It's Bayless Time
by Ben Golliver on Dec 10, 2009 2:41 PM PST
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With Rudy Fernandez, Nicolas Batum and Travis Outlaw all out of action, we've reached a crossroads for Jerryd Bayless.
As Dwight Jaynes recently pointed out, Bayless hasn't been particularly happy in Portland this season. If you're looking for a symbol of his restlessness, you need look no further than his blogspot blog, a declaration of independence from an organization that squashed the idea of hosting his blog on Blazers.com for as-yet-unexplained reasons during his rookie year.
"I don't need team approval to express myself any more," Bayless seems to be saying. What's the number one reason people start personal blogs? They're looking for an avenue to get things off their chest.
Can you blame Jerryd Bayless for harboring some frustration after watching young point guards like Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose, Jonny Flynn, Brandon Jennings, Ty Lawson, Tyreke Evans and Darren Collison receive significant run? After seeing former Blazers Jarrett Jack, Channing Frye and Sergio Rodriguez enjoy success almost as soon as they left Portland?
Are you wondering which Blazer shakes the most hands before games with coaches and players from other teams around the league? I can tell you unequivocally, without hesitation, that Blazer is Jerryd Bayless.
I'll admit to some Team Bayless fatigue at the start of the season. There is a limit to the number of times you can repeat the phrase "Give the kid a chance!" before everyone starts drowning you out. As recently as last month, I was so sick of listening to myself champion Jerryd Bayless's cause that I decided to pretty much stop writing about him all together.
Today that changes. Because I finally found someone or something that thinks Bayless deserves more playing time as much as I do. That someone or something is Synergy Sports. (For a rundown of Synergy Sports read this post from last week.)
While Bayless has played just 10 minutes per game -- compared to 29 minutes for Steve Blake and 27 for Andre Miller -- Synergy's profiles offer little evidence that this is an appropriate distribution of minutes. In fact, the Synergy profiles offer ample evidence that Jerryd Bayless should be seeing a significant increase in playing time. Let's break it down.
The New, (Mostly) Improved Bayless
Last year there were three main knocks on Bayless: he couldn't hit a jump shot, he turned the ball over, and he too often played defense with his hands, committing unnecessary fouls. Let's take each criticism in turn.
Bayless is Shooting Lights Out
It's just about time to put the first criticism -- that Bayless can't shoot -- to bed. Bayless is connecting on a remarkable 52.7% of his field goal attempts, far and away the best of any Blazer guard.
Where's that improvement coming from? One thing is for sure: it's not coming from distance. Bayless continues to resist shooting the 3 ball, something that he's never done well as a pro. His 3 point shooting is pretty much atrocious but it barely affects his overall offensive efficiency because he isn't jacking up many threes.
Instead, his offensive efficiency has sky-rocketed from last year because he has shown significant improvement in virtually every other facet of his offensive game. Check this chart out.
In the chart, PPP refers to points per possession. Synergy defines this is terms of the player relative to the plays that individual is primarily responsible for. This chart shows quite clearly the leap Bayless has taken on offense. No other Blazer comes close to matching his 63 percentile jump year over year in efficiency. That kind of improvement just doesn't happen. It's a testament to how much he struggled as a rookie in spot duty and to how we shouldn't let memories of last year cloud our judgment of him this year.
You might be surprised to find out what is propelling this outlandish improvement. Get this: Bayless currently ranks in the 100% percentile as a mid-range jump-shooter. Seriously. From 17 feet out to the three point line, Bayless is by far the best on his team and ranks among the top 5 players in the NBA in shooting percentage. Simply incredible.
Bayless is Protecting the Rock
The second knock on Bayless -- that he's sloppy with the basketball -- is looking less and less like a reality this year. Take a look at this comparison between Bayless, Andre Miller and Steve Blake when it comes to what Synergy calls %TO and %FT. %TO refers to the percentage of possessions where this player is the primary ball handler that end in a turnover. %FT refers to the percentage of possessions where this player is the primary ball handler that end in a trip to the foul line.
As you can see, not only is Bayless far and away the best of the three point guards at getting to the foul line, he's actually better at protecting the ball than either one of his veteran teammates too. Does it help that Bayless plays against backups and that he has been used off the ball? Sure it does. But Bayless has shown evidence of maturity as a ball-handler too: he's slashed his turnovers per game from 1.1 last year to .6 this year.
When Bayless does turn the ball over it can get ugly, like the time he was sprawled out in Madison Square Garden expecting a whistle that never came. The point isn't that Bayless doesn't commit turnovers. The point is he has committed them far less frequently than last year while also getting to the foul line more frequently. That's a recipe for increased offensive efficiency, something the Blazers have long sought from the point guard position (more on that later).
Bayless Is Too Handsy on Defense
No question about it: the third criticism of Bayless -- that he uses his hands too much on defense and commits needless fouls -- is still accurate. Kevin Pelton ran the numbers for me. This chart shows foul rate: how many fouls per possession each of the Blazers' three point guards commits.
As you can see, Bayless is far and away the worst of the three. This is a flaw. But is it fatal? Does it disqualify him from being a good or adequate defender? We'll look at that in a little bit.
Bayless on Offense
Now that we've addressed each of the three major criticisms of Bayless, let's dig a little deeper into his overall performance on offense and defense compared to Andre Miller and Steve Blake.
If you've browsed Bayless' Per 36 minute numbers (statistics adjusted for playing time) you no doubt are already aware that his points per 36 put him among the team's leaders. In terms of instant offense, he leads every bench player (including Travis Outlaw) by a wide margin. He out-paces both Andre Miller and Steve Blake.
This isn't necessarily surprising for someone that hasn't received a lot of playing time and who is instructed to be aggressive with the ball when he is in the game.
However, we should not write off Bayless' offensive production as simply the meaningless product of garbage time. Synergy notes that Bayless has enjoyed success in virtually every aspect of offense that it tracks. Bayless ranks "Good" overall in the Pick and Roll, "Excellent" in dribbling off picks, "Excellent" in isolation and "Very Good" in transition. With the ball in his hands, regardless of situation, Bayless has been getting it done.
All of those rankings are a function of two basic skills: Bayless can beat his man off the dribble and he can draw fouls. Those skills are incredibly valuable from an efficiency perspective because they lead to high field goal percentages and free points from the foul line. Combine that with Bayless's new-found ability to protect the basketball and he currently stands as the team's best point guard at offensive efficiency. And he does so by a wide margin.
If there's room for improvement for Jerryd Bayless on offense it comes from his pass outs on the pick and rolls. This probably doesn't surprise you. He rates "Average" and "Below Average" in some pass-out categories whereas he rates "Very Good" and "Excellent" from the same spots when he decides to shoot or drive instead of pass. Certainly some of this is his fault. However, as noted last week in the discussion of LaMarcus Aldridge's passing, the Blazers spot-up shooting overall hasn't been great and the guys Bayless is passing to in the second unit -- Rudy Fernandez and Martell Webster -- have been particularly weak.
By comparison, Andre Miller's turnovers in transition (an astonishing 23.8 %TO) and "Below Average" jump shooting are significantly bigger detriments to the team's offensive efficiency. Steve Blake's "Poor" mid-range shooting, "Poor" ability to run the pick and roll overall and horrible shooting when the shot clock is running out (just 15% from the field with less than 4 seconds on the shot clock) are all significantly bigger detriments to overall offensive efficiency than Bayless's shortcomings as a passer.
When I wrote a week or so ago that Andre Miller's ability to draw fouls was one of the Blazers' most valuable offensive weapons, it turns out I was half right. I was right about the weapon but I was partially wrong about the player. Bayless attempts 10 free throws per 36 minutes, leading the team, while Miller attempts 6 free throws per 36 minutes. Miller's number is good... Bayless's is great.
Indeed, now that Greg Oden has gone down, Synergy's numbers, overall, state that Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge and Jerryd Bayless have been the team's top 3 most efficient offensive options this season. Roy plays 37 minutes per game, LaMarcus Aldridge plays 34 minutes per game and Bayless... well, he plays 10 minutes per game. How do you like them apples?
Bayless on Defense
To no one's surprise, we can attribute Bayless' relative lack of playing time to his coach's preference for defense-first. Comparing the individual defensive efficiency numbers for the three point guards, Steve Blake is the clear winner.
Despite all the talk about Andre Miller as a defensive upgrade over Blake -- including talk from me on that subject -- the numbers through 22 games don't support that assertion. Miller has been slightly better than Bayless but noticeably worse than Blake.
Both Blake and Miller enjoy solid success across most categories. Blake is "Excellent" in pick and rolls, "Good" in isolation, and "Excellent" against spot-up shooters. Miller is "Good" in pick and rolls, "Excellent" in isolation, and "Average" against spot-up shooters. Miller's numbers are pulled down a bit because he is "Below Average" in post-up situations, one of the negative by-products of the team's smaller 3 guard lineup.
Bayless's numbers show that through 22 games he has a significant flaw in his defense: defending the pick and roll. Interestingly, however, Bayless rated "Very Good" in this category over the entirety of last year, suggesting that his current "Poor" ranking looks worse than it might be if his playing time increased. Other than this weakness, Bayless posts "Good" or "Above Average" ratings in just about every other defensive situation this season. He is also holding his man to a slightly lower shooting percentage this season.
In conclusion, Synergy's data suggests that, overall, Jerryd Bayless is nearly as good a defensive option as Andre Miller this season, despite his high foul rate. His data from last year suggests he would probably play better defense than he has played so far this year if his minutes increased.
Summary
Nate McMillan and his coaching staff are weighing their options when it comes to Jerryd Bayless. They are certainly aware of his strengths on offense, his potential on defense and are likely worried about his propensity for fouling.
Taking all of the above into account -- the success Blake has shown on defense, Bayless's foul rate -- it's difficult if not impossible to argue that Bayless should be starting or earning the bulk of the point guard playing time. That's just not realistic at this point.
However, if you're the coaching staff and you're simply looking for evidence that Bayless's burn should increase, I think there's plenty. His offensive efficiency, his solid numbers overall on defense, his low turnover rate and his ability to get to the foul line are all big plusses. Many of these did not exist last year. Also, offensive struggles over 22 games and significant minutes from both Blake and Miller were not expected and, at some point, should not be tolerated without at least testing the obvious alternative.
If you calculate net points per possession for each of the three point guards, Bayless does quite well. To do this, simply subtract the defensive points per possession given away by the player from the offensive points per possession produced by the player. The result gives you a sense for the individual's contribution each time up and down the court. Doing this for each of the three point guards shows Bayless on top.
Is this enough to say that Bayless should be starting or that he's ready for 30 minutes a night? Probably not. His success in this stat is likely a function of being better than the backups he is playing against. However, I think it does add nicely to the overall case that Bayless can handle -- and should be given -- say, 18 to 20 minutes a night while Rudy Fernandez is absent. Give him two full runs through the rotation, one in the first half and one in the second half. And, perhaps, experiment more with working Bayless into a three guard lineup to see if he can continue his scorching shooting while playing off the ball alongside Brandon Roy.
To summarize, the advanced stats really like Jerryd Bayless on offense and they like him more than the general consensus might like him on defense too. Aside from foul rate and some struggles this year while defending the pick and roll, Synergy's reports see no major red flags that might result from increasing his playing time. In cases where the Blazers are struggling on offense, Synergy's reports provide some very strong arguments that his playing time should be ramped up considerably.
At the very beginning of this post I noted that the Blazers are at a crossroads with Bayless. Put simply: in Jerryd Bayless's mind, it's about time that the Blazers trade him or play him.
On this team, at this time, with these stats, I believe the strongest response to that question is to play him.
-- Ben Golliver | (benjamin.golliver@gmail.com) | Twitter
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Comments
Seriously....
Why doesn’t he get more burn? Last year the reason was obvious—he played like crud. He was a rookie, rookies often do that, I’m OK with it.
But this year—the numbers above speak for themselves. He’s been quite effective when he’s been on the floor, and has been improving.
So what’s up? I’m trying very hard to give Nate the benefit of the doubt, but it’s getting harder to do.
- Is he doing something wrong in practice? We only see the games, the coaching staff sees the whole thing, and its possible he has practice habits which tick folks off—but that would run contrary to Bayless’ reputation as a gym rat and a rather intense fellow. It’s possible that he’s doing something wrong and Nate is simply refraining from tossing him under the bus—but there’s the whole matter of Andre Miller and the preseason physical.
- Is it the whole “I don’t want to crush Steve Blake’s dreams, like mine were crushed by Gary Payton” thing? If THAT is it, then both Nate and Blake need to grow up and act like men, like professionals. It’s one thing for Nate to go and admit that he had hard feelings from being benched in favor of a rookie (even if that rookie is headed to the Hall of Fame), and to make the new guy earn his starting job. But what if George Karl, or whoever was coaching Seattle at the time, had chained the Glove to the bench? Ugh. You’re the coach, Nate. This is the PROS. Put your best expletive team on the blankety-blank floor, and if someone’s feelings get hurt, too fratching bad. (I’m tryin’ very hard here not to violate site rules…)
- Is it an aversion to guys who wear the “point guard” label and look to shoot? That’s would be an understandable excuse—-except for the bit about Andre Miller riding the bench.
- Is it complaints about Bayless’ defense, which was pretty bad—last year? Last I checked, neither Blake nor Miller exactly reminded me of Payton on D.
I am Spartacus and I approved this message
by EngineerScotty on Dec 10, 2009 2:57 PM PST up reply actions
I've been watching this team
for Bayless.
No Oden, lethargic Roy (before Pacers) and LMA, I’ve been paying close attention when Bayless is in. He makes things happen. When Rudy starts hitting 3s again, they’ll be a very dynamic back court.
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
by HurraKane212 on Dec 10, 2009 3:01 PM PST up reply actions
I've been watching for Bayless too
I’ve felt disillusioned this season and especially over the last couple of weeks about the Blazers’ status relative to the rest of the league bigwigs. We went from “longshot WCF contenders” to “My jaw will bounce off the floor if the Blazers make the playoffs” in no time flat. Given the intermittent effort of Roy and the middling effort of LMA, Bayless has been one of the primary things keeping me tuned in. It’s breaking my heart to not see him get 25 minutes a game. What do we have to lose at this point?
"One of the bright spots of the young season has been rookie point guard Jonny Flynn, whose name sounds like he should be the lead character in a Broadway Musical. "What are you doing here, Jonny Flynn?" "Why I'm here to court trouble, and woo a girl, and build the most fantastical contraption the world has ever seen!" -- Dave, Game 7 Blazers versus Timberwolves preview
by BlazersOrBust on Dec 10, 2009 3:42 PM PST up reply actions
Agreed
And is so hard to watch Blake when Bayless goes in – hits a few shots, plays good defense and then gets benched after a couple of minutes.
Even more so when watching Bayless develop is the only fun part of the game…
I have faith that...
Bayless will get the minutes he deserves if he keeps playing well. When that happens, I don’t know.
I stopped trying to figure out Nate and the coaching staff 3 months ago...
Perhaps it’s time we do a protest at the Rose Garden. If one of the more talented graphic artist at BE is willing to come up with a “Free Bayless” or “Team Bayless” shirt, I am willing to purchase it and wear to Blazer games whenever I get the chance.
My idea for the graphical image is a giant T-Rex eating an unsaid starting PG.
I stopped trying to figure out Nate and the coaching staff 3 months ago...
Perhaps it’s time we do a protest at the Rose Garden. If one of the more talented graphic artist at BE is willing to come up with a “Free Bayless” or “Team Bayless” shirt, I am willing to purchase it and wear to Blazer games whenever I get the chance.
My idea for the graphical image is a giant T-Rex eating an unsaid starting PG.
I'm actually glad that you can get your feelings out.
*Unless KP has a secret plan that makes this statement incorrect.
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moar bayless!!!
Show your support for Greg Oden: Join the get well soon Facebook fan page.
by Starvin' Marvin on Dec 10, 2009 2:47 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
rec
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
by HurraKane212 on Dec 10, 2009 2:50 PM PST up reply actions
I like information.
I’ve always been of the camp that has said, “When he shows that he can do it, then Bayless should get on the floor.” But last year, he really didn’t show that he could for more than brief stretches. This year didn’t start real well for him, but I have to say that he has made the most of it when he’s out there. I haven’t seen too many times where I’ve regretted that Bayless has been on the floor.
These stats that you’ve dug up confirm my suspicions. Now I don’t know if Bayless should necessarily be starting, as some have vocally maintained. But he should definitely get more minutes than he has based on his performance in comparison to our other players. Especially with the injuries.
Of course, things always happen slower than they would if we were in charge. Still, I expect that Bayless’ minutes should start gradually going up. If 10 games from now Bayless is sitting at the same minutes per game (or less) without a major uptick in Blake’s ability to hit outside shots, or Miller’s ability to run the floor, then something is wrong.
But he’s earned a solid rotation spot in our current lineup. I’m ready so see what he can do with it.
πεντήκοντα δύο
by T Darkstar on Dec 10, 2009 2:54 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Free Bayless! Let's see what he can do. Play him so he can become
the point guard we need for goodness sake.
Another great post Ben.
#52
I wouldn't recommend using quotes on a phrase that bayless isn't actually saying...
“I don’t need team approval to express myself any more,” Bayless seems to be saying.
Just seems a little…ambiguous in my eyes.
"Ain't nothin' in this world for free."
I think it would make a great Junk Drawer idea
Quotes we think people would say
Dogs have Owners, Cats have Staff.
I also believe Blazers should play Bayless.
But Bayless didn’t write his blog to cry over his frustration with playing time or much about the game itself.
Many of you are probably wondering what I’m going to be talking about through out these blogs. I can assure you basketball might be one of the last things on the list. I’ve always considered myself much more than a basketball player and feel like this blog is a perfect way to show that.
by ireallylikejerrydbayless on Dec 10, 2009 3:04 PM PST reply actions
I mean, it's not like he would blog on a site affliated with the organization
if he’s not going to talk about anything really related to it.
by ireallylikejerrydbayless on Dec 10, 2009 3:09 PM PST up reply actions
Given the current state of our lineup
I almost wonder whether it wouldn’t make the most sense to start Bayless and have him play a role much like Batum did last year, i.e., a guy who starts but only plays 20 minutes or so max. The reason I say that is:
1) I think it makes sense, for the future of the team, to see how a Roy/Bayless backcourt looks,
2) with the offense running through Roy and Aldridge almost exclusively in the 1st and 3rd quarters, we don’t really need an experienced guy out there at PG. Having a scrappy hustler like Bayless out there might be effective. He can get some transition buckets and draw some fouls when sets break down.
3) I think Bayless has more potential to be a great defender than Blake or Miller and it would be more helpful for his development to get burn against good starting PGs
4) Blake’s ability to hit a three would actually be more helpful in the second unit where (thanks to Rudy and Outlaw’s injuries) there is currently no one who can hit a three pointer. At least in the starting lineup we already have Roy, Webster, and even Alrdridge (who can hit threes).
www.blazerguy.com
by Blazer Guy on Dec 10, 2009 3:08 PM PST reply actions 3 recs
Play Bayless
I agree, I’d like to see what happens w/ Bayless starting. We have started several games flat lately, and Bayless brings a lot of energy to the floor. Also, I suspect that Bayless may bring even more fire once he knows that he is a more regular part of the roatation, and not likely to be pulled the first time he makes a mistake.
+ 1
I’ve been pumping BRex for quite a while. Primarily due to
the Blazers poor perimeter defense coupled with Jerryd’s athleticism
and potential to fill that void. The fact that he is a combo style guard on
offense never bothered me, as BRoy has proved that he will initiate the offense
and is a willing passer. Jerryd’s work ethic combined with his ability to slash
to the rim and draw fouls is a element the Blazers need to create those mid
range jumpers for others. Most imprortantly, he will only improve if he gets minutes
and experrience. Free the REX !!!
and COINCAST SUCKS !!!!
It's GO time !
Rice was on with Vance at noon
Mike said that Nate was getting Andre ramped up to start during practices last week, but then the coach blew his achilles and now Demo is in charge of the road trip and playing Blake 38-39 mpg. Dean is big on reducing turnovers, so it’s no surprise he’s “extending” Blake at Miller and Bayless’ expense
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I remember the Mikes commenting on Dean
there was a game last year where Portland only committed 4 turnovers, and Dean made a point to come over to the TV table after the game to gush about it
Limiting turnovers is a good goal for improving half-court playoff efficiency, but to make an omelete you’ve got to break a few eggs. Limiting turnovers also can restrict “creative” ball movement and scoring easy baskets
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Dminishing returns
A former executive where I work was fond of silly slogans like “if you never miss a plane, you spend too much time waiting in airports”. Obviously, turnovers are bad things, but there is an opportunity cost to excessively cautious play.
I am Spartacus and I approved this message
by EngineerScotty on Dec 10, 2009 3:54 PM PST up reply actions
John Wooden
“I don’t mean this to sound glib, but the most common mistake leaders make might be fear of making a mistake.”
"My great coach at Purdue, Piggy Lambert, used to tell us, ‘The team that makes the most mistakes wins.’"
#52
Goodness gracious, sakes alive
Demo must not have read about the Pyramid of Success
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
it doesnt matter if you break an egg in an omelete
cause you beat the egg anyway.
you dont want to beak an egg in an easy over
bayless leaves over my dead body
Start Andre (in a 2 guard lineup)
"Good defense always beats bad offense."-Al Iannazzone, Yes Network
if you should strike Oden down he will become more powerful than you can possibly imagine
#52
by thomasikehara on Dec 10, 2009 4:33 PM PST up reply actions
Just pick out the eggshells...
I am Spartacus and I approved this message
by EngineerScotty on Dec 10, 2009 4:38 PM PST up reply actions
I didn't say it was just as good or bad
Just pointing out that they are both worth zero points.
And without #52 we won’t be able to pull down as many offensive boards …
???
I’ve seen this point made elsewhere, but as they say in golf, “never up, never in”. Gotta shoot to score, and TO’s make it easier for the opponent to score.
Missed shots aren’t remotely as bad as TO’s with regards to affecting the scoreboard
by blacknoiseNW on Dec 10, 2009 7:09 PM PST up reply actions
nevermind
I am not advocating that we design an offense based on turning the ball over and not taking shots. I do, however, agree that at a certain point our methodical, careful offense is less effective because of our unwillingness take risks that could result in high-percentage shots.
it depends
some violations (like traveling, or 3 in the key) are counted as turnovers, but they just give the opponent the ball out on the side…while a “burped up” jump shot that clanks off the rim can become the first “pass” of the other team’s fast break
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
The irony of this statement is that Bayless is commiting the fewest TOs of our guards
If Demo really wants to cut down on TOs he would pull Blake.
by upper left corner on Dec 11, 2009 1:34 PM PST up reply actions
I wouldn't mind seeing
Bayless minutes per game going up to the 16-18 range………I’m ready to give the guy more of a shot to see what he can do with extended minutes.
"I'm a man, but I can change.....if I have to......I guess." - Red Green
youre thinking small
bayless in the 20s, miller in the 20s, steve can have the first few minutes of a quarter
Ben, THANK YOU
This post is everything I’ve been trying to tell people… WHY NOT PLAY THE GUY!?!?
We need more consistent offense then Jump shots (and thats all we’ll get with GO out..) and Bayless can give it to us.. Defense will come with time, he’s got the tools, just needs time. Nate needs to realize that he’s got a serious weapon on the bench. Stop being so suborn and PLAY THE GUY!
by Lil0drummer0boy on Dec 10, 2009 3:16 PM PST reply actions
OH!
And where can I get one of those shirts???
by Lil0drummer0boy on Dec 10, 2009 3:20 PM PST reply actions
I don't know for how long you have been compiling this information and waiting to post it,
but you sure picked the perfect timing.
Bayless homer’s everywhere, rejoice! He has a better chance of saving this team than Miller does at this point in my opinion. He has been moving off the ball and making his shots well enough.
With Rudy out he should ALWAYS back Roy, PLUS he should be in there with Roy for at least ten minutes a game and hopefully much more.
In fact, I wouldn’t complain about this starting lineup:
Joel
LMA
Dante
Roy
Bayless
Would be fun to watch, I think. Key on working Bayless/Aldridge in the first quarter, with a toss to Roy if the clock runs down. Joel & Dante just need to hit wide open stuff.
On defense, LMA may have to guard the three, with Dante taking the four.
*Unless KP has a secret plan that makes this statement incorrect.
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that lineup looks solid on paper but...
…it doesn’t have anyone that can guard opposing 3’s
"So I said, 'Supercollider?! I just met her!'" - Humorbot 5.0
zone, zone on the range
When LeBron and Anthony play,
where our centers can’t hoard, not one offensive board,
and the opposition get rebounds all day!
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
by HurraKane212 on Dec 10, 2009 3:46 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Paraphrasing K-Dash
That lineup looks solid on paper, but I will now make a wholly paper-based criticism of it.
:)
Disclaimer: everything I know about basketball I learned on Blazersedge.
Too true.
I recognized it as well, as you can see.
But LMA likes to play outside, make him guard outside. ;)
*Unless KP has a secret plan that makes this statement incorrect.
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This is the best Blazers news I've read in a while
I’ve always loved Bayless and his potential, but it’s encouraging to see the numbers back it up, too. Thanks for posting this, Ben. Hopefully Nate reads it.
Get Well Oden
The handling of the PG position this year has been just absolutely asinine.
Our key FA signing, Andre Miller, was never given the chance to start at PG despite having the best PG resume of the 3 by about a gazillion miles. The incumbent starting PG, Steve Blake, has been absolutely terrible this year, likely outside the top 50 PGs in the league. Our young PG with potential is seeing by far the fewest minutes of the 3, even though by some measures he’s’ played the best AND we’ve lost many players to injury, which means we should focus more on player development than we otherwise should have.
The inability of our coaching staff to adjust the PG rotation to new personnel, Bayless’ improvement, the altering of the goals for the season due to injuries, and Blake’s somewhat predictable regression is plain and simple a joke. An absolute joke.
#52
by jksnake99 on Dec 10, 2009 3:30 PM PST reply actions 32 recs
At least they're sticking to a plan. If you wanna make the playoffs and lose in the 1st round...
…then you’ve got to have Steve Blake as your starting PG.
Yes! Yes! In the face!
thats rediculous
in that case they should wheel Go out there cuz it’s sticking to the plan
huck the fuskies
I could not agree more
rec.
The handling of our PG situation has been, by far, the number one thing making me believe that we need a coaching change.
"One of the bright spots of the young season has been rookie point guard Jonny Flynn, whose name sounds like he should be the lead character in a Broadway Musical. "What are you doing here, Jonny Flynn?" "Why I'm here to court trouble, and woo a girl, and build the most fantastical contraption the world has ever seen!" -- Dave, Game 7 Blazers versus Timberwolves preview
by BlazersOrBust on Dec 10, 2009 3:49 PM PST up reply actions
couldn't have said it better myself
However, I believe that Roy bears some responsibility for this as well. He’s clearly not making the necessary effort to play with Andre, not to mention he was responsible for some of the most reprehensible defense I have ever seen a Blazer play closing out against the Knicks’ shooters on Monday …
by kickbrass on Dec 10, 2009 4:43 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
There’s more in there JK I know it. spill it.
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out, burns out farms, and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
Head Czar of Amerika <--- Mortimer said so so there!!!
Yeah, I'm generally one of the last folks on the "blame the coach" bandwagon
because I really believe that even bad coaches know more about the game than I do. But I do think I know just plain stubborn obstinance when I see it, and I think I see it.
I would love to have Ben or someone else really ask Nate about his handling of the PG situation.
I had been a pretty solid Nate supporter until his handling of the PG situation this season.
I just find it absolutely incomprehensible that Nate continues to play Blake 30 minutes per game, when he is struggling so badly and when there are two attractive options on the bench.
Miller should be starting. Bayless should be getting 20 minutes.
Others will no doubt disagree, but IMO, Blake should be on the trading block. He does not fit in the team’s long range plans. He has an expiring contract which the team should not renew. The smart move is to trade him at the deadline. We need a better 4-5. Combine Blake with Trout, or with other assets, and get us another big man.
Whatever short term value Blake may of had has been mitigated by the injuries. Once everyone is healthy, this team has the talent to compete for a Championship. The one piece that is missing is a PG who can defend and who is enough of a legitimate threat to score to help take some of the pressure off of Roy. It is time to see if Bayless can fill that role.
I would gladly see the team loose a few extra games this year to find out if Bayless is going to develop into our long range answer. Given how poorly Blake has played so far, and how efficiently Bayless has scored, it is likely we would actually se more wins if Miller started, Bayless was the backup, and Blake was somewhere else.
by upper left corner on Dec 11, 2009 2:03 PM PST up reply actions
This has been posted before . . .
possibly by you. My question – Why would ANY team trade for Blake
(and for that matter, Outlaw) ? According to many posters, Blake is the
WORST (same with Outlaw). If the Blazers trade anybody, it should be Miller
since according to many he is a top 10 PG. Perhaps get a quality big man
back since GO’s future is in questions (According to many on this site)
Please explain ?
It's GO time !
Teams will only trade for Blake
if they are looking to cut salary, in general.
One possible exception might be Orlando. Blake would be effective in their offense at helping to spread the court, and if they have injury trouble at PG, he wouldn’t be a bad solution.
If Rudy comes back healthy before the trade deadline, I could see a trade of Miller for a solid big man. Jerryd is ready to at least be our backup PG. So we have three legitimate rotation players at PG.
#52
Just what I was thinking . . .
J. I just wanted the petulants to explain their Video Game GM thoughts.
" I just find it incomprehensible that Nate continues to play Blake . . . ",
and on and on. Not that I’m defending Blake, as he has been struggling compared
to last year, but he’s not the only one struggling. Smooth with 2 Rebounds against
Cleveland ??? Etc, Etc.
It's GO time !
100% agree with this.
It’s Jermaine O’neal all over again, I guess this is the year history keeps repeating itself (Not hating on Greg, Love GO’den Oden)
Let me see if I've got this right...
Do you think Bayless should play more, Ben?
I was born in '52, and I believe in #52. Hang in there, GO.
Play Him, sit Miller and/or Blake
niether of those guys get the job done, both are old and are not part of the future. It’s time Pritchard admits what a horrendous fit Miller is with this team and we move on.
This is Jack burton from the PorkChop Express and I'm talkin to whoever's out there.....
About all young players are fairly bad at using the pick and roll on offense and defending it on the other end
One team in our division has two: Westbrook and Durant. But they are improving at that with playing time, which is the main thing a young player needs. Will Bayless make dumb “rookie” mistakes when given more minutes? Sure he will, maybe some that cost us a game. But so do Blake (hard to believe he gets an “excellent” rating with his propensity to get beaten off the dribble or switched off picks and not able to rebound misses) and Miller (with his outside shooting that makes angels cry, though it’s not entirely his fault that he so often gets the ball late in the shot clock in a bad situation) even as established veterans. They also take less risks, especially Blake, which is good in some situations like protecting a lead but rather bad over an entire game or season when you just always have a player who isn’t “making things happen”.
Bayless can “make things happen”. As the sponsor of his basketball-reference page, I fully endorse the “Free B-Rex” motion :) Give him about the playing time Nic Batum got last year, either as a starter who gets subbed out quickly a la Nic (and Oden), or make him routinely the first backup on either PG or SG (while Rudy is out). And don’t take him out when he’s the hot hand in the game please.
by Norsktroll on Dec 10, 2009 3:38 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Nate’s reason for playing Blake is this silly idea of “spreading the floor” yet blake can’t hit the broad side of a backboard this year so just how is blake spreading the ball. I’d rather see someone drive it to the basket and shove it down their throats than all this dribbling going on. Soon nate will give him more time and then act like it was his original idea to try something different.
One part of me is so frustrated with the absurd minutes for
Blake that I no longer trust Nate or want him to coach the team,the other part says that getting to the all star break above .500 would be good enough to keep him for the rest of the season. Please KP trade Blake at the deadline,there are teams out there that want and need his expiring contract
by southern oregon on Dec 10, 2009 3:42 PM PST reply actions
Play the guy - we need something to cheer for
If Bayless has success it will be something fun to watch. It will take away the pain of thinking we will make a big run in the playoffs to losing Oden and co to injuries and now wondering if we will make the playoffs.
Every time Bayless dunks, gets a layup, hits a jumper or goes to the foul line we all have something to cheer about.
And what could be better at this point than seeing the oppressed bench guy that works his tail off succeed?
jerryd seems to be the solution
I have not been a Jerryd believer at all. However, too often I just look at the lineup the Blazers put on the floor and think “man, who scores for this group.” A lot of this is a function of Outlaw and Oden being out. But our inability to adapt and play a guy who’s scoring in bunches (per minute) at an efficient rate is really troubling.
Good post Ben
with all the firepower that we have lost to injury, and the presence of a number of “complimentary players” who demand major minutes on this team but don’t create shots for themselves or others, it’s nice to have a 3rd option who can get his own shot.
The numbers also confirm what many of us notice watching -
Blake doesn’t really do much of anything except miss shots. The Blazers ask their PG to dribble the ball across halfcourt, pass to Roy and sometimes Aldridge and then park themselves behind the three point line. Blake does a great job of the above, but has not hit the outside shot at all this year. If he’s not shooting well and is not a threat to drive to the rim (as opposed to the stanchion like he does now), then why is he out there?
Why not find out what Bayless can do?
I would trade Blake for a third string center and start Bayless. If it doesn’t work out, then start Miller and you’re no worse off than now.
Defense, friend, defense
Blake is missing lately but he is still out best 3-point shooter of the PG and he is needed for defense. Read Ben’s analysis again and find the weak link.
"I could almost fall asleep when he's got the ball," Demopoulos said of Roy. "That's how comfortable I feel with him. He always comes through."
Actually, I was at the Detroit game
And Blake doesn’t really do a great job of bringing the ball up the court…
Actually we have a third string pg already
Soon Patty Mills will be in the mix.
Portland could coast along with their superior talent and stay right with us. Now that Portland woke up, the hammer cometh down.
by Batumshakalaka on Dec 10, 2009 6:29 PM PST up reply actions
#4
bayless leaves over my dead body
Start Andre (in a 2 guard lineup)
"Good defense always beats bad offense."-Al Iannazzone, Yes Network
if you should strike Oden down he will become more powerful than you can possibly imagine
#52
by thomasikehara on Dec 10, 2009 3:51 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Can someone please send a link to this post to Nate and the rest of the coaching staff
Also include Paul Allen and KP.
It is time.
Play Bayless
Simple Question:
If Roy is the heart of the team, who is he comfortable with right now? Blake, and why? Because they’ve spent a lot of minutes on the floor together. Is Blake your PG of the future that will lead this team to the finals? Probably not. So, the answer is not just to upgrade at PG, it’s to get Roy as many minutes as possible with whoever that guy is. We’ve found that Roy isn’t a player who will step out on the floor with just anyone and do well.
In my opinion this Blake / Miller “rotation” will hurt the team in the long run because Roy is clearly only comfortable with Blake and not Miller or Bayless or Mills, the other 3 point guards on the roster. Blake is also not locked up for years like Roy so if he gets hurt (yeah, like that would ever happen!) or splits or gets traded our star is back to step one and rebuilding chemistry from scratch. The last thing we want is to start the season next year with Roy saying “Let’s just start 4 people, I don’t like ANY of our point guards!”
Once Rudy returns, the only way you can give Bayless 15-20 per night is to get rid of Andre Miller or reduce Fernandez’ minutes. You know we’re not gunna cut Rudy’s minutes once he’s back at full steam. So, trade Andre Miller? I’m down with that. Let JB be this team’s backup point guard and push Blake for his starting job.
"Sometimes that light at the end of the tunnel is a train."
-- Charles Barkley
trade blake
bayless leaves over my dead body
Start Andre (in a 2 guard lineup)
"Good defense always beats bad offense."-Al Iannazzone, Yes Network
if you should strike Oden down he will become more powerful than you can possibly imagine
#52
by thomasikehara on Dec 10, 2009 4:33 PM PST up reply actions
Here's my question.
Doesn’t it seem like Blake might look better on defense simply because he’s not given super tough assignments? Against the Hawks there was a stretch where Joe Johnson was killing Miller, but then again, is it really Miller’s fault that he has to guard Joe freaking Johnson?
In a small lineup Bayless and Miller are getting the tougher assignments. Blake is spending a lot of time with Roy, Webster, and Miller, all three of which are guarding bigger guys than he does. Do his defensive numbers look good simply because of who he’s guarding?
by Nick Van Excellent on Dec 10, 2009 3:58 PM PST reply actions
Blake is still the starter
meaning that he is spending more minutes guarding opposing team’s starters. He may draw the easiest assignment of the 1, 2 or 3, but it’s still a starter vs. a bench player.
That may be true to an extent.
Except we had a three guard lineup for almost half our games. Miller has been in the starting lineup a ton.
Against the Hawks Blake was guarding Bibby, which is not a tough cover at all, while Miller had Johnson and Roy had Marvin Williams.
Against the Grizzlies Blake had Conley, who’s their last offensive option, while Miller was checking Mayo for stretches and Roy had Rudy Gay.
It just seems like Blake is getting hidden defensively especially when they run multiple point guards.
by Nick Van Excellent on Dec 10, 2009 6:59 PM PST up reply actions
You are correct.
Particularly the “post up defense” number. Steve may chase a little better over time, but for one possession at the end of the game I would take Miller every time. Also there is an issue of some sort with Blake’s rating with picks—he was constantly switching onto David Lee the other night which put our defense in scramble mode—usually ending with an open three—time after time.
#52
oh my
yes!
i have to go do laundry, but i can’t wait to get home and read this.
thanks, ben!
I've never been on the Bayless bandwagon much....
But I have to admit that he should absolutely be getting more time at the expense of the inferior players in front of him.
Every time Blake starts an Angel loses its wings.
by senormateo on Dec 10, 2009 4:01 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
Why no decision?
I wonder if Bayless hasn’t gotten more time because it would also force a decision between Miller and Blake. The minutes have to come from somewhere and since it’s harder to justify taking them from Miller it would necessarily mean they come from Blake. Rather than do that Nate maintains the status quo.
right now they don't
Bayless could play 24 minutes a game at the 2 guard while Miller and Blake continue to split time at the point guard. But instead, we are playing Miller and Blake together FAR too much (16 minutes against Indiana). Roy is going to play half his minutes at the 3 anyway, due to injuries and Webster’s complete lack of production, so if you have 20-30 minutes a game available at the 2 guard spot, wouldn’t you rather see that go to Bayless rather than Blake?
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
Great work Ben!
I am fully convinced #4 needs more playing time. Especially after Rudy went down. I mean why not? It is pretty clear he is NOT an inferior option to Miller or Blake. As a fan, we still like to watch great playmakers. Up until now, I was pretty stoked to watch Greg dominate and always praying for the next crowd-lifting play from Rudy. Outlaw gets pretty vicious dunks once in a while (as does Webster). Miller has his moments and obviously B-Roy is B-Roy but we really have no other crowd-pleaser other than Rex and his ferocious dunks (that near miss last night would have been incredible BTW)…
MOAR REX!
Free Bayless!
More #4!
Let's do it for the big man!...and Rudy!....and Nic!...and, uh, Trout, Pendy, Patty, Mo, Mr. Allen, and Nate!
Rehab With Us
But does he "scrap"?
All these “numbers” are impressive, and we all like “efficiency” and “accuracy”, but we need scrappy players who are willing to scrapify at any moment. Especially now that we are the Ailblazers. We need more scrapping than ever. Points and stuff are not that relevant right now.
by BlazerDavid on Dec 10, 2009 4:31 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
mcmillian has praised bayless' scrappy scrappyiness
bayless leaves over my dead body
Start Andre (in a 2 guard lineup)
"Good defense always beats bad offense."-Al Iannazzone, Yes Network
if you should strike Oden down he will become more powerful than you can possibly imagine
#52
by thomasikehara on Dec 10, 2009 4:35 PM PST up reply actions
He scraps like scrappy-doo.
And Blake kinda looks like shaggy.
I am Spartacus and I approved this message
by EngineerScotty on Dec 10, 2009 4:39 PM PST up reply actions
Watching the Knicks game the other day
I saw it at MSG and despite it being an awful, awful game, Bayless really impressed me. He was basically the only Blazer who showed up to play that night. I really hope that he gets some more time to shine.
I think Bayless suffers from a very similar thing to Miller
And that is compatibility with Roy. LIke Miller, Bayless does not spread the floor with his shooting, and his game is driving the lane, which is what Roy does, or at least likes it clear for his thing.
If we recognize that Bayless is really more of a 2 guard in playing style, it’s not surprising there aren’t that many minutes for him if Roy is playing 32+ a game.
That sounds about right to me
Out of the three PGs (if we include Bayless there, instead of at the SG, where I think he belongs), Blake is the only outside shooter—not much of one this season, granted, but more of a long-range threat than Dre or Bayless. And then there’s the question of assists.
I wouldn’t mind seeing Bayless get more minutes these days because of the intensity he brings, but when he plays with Roy in the game, we do end up with some awfully crowded lanes.
New offense:
Let Roy and Bayless take turns playing 1 on 1 the whole game. Seriously, it will be better than what we’ve seen recently.
Disclaimer: everything I know about basketball I learned on Blazersedge.
Maybe it's the scheme?
If the entire offense is built around having a PG who can hit the open 3 on the kick-out do we blame KP for building a roster where Blake is the “best fit” or the coaching staff for not adjusting the strategy to the players they have?
Why can’t Roy kick out to Bayless who drives inside now that Roy has shifted the defense to himself? Why can’t Roy drive inside off the pick and roll instead of the iso?
As the young guys get better and the roster grows in experience will the offense adjust to fit them, or will Bayless never get to play regardless of his growth because our offense and scheme are stuck in 2007?
by JonathanPDX on Dec 10, 2009 6:37 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
this would be true IF Roy was playing 32+ a game at the 2 guard spot
which as of now, he isn’t. We are playing Blake and Miller together for 15-20 a night right now – why not give most of those minutes to Bayless instead?
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
sigh
I guess I will have to reluctantly join Team Bayless as well. I was waiting for him to actually show signs of good play, and he has done exactly that this year. Although, it is still worth noting that he is having success playing mainly the 2 guard position, which has always been a concern for me. He has improved as a playmaker though, I am sure that will continue. He doesn’t need to be Steve Nash to play next to Roy, that is for sure….
RUDY > MJ
#52
(Christopher Walken) as "the Bruce Dickinson"
“Guess what?! I got a fever, and the only prescription… is more Bayless!!!!”
As one of the charter members of the Team Bayless, this brings a smile to my face. I am never one bring up Jermaine ONeal biut I know that if we let Bayless go without giving him a good run we will regret it.
by SpyderRyder on Dec 10, 2009 5:08 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Thank you for this post !!!!
Did you read this post and our comments, Nate?
When will you realise the ability and potential and Jerryd Bayless?
When will you admit that Blake shouldn’t be a starter?
Brilliant piece, Ben.
I’m getting really damned sick of Steve Blake.
Start Miller, sub Rex, trade Blake.
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
by timbo on Dec 10, 2009 5:51 PM PST reply actions 6 recs
If we use this opportunity to give bayless a lot of minutes, it will be a season
well spent and make decisions in the future much easier to make.
Great piece Ben. Unfortunately it is pointless. I am now convinced Nate ( and company ) will NEVER not play Steve Blake major minutes.
What more does he have to do to prove that he is not a starting caliber PG? Some games it’s just simply unbelievable that he plays so many minutes. I don’t think there’s anything that can happen short of a trade or injury that will supplant Blake, and get Bayless ( and Miller for that matter ) more minutes.
Oden fan for life
thats why timbo's call to trade blake is key. pritichard can stop him from blaking it up with one simple trade.
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
"Blaking it up"? Possible definitions:
1. driving into the lanes only to pull out again with not even a credible threat of putting up a shot or a shovel pass to a big guy.
2. Ability to turn 3-on-1 and 4-on-2 fast breaks into jumpers (at best) or turnovers.
3. Inability to pass into an offensive player with deep post position (see: Oden, Greg)
4. Passing the ball to a teammate with less than 2 seconds left on the shot clock (see: Pass, Flaming bag)
5. Missing 5 three-pointers in a row until hitting the one crucial three with 2 minutes left in the game which convinces announcers and journalist to vindicate him for the 5 threes that he missed.
Seems like I am missing something. Hmm…
52 + 88 = 140% better team.
by xedubx on Dec 10, 2009 7:22 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
perfect
5 (alternate): Committing 3 consecutive crucial, panic-stricken, atrocious turnovers only to hit a crucial three with 2 minutes left in the game which convinces announcers and journalist to vindicate him for almost singlehandedly losing the game to begin with. (note – the crucial three will NEVER be to tie or take away a lead, only to pad a small lead that should have been much larger if the turnovers hadn’t been committed earlier)
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
1 (alternate).
Driving and stopping directly under the basket with no hope of a shot and no hope of an interior pass as the defense stays home.
2 additional
or shot clock expiring, fade away, defended shots
"Better, not good, but better." - Herb Brooks
Despite all the talk about Andre Miller as a defensive upgrade over Blake — including talk from me on that subject — the numbers through 22 games don’t support that assertion. Miller has been slightly better than Bayless but noticeably worse than Blake.
Both Blake and Miller enjoy solid success across most categories. Blake is “Excellent” in pick and rolls, “Good” in isolation, and “Excellent” against spot-up shooters.
I am very hesitant to give any credence to a metric that rates Steve Blake as an “Excellent” pick and roll defender, as well as “good” when isolated. My eyes see something much different. I also wonder how much playing Oden could have skewed those numbers…
RUDY > MJ
#52
I'm kinda curious to see how they rate Roy..
Since he has been downright terrible on pick and roll D this year, at least to my eyes. At least Blake puts up a fight once in a while. Roy is just coasting on D.
52 + 88 = 140% better team.
Blake IS a good defender
While I’m firmly in both the “play Bayless” and “trade Blake” camps, I’m not sure why everyone here seems convinced that Blake is a bad defender. He’s not. He’s an excellent team defender who knows where to be, when to rotate, when to help, etc. He has trouble staying in front of fast PGs, but so does virtually every other guard in the league. He more than makes up for this with his defensive IQ and effort. The dude is a good defensive point guard.
His problem is offensive. He’s an incredibly limited offensive player. He can hit open threes at a decent rate (usually) and he’s not turnover prone in half court, but that’s about it. He’s really bad at penetrating or running the pick and roll. He’s really bad in transition, and his passing ability and court vision are average at best. The reason Bayless and Miller need to play more is that they both contribute much more on offense.
www.ripcitydispatch.com
I don't think he is a good defender at all.
I think the numbers are skewed based upon who he’s guarding, which is usually the easiest assignment out of everyone on the court.
You know he’s not a great defender when the coaching staff chooses to put Blake on Bibby and Miller on Joe Johnson.
by Nick Van Excellent on Dec 11, 2009 6:44 AM PST up reply actions
He's defended some good point guards this year.
Johnny Flynn, Russel Westbrook (I think Miller checked Sefolosha), Devon Harris, Aaron Brooks, Chauncey Billups, Chris Paul (for awhile and did a good job on him before Paul hurt his ankle), and Deron Williams. Those guys are tough covers.
I agree that Miller’s stats are skewed because of the 3 guard lineup, but I don’t see how you can argue that Blake is a bad defender because he guarded Bibby rather than Johnson. MIller’s stronger than Blake, so Johnson would be less likely to post them up all game. Most good points these days are more quick than strong though, so a point guard’s inability to guard a guy like Joe Johnson doesn’t say much about how he guards another point guard. Besides, most NBA players can’t guard Joe Johnson.
That said, there is no reason not to give Bayless more floor time for his develop since the Blazers’ chances of making a serious run this year vanished with Oden going down.
Keep your expectations low and you won't be disappointed.
i was really excited about these numbers....
until i got to the part where they said steve blake is "excellent’ in pick and rolls and overall rates “excellent” on defense. andre miller is apparently also “good” on defense and an “excellent” isloation defender.
i do think advanced statistics are much better than many of the things that have been relied on in the past but i just can’t get behind steve blake as an excellent defender and andre miller as good. i don’t buy either of those things and it would take a lot to convince me otherwise.
i’m all for more bayless mind you.
can you just delete the part about andre and steve being real good defenders?
it's easy to be a good PP defender
when the guard in the PP simply has to watch the big score at the bucket
by blacknoiseNW on Dec 10, 2009 7:12 PM PST up reply actions
check below...
for some of my comments about this. totally agree with you.
hey Ben, great work! but maybe more research on Blake's defense please?
I absolutely am in Bayless’ camp and glad to see Synergy’s report basically support that.
However we can’t cherry-pick the data we want, if we need Synergy to back us up, then we have to acknowledge the fact that Blake is an “excellent” defender. THAT’s what make me hesitate.
I remember in Synergy the user can bring up categorized game clips showing how a player does under a particular scheme. Ben, maybe you can bring up as many Blake’s overall defensive (or just his pick-and-roll defense) video clips as possible and tell us how Synergy rates those and what you think?
Come on Ben! Team Bayless need their captain to clear up this Blake-as-excellent-defender mystery :)
Wouldn't you have to do this for everybody involved in the discussion?
You’re saying you’d like to examine and refute one finding that you aren’t inclined to agree with yet don’t see the need to scrutinize findings that are in line with your preconceived notions. That’s not good science. There is enough data to support the notion that Bayless should play more. Why suggest that someone resort to intellectual dishonesty?
Keep your expectations low and you won't be disappointed.
Get this to the oregonian
Keep the faith.
by fajunga on Dec 10, 2009 6:36 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
I'm sold
J-Bay’s pull up jumper is ready for starting duty. I’m watching Rondo kill right now on TV without taking a three. The fact is, this team has enough shooting to augment a backcourt of Roy/Bayless most of the time. Besides, you don’t have to take a 3 every other possession.
Also, this year needs to be about finding out what J-Bay and Patty can do. Every other position seems settled for next season.
I'm just not crazy about player nick names...
by Hipster Olympic Team! on Dec 10, 2009 6:43 PM PST reply actions
That is where I am at as well...
I don’t hate Steve Blake, I hate how many zaching minutes he gets…
RUDY > MJ
#52
He's not pretty enough to be a cheerleader....
but it should be his majority contribution…
by blacknoiseNW on Dec 10, 2009 7:14 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, Steve is not the problem, it is how he is used
Has Steve demanded to be a starter ?
Has Steve sulked about not enough playing time ?
Has Steve asked for a trade ?
I don’t think so.
He is playing when called by the coach… who controls lineups and playing time.
I am just waiting for the Nate pain to go away.
"Travis went all wang-dang diddly wubba SPROING wow-wow on everybody " Dave's recap, season opener
so do I, he'd make a good neighbor
and his wife is hot
"Better, not good, but better." - Herb Brooks
I'd love to see that "PPP" stat illuminated a bit more
Blake was playing the most minutes with Oden in there. I mean, that helps.
Also, is J-Bay checking PGs? It seems like he is in there as the 2 most of the time.
Regardless, I’m so sick of lineups with Blake and Miller in there at the same time. It’s just so silly. Play Blake/Roy and Miller/Bayless, for crying out loud…
I'm just not crazy about player nick names...
by Hipster Olympic Team! on Dec 10, 2009 7:01 PM PST reply actions
how about a little Bayless at the point?
Bayless/Roy = better backcourt than Blake/Miller, Blake/Bayless, or Miller/Bayless. Much, much better, as a matter of fact.
by blacknoiseNW on Dec 10, 2009 7:16 PM PST up reply actions
Miller/Roy > all of those
And what the heck is Wester’s problem. If he was the shooter everyone thinks he is, having Miller on the court with Roy would be less of an issue.
#52
All I can say is THANK YOU and FINALLY!!!!
It’s about time someone spoke up for Bayless because he’s flat out been the most consistent point guard for the Blazers this year in spite of being given inconsistent and perplexingly few minutes. I’ve been saying for years that Nate has an obsession with the “pure” point guard, but I don’t think that’s what this team needs since we seem to do better when Roy controls the rock for a majority of the game anyway, just like you see with the Kobe’s and LeBron’s of the world. That’s why I continue to push for a 3 guard rotation of Rudy, Roy, and Bayless. If Roy needs to play with someone that can spread the floor, Rudy does that perfectly, then bring in Bayless to spell either Rudy or Roy….Also, as for Bayless’s defense, yeah, he fouls too much, and you know why? He’s one of the few people actually PLAYING defense and exerting energy on the defensive end rather than just coasting. His D is agressive, physical, and he is pretty much the only guard the Blazers have that has the lateral quickness to move with Deron William, Chris Paul, Aaron Brooks, Rondo, etc.
Play him or trade him
He’s a wasted asset on the bench.
Jarrett Jack didn't find success after leaving the Blazers
and Sergio’s averaged 14.1 minutes per game this season.
Just sayin’
Yes he did.
He earned himself a nice contract. He was probably doing the same things, but his usage went up along with his points and assists.
by Nick Van Excellent on Dec 10, 2009 7:28 PM PST up reply actions
Jarrett’s numbers in Indiana went up 6 per game compared to his last year in Portland (and back to his Sophomore levels), while most of his statistics stayed stable. It was enough to get himself a nice new contract. This year in Toronto his scoring has dropped a little (Bosh and Calderon usually are responsible for that, along with Hedo and Bargnani), but his assists are higher than ever.
Sergio was in a severe slump at the beginning of the year unable to crack the rotation, but in the last few weeks he is turning it up with some very nice performances. It’s his best chance to stay in the league, he wouldn’t have gotten that chance in Portland.
but check out Sergio's last three games
I don’t think it’s an upward trajectory in minutes or points.
well, okay
if success is defined as “have a good contract year” and then play worse, with fewer minutes, than you did in 06-07 in Portland, as finding success after leaving the Blazers, then you are both right. And he got paid, that’s clearly most important.
(I say this as a huge JJ fan, I just think he’s not really a smashing example of someone who languished in Portland, and thrived away from Portland is all).
Sergio is averaging 6.6 ppg, Blake 7.5
Sergio gets 14mpg, Blake gets 30. One player is in the nba for his shooting, one is here for his passing. Sergio is outplaying Blake at his own game, and Blake doesnt stand a chance against Sergio on the playmaking side of things. Its kind of sad really, if that doesn’t illustrate how awful Blake has been, nothing will. Just in case, here are their rough per 36 minute stats:
Sergio – 17 points, 7.5 assists, 3.7 rebounds, 2.4 steals, 3.3 turnovers. 48%fg, 48%3pt PER 20.4
Blake – 9 points, 4.8 assists, 3.1 rebounds, .8 steals, 1.7 turnovers, 38%fg, 37%3pt PER 9.9
Your point that Sergio’s 240 minutes is a small sample size remains. It is. Imagine how bad he would have to play over the next 20 games for his stats to simply be equal to Blakes on a per 36 basis. Blake deserves 10-15 minutes per game at the most….
RUDY > MJ
#52
I should say
I’m not even vaguely on team Blake. And I would love to see Bayless get a few more minutes.
I just thought Ben’s examples were a little odd. Sergio didn’t get minutes in Portland and he doesn’t get minutes in Sacramento. That’s probably not what Bayless is hoping for.
The Bayless issue could easily be the "get out of town" ticket for McMillan....
Pritchard is on the record (recently) gushing about Bayless. Pritchard is a statistical disciple – and Bayless’ performance will not be overlooked by executive management.
Where it becomes an issue is whether McMillan adapts to the knowledge at hand and gets his best players on the floor in positions to succeed.
If he ignores statistical evidence and overplays his chemistry management, he will be gone. He isn’t Pritchard’s coach – and this could be time we see a true conflict in philosophy.
by blacknoiseNW on Dec 10, 2009 7:24 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Truth!
A lot of reasons to be upset w/ McMillan but his PG handling and “un-development” of same are going to cost him his job.
Every year of his reign here in Portland—every single year!—has exhibited acrimony and befuddlement over the point guard rotation. Every year!
I am beyond tired at having to worry about who is going to play PG.
I was watching the Houston game and lamenting over Addelman. If Rick A were coaching this team, is there any doubt whatsoever that Bayless would be streaking off the bench for 20-30min each game (reminiscent of Robert Pack and Rod Strickland)? Is there any doubt that Sergio would’ve gotten similar minutes last year?
Part of cheering for the team is understanding what’s going on… even if it’s going badly. I can’t stand the incomprehensible rotations—particularly at point guard—and I don’t think KP and Allen can much longer either.
Buck Williams for the hall of fame
Nice piece Ben
It’s one thing to want Bayless to play because it’d be more fun, it’s another to show unbiased statistical analysis to support the call for more Bayless.
Last year, it’d be because Bayless is fun. This year, one can argue he has earned it in his limited minutes, and with all of our injuries making it so PERHAPS a title isn’t being won by us this year MAYBE, it makes sense to develop the kid on the court. Similar to what we do with Oden.
Best of all, since his play has earned him more minutes, you ain’t just handing minutes to him for no good reason… or signaling a move to not care about this season. I do not want us to tank, I want the players to earn their minutes. He has earned more minutes.
I admit, even if Bayless hadn’t been playing well, I’d be calling for him to play more since this year hasn’t exactly gone well. It just makes that much more sense since he’s showing he can do what we want him to do.
Mortimer
#52
Maybe Nate's looking at
Plus/Minus.
I know it’s not a great measuring stick,but…
Miller +105 in his 618 minutes
Blake +104 in his 683 minutes
Bayless -6 in his 165 minutes.
Bayless has spent about 80 minutes w/either Blake or Miller and is +6 in those minutes.
Suggests he’s a -12 in his solo 85 minutes as the PG.(Note that almost 1/2 of Bayless’ minutes are w/another PG.)
On the other hand,Bayless is getting minutes as if he was being brought along by Nate.
Rookie season he sits and learns and gets some spot minutes.
Second season he starts season getting a a nice shift in First Half,and depending on performance gets some Second Half run. First half of season is about learning on court and applying lessons learned in practice. By Second half of season he should be rotation player,possibly taking over back-up role.
Third season he is at minimum the back-up,w/the ability,knowledge and confidence to challenge for the starting spot.
Well done - nice addition to the discussion
"I could almost fall asleep when he's got the ball," Demopoulos said of Roy. "That's how comfortable I feel with him. He always comes through."
I'm gonna point/counterpoint myself
Point: If you took away Bayless’ ability to catapult himself into the lane and chuck a brick into the bottom of the rim while getting fouled, would he be able to make the D-league? Or your middle school yeam?
Counterpoint: Yeah, but he DOES have that ability. That’s like saying if you took away Kapono’s ability to shoot threes, would he still be in the league? It doesn’t matter, because he can!
Personally, I don’t think the ability to get fouled is enough talent to warrant a ton of time, but that’s just me.
#52
I am no Bayless fan(I should just put that in my sig at this point..)
But he doesnt just get to the rim, he finishes as well. He is 2nd on the team at creating shots at the rim/fouls behind only Roy IMO….
RUDY > MJ
#52
your counterpoint is right.
Bayless has a chance to be an extremely efficient scorer because of his ability to get to the rim and draw and convert FTs. Indeed, a pretty good statistical case can be made that he’s been our most efficient offensive player this year.
#52
They could take it away by overloading or even doubling on him. But then you get killed by Roy, or Aldridge who are open. So you don’t, and risk to give up points to him. I would agree that someone in a lineup with him needs to be a better outside shooter, but at the moment nobody really is great. Even Roy has gotten away again from taking many threes after initially it looked like he had added that to his arsenal.
for what its worth, Bayless has shot the ball much better than Blake on long twos according to the NBA hotspots.
Bayless certainly needs to improve his 3 ball, but his form on jumpers looks good and he ought to be able to extend his range. Hopefuly.
#52
Why not? That's huge and nobody besides Roy can do it consistently.
You get two uncontested shots or a chance for a 3 point play. You take opponents out of the game, hopefully bigs, and make them tentative when they’re in. I’ll take that over a jump shot any day.
Keep your expectations low and you won't be disappointed.
hmmm
Blake is “Excellent” in pick and rolls (on defense)
To this I say – a great example of where statistics lie. Watch the games and say with a straight face that Blake is an "excellent’ defender on the pick and roll. hah.
Secondly, I’ll say what I’ve been saying since day one of the season. Even now, down 3 wings, there is no normal circumstance where I can advocate playing Miller and Blake at the same time for huge minutes – yet that’s precisely what we do. If you are going to go 3-guard, make Bayless one of them. At this point, let’s evaluate what we have in Bayless by giving him a lot more run – and yes, most of it will come at the 2 guard for now. Thus, I would divide up the minutes thusly at this point:
PG – Miller 28, Blake 20
SG – Roy 16, Bayless 24, Blake 8
SF – Webster 24, Roy 24
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
I disagree
The more I watch Blake, the more convinced I am that actually is pretty good at defending the pick and roll. The guard’s job is to do what he can to break through or get around the pick. That’s about all they can do. The hard part belongs to the big, who has to “show” enough to block penetration and the easy shot while (preferably) retreating to cover the rolling screener. When I didn’t really appreciate until the Knick game the other night is how bad Joel Przybilla is at this. Greg Oden is infinitely better. Joel ALWAYS switches on the screen and ends up guarding the guard out on the perimeter while Blake or Miller is stuck defending a big in the post.
I guess another way of saying this is that when you’re getting burned on the pick and roll, it’s more often the bigs fault, not the guard. Blake seems to do a pretty go job doing his job in these situations. He can’t do the big’s job.
www.ripcitydispatch.com
Are you kidding?
The more I watch Blake on the pick and roll, the more infuriated I get. He’s been a bit better the last two games because he’s playing against awful pick-and-roll teams in NY and Indiana.
There’s just no way that Blake is the best pick-and-roll defender at PG on this team. If you’ve ever played a lick of organized ball, you quickly recognize how bad he is there, and how much better Bayless is defending the pick and roll.
I haven’t read every post here, but has anyone talked about what a PG must do to defend the pick-and-roll well? Here are a few thoughts:
1. Don’t get picked. Slip over it, fight through. Blake can rarely do this. I’ve seen him actually chasing the play from behind both the picker and the G.
2. Make the big do something he doesn’t want to do, if you get picked. Blake never pressures that big.
3. Rotate to pick up the guy who is picking up for your defense. Blake’s not good here because he’s smaller than anyone he’s going to rotate to.
4. Cut off ball to prevent pick and roll. Blake rarely tries this because the PG can then blow by him and force the defense to rotate.
5. Trap the ball. Blazers don’t try this very often, and Blake is rarely in position to try this because he goes under the pick all the time.
So, if it's not clear:
It’s not always Blake’s guy who is scoring, or even the guy setting the pick. His poor pick and roll defense is often responsible for guys getting open looks all over the floor.
If Brandon ever realized that this is why he is coasting, tired, to try to pick up shooters like Wilson Chandler, he wouldn’t object to Blake playing less.
Roy constantly helps down when teams play the PR
then he has to try and bounce out to cover the kick out pass. It isn’t just Roy, of course – but he has had his hands full this season trying to cover shooters outside and play help defense inside.
I agree that it takes a lot of energy to try and follow a pass from the paint to the three point line and still be in position if the shooter has the ability to put the ball on the floor. Not many defenders will look good trying to stop penetration while running at the shooter.
by blacknoiseNW on Dec 11, 2009 9:49 AM PST up reply actions
Before Rudy got hurt...
I really wondered what he was thinking as Blake got his minutes at the 2 spot. Now, I have to wonder what Bayless is thinking….
RUDY > MJ
#52
we didn't have to wonder about Rudy
he was PC about it, but he publicly commented on how Blake getting minutes at the 2 ate into his playing time. Not exactly mutiny – but definitely an indicator that he wasn’t pleased.
by blacknoiseNW on Dec 10, 2009 11:17 PM PST up reply actions
I'm a Bayless believer
but the Blake criticism on this site is all out of proportion, especially in regard to his defense.
Blake is not an all-world defender. But Synergy has focused on Blake on every single defensive play, and rates him excellent. Nobody ranting on this board about Blake’s defense has watched him on every single play, and if they did, they wouldn’t be unbiased like Synergy is.
Does that mean Synergy is right and Blake is an excellent defender? Well, the Miami fans who want him think so, but I’m not prepared to give him the label “excellent” based on these guys alone. But if the guys who focus on him on every single play say that he’s excellent, I’m not prepared to throw that away and say he’s horrible. I see a pretty decent defender out there.
Well, I SAW a very good defender out there with Greg, because he knew how to take advantage of the help Greg provided. So did Andre. Greg made both of these guys better defenders, and that’s a big part of why our defensive performance was so good with them as the starting backcourt. The numbers don’t lie.
Blake has made more turnovers this year, and shot poorly. I see no justification for playing him 40 minutes. If I were coaching (thankfully I’m not), I doubt I’d play him more than 20, maybe 25. But the Blake hate is overstated and gets tiresome.
Now, on to Bayless. Ben, you’re taking the small sample size both ways. On pick and roll defense, for instance, you say that last year proves that Bayless is decent, and so if he just gets more minutes, he’ll improve, returning to last year’s level. In other words, the small sample size proves nothing. On other things, you say this year’s data (small sample size) proves Jerryd has taken significant steps forward.
I think you are right that he has progressed significantly. Both the data and my eyes tell me that, and his decision making has been good. He isn’t forcing a lot of things, and despite what some people claim, he is making some really nice passes. Jerryd is the kind of player who makes things happen, and that will always result in mistakes, but also disrupt the other team.
However, I suspect his better pick and roll defense last year was largely a function of the fact that much of his PT was in garbage time. He’s getting more minutes that count this year, and as a result being attacked. He’s been scouted, and opponents know that one of the most effective things you can do against a player who is very aggressive on defense is to run him into a pick. So he has a defensive weakness that is being exposed right now, and he hasn’t adjusted.
#52
by jscot on Dec 10, 2009 10:45 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
and that’s a big part of why our defensive performance was so good with them as the starting backcourt. The numbers don’t lie.
actually, the numbers can lie in a small sample size. Teams were missing a ridiculous amount of threes against us, far below their season average. We can’t put that solely on good defense. There was a lot of luck involved.
get well soon, big guy.
#52
by Cablinasian on Dec 10, 2009 11:33 PM PST up reply actions
Add two made threes for the opponent in each of those games
and you still have good defensive numbers.
#52
in a span that saw us play some of the worst offensive teams in the league.
get well soon, big guy.
#52
We still were holding them
well under their offensive averages.
Memphis was a very high scoring team and we shut them down.
We held Atlanta way under their scoring average.
I don’t get the unwillingness to acknowledge the defensive effectiveness of that lineup until they ran into G.S. As ugly as it was, as much as they struggled offensively at times, our defense was very, very effective in the first eight games we used it.
I hated that lineup, and I think it would have been better both offensively and defensively with Rudy in Blake’s place. But that doesn’t change the facts as to what was being done well.
#52
The Blake hate
It’s being trumpeted right now because he’s playing way too much, and there is a great young player sitting too much behind him.
What do you expect?
the Blake hate is predicated on two things
1) Blake starting over the far superior Miller, and getting more PT at PG than Miller
2) Blake seeing ANY minutes at the 2 guard at all, given the much superior options of Rudy (pre-injury), and Bayless (now).
If Blake were playing 20-25 minutes a game backing up Miller at PG, and almost never playing the 2-guard spot, then there would be NO Blake hate at all
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
No, if Blake were playing any more than 12 mpg there would be hate right now
because he’s turning the ball over more than last year, his shooting is struggling, and he doesn’t do the fan favorite things like the exciting pass (Miller) or the explosive play (Bayless).
I don’t like Blake at the 2, either. Never did. It has worked for us defensively because both he and Miller have enough quickness and size to be reasonably able to defend 2s, and few teams run a lot of plays posting up their 2s, so the size disadvantage hasn’t killed us (having Oden appear from the other side to erase a shot on the few post-ups that happened helped a lot, too).
If we run Blake at the 2 in the playoffs, the opponent will have plenty of time to game plan for it, they will post their 2 all game, and we’ll get absolutely murdered by that lineup. But one game against us isn’t enough for a team to justify messing with their offense to exploit it that much, so in the regular season, we’ll survive with it.
But I would very much prefer Bayless at the 2, and Rudy when he comes back.
#52
What do I expect?
Intelligent responses to such things, I suppose. Silly me.
The intelligent thing is not to hate the player, but to disagree with the coach.
The intelligent thing is NOT to exaggerate the player’s weaknesses and flaws, and deny his strengths. The intelligent thing is to recognize that exaggerating his weaknesses and deny his strengths just discredits the critic.
No matter what Bedgers think, the coaches know that Blake is a decent defender. They look at the film, they get advanced stats like this, and they know. They know his weaknesses as a defender, but they know he isn’t horrible.
So when they hear that some reporter or some guy on the Internet is saying Blake is abominable on defense, they immediately laugh inside and say, “Idiots. They don’t know what they are talking about.” Conversation over.
I expect (foolishly, I suppose) a productive conversation to consist of two or more people at least trying to take a balanced approach to the topic, rather than just ranting for the pleasure of reading your own words.
#52
So if I were to buy that Blake is a decent defender, as you say....
Do you think that makes up for his horrid offensive production? I think his play so far has earned him about 15 mpg. I dont blame blake, I blame the coaching staff for that…
RUDY > MJ
#52
Again, "horrid" is over the top
and of little profit to a discussion.
Blake knows and runs the offensive schemes, he is almost always where he is supposed to be, even this year his turnovers are low, his assist to TO ratio is pretty decent, and he’s shooting a respectable 3 point percentage.
He’s not having a good year, and I would not be giving him the minutes he is getting. But he isn’t really horrid at anything. Unfortunately, he doesn’t excel at anything this year, either. Last year, he excelled at taking care of the ball (very low turnovers) and three point shooting. This year, he is simply adequate at those things — hard to justify 35-40 mpg when more productive players are sitting.
#52
Tilting at windmills.
Something like 5 games into the season and there’s a post arguing that Bayless is the most efficient Blazer and among elite players in the league. (He gets less than 10 minutes a game, no?) Now, there’s a study that finds Blake actually has redeeming qualities as a player other than shooting, as you argue. Blake gets plenty of minutes (36 or something, right?), more than he should at this point, IMO. Then people try to shoot holes in the study based on sample size.
People, myself included, are biased. They see what they want to see. It’s an echo chamber in here, and some people are resorting to intellectually dishonest arguments, ignoring statistical evidence that doesn’t fall in line with their hypotheses while cherry-picking the stuff that supports them. They exaggerate the flaws in his game. Then it gets personal: since the coaching staff likes things that Blake does on the floor and gives him a lot of minutes, they turn their ire toward Blake as though it’s his decision. They get personal, insulting the way he looks, and some people wish him harm. One poster put up a video of him missing a dunk in college. They want to make him look bad. Why? Dunno. I have yet to hear anything bad about his character; he’s not Bonzi Wells. Yes, he’s not the greatest player, but all he does is work hard on the offseason and puts out his best effort to help the team without complaint. Honest critiques of his game are fair and warranted, but it gets to the point where people get so vitriolic in their attacks that they’re not acting like fans.
Keep your expectations low and you won't be disappointed.
Wonder if Jerryd reads these posts?
And pulls his hair out (or what he could pull out) since even the fans can see he’s better than Blake?
For someone as ambitious as he is, it must be maddening to see your draft mates getting burn and being successful while he’s still rotting on the bench. A player needs to grow and learn from his mistakes, otherwise how is he gonna get better?
I think Nate does this on purpose to show the fans that he knows better than all us. He seems to do the exact opposite of what the fans think. You want me to start Miller? Think I’ll start Blake instead… You want more Bayless? Think Blake deserves those minutes more… You want me to keep Greg in even with 2 fouls? No, etc etc….
by Spider99 on Dec 10, 2009 11:43 PM PST via mobile reply actions
I think Nate does this on purpose
because he thinks it will help win the games.
Nate does not lose games just to alienate the fans.
#52
I don't care what the numbers say:
There is NO WAY that Blake defends the pick and roll better than Bayless.
I love the numbers. They’re important. But they need to supplement, not serve as emperical evidence. Bayless doesn’t get the minutes to be rated on this, and Miller is better at defending the pick and roll than Bayless, too. It’s easy to see this if you’ve ever coached defense or been coached on how to play it.
Anyway, I so, so appreciate this post and this work, Ben. Bayless should be getting more run, and Blake should be playing much, much less. I tend to trust coaches—especially Nate—more than a lot of fans, but not now. Not on this. They need to get this right. He’s losing some of our trust and support.
The Future!!!
We won’t win the championship this year, so we should focus on our young players and let htem develop. However, our coaches don’t know how to develop young players and always limit their playing time, such as GO, Rudy and Bayless. Blazers future is dark with Nate McMillan.
Very good analysis, but...
be careful when you start projecting numbers out to 36 minutes per game. If I come in for 1 minute, get the ball, drive to the rim, make a shot and get fouled, and drain the FT, I have 3 points. Projected to 36 minutes, I’m scoring 108 ppg! Wow, sign me up, KP!
Similarly, you argue that he is the best guard on the team from 17 feet to the 3 point line. But this may be due to relatively limited number of attempts. If I take 2 3 point shots, and hit 1 of them, are you going to project that I will hit 50% of my shots from that distance if I take 20 shots?
Many of Bayless’ numbers are based on him playing limited minutes, and he likely would not continue to produce at that right if you did give him 30 mpg. There is a threshold there that needs to be considered.
However, I do like what I see out of Bayless, and am glad to see him starting to get some regular PT. He isn’t going to get 20 minutes every night, yet, but they are giving him 10-15, and it looks like he is trying to make the most of it.
His defense will improve with time. Many of the problems he has are still a result of inexperience, more than a lack of athletic ability. The same seems to be true for some of his turnovers, as he occasionally appears to get out of control in his desire to create.
sample size is always relevant
but the point here is that we have adequate sample size to tell us the incumbents are incompetent, therefore give the challenger a shot.
No one should be saying Bayless is a guarantee – but the numbers suggest he will be a major improvement.
by blacknoiseNW on Dec 11, 2009 9:51 AM PST up reply actions
get a room.
Ben is now trying to install a tiny Camera in the peephole of Bayless’ hotel room so he can watch him change.
Bayless is trapped in limbo. He’s not quite good enough to be a true PG and not quite large enough to be a true SG.
trade him for Caron Butler
by kikifromdowntown on Dec 11, 2009 12:19 PM PST reply actions
Bayless
One of the mantras this year was that now the Blazers go for it, there’s no putting people into the game to develop the young talent, you put in whoever will get you a W on that particular night.
Well, no longer are the Blazers a credible team to make a solid playoff run. I suspect they will still limp into the playoffs but that’s it.
Since they have made a big step backward this season, it is time to revise the strategy. Since everyone knows there are no rings coming this year, time to go back to an earlier strategy. Namely, make one of the key priorities of the team that of developing the young players.
Let’s face it, when the team gets back some of the players that are currently injured, so that they have a rotation that is more solid in its talent, there will still be some players with big question marks on them, most particularly Bayless, and perhaps next in line in that category is Cunningham.
On the other hand, maybe I don’t really have much of an argument here. Because, consider the case of Martell. He gets a lot of playing time and it is still completely up in the air what his capabilities are.
But I guess the way to look at that is: You can play a guy and still not know what you’ve got in him. But if you don’t play a guy then it is a slam dunk that you are not going to have a clue as to what his capability is.
Blake
Although I have been one of the nastiest critics of Blake, I must admit that it does look to me like he has been playing pretty good defense lately. I suspect that is the main reason he has gotten a lot of playing time despite all the bricks he’s been throwing.
trade Andre?
I must say I am not in the “trade Andre” camp.
He is the ONLY Blazer who has a solid set of point guard skills.
You can tell Bayless improved because the teams play drops off when he goes out. I remember a few times
this year I wondered what Nate was thinking taking Bayless out when the Blazers were doing great with him in there.
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