The Numbers Don't Lie: Our Problem is Offense, Not Defense

The Blazers are clearly struggling right now, but I'm a little surprised by all of the focus on their defensive effort.  Sure, there are plenty of ways in which the Blazers could improve on the defensive end, but they've actually been playing defense noticeably better this year.  The problem is that their offensive effeciency has plummeted. 

Last year the Blazers led the league in offensive effeciency, getting an impressive 113.9 points per 100 possessions.  They were 13th in defensive efficiency, allowing 107.8 points per 100 possessions.  Over the first five games of this season, the Blazers have improved on defense, allowing just 105.3 points per 100 possessions.  And that's against a group of teams that are all higher than average offensively.  That level of defensive effeciency would have been fifth best in the league last year (by the way, the Blazers are playing at an 88.5 pace this year, still very slow but slightly higher than the 86.6 pace they played at last year). 

The problem is that we've been decidedly mediocre on offense so far, scoring just 106.5 points per 100 possessions (13th in the league).  With even a marginally better offensive output, the Blazers might well be 5-0. 

So what's the problem?  Well, let's start with what the problem isn't.  It's not 3-point shooting.  The Blazers are averaging 7 made threes on 20 attempts per game this year.  Last year they averaged 7 made threes on 19 attempts.  The problem isn't foul shooting either.  The Blazers are averaging 22 made foul shots per game this year as opposed to 18.5 last year (thanks in part to an impressive 81.5% conversion rate--up from 75% last year). 

The problem is 2 point scoring. Last year the Blazers made 49% of their 2 point shots.  This year they're making just under 45%.  That's an indication that they're not getting as many easy shots. 

The good news, I suppose, is that the difference isn't stark.  The Blazers are scoring approximately 4 fewer 2-point buckets per night this year than last year (a difference they are partially compensating for by getting more points at the foul line).  Improving by three or four buckets a night is very doable.  Indeed, even a marginal improvement in the Blazers' non-exisitent transition game might be enough to do the trick.  I'd also like to see a lot more backdoor and baseline cuts for alley-oops, something we saw routinely last year but have seen very little of this year.  With Andre Miller on the team, our wings (Fernandez, Roy, Outlaw, Webster) should be looking to cut baseline to the hoop for alley-oops.  Miller is one of the best lob passers in the league, and he hasn't had a chance to use that particular skill set yet. 

Finally, and this is slightly off-topic, but I'd like to see Nate McMillan stop treating fouls like they are rollover minutes.  You don't get to keep unused fouls for future games and fouling out is not the end of the world.  There's no point keeping key players (*cough* Oden *cough*) on the bench for long stretches of the game only to have them finish with only 4 or 5 fouls.  Let the man play.  Taking him out the second he picks up a foul messes with his head, keeps both him and the team from finding a rhythm, and telegraphs to the refs that you don't trust him to play under control.  Last night we got murdered in the 4th quarter when Nate went small against a big, aggressive Atlanta lineup.  Aldridge was playing the 5 as if he thought Greg or Joel were still in the game, often leaving the key to guard people out by the 3 point line.  The guy is a great player, but he can't play the 5 defensively.  You can only put him in that position when the other team doesn't have any decent post players in the game. 

Anyway, I've rambled on long enough.  The bottom line is that the Blazers need to start focusing more on their offense and less on their defense.  It's the offensive that's costing them games. 

But for some perspective, the Blazers also began last season going 2-3.  And their two wins were a 100-99 squeaker against San Antonio (at home) and 101-99 win over Houston on Roy's miracle shot.