Sched Ahead for 12/21/09, Week Eight -- Now with PROJECTIONS!!!

Yes, it has come, the moment you've all been waiting for, the return of the jscot Stupid Sched Projections (c)!  Be still, my beating heart!

All experienced Bedgers know that the methodology of these projections is completely suspect, generating numbers that no one could intelligently accept as indicative of anything.  But they are OUR numbers, and we love them.  That's just the way we roll.

Rookie Bedgers may not know about the projections.  Never fear, jscot is here, and I will explain them after the jump.

TIRED OLD SUMMARY INFO YOU GET EVERY WEEK

This weekly schedule analysis is based on four categories of games:

1. Home games against sub .500 teams.  Cream Puff Home.
2. Home games against winning teams (I'm including teams right at .500 in this category).  Jawbreaker Home.
3. Road games at losing teams.  Banana Peel Road.
4. Road games at winning teams.  Rocky Road.

A general formula for success in the NBA is to win almost all of Cat 1 (Cream Puff Home), a majority of Cat 2 (Jawbreaker Home) and Cat 3 (Banana Peel Road), and win some in Cat 4 (Rocky Road).  The contenders may win more than half of their Cat 4 games.

Back to Backs (hereafter BtoB) are also tracked so as to provide further data on schedule difficulty.

Last week's update

EXCITING NEW SUMMARY INFO ABOUT THE PROJECTIONS

The jscot Stupid Sched Projections were more accurate last year than any expert prognostications or anything generated using advanced metrics.  I am convinced that this is primarily because the stars aligned right, I sacrificed my third-born, and someone who believed in these was sticking pins in voodoo dolls at important moments to make it come out right.  (It is also because I constantly updated them, so the changes were so gradual that people didn't notice how wrong they had been earlier.  But don't tell anyone that.)

The projections work very simply.  I look (well, actually, my spreadsheet does, I'm much too lazy to do this myself) at the games that each team has played so far in each category of games.  Using my high-powered Excel expertise, I calculate a winning percentage for that team in that category of games (don't try this at home, kids, you might sprain your mouse finger).  I then multiply that percentage by the number of remaining games in that category, to calculate a projected number of wins from that category in remaining games.  Adding those projected wins to the wins already gained, I have a total projected number for that category.

Now, here's where it gets really tricky, so listen carefully.  I add up the projected total wins from each category and I have the Stupid Sched Projection.

This is a "projection" because it is based on extrapolating past performance.  It is a "sched projection" because it is based on the schedule of remaining games.  "But, WAIT!" you might say, "why is it stupid?"

How is it stupid?  Let me count the ways:

• Small sample size.  Phoenix has played precisely two Cat 2 games so far.  How can two games predict how they will play one quarter of their games this season?  Only in the realm of "stupid" projections can they do so.
• Ignores long term injury effects.  Portland has one Cat 4 win, at OKC.  Greg and Travis and Rudy played in that game.  How can we use a game in which those guys played to project games in which they won't play?  This is stupid! 
• Ignores in-season development.  Rookies often progress as the season goes along, other players have a hot start but fade.  This assumes teams will play the same at the end of the season as they played at the beginning of the season.  This never works out to be the case.

So why are we wasting our time with these?

• Because a lot of people like them.  Nuff said.
• Because they don't get caught up in a team getting hot at home or against weak competition.  Last year, everyone started to decide Utah was going to win the division when they caught up to everyone, winning a lot of games at once.  The spreadsheet knew -- six of their last ten were Cat 4 games, and they had been terrible all year in those games.  They went 1-5 in those six games, and dropped to third in the division.  The spreadsheet is better than W/L record.  The spreadsheet is better than home/away records -- because it knows not just whether or not you were at home, but also whether you played good teams or not.
• Because it gives us something to talk about besides why Nate played Blake so much, and some of us are getting tired of rehashing it over and over.  We don't KNOW why, for crying out loud!  Let's drown our sorrows after tough road losses in some stupid spreadsheet numbers that mean nothing, instead.  You can't get mad at the dumb spreadsheet, it is what it is.

CHANGES THIS WEEK

Milwaukee is back below .500, so their games are recategorized.  They change every week.  Wish they'd make up their mind.  Actually, I think they have, now.  OKC barely stayed above water, right at .500.  N.O. pretended they were going to make a run at .500, but it didn't last.  If they don't get there this week, they might not until mid-January -- they have a tougher stretch coming up.   

COMMENTS ON THE WEEK

Portland (3-1), a great week.  Won a Cream Puff (Cat 1) at home against Sacramento, a tough Cat 2 at home against the Suns, and then split the Cat 4 Rocky Road back to backs in Florida.  Out of the six game stretch starting with Phoenix, two wins would have been a good performance -- and we already have that, with a chance to do better.

Dallas (3-1).  Another good week for the Mavs, starting with a Cat 1 win at home against the Hornets, then a nice Cat 4 at OKC, before splitting Cat 2 Jawbreakers against Houston and Cleveland.  The Houston loss was more of a tooth-breaker, I suppose, with Landry sinking bits of his teeth into Dirk's elbow.  The Mavs beat the Cavs without Dirk, don't know if he'll be back for our game this week or not.

Denver (2-2) didn't have a very good week, winning a couple Cat 2s at home (OKC, Houston, both teams on a BtoB), but then slipping on two Banana Peel Cat3s in a row, at N.O. and Memphis. 

Houston (3-1) had a nice week.  Adelman cried about four straight back to backs, but they came out of the first two (a 4 in 5 nights) with three wins.  The only loss was a BtoB Cat 4 Rocky Road in Denver, with wins at home vs. Detroit (Cat 1 Cream Puff), at Dallas (Cat 4), and home to OKC (Cat 2 Jawbreaker, both teams BtoB). 

L.A.  (4-0) proved that, at least against bad teams, they CAN win away from Staples, with four Cat 3 Banana Peel wins, on consecutive BtoBs with two days off in between.  Victims -- Bulls, Bucks, Nets, Pistons.

N.O. (2-2) had an up and down week, playing a game in every category, winning at home and losing on the road.  The Cat 4 was at Dallas to start the week, the Cat 3 Banana Peel was at Toronto to end it.  In between, home wins vs. Detroit (Cat 1, Pistons were on a BtoB) and Denver (Cat 2) kept them respectable. 

The Blunder (1-3) had a tough week and paid the price, winning a Cat 1 Cream Puff at home against Detroit, but losing two BtoB Cat 4s at Denver and Houston (Rockets also on a BtoB) AND a Cat 2 Jawbreaker at home to Dallas.

Phoenix (2-1) had a decent week, opening with a good Cat 2 win at home vs. the Spurs and finishing with a Cat 1 Cream Puff win against Washington.  In between, they went on the Rocky Road to Portland, where a Byrannosaurus Rex tore their hearts out and stomped all over them. 

S.A. (2-1) pretty much did what you'd expect, losing a Cat 4 at Phoenix, winning a BtoB Cat 3 at G.S., and then winning a Cat 1 Cream Puff at home against Indiana.   

Utah (2-2) had a bizarre but not quite terrible week.  They started by dropping a Cat 1 Cream Puff at home to Minnesota.  How could a good team lose at home to the Timberwolves?  Ask Denver, I guess.  But Utah is 0-2 against them which is impressive, in a not good way.  Anyway, the Jazz then went out on the road and won two of three, losing as expected at Atlanta (Cat 4), but taking care of two Cat 3 Banana Peels, at NJ (Nets on a BtoB) and Charlotte (Jazz on a BtoB).

New Orleans and Utah (at home) each took a loss to losing teams, Denver took two for the second straight week. 

Helped themselves:  Portland, Dallas, Houston, L.A.

Held position: Phoenix, S.A. 

Hurt themselves:  Denver, N.O., Blunder, Utah.

The tables:

Cat 4 -- Rocky Road

Portland (at Miami), Dallas (at OKC), and Houston (at Dallas) got the only Cat 4 wins of the week.  Most teams have a few more of these left than we do, which could help us down the road. 

Cat 3 -- Banana Peel Road 

Denver has played far more road games against weak teams than anyone else -- and has lost their last four in this category.  Having most of their remaining road games be against winning teams could catch up to them.  Last year, the Nuggets only lost six games all year in this category, and they've already matched that this year.

Cat 2 -- Jawbreaker Home

Dallas and OKC took losses in this category this week.  Phoenix still has played only two games at home against winning teams.  If OKC and S.A. want to get rolling, holding the home court against good teams would be a place to start.

Cat 1 -- Cream Puff Home

Utah was the only team with a Cream Puff loss this week.  Houston still has a lot of these stored up.  Notice S.A.  The Spurs have played 10 home games against losing teams, and won all of them.  Take those out of their record and they would be 4-10!  The spreadsheet doesn't like the softness of their schedule, and their inability to perform well against strong teams. 

All Home Games

Dallas, OKC, and Utah lost home games this week..  As last week, L.A. has the fewest remaining home games, Phoenix and Houston the most.

All Away Games

Before this week, Western playoff contenders overall were 54-57 in road games.  After a 10-11 week, it stands at 64-68.  We had a 1-1 week, right in line with what the group did as a whole, and are hanging close to .500, just as most of the others.  Only Dallas and L.A. have particularly strong road records, only N.O. is really bad.  L.A. and S.A. have the most road games remaining, other than that it is reasonably balanced.

All Games Against Winning Teams

N.O., Denver, L.A., and S.A. have the most remaining games against winning teams.  This is not particularly good news for the Hornets and Spurs, seeing as they have very poor records against winning teams this year.  OKC does, too, but at least they have fewer of them left.  We don't have huge imbalances in our favor like we did last year at this time, but our schedule isn't as hard as some of the teams that we have to beat out to grab a playoff spot. 

All Games Against Losing Teams

Denver has the fewest remaining easy games, Houston and OKC the most remaining.  L.A. still hasn't lost to a losing team.  Bizarrely, Denver is 8-2 against winning teams but only 11-7 against losing teams -- so maybe it is to their advantage that most of their remaining games are against tougher competition.   

Back to Back Games Remaining

Notice the Hornets have not only fewer BtoBs than anyone, but fewer Cat 4 BtoBs.  Though S.A. and OKC do not have as many remaining as some other teams, they have more Cat 4s.  We'll get another of our Cat 4 BtoBs out of the way this week.  Of remaining back to backs, the following are the number of games where the other team is on a back to back as well: 

Net, the games where only the Western contender in question is on a back to back:

When you net these out, you can see that in terms of "sole" BtoBs, when a team is on a BtoB and their opponent isn't, the remaining schedule is very kind to Phoenix and not so kind to L.A.  We don't have that many remaining, but the ones we have are tough.  

Now, games where we are not on a back to back, but our opponent is:

Still an advantage for Denver -- most of their difficult home opponents will be tired.  But they cashed in two of those BtoBs with Cat2 wins this week, and still only went 2-2.  Only L.A. gets less help from tired opponents than we do the rest of the way.

The Projections

Here is the vital stuff:  the jscot Stupid Sched Projections. 

Standard Disclaimer:  How these work (if they can be said to work, which is doubtful), and why they are stupid, is explained above or in previous posts.  Do not blame me.  This is only the numbers.  It isn't the spreadsheet's fault, either, the spreadsheet is only doing what it is told to do.  Someone was stupid enough to tell the spreadsheet to do it, but if we want to talk about stupid, you are actually reading this.

Playoff seedings if everyone keeps winning in every category at exactly the same rate for the rest of the season, and if no .500 or better team turns into a losing team, or vice versa.

1. L.A.  66.5 wins.   
2. Phoenix.  62.4 wins.  
3. Dallas.  58.5 wins.
4. Denver.  57.5 wins.
5. Houston.  54.4 wins.
6. Utah.  49.0 wins.
7. Portland.  48.6 wins.
8. OKC.  43.4 wins.
9. S.A.  42.6 wins.
10. N.O.  39.4 wins.

The spreadsheet likes L.A.'s unbeaten record in Cat 1 and Cat 3, and the Suns' unbeaten record in Cat 2 and Cat 1.  It likes the Mavs' 4-2 record in Cat 4, the only team with a winning record in that category, Denver's unbeaten record in Cat 2, and Houston's unbeaten record in Cat 1.  It doesn't care that much about the Spurs' perfect record in Cat 1 because they've been abysmal in Cat 2 and 4.  It hates the Hornets' 0-8 record in Cat 4, but gives some credit for their 4-1 record in Cat 2 (their only home loss against a winning team was to Portland).

The Coming Week

1. Portland.  Well, well.  Last week in this spot, I said, "Crisis time."  We're now in "Bonus Time", as we got the two home wins and one road win we needed to get before Christmas.  Even one win this week would make for a decent week, with BtoB Cat 4s at Dallas and S.A., then home on Christmas Day to host Denver -- and we owe those guys one.  Two wins this week would be phenomenal -- and I wouldn't rule that out, since Dirk is not healthy and S.A. can't beat good teams.  The spreadsheet only projects about 1.1 wins for us this week, so getting even one would be decent.
2. Dallas.  Jawbreaker (do they really want to play more of those?) Cat 2 at home vs. Portland, then a Cream Puff at home vs. Memphis, before out on the road for a Cat 4 BtoB at Denver. 
3. Denver.  Open with a Cat 2 Jawbreaker at home vs. Atlanta (Hawks on a BtoB), then out for a Cat 4 Rocky Road at Portland.  Then, home for another Cat 2 Jawbreaker (Dallas, on a BtoB).  That will be four straight Cat 2s where the opponent was on a BtoB for the Nugs -- and their blogger actually complains about their schedule!  
4. Houston.  Two more BtoBs, with two days rest in between.  Open with a Cream Puff against the Clips at home (Clips on a BtoB), then on the Rocky Road at Orlando (BtoB), then a Cat 3 Banana Peel at NJ, and finally another Cat 4 BtoB at Cleveland.  
5. L.A.  Back home for two Cat 2s, OKC and Cleveland, then a Cat 3 Banana Peel at Sacramento (BtoB). 
6. N.O.  The Hornets have a chance to finally climb back to .500, with two games, a Cat 1 Cream Puff at home vs. G.S., then a Cat 3 Banana Peel at Chicago.  They'd best get these, it is about to get tougher next week. 
7. The "Blunder".  Likely to see the wrong side of .500 after a disappointing week this week.  Open with back to back Cat 4 Rocky Roads against L.A. and Phoenix, then a Cream Puff against Charlotte.  A bad week won't mean they are done, they have some easier games ahead. 
8. Phoenix.  They open with two Cat 2 Jawbreakers at home (OKC, Cleveland), with both rivals on the second of a back to back.  Then, they have their own BtoB, starting at home with a Cream Puff against the Clips and then going to G.S. for a dangerous BtoB Cat 3 Banana Peel.
9. S.A.  An opportunity to make a move.  A Cat 1 at home vs. the Clips, then a Cat 2 Jawbreaker hosting Portland (Blazers on a BtoB).  Then, out on the road with back to back Cat 3 Banana Peels at the Bucks and the Knicks.  They are 12-1 against losing teams, and get three of them this week -- and the fourth game is Portland on the fourth in five nights.  They will be disappointed with anything less than four wins. 
10. Utah.  The Jazz will look at their schedule, and say, "At least we don't have to play Minnesota this week!"  Two Cat 4s, at Orlando and Miami, then a Cat 1 at home against Philly.  

Clearly, the arrival of Tolliver has jumpstarted the team, and we're rolling again.  Despite the clunker at Orlando, which you know would be a tough one to get in any circumstances, we're looking like a playoff team again.  Some of those early losses, and of course the injuries, have reduced our margin for error considerably, but we're not done yet, Rudy should be back in a few weeks, and perhaps Nic a few weeks later.

Go, Blazers!