Blazer Shot Selection, By the Numbers

by momomoses7 on Nov 30, 2009 4:18 AM PST

In the recent conversations regarding the Blazer offense, it seems that there is a consensus amongst B'edgers that our offense is at its best when we are getting open looks/close shots/3s and worst when we are taking contested midrange Js off the dribble. Using information from hoopdata.com I decided to take a look at how our offense is generated and the success we hae attacking in different ways, including how we compare to the rest of the league. First, we'll start with total shooting stats (Sorry if these seem scattered, hopefully the reason I chose the categories I did will make sense as you read on):

FG% (Rank) 3PT% TS% Assist % FGA/gm FT/FGA

45.4 (16th) 35.5 (12th) 55.1 (9th) 60.52 (4th) 76.1 (30th) .347 (3rd)

Hoopdata sorts field goal attempts into 5 basic categories- at the rim, inside of 10 feet, 10-15 feet, 15-23 feet, and 3-pointers.

AT THE RIM

Attempts/gm FG% Ast% % Total FGA

22.4 (28th) 62.8 (10th) 54.7 (8th) 29.5

<10 FEET

Attempts/gm FG% Ast% %FGA

7.0 (24th) 41.4% (22nd) 38.2 (14th) 9.2

10-15 FEET

Attempts/gm FG% Ast% %FGA

7.3 (11th) 38.8 (19th) 35.2 (18th) 9.6

15-23 FEET

Attempts/gm FG% Ast% %FGA

19.8 (18th) 40.3 (9th) 62.5 (6th) 26.0

3 POINTERS

Attempts/gm FG% Ast% %FGA eFG%

18.8 (13th) 35.5 (12th) 90.6 (5th) 24.8 (10th) 53.2 (12th)

While this data is incomplete at best, I'm hoping to look at our offensive production from a different standpoint than previous fanposts. A few trends:

We have an exceptionally high assist percentage on all our outside jumpers, which is a good sign. There are other, less positive indicators as well. First off, over 50% of our shots come outside of 15 feet despite our efficient inside scoring. The 2nd is that we take more long 2s than 3s, something that would frustrate a coach at any level. We assist at a high rate on both, meaning our shooters need to position better before the catch or extend their range, depending on the player. The only exception is LaMarcus, who needs to take some of those open 18-20 footers to the rim for dunks/free throws. By comparison, the Orlando Magic, the league's most successful inside-out team, take a similar number of outside jumpers with a wildly different distribution. While 51% of their shots come from the outside, 34% of their shots are 3s and 17.5% are long 2s. While I would like to see us take fewer outside shots in general, I would settle for taking a few more 3s proportionally. I included eFG% under 3 pointers to show the stark contrast in scoring efficiency when we step behind the line.

Another positive I took away from these numbers was our proficiency at scoring close to the basket. Not only do we shoot over 60%, but we draw free throws at the 3rd-highest rate in the league. Our high assist rate shows our team's willingness to hit open cutters for point-blank shots, probably the easiest way to score in the NBA.

While there are signs of smart, team-oriented basketball in these numbers, there are also some things that highlight our occasional scoring difficulties. Our eFG% on 3s and close shots is 15-20 points higher than 2 point jump shots from any distance, and yet only 54% of our shots come from those areas. We take more long 2s than any other kind of shot away from the basket, which is something teams like the Bulls do. Also, most of our shots from 3-15 feet come off the dribble, which is probably why we don't shoot appreciably better than we do from 15-23 feet. 10-15 feet seems to be our team's "no man's land" where we take and make the lowest percentage of our shots.

Our team's unwillingness to play to its strengths for long stretches has been the most frustrating part of watching our offense this year. I think this burden falls equally on the coaches and players, despite BRoy's statements to the contrary. While coaches are responsible for drawing up the game plan, players are responsible for executing and adjusting. Andre Miller has showed us the recipe for some beautiful team offense, and most of my our prettiest stretches come when he infects our team with the unselfishness bug. Certain players are looking to make passes I haven't seen them try and make in years past with the goal of creating the best possible shot for the team, and this should only become more prevalent as we become more familiar with one another. The only obstacle seems to be that a few players want to stop the ball and control the game, a malaise that can also spread to the rest of the team. I'm not trying to point fingers as this has happened to almost every Blazer already this season. It's my hope that our players get shown, through statistics or video, the gaping chasm between our current and ideal shot selection. If Josh Smith can do it, so can the Blazers.

Thanks for sticking with me, this is my 1st fanpost and I'm worried I went a bit too long... Hope this information was worth your time.

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Comments

good job

i like how you point out the big difference in EFG% between 15-23 feet and 3pt land but how we take more long 2s than 3s. the equivalent % we would have to shoot from 3-land to match the expected value of shooting from long 2 is not that high… this is where i think aldridge can help because he can hit the corner 3. inside-out greg and lamarcus. if greg can hit the 15 footer from the high post, lamarcus would get much better looks around the basket too. he never has room for his sweeping hook shot move in the paint.

at this point though, i’d bet more on aldridge hitting 3s than greg hitting 15 footers.

by jukelike20 on Nov 30, 2009 7:05 AM PST reply actions

Great find, rec for sure

15-23 FEET

Attempts/gm FG% Ast% %FGA

19.8 (18th) 40.3 (9th) 62.5 (6th) 26.0

That shows how inefficient the Blazers offense is, 26% of the shots they take are long 2 point shots, (somewhere I hear Charles Barkely ranting about the Blazers shooting too many jumpers) and they shot 40% on those shots. Simply amazing how this has gone on for so long and not be corrected. Jump shots are not bad, but they needs to be high percentage jump shots, open 3’s, open 10-12 footers, not 22 foot contested jumpers at the shot clock buzzer.

Hopefully Nate can figure out what almost every knowledgeable fan already knows, and Dave post this morning. The offense needs to be changed to maximize the efficient scorers the team has this year, that is Oden down low, Roy in the halfcourt, and LMA on the break and weakside. Until this happens, this team is just tredding water, not swimming.

Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?

by usmcr3049 on Nov 30, 2009 10:22 AM PST reply actions

One think I just noticed

Usually our team’s pace factor is slowed because are an excellent offensive rebounding team. I always wondered how it would change if each offensive board counted as a new position. The answer, apparently, is not much as we attempt the fewest field goals/gm in the league. In keeping with Dave’s post on our offense, this does not put us in ideal position to win easily.

by momomoses7 on Nov 30, 2009 1:09 PM PST reply actions

How come our points in the paint are so low if Greg is the offensive juggernaut that some say?

Blazer Fan

by leeroyjenkins on Nov 30, 2009 1:15 PM PST reply actions

ATTEMPTS

are criminally low. We score at a rather high rate when we feed the post between high FG% and free throw ratio. The problem is we only take 2.5 more close shots than looooong 2s a game. NOT a recipe for success. Thus I’d argue this is on anyone BUT Oden, who I don’t see stepping out to 15+ feet ery often

by momomoses7 on Nov 30, 2009 1:54 PM PST up reply actions

Good work

I think our long 2 numbers come in high because we wait so long into the shot clock as a matter of routine. If a guy is not free with 3 seconds left they tend to fake a drive, which serves to put the defender off balance, but also usually means that we are stepping inside the 3 point arc.

What is the rule we heard bandied about last year, if there is nothing there in the first 6 seconds of the chot clock hold till the last 6 seconds before shooting. That kind of plan leads to a lot of long range 2s IMO.

"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man

by PDXBuckeye on Nov 30, 2009 5:09 PM PST reply actions