Stats 101: Averaging The Turnover

In the NBA one of the major dreaded enemies of any team, is the turnover. Not only did you lose the ball, but you gave it up freely. Where it gets really bad is when said opponent capitalizes on your turnovers and actually turns them into extra points. The Blazers, as with every team early in the season, has had its ups and downs with the turnovers. Some of the stats I found pretty surprising, especially when the teams that are considered "elite"  seemed to have alot of turnovers. Anyways, check out my numbers below.

Chapter 1: 86 Games' Turnover Averages

First of all, I analyzed the stats every game so far this season to see which team had the most Turnovers(TOs) and how that affected the wins and losses. Out of 85 games so far :

Edited Note: In 5 games the teams tied in TOs, and therefore neither team had more TOs than the other. Therefore, I didnt count those 5 games, so its actually an 80 game average. Just to confuse you even more, 86 total games have been played thus far, but 1 game wasnt finished being played when I did this, so I didnt add that game in either.

So out of 80 games so far:

The team with the (MOST) TOs-

won: 34/80  43%

lost: 51/80  64%

Or to put it another way:

The team with the (LEAST) TOs-

won: 51/80  64%

lost: 34/80  43%

So if you have the least amount of TOs, you have about a 60% chance to win. That Simple.

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Chapter 2: Blazers Averages So Far

In 6 games played so far the Blazers are averaging 14.4 TOs and their opponents are averaging 13.2 TOs. That is definitely why Ive been saying that the Blazers are outworking themselves and also a big part of why we are 3-3. Whats weird is that the Blazers turnovers have not followed the 60%/40% W/L percentages up above in chapter 1. Here is the Blazers first 6 games:

Game1: 26TOs(POR)  to 16TOs(HOU) yet we still won. 1- 0

Game2: 7TOs(POR)  to 8TOs(Den) yet we lost 1-1

Game3: 15TOs(POR)  to 14TOs(HOU) we lost 1-2

Game4: 14TOs  to 19TOS(OKC) easy win 2-2

Game5: 10TOs  to 12TOs(ATL) we lost 2-3

Game6: 14 TOs  to 10TOs (SAS) yet we won. 3-3

Well as I said we dont fit the TO Average mold so far. The games we shoulda won or lost based on the model werent always true with us. Which indicates to me 1. averages change when looking at 6 games compared to 80 and 2. the Blazers have shot themselves in their own foot in multiple games by overworking themselves and 3. TOs can affect a game in many ways. For example Phoenix has had so many games with more TOs than their opponent but they still won. Also it shows me that to overcome turnovers, you better be a high scoring team (which we are not) because giving away free points makes it pretty hard to win.

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Chapter 3: Comparing the Blazers to the NBA

First of all the Blazers arent the worst TO team nor are they the best at protecting the rock. The Blazers are actually ranked 16th for 86 total TOs. And,  while we turned the ball over 86 times so far, our opponents only turned it over 79 times.  Toronto, (the HEDO-nists that they are) is actually leading the NBA with the least amount of TOs with 59. Here is the list:

Teams Total TOs for the first 85 games :

1. TOR 59

2. SAS 62

3. CHI 63

4. SAC 65

5. MIL 67

6. UTA 70

7. GSW 71

8. DAL 74

9. DET 77

10. NOR 78

11. ATL 80

12. OKC 80

13. ORL 81

14. PHI 81

15. DEN 85

16.POR 86

Other Notables:

22. LAL 94

25. CLE 101

27. BOS 102

28. PHX 104

Atleast we have less TOs than LAL, CLE BOS and PHX.

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Charter 4: Assist To Turnover Ratio

Right now, we are ranked 19th in AST/TO ratio at 1.24 ast per TO. Not to bad, not because the 1.24 is actually a good thing but that only .60 seperates the Blazers at  #19 from the Celtics at #1. Boston's AST/TO is 1.84. Here is the top 5:

AST/TO RATIO for NBA first 85 games:

1. Boston 1.84

2. Toronto 1.78

3. Orlando 1.68

4. Utah 1.63

5. New Orleans 1.63

Other Notables:

9. Cleveland 1.48

12. Denver 1.44

13. L*kers 1.40

19. Portland 1.24

Not much space between us(POR) at 1.24 and #1(BOS) at 1.84, and not much space between us and the champs(LAL) at 1.40.  

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Chapter 5:  Conclusion

As far as im concerned, Portlands TOs arent to much of a concern. We have 2 of the best PGs for NOT turning it over. Although, last years we had a per game average at 12.9TOs ranked 8th, last years seasonal average of 1.58 AST/TO  ranked 10th, we have enough time to catch up to last years numbers. Last year, LA won the championship being ranked 20th for total TOs (1103) and  ranked 3rd in AST/TO at 1.73 and ranked 11th at 13.5 TOs per game. So far this year, the champs 1.40 AST/TO is good enough for 13th on the list, but is also under their last years stats,  just like us.

Right now we are #17 in total assists with 107 compared to Boston at #1 with 188. Sheesh, Boston is also #1 in AST/TO at 1.84. Assists are irrevocably connected to turnovers, hence the fact we have a ratio for the stat. As for the Blazers, we are neither the worst in this stat nor the best. We are totally average, right in the middle. Personally I think our TO's will go down and our AST/TO will go up(especially when Miller gets more familiar with the team), but only time will tell.

Peace,

Cave Junction Blazer