Kevin Durant 2nd in league in adjusted +/-
by loyal_blazer on Dec 13, 2009 6:48 PM PST
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PrintKevin Durant may have the greatest plus/minus improvement in NBA history. He was one of the very worst players in the league by that measure last season, and now he's second best. Only Dirk Nowitzki rates better in Wayne Winston's adjusted plus/minus. As of today, Durant's Thunder are giving up 11.5 fewer points per hundred possessions when he's on the floor. And they're scoring 13.75 more. That's unbelievable. (Interestingly, the next best player in the NBA, according to this early-season measure, is Marc Gasol. Then LeBron James and Luol Deng. If those numbers seem a little funny ... it's early yet. Plus/minus means a lot more with bigger samples.)
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I am so tired of the KD thing
Oden is hurt and out for the year and we are still comparing them using hindsight? It is my understanding that they are friends and probably do not appreciate this stuff a whole lot.
I think it has been shown now that they are BOTH going to be very good players if they are fortunate enough to stay healthy. There is no individual one on one competition between them. Championships will tell the rest of the story. Will either one of them ever win a title? Will one of them win multiple titles? What moves will management make to surround them with players who will fill in the holes in their games? What about their coaches and the game plans?
Again, the NBA is not really a one on one league even though it is marketed that way many times. Teams win, and even more so, well built and well coached teams win championships. Think about how long KG was in Minnesota—KD needs help and good fortune just like Greg or anyone else does.
#52
Just for a second
Kevin Durant +/- per 100 possessions = +11.7
Sergio Rodriguez +/- per 100 possessions = +13.8
by as11osu on Dec 13, 2009 7:22 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Well, +/- has more static than most advanced metrics -- while PER and WoW tend to normalize -- ...
so it’ll be interesting to see if Kevin Durant can extend this supposed defensive improvement for a long period of time. I doubt he’ll be able to do it, but that’s just my opinion.
Dear Paul Allen:
Fire Kevin Pritchard & hire Dennis Lindsey.
Fire Nate McMillan & hire Jeff Van Gundy.
Sincerely,
AK1984
You're still banging that KD is bad on defense drum?
Just FYI, after LeBron went off for like 12 points in like 2 minutes, KD started covering him. Didn’t exactly shut him down but definitely slowed him, and LBJ started distributing more and only scored a couple of times the rest of the way while KD was on him.
by howlingfantods on Dec 14, 2009 12:42 PM PST up reply actions
Durant does stink out loud on defense
there’s a reason Sef plays over Harden. Sef and Westbrook are essential to any defense that includes Durant as one of it’s wing defenders. He’s pitiful on that end of the court.
yeah.... that's why brooks used him to cool LBJ
when LBJ was scorching hot? And that’s why KD succeeded where Thabo and Harden were getting killed?
Folks who claim that Durant’s terrible on defense are just announcing that they haven’t watched OKC much this season. Get league pass and watch a dozen or so games or so and then we’ll talk, k?
by howlingfantods on Dec 14, 2009 1:42 PM PST up reply actions
I've seen Durant so many times, including this year....
one 2 minute stint where LBJ gets assists instead of points is supposed to overturn 1 year watching Durant at Texas and 2 years watching him in the NBA? C’mon. He is forced to play with two of the leagues elite wing defenders because he’s an awful defender. It’s not a knock on him, he’s just not built for it. Add some weight and play him at the 4 eventually, we’ll talk.
It's nice when we're on the same page.
Regarding Kevin Durant ever putting on weight, I believe his ectomorphic somatotype makes him incapable of adding extra bulk to his slight frame. That, in conjuction with Durant’s inferior athleticism — which is different than fluidity on offense, as he’s got that in spades — will always cause him trouble on the defensive end.
Dear Paul Allen:
Fire Kevin Pritchard & hire Dennis Lindsey.
Fire Nate McMillan & hire Jeff Van Gundy.
Sincerely,
AK1984
Um, yes. When LBJ is getting a dozen points in 2 minutes,
forcing him into giving up the rock is exactly what you want your defender to be doing. Teams often run multiple defenders at guys like LBJ and Kobe and Roy when they’re getting going just to get them to pass instead of shoot, so if you can do that with one guy instead of multiples even when the guy is red hot, that’s success.
His coaches and teammates know his game better than you, yeah? Why do you think they switched this awful defender on to LBJ when LBJ desperately needed to be cooled instead of the elite defenders he plays with if they think that he’s so terrible defensively?
by howlingfantods on Dec 14, 2009 3:35 PM PST up reply actions
Everytime Nate sticks Blake on CP3
I’ll remember Blake is the best defender we have, because he’s the one that actually knows his players games. Coaches do silly things, and occasionally silly things work. Sometimes Zach Randolph blocks shots. Sometimes Durant gets LBJ to pass (is that really an accomplishment?), that doesn’t change the 3 years and 1 month of being one of the worst defenders at his position.
Ok, so I say that Durant has gone
from pretty poor his first season, somewhat below average his second season, to a little better than average this season. I observe that his 82games +/- defensive stats, opp PER and other stats seem to indicate improvement, although I personally find those stats useless. On BBR, you can see the same in Def Rating and DWS.
If you follow both national press/blogger chatter and local press/blogger coverage, you’ll hear the same things about significant year over year improvement on the defensive end. To concretize these abstracts, I offer a very recent example of his coaches switching one of those players you call an elite defender in Thabo off of LBJ and switching Durant on, and Durant doing a creditable job in slowing LBJ down when Thabo was getting torched.
And in response to all this, you offer, what exactly? Your opinion backed by nothing other than bald assertions? Got anything else?
by howlingfantods on Dec 14, 2009 5:13 PM PST up reply actions
The Thabo switch means little to me
because he, like all but 1 other player in the league lacks the tools to shut LBJ down. What may have happened at that point with LBJ passing, in one game, is pretty close to inconsequential.
The difference in Durant’s plus minus this year can be directly correlated with Sef being used exclusively as the other starter. Last year 13% of Durant’s minutes came alongside Sef, this year 84% of his minutes come next to Sef. The turnaround for Durant’s defensive +/- is almost completely Sef dependent.
That's pretty magical that Thabo manages a -9.1
while Durant has a +11.6 +/- given your explanation then. Hm, in fact, if you just take the defensive numbers, the on/off for durant is -6.9 (negative is good) and +8.7 for Thabo (positive is bad).
Next?
by howlingfantods on Dec 14, 2009 6:04 PM PST up reply actions
I could've sworn we were talking about defense.
The 11 points offensively Sef costs his team is a different story.
Uh, ok
So Thabo’s opposing points per 100 nets at -0.4. Durant’s is -10.5. Explain how this nets out as all Thabo again?
by howlingfantods on Dec 14, 2009 10:12 PM PST up reply actions
http://www.orangepower.com/archive/index.php/t-80959.html
Durant hasn’t defended the opposing teams first or second best wing player almost the entire year. Crediting him for defense is like us crediting Roy when Oden or Przy is dominating inside. He may be on the court, but his impact on the defensive end, is at best inconsequential.
Durant doesn't defend the first *or*
second best wing player? So who does he defend?
Of course he defends the less threatening opposing wing. Same as Roy, same as LBJ, same as Kobe, same as pretty much every star wing who’s ever played the game. Even MJ, great a defender as he was, got the easier cover and Pippen took the harder cover, for the simple reason that you don’t want your star having to use up so much energy on both ends.
by howlingfantods on Dec 14, 2009 10:16 PM PST up reply actions
and the blake example is a very poor one.
I recall coach being desperate enough to switch Batum on opposing point guards when we were getting abused at times last season. It wasn’t that coach thinks blake is a great defender; it’s that he didn’t think sergio or jaybay year 1 was any better, and I can’t exactly disagree with that.
This season, the rotations have been determined much more by offensive considerations than defensive. Of course, that’s almost always true with Nate, but that’s the subject of a different rant.
by howlingfantods on Dec 14, 2009 5:21 PM PST up reply actions
Oden and this idea of Injury prone.
I understand why people say he’s injury prone but I must point out that I think a few things have been a fluke. Two of his injuries were things that happen to a lot of NBA players. I’m talking about his ankle injury in his first game last year. If I remember correctly he landed on someone’s foot and tweaked the ankle. Then later in the year he had a Knee on Knee collision with magettee and suffered a chiped bone on his knee cap. I don’t look at those injuries as a flaw in his body. Also, even though the team keeps saying that his patella was fine I still think the blow from magettee could of had some effect on the petalla. Anyway his biggest issue was the microfracture surgery and the other stuff just seems to be stuff. Also, what happens if Durant blows out a knee or has some illness. Does that all of a sudden make anything different? I don’t think we can look back.
When on the court it's been close.
Oden career PER = 19.8
Durant career PER = 19.2
Injuries are really the only difference so far. You give Oden 3 healthy years, I’m all aboard train GO. If Durant had gone Livingston, we’d be singing the opposite tune. People don’t give luck it’s proper respect in this day and age. I’d rather be lucky than good.
How can you possibly compare the stats of a Center with a PF?!?!?
PER is garbage…
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
Excuse me SMALL FORWARD.
A BIG with a WING.
Apples and turnips.
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
What's the area of the game that PER least accounts for?
You’ve got a couple. +/-, which overall, Oden has been slightly better at, and defense, which Oden has been very good at, while Durant might be one of the worst wing defenders in the entire league. PER is a pretty fair comparison overall between the two. Usage and rebounding are slightly exaggerated, but that’s pretty much a push between these two.
PER will almost always give the edge to Kevin Durant, while WoW will almost always give ...
the edge to a healthy Greg Oden. +/- metrics — whether it’s raw, adjusted, net points (scored or allowed) per 100 possessions, et cetera — usually would lean in Oden’s favor, but this season is an odd exception for Durant. I expect that Durant’s stunningly high +/- numbers thus far this season are indicative of a small sample size, though, so they should decrease substantially — particularly on defense — as the season progresses.
Dear Paul Allen:
Fire Kevin Pritchard & hire Dennis Lindsey.
Fire Nate McMillan & hire Jeff Van Gundy.
Sincerely,
AK1984
Yeah, there was never a question Durant would be good
He simply is not a draft flop. NEITHER IS ODEN.
The Chief difference – The Sonics built there team around him. Oden came in as a cog in a team being built around Roy.
Timing is amazing:
The scope that turned into a microfracture gave us another year of Roy evolving and becoming a legitimate All-Star.
Oden was just starting to hone it when that chipped knee blew apart. But we were still playing as Roy and Friends… and loosing as our shooters went hot/cold. Maybe it was time for a reconsideration of who to build our offense (defense was already diverted to GO, hence half the fouls) around. But, we didn’t get there and if that knee was a time bomb – not saying he’ll ever be injured again and praying he makes a full recovery – its probably good we kept trying to solve the Roy and Friends enigma.
Miller and Fernandez were practicing with Roy, Web and Aldridge when Coach ruptured his achilles (@ that time, maybe not exact time). Nothing really materialized in the interim.
Now Fernandez is out as well. IMO about time, hopefully this surgery helps him out and allows him back in his flow easier.
Now Coach has not only what to do w/ Miller (if no trade news this week…) on his plate, but what will hopefully be a trump card in a decimated season, Bayless will rise!
by Chief Play Good Play Hard on Dec 13, 2009 8:47 PM PST reply actions
Yes, KD is very good. Everyone knew he would be.
But I LOVE Gregory Wayne Oden. He is a Blazer. He is our center. He has been a Blazer for over 2 years now. I have loved watching him grow as a person and as a player. I won’t even look back as to what could / should have happened because it’s pointless. Greg is our player, and he is a Blazer. End of story.
#52
Oden fan for life
If they could both stay on the court, then you could have this argument
But Greg can’t. Game over. KD wins.
And let’s not pretend there weren’t whispers about Greg’s health pre-draft.
I’m not saying I’d have picked Durant but with the benefit of hindsight that was clearly the correct pick.
Blazer Fan
Z-bo is an elite PF
maybe we should get him…
#52. Get well soon.
by Eat Politicians on Dec 14, 2009 11:46 PM PST up reply actions
I wanted Durant before the draft and I'm tired of it
For one thing, I’d always rather be wrong when I disagree with a move the Blazers make and see Oden dominating. Since they drafted Oden he’s grown on me because of how he’s dealt with injuries (I made a big post about it when he got hurt this year) and this year before he got hurt he was becoming a force. Before the draft I had the “two Jessicas” philosophy and liked both (even after Oden’s first surgery I still thought they’d be close and said there’d be a bigger gap between Webster and CP3), the main reasons I wanted Durant was that he seemed like a unique talent and the league is going smaller and also Oden’s health. As leeroy said, there were whispers and I wondered how him having one leg shorter than the other couldn’t affect someone over 1000+ nba games, which is what you expect from a 1st pick (in fact, when I first heard about his leg it was from Bill Simmons so I thought he was joking to exagerate).
The thing is that now with all Oden’s injuries you can’t compare them in any way and if you didn’t know their names but just did Player X and Y side by side they wouldn’t have anything in common with their statistics and situations. The only thing they have in common is their draft positions and all any logical person can say is looking back we should have taken Durant. There isn’t any comparisons to make and I really take no joy whatsoever is being right on this, especially not since it’s because Oden’s hurt and Durant wins by default. To end and brighten this up I shall quote Homer Simpson “De fault, the two sweetest words in the English language.”
Your confusing thesis has captured my attention. Tell me more.
it's funny
when there was a link to a true hoop piece which used advanced statistics to argue that kevin durant made his team worse , dozens were injured in the blogging stampede that was blazer fans calling him a terrible player whose team never wins.
now when advanced statistics indicate that he’s among the nba’s elite players, those numbers are fickle and not indicative of his actual contribution.
getting people to discuss kevin durant rationally on this site is like asking colin cowherd not to be repititive.
I disagree
KD is good. EVERYONE knew he was good and all star material if not super star material. This was well known. If Oden could stay healthy I’d STILL pick him.
I will repeat myself based on information at the time.
1.) Blazers have KD’s position filled to some extent (Webster before injury was looking very good at that time)
2.) The biggest upgrade to the team would have been at Center. KD might be better, but was he the better UPGRADE?
3.) Championship teams have the dominate big man.
4.) Greg brought something that KD didn’t. Defense. Post toughness. Rebounding. ALL things that fans still want from the blazers and GOT when Oden played.
Oden fit in this team because he gave them things that the blazers were lacking. KD didn’t fit because he duplicated abilities of others.
3 years of not healthy has me sighing and saying “ah well”. In hindsight maybe I do something different. At the time, I still pick Oden. He WAS the best choice for the team and the team did look at his knees as well as other body parts that passed inspection with flying colors.
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
"I told Pau the Lakers never win here in Portland; I think it's great." -- Rudy Fernandez
32 pts, 10 reb, 3 ast, 2 stls and a block
says elite no matter what stats say.
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