Current thoughts...

by Sir.Ludo on Dec 16, 2009 3:38 AM PST

So even though this season looks rocky, I think the next season looks very bright. All the players who are injured at the moment are looking to make a good recovery, or at least I have yet to hear of any bad news *knocks on wood*.

Ideally this is what I would hope for next year...

Starters: Roy, Rudy/(open spot), Batum, Oden, Aldridge

Backup: Bayless, Cunningham, Pryzbilla, and then two/(one) open spot(s).

The open spots would be a guard (Blake/Miller/Mills or trade) and a foward (Webster/Outlaw/Howard/Pendergraph or trade). I'm don't completely understand the details of how trading works but it seems like between those seven guys we could get out two guys to make our second unit even more potent. Perhaps we don't even need to trade as I think that either Miller or Blake could stay and if Outlaw isn't trying to go, he would be very useful. I haven't seen Mills or Pendergraph much to know their potential.

Obviously there would be some competition for minutes, particularly with starters Rudy and Batum and the two undecided spots in the second unit. It would be worth considering moving Rudy to second unit to give him more possessions on the ball (instead of sharing between the 3 stars..) The first unit would have a good size advantage in almost every position. I think Bayless and Cunningham would make a great pair to head the second units offense, with Bayless attacking the basket and possibly dumping to Cunningham for the jump or Pryz for the dunk. Though Bayless' seems a bit of a "one trick pony" ATM, as teams realize his ability to create opportunity's for himself they will have to defend him better and give him the chance to help make plays for the other players and thus expand his game (least I can hope this will happen :D). This set up we also have two players in each rotation (at least) who can make their own shot. We have pretty good defense in both though maybe the second unit could use some more.

Anyways, I suppose this is because I'm excited about tonights game. Was a little too close for comfort but saw some things that made me think the future looks good. Roy's stats were what I dream he would do (and know he can consistently... 25,5,10 ... Love it!) and of course the Inferno :P. Honestly though I think the Blazers have a good future in the cards we are currently holding. We need to buckle down and weather this season and hope to come out of it as injury free as possible. If we can stay healthy I believe in a championship game in at least 2-3 years with this basic roster.

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Comments

We do not have time for Bayless to develop

The Nets have all kinds of time. My trade will fix the team for good.

Blazers get Harris, Nets get Bayless and Miller – I’d even throw in a draft pick to sweeten it.

Trade Works

by tominhawaii on Dec 16, 2009 5:03 AM PST reply actions

that would be sweet

too bad NJ would be hard pressed to make that deal. It doesn’t help them clear any more cap room, and the Blazers get the better talent out of the deal.

Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?

by usmcr3049 on Dec 16, 2009 8:18 AM PST up reply actions

I heard Bayless will be better than Harris, Williams, and Paul

But not until after Miller’s contract expires and not for the Blazers. Blazers can’t develop point guards.

by tominhawaii on Dec 16, 2009 8:21 AM PST up reply actions

I think you are overrating Harris

Harris was Bayless during the time he was in Dallas. Miller, a first round pick, and Bayless> than Harris.

#52

by KINGofMACct on Dec 16, 2009 1:00 PM PST up reply actions

Uh....no.

52 + 88 = 140% better team.

by xedubx on Dec 16, 2009 3:02 PM PST up reply actions

The first round pick I had in mind

turned out to be John Wall.

#52

by KINGofMACct on Dec 16, 2009 3:39 PM PST up reply actions

I meant "Uh...no" to Harris was Bayless during his stay in Dallas comment

Even though I like B-Rex, Harris was much, much more than Rex. I’d take the time to explain, but keep it short: better D, better handle, better vision, better shooting…so pretty much better everything.

52 + 88 = 140% better team.

by xedubx on Dec 16, 2009 4:06 PM PST up reply actions

Thanks for the explanation

My point was that Harris was not blossoming in Dallas. It was not until he got to NJ that he really broke out. From what I remember, Harris showed flashes in Dallas. We see flashes with Jerryd now—will he play like last night consistently? If so, with normal improvement, he is going to be a very good player. If not, ….

#52

by KINGofMACct on Dec 16, 2009 4:50 PM PST up reply actions

Bayless might be as good as Harris was when he was with Dallas

Harris had an up and down rookie year, and good second year where he started a few games, played 23 mins per game and scored 10 per contest. Then busted out in the playoffs avg 24 mins, 48% shooting, and 9.5 ppg for a team that went all the way to the NBA finals. His third year, he started 61 games for the team with the best record in the NBA, avg 49%shooting, 10ppg, 1.2steals, 3.7 asts, and 2.5 rebs per game. From there on he became the player he is today, which is obviously much better than Bayless.

Bayless might continue to improve and get to this level next year if Coach Nate really commits to giving Bayless time to play.

Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?

by usmcr3049 on Dec 16, 2009 9:27 PM PST up reply actions

I think this is debatable

Bayless has a higher eFG%, TS%, a higher PER and a better Defensive Rating.

I am not an expert on Harris, but the stats don’t seem to obviously sup0port your contention.

by upper left corner on Dec 16, 2009 5:17 PM PST up reply actions

I'd also contend that you are operating with a very small sample size in Jerryd's case

which makes the confidence interval for his stats rather huge. As a bit of a statistician myself, you don’t really want to draw any conclusions based upon his stats, especially something that pretty much goes against all good conventions of statistical analysis such as PER and defensive ratings. Also, as any good statistician will tell you, the stats are used to back up a hypothesis along with other evidence rather than used alone to draw conjectures.

The higher eFG% and TS% makes sense given the type of player Bayless is and the role Harris was to play with Dallas, which is more of a facilitator/floor spacer/3rd or 4th option on offense. But, Rex is not a better player, as of current, compared to Harris as a Maverick.

52 + 88 = 140% better team.

by xedubx on Dec 16, 2009 6:28 PM PST up reply actions

I understand your general point

I don’t understand why you lump Defensive Ratings in with PER. PER may be limited and you may argue with the relative weighting of the various measures, but it is a pretty broadly based individual stat which shouldn’t be subject to uncontrolled variables like so many of the advanced stats.

by upper left corner on Dec 18, 2009 2:33 AM PST up reply actions