"The Blunder" and the Sched Ahead for 12/14/09, Week Eight

Gather round, children, and I'll tell you a story.  I need to warn you, though, it's a sad story, one in which the bad guys get away with some very bad things.

Long ago, in a land far away, there was a basketball team.  Their fans loved them, and neighboring fans hated them, which is as it should be.  They won some games, they lost some games.  They even won a championship once.

One day, there was a very rich and evil man, who had some very rich and evil friends, and they decided to kidnap this team, and take it away to their home.  But as rich and evil people do, they didn't use guns to steal the team, they used lawyers and lots of money and lied about "good faith efforts" and all that stuff.  If you don't understand how that works, it's ok.  I hope you'll never be rich and evil (we'd settle for rich and good, though, wouldn't we?), so you won't need to know about that stuff.

Anyway, it worked.  They stole the team, but in their hurry to get it away from town, they forgot to take the team name with them.  

This created a problem for these rich and evil men, though.  The team used to be called the Supersonics, which is a kind of jet airplane which goes really, really fast.  These men thought it was good that they used to be called the Supersonics, because they made the team go off to their own city really fast.  But now, what would they call their new team, the one they had stolen?

They racked their brains for a solution, and one day, they were sitting around the table, and one of them said, "Hey, if a Supersonic is flying away from Seattle really fast on its way to Oklahoma, doesn't it make a loud noise in the sky?"  The others said, "That's it!  We'll call our team that loud noise in the sky!"

Now, children, you should know that the loud noise in the sky is called a sonic boom.  But the rich and evil men apparently didn't know that there was more than one kind of loud noise in the sky -- and they called their team the "Blunder".

This Sched Ahead edition, for the first time, includes a team from OKC, hereafter known as the "Blunder", as a potential playoff contender. 

SUMMARY INFO

This weekly schedule analysis is based on four categories of games:

1. Home games against sub .500 teams.  Cream Puff Home.
2. Home games against winning teams (I'm including teams right at .500 in this category).  Jawbreaker Home.
3. Road games at losing teams.  Banana Peel Road.
4. Road games at winning teams.  Rocky Road.

A general formula for success in the NBA is to win almost all of Cat 1 (Cream Puff Home), a majority of Cat 2 (Jawbreaker Home) and Cat 3 (Banana Peel Road), and win some in Cat 4 (Rocky Road).  The contenders may win more than half of their Cat 4 games.

Back to Backs (hereafter BtoB) are also tracked so as to provide further data on schedule difficulty.

Last week's update

CHANGES THIS WEEK

Milwaukee is back up to .500, so their games are recategorized.   

COMMENTS ON THE WEEK

Portland (1-3), splitting two Cat 3 Banana Peels (W at IND, L at the Knicks who were on a BtoB) and lost to Cat 4 Rocky Roads, at CLE and MIL (BtoB).  Not a good week.

Dallas (3-0) got back on track, with a Cat 2 home win (Phoenix), a Cat 4 Rocky Road at Miami, and a Cat 1 Cream Puff at home against Charlotte (both teams BtoB).

Denver (2-2) was not stellar, winning only one (@Philly) of three Banana Peels, losing at Charlotte (BtoB) and Detroit (Pistons were BtoB), then somewhat rescuing the week by closing it out with a Cat 2 Jawbreaker home win against Phoenix (who was on a BtoB).  Not a very good week, but not horrible. 

Houston (2-1) was solid, winning a tough Cat 2 at home against Cleveland (Cavs on a BtoB), then getting a Banana Peel Split on the road with a win at Philly and a loss at Toronto. 

L.A.  (2-1) got two more home wins (Cat 2 Utah, Cat 1 Cream Puff Minnesota) before finally hitting the road, and immediately taking a loss at Utah in a back to back.  They are 15-2 at home and 3-2 on the road.  L@ker fans like to think they are as good on the road as at home.  If so, they'll win their next 12 road games.  Don't hold your breath -- though the competition in the next 4 isn't brutal.

N.O. (2-1) showed they know how to blow a good week.  They started well, winning a Cream Puff at home against the Kings, then a Banana Peel at Minnesota (both teams BtoB), before ruining it with a Cream Puff home loss to NY.  The Knicks are playing very well recently, it isn't just Portland and N.O. that have fallen to them in the last couple of weeks, but you don't want to lose at home to a team like that. 

The Blunder (2-1) had a decent week, winning a Cat 1 Cream Puff at home against the Warriors and a dangerous Cat 3 Banana Peel at Memphis, then dropping a Cat 2 Jawbreaker against the Cavs.

Phoenix (1-2) had their second straight losing week, and again, it is hard to blame them.  They had a Jawbreaker (Cat 2) sandwich, with a nice home win against Orlando surrounded by two tough Cat 4 road losses to the D Team (Dallas and Denver).  The Denver loss was on a back to back.  With a week like that, you shrug, and say, "What did you expect?" 

S.A. (3-1) had a pretty good week, opening with a Rocky Road loss at Utah, but closing with three wins, two Cat 1 Cream Puffs (Sacramento and Charlotte) and a Cat 3 Banana Peel at the Clippers.   

Utah (3-1) had a really good week, losing one Cat 4 Rocky Road at LA, but winning three very tough Cat 2s at home -- San Antonio, Orlando (BtoB), and the L@kers (who were on a BtoB).  Very nice week.  People who wrote them off after the first three weeks obviously didn't know what they were talking about.  They aren't going to be dominant, but they are a very solid team.

New Orleans (at home) and Houston each took a loss to losing teams, Portland and Denver each took two. 

Helped themselves:  Dallas, S.A., Utah.

Did OK: Houston, L.A., Blunder, Phoenix. 

Hurt themselves:  Portland, Denver, N.O.

The tables:

Cat 4 -- Rocky Road

Dallas (at Miami) got the only Cat 4 win of the week.  Notice that Phoenix only has 11 of these toughest games left, LA has 18.  In less than two weeks, we'll have cleared four of these, and hopefully have picked up at least one win of the four.  San Antonio does need to get their act together, they have a lot of hard games left. 

Cat 3 -- Banana Peel Road 

This category is also fairly balanced in remaining games, with again L.A. and S.A. having the most remaining.  Those two teams have a lot of road time left.

Cat 2 -- Jawbreaker Home

Phoenix still has a lot of tough home games left.  Here's where the "Blunder" don't look so hot, they haven't held home court well against good teams.  Phoenix hasn't even had to try home games against good teams yet.  Utah won all three of their games in this category this week.

Cat 1 -- Cream Puff Home

The Hornets were the only team with a Cream Puff loss this week.  Note that L.A. has played 41% (!!!) of their games as home games against losing teams.  Houston is the other outlier -- they've got a lot of easy games left.

All Home Games

N.O. and OKC were the only teams to lose a home game this week..  Little change on the schedule imbalances this week, L.A. has played the most home games and Phoenix and Houston the fewest.

All Away Games

Before this week, Western playoff contenders overall were 47-46 in road games.  That record is now 54-57 -- a poor 7-11 for the week.  L.A. is finally on the road, having just lost the first of a five game trip.  Phoenix is almost entirely at home for the next month.

All Games Against Winning Teams

This is fairly balanced as far as games ahead against winning teams, very little difference between N.O./Denver at one end of the spectrum and Portland/Houston at the other end.  The differences come in home/road breakdowns of those games. 

All Games Against Losing Teams

Notice that Dallas, Denver, and N.O. have lost four games against losing teams, L.A. none.   

Back to Back Games Remaining

This factor is to the advantage of N.O., and disadvantage of Houston and L.A.  Of remaining back to backs, the following are the number of games where the other team is on a back to back as well: 

Net, the games where only the Western contender in question is on a back to back:

Phoenix now has only five games remaining where they are on a back to back and the other team isn't -- and none are Cat 4s.  L.A. has 15, but only five are against winning teams.  

Now, games where we are not on a back to back, but our opponent is:

Still a big advantage for Denver here -- most of their difficult home opponents will be tired.  We'll not be getting any help on our road games the rest of the way.  

The Coming Week

1. Portland.  Crisis time.  A winnable Cat 1 Cream Puff against Sacramento, a much tougher Cat 2 against Phoenix, then on the road for a brutal 4 in 5 nights, all Rocky Road Cat 4s, starting this weekend at Orlando and Miami. Two wins this week and we will come home for a four game stand with a winning record and the worst stretch of the schedule behind us.  Less than two wins and KP may be looking to make a move (he might be anyway, of course).
2. Dallas.  Four winnable games, perhaps none of them easy.  They start with a Cat 1 against the Hornets (who keep edging towards .500), then a Cat 4 Rocky Road at OKC, followed by two Cat 2s at home against Houston and Cleveland. 
3. Denver.  They start with two Cat 2 Jawbreakers at home (OKC and Houston).  These two games wrap up a strange stretch where the Nuggets face 4 straight opponents who are on the second of a back to back.  Then, they go out on the road with two Cat 3 Banana Peels at New Orleans and Memphis.
4. Houston.  Four in five nights, though two of the four are at home.  They start with a Cat 1 Cream Puff at home vs. Detroit, then a Rocky Road BtoB at Denver, then another Cat 4 at Dallas, and finally a Cat 2 at home to OKC (both teams on a BtoB). 
5. L.A.  Four in six nights.  Open at Chicago, then a back to back at Milwaukee, then two nights off before playing at N.J. (Nets will be on a BtoB), and finally a back to back at Detroit.  The Bucks are a Cat 4, the others are all Cat 3. 
6. N.O.  After dropping a home game to the Knicks that would have put them at .500, the Hornets need to get some wins, and they have one in each category this week.  They start with the toughest first, a Cat 4 Rocky Road at Dallas, then follow with a Cat 1 Cream Puff against Detroit (Pistons will be on a BtoB).  Next is a testing Cat 2 against Denver, and they close the week with a Cat 3 Banana Peel at Toronto.  Two wins needed, minimum. 
7. The "Blunder".  Not an easy week for them.  They start and end with Cat 4 Rocky Road games, both on a BtoB, starting at Denver and ending at Houston (who will also be on a BtoB).  In between, they are at home for a Cat 2 against Dallas and a Cat 1 against Detroit.  Two wins would make a solid week. 
8. Phoenix.  The Suns are finally moving into the soft part of their schedule, but it doesn't get really easy quite yet.  They host the Spurs for a Cat 2 Jawbreaker, then travel to Portland for a Cat 4 Rocky Road.  They close at home with a Cat 1 Cream Puff against the Wizards, who will be on a BtoB.
9. S.A.  They start with a tough Cat 4 at Phoenix, then go BtoB to Golden State (Cat 3 Banana Peel).  Then it is home for a Cat 1 Cream Puff against Indiana, who will be on a BtoB.   
10. Utah.  The Jazz try to keep their momentum going, starting with a Cat 1 Cream Puff at home against Minnesota (looking for payback after losing at Minnesota recently).  Then, they start a testing five game trip with a Banana Peel at N.J. (Nets will be on a BtoB), followed by two in two nights at Atlanta (Cat 4) and Charlotte (Cat 3).   

Time for some home wins.  Sacramento is no pushover this year, but you have to beat teams like that in Portland.  Two wins this week and we keep ourselves in the hunt a little longer, as we look longingly for the Euro cavalry (Rudy and Nic) to ride over the hill to our rescue.  Drop these games, and if KP hasn't been thinking about a move, he probably will be.

Coming next week, the jscot Silly Sched Projections (c).