SUMMARY INFO

This weekly schedule analysis is based on four categories of games:

1. Home games against sub .500 teams.  Cream Puff Home.
2. Home games against winning teams (I'm including teams right at .500 in this category).  Jawbreaker Home.
3. Road games at losing teams.  Banana Peel Road.
4. Road games at winning teams.  Rocky Road.

A general formula for success in the NBA is to win almost all of Cat 1 (Cream Puff Home), a majority of Cat 2 (Jawbreaker Home) and Cat 3 (Banana Peel Road), and win some in Cat 4 (Rocky Road).  The contenders may win more than half of their Cat 4 games.

Back to Backs (hereafter BtoB) are also tracked so as to provide further data on schedule difficulty.

Last week's update

CHANGES THIS WEEK

And on to week six, thankfully leaving a disappointing week five in the dustbin of history. 

San Antonio is now a winning team, triggering reclassifications of their opponent's games against them.  Sacramento also returned to the ranks of the .500+ teams, proving (for now, anyway) that I don't know what I'm talking about.  Congrats to Kings fans.  Chicago is now a losing team, for the time being, anyway.  Houston flirted with dropping below .500, but wasn't ready to let OKC do that to them.  The Clips and Bobcats have both drawn within 2 games of .500 after poor starts to the season.

I'm still tracking the same 9 teams, but in these early days of the season, it looks like the playoff battle could be much broader than that.  Sacramento is still at .500 (I don't believe this one is real), OKC is still over .500 (this one might be real), and the Clippers, who many expected would contend, appear to have put their game together even without Griffin, so they could make a run once he gets back.  Nor can you write off the Hornets, who are 4-3 since Chris Paul's injury, and should be fine once he is healthy.

COMMENTS ON THE WEEK

Portland (2-2) won two of three Cream Puffs (Cat 1) at home and lost a Cat 4 Rocky Road at Utah.  Not a very good week at all.

Dallas (2-2) had an up and down week, losing a Cat 1 at home to six guys, making up for it with a Cat 4 win at Houston, solidifying with a Cat 3 Banana Peel win on the road at Indiana, and then dropping a Rocky Road loss at Cleveland.  Not a bad week considering Howard and Dampier are out.

Denver (3-1) messed up a good week at the end with a horrible result.  Yes, children, there is something worse than losing to Memphis at home -- losing to Minnesota at home.  2-1 on Cat 1 Cream Puffs for the week, plus a Cat 3 win at Minnesota.  It's the NBA, stuff happens even to elite teams.

Houston (1-2).  Not a good week, losing two Cat 2 Jawbreakers at home to Texas rivals.  The week was rescued somewhat by a Cat 4 win at OKC. 

L.A.  (3-0) continues its California Dreaming with two home Cream Puffs against NY and NJ (do they get any creamier or puffier than that?) and a Cat 3 Banana Peel at G.S.  Someday these guys will go on the road and we'll find out if they are for real this year.  

N.O. (1-1) had a nice Cat 2 win at home against a tough Bucks team, and then dropped one on the road against Sacramento (Cat 4 Rocky Road, since it put the Kings up to .500).  Not a bad week -- if they can tread water until CP3 gets back, they'll be fine.  Of interest to Blazer fans, Sergio had 24 points and 5 assists with no turnovers in 24 minutes, and Ime played one and a half minutes, with zeroes across the board (yes, Ime is struggling to get PT with Sacramento, despite Kevin Martin being out).  Maybe everyone who is wishing we had kept Ime is wrong, and we should have kept Sergio instead.

Phoenix (3-0) is rolling, though not against the hardest competition, winning a Cat 1 home game against Memphis (oh, wait, maybe that is hard), and two Cat 3 Banana Peels, at Minnesota and Toronto. 

S.A. (4-0) finally got untracked with their first good week of the year, with two home Cream Puffs (G.S., Philly), a Cat 2 Jawbreaker at home against Milwaukee, and a solid Cat 4 win at Houston.   

Utah (2-1) had a decent week, winning a Cat 1 Cream Puff (Chicago), and splitting two Cat 2 Jawbreaker home games (OKC and Portland).  The OKC loss hurt, but beating Portland was more important in the long run.

Helped themselves:  L.A., Phoenix, S.A.

Decent week: Dallas, Denver, N.O., Utah. 

Hurt themselves:  Portland, Houston.

The tables:

Cat 4 -- Rocky Road

Advantage Houson, only 16 of these games remaining.  Disadvantage L.A., they are storing up for themselves a lot of tough road games still to come. 

Cat 3 -- Banana Peel Road 

With two wins in this category, Phoenix has surpassed our win total.  The Spurs got well at home this week, they still haven't beat a bad team on the road. 

Cat 2 -- Jawbreaker Home

Phoenix  may be unbeaten at home, but then, they haven't yet played anyone good there.  Denver is no longer unbeaten at home, but it isn't because of the quality of the opposition.  Utah lost a home game to a division rival (Utah) this week.

Cat 1 -- Cream Puff Home

Me and my big mouth.  Last week, I said, "Well, at least we're taking care of business against weak teams at home."  The loss to Memphis hurts less since both Dallas and Denver took home losses to bad teams this week, too.  The Denver loss to Minnesota is painful for them because it is a division rival, so could have important tiebreaker ramifications.

All Home Games

Portland, Dallas, Denver, Houston (twice), and Utah dropped home games this week.  L.A. continues to burn through their home games, leaving themselves a tough road ahead.  Phoenix has a lot of home games left, but almost 2/3 are against winning teams.

All Away Games

Before this week, Western playoff contenders overall were 30-32 in road games.  That record is now 38-35 -- a combined 8-3 for the week, quite impressive.  Our road record has now dropped back to middle of the pack.  Phoenix has been impressive on the road this year.  L.A. and S.A. have hardly seen the road -- each has only left their home state for three games so far.

All Games Against Winning Teams

Denver, Phoenix, and L.A. have the most remaining games against winning teams.  Fans who think we've had the lightest schedule need to recognize that while we've played a lot of bad teams, some other teams still have more tough games remaining than we do. 

All Games Against Losing Teams

That's two weeks in a row we've lost to a losing team, and all of a sudden we aren't really leading the pack in this anymore.  A huge factor in our success last year was taking care of business against bad teams.  Last year, our second loss to a losing team came on December 12th, and we've already taken our second one this year.  Our third came on January 17th, and we need to get our act together quickly to match that.  It is not the Utah loss that hurt us this week -- on a back to back, you lose those nine times out of ten.  It's the Memphis loss that was a killer.   

Back to Back Games Remaining

Our remaining overall back to back schedule now looks comparable to other teams, except New Orleans and San Antonio.  Of remaining back to backs, the following are the number of games where the other team is on a back to back as well: 

Net, the games where only the Western contender in question is on a back to back:

L.A. has the disadvantage because of the number of net back to backs they have remaining.  Portland also, not because of the number of games, but because of the quality of opposition in those games.  

Now, games where we are not on a back to back, but our opponent is:

In the "tired opponents" category, advantage Denver and Utah, disadvantage Portland and L.A.  

The Coming Week

1. Portland.  Finally, some rest for the weary.  Two days off before the Cat 2 Miami home game, then three days off before the Cat 2 Houston game (who will be playing their third in four nights).  Our last time with two days off in a row was November 4-5.  Since then, it has been 14 games in 23 nights.  Fatigue may have been an issue for us recently, but it shouldn't be by the end of the week. 
2. Dallas.  A testing week for them.  They open with a Cream Puff at home against Philly, then go out on the road for a couple of Banana Peels, at NJ and Memphis.  We know Memphis can be dangerous if you don't bring a good game, and NJ is likely to be dangerous for several reasons: a) Devin Harris is likely to be getting more effective every day b) first game with a new coach c) a couple of days rest to get ready d) they will bring maximum effort to try to avoid setting a new futility record.  It will be no surprise if the Mavs drop one of those two games.  Then, they return home for a tough Cat 2 against Atlanta, with both teams on a BtoB.
3. Denver.  Their week opens with a Cat 1 at home vs. G.S. (who is on a BtoB), then a Cat 2 against Miami, then they start a four game trip with a Rocky Road at S.A.
4. Houston.  3 in four nights on the West Coast, starting with tricky back to back Cat 3 Banana Peels at the Clips and the Warriors.  After a night off, they have a Rocky Road Cat 4 at Portland.  Not an easy week. 
5. L.A.  More home cooking, at least against decent teams this week, with a Cat 1 against N.O. and then two Cat 2 home games against Miami and Phoenix, both of whom will be on a BtoB.  That will make 15 home games to only 4 road games, by the end of the week.  And the L@kers only have 9 games against teams on a back to back this year, only six against winning teams.  By the end of this week, they will have already played three of those, all against winning teams.  They had better win these three -- they aren't going to get much help from the schedule the rest of the way. 
6. N.O.  If you have your superstar out injured, what do you want on your schedule?  1) Games you would probably lose anyway.  Check.  They start out with a Cat 4 at L.A. this week.  2) Games you will probably be able to win even without him.  Check.  They play a Cream Puff against Minnesota at home this week.  3) Lots of days off, so that you aren't losing ground while he recovers.  Check.  The above are their only two games this week.  
7. Phoenix.  Two interesting BtoBs this week.  The first is closing out their road trip at NY (Cat 3) and Cleveland (Cat 4).  Then, two days off before hosting Sacramento (Cat 2) and going back to back at LA (Cat 4).
8. S.A.  Two home games this week to try to keep the momentum rolling, but much tougher competition.  Two Cat 2s, hosting Boston Tuesday and Denver Saturday.  I suspect they'll try to send the Nuggets a message. 
9. Utah.  Three games, looking to win all of them.  They start today with a Cat 1 hosting Memphis (who is on a BtoB).  Then Friday, they are at home for a Cat 1 vs. the Pacers, then a Banana Peel away to Minnesota (both teams on a BtoB).

Two wins this week against decent opposition, and we'll look like a good team that may not really be clicking yet.  One win, and we look like a decent team with an inflated record because of a soft early schedule.  Two losses, and we look like a team that is imploding.

And Finally

I'll keep mentioning the tickets for kids for Blazersedge night until they have all been bought.  Here is Dave's original post announcing the 400 ticket target.  Here is Dave's latest post saying over 300 of the 400 have been sold.  That was almost three weeks ago, hopefully we'll get an update soon.

Dave's description:

Blazersedge Night:  Monday, January 25th:  Blazers vs. Hornets

Tickets sell for $22 each.  There is a $5 service charge per order no matter what the size.  Save money by buying tickets together with friends.

How to Order

You can call the Blazers directly at 503-797-9637.  PLEASE MAKE SURE to tell them you're ordering for Blazersedge Night and that you want the tickets to be donated to the kids.  (Side Note:  We also have a block of tickets reserved for BE folks who want to attend.  You can buy seats for yourself if you wish.)  The Blazers accept all of the usual forms of payment.

You can also make a PayPal donation to blazersedge22@yahoo.com.  We will pool the money collected and purchase tickets with it.  You can donate enough for multiple tickets or even partial amounts...anything is welcome.

You can also e-mail me directly at blazersub@yahoo.com  if you'd prefer to send a check via snail mail.