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Around SBN: Explaining Jeremy Lin's Early, Surprising Success

Most encouraging signs from the early season

 

There has been a ton of early season hand wringing over the hurky-jerkey start the Blazers have had. I have certainly done my share. It was not from any sense of doom and gloom or anything, more of, what happened to that smooth flowing team I remember from last season.

Then Nate went to that 3 guard line-up and wow do we look smooth. It is a whole different team with this line up starting. I do not think it will last, Roy is not a full time 3 in Nate's offense. Roy needs his numbers, he won't get them swinging the ball from the outside like 3's do in Nate's system. For that reason alone this line up won't last. But it has provided many encouraging signs, here are my top 3:

Star-divide

3. Oden has his jump back. Do you notice how far off the floor he gets on some of his blocks? Man oh man, that alone is encouraging as all get out.

2. Miller is allowed to actually run the offense. McMillan is a very deliberate play caller by nature it seems. He has had his reasons to be sure, and he has been quite successful until now at it. That got us to where we are at, but to move to that next level we need floor general's. People not just observing the ebb and flow of a game, but feeling it. Basketball is a rhythm game, someone on the floor calling plays is more sensitive to that rhythm. The last two games seem to bear this out.

1. Aldridge and Oden crushing Minnesota's front line last night. I know it was the lowly T-Wolves. I know we should have mopped them up exactly the way we did. No doubt about it. But come on, we all know the wrap on Aldridge, he is not tough enough. I don't buy it generally speaking, but I will concede he tends to play to the level of his opposition or sometimes get taken out of games by some pretty rough handling by an opponent. I have seen LaMarcus have big nights before, but last night you could see that he knew the T-Wolves had nothing for him and he took it right at them time and again. It was great

Oden, too, looked aggressive. He did not spend any time trying to figure out the guy on him on either end, he dictated what happened in that match up all night long on both ends. No hesitation, just tone setting attack ball. He is still getting cleared out by two opponets on every board, but so what, Aldridge has been attacking the glass from the other side and harvesting strong rebounding numbers because of his aggressive play.

Closing thoughts

We know exactly what Roy can bring to any game at any moment. Clutch guy, good driver, great speed and an ability to create his shot. We know he can dictate the terms of almost any matchup. We know how good both Aldridge and Oden are too, but what we don't know is if they can become nightly tone setters. Last night's aggression was an encouraging sign. If they keep building on that attitude and start dictating play more, we will be hard to beat by anyone, anytime.

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Also need to add Travis

Travis playing within himself. Travis is playing great right now. He is no longer only taking crazy jump shots. He’s passing, he’s defending, and he’s getting to good spots on the floor and taking the shots he should take.

by boppitywop on Nov 9, 2009 8:39 PM PST reply actions  

I agree.

In retrospect, you almost would think that last year was Outlaw’s contract year, taking so many ill-advised random jumpers. And lets not forget his defense so far(SO FAR) has been much better. He has been playing good team ball.

"I don't always read blogs regarding the Trail Blazers
...but when I do... I read Blazers Edge."

- resurrect_ha28

by FiveOhThree-RipCity!! on Nov 9, 2009 8:45 PM PST up reply actions  

Outlaw went back to the early jump shot about 9:30 left in the 4th quarter

and that triggered a few bad plays but then they got back to running some offense. Travis is doing all the little things we all knew he could do – blocking shots, rebounding, playing some team defense. If he stays focused he might have a shot at 6th man award at the end of the year (not that the award is a goal but it means Travis is helping us win big).

"Either way we have two phenomenal units. I'm excited to play with either one." - Martell Webster

by lee3022 on Nov 9, 2009 9:52 PM PST up reply actions  

You nailed it with #2.

Nate letting go is huge!

And the thing about setting a rhythm like Miller does, the other players on the floor then develop a sense of timing in everything they do. It’s like there’s a backbeat where there was none before.

That, I believe is why we will see our frontcourt scoring improve and more scoring in the paint in general.

by Blazin' on Nov 9, 2009 9:07 PM PST reply actions  

you forgot webster's energy.

"There are a few teams you have to watch out for in the fourth quarter."
"Yeah, but Portland definitely is not one of them."

-New Orleans Hornets broadcasters at the end of the third quarter with the Hornets leading 74-59. Portland later ends up winning 97-89.

"They don't mind him shooting that shot at all. Rudy Fernandez is not that great of a 3pt shooter."

-New Orleans Hornets broadcasters right after a Rudy Fernandez missed 3pter. Rudy Fernandez finished the game with three 3pters on six attempts.

by Tofu Anonymous on Nov 9, 2009 9:35 PM PST reply actions  

Webster and Rudy and Travis are all going to get fewer minutes and need to pour themselves all out

with the minutes they get. That may get better for Martell once his shot is falling with confidence. But his energy has been good all year to me.

"Either way we have two phenomenal units. I'm excited to play with either one." - Martell Webster

by lee3022 on Nov 9, 2009 9:54 PM PST up reply actions  

That's the biggest surprise for me

Webster has been so much more explosive and physical than I ever imagined he’d be, even before the injury. Before last season when we heard about his improved defense I thought he’d be more like a poor man’s Shane Battier, more using positioning and knowhow than foot speed. With his combination of defense, energy and shooting he can be a huge X factor for us the rest of the season. I hope he’s starting again soon and still gets minutes when Batum comes back.

Your confusing thesis has captured my attention. Tell me more.

by terryisntbald on Nov 9, 2009 10:11 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm not completely sure that this lineup won't last.

If you conceive of things as a PG and two Wings and two Bigs… You’ve got Miller as the de facto PG, Roy as the top of the key wing, and Blake as the weak side corner 3 shooter. So on the offensive end it is actually BLAKE, not Roy, who is the “Small Forward” on offense.

In the Blazers’ system the person “playing the Portland” (as Nic Batum so cleverly called it) basically loiters on the 3 point circle and shoots open looks. I was noticing tonight that Utah plays the same way, they station at the line (2 guys, not 1) and kick out or skip pass for open look 3s…

On the Defensive end, that’s where Brandon needs to cover the 3. He’s big enough and strong enough to do this, I think, although it will absolutely cost him some of his scoring if he does it right, since with many teams (San Antonio, for example) the SF is a real scoring wing.

What I really like is that this lineup keeps the Miller-Oden pairing, which I have believed was essential from day one. And also: the corollary is that Marty (who can run) moves to the White Unit, which is run by Bayless and Rudy. Rudy doesn’t have good enough handles to be a PG, nor is he quick enough to cover PGs — but he can direct the offense and pass. Rex has great handles and is quick enough to cover PGs — but he’s mostly a drive-and-kick guy. You put them together and they are complementary pieces of the puzzle. And Pryz rebounds like a superstud, meaning it is less important for Travis to do that which he is not suited to do — bang and score low.

This lineup makes terrific sense to me. It is up to the superstar Mr. Roy to figure out how to make it work for himself. I have faith in him to do that…

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Nov 9, 2009 10:24 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

nice Timbo!

I have been thinking the same thing. People keep saying Roy is playing the 3 spot but really it IS Blake based on the scheme (1 guard, 2 wings, two bigs). I think this is why people also say the Rudy or Martell can replace Blake in this line-up and give you slightly better playmaking/passing (Rudy) or defense (Marty). The problem is that Rudy is not shooting as well as Blake has been and Martell lacks the playmaking/passing ability of Blake.

I see that role rotating based on our needs all year long or until Batum comes back. Even then, we can’t judge what he’ll be able to do. Call it our ‘flex’ lineup. Insert the piece that you need at the 3 whether it is shooting, playmaking, defense, or any skill or combination of skills needed. We have many guys that aren’t necessarily perfect all around for that position but are good to excellent at 1 or 2 of those.

"Do me a favor. Put your lip over your head... and swallow." Max Goldman

by clinchmobb on Nov 10, 2009 1:17 PM PST up reply actions  

True on Rudy

But Rudy will only get his shot back on if he is playing meaningful minutes. And I think Rudy forcing all those lobs to Pryz was a bit of a nudge to nate, like hey, imagine those lobs going to Oden/LMA.

Unfortunately I don’t see Rudy going to the starting line-up any time soon. The second unit needs his playmaking too much, I just can’t see a Blake/Bayless line-up. I can’t see him being unhappy about his role though, Nate is giving him a huge amount of flexibility as a ball-handler. If Rudy and Bayless can get a connection, they can be a force to be reckoned with.

Hopefully Rudy can get some time with the the starters in different points in the game so he can some fun with the big men.

Portland could coast along with their superior talent and stay right with us. Now that Portland woke up, the hammer cometh down.

by Batumshakalaka on Nov 12, 2009 5:13 PM PST up reply actions  

How about the fact that the team righted itself quickly after their so-so first week?

I think that’s pretty good. Not out of the woods yet, but it looks like they are ‘getting it’ the last couple games.

Blazer Fan

by leeroyjenkins on Nov 10, 2009 7:42 AM PST reply actions  

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