word in any of these men’s vocabularies. It is part of what I respect so much about them.

#52

by KINGofMACct on Dec 23, 2009 10:36 AM PST up reply actions  

I am produer to be a Blazer fan

Than I was a month ago. You might not win every game but as long as you go down fighting, I’m okay with that.

"Good evening Blazer fans, wherever you may be!"-Bill Schonely

by skywaker9 on Dec 23, 2009 10:39 AM PST up reply actions  

This team has given some very good answers

to some very tough questions that have been asked of them this year. Dare I say we are even seeing some real sighs of maturity?

#52

by KINGofMACct on Dec 23, 2009 11:05 AM PST up reply actions  

Winning. You get used to it.

I expect Portland to beat .500 and worse teams if they can suit up five guys.

And they will beat good teams who don’t bring their “A” game some nights too.

by baduk on Dec 23, 2009 11:31 AM PST reply actions  

Nice Jscott

Thje tank people really piss me off,they are insulting the team and the players,please take your defeatist drivel elsewhere and take this as an insult.

by southern oregon on Dec 23, 2009 4:09 PM PST reply actions  

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