25. I Need More Beer: The View from Milwaukee

GRRRRRRRR...

No jokes today, other than the decision of Nate McMillan and his surrogate Dean Demopoulos to sit The Rex in clutch time, overtime, and double overtime...

It irks me watching Bayless on the bench while Andre "Larry" Miller, Steve "Curly" Blake, and Brandon "Moe" Roy flush YET ANOTHER game, this time to the bottomfeeding Milwaukee Bucks..

Let it be said once again: Milwaukee is a crappy team. Bad. Losing to that team is NOT ACCEPTABLE.

My eyes say Bayless is the best of the 3 Blazer PGs, do the numbers verify this?

I'm actually not adverse to number-crunching, believe it or not.

Season stats, let's do it. All these numbers derive from the player pages at NBA.com, run through my old school calculator by hard-working immigrant laborers from Central America...

For purposes of this analysis...

I make the assumption that 9 out of 10 free throws taken are neither technicals nor AND ONE situations, so:

Points Per Possession = TOTAL POINTS / {FIELD SHOTS TAKEN + (.9 * FTs TAKEN / 2) + TURNOVERS}

I realize that TECHNICALLY the formula which I use here is not the definition of a "possession." Some shots are offensively rebounded and the possession kept alive. I argue that these offensive rebounds are random events independent of the action of the shooting player — that every shooter is the beneficiary of a more or less equal percentage of offensive rebounds and that none deserve credit for their fortuitous incompetence.

What I seek to demonstrate statistically is this: the level of efficiency of each of the four guards with the ball, in terms of themselves putting points on the board.

These figures are based on statistics accumulated through 24 games played...

Go!!!

BRANDON ROY — our Max Deal Super Star.

• 37.4 minutes per game. 21.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 5.0 APG. Turnovers per game  = 2.33.
• In Per 36 Minutes terms: 20.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 4.8 RPG. Turnovers = 2.24.
• Two Point Shooting: 145-for-297 = 48.8%
• Three Point Shooting: 30-for-92 = 32.6%, effectively 48.9%
• Free Throw Shooting: 127-for-157 = 80.9%
• Points Per Possession: 507 / (389+71+56) = 0.983

ANDRE MILLER — our Highly Touted Free Agent Acquisition.

• 27.1 minutes per game. 11.5 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 4.4 APG. Turnovers per game = 2.13.
• In Per 36 Minutes terms: 15.3 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 5.8 APG. Turnovers = 2.83.
• Two Point Shooting: 82-for-179 = 45.8%
• Three Point Shooting:  8-for-31 = 25.8%, effectively 38.7%
• Free Throw Shooting: 89-for-108 = 82.4%
• Points Per Possession: 277 / (210+49+51) = 0.894

STEVE BLAKE — our Safe, Steady, Secure, Reliable Veteran.

• 30.0 minutes per game. 7.2 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 4.2 APG. Turnovers per game = 1.54.
• In Per 36 Minutes terms: 8.6 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 5.0 APG. Turnovers = 1.85.
• Two Point Shooting: 24-for-62 = 38.7%
• Three Point Shooting: 36-for-101 = 35.6%, effectively 53.5%
• Free Throw Shooting: 16-for-23 = 69.6%
• Points Per Possession: 172 / (163+14+37) = 0.804

JERRYD BAYLESS — Nate's Towel Boy.

• 10.2 minutes per game (17 games played, 7 DNP-CD). 5.6 PPG, 0.8 RPG, 1.1 APG. TO per game = 0.53
• In Per 36 Minutes terms: 19.8 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 3.9 APG. Turnovers = 1.87.
• Two Point Shooting: 28-for-50 = 56.0%
• Three Point Shooting: 1-for-6 = 16.7%, effectively 25.0%
• Free Throw Shooting: 36-for-48 = 75.0%
• Points Per Possession: 95 / (56+22+9) = 1.092

What Have We Learned???

1. A Jerryd Bayless possession is more efficient than a Brandon Roy possession, much more efficient than an Andre Miller possession, and comically more efficient than a Steve Blake possession.

2. Jerryd Bayless has about the same turnover rate as the "reliable veteran" Steve Blake, a superior turnover rate than that of Superstar Brandon Roy, and a much superior turnover rate to that of Fancy Passer Andre Miller.

3. Steve Blake is the worst Free Throw shooter of the four and thus the one LEAST reliable to put on the line during crunch time to hit two key FTs. Blake's FT shooting this season is more closely comparable to that of Joel Przybilla (66.7%) than it is to that of the other guards.

4. Steve Blake's one marketable NBA level offensive skill is that of a 3 point specialist. It makes best sense to use him situationally in that capacity.

A is for Andre — Start him!

B is for Blake — Bench him!

C is for Coaching Change Needed if Nate can't figure it out...

D is for Duh.

D is also for defense.

I will say this anecdotally, based upon what I see as a basketball fan — Jerryd Bayless plays better perimeter defense than either Steve Blake or Andre Miller. So using the most effective of these three OFFENSIVE players also will net the team superior DEFENSE as a by-product.

I dare you to prove me wrong, stat geeks... Or, better yet, provide us all with some numbers to confirm what I am saying and wow us... Either way, have at it...

Why is the decision to play Rex in lieu of a less efficient and defensively less competent teammate so hard?

And now, a word from our sponsor. Yes, it is an Arrested Development Fan Tribute...

Channel Surfing.

Saturday, Dec. 12.

Los Angeles Lakers (18-3) at Utah Jazz (14-9).

The Utah Jazz are back — have you noticed?

The Lakers were perfectly set up to see their NBA-best winning streak end at 11 — and it did. LAL was on the tail end of back-to-back on the road, leader Kobe Bryant was forced to play with a splint to protect a fracture of the guide finger of his shooting hand and was under the weather with a stomach virus, having to receive an IV before the game. The Lakers additionally came in cockier than usual (imagine!), having just dismantled the Jazz in Staples Center earlier in the week as a result of a 6 point 4th Quarter mailed in by Jerry's Kids.

The Jazz were in front of their rowdy home crowd and anxious to show that it was the second half of the previous confrontation with the Lakers rather than the solid first half which was anomalous.

The 1st Quarter played completely even and thereafter the Jazz took control, fueled by the 15-point first half performance of rookie Wesley Matthews, together with rookie Eric Maynor and C.J. Miles. Lakers shot 59% in the first half but still trailed by 6 in this, just their FIFTH road game of the 2009/10 season.

In the second half the usual characters took over. Jazz went on a 8-2 run to start the 3rd Quarter to open up distance from the Lakers, who didn't have enough gas in the tank to follow. Kobe's Krew played catchup the rest of the night, unsuccessfully.

"Kobe Bryant doesn't want to guard anyone right now, he's not even trying to guard Ronnie Brewer, he's trying to rest, you can tell he's tired right now," noted Jazz color commentator Matt Harpring.

"He's almost a decoy," agreed play-by-play man Craig Bolerjak.

All-Star Deron Williams finished with 21 points and 11 assists, Carlos Boozer was just 12 points and 8 rebounds, also adding 7 assists. A most impressive win for Utah, a deep and well-coached team. Jazz 102, Lakers 94.

Portland Trail Blazers (14-10) at Milwaukee Bucks (10-11).

I'm pissed and it's late and I've spent a lot of time already this evening supervising my 11 hardworking Central American data-entry specialsts. So I'm gonna take the night off and will let you all administer the sage and cynical observations to yourselves about this most painful and most needless Blazer loss. These are all distilled from the postgame rant thread here at BE... Go, cats, go...

I wonder if Bayless will do like Cuban baseball players
and just defect on a road trip at some point.

by DrivetheLane on Dec 12, 2009 8:30 PM PST

Blake -  42 minutes, 7 points, 1 assist
Bayless - 18 minutes, 9 points, 0 assist

by fajunga on Dec 12, 2009 8:31 PM PST

Our guards not named Bayless shot 13-46 tonight

by blazermaniac32 on Dec 12, 2009 9:00 PM PST

33%

B-Roy was 8 of 24. It isn't that he wasn't on, it was poor shot selection. It's time to quit calling it B-Roy's team. Brandon can't carry the team. When he tries, he forces too many shots. Worse, the only reason Blake is playing is because Brandon wants him in. Time for the coaching staff to do their job and bag this B-Roy's team stuff.

by Tim Tim on Dec 12, 2009 9:00 PM PST

I'm pretty upset

not with how the team played but how the refs robbed the PTB of a win. It really makes being a fan difficult. I know human error is a part of the reffing business, but there is no excuse for blatant bias and wrong-doing. What the refs did tonight was no different then what Tim Donaghy did on any night.

by bow4meow on Dec 12, 2009 9:14 PM PST

Roy is playing like the borderline allstar of 2 years ago

(who made it but probably didn't deserve to over eg. Baron, DWill and Manu)
not the 2nd team all NBA player of last year. The stats reflect that.

by jksnake99 on Dec 12, 2009 9:30 PM PST

It's coaching

The system is wrong. It's the stand and watch spread the floor system. It doesn't encourage movement. You can see the guys go to their spots, which is how the system is designed. They run the ball, up the court only to slow it down. They catch and stop and think. They wait for double teams. Seems like they think that double teams are good so they can pass out, but they never cut. If the players are not moving on their own, then the coaches need to coach them. It's coaching.

by davebball on Dec 12, 2009 9:28 PM PST

Phil Jackson and Popovich might be geniuses, but they wouldn't be without Jordan, Duncan, Shaq, etc.

The triangle doesn't work without the perfect players; Popovich's ability to see the big picture and focus on the playoffs doesn't work without the right players.

I definitely think coach's affect things greatly, but simply not nearly as much as the players... and the right players will make any coach a good coach, and the wrong players will make any legendary coach look bad.

We could have Jesus out there coaching us (his basketball mind is very underrated); doesn't make a difference unless Oden is healthy and Roy playing at least 3/4s as good as before.

Roy making the wrong reads a lot more than he used to, makes our offense look bad. * * *

I do not know if Nate is the right choice at all, but I do see many things the players are doing wrong that they know not to do.

by Mortimer on Dec 12, 2009 10:19 PM PST

Yeah, that stuff about sums it up... Blazers now sit as the 8 seed in the Western Conference, with the San Antonio Spurs sizing them up in their gun sights... Bucks 108, Blazers 101 (2OT).

Well, let's whip out the good old Popcorn Machine GAME FLOW SUMMARY and see if we can decipher anything from the pretty pictures... Click that link, por favor.

Observation 1: The game turned on a 16-2 Milwaukee run starting around the midway point of the 3rd Quarter. The Blazers on the floor responsible for the catastrophe? Blake, Roy, Webster, LMA, Przybilla — the starters.

Observation 2: Rookie of the Year candidate Brandon Jennings took no shots in the first half but racked up 12 points in the 3rd Quarter. 

Observation 3: The most effective Blazer in terms of +/- wasn't Jerryd Bayles — it was Juwon Howard.

Observation 4: Demopolous used the same lineup throughout crunchtime, the first overtime, and the second overtime, pulling Webster for Andre Miller. Andre scored exactly one point during that one nearly 15 minute interval, in which he played all but the last 27 seconds.

Observation 5: LMA finished with 31 points, which is season-high for him, I think.

Well, the latest installment of THE GREATEST THING IN THE WORLD is also Friday's installment, which I've already linked up yesterday, so as a quick space-filler, here's a 30 second snippet of Rex Propaganda from the days when the Beast was a baby...

Well, let's take our taunting from the journalists and bloggers of Bucksville...

(1)

Thrills, Spills & Then Some: Bogut's 27 points lead way

By Charles F. Gardner, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

It nearly took all night, and it did take two tension-packed overtimes.

But the Milwaukee Bucks survived plenty of chills and spills to outlast the Portland Trail Blazers, 108-101, at the Bradley Center before 15,973 fans Saturday night.

Andrew Bogut led the way with 27 points and nine rebounds, and the Bucks center nearly won the game in regulation until his tip-in was ruled too late by a video review. * * *

"We just had to fight," [Bucks Guard Luke] Ridnour said. "We knew they had to wear out eventually. We feel we've given up a couple leads already this season, and this was one we had to find a way to win."

(2)

Recap: Bucks 108 Blazers 101

by Alex Boeder, Brew Hoop (SBN)

* * *
Three Numbers

• 6. The Bucks totaled just six, count 'em, six fast break points in the game. The Blazers had seven. Another six for ya: Milwaukee scored just six second-chance points, compared to 23 for Portland. And this worked?
• 49.5 %. Milwaukee shot 45-91 (.495) from the field as Portland made 37-92 (.402).
• 52. Lamarcus Aldridge played a lot of minutes (52) tonight. Pretty useful (31 points, 11 rebounds) out there too. * * *

(3)

Bucks Win A Thriller: Bucks 108 - Blazers 101

by Jeremy, Bucksketball (TrueHoop)

*  *  *

Memorable Moments

Beyond the shots that we'll remember for the rest of the season, we were treated to a few tense instant replay ref calls.

Was Bogut's tip shot at the end of regulation good? It wasn't, but it was fun waiting for the refs to tell us whether or not he touched it before the buzzer went off.

Did Luc Richard Mbah a Moute tip the ball out of bounds in the first overtime with the Bucks down two, or did Aldridge hit it last? The tape wasn't super clear, but it did appear Aldridge's fingers were the last thing the ball touched in play.

Squad Six had the building rocking by starting a "this way" chant while pointing in the Bucks direction. Soon everyone else joined in on the fun and the arena filled with electricity. * * *

(4)

Lock Down Defense and the Will to Win

by TCM1, Bucks Diary (MVN)

*  *  *

When Brandon Roy, who was completely dominated by the defense of Luc Moute, hit that fade away UTTER [BARNYARD EPITHET] SHOT the Bucks could have gone away (that was not a "big time shot" either though it was described that way by the announcers. No way! It was a guy who was completely checked down, had nowhere to go, who barely even had a handle on the ball, spinning in desperation and then hoisting a low percentage barnyard epithet shot that was pure garbage and wouldn't have counted in HORSE or pool because it was such pure slop).

When Andrew Bogut's tip in at the buzzer was overturned, the Bucks could have gone away. When they were down two at the end of the first overtime, the Bucks could have gone away. They never did and that's why this was an absolutely huge win for the team. *  *  *

The Bottom Line:

1. Bucks fought and fought and fought and came up big.

2. Nice game by Aldridge, but our guys earned the win.