29. Do Over: The View from Miami
by timbo on Dec 21, 2009 9:19 AM PST
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I've always thought that the assist is the most over-rated statistic in basketball.
Think about it — when's the last time you heard a post-game expert say, "Portland won this game because they out-assisted Denver 19 to 12"?
The answer is never, because assists simply are not decisive factors in winning or losing a game. Assist totals are, at best, a statistic like single game +/- which is indicative of larger trends within a basketball contest. Particularly low assist totals, such as the team-record-low 7 collected by the Blazers on Saturday night in Orlando, might be indicative of poor movement away from the ball or excessive one-on-one play or an inability to hit open-look spot-up jumpers. (To what extent each of these things? Use your eyes and theorize, be an informed critic of basketball art...) Consistently low assist figures may be a warning flag for a self-centered, me first, gunning offensive mentality.
But decisive? No, one can not say that. Bad offensive design or poor hustle or ball greed might be the cause of a loss — but not a low assist total. There are lots of ways to lose a game, but that is not one of them.
Turnovers will lose a game for you. Allowing an opponent a high shooting percentage will lose a game for you. Not closing on open 3-point shooters will lose a game for you. Sending an opposing team to the (very efficient) free throw line too many times with fouls will lose a game for you. Failing to generate points efficiently yourself will lose a game for you. But a lack of assists? Never.
So why do many fans make such a big deal about assists? Why do people go to the work of calculating something as absurd as an "Assists-to-Turnovers Ratio" as if a good A:T ratio or a bad A:T ratio proves something or another? Why not a "Rebounds-to-Personal Fouls Ratio"? At least rebounding is a decisive factor in the question of who wins or loses a game...
After all, you do hear analysts say, "the Blazers won because they killed the Spurs on the glass, 45 to 32" or "Houston beat Portland because they had 8 more offensive rebounds than did the Blazers." If you get the boards, you are able to score points and your opponent is not. Rebounding is decisive. Assisting is not.
Seriously — who cares if a player has 14 assists or 10 assists or 5 assists or 1 assist? Obviously, the nights when Steve Nash has 12 assists are going to go better for the Phoenix Suns than nights when he has 4, but that's just another way of saying that the team hit some shots on the former night and which they didn't on the latter. Express that decisive fact in terms of shooting percentage or total points scored or points per possession — don't try and pretend causation where there is none.
By extension: of what value is a statistic like PER which pretends great value in the simple assist?
That so many otherwise intelligent people are in love with this pseudo-stat continues to baffle me...
Assists may be overrated stats, but that's not to say that there's no such thing as beautiful and productive passing...
Channel Surfing.
Saturday, Dec. 19.
Los Angeles Lakers (20-4) at New Jersey Nets (2-25).
Wow, what a riveting matchup — the best team in the Western Conference hits the road to visit the worst team in the East.
Hmmm, how can we make this even more one-sided? Oh, I know — the Lakers were on 2 days rest while the Nets were back-to-back, coming off a game in Toronto declared by play-by-play man Marv Albert to have quite possibly been "the lowest point of the season" for the hapless franchise. In the Canadian capital the Nets had fallen behind by 37 at the half (70-33!!!), essentially quitting on their coach, former Blazer Kiki Vandeweghe. After the game Nets players proclaimed their effort "pitiful" (Chris Douglas-Roberts) and "embarrassing" (Rafer Alston) to the assembled media in the locker room.
Somewhere, Lawrence Frank was sipping scotch and smiling.
This Laker visit was essentially a crap game with a predictable result, so some random observations that you might find interesting:
- The Nets at least gave effort in this game, something for which the Nets broadcasters were thankful. Nets even had a 2 point lead at halftime. As many as zero people watching the game figured the final score would end this way.
- I jest you not: this was a home crowd for the Lakers, a fact noted by Marvelous. Every Los Angeles bucket was cheered with all the enthusiasm of the staid Staples Center courtside faithful. In the 3rd Quarter Kobe was on a fast break and got wrapped up by DevIn Harris to send him to the line. The crowd at Izod Center said: "BOOOOOOO!!!"
- Lakers had three guys in double figures for rebounds in this game: Pau Gasol 14, Lamar Odom 12, Kobe Bryant 10. I'm sure it's not the first time ever, but I don't recall ever having seen that happen before in the NBA.
- During the course of his career Phil Jackson played for the Nets, coached for the Nets, and was a broadcaster for the Nets. I rather doubt that any of these contributions to that franchise will put him in the Hall of Fame. PJ has also been the Head Coach of 10 of the last 19 NBA Championship teams, which is doubtlessly more notable.
- In the pregame rehearsal, Nets Power Forward Sean Williams, a big dude, was running backwards and wound up annihilating the chairs on the court that Marv Albert and his partner in crime, Jim Spanarkel, were sitting in, sending the two broadcasters flying. Maybe Marv will put himself on the next episode of his Albert Achievement Awards.
- I said in a previous column that Ben Wallace was the worst free throw shooter in the league. I stand corrected. Nets Forward Josh Boone is 7-for-27 on the season (25.9%) and utterly without hope.
- Lakers are now 14 wins in their last 15 games.
Kobe was game-high with 29, which was just as unsurprising as the final score. Lakers 103, Nets 84.
Well, dang, now I find myself wanting to see Marv Albert in his true native element — narrating sports follies on Letterman. Here's some rare old video of Marv exactly 20 years ago today, Dec. 21, 1989, recapping the sports hi-jinks of the year 1989.
Sunday, Dec. 20.
Portland Trail Blazers (16-12) at Miami Heat (13-11).
This felt like a pretty important game for the Blazers if they were to maintain their quest for home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. While the Lakers are running away in the Western Conference, teams like San Antonio and Houston and even Denver look more mortal than ever. The Blazers need wins on the road while they are shorthanded to set themselves up for a stretch run when they're back to full force — and that means sneaking a victory or two against hot teams like the Miami Heat.
Still: starting a road back-to-back just 21 hours after their loss in Orlando, the Blazers had a tough row to hoe. They pulled on their overalls and went to work.
Blazers opened the game red hot, with LMA and Marty both seeking to atone for their Highly Challenged performance in Orlando. Blazers nailed 7 of their first 9 attempts from the field, which was swell. Sadly — and predictably — the jumpers stopped falling. Pryz picked up 2 fouls and hit the bench and the Blazers made 4 big boo-boos that resulted in 8 Miami points and ended the 1st Quarter looking at a 25-21 deficit.
The theme for Portland opening the 2nd Quarter was DEFENSE. Blazers cranked up the intensity and the Miami lead quickly vanished. Nate tried out his new toy, inserting NBADLer Anthony Tolliver at the 9:37 mark instead of The Inferno. Young Miami star Michael Beasley waited about 2 seconds before eating him for lunch, scoring an easy 2 at the rim which put Miami back into the lead. Beasley exposed Tolliver with 3 scores in a row, ending the newbie's 69 seconds of fame in humiliating fashion. By the end of the quarter, the Blazers' defensive energy had dissipated. Wade got to the rack again and again and again and the Heat pulled out to a comfortable 9 point lead. Brandon brought them back with a couple treys and the Blazers went to the locker room trailing by just 3. Whew.
In the 3rd Quarter, the Blazers played 'em gritty, defending shooters and slowing down the pace. Blazers caught them on the scoreboard at the 7:27 mark when Andre Miller hit an AND ONE from the free throw line. The Blazers then heated up and opened up a 10 point lead, going on an impressive 18-2 run which forced forcing not 1 but 2 Miami time outs . Then things turned. At the 4:03 mark came a flagrant foul call, rewarding a dramatic Wade flop into the standard with a 4 point possession. The Heat hit and Portland petered out. Miami's 10-0 run knotted the game with a minute and a half left to play. LMA finally ended the team's scoring drought and the Blazers finished up the 2nd with a narrow lead, 71-69.
The last quarter started thrashy and the sparse South Florida crowd woke up briefly from their slumber. The Heat capitalized on the energy and put PDX on the ropes. Miami was working the ball low and Portland settling for jumpers — and you know how that usually pans out. D-Wade was on fire and Portland didn't have a comparable superstar to score the ball, if you catch my drift. But then Roy got tough and drove it for a killer AND ONE at the 4:28 mark, following less than a minute later with a long trey to tie the game at 89. Down the stretch Nate's insertion of Andre during money time proved to be a small stroke of brilliance and the Blazers managed to pull away, hitting their shots and making some stops. Brandon did what Brandon does.
It was an impressive team effort which produced this badly needed win. The Blazers went to 17-5 all time in Miami with this big victory. Blazers 102, Miami 95.
Well, whip out that Popcorn Machine GAME FLOW SUMMARY, wouldja, and let's see what we can deduce... Click that link, if you please.
Observation 1: The only double-digit lead by either team all night came in the 3rd Quarter, when Portland momentarily held a 10 point advantage. That came to a close when the Precious Dwayne Wade took a little hip check and threw himself into the standard in agony like he got smacked in the head with a crowbar. Pathetic call of a flagrant foul, that was.
Observation 2: It was an 18-5 run down the stretch that won it for Portland. Heroes were the starters: Miller, Roy, Marty, LMA, and Pryz.
Observation 3: Portland's starters rocked the house — all 5 of them were in the black in the +/-, with Marty showing an impressive Plus-24. The reserves didn't fare so well — all 4 were in the red.
Observation 4: Nice scoring from 3 Blazers: Roy with 28, LMA with 23, and Andre with 17. Do it again, guys!
Now please grab your cat (or a small dog, if you're handicapped that way), chuck 'em on your lap, and join me in watching the latest installment of THE GREATEST THING IN THE WORLD:
Well, kids, it's time to get on with the real point of this exercise — visiting the typists of Miami to find out what they think about the little ol' Blazers-Heat game...
(1)
by Michael Wallace, Miami Herald
The Heat needed far more than perfection from Quentin Richardson and frustration from Dwyane Wade.
A bit of late-game defense and an ability to finish what it started would have gone a long way Sunday night. * * *
But it was Brandon Roy's shooting touch that torched Miami (13-12) with the game on the line. * * *
The stunning rally was capped by Roy's rainbow three-pointer from the wing over Wade's out-stretched arms. When the shot fell through, it left a feeling of helplessness for the Heat, which fell to 2-3 on its six-game homestand. * * *
(2)
Postgame Breakdown: Blazers 102, Heat 95
by Michael Wallace, On the Beat: Miami Heat blog (Miami Herald)
How can a team that had just turned a corner at home play so well for 42 minutes, carry a six-point lead with five minutes left, shoot 50 percent from the field, hold a sizable edge in points in the paint and have even a diminished Dwyane Wade down the stretch let this one slip away?
How? Easy.
Brandon Roy caught whatever hot flash Quentin Richardson was dealing with Sunday. As a result, Roy led the Blazers back to snatch a victory from the Heat's grasp in a 102-95 come-from-behind clinic at AmericanAirlines Arena. * * *
(3)
Miami Heat's Shaky Homestand Forces Erik Spoelstra's Team to Regroup
by Michael Wallace, Miami Herald
The Heat certainly didn't start its six-game homestand with the level of play coach Erik Spoelstra expected. The focus now is to salvage what it can at the finish.
After losing to the Portland Trail Blazers on Sunday, Miami wraps up a two-week stretch at home by playing the Utah Jazz on Tuesday night.
After opening with blowout losses to Dallas and Memphis, which prompted some introspective team meetings, the Heat routed Toronto and Orlando. * * *
(4)
Brandon Roy Outplays Wade, as Blazers Edge Heat 102-95
by Ira Winderman, South Florida Sun Sentinel
MIAMI - In the end, the percentages got the best of the Miami Heat in Sunday's 102-95 loss to the Portland Trail Blazers at AmericanAirlines Arena.
While Portland's Brandon Roy and the Heat's Dwyane Wade each finished with 28 points, Roy's efficiency, particularly at the finish, proved decisive.
Roy not only shot 11 of 14 from the field, but seized control after the Heat took a six-point lead with 5:28 to play, scoring 11 points in the final 4:28.
"I would say four or five of those were about as well-played as you could defend him," Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said.
Wade, by contrast, shot 13 of 31, on an odd night that saw him go without a rebound for only the fourth time in his seven-season career. * * *
(5)
by Ira Winderman, South Florida Sun-Sentinel Heat Blog
Observations from Sunday's 102-95 loss to the Trail Blazers at AmericanAirlines Arena:
- Emotions seemed to get the best of Dwyane Wade late, once as he trailed a play arguing for a goaltend, later with an ill-advised 3-point attempt in the final two minutes.
- It was an awful finish for the Heat, which also managed to squander a timeout in the final 1:59.
- In the end, Brandon Roy was more than just a mere Wade play-a-like.
- All in all, a bad loss, and, now, a bad homestand, doomed to no better than 3-3. * * *
(6) Be Sure to Click Through to Read All of This One!
Steve Blake: Just Passing Through?
by Ira Winderman, South Florida Sun-Sentinel Miami Heat blog
* * *
Considering Brandon Roy also handles the ball for Portland, and that Jerryd Bayless has shown he deserves regular minutes, even if Nate McMillan doesn't necessarily view him as a point guard, Blake faces playing out the final season of his contract in a reduced role.
Unless.
Unless there is a homecoming for the Hollywood native, Miami Senior and Killian product and former teammate of Udonis Haslem.
Earning a reasonable $4 million, Blake, 29, would fit into the trade exception the Heat received last February in its trade with the Raptors. * * *
(7)
by Diego Quezada, Leaving It All on the Court (MVN)
With five minutes and 28 seconds left in the Miami Heat's game against the Portland Trail-Blazers, Dorell Wright had just made a layup to put the Heat ahead, 87-81. Now with some breathing room, Miami could pull out victorious to win its third straight game. But it didn't.
Blazers coach Nate McMillan called a timeout after Wright's layup; his team subsequently went on a run to win the game. Andre Miller made a layup of his own, and after the Heat came up empty on the other side of the court, Brandon Roy completed a three-point play. Suddenly, Miami's lead was just 87-86, and there were still more than four minutes left. * * *
This is definitely a tough loss to swallow. Miami hung in tough, but Wade could not answer Roy's fourth-quarter heroics down the stretch. The Heat can now do no better than 3-3 on its six-game home-stand. Its final game of the home-stand is Wednesday night against Utah.
(8)
posted by "GameTime 3" to Real GM Miami Heat message board
Were not going to win anything with a coach this stubborn. Spo needs to return to his tivo duties and leave the coaching to someone who can.
(9)
posted by "DWade No. 3" to Real GM Heat message board
It's a banged up Wade. I mean, the whole defense just focused on him and even in prime shape and totally healthy it's a tough task for every player to take over just like that. Look at how hard Wade had to work to just get a shot off. It's ridiciulous. I could bet a part of Wade's shooting struggles are Spoelstra fault because he makes life harder for Dwyane.
What in the world have Beasley and Magloire done to him?! Why do we waste a big time talent and even if he plays well we don't play him?! Why don't we put Magloire in if we wanna win games?! The coaching right now is so much non-sense, it is beyond me what in the world he's thinking. I could bet Riley is preparing for a comeback next season because if he wants to win titles he either does it himself or gets an experienced coach in here who can adjust to opponents and make his superstar's life easy.
Look at Kobe in L.A.. Yeah he got a great team around him but he doesn't have to work half as hard for his shots as Dwyane has to. I'm so pissed about this terrible coaching. This is why we lost a lot of games already this year!!!
(10)
posted by "Cool D" to Real GM Miami Heat message board
Down the stretch, Wade was taking every shot.
When Wade got swated by Przybilla, which was a clean block to add, he started to go in his pissy moods. Wade looked like he became distracted just because of one call.
Am not even sure it was Beasley sub, it was Chalmers on the floor, he basically just stood there, if Wade is going to dribble the ball, why even have Chalmers, if Andre is going to abuse him. * * *
* * *
Brandon Roy was playing like a badass, Is hard to defend the guy, because the guy is quick as hell in a deceptive kind of way.Also give Portland credit, they stuck around, we had a mini meltdown, and they come out winners.
That is how you win games, you simply stay in the game, and make a run in the most critical moment.Am honestly more bothered by the fans, they are the worst in the league. Some teams are able to get way more calls, because the fans are able to bully the refs into stupid calls. That is what homecourt advantage is all about, something we don't have.
(11)
posted by "Tim Hardawayy" to Real GM Miami Heat message board
The sad part is that opposing teams fans come on our board to laugh at how stupid Spo is. Is this not proof enough? Yet still you have fans that choose to be super optimists, and defend the coach no matter what goes wrong.
Roy outplayed Wade at the end, but you wanna know the difference? He had other options to go to on the court, including a young kid named LaMarcus Aldridge that was allowed to play 42 minutes and put up 23 shots.
Wade's help is named Michael Beasley, and he was given only 30 minutes and 13 shots, including benched during crunchtime.
(12)
Heat Continue to Struggle at Home on a Very Rough Sunday
by DolPhanDave, Peninsula is Mightier (SBN)
* * *
GAME NOTES
- What more can you say about Quentin Richardson and his value to this team? I hope the Heat find a way to hang on to this guy. 7-for-7 from the field, all from beyond the arc.
- I was pretty surprised when James Jones got off the bench in the 1st half. He hit his first trey, but hey...we always knew he could do that. Obviously there is more to why he can't seem to get any consistent minutes. * * *
- Since missing two games due to family issues, Jermaine O'Neal hasn't gotten his rebounding edge back. In four games he has 16 total boards (4 per game).
- While Michael Beasley did a decent job as the #1 scoring option with Wade on the bench, it was pretty apparent that LaMarcus Aldridge held the upper hand in the matchup. * * *
The Bottom Line:
1. Q-Rich was perfect, D-Wade was dinged, and Beasley was inexplicably on the bench...
2. Our team has lots and lots of trouble at home but are pretty darned good on the road. It's supposed to be the other way around. It's really weird. It probably has something to do with our lame crowd.
3. Drat you, Brandon Roy!
4. So whaddaya want for that Steve Blake guy? Does James Jones light your fire?
5. While you're at it — wanna trade coaches?
Here's something edifying...
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Comments
I'm kinda stoked brandon's back to being brandon....
he ain’t barking at the ref’s as much is he?
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out, burns out farms, and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
Head Czar of Amerika <--- Mortimer said so so there!!!
My own multicultural holiday greeting is
Happy Hanna-kwanza-mas
(I made it up myself)
" Welcome to the Bedge....where good, is never good enough"…Rudiculous
I've heard
Happy Christmahannaqkwanzika
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
I have that much influence
" Welcome to the Bedge....where good, is never good enough"…Rudiculous
by 92wastheyear on Dec 21, 2009 1:09 PM PST up reply actions
Festivus is not a happy holiday for which one would be seasonally greeted???
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
I have one ? about that #1 assist.
Why did D.Wade fall down? Answer: To make the pass look more spectacular then it actually was!
"BEER IS LIVING PROOF THAT GOD LOVES US"
- Benjamin Franklin-
I lol'ed when Mike Rice insulted Wade for falling down a lot
I was like…uh Brandon…?
Blazer Fan
by leeroyjenkins on Dec 21, 2009 10:10 AM PST up reply actions
great read. ty timbo
Portland's PG of the Future - MORE John Wall
Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.
What is their affinity with Steve Blake???
I don’t understand…. Steve is going to be with 1 of two teams next year…. Portland or Miami. And I won’t know why either one wants him….
Hometown hero.
Along with teammate Haslem, led the local high school team to a state championship. Well, actually two, but Blake and others did some cheating and one was title was stripped.
He’s the anti-Prz. They seem to hate the gorilla in his hometown of Minneapolis.
Da Zeuhl Wortz Mekanik
by NoiseMekanik on Dec 21, 2009 11:51 AM PST up reply actions
Registered at a high school while living out of district
He used a boosters address as his home address while continuing to live at home with his parents. He was banned from playing high school basketball in Florida for a year afterwards. Here
Aut disce, aut discede; manet sors tertia, caedi
by Occam's Blazer on Dec 21, 2009 2:46 PM PST up reply actions
The "assists" are pretty weak.
“Good assists” don’t occur in the following situations:
1 – When you are passing up a surefire two points for yourself [hello, LeBron James] in order to make a fancy/possible risky pass to get a surefire two points for someone else.
2 – When you are leading a 3-1 fastbreak against a defender who is overmatched anyhow and decide to attempt a fancy pass when the defender is busy ducking out of the way [that tiny guy from UCLA]
3 – When you complete a fancy pass to a wide-open guy when you could have just made a regular pass to the same wide-open guy [AI, on the fake behind-the-back]
For my money, the Iverson baseball bounce pass is among the best passes ever completed. That pass literally CREATED two points out of thin air for his team. The Wade falling out of bounds play seems fishy, and was 75% luck, but again, he’s creating points from nothing. Much thanks to Beasely for setting that up with an ill-advised behind the back.
M, period. Fresh, comma.
Can you verify?
Have you conducted or reviewed any research on the correlation between assists and wins? Has KP2 ever looked at it? You may think they’re not associated, and youstart with the hypothesis that they aren’t—but what do the tests say?
I think the point is that assists are indicative of other good things, while not being the good thing themselves
Since assists correlate to higher FG%, etc.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
Basically, you would want to do a statistical analysis that contolled for other variables.
There are some pretty standard statistical techniques to do this, to in effect get a comparison on whether the same stats with more assists leads to a better win probability/average margin.
No
Pay luxury tax for the next couple of years for a guy who won’t be able to get PT behind Nic, Martell, and Travis?
If they are going to throw in a first rounder, that’s probably worth it. We should get more if we are going to be helping them that much with their cap space.
Don’t get me wrong, I liked James Jones a lot. I think he was a huge factor in our 13 game streak. But that’s history now, we’ve moved on.
#52
The luxury tax hit would not be good, I agree.
I was basing this purely on a talent and current need basis. It probably never gets done based on the financial issues associated with it. I doubt Miami’s going to deal a first round pick WITH a player for Steve Blake.
As far as Jones getting playing time, he’s clearly behind Nic (the SF of the future). Travis and Martell? Not so sure there.
Outlaw may not be a Blazer next year as we all know. Whether or not you believe he’s in Nate and KP’s long term plans is up to you, but I suspect this is his last season in Portland.
Martell just seems lost out there sometimes. He hustles well enough, sure. But his jumper is far from consistent these days. Really, has it EVER been consistent? Say what you will about Jones’ defense, but he’s a career 40% 3 pt. shooter. He brings the outside threat that Portland simply doesn’t have right now unless Roy or Martell get hot (though Rudy getting healthy would certainly alleviate some of this issue, again making Martell a kind of useless addition.)
Martell and Jones appear to be a wash, but I think Jones is the better long term fit for this team. Again, it’ll likely never happen. I just don’t think Martell or Travis belong on the future Blazers roster.
Yes! Yes! In the face!
Martell is rusty
Consistent jumper? Maybe not. Doesn’t have to be if he’s our backup SF, just explosive enough to keep people scared and keep the floor spread. He’s still very young.
James knew Martell was going to be better than him and beat him out. He said so, that Martell was the future. That’s why he left — no one knew about Nic yet. If James had thought he was going to be the starter, he’d have stayed, to play on a probable contender.
Miami really, really would like to clear the cap space. James Jones isn’t giving them anything. Blake would be helpful to them this year, he’d help spread the floor for Wade, and give them cap space in the summer. He’d be more valuable to them than to us on the court, and his expiring contract would be more valuable as well.
Miami would do a deal like this simply to get rid of Jones and his contract. They would have to compensate us for that. The pick might not be all that valuable, they’ll pick around 18. If I’m KP, I’m driving a hard bargain on this one, or trying to get Haslem out of them rather than Jones.
#52
oooooooooooh......I like Haslem.
There’s not much chance of them parting with him, but if you can get that throw in, more power to you!
Doesn’t Blake have to make buckets or be some kind of an offensive threat to spread the floor? If that was happening now, he wouldn’t be in trade rumors.
Of course James said that. What was he supposed to say? “These guys are stupid for letting me go. That Webster kid’s never gonna amount to anything.” It wouldn’t have mattered if he did since he was gone anyway, but I imagine he wasn’t gonna say anything but nice thoughts regardless.
I’ll give you that Martell probably is rusty. And sure he is younger than other players. But how long are we really willing to give him? It wouldn’t be so glaring if Batum wasn’t hurt and Webster wasn’t getting the lion’s share of the minutes at SF.
Yes! Yes! In the face!
James said that when he first came to Portland
And we didn’t let him go, he opted out of the last year of his contract, was UFA, and went to Miami.
If Blake goes home, he makes 40% on 3s.
How long are we willing to give Martell? Well, a couple more years, anyway, based on his contract. If he is performing at a lower level than his contract justifies, he’ll be hard to trade. If he isn’t, he’ll be a pretty decent backup.
Personally, I’ve seen enough to be quite content with Martell as our backup SF. He hustles, attacks the glass, plays decent defense, and is a guy that has the potential to come in and light you up. On top of that, his personality is great, and he doesn’t mind coming off the bench. You would like more consistency in a starter, but it really isn’t about this year anymore, so I’m looking to the future.
If Martell becomes really consistent in his shooting and continues to improve his defense, he could even challenge Nic for the starting spot. If he doesn’t, he’s still a pretty solid backup. I don’t expect him to be moved unless he’s a necessary part of a big time trade.
#52
A couple of thoughts....
Love the comment by the Heat fan…."Why don’t we put Magloire in if we wanna win games?! "….haven’t they seen him play? Jeesh….
Also….regarding assists….it;s the one stat that really stands for ball movement. When you read that a team had 28 assists on 35 shots, you know that team was moving the ball and not stagnant. When thay have 7 assists on about 90 shots (Yes Portland, I’m looking at the Orlando game), you know there was offensive stagnation and little ball movement.
"I'm a man, but I can change.....if I have to......I guess." - Red Green
I wonder how much meaning an "assist" stat would have if
You counted hockey assists, which are way cool to watch and which really make the offense flow, and if you gave an assist for shots which caught iron but didn’t go in, or passes which resulted in shooting fouls?
You should probably give them some other name, but it seems like those numbers might actually tell you something useful about how people are playing.
i've thought about that too
I could be wrong, but I think it was Phil Jackson who said that sometimes it’s not the pass directly before the bucket, but the pass before that, because the first pass throws the defense off balance, and the second one goes for the kill.
by Chadillac5000 on Dec 22, 2009 12:27 AM PST up reply actions
Just one comment about assists
These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others. -Groucho Marx
The reason you never hear about teams "out-assisting"
each other is because it’s not a zero sum game, like say, rebounding. There are only a finite number of rebounds to go around in a game, and so both teams are in direct competition to maximize their share of those rebounds, so one team out-rebounding another indicates that they’ve “beaten” the other team in one aspect of the game (with the usual caveats about some teams missing more shots and the ease of defensive rebounding).
With assists, on the other hand, there’s nothing stopping both teams from racking up as many assists as there are made baskets. You could just as easily have each team finish with 30 assists or each team finish with 10 assists. That simply isn’t possible with rebounding. The idea that it’s never mentioned in game analysis is just wrong, though. Dwyer often refers to assist numbers as a way of measuring how well an offense was flowing. In general, most teams don’t have many players who can generate their own decent looks, so FGs made within the flow of the offense will presumably be assisted, since the offense is trying to get high percentage looks for guys unable to do it on their own.
The issue about it, though, is more on an individual level. Sure, how much they matter on a team level may be up for debate, but, while there are awful inconsistencies in how assists are credited, without them, it’d be just one more black spot in statistics that we’d be leaving up to +/- or on/off court stats to try and quantify. For example, look at the Suns. We can check out Steve Nash’s assists per game and use that as a partial measure of how much he helps the offense. Without that, we’re left with looking at on/off court splits and seeing that the Suns shoot 4% eFG% better with Steve Nash and going from there to say that “well, the Suns offense is more efficient with him on the court, but we can’t really say why”, so while they may not be perfect, at least they’re more illuminating than that alternative.
#52
Timbo
I love these recaps. I’ve come to look forward to them as much as Dave’s recaps and Ben’s inside the locker room stuff and even more than what Oregonlive puts out. I would lobby for you to be the new Truehoop rep in a heartbeat. Great, great stuff and please keep them coming.
"One of the bright spots of the young season has been rookie point guard Jonny Flynn, whose name sounds like he should be the lead character in a Broadway Musical. "What are you doing here, Jonny Flynn?" "Why I'm here to court trouble, and woo a girl, and build the most fantastical contraption the world has ever seen!" -- Dave, Game 7 Blazers versus Timberwolves preview
Bad news for L*ker fans is good news for Blazer fans
http://blogs.hoopshype.com/blogs/lazenby/2009/12/21/what-jerry-buss-didnt-say/
As one Jeanie [Buss] confidant explains, Jerry Buss is a misogynist who refuses to accept the idea that his daughter might ascend to run the franchise that he has owned for 30 years.
Buss made up his mind long ago that he was going to turn the franchise over to [his son] Jim. As Jerry West once explained of the team owner, "Once Jerry Buss makes up his mind, he normally doesn’t change it."
Still, Jim Buss has been credited with making a series of moves five years ago that cost the franchise dearly, namely pushing for the firing of Jackson and the hiring of Rudy Tomjanovich as coach.
Jeanie’s allies insist that Jim Buss made that move without so much as consulting with anyone else, and Tomjanovich’s short tenure cost the team millions.
It’s no wonder that Jeanie and Phil are uneasy about trying to keep things headed in the right direction with Jim Buss in power.
Merry Christmas, Portland. The waters may be parting for WC supremacy, once Greg gets his knee back in proper working condition
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I agree with your first statement, Timbo.
The first year that Nash won the MVP, it truly should have gone to Shaq.
I'm all for Merry Christmas for the poll option.
My favorite teams are the Blazers and any team that is playing the Lakers.
by OCBlazerFan1 on Dec 21, 2009 7:48 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
nice writing/compilation here, Timbo
I do have to respond to the assist thing, though.
but,
I’ve always thought that the assist is the most over-rated statistic in basketball.Think about it — when’s the last time you heard a post-game expert say, “Portland won this game because they out-assisted Denver 19 to 12”?
How can it be an overrated statistic if none of the experts credit it for wins?
I agree that in isolation, the stat can’t tell you everything, but it’s still important.
Royster’s explanation is more comprehensive and eloquent than mine will be, but I’ll echo it briefly — not only does an assist mean at least two points on the board, it indicates that the offense is flowing and that people are getting open and making it count (as opposed to standing around and watching the ballhandler). While an offense can work without a ton of assists, it’s less likely. Scorers that are dishing it out are less predictable and harder to guard. A player like Brandon Roy is much more potent and dangerous when he’s dropping dimes as well as finishing off the dribble. It shows that he’s able to pass out of the double-team, and makes the defense rethink how to approach him and the rest of our team. I’m sure I’m preaching to the choir on this, though, which is why your comment kind of puzzles me.
Also, as your video illustrates — assists are beautiful to watch.
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