23 minutes. 18 of which were against the totally inept Timberwolves in garbage time. While I appreciate the enthusiasm, I’m not sure that sample size can support a 2000 word post on making roster moves around the guy. Anyone want to place bets on who will have more minutes played by Jan 1: Bayless or Pendergraph?

but posting a PER of 27 in 23 minutes isn’t a refutation of this any more than Acie Law leading the Warriors in PER indicates that he needs more time, or Nathan Jawai leading the Wollves in PER indicates that he needs more time.

In fact, if you go through the league, you’ll find all kinds of anomalies like this either leading or second on their team in PER. Marcus Thornton and Darren Collison are leading the Hornets in PER (in 9 and 12 minutes total this season), Flip Murray is leading the Bobcats in PER, Shelden Williams is 3rd on the C’s, Dragic is 3rd on the Suns, Donte Greene is leading the Kings, Koufos is leading the Jazz, Morrisson is 3rd on the Lakers, Hansbrough is leading the Pacers, Jordan Hill is leading the Knicks, Marcus Banks is 2nd on the Raptors.

Only time will tell, and he’s done a decent job of treading water, but I think we need to see this for a lot more than 20 minutes before juggling the rotation around.

We all seem to agree that Bayless has the speed and quickness to be effective on the defensive end. Unfortunately, for the most part he has failed to demonstrate the ability to do so. He may just need more time to get a feel on that end of the court, but to this point his performance on that end is disappointing. I guess the argument could easily be made of the other PGs also.

What I do believe is that the moves the Blazers made in the off-season clearly point to their belief that Bayless is the long-term answer at PG. Miller is expected to improve our PG play, but at his age is not the long-term answer. The could have pursued younger PGs with potential, players like Shannon Brown and Ramon Sessions were easily within their reach, but they chose to not do so. I was not entirely in agreement with that decision, but with the decisions that were made it would be a mistake to not allow Bayless to develop.

Bayless played well against Minni, but against SA he was lost at controlling the team. He scored, but he didn’t get the team into their offense very well at all.

He can be on the floor and score, while learning how to distribute. If you are not willing to put up with mistakes and some rough patches, he will never develop.

Many folks seem to be willing to live with Oden’s inconsistency or Nic’s, but seem equally unwilling to give Bayless the time he needs to develop. Sergio, Jack and even Telfair were given three seasons each, Bayless has only had 600 minutes.

This reminds me of the “spreadsheet” JScot mentions in his signature that can show anything. As Jake pointed out it seems the same PER argument could be made for many players around the league, including Dante on our own team. I realize you made “qualifying statements,” but I just don’t think a PER with such a limited sample size is even worth mention.

If you like his intensity, aggressiveness, style of play. Sure, I can get on board with those reasons as they seem to have a reliable amount of data to support them.

I’m not sure why people may be more willing to live with Oden’s or Nic’s inconsistencies. My first instinct is because neither one of them is running the point, and both are fairly effective defensively, sometimes dominant defensively. If their offense is off, you just don’t pass it to them I guess, whereas if Bayless is off…well he’s the PG. Even when Greg or Nic are non existent offensively, you still have half a solid player in their defense, you do not have that yet with Bayless, he can cost you points on both ends of the court.

Confirmed.

Best internet definition ever and oh so appropriate here:
This is coming from a Bayless fan btw

Small Sample Size
From The Rogue’s Baseball Index

Small Sample Size is a principle used by sabermetrically oriented baseball bloggers to denote the inconclusive predictive nature of a body of data, given the principles of probability. Small Sample Size is also what many bloggers point out just before ignoring it.

Example:

“Granted, it’s a small sample size, but through the first ten games of the season, Ronnie Belliard’s 30 home run potential is finally bearing fruit.”

Because I saw who authored the post, so I knew it must be Jerryd. :)

I was impressed with his decision-making against Minnesota. He seemed to make good decisions on when to drive, when to shoot, when to pass. Some nice assists. We’ll see how it goes over the next few games. He’s played well enough to have a few more chances, for sure.

Because I saw who authored the post, so I knew it must be Jerryd. :)

I was impressed with his decision-making against Minnesota. He seemed to make good decisions on when to drive, when to shoot, when to pass. Some nice assists. We’ll see how it goes over the next few games. He’s played well enough to have a few more chances, for sure.

But I knew it was Bayless as well

Responding to point 3. It is widely assumed here that one of the reasons for bringing in Dre’ was to limit the risk of Bayless falling into the starting point guard role. To restate what has already been said a thousand times, Bayless is not ready to start. If you think the offense bogs down, how bad could it be if Miller gets injured, Bayless is shoved into the starting lineup and the second unit is left with who two create offense. I’m perfectly happy with Bayless as an energy guy / insurance policy if either of our starting points goes down.

But the stats are not just due to Bayless. He is providing raw physical talent and a homing instinct for the orange ring. However, Rudy has been directing the offense when Jarryd is on the floor. Jarryd doesn’t have to clutter his mind up with directing traffic. That speeds his offense up a lot and he can make faster decisions to either attack or distribute. This makes the “white” unit really dangerous. The thing that amazes me is all the fan talk praising this player or disparaging that player (or even touting their stats). We appear to forget that basketball is a team sport and it really matters what a player does situationally—and not so much what their individual stat line is. Not that raw talent doesn’t matter. But talent contributes in many ways—not the least of which is how it changes the game for the other players on the floor. Sometimes just knowing that the talent is there directs the opposition away from it. For example, Nic never put up great numbers but he was a difference maker as a one-on-one defender—freeing up his teammates to focus on other threats. Nic was a credible threat on offense but didn’t usually take the shot unless wide open. Greg’s presence in the middle on defense alters the flow of the opposing team offense. It’s not only what he does—it’s also what he can do that changes opponent’s behavior. Roys stats against the T-Wolves yesterday were lackluster at best. However, nobody could argue intelligently that his presence on the court was irrelevant or that he had a “bad game.” Even when not scoring, he still draws the defense toward him and creates opportunities for the others and makes the accurate pass to the open shooter. That’s hard to measure as an individual stat. Some nights will be like that and others will be a scorefest for him.

So, what matters for success is how the players fit together. Bayless fits well with Rudy who can run, direct traffic, make phenomenal passes, run the offense and spread the floor with his outside shooting ability. Later maybe Jarryd learns to have better court vision and be a better floor general. Maybe not. He is very young and time alone will tell.

I agree that Blake is ultimately the odd man out. It’s not the 3 guard set that makes the first unit work. It is having 3 players moving the ball around who are all excellent ball handlers and distributers—combined with Miller’s floor generalship. Roy may be the allstar but neither he nor Blake is half the floor general that Miller is. Without Miller pushing the tempo and directing traffic, that unit runs the floor like a molasses spill. You know what I mean. We have all seen it. Blake or Roy walks the ball up. Roy eyes the defense and decides how best to attack it. Then he does a few timing dribbles to get past the defense and, either succeeds and takes the shot or finds an open shooter. Predictable and not a formula to get the whole team involved or to succeed against great defenders. I hate to say it but the Blazers play better team basketball when Roy is off the floor. We saw it when Roy was injured last season. The improved team play almost made up for the lack of the star player being on the floor and, surprisingly, we kept winning. Roy needs an Andre Miller to keep the ball moving around and to create a team scoring threat. This is what the great offenses do. Ultimately, Miller and the team also need the threat of Roy’s ability to single-handedly break down the defense and create space for the offense to work. That can take this team to a whole new level of the game. Unfortunately, as noted above, Blake is the replaceable component. He is dependable and solid at what he does but not exceptionally talented in a way that makes him difficult to replace. His best skill is the open outside shot. But that is not unique. Blake could be replaced in that unit with any other athletic 2 or 3 who is a good ball handler and a decent outside shooter—and we have several of those who are either ready or close to ready. Ideally, it will be a 3 or a 2/3 with length, strength, and speed. They will need to do something about Anthony when they play the Nuggets again because I don’t think they want Roy to have to guard him. So, long term, I think Blake falls back behind Miller and Rudy at the point, as Rudy picks up the main point responsibilities in the “white” unit for now when Bayless is on the floor. I think Bayless continues to pick up minutes at the 2 in the white unit with Blake getting some minutes with either unit when they need his skills. Then maybe Patty Mills develops into a point guard of the future with Bayless as either a combo guard or even a point guard if he can improve his court vision and decision making speed.

When I read the report that coach wanted Rudy to play more PG back in summer , I was thinking it is a great move not only for Rudy but for Jerryd, because my take on Bayless is like this:

Just improve your jumper and your life will be a LOT easier and will crack into the rotation – even if you improve nothing on the point guard skills. The reason is Rudy could share the PG duty in the second unit and ease Bayless into his role, and that’s exactly what’s happening right now.

Bayless with a jumper could be a truly dangerous off-guard and even though the sample size is small, I think this season his J “appears” to be improved.

Anyone else notice that Dejuan Blair has a higher PER than anyone on the Blazers roster that has gotten significant minutes?

His shot has improved, but he can’t pass, he just doesn’t see the floor very well at all. Commits turnovers. Plays to aggressive on defense, he just doesn’t understand team defense. Intelligence is why Miller, Blake , Roy has done so well the last few games. They see the floor so well. I love his heart and his passion but that will only take you so far, you still need intelligence.

His nonsensical “efficiency rating” lacks statistical credibility. It takes into account only end point data and lacks any actual measure of a player’s efficiency. Hollinger is nothing more than a glorified fantasy basketball analyst, who with ESPN’s help has passed his misleading formula off as a hard line measure of a players worth.

Bayless is a nice young player who played a solid game, but he was not the best player, nor the most efficient Blazer Sunday night.

The "per" is remedial attempt at explaining a players value. It lacks statistical structure and content and it fails to provide an accurate assessment of the one thing it claims to represent, efficiency.

Quit referencing it!!!

this is a long thread

bayless is effective when played alongside rudy, blake or miller (or roy, i suppose, as long as he’s in a passing mood) but he still isn’t effective enough as a pass-first point guard or a legitimate scorer based on his (STILL AWFUL REGARDLESS OF WHAT MIKE AND MIKE SAY) outside shooting woes.

you forgot to include the left half of the parentheses.
anyways, i’m basing my assertion not on any fancy morey stats, rather that his shot looks just as flat and forced as it did last year and in his time at arizona. once his shot looks more fluid and comfortable and we’re no longer surprised when it drops through the net, i’ll admit his improvement. if you’re looking purely from a statistical angle, i got nuthin’.

i agree with you jscot but drexler’s shot was flat and natural.
bayless looks like he wants to get more arc on it and hasn’t found it yet.