The Sched Ahead -- 11/09/09 Week Three, Primoris Annus Blazerium Dominatium

SUMMARY INFO

This weekly schedule analysis is based on four categories of games:

1. Home games against sub .500 teams.  Cream Puff Home.
2. Home games against winning teams (I'm including teams right at .500 in this category).  Jawbreaker Home.
3. Road games at losing teams.  Banana Peel Road.
4. Road games at winning teams.  Rocky Road.

A general formula for success in the NBA is to win almost all of Cat 1 (Cream Puff Home), a majority of Cat 2 (Jawbreaker Home) and Cat 3 (Banana Peel Road), and win some in Cat 4 (Rocky Road).  The contenders may win more than half of their Cat 4 games.

Back to Backs (hereafter BtoB) are also tracked so as to provide further data on schedule difficulty.

I had always viewed games using these categories, but this fan post convinced me that others might be interested, and thus the sched ahead posts began, with all results generated by an Excel spreadsheet (laziness FTW).  Due to complaints from the numerically challenged, I added food names to the basic Cat 1-4 designation.

Preseason overview

As a bonus, I have used the "jscot stupid sched projections" (c).  These stupidly assume that a team will continue to win each category of games at the same rate they have won them to date.  These are deferred until we get further into the season.

I am still using last season's win-loss records to determine whether teams are a winning opponent or a losing opponent.  This will probably hold for another week or so before I start to use this year's record.  

Last week's update

COMMENTS ON THE WEEK

Portland (2-1) split two Jawbreaker Home games (Cat 2) and won a Cat 1 Cream Puff.  Not great, but decent.

Dallas (2-1) won two at home, a Cream Puff and a Jawbreaker, and lost a Cat 4 back to back at New Orleans.  A decent week.

Denver (2-2) started the week great with two Banana Peel road wins against losing teams, but then ran into trouble and lost two tough Rocky Road Cat 4s against winning teams.   Not a bad week, you expect to lose the games they lost.

Houston (2-1) had a great start to the week with a Cat 4 Rocky Road in Utah, gave it back with a Cat 2 home loss to L.A., and then closed out with a Cat 1 Cream Puff win against OKC.  A good week. 

L.A.  (4-0) won a game in every category.  Cat 4 at Houston, Cat 3 at OKC, Cat 2 home to N.O., and Cat 1 home to Memphis. 

N.O. (1-3) also played a game in every category, but didn't fare as well.  They started by slipping on a Cat 3 Banana Peel at NY (on a back to back), won a Cat 2 at home against Dallas, then dropped a Cat 1 against Toronto (this game may shift to a Cat 2 if Toronto keeps playing well), and lost a Cat 4 at L.A.    

Phoenix (3-1).  The Suns are hot.  Three Cat 4s and they won two, at Miami and Boston, losing at Orlando, then adding a Cat 3 win at Washington.  Very impressive.  Last year they didn't win their second Cat 4 Rocky Road game until January 25th.  They didn't win their third until April 8th.  They seem likely to get another one before April 8th this season.

The Spurs (0-2) lost two Rocky Road Cat 4s, at Utah and Portland.  The only redeeming feature for them is that they were games that they might be expected to lose.   

Utah (1-3) had a really bad week, losing a Cat 4 Rocky Road at Dallas, and only going 1-2 at home, with a win over S.A. but a Cat 2 loss to Houston and the most painful loss for any Western contender so far this year, a Cat 1 Cream Puff at home against the Kings. 

Helped themselves:  L.A., Phoenix.

Neutral: Portland, Dallas, Denver, Houston. 

Hurt themselves:  N.O., S.A., Utah..

The tables:

Cat 4 -- Rocky Road

Phoenix picked up two big wins in these toughest games, Houston and L.A. each got one.   San Antonio last year was strong in this category, they aren't looking too impressive right now.

Cat 3 -- Banana Peel Road 

New Orleans became the first Western contender to drop a road game against a losing team.  In general, Western contenders should be expected to win somewhere between 65-85% of these games.  So far, that is holding.

Cat 2 -- Jawbreaker Home

Here's our first schedule disparity.  We've played significantly more tough home games than some of our rivals.  Unfortunately, we've also lost two of them.  We should be looking to win around 70-80% of these games, perhaps more.

Cat 1 -- Cream Puff Home

Two losses in this category.  Last year, the Western contenders went a month without losing any home games to losing teams during the stretch run.  This year, there are already 3, as N.O. dropped one to Toronto and Utah went down to Sacramento.  Toronto seems a candidate for reclassification as a winning team in a week or two, though.

All Home Games

Portland, Houston, N.O., and Utah (twice) dropped home games this week.  Portland and L.A. have played more of their home games than the other contenders. 

All Away Games

Western playoff contenders overall were 8-9 in road games for the week.  We are not the only Western power to start a little slow.

All Games Against Winning Teams

As far as overall quality of opposition, we have generated some imbalance here -- we have fewer remaining games against winning competition than any of our rivals.

All Games Against Losing Teams

Note that the Hornets have already lost two to losing teams.  All of last year we only lost five. 

Back to Back Games Remaining

Above is overall back to backs, categorized by the difficulty of the second game.  Every team except Portland and L.A. played a back to back this week.  Denver played two.  Next is remaining back to backs where both teams are on a back to back:

By subtracting the two, we get games where only the Western contender in question is on a back to back:

The imbalance here is little changed from last week.  Advantage S.A. and Phoenix, disadvantage L.A.  Note that quite a few teams are picking up wins on back to backs, so while a back to back is a scheduling difficulty, it by no means guarantees a loss.  Now, we look at games where we are not on a back to back, but our opponent is:

Note that Denver and Utah are going to face significantly more tired opponents than Portland.  Note also that Denver gets 12 (!) of their Cat 2 games (home games against winning opponents) when the opponent is on a back to back.  That means that Denver, which already has the altitude advantage, has a double advantage on most of their toughest home games.  Expect the Nuggets to rack up a lot of home wins this year.

The Coming Week

Well, we seem to have finally hit a stretch of decent play.  Will it carry over to the road?  This next week will tell us a lot about this team.

1. Portland.  Four road games in five nights, Memphis, Minnesota, N.O., Charlotte.  Three of them are Cat 3 Banana Peel games, the one at N.O. is a Cat 4, but they've been struggling.  Every game is winnable.  In the NBA, every road game, especially, is dangerous.  The key to the trip, in my opinion, is Memphis.  If we win that, I like our chances in Minnesota the next night, and like our chances of at least getting one of the next three (including the Atlanta game next week).  A winning road trip, and the rough start to the season becomes just a memory.
2. Dallas.  Home to Houston (Cat 2), then a back to back at S. A. (Cat 4), followed by two Banana Peels at Minnesota and Detroit (who will be on a BtoB).
3. Denver.  Smith should be back.  Two more road games, Cat 4 at Chicago then a Banana Peel at Milwaukee (BtoB), then home to the L@kers, who will be on a back to back.  They'll be hoping for a couple wins, anyway.
4. Houston.  Tricky week for the Rockets.  Cat 4 at Dallas, Home Cream Puff against Memphis (both teams will be on a back to back), then a Banana Peel at Sacramento and a Cat 4 at the L@kers.  2-2 would actually be a pretty decent week.
5. L.A.  Cat 2 at home against Phoenix (who will be on a BtoB), then a BtoB themselves with a Rocky Road at Denver, then back home for another Cat 2 Jawbreaker against Houston.
6. N.O.  Back to back tonight at the Clippers (Cat 3 Banana Peel), a tough Cat 4 at Phoenix, then home for a Cat 2 against Portland, followed by a Cat 4 Rocky Road at Atlanta (both teams on a BtoB).  Tough week for a team that has been struggling.   
7. Phoenix.  After last week, these guys are ready for anything.  At Philly tonight (Cat 4, BtoB for both teams, fifth game in seven nights for the Suns).  Then home for a Cat 2 against N.O. and then a back to back Cat 4 at L.A.  Closing the week with a Cat 1 at home against Toronto.  If they win 3 of the 4, you have to start believing that this team may be a legit playoff threat.   
8. S.A.  Rough start for the Spurs, maybe they can get well at home.  Three home games this week, two Cat 1 Cream Puffs (Toronto, OKC) and one Cat 2 Jawbreaker (Dallas, who is on a BtoB).  Anything less than three wins will be a disappointment.   
9. Utah.  You can be sure it wasn't part of their plan to be 2-4 before going on the road this week.  Four games, one Banana Peel and three Rocky Roads.  Starting at the Knicks, then on to Boston, and then back to back against Philly and Cleveland.  Utah has the Knicks' first round pick this year, so a N.Y. win would be especially sweet.  If the Jazz escape with two wins, it will be a good week for them. 

That's it for this week.  Really, only San Antonio has a week that makes you think it is set up for them to have a great week.  Just about everyone else has some scary games.  If we can get three wins, we'll improve in the standings and give ourselves a winning record on the road.

And Finally

Have you remembered to purchase your tickets for kids? 

Dave's original post announcing the 400 ticket target.

This man still wants to make bets, I think.

Dave's latest post says that around 250 of the 400 have been sold.  Maybe Dave will give us an update soon.

From one of Dave's posts:

Blazersedge Night:  Monday, January 25th:  Blazers vs. Hornets

Tickets sell for $22 each.  There is a $5 service charge per order no matter what the size.  Save money by buying tickets together with friends.

How to Order

You can call the Blazers directly at 503-797-9637.  PLEASE MAKE SURE to tell them you're ordering for Blazersedge Night and that you want the tickets to be donated to the kids.  (Side Note:  We also have a block of tickets reserved for BE folks who want to attend.  You can buy seats for yourself if you wish.)  The Blazers accept all of the usual forms of payment.

You can also make a PayPal donation to blazersedge22@yahoo.com.  We will pool the money collected and purchase tickets with it.  You can donate enough for multiple tickets or even partial amounts...anything is welcome.

You can also e-mail me directly at blazersub@yahoo.com  if you'd prefer to send a check via snail mail.