OT: Petitio Principii, Worldview, and Sports Related Conversations
Over the last couple of weeks, the Blazers have been up and down. Some players have stellar games, other nights, the same players have terrible games. And I believe that I have noticed a pattern. Not in player performances but in fan reactions. And I think it makes a rather concerning study into how we root for our favorite teams and/or favorite players.
Nearly all of us like to think that we have opinions based on facts. That’s the standard by which opinions are judged in our general worldview. It’s a Western worldview, and perhaps a Modern world view. (I might go so far as to say that it is post modern as well, but not even post modernists can come to an agreement on what post modernism is, so I shall not try to attempt a guess.) Not every worldview accepts these conditions. But I dare say that enough of us here live by them well enough.
So, does this bear out in reality? Are our opinions based on facts? Based on what I have observed, I would have to say no. It appears that nearly everyone forms an opinion first, and then finds the facts that support that opinion. This is the logical fallacy petitio principii (literally "assuming the initial point"). We assume our conclusion is true in trying to prove that it is true. And this bears out after each game.
For example, let’s take the question "Should we trade Travis Outlaw?" It is my hypothesis that the opinion of nearly every poster has already been decided before assessing the evidence. When Travis has a good game, those who have decided to keep him are confirmed by finding the evidence that they were looking for, and use it to validate their predetermined opinion. They say, "See, I knew Travis was a keeper!" When Travis has a bad game, the evidence is dismissed as not pertaining to the equation, "after all, everyone has bad nights sometimes." And they are confirmed in their opinions because of this.
The same is true for the other side. If Travis has a good game, it is used to confirm the opinion, that is, used as a justification to trade: "Get rid of him now, while his trade value is high." If Travis has a bad game, it is an even greater confirmation: "how many nights are we going to let him lose the game for us?"
It doesn’t seem to matter the issue, Outlaw, Miller, McMillan, Oden, Blake, Bayless, this principle is nearly constant. Sides are taken, then facts are marshaled with which to take the field. Rarely are any minds ever changed. Rarely is anyone persuaded. But this is exactly how our society operates these days. Whether Democrat or Republican. Whether pro-life or pro-abortion. Whether theist or atheist. Everything is decided subjectively in the public square. And that is a disaster of idiotic proportions just waiting to happen, or, more accurately, has already been happening for the last 20+ years.
We have completely fallen to the logical fallacy of petitio principii. In matters of sports, in matters of politics, in matters of religion, no matter the side, everyone in our culture is guilty of succumbing to this error. Idiocracy may have been prophetic.
Now, I don’t have an issue with taking a side. Taking a side is particularly what the facts are there for. If people didn’t take sides on whether or not to trade Outlaw then it would be pretty boring around here. If people didn’t take sides on what kind of coach McMillan is for our team, then why would anyone bother?
But without facts in charge of forming opinions, conversations become more shallow. When facts form opinions, they create nuances and ideas. When opinions assume facts, they create stale and repetitive bickering. Perhaps it is a difficult trap from which to escape. We have been well trained in it after all. It is never easy to adjust one’s worldview consciously. In fact, I am probably guilty of such a logical fallacy even from within this argument. It certainly wouldn’t surprise me. But perhaps in identifying the issue, we can at least begin to crawl out from under it.
14 recs |
66 comments
Comments
I used to think that people form opinions based on reason and available data.
However, your cogent arguments and fact-centric approach have caused me to change my mind.
by CatMan2 on Nov 4, 2009 8:27 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
I form initial opinions
but then change my mind based on reason and available data. I suppose I could be called a flip flopper because I’ll debate a stance until a better argument comes along. I do tend to think this is better, in general, than the man who holds his stance and Monday and Wednesday REGARDLESS of what new information came in Tuesday. I also think it’s better than those who never form opinions and so never act on them (not basketball, but life in general).
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
"I told Pau the Lakers never win here in Portland; I think it's great." -- Rudy Fernandez
by ratbastird on Nov 5, 2009 7:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Have you seen Idiocracy? It's an interesting movie.
Love.
by L-TrainFTW! on Nov 4, 2009 8:29 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
it's funny...
because it’s true.
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
"I told Pau the Lakers never win here in Portland; I think it's great." -- Rudy Fernandez
by ratbastird on Nov 5, 2009 7:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
But seriously
I once read (most of) a book about voting, which made me quite upset. The author or authors claimed that in a democracy it is essential to have a fairly large segment of the voting populace who do NOT have strong opinions, who are thus able to be easily swayed by one of the blocs representing the opinions of society’s elites should they be in conflict. The desirable characteristics of these swing voters included lower intelligence, apathy, etc.
They envisioned chaos as the probable result in the event that all voters took an avid interest in civic affairs.
As I recall, the book was intended for grad students in political science, and as far as I know, this kind of thinking is taken seriously by powerful people and those who work most closely with them.
by CatMan2 on Nov 4, 2009 8:43 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Interesting
I can understand that you don’t want to have a two party system with two sides polarized and unmoving. To some extent we have this now and it’s extremely harmful. Work is unable to get done.
A population of uneducated people to manipulate sounds horrible and it’s interesting that the authors would take that perspective. It justifies the elite holding those without down.
Reality, to me, would seem to be that you want people who operate outside of that polarization, ARE educated, but aren’t willing to take sides or are willing to change sides based on the facts of the situation.
I also wonder if those books are strictly looking at America’s two party system, which I think is amazingly flawed. Despite the polarization, you have two parties in power that are amazingly difficult to remove and when one wins, half the country is alienated. It pushes for people to push to the extreme left or right when most people are centrist.
I believe our founding fathers got a lot right, but I think they were dead wrong on the two party system.
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
"I told Pau the Lakers never win here in Portland; I think it's great." -- Rudy Fernandez
by ratbastird on Nov 5, 2009 8:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
They didn't put two parties in the Constitution or anything, did they?
My history may be lacking a little, but haven’t there been third parties started which have become successful and even supplanted one of the two parties?
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5
by jscot on Nov 5, 2009 8:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
you are correct sir
Started out with the whigs I believe. however, it took many years major upheaval in order for that party to go away and another to take it’s place. (actually, i’m wrong… the Whigs were the second party change… http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_parties_in_the_United_States)
The way elections works does not support multiple parties though. What if 49% of the population leans towards canidate A, 49% lean towards B. 1% think they’re both shcmucks and vote for C.
In our two party system we can go A or B. C isn’t really an option and so we choose the lesser of two evils. C could even be up to 23%, but they’re still not viable. You don’t want A to win (or B) so you vote for the opposite, not the best candidate.
Lets say you can RANK your votes. A gets your number 1, C gets number 2, B gets three. Assume that B voters hate A. B gets 1, C gets 2, B gets three.
The candidate with the highest number wins. That 2% that voted for C as number one now tip the balance, vote wasn’t wasted, and C wins. You now move away from the polarization of only two options existing and answers existing.
At some point this can be watered down (10 candidates) and that would need to be controlled.
I think the two party system is seriously flawed, and the system was set up the way it was with intent. i believe Benjamin voiced some concerns over it at the time if it’s inception, but it’s been a rather long time.
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
"I told Pau the Lakers never win here in Portland; I think it's great." -- Rudy Fernandez
by ratbastird on Nov 5, 2009 8:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I've heard this argument before
but we have four parties in Scotland, three in England, and our British parliamentary elections use a “first past the post” system as well. The SNP and the Liberal Democrats get elected as well as Conservatives and Labour. I’m not actually sure why it works over here and not over there.
But we’re probably at least as polarized as you are.
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5
by jscot on Nov 5, 2009 8:31 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
There are large infrastructures
and barriers to entry for third party candidates to have a fair shake. A big deal a few years back was that for the Green party to qualify for federal funding in subsequent elections, they needed to something like 5% of the total popular vote in a federal election. Factor in the importance of funding in elections and the requirements to even get on the ballot in many states and it places a huge burden on 3rd parties to prove themselves viable before the system treats them even close to equally as it does the GOP or Democratic parties.
by Royster on Nov 5, 2009 8:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
interesting point on polarization
as I’ve heard it’s even worse in Britian, come to think of it. I suppose when I think of this process, I’m more in consideration of the president or Governor’s than I am of other offices.
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
"I told Pau the Lakers never win here in Portland; I think it's great." -- Rudy Fernandez
by ratbastird on Nov 5, 2009 12:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If we allow facts and facts alone to inform our opinion, we would live in a soulless mechanistic
hell.
What informs opinions are values, and that is as it should be. There are an infinite number of facts in the world. The world is rich in facts. The reason we select facts to support our opinions is because we can. You can never marshall all the facts. It’s an illusion.
If you have good values, values in tune with reasonable levels of personal, social and ecological responsibility, you will make reasponably good decisions absent any facts whatsoever.
If your values are in the crapper, no facts will save you.
by raoulduke on Nov 4, 2009 9:05 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
Well-said!
To continue with the Travis Outlaw example: I would like the Blazers to keep him. But, my opinion has more to do with the fact that I just happen to like Travis than with arguments from advanced statistics, say. If Travis was just a terrible player, it would make me sad, but I guess I’d say the Blazers should trade him. But, since he’s “good enough”, then I think they should keep him. Even if they could get somebody who, by fact-based, rational criteria, was somewhat better or somewhat cheaper. Obviously, they aren’t going to be able to trade him for CP3 or the like, so it really comes down to whether or not I like Travis. I do. He’s kind of like part of the (way) extended family.
by CatMan2 on Nov 4, 2009 9:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ummm, wtf...
since when do values have anything to do with forming opinions? and when does living a world in which we use facts alone to support our opinions devolve into a soulless mechanistic hell? I think this is a good point to introduce the logical fallacy of equivocation. you, raoulduke, are equivocating sound argumentation (allowing facts to inform our opinion) with formulaic thinking (a soulless mechanistic hell). if we follow your logic, all quandaries of the same sort would be decided in the same way. but i dare say that this is not how all problems are solved, and i think reality would bear this claim out. claiming that facts are nothing more than inputs in a formula for living is naive and, well, wrong. facts are verifiable statements of truth.
now, let us look at your argument. your main claim is that in the absence of values, no fact can truly support an opinion. you assume that the only true (non-illusory) opinion is the one back by values, whatever those maybe, and that any opinion back by fact is illusory. thus, the validity of an opinion is dependent on the values held by the one holding the opinion, not on how well (or how poorly) the facts marshaled support the opinion. however, you use facts to support your assertion of what consists of a true opinion. your statement that “[t]here are an infinite number of facts in the world” is a statement of fact. you are passing it off as verifiable statement of truth. there is nothing qualifying or limiting that statement to the realm of belief. you also say “[t]he world is rich in facts.” this you also pass off as fact, while offering no hint that this might be, in reality, an opinion. then, you make the claim that good values, with a pinch of responsibility in different areas of life, will lead one to make “reasponsably [sic] good decisions absent any facts whatsoever.” based on the definition of fact provided above, this means that a finely honed sense of right and wrong will lead one to make “good decisions” in the absence of any verifiable truth. WHAT?? Then, you claim that if one has bad values, one is lost regardless of whatever facts one may know or possess.
sir, i think your argument is a shining example of begging the question, or petitio principii. at the outset of your argument, you assume that good values alone can inform opinion. after making 3 statements of opinion to support your initial assertion, you then state that your assumption, coupled with reasonable levels of responsibility will lead to good decisions in the absence of any fact. your coup de grace is your final statement, in which you assert that the negation of your initial assumption (if bad values, then bad opinions) as your conclusion. your final statement is merely the yang to the yin of your initial claim. you assume that what you are attempting to prove is already true on the mere face of it, without providing any support.
when we talk about forming opinions, we generally are talking about making arguments. an argument is an assertion supported with evidence. the validity of an argument stems from whether the evidence used actually supports the assertion or not. there are not an infinite number of facts in the world. there are not infinite opinions. the knowledge of man is finite. we know certain things, and we know we don’t know certain things. But there’s an unknown amount of things about which we know nothing. we can only make valid arguments from the things about which we know because these are the only things about which we have tangible knowledge. And we can only speculate about the things we know we don’t know. We use facts to support an assertion so that we may convince others that our assertion is correct. We do not use facts because we feel like it or because using facts is an exercise in free will. we use facts to ground our decisions in a verifiable reality. to you, facts are mere impediments to well-formed opinions in the face of good values.
please, for your sake, read your own words before you make grandiose claims about the relative merits of “values” versus “facts” in the formation of opinions. you don’t support your thesis with anything verifiable other than your own opinions about the nature of “facts.” this is not an ad hominem attack or an attempt to belittle you. you stated your ideas, and i attempted to evaluate the logic behind them.
i encourage you to think about what a fact is, and what it is not. why do you think that values are the proper support for opinions, rather than fact? are values more tangible, or more true, or more verifiable than fact? these are serious questions. i hope i do not stymie conversation about this topic, as i find it eminently fascinating.
fat jesus lives.
by berrygraham on Nov 5, 2009 12:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Goodness!
Do you really read all of that in to what raoulduke writes?
Why don’t you stop and try to READ what he is saying instead of “evaluating the logic” of it?
Because I don’t think it is so complicated. We are not machines, us humans. And though our minds are capable of impressive calculation and processing, WE DO NOT CALCULATE OR PROCESS IN A VOID FREE FROM OTHER PARTS OF OUR SELVES.
In other words, it presumes very much to think that we are even capable of forming opinions on the basis of fact alone.
Raoul takes the next step, which I quite agree with, that these other parts of ourselves, are not only unavoidable, they are essential.
Ironically enough, it seems you are falling victim to the PP yourself, eager for a test case for your equivocation fallacy, which sounds, frankly, like a midterm answer.
“Fact.” To me, the word reeks of arbitrariness. When confined correctly to its definition, “fact” implies a triviality. It is the emotional and moral content associated with facts that lend them and life, significance.
by Blazin' on Nov 5, 2009 2:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone who can dispute the statement "the world is rich in facts" leads far too narrow
a life to pay much attention to.
Human beings can only survive, at least as self aware beings, by limiting the number of data points they process. There are many ways of applying the filter, ones values being an important selector of data. We can’t process it all. There’s too much. So what perceptual filters would you rather use? Accept facts on a first come first served basis? Use random data? What happens for most people is that their values is what shines the spotlight of consciousness on the mass of available fact. And those are the facts which are marshalled in support of argument.
I don’t think it’s a bad thing necessarily. Now some people’s value systems are so narrow and rigid that they cannot admit new data when it is brought to their attention. But Darwin has a plan for these people.
by raoulduke on Nov 5, 2009 9:01 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I prefer to say that Darwin has an “intelligent design” for these people.
My team went to the playoffs in my first year.
by pxilpooshr on Nov 5, 2009 9:24 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
such a good and important topic!
I have to chime in.
Nearly all of us like to think that we have opinions based on facts. That’s the standard by which opinions are judged in our general worldview. It’s a Western worldview, and perhaps a Modern world view.
I think this is pretty accurate. And while it is not the basis I use for evaluating another’s opinion or judgement, it is the cultural bias of our time.
But try to find the roots of this bias, and I believe you will find this is a fairly recent phenomenon. Call it hyper-factuality. Lazy thinking is age-old. But the favoring of the fact-based argument over some alternatives like common sense or wisdom coincides with the modern American love of technology, and the blind faith we place in science. These have overshadowed the classical liberal arts in our education system. Whereas higher education used to train people, albeit a select few, how to think, it seems that now it trains us how to make argument using facts. Boring, really.
I believe historically this trend is coupled with the industrial revolution and the modern concept of “labor.” It is why I am skeptical of factuality because I believe it is used to obscure more profound forms of human knowing, which are spirit and heart based. Because if we listened to these, we would find much about our modern society that is appalling. Instead, we are trained to emphasize facts, because the technocrat, industrialist, and capitalist can control these.
But without facts in charge of forming opinions, conversations become more shallow. When facts form opinions, they create nuances and ideas.
True, but if you go deeper, perhaps you will agree that it is not the facts that are creating nuance and idea. It is mental discipline and care in observation. Perhaps this is just another way of saying what you are, but I think the distinction is important because of hyper-factuality and its root causes. This goes back to the heart of the liberal arts education, which is to de-emphasize facts and stress reason. The disciplined observer is able to hold a theory in mind while still observing and looking for flaws in theory. This is the sleuthing mind, and while facts are important, they are incidental to this process.
by Blazin' on Nov 4, 2009 10:42 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Your thesis is interesting, although I don't agree with it
The way you write, you make it seem like people are pulling their opinions out of their [glutei]. However, people are forming their opinions around what they are observing on the basketball court.
For instance, look at Kevin Durant. People are seeing this kid put up huge scoring numbers, which would lead nearly everyone to believe that he not only is a great player, but he also helps his team on the court. However, (I am basing this off of last year’s numbers) Durant statistically hurt his team on the court when he was out there. Naturally, anyone who realizes this is going to automatically call the numbers an anomaly or find another reason to say this isn’t true, because (and I’m pretty sure that this is true for everyone) I believe what I see with my own two eyes over what the statistics show.
Therefore, perhaps you should clarify that people are forming their opinions based on “facts”, although those “facts” are just merely what they are observing. It seems like a simple clarification, but I believe it changes the whole essay.
Feel free to dissect this comment and tear it apart :P
"Your best?!?!! Losers always whine about their best. Winners go home and &^%@ the prom queen"
2008 Civil War: Oregon 65 - Oregon State 38
by cloudydays on Nov 4, 2009 11:36 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Its hard to see how a "fan" can be an objective observer
If you never watch Zach or Durant play and just look at their stats[except +/-] you would think they are great but I would not want either one on my team.
by southern oregon on Nov 5, 2009 12:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
"'Idiocracy' MAY have been prophetic"?
No, I’m pretty sure it IS prophetic. Along with 1984.
by Montavilla Steve on Nov 4, 2009 11:48 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Hi, welcome to Blazers Edge!
You must be new around here. For off-topic posts, we have a “Junk Drawer” where you can put random thoughts, links, and other random off topicness.
Just a friendly reminder…again, welcome to the site!
by prezofdeath on Nov 5, 2009 3:21 AM PST reply actions 3 recs
D'oh!
Totally forgot that’s where this is supposed to go! :)
πάτερ, ἄφες αὐτοῖς, οὐ γὰρ οἴδασιν τί ποιοῦσιν.
by T Darkstar on Nov 5, 2009 4:17 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the mods should look at this comment
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5
by jscot on Nov 5, 2009 4:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
it's like watching mod-on-mod violence
"oh dear god. Please be more irresponsible". - Claire
by idoltime on Nov 5, 2009 5:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't forget!
Mobile commenting available! Keep the conversation going.
by medmelon on Nov 5, 2009 6:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd say this off topic post
is far more complicated and complex and open to a lot of discussion and far more deserving than the junk drawer. It takes a look at how we as fans jump to conclusions/opinions and then lock down. Because of this, it’s not completely off topic. It’s topic is simply larger than the blazers or sports but can and does include them.
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
"I told Pau the Lakers never win here in Portland; I think it's great." -- Rudy Fernandez
by ratbastird on Nov 5, 2009 8:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's clearly marked OT
and the conversation it is engendering, as ratbastird says below, is not likely to work well in the JD.
Can’t we have OT fanposts? I realize that they could be a problem if there are too many of them, or they go so OT that they really don’t relate to BE (this one does not), etc. Until then, can’t we all just get along?
by CatMan2 on Nov 5, 2009 8:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He was joking
They are both moderators.
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5
by jscot on Nov 5, 2009 9:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Jokes are not permitted outside the JD
I get the paper, so I don't care!
by Name's Ash on Nov 5, 2009 9:54 AM PST up reply actions 5 recs
rec
"Your best?!?!! Losers always whine about their best. Winners go home and &^%@ the prom queen"
2008 Civil War: Oregon 65 - Oregon State 38
by cloudydays on Nov 5, 2009 11:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes I know. (Or, to blurt out what I first thought here, "Well, duh...")
The issue is still of interest.
by CatMan2 on Nov 5, 2009 11:40 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If he's joking
can we flag him for leaving out the “joke” font. Much like sarcasm, it can be difficult to identify if the correct font is not used.
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
"I told Pau the Lakers never win here in Portland; I think it's great." -- Rudy Fernandez
by ratbastird on Nov 5, 2009 12:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Fun stuff. I would suggest that there is nothing modern
about the worldview that bases opinion on facts.
Check out your Bible. A classic example is in I Corinthians 15. Paul asserts something as fact, cites supporting evidence for that fact which he considers to be conclusive, and then argues an entire point based on that fact. If the fact falls, his entire argument falls.
Many today would dispute the fact, but that is not relevant to my point. My point is that this worldview is nothing new — fact-based argumentation has been around for millenia. You could go back to Moses in Deuteronomy basing his whole challenge to the nation to behave a certain way based on certain facts about what God has done for the nation. Again, some might dispute those facts, or dispute that Deuteronomy goes all the way back to Moses, but it is fact-based argumentation that is more than 2500 years old. And it is an Asian, not a Western, source. You can find many other examples in your Old Testament.
In fact, it wasn’t until men like Kierkegaard and Barth that a contrary view really became popular in Judeo-Christian religion. Before the eighteenth century, really, if someone did not believe that things such as the virgin birth of Christ or His resurrection from the dead were facts, they simply rejected Christianity entirely. It was a question of facts driving opinion — if you reject the facts, you reject the religion.
Barth, especially, changed that with the idea that the facts didn’t actually really matter either way.
I actually think that we all tend to be fact-based in our opinions much more than you are saying. Yet, we do not all come to the same opinions. Why?
1. We don’t all have equal knowledge of all the facts. This may be because of limited access to facts (Nate and KP know things I don’t know), or laziness (I’m too lazy to chart all the times Travis touches the ball and analyze them).
2. We do not weight facts equally. Travis has a personality that is pleasing to many fans. That is a fact which is of great importance to annthefan, of lesser importance to some other fans, and totally irrelevant to AK1984. So who is being fact-based and who isn’t?
3. The facts can be hard to assess, because we paint with a broad brush. Who is a better defender, Martell or Nic? In actuality, Martell might be better for defending certain players like LeBron or Melo, while Nic might be better for defending other players, like Kobe.
4. Logical errors in processing facts. Perhaps you are correct that the biggest one is petitio principii, but there are others.
I think raoulduke’s comment is an important part of the discussion. Our values have a tremendous impact on how much weight we give to different facts. If I value entertainment, I place greater importance on Rudy’s contributions than another person who simply values wins. If I value character, I would rather see Travis on our team than Stephen Jackson — or at least, the value I place on character would be a factor pushing me in that direction.
In general, I think our opinions are a dynamic thing which are formed in part by values and in part by facts. We think certain things are important, the facts support those things, and that drives our opinions. We discard other facts as irrelevant because they don’t matter in our values system.
I doubt there is any society which is not largely fact-driven in their philosophy. It is just that values drive the weighting (and often the interpretation) of facts.
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5
by jscot on Nov 5, 2009 4:19 AM PST reply actions 4 recs
I agree that this general principle has been around forever
but it’s gotten much worse recently, for which I blame the internet. It’s very easy now to find some sort of pseudo-scientific argument for or against any sort of absurd thing you might believe in whether it’s that evolution is fake or that vaccination is turning your kid autistic. This essentially has people editing down their sources to those which confirm their own pre-determined beliefs regardless of the merit of the arguments on either side.
My issue is that general truths are generally becoming opinion-based. As in, someone “believes” that man’s activities aren’t having an affect on the Earth’s climate rather than something like that being accepted as fact due to the overwhelming scientific evidence. Or someone “believes” that vaccines are bad for children in spite of the evidence to the contrary.
All that said, I think pxilpooshr nails it below. It’s fine for people to form opinions before collecting the facts (even the scientific method calls for this), but the problem arises because people get emotionally invested in that opinion and are loathe to change it no matter what. This has only been made worse now that it’s possible to find supporting sources for any opinion we have now, no matter how dubious those sources may be.
by Royster on Nov 5, 2009 6:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You are right about emotional investment in our opinions
Ultimately, that probably comes down to this — too proud to admit we are/were wrong.
But part of the issue is that the facts are often complex and point in multiple directions. Your two examples are prime cases.
There are many complicated factors in the climate. In Roman times, they planted vineyards in Britain. Now, the weather is apparently much cooler than it was then. No, we don’t have precise temperature measurements, but we know they could grow things back then which we can’t grow now. That is a fact which doesn’t necessarily fit well with the “general truth” you cite.
Does that mean they had a different kind of grapevine back then which would fare better in a cooler climate, or does it mean it mean it is now cooler than it was? If the former, where’s the evidence? If the latter, how does this fit with the models?
How does sunspot activity factor in? The earth has gone through cooling and warming cycles before. Is that really factored in adequately in all the models? Do we know for sure? Isn’t this horribly complex?
Vaccinations? Haven’t some children had very bad reactions to vaccinations? If so, then someone’s belief that they are bad is also fact-based. The problem is not necessarily emotional investment. Sometimes it is an incomplete assessment of facts — considering the risks of an adverse reaction without considering the risks of the illness. I know some who home-teach in Britain are hesitant to vaccinate until the children are older because their children are relatively unlikely to be exposed to the disease, so they consider the risk of an adverse reaction to outweigh the risk of the disease. Are they wrong? I’m not sure. They are weighing the facts, but the facts for their case are different from the facts for others.
Many things are complex, and rarely do we have all the facts at our disposal. And the more facts that relate to a question, the more likely that we are not processing all of the facts properly, or placing an appropriate value/weighting on all of them.
Now back to basketball — there are many multiple facts that measure a player’s value to his team. Things like “fit”, both offensively and defensively, are impossible to measure statistically. We can study advanced stats and create new ones, but that will never give us all the facts. And because there are so many factors in what makes a valued basketball player, it is hard to be “factual” about it. We all overlook facts, and we all process facts differently. That isn’t to say there isn’t an answer, but it is hard to arrive at a solid answer, and intelligent and reasonable people will draw different conclusions.
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5
by jscot on Nov 5, 2009 8:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not saying there are no facts supporting the counter-examples
but that the over the top support to what are some fairly weak arguments against them are disproportionate to the strength of the arguments against them. It’s a scientific consensus that our activities are having an effect on the Earth’s climate (what exactly that effect is is still up in the air), and yet there seems to be a roughly 50-50 split among people in the general population who believe this. So we have a situation where people are essentially deciding on the explanation that best suits their prior beliefs rather than approaching with an open mind and choosing the most meritorious argument.
As far as the vaccination issue, the one study that supposedly found a connection between vaccines and autism has been discredited and multiple studies have found no connection. So asserting that there’s an issue may be “fact-based” but if you persist to believe in this despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, that doesn’t make the opinion logical.
Like I said, there are arguments or facts out there to support anything someone wants to believe, but that doesn’t make all arguments of equal value. All facts are not created equal in specific arguments. If I say Kobe Bryant was a better basketball player than Michael Jordan because he makes more threes, that’s a fact-based argument as well, but it’s ignoring that MJ was better at literally everything else.
I think of a fact-based opinion as something which takes into account as much information as is available on a subject and forms a conclusion based on that, not an opinion which someone has dredged up some facts to support without taking a critical eye to the opinion itself as well.
Basketball is obviously more nebulous because there’s so much of the game that can’t be determined exactly, as you said. Regardless of their stats, it’s unlikely we’ll be able to say for sure that Nic is better than Marty, or vice versa, or whether Travis is ultimately helping or hurting this team. Even when we arrive at an “answer” to something we’ll never be 100% confident (although I can say with 99.9% confidence that Lebron would help us more than Travis). But things like “how good would we be with Durant or Hinrich”, “Do we need to be playing Blake or Miller” will always remain a largely uncertain proposition. I don’t fault people having their opinions there, just as more evidence is gathered the rigidity of these opinions (at least one one side of the argument) should soften some, which I don’t think really happens a ton.
by Royster on Nov 5, 2009 8:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
In general, I agree
Though I wasn’t talking about the MMR/autism thing. Every vaccination has the potential for serious side-effects. But you are right, the MMR/autism scare apparently had no sound scientific basis.
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5
by jscot on Nov 5, 2009 9:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
if a cute blond 8 year old falls in the woods
you can be darn sure the media will be there to cover it for days on end.
My point is that sensationalism trumps facts many times and so we end up with conventional wisdom based on no sound scientific basis because the facts aren’t as exciting.
Just imagine if dufar was filled with blond 8 year old girls… I don’t think the US would stay so silent then.
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
"I told Pau the Lakers never win here in Portland; I think it's great." -- Rudy Fernandez
by ratbastird on Nov 5, 2009 12:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
more thoughts on this
people are essentially deciding on the explanation that best suits their prior beliefs rather than approaching with an open mind and choosing the most meritorious argument.
Why is this an either/or proposition?
Though science claims to be “objective,” studies are done with the expectation of a result. A fascinating result of modern physics is that the observer is not independent of the observed.
Thus the notion of objectivity itself is questionable.
Moreover, why wouldn’t one base their estimation of the functioning of a system on prior experience? Tempered with an accounting of new data.
The scientific method is quite limited by narrowness and our ability to weigh results against experience and expectation is valuable.
by Blazin' on Nov 7, 2009 6:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Where do these opinions that nearly everyone forms come from?
You have observed that they do not come from fact. So I wonder where they bubble up from? Observations? Experience? Peer pressure? Are they completely arbitrary?
Would it be best for someone to approach a dilemma as a blank slate and only begin to form an opinion after having carefully collected and tagged the facts?
I think the problem with opinions is not that they are formed before collecting facts, but rather that people are loath to change their opinions when faced with facts to the contrary.
My team went to the playoffs in my first year.
by pxilpooshr on Nov 5, 2009 6:24 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
As this is the way i work
I 100% agree. I welcome people to challenge my opinions based on the facts I have so that I can update and change them. Most people don’t appreciate having their opinions challenged. I personally think this is a tragedy because it closes off healthy debate.
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
"I told Pau the Lakers never win here in Portland; I think it's great." -- Rudy Fernandez
by ratbastird on Nov 5, 2009 8:31 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No logical construction of facts led me to be a Blazer fan.
The cowards never started
The weak died along the way
Only the strong survived
They were the Trailblazers
by lukeyhere on Nov 5, 2009 8:00 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
you need to find some better facts :)
I get the paper, so I don't care!
by Name's Ash on Nov 5, 2009 9:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Fact
Blazers are awesome.
Blazers… Awesome.
Fact.
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
"I told Pau the Lakers never win here in Portland; I think it's great." -- Rudy Fernandez
by ratbastird on Nov 5, 2009 12:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Darkstar you be a sharp cookie
I’d like to see you frame your discontent under the exploration of what it means to be a “fan”. I know you love them words and their origins. I’d be interested to see what you think about a the concept of a “reasonable fan”.
by EvilKaramazov on Nov 5, 2009 10:09 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Tim Riley said it best
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mI3fbrpkc_c
I get the paper, so I don't care!
by Name's Ash on Nov 5, 2009 1:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for all the thoughtful responses.
It was interesting to read your reactions to my hypothesis. Definitely a lot to reflect upon.
πάτερ, ἄφες αὐτοῖς, οὐ γὰρ οἴδασιν τί ποιοῦσιν.
by T Darkstar on Nov 5, 2009 5:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I completely agree with your view
Fire Nate.
Honor Alaa Abdelnaby.
First in the NBA. At least alphabetically
by OhOhOden on Nov 6, 2009 2:46 AM PST reply actions 3 recs
+92
"And in the end
The love you take
Is equal to the love you make." -The Beatles
by 92wastheyear on Nov 6, 2009 8:41 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Secret Message Win
My life has a superb cast, but I can't figure out the plot. --Woody Paige
by prezofdeath on Nov 6, 2009 9:16 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I saw that
but if I mentioned it, it wouldn’t have been a secret. You blew it.
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5
by jscot on Nov 6, 2009 10:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sorry! kill me now
please, do it, you know you want to
My life has a superb cast, but I can't figure out the plot. --Woody Paige
by prezofdeath on Nov 9, 2009 1:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You tempt me
But as I am preparing for world dominion, I’ve learned something of interest.
Punishment is so much more potent, fearsome, and enjoyable (depending on your perspective, of course) if it is delayed and the person never knows when it might fall.
Just think about it. If I kill you now, you won’t have to wonder when the blow might fall.
Or you could wonder if it is going to fall just before game 7 of the Finals this year, when we’ll be hosting the Celtics.
Or you could wonder if it is going to fall as you drive away from your wedding with your bride.
You’ll always wonder — when is jscot going to lower the boom?
Exquisite.
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5
by jscot on Nov 9, 2009 11:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You, my friend, have exposed the underbelly of blogdom
.
All of us want to be right. Here are some problems -
Sometimes we want to be popular more than we want to be right. By popular, I mean they want to be seen as prescient or knowledgeable and attract approval. We tend to go with the tide and align ourselves with previous arguments based upon that tide or reject ideas from someone not in the inner circle.
Sometimes we form opinions from events because we have an innate need to understand them and by understanding, control the event from recurring or cause it to occur more frequently. Once we have hit on a probable cause (often based on our biases) we feel ownership in that idea and defend it against the contrary facts.
Since we post anonymously we can allow the parts of our personality which are not often profitable in our physical environment. Some have even used multiple aliases to act different characters for fun. These is not problems until we find ourselves hurt by comments from others or, worse, find we have hurt others by our comments.
In our jobs or professions or school work we are not afforded these opportunities and in writing on a blog we have an opportunity to step out and dance! But it is also an opportunity to learn to form our opinions in such a way that they can be changed by facts or arguments providing additional perspectives. To not have to be right. It is our choice.
"Either way we have two phenomenal units. I'm excited to play with either one." - Martell Webster
by lee3022 on Nov 7, 2009 4:45 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
This is something
that I’ve wanted to approach for a long time.
There are a couple of tricky parts of the equation for me. The first is that truth is multi-faceted even when it’s simple and commonly-accepted. The fact “Andre Miller shot 2-9 tonight” is inarguable. But the cause, effect, and weight/inference-potential surrounding that fact are enough to keep people debating for a week. One of the strong tendencies in public discourse nowadays is to reduce the cloud of meaning in which each factual experience lies to a singular, simple point…as you have identified, one which they probably already agree with. Admitting that issues are complex and then taking time and care to deal with those complexities is a partial release from our bondage to the petitio principii. No one person could possibly hope to encompass, or even illuminate, the entirety of that cloud, which is why it’s valuable to hear (and respect) multiple viewpoints. Thus a place like this becomes valuable and perhaps educational. On the other hand those rushing to blow away the cloud, the better to get at “the fact”, have robbed that fact of its significance. By itself “2-9” is just a set of numbers, no matter how accurate. It’s only useful in context, which implies interpretation, which means dealing with the strengths and shortcomings of various points of view.
The second tricky issue is the modern propensity to reduce every experience to its significance/relevance to the self. Or perhaps it’s the reverse…to enlarge the self to the point that it impregnates every experience and thus defines them. Never have so many been invested in so much that they know so little about. Drama and conflict over such issues can be entertaining as long as everyone keeps a sense of humor. But I’m afraid the line between entertainment and reality has been irrevocably blurred, as evidenced by television “news” and various talk shows all over the radio. At the point we lose the difference entertainment gives way to tragedy and foolishness. Questioning any opinion becomes an assault on one’s person and dignity. Camps replace conversation. Angst replaces analysis. People would rather be offended than educated. Not only can we not explore the aforementioned cloud of meaning because real discussion is at a standstill, there is no meaning anymore except for “ME!” and “What I think!” The irony is obvious. Each self is participating in a communal experience (such as a blog) in search of something larger, or at least some affirmation outside of itself, while at the same time tearing both the fabric and the significance of said experience. How self-defeating is a world where people seek responses from people they won’t dare to hear? To quote the great philosopher Bette Midler, “It’s the soul afraid of dying that never learns to live.”
This was brought home to me the other day when I was reading a story at O-Live about a hunter who was shot while drunk and wielding a pistol by a family including an 11-year old, apparently in self-defense. A man died. A boy’s life was changed. Something that was supposed to be wonderful turned awful. And yet the comments were full of people opining this and justifying that. There shouldn’t be hunting. The cops are crooked. Drinking is wrong. This is natural selection. It’s the politicians. It’s economics. Even a couple of the oh-so-common, “See? I called this from the beginning when I first heard the story! [Bow before my greatness!]” Every once in a while can it not be about YOU? I can’t imagine how that translates through our brains. A guy died. “This is clearly all about me and my worldview! I must proclaim it so in order that everyone may know!”
The world would be simpler if everybody thought like me. The world would also suck and soon crumble from its lack of vision. I don’t understand how anyone can talk to people for any length of time and not get that. You lose the joy of discovery, wonder, learning, and real companionship. But apparently each of us being grand king of our own little world is more important. The sad thing is, the way we’ve set the kingdom up nobody will care. When facts are simple and they’re all about me, who’s left that matters?
—Dave
by Dave on Nov 8, 2009 3:19 PM PST reply actions 6 recs
better late than never :-)
My life has a superb cast, but I can't figure out the plot. --Woody Paige
by prezofdeath on Nov 9, 2009 1:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This is what I've always said
It’s about time people started to catch on to my brilliance.
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5
by jscot on Nov 9, 2009 11:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So you are basically saying that blogs are bad for the development of individuals in a society,
or at least self serving for all involved. Well, you have to figure anyone commenting is doing so to insert their “worldview/ego” into the conversation. If a person were able to separate their ego from their statement, they probably wouldn’t bother to make a statement at all. That said, there is no chance for us to arrive at the “truth” here, just a chance to entertain and be entertained by people with some similar interests. This is a good thread in that regard.
by wingzeta on Nov 9, 2009 11:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
this is what makes Blazers' Edge a great site
by Magnum on Nov 9, 2009 1:56 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I'm pretty sure that I'm the reason that Blazers Edge is such a great site.
Love.
by L-TrainFTW! on Nov 9, 2009 1:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's only a great site
when fatty is not on hiatus
"The match in Los Angeles is a good opportunity to begin to demonstrate that we want to make war." Rudy Fernández (translated)
by G_dubs on Nov 9, 2009 2:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

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