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Stats 101: Whats The Deal? Let Me Explain...



Okay--first of all let me introduce myself--im the Cave Junction Blazer and im crazy. Crazy because I spent all this time analyzing stats, just for my own joy, when I could be making the hard earned dough I need to pay bills. Oh well, I work for myself and I only have to commute to my garage which is about ten feet from where I sit typing this right now.

Anyways, I spent many hours pouring over the stats from all the games so far this season. After last night there were 69 games total played so far. I went over the stats to see what stat categories the winning teams won in. I wanted to get an idea of how important each stat was to winning and then compare the average stats from the rest of the teams to the Blazers and see what I get. The results are very interesting.

Chapter 1: Stat Junky

So first of all I looked at these categories of stats and put an "x" if the winning team won that category. The categories are--Offensive Rebounds, Rebounds, Steals, Assists, Free Throws Made, Field Goal %, 3pointers, FastBreak Points, and Blocks. Basically most of the categories youll see on any typical recap. Some things to note, if the team tied in the stat, I dont count it. For example if both teams had 15 assists in the same game, no team beat the other team in assists, so neither team wins that category.

Here is the overall NBA average for the winning team led stat for the first 69 games:

Offensive Rebounds--    29/69 42% winning team lead stat (i.e.29 times a team won leading in off rebs)

Rebounds total-   42/69 61% winning team lead stat

Steals-    40/69 58% winning team lead stat

Assist-    45/69 66% winning team lead stat

Free Throws Made-    42/69 61%winning team lead stat

Field Goal % -    48/69 70% winning team lead stat

3Pointers made-    41/69 60% winning team lead stat

Fast Break Poionts-    40/69 58% winning team lead stat

Blocks -    37/69 54% winning team lead stat

For me that means that FG%,Ast, Free throw and Rebs (in that order)are the most important stats to winning a game.

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Chapter 2 : Going Stat Crazy

Here is some stats that are important to note:

0/69--0 teams lead all 9 categories once so far out of 69 games. The closest was Nov4 Orl vs PHX. Orl lead every category but off rebs.

0/69-- the times a team won by winning only 1 or 2 categories.

4/69- times that a team won the game with only 3 categories won. Oct30-OKC vs Det(OKC won), Oct31-Por vs Hou(Hou won), Nov3-LAL vs OKC(LAL won) and Nov4- LAL vs Hou (LAL won).

17/69--times a team won with 4 categories won

18/69-- times a team won with 5 winning categories

17/69-- times a team won with wininnig 6 categories

10/69-- times a team won with winning 7 categories

1/69-- times a team won by winning 8/9 categories

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Chapter 3: Blazers Comparisons

Did that make sense?  The winning team lead those statistical categories that percentage of the time. Now lets look at the Blazers first five games and see where they faired vs the NBA average.

 

Oct 27-- Hou vs POR Portland won

Portland won 6/8 categories: Offrebs, rebs, ast, fg%, 3pts and Blocks

Oct29 -- Den vs Por Denver won

Denver won 4/8categories: Steal, freethrows, fg% and fastbreak points

Oct31-- Hou vs POr Houston won

Houston won 3/8 categories: steals, 3pts, fastbreak points

Nov1-- Por vs OKC Por wins

Por won 5/8 categories:rebs,stl,ast,fg%, and 3pts

Nov 3 ATl vs POR ATL won

Atl won 6/8 categories:offrebs, rebs,freethrows, fg%,fastbreak and blocks

(If Portland didnt win, they either lost or tied the categories that arent marked.)i.e. Por lost to Den-- in that game, Por lost or tied these categories-- rebs,off rebs, AST, FTM, 3pts,BLK

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Chapter 4: Double Figure Scorers

Now I already told you I was crazy. I went on to do another comparison. I wanted to see how scoring affected wins. So I looked at all 69 games again and I added up all the double figure scorers for each game. I did this because it seemed to me that teams that lead in double figure scorers usually won games. It isnt always true, for example team A might have a bench that outscored team B, or team A might have had less double figure scorers, but they had more points altogther. WHy is this important, well when you look at these numbers you might see some things like I did. Here we go:

Out of 69 total games:

1 team (Hou) has had 1 game with 8 double figure scorers! (Houston vs Utah Nov2)

0 teams have had 7 double figure scorers out of 69

14 teams have had 6 double figure scorers winning 9 losing 5

43 teams have had 5 double figure scorers winning 31 and losing 12**

51 teams have had 4 double figure scorers winning 23 and losing 28**

21 teams have had 3 double figure scorers winning 2 and losing 19

5 teams have had 2 double figure scorers winning 2 and losing 3

1 team has had 1 double figure scorer only winning 0 losing 1

**--- 4 and 5 double figures scoring are the highest for winning and losing

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Chapter 4: Blazers Comparisons Part 2

Its crazy to me, but after looking at those numbers, I realize that to win most of your games, you need atleast 5 scorers in double figures. (and win atleast 4 categories)You can win alot of games with 4 scorers in double figures but the losses go way up as well. So far this year Portland has 5 games--in those 5 we had 1 game with 5 double figure scorers and it was a win!

game 1 vs HOU--- Por 4  Hou 4 Por Won

game 2 vs DEN-- Por 3 Den 2 (I hate to say it but DENVER is a beast in every stat so far, but thats coming up soon)

game 3 vs HOU-- Por 3 Hou 3 Hou Won

game 4 vs OKC-- Por 5 Okc3 Por won

game 5 vs ATL-- Por 3 ATL 5 ATL won

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Chapter 5: Keep Your Enemies Close

First of all lets look at Denver since they are undefeated and in our division.  In my opinion, they are playing the best ball in the NBA right now. I hate to say it but its true. So far they are #1 in offensive efficiency. Out of 5 games they are averaging 115.4 points per game! to only 101.8 for their opponents. The only game they didnt hit 100 points in was vs Portland. In the double figures stats, Denver is beating the odds. In 5 games, their double figure scores are:

game 1 vs Utah-- Den 5  utah 6!!  Den won!!

game 2 vs Por-- Den 2  Por3 !! Den WOn!!

game3 vs Mem-- Den 5 Mem 5 Den won

game 4 vs IND-- Den 4 Ind 4 Den won

game 5 vs NJN-- Den 6 IND 6 Den won

In their first 2 games Denver had the least Double Figure Scorers and still won both times!  Now lets look at how Denver competed in the categories vs their opponents.

Game 1 vs Utah- Denv won FG%, Off Rebs, STLS, BLKS, Fst Brk PTS (5 of 9 categories)

Game2 vs POR- Den won FG% , FT, STLS, FBP(Fast Break Points) (4 of 9)

Game3 vs Mem- Den won 3pts, FT, Off Rebs, AST, STL (5)

game4 vs IND- Den won FG%, 3PTs, FT, Off Rebs, AST, Rebs (6)

game5 vs NJN- Den won FG%, 3PTS, FT, AST, STL, BLK, FBP (7)

Now lets look at the L*kers first 5 games.

Double Figure Scorers:

Game1 vs LAC-- LAL 4  LAC 4 LA won

game2 vs DAL-- LAL 4 DAL 4 LA Lost

game3 vs ATL-- LAL4  ATL 4 LA won

game 4 vs OKC -- LAL 4  OKC 4 LA won

game 5 vs Hou-- LAL 4 Hou 5 LA won!

In every game but 1 those double figures scorers were Kobe(5), Artest(4), Bynum(5), Odom(5),Shannon Brown(1). Now lets see how the Champs face the categories test.

Game 1 vs LAC-LAL won off rebs, STL,FT, 3pts LAL won (5)

game2 vs DAL- LAL won STL, 3pt, FBP LAL Lost (3)

game3 vs ATL- LAL won REB, STl, AST, FG%, FBP, BLK (6)

game 4 vs OKC-  LAL won STL, FT, FG%,  LAL won (3)

Gmae 5 vs HOU- LAL won STL, FT, BLK  LAL won (3)

LA isnt playing that great right now but they are still winning. 3 out of 5 games they only won 3 categories for 2 wins 1 loss. 1 game they won 6 categories and 1 game the won 4 categories. They lead all 5 games in Steals. They lead 1 game in Rebs, 1 game in Off rebs, 1 game in asists. But that is why they are the champs, they do all the other little things necessary to win.

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Chapter 5: Conclusion

 

The hot teams right now are dominating the game with 5 or more double figure scorers. Field Goal % is the single most important aspect of winning a game. You obviously have to make your shots. Assists are the 2nd most important part of the game. And that is really a reflection of your point guard play. The Blazers have had subpar pg play this year and its indicative in our record of 2 - 3. Then comes Rebounds and Free throws. We have won the rebound game in everygame but 1.

My opinion is that we the BLazers are working twice as hard as most teams right now because of the litle things we arent doing more than the big things we are. If you look at the L*kers, they havent done to well, having 2 games won by 1 point in OT and also having 3 of 5 games where they won 3 categories only. Yet they only have 1 loss. Again, its the little things that take you over the top. Denver is crushing opponents right now, by an average of 14 points! They average 115 points per game! Yeah, it wont stay like that all season, but they are hot right now no doubt about it.  What the Balzers need to do, is take a deep breath, and get back to the basics. So far we have had subpar performances as a team in categories and in double figure scoring.

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Chapter 6: Q and A

Do we have the potential to be a top 3 team in the west? Absolutely.

Are we a top 3 team right now? Not even close.

Will we be a top 3 come playoff? 3 or 4 seed is my best guess.

Will we make the playoffs? Without a doubt.

Will we make atleast 50 wins? Again, I believe so.

What will our record be after 20 games? My guess is 12-8.

Will we make a big move this season? Almost garaunteed.

Am I disappointed by the slow start? Sure, but not too worried about the season yet.

Which Blazers need to step it up? Point Guards

What grade would you give ODEN so far? B+

What Grade would you give Roy? A-

What grade would I give Nate? C+

Hedo or Miller? Miller all the way.

Whose played better Blake or Miller?  Blake, but only just barely.

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Chapter 7: The End

Well, thats it. Im geting board with this whole typing thing. Its taking me like 6- 8 hours to put this all together. I hope my fellow fans dont eat me alive for it. But I also hope you are able to glean some cool info and stats from all this gobbely gook. Please go easy on me if you disagree with any of this, but also dont hesitate to let me know what you think, I love the conversation. Again, the Blazers are my favorite team in the world, and its fans are like one big family to me, so I hope yall enjoy this post.

 

Peace Out,

Cave Junction Blazer

 

PS--1 more cool stat-- In the Nov 1 game vs OKC Martell had 4 steals. It was the first time a Blazer had 4 steals since January 24 2009 ,when Roy got 10 steals in 1 game vs the Wizards! One last thing, I checked and double checked for typos and that sorta thing so If you notice anything spelled wrong--feel free to point it out so I can correct it--Thanks Again...Enjoy!

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