A Paradigm Shift? Is the new 3-guard system for the Blazers the answer?
Could this be a shift in the paradigm as it pertains to winning championships in the NBA? Could this new philosophy, this new system, we’re seeing from the Blazers be the next winning formula? Could our new offensive/defensive schemes become the secret to destroying opponents? With a starting line-up that consists of two point guards, Andre Miller and Steve Blake, (sporting Yin-Yang-like skill-sets); a combo guard, Brandon Roy, who could easily be in the realm of Kobe, Wade, and Lebron when it comes to impacting the game; an uber-versatile power forward, LaMarcus Aldridge, who possesses great speed, agility, quickness as well as an unblockable jumper, and Greg Oden, our once-in-a-generation center who ferociously defends our paint against all intruders with malice. Could this three guard line-up work better than anyone expected?
It’s an unorthodox line-up, but it’s something different and obviously causes some headaches. Gregg Popovich had to call a timeout 44 seconds into the game on Friday because our line-up caused a new set of problems for the opposing team. Our center is a defense-minded juggernaut. Our power forward can shoot the 18 foot jumper and likes to run the floor. Our 3 man is a “can do everything on the court and can get to the rim at will” player. Our 2 guard is a spot up jump shooter with range who can spread the floor and (since he is point guard) he can also run the offense smoothly, along with our other guard who has great playmaking ability, an above-average mid-range game and is an excellent post-up point guard. Unorthodox line-up indeed, but each player has very complimentary skills.
For our second unit we will throw in our international sensation, Rudy Fernandez, who has proven his ability to perform in high-stakes games (as witnessed when he carved up the U.S. Olympic team to the tune of 22 points in 18 minutes on the world stage.) Not to mention Travis Outlaw, our combo-forward who’s athleticism and instant offense are virtually unstoppable. (Travis can get his shot off on anyone, at any time, from anywhere. Period. Dot. End of story.) Our athletic energy player, Martell Webster, who has “Ray”-esque shooting form and a strong athletic body capable of being a decent-to-good wing defender. We also have Jarryd Bayless, a drive-first, scoring point guard who also has the potential to be a great defensive point-guard as well; and last, but certainly not least, we have Joel Pryzbilla filling in as our back-up center. He is the most efficient rebounder I’ve seen in a long time as well as an accomplished defender and shot blocker. It could be argued that this second unit is as good as most team’s first units!
Oh, wait a minute! I forgot to mention our two promising forward prospects, Dante Cunningham (who showcased his skill-set in limited minutes during the Minnesota game) and Jeff Pendergraph, either of which may be used for leverage in trades down the road or may, in fact, turn out to be great acquisitions because the organization has plans for them to play a future role in our continued success. We even have Euro talent getting quality development overseas, so that when they do finally come over to the team, they will adapt more readily to the NBA and be able to contribute immediately. Did I mention Nicolas Batum, our future elite-level defensive specialist on the perimeter and Patty Mills, another lightning quick scoring point guard, both sidelined with injuries? Hmmm. As you can see we are set up for long-term success.
You have to give the Trailblazer organization a huge pat on the back for this one. Sure we lucked out with the number one draft in 2007. Though, honestly, looking at this roster, you’d almost think it was divine intervention. Can you think of a better fit for Oden? Playing opposite Aldridge down low? And with Brandon Roy? And not one, but two point guards that can run the team effectively by his side? Miller will shoulder the majority of the offensive coordination responsibility, but Blake is very capable of running the offense as well. That starting line-up is good with the potential to be great or even supernatural. There are better individual players than Blake for sure, but he compliments this line-up very well. It’s about synergy with this line-up. The sum is greater than the parts.
If you look at how Portland constructed this team. They are poised for greatness over the next decade if everything falls into place. McMillian (who is also learning how to coach a team with this much talent effectively) is now about to find out the positive effects of letting someone who is capable of running a team do just that. (This is why Miller was picked up in the first place!) This move will take a lot of stress off of Mac as well, since he will really only need to focus on the defensive end. Blake is already trusted to run the team on offense and Miller is quickly earning that trust. The offense will run smoothly in the near future and for years to come. (You have to wonder what McMillian learned from D’Antoni when they were coaching the Olympic team together?) The offense will be fine. It’ll be the defensive end where they need to stay focused and excel at.
I like the roles that are being created/defined for everyone. A lot of attention has surrounded the question of playing time (or lack thereof) for all these guys. What if we change the context of our questioning? What if instead of asking “How can we can we get all of our guys 30-35 minutes a night to keep them happy?”, we started asking a new question? One like, “How can we get 30-35 minutes of production from our guys in 20-25 minutes a night and keep them happy?” Now that is a quality question if you ask me! When you go 19/10 in 25 minutes like Aldridge did against Minnesota or 21/4/3 in 26 minutes as Miller did against them as well, you are not likely to question playing time. Just for kicks I’ll throw in the fact that Fenrandez had 5/5/6 in 23 minutes and Blake had 6/4/5 against Minnesota in 27 minutes and you realize that these are all very nice contributions in limited minutes from multiple players. No one will care about minutes...especially when you feel like you contributed to the win, and a big win at that. I’m not saying these numbers will happen every night, but the potential is there. There are so many offensive weapons on this team it is ridiculous.
I think McMillian has stumbled onto something here. He has been playing with his line-ups and is learning how to employ the best offensive AND defensive schemes that will utilize the strengths of his players while mitigating their weakness, all while establishing the best line-ups that create chemistry for this team. On offense, this team will be a team that plays off of mismatches, especially since we have the offensive advantage at more positions than any other team in the league. Our starters, Roy, Aldridge, and Oden have a mismatch on virtually anyone in the league, as does our bench with Outlaw, Fernandez, Webster, and Bayless bringing a lot of talent to our second unit on offense.
The defensive schemes have looked good as well. As long as the perimeter players stay long and active in the passing lanes and rotate defensively, with Aldridge harassing the opposing team’s power foward with his quickness, and Oden just being huge in the middle, you will have a very potent defense. McMillan is correct when he says that the defense rest on Oden’s large shoulders. Everything is anchored to him. His intimidation alters the opponents offensive game no matter what the game plan is. Every game I have seen him in he just looks dominant, even when he wasn’t playing well. He’s just too big, too tall, too athletic. He’s only 21 and is still learning the game, and when he does, he will be unstoppable.
The amazing thing is that you have the same effect (to a lesser degree) with Joel on the second unit. You have Rudy, a very smart defender. Travis, a lengthy and athletic defender (the question is, can he stay focused? Though I like what I’ve seen so far.), Martell, who is a physical specimen that can shoot well and defend. You also have Jarryd Bayless, who will be a dominant perimeter defender when he learns what he can and cannot do out there. He picked up 5 fouls in 18 minutes. Right now he is being over-zealous and over-aggressive when he plays defense. This is to be expected given his short playing time. He wants to give it his all and impress his coach. As far as I’m concerned, he should be over-zealous and over-aggressive, he can bring that to this team. He is strong enough and fast enough to stay in front of his man. With time he will learn how to play aggressive without fouling. (If he is smart and practices a little bit of patience, he will learn everything he can from Miller and Blake on the offensive end, and about his future? Well, let’s just say the keys to this car will be his in a few years...if he can be patient. I hope he realizes what he has going for him here.)
I think our defense will be better then expected. They Blazer had a couple of good possessions where they formed a nice phalanx in the paint when San Antonio was penetrating the other day. This will happen with more frequency as the units gets used to playing with each other and understand their roles on defense. If Oden can become the defensive force that we hope he will, the guards will be free to get in those passing lanes for steals. The second unit is made for running and gunning, and with Pryzbilla anchoring the middle, you can again get into the passing lanes looking for steals and fast break opportunities. Also, I just have to say this...Pryzbilla is a rebound magnet. He may end up averaging more rebounds then Greg this year simply because the second unit has the green light to shoot at will. There will be a lot of opportunities for him to board with that fast pace. He had 13 boards again San Antonio in 18 minutes and 13 boards in 26 minutes tonight against Minnesota...Wow!
If McMillian can get everyone to buy into his defensive scheme and let the offense run through his playmakers, then this will be a very dangerous team. A team that will run a dynamic and flowing offense determined by mismatches and a defense that uses its length, quickness, and athleticism to defend the perimeter with Oden and Pryzbilla anchoring the paint with dominant shot-blocking and rebounding. Both these philosophies are unorthodox and go against the grain of what most consider “winning” basketball combinations. However, in my experience, thinking “outside-the-box” tends to end well. Especially when the decision results in growth (a successful way to integrate a roster stocked with young talent) and contribution (a successful formula for building dynasties).
Everyone is still learning their roles and buying into the game plan. I’m telling you right now that playing time will not be an issue as long as everyone feels they are contributing to the success of this team. This team is learning how to put each other in positions to succeed on offense. Hell, they even ran sets for Dante Cunningham (who produced to the tune of 3-4 shooting for 6 points in 6 minutes) tonight! As long as they can get Bayless and Fernandez to be playmakers and learn how to recognize mismatches and exploit them (as the did tonight with Cunningham) this team is going to be crazy good. Everyone is just now starting to get a feel for what their role is and how they can contribute to this team.
If the coaching staff and organization can get these young men to realize their potential in creating a basketball legacy, then they are in great shape. This team is talented enough to be one of the greatest teams of all time. This organization has enough talent on the books and stockpiled to make it one of the greatest dynasties of all time; capable of winning 6-8 championships (in a row). If these young men buy in and truly believe that the critical success factors needed for them become a dynasty are a) selfless integration and recognition of each other’s skills on offense and b) hard-nosed, scrappy, and active defense, then not only will these players accept their roles, but will live them, love them, and ultimately succeed in them. They will be remembered for their contribution to the whole, not their individual accolades. It takes a certain type of player to put the team before himself. Lucky for us (was it really luck?) we have chosen quality character players who believe in the team first.
As an example, look at Brandon Roy, he knows his role, it is to create something for the team when nothing else is working and to win the game when we need him to. On some nights, his offensive role will not be needed, such as tonight against Minnesota. He knows this, he understands this. There have been some concerns that Roy will have to make the biggest sacrifice in this new system. Not true! He can still contribute. He can contribute more defensively, which is the goal he set for himself this year. In the grand scheme of things, he has the opportunity to be a legend in the annals of basketball history. The best player on one of the greatest teams ever assembled. As long as he understands this and the Blazers keep winning, he will be just fine...promise. He’ll be called upon when the time is needed, and chance are very high he will be successful. That is why he is bordering on superstardom at this point and why he will be willing to accept the role he’s been given, especially if it means winning rings. Even if he sees his scoring numbers go down, Roy knows he can contribute to the team and in games in other ways.
In the end, this is what I really hope these guys understand. That this team has not only the potential to be great now, but can great for the next decade, and may even be able to maintain that greatness for years to come, depending on how we continue to draft/develop/trade for our team. This franchise could be in the discussion with the the Lakers, Celtics, San Antonio and Chicago in terms of greatest basketball dynasty in the near future. All they have to do is want it, and want it more than anything else.
So how did this happen? How did we put ourselves in such a great position? Simple. This organization got together and asked some very quality questions. Like... “What is the best formula for winning a championship? And not just for one season, but for multiple seasons? And not just multiple seasons, but for multiple seasons in a row? And how do we maintain that success for as long as we can?” Now, I know this seems overly-simplistic, but some time and effort was put into answering these questions. The only player that was a “no-brainer” pick on draft day was Greg Oden and even that wasn't necessarily a "no-brainer" considering he had to go against Kevin Durant. However, Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Fernandez, Nicolas Batum, and Jarryd Bayless have all been acquired via draft-day trades, while we have drafted and organically developed Travis Outlaw (potential six man of the year contender) and Martell Webster (has the potential to be a shooter of Ray Allen’s caliber). We bring in (and keep) solid character guys who do their job and do it well in Pryzbilla and Blake. Their skill-sets are very specific and some-what limited and would not to hard to replace if needed. Every one of these players was picked to bring a certain skill to the team and were hand-selected for a reason. Someone was doing their homework when they decided to assemble this roster.
The point is, this strategy for building a contender employed by the Trailblazers has been well conceived and seems to be coming to fruition. The strategy was dynamic and seemingly different. It required getting the the perfect players, with the right attitudes, and complimentary skill-sets to come play off of and for each other. This is synergy. I’m sure the original vision of this team is not it’s current incarnation, but I bet it was something close to this. We were already creating a great work of art...er...team with the decisions we had made, acquiring Roy for Foye, Aldridge for Thomas, Rudy, Batum, Bayless, and the list just goes on and on. However, like most great works of art, it’s usually the “missteps” (Turkoglu and Milsap) along with a bit of luck (Greg Oden and Miller) that truly creates a masterpiece.
If the Trailblazers can get Roy, Oden, Aldridge and the rest of the guys to really buy into the goal of creating a dynasty, and perhaps show them that achievement greatness is so much more fulfilling than satisfying material desires, then we have a chance at greatness. I mean, I would gladly live with $65 million over 5 years instead of $70-$75 million. Especially if it meant I could be an integral part of historical greatness and have my name etched in history, wouldn’t you?
If you envision the result you are trying to accomplish at the beginning and then figure out a game plan up front, the likelihood of your success is that much more likely. This is true for any major goal in life. This is what I’ve seen from this franchise. They came up with what they thought would be the perfect roster (as in player types and complimentary skill-sets) needed to compete for multiple championships and ultimately become a dynasty. They determined what type of players they wanted up front in regards to their skills and their attitude and then systematically checked off their list as they completed each stage and acquired the right pieces. Ladies and gentlemen, this is how you build a franchise and if I were a GM for a rival team I would be taking notes!
At the end of the day, I am a believer in the best of all possibilities. So my question is this, “Is it time for a paradigm shift? Is a three-guard line-up consisting of two point-guards with contrary skills-sets and a superstar, playing along with two perennial All-stars in the making, anchoring the middle the new formula for winning championships in the NBA?” (Not enough can be said at how perceptive KP was/is in understanding the upside potential of the guys he traded for. I'm sure some of it is luck, but he must've known something. He always seems to pick the right people. I would love to pick his brain for a while.) Nate is definitely trying something “outside-the-box” and it seems to be working. I would love this franchise to prove me right in my thinking! Let’s hope they do! Go Blazers!
- O
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Rec for you sir
And a day ago I would said you (as well as Nate) were nuts.
The ball movement is pretty much a give-in with this line-up and yet its fluidity still managed to surprise me. I started nodding when I realized the focus was mostly on feeding Oden and Aldridge in the post. (two point guards on the floor and suddenly Oden is a playmaker?)
When I got real excited was watching the new and improved Bayless (both shooting AND play making) along with a floor general Rudy Fernandez with highlight extraordinaire Martell Webster plus Travis Outlaw (wait…. he’s playing defense AND passing?) and can’t forget the big guy, defense/rebounding madman Joel Pryzbilla. Thats a group that should get some minutes. If ANY of our shooters got hot today, it could easily have been a 130+ game. The only one I remember hitting consistently from range was T.O.
On that note, I may cringe, but I don’t mind seeing miller trying for a couple threes. Its part of his slow start, he’s showing the league that hes not afraid of, and can make the three (occasionally). This forces later match-ups from wandering quite as much. Once he proves he’s still a threat anywhere on the court, his assist game opens up. The announcer mentioned that he scores more often in the beginning to focus the defense on him. There were also turnovers that merely shows that he doesn’t yet have chemistry with the team just yet, and that will improve dramatically throughout the year and should prove deadly in our deep playoff run.
On an off note, besides Cunningham at -2 (not that any of us cares, 3-4 for 6 and some good D as well in his first NBA game was awesome) every single blazer was + double digits. The highest? Miller and Outlaw were tied for +13. Talk about sharing the wealth.
by Batumshakalaka on Nov 9, 2009 3:22 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Its the Timberwolves
Our wins have come against over matched or slumping teams. San Antonio clearly is not playing well (and was missing arguably their best player for a half), OKC is still not a good team and the Blazers have no business losing to Houston no matter how much heart they have.
We have some more softies coming up to pad our record. But does anyone really think the Blazers are playing anywhere near the level of Boston, Orlando, LA or Denver? Right now, Portland isn’t any better than the Atlantas, Houston and Miamis of the NBA. Waxing the 2nd worst team in the NBA doesn’t change that.
The 3 guard lineup is interesting as a way to transition Miller into the starting lineup. But that configuation is only going to work against a few teams. Can you imagine Blake or Miller on Vince Carter or Kobe Bryant? Roy guarding Carmelo Anthony, Lamar Odom or LeBron James for long minutes?
by matthewcc on Nov 9, 2009 5:53 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Thank you
Lost in all this is that in our first 5 games against teams with real wings (Ariza/Battier twice, Melo, Durant, Johnson) was uniformly awful, not matter who was playing up front with it. It’s one thing to look good against Minnesota and San Antonio on the 2nd night of a back to back with Tony Parker at home, it’s another thing to look good against LA, Boston, or Orlando on the road.
While it’s certainly possible that the lineup is the reason behind this, a much simpler explanation is just that we were playing teams that were awful (on the night, I’d bet SA is better than that 9 games out of 10). Let’s see us beat a decent team at full strength before talking about paradigm shifts.
by Royster on Nov 9, 2009 7:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's Obvious...
That for some… Every Silver Cloud has a Dark Lining…
The team is evolving… growing together. Do you actually think Nate isn’t smart enough to make further adjustments if needed?
Let’s see what happens before we judge things. All I know is I had alot more fun watching the team that played last night, and the game before, then I had watching the team that showed up for the first 4 games.
by Ilikeemall on Nov 9, 2009 2:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think this is a concern that many of us have. This 3 guard lineup doesn't look like the way to start the game against many teams.
Do we want to have the same starting 5 for every game? Or do we want to shuffle our starting 5 depending on matchups? I guess I’m ok to shuffle the lineup for a while. Find out what works best for the team. I think long-term we need to find a starting lineup and stick to it, but others may like the rotating starting 5. What say you?
by 52therim on Nov 9, 2009 9:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's not the win thats important, its the game play
I don’t expect the three guard line-up to be a regular starting line-up, especially against teams with elite SG/SF as you said. It’s merely a catalyst to this new style of play. Once Rudy, Martell, and most importantly Roy learn the style and commit to it, they will be reintegrated into the starting line-up according to match-ups.
Even still, expect to see the three guard line-up even in high stake situations when the offense becomes stagnant.
The key to getting the most of this easy run is getting quality time to Rudy, Martell, Bayless and Cunningham.
by Batumshakalaka on Nov 9, 2009 5:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with the potential of our big three, but I see no reason to be all excited about a three guard line-up with Blake
It is totally unclear to me what Blake brings to the starting line-up that Webster doesn’t. Against a lousy team like the TWolves the defensive limitations of “going small” may not be readily apparent, but trust me they will be exposed in time.
I also like the combination of Rudy and Bayless in the second unit, but that doesn’t necessarily depend on Blake being in the starting line-up as I argued in my Fanpost entitled “Who has the highest PER for the Blazers.”
by upper left corner on Nov 9, 2009 8:39 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Blake brings ball handling and the ability to recognize plays.
Martell has yet to do either of these with confidence. That is why Martell is not in there.
by OmoriumVerum on Nov 9, 2009 9:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think this is right
We were extremely stagnant. Nate went for overkill to get movement and ball handling and passing.
Blake is very good at spacing and moving to the open spot, better than Martell. Better than Martell at ball handling and passing.
This is probably transitional, to establish some patterns which should continue when Rudy or Martell come into the starting lineup, which will almost certainly happen.
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5
by jscot on Nov 9, 2009 10:48 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
How do you have overkill when it comes to ball movement?
Is too much ball movement a bad thing? I know in some instances it can be, but for the majority of the time it’s a huge factor in winning. There are plenty of great defenders in the league, but I don’t know anyone who can move as fast as a crisply passed ball.
by OmoriumVerum on Nov 9, 2009 12:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
TAKE OUT BLAKE AND START RUDY!!
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out, burns out farms, and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
"New Man Law: If you don't show up for the draft you don't get to come later if you're picked. If you believe in yourself, show up and sit there. If nobody else believes in you, take it and cry like a man...in front of the cameras."
-Dave
by faith on Nov 9, 2009 8:43 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
As I said in another post
This line up with Blake and Miller is 2-0. There should be no complaints from any of the fans. Yes it hasnt been tested vs elite teams but, its 1 lineup that has worked great so far, even giving us our 2 best wins so far. I personally have no kinda probs with it and I also know for a fact that this lineup wont start every game. I heard in the Spurs game that Greg Popovich switches his lineups around until January, by then, he settles with a first unit and a second unit and finishes the season like that, only rarely changing his lineups after that. It makes sense especially when you are adding a new player(s) into the rotation, some guys skills just naturally work well with others while some players have the opposite effect on each other. Nate is trying to find our most cohesive units to employ them vs different opponent lineups. Right now, we have 1 starter down(Batum) and we have technically 2 new players to integrate with Miler and Webster. That makes it tough to decide who might be better vs another team. Personally, I think our coaches are doing a fine job.
Thanks for the post. It was a great read. You get a rec from me.
The Dude: Hey, careful, man, there's a beverage here!
by cavejunctionblazer on Nov 9, 2009 11:26 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
I like the lineup against a lot of teams
I would like it more if we used Rudy rather than Blake.
We still need Martell (or Batum when he returns) against high scoring wings.
by jksnake99 on Nov 9, 2009 11:44 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Pair o' dimes shift =
when Blake and Miller are on the floor together and both record assists.
(Apologizing in advance of your groans)
by CatMan2 on Nov 9, 2009 1:28 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Wow.
That was a lot of effort you put in to blowing that balloon up!
The paradigm shift, however, is not league-wide. It is on the Blazers, and it is little to do with playing three guards.
WE NOW HAVE A POINT GUARD WHO CAN EFFECTIVELY ATTACK AND DISTRIBUTE THE BALL, WHO UNDERSTANDS MIXING TEMPO AND POINT OF ATTACK, WHO UNDERSTANDS THE GAME OF BASKETBALL!
And that is a paradigm shift for these Blazers. But I think we’ve been seeing it in the NBA for some time now. Ever hear of Ervin Johnson?
by Blazin' on Nov 9, 2009 1:37 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Great post
In future efforts, please make use of the “jump”. Your mobile/iPhone readers will be grateful.
by jiminut on Nov 10, 2009 5:16 AM PST via mobile reply actions 0 recs

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