Helping the Offense a Little
by Dave on Dec 22, 2009 12:28 AM PST
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PrintOne of the topics of the day yesterday, starting on the radio and continuing on Dwight Jaynes' excellent blog (and in Manga's fanpost regarding same) was the viability of the Blazers' current offense. Dwight argues that Portland is too jumper-dependent, an assessment with which I wholeheartedly agree. I'm hard-pressed to think of brilliant solutions right now, though, with half of our roster out including our only true low-post threat. We can say the team should run more but it's difficult with your best finishers also being important rebounders. Plus there's that whole defense thing. We can say people should drive more in the halfcourt but only Roy and Bayless have the ball-handling chops to attempt it on a regular basis and the defense can see that coming from a mile away. Both areas are open to improvement but the result is only going to be incremental until this roster is together like it was designed to be and the kinks are worked out.
The truth is, the over-reliance on deep jumpers is only the tip of the iceberg on which the offense is grounded right now. There's also a desperate need for a consistent third scorer. There's too much one-on-one attacking going on, allowing the defense to set and rebound easily. We need an approach that moves the defense, where more than one person touches the ball, and that creates opportunities for someone besides the two main guys besides the obvious three-point heaves.
Part of the reason we've been having trouble finding offensive rhythm and success is that the guys who have taken that third scorer role don't change the paradigm. Andre Miller is a natural candidate and could do well, but when he's at this best he's scoring with the ball in his hands. People are excited about Jerryd Bayless but he's not likely to be consistent enough to fill the bill for the entire season and he, too, tends to prosper when he controls his own destiny. As we've heard before, both overlap Brandon Roy's skill set and preferences, which makes synergy that much harder.
Martell Webster, on the other hand, remains a largely untapped resource. Mind you' I'm not talking about the Martell who stands near the sideline and heaves threes. We've seen as much from that Martell as we're going to get. I'm talking the Martell who has the potential to become a scoring machine from 10 feet out instead of just 22 feet and beyond. The nights when Webster really explodes he's not confining himself to three-point land. He's all over the floor. But we don't see that Martell often because Webster himself can't make that happen. He needs somebody to set him up. Many times that's considered a liability in this league. But it suits our purposes exactly.
Back in the day, when Brandon and LaMarcus were just twinkles in Kevin Pritchard's eyes, the Blazers used to run plays for Martell every once in a while. Granted even back then they didn't do it consistently. I'd guess there were a couple reasons for that. First, there was a fair bit of territorial jealousy surrounding offensive possessions at that time. Second, the old Martell didn't have a well-rounded game and was frequently on the sharp end of coaching barbs...or at least caused some headaches on his own bench. They tried to raise him the right way instead of the easy way, to value effort instead of just scoring. But both of those issues have since gone by the wayside (or mostly anyway).
When the Blazers did run plays for Martell he tended to score in droves. And the play that got him off more than any other was a curl screen on the right hand side. Somebody would set a pick 12-15 feet from the basket in a diagonal line from the rim. Webster would cut through the lane from the weak side, curl around from beneath the screen, a passer at the top of the lane would hit him, and BAM! Two points on the quick jumper again and again and again.
That play seems to have disappeared from the Portland lexicon. Given the circumstances, short-handed and in a halfcourt-laden offense, I'd like to see it make a comeback. It accomplishes pretty much all of our goals. The biggest one is that Martell scores off of it and points are at a premium right now. It moves the defense and it involves three people at minimum in the play. You also have other options in the set, including the pick-setter cutting towards the rim for a pass from the top, the passer diving down the lane for a give-and-go with Martell, and Martell passing out to another shooter on the strong side if the defense tries to help from there. It's not exactly a layup but honestly that 12-15 foot jumper might as well be one for Martell when he knows he has the green light. Best of all this takes no extra personnel, no fundamental shift in the offense, and doesn't shoehorn anyone into a role with which they're not comfortable. One guy sets the pick, Martell cuts and uses it, one guy enters the pass and maybe cuts, one guy hangs on the strong-side perimeter to receive a pass for the shot if help comes, and the last guy stays on the weak side to offensive rebound or get back on defense depending on what the top-of-the-key passer does. It's not a stretch to fill those roles with a Przybilla, Aldridge, Roy, Miller, or even Blake, Bayless, Howard, and Cunningham.
I don't expect a major revolution in the offense anytime soon, but I would like to see wrinkles like this thrown in. I mean, what else are you going to do with the shots you don't cede to Aldridge, Roy, and the people they outlet to? Like it or not we do need a third scorer established and Webster is not only a prime candidate for the job, involving him probably disrupts everyone else the least.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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Thank you for a solution
however, this is really the same play that is run for brandon, rudy, travis if i am not mistaken. Bayless ought to get looks in the same vein so we can run this play for any three player at one time. The offense has the plays, it is a question of can the players execute and can the coach give the players the chance to fail a few times.
Not quite the same
None of those guys operate down that far on a regular basis. They use high picks more than curls. None of them are catch-and-shoot guys either.
—Dave
I like that play, too.
rec’d. I also like Martell finishing strong at the rim off cuts. He’s not a strong dribbler, but with one dribble or none he is pretty deadly. Maybe I haven’t been watching enough games, but there’s one play I’d like to see come back. Lamarcus is posting up. Martell charges in baseline, picks up the hand-off and finishes with a dunk, a reverse lay-up, or sometimes a reverse dunk. Dude is a serious athlete and we should take advantage of that. Also, it’s a good way to get his mojo working for that jumper, and if the defense sees it he can always bail to the weakside.
Beautiful well thought out and balanced analysis, Dave
Martell is ready to do more this year. We really need more player and ball movement offense. Maybe Dante could also almost do this play from the 15 ft range. Hopefully, something like this will develop as the team stops reeling from all the changes. (I fear, however, that with Pendergraph and Mills joining the lineup, the temptation will be to try to focus on what they bring.)
I think the Blazers´ biggest problem in offense is that they have made it so simple and effective than they don´t play team basketball.
Pryz: Pryz is almost totally ignored by his teammates in offense, and that starts with Roy and Blake. Even when he cuts to the rim. That allows his man to play help defense. Big man help defense must be a defensive minded coach best dream. He doesn´t play a low post game at all, never get the ball there, never give a pass from there. This shows to be effective for the regular season. I think the Blazers will pay in the Playoffs. At the start of the season last year Pryz played with the second unit and he received the ball more because Rudy and Sergio looked for him. They had some turnovers but I suspect that Pryz had the best offensive start of his whole career.
Oden: that´s the other side of the Pryz´s equation. As the Roy and LA haven´t played with a Center in the low post, neither with a Center simply getting the ball in offense, they don´t know what to do when playing with one. They seem totally lost at times. Psicholocally lost too, because Oden is actually more SIMPLE AND EFFECTIVE than them.
I would agree with you if I thought Przybilla could catch a pass
Many times they hit him right in the hands and he drops it or fumbles it out of bounds. – Elgin
Travis Outlaw, the Funnel Cake of the Blazers
I have a radical idea that would help even more
Teach Brandon how to actually use the pick and roll. Right now, the pick and roll simply means a double team on Brandon, as the big defender shows hard, the man setting the pick stands there, and Brandon is pinched between the two defenders.
Step #1: Punish the big defender for “showing” too much.
Right now, the big defender comes out to stop Brandon going around the pick. The way to punish this is to clear everyone else out of the key, and use the pick and slip. Do this when LMA is playing center and Juwan and Martell are our forwards. Martell and PG are on the wings, Juwan at the elbow, where he can knock down a jumper so his defender has to respect him, and the key is clear.
Get Brandon the ball at the top of the key, and bring LMA up to set the pick. As soon as LMA’s defender starts to move out to pinch off Brandon, have LMA “slip” — break to the hoop. His defender is moving in the wrong direction, the lane is free, Brandon lobs it up, easy two. We should do this at least twice a game, even more if they won’t respect it. Right now, they show no respect to anything but stopping Brandon on the pick and roll, and he can’t even go around the pick because the big defender is popping out behind the pick to stop him.
Step #2. Run the pick and ROLL.
Once we’ve established that the big defender can’t always pop out and stop Brandon from going around the pick, we can run a normal pick and roll. This is where the big man rolls to the hoop after Brandon goes around the pick. If they switch, you have a size mismatch underneath. For this to be effective, Brandon has to be prepared to hit the man rolling to the hoop. The difficulty is recognition — what is the defense giving you. Right now, everything is focused on stopping Brandon, so punish that by hitting the man rolling to the hoop.
Step #3. Add the pick and pop.
By now, we’ve used the pick and slip to teach defenders to be honest. We’ve established the pick and roll, using shooters to spread the court so the pick and roll has been effectively a 2 on 2 game.
Right now, we run a pick and pop instead of a pick and roll. The pick and roll should be the primary option. But once we’ve established it, the pick and pop becomes much more effective. The defenders focus entirely on backing off to stop the easy buckets out of the pick and roll, and this time, LMA sets the pick, fakes to roll, they dive for the bucket, and he steps back and gets the ball for an easy 15-18 foot jump shot.
Step #4. Expand the offense.
The pick and roll/pop is really a two man game. Here’s where the Martell off the screen play comes into full effect — because that requires three men off the ball, two men to set the screen and Martell to go around it. In addition, you have the man with the ball.
But what if the man with the ball is Brandon Roy, and LMA is setting a high pick for him, and just as Brandon goes around the pick Martell is coming around a double screen?
What’s happening? Brandon’s defender is screened off, so he is headed towards the hoop, while LMA is either rolling or popping. Martell is open, unless the PG defender commits to him, while just after Martell came around the screen the PG drifted toward the corner, so that’s something else they have to try to watch. You have four options (Brandon, Martell, PG in the corner, LMA), while Joel in the double screen is a secondary option, ready to roll to the hoop if his man goes to help anywhere.
You have four guys in motion, with pressure being applied everywhere by screens and movement, the guy with the ball is in motion and headed towards the hoop, and the defense has to give up something.
Instead of having a play run for ONE GUY who the defense knows they have to stop, you are running a play for FOUR GUYS, and the fifth man is in position to punish them if his defender leaves him to help anyone. And that will happen, so Joel will score, too.
Instead of guys being left out of the offense, everyone knows — I am part of this play, and I had better be ready to score, because we’re going to take whatever the defense gives us.
#52
by jscot on Dec 22, 2009 1:16 AM PST reply actions 11 recs
I am not a high BBIQ fan.
But, that sounds simple and effective. Lets do it.
Now, how do we get the team to implement it?
hg
With a screen name like that
Maybe you could call a couple of the boys and threaten to break his kneecaps. – Elgin
Travis Outlaw, the Funnel Cake of the Blazers
rec
i have been wanting the same thing since last year. Movement off the ball, screens, backscreens, downscreens, pick and rolls, none of these exsist in the Blazers offense currently. We may see one every once in a while, but they are normally not used correctly or capitalized on. Hopefully the Blazers either wise up, or bring someone wiser in to help them out.
Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?
I have been wondering
why the Blazers seem unable/unwilling to do much with a “real” pick & roll and it’s variations…one would think, especially given our roster shortages, that using basic but effective strategies like these would be obvious. And yet…
YES
Thanks for pointing out that BRoy needs to work on his use of the pick and roll. I have been unable to understand how a guy as talented as Brandon is unable to effectively use a pick. He floats off of it instead of driving hard, doesn’t brush shoulders w/ the screener, and rarely looks for the roller.
Am I missing something? I would be pleasantly surprised to hear a reason why we continue to run the pick and roll that way.
I live in the Phoenix area and watch Nash run this with precision. Brandon could get himself and his teammates so many more easy shots by executing this play better.
A Blazer Blessing
May the alley-oop rise up to meet you. May the defender always be at your back.
May your enemies’ shots clang hard upon the rim, and your jumpers fall soft into the net.
May the refs look upon you with favor, and your enemies look up on you with fear.
And until the final buzzer sounds, may the gods hold you in the palm of their hand.
roy is not a good pick and roll player right now.
its painful to watch him just “wait” for the helping big man to come up and guard him. basically, he is looking to get the switch and attack that new guy guarding him. rather than follow through and attack that big man right off the dribble allowing him to open up things for the rolling guy.
you know, i think another problem is that the bigs dont wait to set an Actual Pick!
its like they think the intent to set one and faking a pick is better than a real pick. sheesh!
Nice tutorial, coach.
It has amazed me for some time that Brandon and LMA have not figured out how to run a basic set of pick and roll/slip/pop options. They should be incredible. Roy is sneaky fast, has a good handle, is a willing passer, makes good decisions, and can finish at the rim or make the pull-up. LMA has great hands to receive the pass, has great touch from mid-range, and comes down the key like a locomotive. Seems to me they have all the skills necessary to be right up there with Stockton/Malone.
Why don’t we do a better job of using our two most reliable offensive weapons? Somebody mentioned Miller hitting LMA for the jam on a pick-and-roll and LMA when asked about it said he “didn’t know it could work like that.” It really makes you wonder.
Andre isn’t fast but he is marvelously sneaky going to the rim. He should be able to run a quality pick and roll. Jerryd is so good getting to the rim that ever time he uses a pick the opposing team almost always sends both guys after him and he still gets around them. If the coaching staff spends next summer teaching Jerryd and Oden to run an old fashioned pick and roll, they should be unstoppable. That is the future for this team. If they need to hire somebody who is a former Jerry Sloan Assistant to come in and teach them to do it right, they should do it.
Regarding Dave’s original suggestion about Martell, I totally agree. Our offense totally underutilizes whom ever is playing the the Small Forward position. “Go stand in the corner” is not winning basketball. I remember back to the days of Bobby Gross and Jerome Kersey, the small forward was in constant motion all over the floor. Constantly cutting through the key, slipping behind everybody for the lob, curling off of multiple screens.
I’m not a big X and O guy, but I can see that motion forces the opposing team to move their feet and make decisions, it results in better opportunities. We have the athletes to run a diverse offense that combines elements of an isolation game with elements of a pick and roll game and elements of a motion offense. Why aren’t we seeing it on the floor? Come on Nate, show us you can teach them how.
by upper left corner on Dec 22, 2009 8:17 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
LMA said that Andre taught him to pick and slip.
Then I seen him do it in the next game and it made me wonder too,if it works so good and easy why not use it more.
hg
and what is the coaching staff for?
Andre should be the player coach, like Lennie Wilkens
can you imagine
Andre having to deal with the media daily as a head coach?
awwkkwward
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
If the coaching staff spends next summer teaching Jerryd and Oden to run an old fashioned pick and roll, they should be unstoppable
I agree. These guys are already friends and have trained together (allegedly) While Bayno is rehabbing Greg next summer it would be the perfect time to do a little “2-man” teaching. There should be plently of tOSU players in Columbus to use as “defenders” in these drills
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Smallest Forward
Totally agree on our poor small forward play. Since Batum went down, there has been nothing but trouble out there. Part of that is the ridiculous three-guard lineup, but yeah, there is a lot of corner-standing going on. However, I don’t think that more Martell is the answer.
Reading jscot’s post, I kept thinking, “Dante. Dante. Dante”. He has become our best pick setter and nobody had to teach him how to run the pick and pop—he was rocking that little beauty all summer. The only roadblock he’s hit is a less-than-stellar FG%, but I attribute that to only getting six minutes a game. Give him some time and those wide-open, close-in jumpers that he’s been putting up will start falling.
I was at the Phoenix game, and during shoot around, that jumper was automatic. If we’re looking for another scoring threat who can also beef up our defense, we need look no further than Dante Cunningham. Starting him at the small forward would be the best move of the season.
Cunningham is not ready, defensively
and there’s no reason fans should expect him to be at this point in his career
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Jerryd is probably the best guy to run PnR in our roster now
Miller is certainly better than Roy, but too often he failed to turn the corner to get rid of the defenders. It is disappointing to see that. Bayless is the only guy who manages to consistently turn the corner or split the double and add pressure to opponent’s defense in the paint.
I, too, would look forward to Bayless-Oden to master the old-fashioned PnR next season.
P&R
You are actually exactly right about Bayless to an extent. Bayless is our most efficient pick and roll ball handler by a fairly wide margin, In fact Bayless is in the 98th percentile in the league when single covered shooting 53% and scoring 1.23 PPP Roy is 37.4% and .89 PPP for comparison. Where Brandon clearly outshines Bayless is when the Defense commits. Bayless drops to 40.7% and .76 PPP which is in the 19th percentile. Whereas Roy is 48.4% and 1.03 PPP good for the 65th percentile.
by InvisibleNinja on Dec 23, 2009 11:40 AM PST up reply actions
yup
multiple options in a single set. Seems that way too often, Blazer sets are designed to take advantage of a particular expected defense and get a specific shot, rather than involve all the players to their strength every play.
The Blazer offense lacks that multiple option dynamic. Another big thing that an offense like this would do is really clarify roles based on how defenses react. Everyone benefits. Ball handlers get assists or open looks. Screeners get layups/dunks/rebounds; off-ball movement gets open looks or back door cut opportunities.
Needs to be the bread and butter play, rather than iso posts or iso’s at the top of the key.
by blacknoiseNW on Dec 22, 2009 8:23 AM PST up reply actions
You have four guys in motion
. I see too little of this right now. I see too much of four guys watching one play basketball.
Right now, Portland must make for a pretty easy team to scout: :(.
Portland's PG of the Future - MORE John Wall
Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.
It's a good idea
but the problem is that LaMarcus doesn’t set good picks and doesn’t like to operate on the move in the halfcourt offense like that. I’m not sure Brandon would prefer this role either. That means at least for now you’re taking the two main scorers on the team and putting them somewhere they don’t want to be. I’m thinking this might work better when Greg returns.
—Dave
I have seen this as well
That means at least for now you’re taking the two main scorers on the team and putting them somewhere they don’t want to be.
And believe it can be changed. Winning has to be the driving force and the main motivator.
#52
by KINGofMACct on Dec 22, 2009 10:01 AM PST up reply actions
the Blazers paid a lot of money to kids who have a lot of "druthers"
Brandon would “druther” not play alongside any starting PG than Blake
LMA would “druther” not have to stick his nose in there for rebounds, etc
and their head coach seemingly treats them with a degree of entitlement, rather than challenge them to grow and expand their offensive repertoire
if the shoe fits…
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
It is ultimately got to be Nate's responsibility to bring them into line
but I also see that these supposedly, “great guys,” are human too.
#52
I don't believe that
LMA likes a lob to the hoop that he can catch and put down. We’ve seen it repeatedly.
And I don’t know why Brandon doesn’t like making that lob when they bring the double team.
I know what LMA doesn’t like — he doesn’t like operating on the move with a defender between him and the basket. I’m not talking about that, I’m talking about pulling the other defenders out away from the basket, so it’s a two man game, and then have LaMarcus slip the pick.
Look, if we aren’t going to have him slip the pick, he should never come set it. Why bother? It just gives them an opportunity to double-team Brandon.
Same with Joel. This is very basic basketball, I learned this when I was 12 years old. In the pick and roll, the defenders are going to give you something. They have to, there is no way to cover everything. If you aren’t going to take what they give you, why bother with it?
And LMA doesn’t set good picks? In 3 1/2 years as a professional basketball player he’s never learned to set a pick? This is not rocket science.
If we have two guys on max contracts who can’t execute a pick and roll effectively together 3-4 times a game, we either need to terminate some coaches or terminate the GM who gave them the contracts. This is so basic, Dave. We’re not talking about running the triangle or something, we’re talking about the blooming pick and roll, here. Did these guys not see what LBJ and Varejao did to them with it? Do they think that Varejao is better rolling to the hoop than LaMarcus can be?
Do I sound a little frustrated? Not with you, you are probably right about them not being comfortable with it. But maybe they could at least try a few times and see how brilliantly it works?
#52
Pretty much has to be
I can guarantee LMA is smart enough to learn how to set a pick, and Brandon is smart enough to learn how to use one.
#52
It's more than a coaching issue,
it’s an ego issue. Think about it: who really cares what Brandon Roy and Lamarcus Aldridge like. They are both talented enough to do whatever needs to be done. They need to drop their egos and do what will help this team win in the long run. For a single game, Roy may think the best thing is for him to have the ball and score points. But that won’t work over the course of a game, or when Kobe Bryant is guarding him.
Nate needs to stress this with them, pull them in his office and ask them whether they want to win championships. And you put it as bluntly as that. Because playing the way they do now, and the way they did last year, and the way they were before Greg got hurt, won’t get it done.
I agree
The responsibility for our, “glaring weaknesses,” on offense falls on both players and coaches. That is partly why it is so difficult to be an NBA coach—when the axe falls…. .
#52
by KINGofMACct on Dec 22, 2009 11:24 AM PST up reply actions
you're so right about this
If we have two guys on max contracts who can’t execute a pick and roll effectively together 3-4 times a game, we either need to terminate some coaches or terminate the GM who gave them the contracts. This is so basic, Dave. We’re not talking about running the triangle or something, we’re talking about the blooming pick and roll, here.
I’ve been banging my head trying to figure out why is it so hard for these 2 to learn PnR.
underrated issue:
but the problem is that LaMarcus doesn’t set good picks
im not sure why… but the seems like on this level someone would try to correct this. somewhere along the lines in the history of the nba someone figured out that they could fake the intent to set a pick and not set the pick, thus faking their man out as they rolled to the hoop was a good idea to do ONCE IN AWHILE. But then, its not a “good fake out” when you do it every… single… time.
so frustrating.
actually Aldridge has been doing that
he has been doing the fake screen then slip thing. In fact that’s more effective than his “real” screen because it doesn’t screen away anybody and would just bring another defender to Brandon. So occasionally he’d do pick and slip to get himself open.
well what im saying is that... he fakes screenz it all the time.
which means it isn’t a fake anymore and never allows roy to get a pick.e ver.
pick and slip
I’ve seen Roy and LMA execute it once this year, and I was amazed at the sight. I’m still hoping that Andre will “rub off” on Brandon and we’ll see more of this “basketball 201” strategy going forward
I don’t think stuff like this is the full responsibility of the coaches to teach, the young players need to learn how to do it by observation/recognition of in-game conditions
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I don't agree about responsibility
If I’m the coach, I’m going through game film and putting together a whole bunch of film of players A and B doing this, over and over again, all over the league, and how well it works, and then I’m showing these two guys what they are doing. Show about 50 clips of guys who are a lot less talented getting easy buckets, and then show Brandon fighting off a double team because we aren’t doing it.
Why to the players need to learn this by observation, instead of by a coach saying, “Hey, look at this!”
#52
I think it's more of a mindset issue from the players
i.e., they’re not really reacting on the fly very well to what the defense is giving them. It seems like Aldridge makes the decision whether he’s going to slip the pick, roll off it, or pop out afterwards before he even gets set on the pick, and then doesn’t deviate from this depending on what the defense gives him. Same with Roy.
So if they guess right on what the defense gives them, it works out great, but the good defenses seem to sniff out what they’ve decided on running and shut that down, at the expense of giving up an alternate (i.e. by playing for the slip they’ll leave the pop open). Brandon and LA don’t seem to really be adjusting to this, though, and follow through with their original plan, which the defense now sees coming, or else react sufficiently slowly to the changing circumstances and can’t take advantage of what the defense is giving them.
Like you’ve illustrated above, it’s the many possible offensive options that arise from the original pick that allow the P&R to be so effective, and it feels like we’re essentially abandoning one or more of those options before we have to, making it easier to defend. As to responsibility, I’m inclined to say on the coaches for not running them through the reps constantly and ingraining it into them, but I really can’t say for sure.
#52
I think if the coaches considered it important
we’d see the right decisions at least occasionally.
#52
Yeah, the fact that they're allowed to continually
do this is on the coaches. I think LA has slipped more picks this year than ones he’s actually bothered to set.
#52
There are too many variables
We’ve read these discussions before, but mostly re: how to defend the PnR
The coaches can run the players through drills and watch film but until the kids are out there at game speed against opposing defenders who are acting unpredictabley (ie, not giving them the same “look” every time) it’s difficult to simulate the kind of 2-man synergy that it takes to run a good PnR. Think about this…how important is “eye contact” in the game of basketball? Nobody “calls” a back door play from the bench, it’s up to the 2 players on the floor to be on the same page so the ball ariives at the right spot when the cutting player is open near the basket. It’s the same with the PnR, give-and-go, etc. The players have to have the “will” and BBIQ to “read” the defense and come to the same conclusion almost simultaneously and then execute the play in a matter of a heartbeat.
Good luck coaching that. You can run sets against “air” all you want, but not everyone has court vision like Stockton or a pair of hands like Malone. Like Dave said, “whatever Nate had planned” this fall has been tossed in the round file due to the injuries and the team is back to doing what know best…relying on their indivdual talents to win games
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Does that mean
you’ll vote for me for ruler of the world?
#52
Super rec
Nice thoughts on oden and pryz
in regards to martell… It would seem that he is already a third option if he just made his WIDE OPEN 3s… A combination of hesitation and messy mechanics in his jump (his legs kick every which way when shooting) is causing the majority of his misses
by JMLakaShotCaller on Dec 22, 2009 1:21 AM PST via mobile reply actions
Regardless of that
If the three is all he has then it is still live and die by the three. Ask New York, Orlando, Memphis or the Trailblazers about that.
hg
when he takes a shot that isn't either an open 3 or a dunk, I cringe. Take a look at
nba.com/hotspots.
#52
I remember him being able to hit the jumper off of the curl
He does not hit mid-range shots well when he pump fakes, gets open, and then shoots.
During Martell’s decent 3rd season, when we’d run enough plays for him, he’d more often than not produce… more efficiently than Outlaw. BUT, it was very sporadic when we went to it.
If Martell is catching and shooting, I like it, if Martell is catching and then moving and then shooting or making a decision on the pass, I dunno… if he passes it, I like it more, but shooting on the move is a no-no with Marty.
Mortimer
#52
I would compare it to Rudy
Catching and shoot off the curl: Good
Get the ball in mid-range and shoot on the move, or after trying to create: Bad.
M—
#52
I wouldn't
I think Rudy is much better at creating, he just hasn’t been given the green light by the coaching staff.
Rudy has a turnaround jumper in the lane
that has been fairly effective
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
That is true
because the mid-range jump shots he gets right now are primarily off his own dribble…one of the ways stats can mislead.
—Dave
no brainer
I would agree that martell is the logical choice,. I have to admit that. I get frustrated wtith his game because until this year he really had no game, he was drafted out of high school on potential. Now he’s fundamentally sound and can really play. I wonder is it mental (didnt he see a shrink?). When he is drivng,rebounding and dunking it can only help to lossen up the perimeter defense, god forbid he demand a double team!. There isnt any reason why martell should’nt be a double double guy and it pisses me off at times
if it can be conceived it can be achieved
by lyfefindsaway on Dec 22, 2009 3:52 AM PST via mobile reply actions
# 1 problem = points in the paint.
If you are not bigger than the opposition, then you have to out run them, out think them, and beat them to the spot.
Option one, a few more fast break points (early offense). Option two, some actual pick and rolls. Option three, picks away from the ball and back door cuts. Option four, better passing i.e. don’t make up your mind to shoot before the play even starts. I really do not think it is all that complicated. We just need to focus more on getting points in the paint. I see long stretches where the only points in the paint opportunities are off of one on one drives or offensive rebounds. A few more paint points here and there could really make a difference for our outside shooters as well.
#52
pick and roll is too easily defended on this team, right now
and Blazer guards have been getting a little better at it. However, when the Blazers run the pick and roll, the defense over plays the help in the paint – so it isn’t that open, that often. The pick and roll – by itself – is completely dependent on either major mismatches or the outside threat to open up the roll.
Right now, the Blazer 3-point threat isn’t the threat it was last season – and even if it were – the mid-range catch and shoot (Rudy/Webster/Cunningham) are reliable shots that could really help.
by blacknoiseNW on Dec 22, 2009 8:28 AM PST up reply actions
Underlying problem = a set defense
waiting for the P&R and close to the basket shot attempts
…the defense over plays the help in the paint….
I am not sure hitting a three here and there is going to keep the defense from getting set when we move at such a slow pace and don’t disguise what we are doing?
My contention is that we need to initiate more early offense, get the defense off balance and keep them moving using a variety of quick tempo options. And by quick tempo, I am not just talking about fast breaks, I am talking about rapid progression from option to option in the half court instead of moving so methodically and predictably.
#52
Note: there is a 24 second clock in the NBA.
Moving at such a slow and cautious pace means we automatically limit our options (i.e. we are playing defense of a sort on ourselves). A fast paced team may get let say ten options completed in the time allotted, while we may only get three. It is simply more to choose from and more overall team involvement as long as you avoid taking too many quick shots and turning the ball over.
#52
quicker execution is also harder to defend
by blacknoiseNW on Dec 22, 2009 9:43 AM PST up reply actions
Thus the term, "stagnation," is often used when a team goes in the dumpster offensively.
Defenses have too good of scouting reports and are too talented not to be kept guessing. Also, they must be worked hard in order to find the weak links on any given night.
#52
this is totally right track
The trick is to keep Martell moving.
yes keep moving
- to almost any town with an NBA team….
We need a motion offense
Personally, I don’t think the answer is adding more set plays to the arsenal. The teams who make the most of their talent tend to use a motion offense where guys are constantly moving according to a loose set of rules, rather than running set plays. They cut and move until something opens up. That’s what Houston does.
The problem, of course, is that switching to a motion offense takes a real committment. You can’t do it overnight. I would love to see the Blazers hire someone (if they don’t already have some one), who knows how to teach a motion offense and slowly work on implementing it. It might take a while, but in the end, the payoff could be huge. The talent on this team would be much better utilized.
www.ripcitydispatch.com
by Blazer Guy on Dec 22, 2009 6:47 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
You may be right on.
We have been playing almost every other night. We have had to change line-ups several times to impliment a line-up because of injuries, so our offense includes the players coming off the bench which are somewhat new and doesn’t have the feel of all the players. Therefore to be practical we went back to what worked last year.
Maybe with some practice time and more coaching we could slowly go to the motion offense. Rudy is always in motion so we could start with him.
hg
that's what fall camp is for
I suppose if there’s a coaching change during the season, the new HC might try to change the system…but otherwise the coaching staff will install (or update) the offense/defense during fall camp and tweak it as necessary during the season during the few times the team has a couple of days off
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Um it's been like this for two and a half seasons
Solutions:
1. Coaching change
2. Personnel change
Barring either of those, expect to see a steady stream of jumpers for seasons to come.
Blazer Fan
When Martell is active
every where(Defense,Reb),I think he plays better on offense.And,Shooting slumps are all Mental,IMO.
by DowntownVinnie on Dec 22, 2009 7:52 AM PST up reply actions
For all of Martell’s athletic prowess, why doesn’t he get to the rim more? I know we’re using him as a deep shooter as a pass-out option. But that kid has hops. I really wish we’d let him using lanes and be aggressive around the basket. We need that right now. I agree Dave.
"Sometimes that light at the end of the tunnel is a train."
-- Charles Barkley
Seem like when he does, he's out of control,too.
He is like a lot of great ATHLETES who have ability, but can’t harness it,yet,kind of like Bayless,Travis.
by DowntownVinnie on Dec 22, 2009 7:56 AM PST up reply actions
Surely Martell could draw more fouls
If he attacks the basket like we know he can. Gotta say his rebounding has been looking a bit better.
a couple of weeks ago
I remember watching Martell take the ball off the dribble into the paint and…turn it over
Cringe-tastic, very reminiscent of Travis
pre fall camp workouts is the time for experimentation, not during the championship season
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
another word: finishing
I posted this in another thread, yesterday
But Martell is not proficient at finishing at the rim off the dribble. Ball handling is oft-cited as his glaring weakness just getting to the rim, but when he does get there – his effective field goal percentage is 46% (compare to Roy’s 59%) and he gets blocked 24% of the time (compare to Roy at 14%).
Bayless has an insided eFG% of 67%, and gets blocked only 11% of the time.
That just reinforces the idea that Martell isn’t built to attack the paint off the dribble – but could still be invaluable off screens, back cuts and weakside offensive rebounding, set 3’s.
There is a lot of offensive potential outside the set shot and “go around your man if he jumps at you” options.
by blacknoiseNW on Dec 22, 2009 9:47 AM PST up reply actions
May be even more an issue of rust there
While I’d imagine that he could do a fair amount of some form of shooting drills or exercises even with the boot on and during recovery, there’d be no way to really simulate leaping into traffic and finishing without the full go ahead.
As you said, he’s shooting a 46% eFG% inside this year. Looking back at his last healthy season, he was shooting 59% eFG% on inside shots. Admittedly, part of this comes from him going inside more (25% of his shots this year compared to 17% of his shots then), but that’s a pretty humongous drop that probably can’t be attributed entirely to the greater number of shots.
#52
Two more words:
Paul Allen
This guy was his pick (and painful lesson in BB management 101)
John Nash selected Telfair the year before
and he wasn’t going to select CP3 or Williams the next year, so Martell’s impressive workout was enough to push the owner in the “right” direction
KP knew better and argued for CP3, but unfortunately he didn’t have the owner’s complete attention at the time. Since then, Allen has learned to trust in KP’s “golden gut” but the Patty Mills decision this fall may have been an “exception” to that
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
lucky for him or he'd be gone by now
All of the anticipation of KP making a trade last year went down the tubes when Webster cracked his foot.
Now with all the injuries, he’s getting a second (or is that 3rd or 4th) chance.
A decent game for a reserve- he ain’t no starter on a top-tier team.
Since he isn't a starter
why are you so bothered by him? He’s a reserve who is filling in for the starter until he comes back.
#52
Yup
He’s just keeping the spot warm for Nic.
"My shoulder is OK. And away we go." -- Nic Batum
"wang-dang diddly wubba SPROING wow-wow" -- Dave
by DonkeyShins on Dec 22, 2009 12:00 PM PST up reply actions
there was a fair bit of territorial jealousy surrounding offensive possessions at that time
You mean there isn’t any trace of that “attitude” now? (Looking at you, Brandon “option 1” Roy and LMA “option 2”)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
On Brandon Roy
Remember last year, after the L*ker loss, Nate changed the offense for BRoy because he wasn’t good at coming off the pick and roll. Then BRoy and LMA did the pick and pop almost exclusively.
I do believe the reason we don’t do the pick and roll and all the options is because BRoy isn’t good at it. I also believe that is why Nate wanted Andre on the second unit so they could implement the pick and roll with Rudy, Batuum or Martell, Travis and Joel.
We can’t put BRoy’s play out to pasture, but I would think we could force him to learn to perfect the pick and roll in the summer rather then not touching the BB all summer. He did practice catch and shoot and that shows up great this year.
If he insists on having the ball in his hand and create, which is fine with me, he needs to learn how to initiate the pick and roll and finding cutters rather then just dish out to the open three which is the lazy way out and is ineffective if the threes are not falling.
I am not against anything the Blazers or BRoy does, just in favor of adding to what they don’t do.
hg
by BBK on Dec 22, 2009 8:39 AM PST reply actions 2 recs
If Roy isn't good at the pick and roll now
Then he needs to practice it in order to become good at it. It’s a learned skill, not like height or wingspan.
"My shoulder is OK. And away we go." -- Nic Batum
"wang-dang diddly wubba SPROING wow-wow" -- Dave
by DonkeyShins on Dec 22, 2009 12:01 PM PST up reply actions
Hard Reality
Hey hg,
So I think a big problem that nobody seems to want to talk about is that maybe Roy shouldn’t be the primary ball-handler. If he gets doubled every time he gets the ball and doesn’t know how to use his teammates to make the play out of it, maybe he should be playing off the ball more.
I heard that he had to take McMillan aside back in the day and tell him that he’s better with the ball, and the results were terrific. Well, that was then—this is now. The league knows what he can do now and keys their defense to stopping him. When he has the ball, that’s easy—just send the whole team at him and watch him scramble. When he doesn’t have the ball, it gets tricky.
Aside from Roy being the primary ball handler making it easy for the opposing team to organize their defense, it makes our offense very predictable. When he’s got it at the top of the key, you know what’s coming: he’ll drive and finish at the rim or hesitate and pop up for the jumper. Lucky for us, Roy’s a badass and more often than not, that shot goes in. What sucks is that this maneuver usually eats up most of the shot clock, as Roy likes to stare his guy down and get in the zone.
I’d like to see Miller or Bayless with the ball and watch the other team try to keep an eye on Roy without getting called for illegal defense. The key here is for the point guards to get Roy the ball often enough to keep his numbers up, which they can. I wouldn’t mind seeing Roy’s assist numbers go down and our point guard’s increase.
Holy Crap
That was insightful, knowledgeable,a great memory,too.Must be an ex- coach.No, really ,hg that was great.
This is why
I have very little faith in Nate as our coach. He’s had a few years now to implement his coaching style and this is what we’ve got. And if I’m wrong about Nate then we have to assume it’s our players that’s the problem. I’m more inclined to think that Nate just doesn’t have a motion offense kind of mind. We have too much talent on this team to have such a crapy offense.
I am not against what we have in Nate.
IMO, Nate was a PG so he teaches from the pg prespective. He may have not played the motion offense so he doesn’t teach it
That may be the problem with getting scores in the paint. He knows driving and dishing and that is what he teaches.
He doesn’t use our bigs like he should and uses them on D to bail out the pg’s. I wonder why.
Anyway Nate is still a young coach and he is learning his job and the players. Maybe the players and Nate will learn as they go.
I am not for replacing Nate, I am just saying like the players, he is not without fault.
hg
He knows driving and dishing and that is what he teaches.
My recollection of Nate the player was that he was a post-entry passer more than a master of penetration
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
he also shot a lot of 3s
at least against Portland
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I have to admit
After reading about Nate’s dinner with Andre I was expecting fall camp to bring a lot more offensive versatility to the team than we’ve seen so far
How much was McMillian giving “lip service” to Miller in July, and how much were those new creative ideas “resisted” by Roy and LMA may not be known for years (if at all)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I've seen a bunch of Championships with the Triangle Offense and the Boston Curl
The Lakers are the most efficient offensive team right now and play mostly the Tex Winter’s triangle offense. Of course the Bulls had much success with that in their day.
Neither teams have a quick penetrating PG and both rely on the scoring guard to often start the offensive. Unlike the Lakers, the Blazers don’t have 3 good front-line scoring threats. But it is a system that has proven effective for getting your points.
The old Boston days with Bird, McHale, and Parrish was the most effective use of low-post curls in recent times. Of course Parrish could hit the jumper and Bird could hit almost anything. But if Brandon would use Aldridge in the same way- curling around the low-post screener, either him or Aldridge should have a decent shot inside the paint.
The current use of above the free-throw line screens is not very effective. It takes the big man too far from the hoop and allows the defense time to rotate.
the lakers are just running the triangle inorder to get into isolation plays.
literally, watch them. the triangle does nothing for them. they dont do the ping passes. nothing. they just isolate every time down the floor. thats there best option to be honest.
Martell is the answer
but only if the question is ‘who did Portland draft other then Chris Paul or Deron Williams’
Expecting him to be the answer to Portland’s offensive woes is simply investing more in a mirage. Webster is too leaky a vessel to put much hope in. And now I lead the league in bad metaphors
In case anybody hasn’t noticed, Martell is a bad ball-handler. Not only is he turnover prone when he puts the ball on the floor, but he’s quite likely to make bad decisions with the ball as well. That’s not gong to change dramatically in my view. Why? Because Martell has had plenty of opportunities to this point and nothing changes with his game. Sure he makes improvements. But they are the incremental improvements you would expect from a maturing player. His basic game has not changed though.
Martell has been assisted on 81% of his baskets this season. Even Steve Blake has a lower number. Expecting Martell to become a 3rd option or anything like that when he is so dependent on his teammates to set him up is simply unrealistic in my view, especially considering martell’s rather flat career trajectory.
Hey, he's only 23 years old...
Just like Rudy Gay and one year younger than Luol Deng ; )
And I don't think anyone would argue
That Martell is anywhere NEAR those players. Rudy Gay turned down an 11m/yr extension this offseason because he’s good enough to get more on the open market. Deng was a borderline all-star a few years back and is still an excellent mid-range shooter and decision-maker
This is exactly the problem with the Blazers offense
Being assisted on 81% of his FGs is a bad thing? At no point did Dave say that Martell needs to have the ball in his hands and creating shots on his own, as if simple observation wouldn’t make it clear that that is a bad thing. There are ways to be a viable option on offense without just giving a guy the ball and telling him to get a shot, which we seem to do a fair amount of the time with Brandon, LA, Travis, Bayless, and, to a lesser extent, Rudy. It is rare that we see a guy receive the ball in an immediate position to score except on simple kickouts from Roy, and that’s a bad thing.
In 2002-2003 (the earliest year 82games has stats for), Reggie Miller was the 4th leading scorer on the Pacers and was assisted on 93% of his FGs. Was he the centerpiece of the offense that year? Of course not, that fell on Jermaine O’Neal and Ron Artest, but was he still a big part of the offense despite being assisted so much? Sure. Rip Hamilton is regularly assisted on over 70% of his shots despite being a bigger part of the offense than Miller was that year or that Dave is asking Martell to be.
If anything, the underlying problem illustrated here is that the only way guys are getting decent shots, or shots period (I don’t classify a Lamarcus turnaround from 18 feet with a hand in his face as “decent”) is because of our individual players’ ability to beat guys one on one. That’s not a terrible thing when you have Brandon Roy on your team, but asking anyone on this team besides him and possibly Bayless right now to do that repeatedly doesn’t look to be a blueprint for an efficient offense in the long term without the herculean offensive rebounding effort we had last year.
Maybe Dave’s plan is right and Martell could help us here. I don’t think there’s any one magic bullet here. Jscot has a long post about our deficiencies running the pick and roll, that’s another possibility. Both of them, however, address the core problem of getting a decent shot without Brandon, Bayless or Miller having to simply take their guy off the dribble, and then either get fouled, finish in traffic, or find the open man. Those guys are good enough that they can do that, but none of them are good enough to consistently beat good defensive teams doing only that.
#52
by Royster on Dec 22, 2009 10:13 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Precisely
I read moldorf’s comment and thought, “Did we read the same original post here?” Dave is NOT talking about giving Martell the ball on offense and telling him to try and score as the third option, he is talking about running some plays where Martell comes off screens, catches, and shoots. The fact that Martell doesn’t have good handles or make good decisions is completely irrelevant.
#52
somewhat relevant
but only in that if Martell was another Roy/Miller/Bayless type that scores off the dribble, he would have less potential to be an effective complimentary player
by blacknoiseNW on Dec 22, 2009 10:40 AM PST up reply actions
But why Webster then?
I’m saying webster is simply not that an effective player.
“running some plays where Martell comes off screens, catches, and shoots” is fundamentally what is already done for Webster. His FG% over his career is only .404, and is currently .378. He’s only had one season out of 4 when his FG% was above .400.
Dave is talking about getting him more mid-range opportunities off of those screens. Well, in Martell’s last 3 seasons of playing, here are his shooting percentages from a range of 10-15 feet:
07: 29%
08: 40%
10: 38%
and from a range of 16-23 feet:
07: 35%
08: 38%
10: 26%
compare tose numbers at 16-23 feet to Travis outlaw for instance:
07: 42%
08: 41%
09: 44%
10: 41%
Martell simply has not shown that he can be anything close to an efficient enough shooter inside the 3 point line to warrant getting more opportunities there or having Portland’s offense geared specifically to accomplish that.
That’s not to say that portland shouldn’t add more components into their offense like screens and back cuts. But it is to say that Portland has better options to utilize those schemes then Webster. He hasn’t proven he deserves those opportunities.
Would you say that Martell is up to speed yet after taking a year off?
Also there is the defensive issue. I hear what you are saying, but Martell should and will improve on those numbers. Particularly the numbers for this year.
#52
by KINGofMACct on Dec 22, 2009 11:30 AM PST up reply actions
his number are definitely worse this year then in 08
however, what I’m pointing out that overall, his 07/08 numbers, which were his best season, are still weak.
The only reason Martell has a credible eFG% is because of the high number of 3 point shots he takes. He shoots a decent percentage on those, but when he go inside of the 3 point line his shooting percentage does not increase enough to prevent his efficiency from dropping.
Again, I hear what you are saying, but..
We are talking about a developing player on a developing team. A player who has been thrust into the starting responsibilities because of injuries. Dave is talking about new options—and I think this one is reasonable to take a look at, along with as many others as we can get into the game plan. I am so tired of the one on one and the predictability.
#52
by KINGofMACct on Dec 22, 2009 11:42 AM PST up reply actions
Sounds like an excuse
IMO, he wasn’t just “thrust” into the starting lineup
Martell started 70 games in 07/08 and entered the season having started 115 games in his career. He’d averaged 25 minutes a game in his previous 2 seasons.
Last season, Batum was actually thrust into the starting lineup. Martell has not been. he’s been there plenty before
See the Synergy Sports data below
And besides, what does it matter what Travis Outlaw is shooting from 16-23 feet right now, it’s not like we can throw him out there right now.
The issue is, of our healthy guys right now, and for the foreseeable future, at least for another month until Rudy gets back, we need to generate offense somehow. Webster showed in previous seasons that he can be relatively efficient in this situation, so it’s a possibility that Dave threw out. While Travis may have shot better than him the past few years, we can’t have that discussion of Webster v. Travis for another couple months until his foot has healed. Same with Batum and his shoulder, and Rudy and his back.
Now, if we wanted to argue about the merits of Webster vs. increased roles for Bayless, Miller, Howard, Przy or Blake, that’d another viable option, as would an increased use of the Roy-LA P&R like I mentioned jscot said above. There are probably other options, but comparing him to unavailable ones simply presents a false choice.
#52
What I meant was:
by using outlaw as a comparison i was showing that Martell’s numbers when shooting inside the 3 point line were actually quite poor
If portland was to develop more methods of getting players open shots, Martell would not be the Blazers best option,,,even with the current injuries
This is a pretty definitive statement
If portland was to develop more methods of getting players open shots, Martell would not be the Blazers best option,,,even with the current injuries
Particularly considering some different sets and a player coming off injury. You man be correct, but I don’t see it as fact.
#52
by KINGofMACct on Dec 22, 2009 11:46 AM PST up reply actions
of course it isn't
absolute fact. These are all pretty much opinions here.
I’m just pointing out, that like almost all things Martell, it’s about 75% hope and 25% reality. Hoping that he would become much more efficient at shooting inside the 3 point line then he has been for over 3 seasons seems wishful thinking.
To me, what you are saying is that you do not believe in Martell's development potential as a player.
You do not like what you have seen, therefore…
You may be correct, but aren’t they going to have to give him an extended opportunity to prove himself in order to find out more definitively? Seems like they have committed to that path to a certain extent. Also, the difficulty of coming directly out of high school vs playing several years of college basketball must be accounted for here?
#52
by KINGofMACct on Dec 22, 2009 12:04 PM PST up reply actions
The high school thing is an excuse
there have been a lot of players who have come out of high school. This is Martell’s 4th season of playing and he’s 5 years removed from high school
What I see you saying may be applicable to a 19 or 20 year old. I don’t think it’s so much the case for a player who is 23 years old and has had the playing time opportunity that Martell has had
It seems that people are always expecting martell to take a large step forward in his performance. Strange, because to this point, the improvements he has made from seaso to season have always been small and incremental
Yes, his contract seems to assure that he’ll continue to get opportunity. He’ll likely be around portland for a while.
As a note
Jermain Oneal, Travis, Martell, Greg, and Jerryd (just to name a few Blazers) have all had issues making the jump to the NBA level with little or no college experience. I don’t think it is a non-factor. When you add a whole season missed due to injury, just as he appeared to be ready to hit his stride, that hurts.
#52
by KINGofMACct on Dec 22, 2009 12:30 PM PST up reply actions
Do you really think
that is a persuasive argument?
in his first seasom Martell played 1070 minutes while jermaine played 458
Over his first 3 seasons, Martell played 4961 minutes in 218 games and started 115 of those games. By contrast, Jermaine logged 1576 minutes in 140 games, and started 10.
Webster had that 1070 minutes in his first season while Outlaw only had 812 minutes in his first TWO seasons.
I’ve made this point and it’s valid: Martell has had significantly more playing opportunity then any of those other players. Saying he’s still trying of overcome a ‘straight out of high school’ stigma seems a lot like an excuse for a 23 year old player who has averaged nearly 25 minutes a game over the last 2 1/3 seasons.
Martell supposedly came in much more NBA ready then the other players you mentioned. He was more physically mature.
I am not really trying to persuade you per say
First of all I doubt if that is possible at this point in time. I am also not completely convinced of the outcome for Martell myself.
What I am looking for is a balanced viewpoint.
Martell started out with baby fat. His body has definitely changed from when I first saw him in summer league. As far as playing time goes, Martell started out on a young team that was not very good and therefore had an opportunity for playing time from the start—but he still struggled. The other players I mentioned came into situations with more competition for playing time and received fewer minutes as a result. The common thread for me is that time or not, they all struggled—even with Greg and Jerryd having very good college years they still struggled mightily with the jump in competition—psychologically and mentally as much as anything.
#52
Like it or not
Martell is our starting SF, in part because he brings hustle, defense, and rebounding. If he’s going to be out there, we’ll be a better team if we can find him some easy shots.
#52
by jscot on Dec 22, 2009 2:00 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Why Webster?
Because he’s the only SF we have, and because who else besides Brandon and LMA can we hope to get some scoring out of right now?
Comparing him to Travis does no good, because we don’t have Travis, and may not have him at all this year.
We’re trying to survive until Rudy and Nic get back. It would really, really help to get some production out of Martell, and the best way to do that would be to put him in positions where he has a reasonable chance of success a few times a game. Maybe he’ll get hot and win us a game here or there.
#52
synergy weighs in
this season martell webster is shooting 28.6% coming off of screens. these plays represent 8 percent of his offense, the third largest part of his offense (after spot ups and transition). he rates “below average” and is in the 17th percentile coming off screens in the league.
by comparison he shoots 38.5% spotting up, 44% in transition, 38.5% on putbacks, 35,7% in isolation, 46.2% off cuts, 36.4% as the pick and roll ballhandler, and 27.3% off a hand off.
stats courtesy of: http://www.synergysportstech.com/
Well, 8 percent of his offense means
we’re talking about roughly 20 shots here that we’re making the judgment on, assuming I understand this correctly (probably a couple more since I assume it factors in TO’s and assists as part of his offense). I’d like to see the data for his career historically before anyone is declared “vindicated”.
#52
hmmm... I obviously spoke too soon.
44% on 2s still isn’t very efficient regular offense, but I should still apologize for jumping the gun.
#52
i did the same thing. that’s why i went back a second time to check.
by Ben Golliver on Dec 22, 2009 10:44 AM PST up reply actions
Well, I think we can all agree
that building an offense around Martell a la the Pacers around Reggie Miller in the ‘90s would be a recipe for failure, but as you just said about LA’s pick and pops, it could be more efficient than some of the alternatives. I’d also throw in the “let the clock run down, dump it to Miller and have him take a wild three” as something it could be more efficient than.
#52
Almost any offensive option is better than the Miller three point flaming bag?
How about a 17 foot jump shot from Priz on the wing?
#52
by comparison…
for the 2007-2008 season… webster was 79th percentile/“very good” off screens. was 13% of his offensive situations. he shots 44.2% in that situation.
looking at the per game attempts, in 2007 he took twice as many attempts (1.3) compared to (.7) this season.
so…
he’s taking less. he’s less effective on those he’s taking. but he was never taking that many to begin with. this is likely not going to be a game changer one way or the other.
by Ben Golliver on Dec 22, 2009 10:36 AM PST up reply actions
Game changer, no
but if we run it a couple more times a game and he hits at the level he did that year, it would add one more thing the defense needs to be aware of — because if he hits a couple, then he has it going, and if Martell gets it going he can hurt you.
#52
maybe
but Martell has the shooting talent – his skill is what is lagging behind. I think we can safely say that his skills are rusty after losing a whole season, and that he is much more likely to be in mid season form in the middle of the second half, rather than the middle of the first half…
by blacknoiseNW on Dec 22, 2009 10:44 AM PST up reply actions
it would be difficult for martell to not improve and still play. so i guess we agree on that.
by Ben Golliver on Dec 22, 2009 10:45 AM PST up reply actions
I'm a big fan of Martell's intangibles
which warrants some playing time all by itself (ok, so maybe being the only SF on the active roster might help a little, too)
But Martell’s hypothetical potential as a complimentary scorer is still pretty high – and that warrant’s some serious patience so long as he can contribute in other ways in the meanwhile.
by blacknoiseNW on Dec 22, 2009 10:51 AM PST up reply actions
I disagree
He’s being very scrappy lately on the boards, etc. Isn’t “scrappy” all Nate needs to give long minutes?
#52
for the next month sure. once rudy and to a greater extent nic come back, no.
by Ben Golliver on Dec 22, 2009 2:07 PM PST up reply actions
Sounds right
Maybe some of the rust will come off and he’ll start shooting better. I hope. I’d like to see him still get some PT.
#52
Chad Ford said a few years ago
That when scouts look at prospects’ jump shots, pretty much all NBA scouts prefer the guy who inexplicably makes shots with poor form than one who misses with pretty form. The argument being that you can teach a shot-maker better mechanics, but if a player misses a lot with good mechanics there’s not a lot you can do. I feel like most Martell fans talk about how pretty his jumper looks leaing his hands. If this is the case, and the NBA scouts are right, can we actually expect marked improement on Martell;s jumper? Seems like he’s had plenty of time to work on it at this point… Look at the leap Bayless took in a single year.
His jumper when he is set with his feet is not so much the problem. It’s his handles when driving with the ball as Dave stated above (comparable to Rudy and Travis, but not better, especially with his left hand); shooting out of movement and/or off balance after coming around a screen (where Travis is much better); and finishing close to the rim when there is no dunk available.
Not really
I count two that matter. “If we run it a couple more times” and “if he hits at the level he did that year.” That’s all that is needed.
The fact that a hot Martell can hurt you badly is indisputable, and the whole league knows it. It may not happen often, but when it does, look out. So they have to respect plays run for him and make sure they defend them, so he doesn’t crank up.
#52
i think martell typifies both the strengths and weaknesses of an average nba wing. a hot average nba wing can always kill you. a cold average nba wing will often find his shots/touches decreased in a hurry.
i am neutral with martell getting more touches/plays when brandon is not on the floor. but when brandon, and especially when both brandon and lamarcus are on the floor simultaneously, i’d rather they get the touches and shots, even if they aren’t ideal looks their effectiveness is just that much better.
although the blazers’ offense isn’t pretty it isn’t wholly ineffective. you’ve got a list of potential improvements pointed out above. taking just one of your top 3 and seeing it through to completion would impact games far more than what we’re asking and can reasonably expect from martell.
by Ben Golliver on Dec 22, 2009 2:18 PM PST up reply actions
I agree that the p'n'r with Aldridge would be more important
I view what Dave suggested as an additional wrinkle to be used at the same time, creating even more defensive tension.
#52
While we're on the subject here
any chance we could get Rudy’s numbers off screens here for this year and last?
#52
If I ask my wife for a beer
she tells me to go get it myself
by blacknoiseNW on Dec 22, 2009 10:54 AM PST up reply actions
If only "getting a beer" here
didn’t require an expensive paid subscription to the beer provider that I only used twice a year, I’d be all over it myself.
Oh, to be Daryl Morey for a day, though. Thanks again, Ben.
#52
yeah
beer is still in the store, and only the “wife” has a membership. Good thing Ben is such a sport.
by blacknoiseNW on Dec 22, 2009 11:03 AM PST up reply actions
i called in the ninja. he will be here shortly.
by Ben Golliver on Dec 22, 2009 10:57 AM PST up reply actions
ask and ye shall receive
Coming off the screen represents 15% of Rudy’s game where he ranks in the 82nd percentile shooting 55.6. he roughly goes 40% left 60% right off the screen.
Left he shoots 53.3% To the Right he shoots it at 66.7%
As a spot-up shooter which represents a much larger portion of his offense, he shoots about 36.5%
by InvisibleNinja on Dec 22, 2009 11:15 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
All screens are not equal
Slow developing, obvious screen situations, are not the same as quick hitting, varied screens and movement. Right bow we specialize in the obvious, slow, variety of screen.
#52
by KINGofMACct on Dec 22, 2009 11:18 AM PST up reply actions
maybe so. there’s a marked difference in effectiveness from 2007 to this season.
but looking at the full 2007 numbers the largest point is that he’s never had shooting off screens as anything but a small part of his offensive situations. this year, he’s just taking even less of them and shooting worse.
his overall offensive effectiveness from 2007 until this year has dropped considerably. from 78th percentile to 53rd percentile. the one aspect of his game that has improved is his spot up shooting from 35.1% to 38.5% from 2007 until this season.
overall i think martell is less effective than he could be and could be used more effectively. but i think nate could fairly argue that possessions are better/more efficiently put to use with brandon in isolation than martell coming off screens.
by Ben Golliver on Dec 22, 2009 11:36 AM PST up reply actions
the above wasn’t very clear. sorry.
if we were to give martell his 2007 numbers this season — the blazers used him as often and he produced as well coming off screens this year as he did then — you’d be adding less than 1 point per game of offense from martell and you’d be running less than 1 more play for him.
by Ben Golliver on Dec 22, 2009 11:44 AM PST up reply actions
Those stats don't show
the full picture of the situation. I’ll share this and then leave it alone.
We’re talking about a no-dribble screen at the outside of the post-area range, right hand side of the bucket. Back in the day that was in Zach Randolph’s wheelhouse. There was no way he was giving up that spot to Martell. But when Zach went down and the area was empty Martell got tried there with exactly this kind of screen and succeeded. It didn’t last because he was young, not consistent, and Zach eventually came back. But it was there. It also doesn’t show up well in the year-long averages because we’re talking about a few games where he really let loose divided by 82.
Right now we’ve lost our main post presence. LaMarcus fills in but he often posts on the other side of the floor. There’s room. There’s also a need for a third scorer. The situation that opened the door for Martell back in the day has come again. This time Webster is older, knows his place, and can stay on the floor because of the rest of his play so the liabilities that submarined him before aren’t there, at least not to the same strength.
Plus there’s a desperate need for something to break the monotony of high-floor dribbling and/or threes. Having someone else score in a different way than our guards and LaMarcus usually do can be of value in itself. And this is really additive…we’re not talking about reducing Roy’s shots or LMA’s. We’re talking about someone else doing something they don’t in a way that still allows them to participate.
As far as I can see it’s worth a try for the latter reason alone. It’s something you can add in simply, doesn’t disrupt anybody, and makes effective use of the resources at hand.
—Dave
like i said below i agree there’s potential for martell to develop. easier shots are a sure way to help that happen. i was taking issue with…
When the Blazers did run plays for Martell he tended to score in droves.
we just can’t quantify that statement. he made 50 shots off screens for the entire 2007 season. a season where he topped 20 points 7 times. his career year. he shot less than 50 percent on these shots so as many times (more actually) as he scored in droves he failed to score. a year when the team needed his offense.
now, the team needs his offense again but only in the short term. his effectiveness has dropped from his career year. his shooting percentages have dropped across the board except for spot-up shooting. perhaps he’s working through the recovery process? it’s just difficult to see evidence of short-term potential here or demonstrated long-term system-changing ability in anything that martell does offensively, particularly this season.
i think nate mcmillan looks at all of that and figures that he’ll take his chances riding roy and aldridge until rudy gets back.
by Ben Golliver on Dec 22, 2009 12:16 PM PST up reply actions
Uh oh
Mom & Dad are having an argument.
"My shoulder is OK. And away we go." -- Nic Batum
"wang-dang diddly wubba SPROING wow-wow" -- Dave
by DonkeyShins on Dec 22, 2009 12:29 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
WE"RE NOT ARGUING. GET BACK IN YOUR ROOM YOUNG MAN
by Ben Golliver on Dec 22, 2009 12:39 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
not to mention
LMA likes to set hard screens about as much as he looks forwards to a trip to the dentist
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Brandon in isolation is almost assuredly more effective than Webster off screens
but look at Brandon’s splits recently. He’s averaging 42 mpg in December, and has only played under 40 (counting 39:56 and 39:58 as 40 minutes) one time in the entire month with his shots are up nearly 50% compared to October and November as well. Obviously that helps us since he’s our best player, but is this a pace he can maintain without being completely worn down by April, even with Rudy, Trout and Nic eventually coming back?
I agree that Dave could certainly be wrong with the prescription of running Webster off screens more, but I’d say the core problem of needing to generate offense from somewhere else, even if it’s slightly less efficient than what we get out of Brandon remains the same in order to keep him somewhat fresh and injury-free.
#52
It is hard for me to believe that people would argue against
more balanced scoring.
#52
by KINGofMACct on Dec 22, 2009 11:52 AM PST up reply actions
more balanced scoring and less wear and tear on brandon are great goals. goals that i support as well. i think you can make a fair case for every role player that he could score more if given more easy looks.
i only question whether martell has really demonstrated the abilities described. i agree he has potential to do these things in the future.
by Ben Golliver on Dec 22, 2009 11:57 AM PST up reply actions
Well, I personally have my doubts
that we could get any more offense out of Juwan Howard than we’re already getting, but agreed about everyone else.
#52
more from synergy
martell shoots 33.3% coming off a screen to his left. 16.7% coming off a screen to his right. he comes off left at a ratio of 7:3 compared to right.
who tracks this stuff
and how much do they get paid?
by blacknoiseNW on Dec 22, 2009 10:45 AM PST up reply actions
i know some trackers but don’t know what they make. synergy charges big dollars for their services but who knows how much the actual trackers see.
by Ben Golliver on Dec 22, 2009 10:59 AM PST up reply actions
big factor in data quality
synergy appears to have quality in spades…
by blacknoiseNW on Dec 22, 2009 11:02 AM PST up reply actions
Video logging for Synergy or an individual team is pretty much an entry-level job to get a foot into pro basketball analysis/management. I don’t know exact rates, but you don’t get rich. They pretty much sell the hope that a number of future front office executives started in the video room.
Little interesting detail business detail: Founded by a former Suns analyst/videographer, and someone who developed video solutions that Microsoft bought. Largest investor in Snyergy is Mark Cuban. Who got ridiculed when he revealed a statistical system partly designed by Mr. Winston that showed Dirk and Kidd very high up ahead of some of the usual suspects.
The two are unrelated
The things Synergy tracks, charts, and reports are objective statistics that would take an individual or team or prohibitive amount of time to do themselves. Wholly different than a subjective algorithm written by an independent entity (college prof) who admittedly didn’t even watch very much basketball and was just let go by the team.
pin down curls
Somebody would set a pick 12-15 feet from the basket in a diagonal line from the rim. Webster would cut through the lane from the weak side, curl around from beneath the screen, a passer at the top of the lane would hit him, and BAM! Two points on the quick jumper again and again and again.
That play seems to have disappeared from the Portland lexicon. Given the circumstances, short-handed and in a halfcourt-laden offense, I’d like to see it make a comeback
I agree. This is the kind of offense that could be executed with Blake at the PG and Rudy/Webster on the wings. Joel and Howard (etc) could set the picks. No PnR, ISO or “penetrator” is required
Jack Ramsay, Jim Paxson, early ’80s. Boring yet effective
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Yup
I’d rather have wins than NBA.com playmaker videos. Boring is good.
"My shoulder is OK. And away we go." -- Nic Batum
"wang-dang diddly wubba SPROING wow-wow" -- Dave
by DonkeyShins on Dec 22, 2009 12:31 PM PST up reply actions
I find it interesting that Dwight uses Houston
a team that shoots more 3’s than us and at a lower%. They even shoot a lower % from the field.
Overall I agree that the Blazers need a better offensive system, but the main problem is health. This team would be much better with a healthy Oden, Rudy, Travis, and Nic. Instead we have Howard and Cunningham getting shots.
It would be nice to use the pick and roll more, but at the same time there are plenty of teams that play it very well. On top of that you need to have the right players to make it work. Brandon Roy is more of a creator, so I say let him create. He makes a lot of plays that result in easy baskets for his teammates. If LMA gave us anything in Orlando, we would have won.
It’s not all bad in Blazerland, so I say let it roll for a bit.
OMG I just jizzed in my France
Houston's percentages
Are at least partially explained by their lack of offensive talent. If they had the Blazers’ personnel (even post-injury) I’d put a fair amount down that they would be shooting a better percentage then they or we are now.
I am strongly in favor of higher utilization of Martell in general
I would like to see Roy playing fewer minutes and getting 95 percent of those minutes as a 2 guard. I would like to see Martell getting lots of minutes.
I would like to see them stop running two of the Point Guard Three (soon to be Four?) out there together as often as they do. This will help on the defensive end in particular, and also with rebounding.
I think that in general, Martell is underutilized and that with a little practice time, the Blazers could incorporate him efficiently into the offense. They just don’t seem to be inclined to use him as much as I would like to see him used. – Elgin
Travis Outlaw, the Funnel Cake of the Blazers
I really like the points you make.
I would like to see them stop running two of the Point Guard Three (soon to be Four?) out there together as often as they do. This will help on the defensive end in particular, and also with rebounding.
This one in particular.
#52
You got me to see this Martell discussion
in a larger framework than what a lot of other posters are talking about. I can see some use for the three guards—although I am not much for using four like we did the other night—but only for short periods of time. Whether we like it or not Martell is a key player at this point in time. We have a bunch of guys trying to hold down the fort until reinforcements arrive.
#52
Roy playing fewer minutes and getting 95 percent of those minutes as a 2 guard.
Ditto. Not to mention more time with Bayless and Roy alone in the backcourt.
I would like to see Martell getting lots of minutes.
A deal to upgrade the SF position would be better, even though I like Batum’s potential
I would like to see them stop running two of the Point Guard…out there together as often as they do
Wishing for “less Blake” won’t automatically make it so
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
my short term solutions & long term expectations
short term:
1. Roy learn to use picks effectively & LMA learn to set effective picks: This has been stated many times by other posters here so I won’t elaborate again. I’ve always believed that as bad as our offense is right now, these two things plus pushing the ball would do wonder in the offense. Note that I am not even asking Roy to pass the ball to roller. That could be the advanced course for him. I am just asking him to use the screen to get “himself” open and attack the paint.
2. Wait for injured players to come back: ok it’s a lame solution but I’d rather wait than have any more expectation on Webster. The real threat from the “curl screen” play is that the player coming off screen can not only shoot, but drive and pass. Rudy is the only guy in our roster who is capable of that. Maybe it’s because I’ve never been a Webster believer, but I just don’t trust his ball-handling, decision-making and the ability to finish around the rim. If all he does coming off screens is shoot, then once the defense knows that I’d expect Webster would see a hand in his face every time he shoots coming off screens.
long term expectations on Blazers offense:
1. Run ISO only for Roy, Aldridge and Oden
2. Push the ball consistently: it doesn’t have to be coast-to-coast fastbreak every time. But when guards bring the ball up, they need to aggressively probe the defense, add pressure and if opportunity presents itself, attack the rim. Only slow down when the defense is set or in late-game or end-of-quarter situations.
3. Run effective P&R: as mentioned above, Roy-Aldridge needs to step up in this area. I am also looking forward to what Bayless-Oden can do in this play.
4. Inside-out: Always try to establish inside presence. We need to depend on Oden on this one though.
5. Consistent drive-and-kick from wing players: In our current offensive scheme when our perimeter player is not initiating offense, his role becomes a spot-up shooter standing beyond the arc. I hope in the future all of them can have the ability to drive inside when catching the ball instead of just firing it. Right now Roy and Bayless have that. Miller is ok. I really hope Batum and Rudy can pick up this aspect of their game. I want to see when the ball swung around the perimeter, they can choose to shoot or put the ball on the floor, penetrate and create opportunity for himself or teammates. Of course it needs coaches’ encouragement as well.
I still don’t think we need a overhaul to salvage our offense nor do I think we need a fancy new offensive system installed. Just make #3-#5 the three bread-and-butter plays in half-court offense, give players more freedom to improvise, trust them to read and react and no need to call too many set plays. Both players and coaches have to mature first to make it happen. What injuries hurt us the most is it severely slow down this maturation process. That’s sad but it could still happen when they come back.
Look at the Spurs throughout this decade, their offense was never famous for its name like triangle offense from Lakers, princeton offense from Kings earlier this decade. Of course I am not an X’s and O’s experts and I believe experts could identify their offense as some kind of particular system.
But when you break it down to see why it works so well, you’d see them running great P&R, effective inside-out, guards know when to drive and when to shoot, when to push the ball and when to slow down – all of them are the things I mentioned above.
THAT’s my long term expectation on our offense, what’s yours?
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