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Fun With Small Sample Sizes (A Look at Some Early Season Stats of Interest)

A week into the NBA season, let's take a look at some stats.  This is not meant as any kind of analysis (sample sizes are way too small), merely for kicks I'm using basketball-reference.com and ESPN's Hollinger stats.

* Portland is playing slightly faster this season so far, but is still 27th out of 30 teams in pace factor.  The fastest teams thus far are Golden State, Phoenix, Atlanta (should be an interesting contrast in styles tonight), the Lakers and Philly.  The slowest teams are Boston, Portland, OKC, Charlotte and slowest of all, Detroit.

* Portland is not up at the top in offensive efficiency like last  year.  The Blazers are right in the middle, at 15th.  Orlando, Denver, Philly, Phoenix and Toronto have been the most efficient; Indy, Chicago, Milwaukee, New Jersey and Chicago the least.

* The Blazers have been statistically decent on D so far, ranking 10th in D-eff.  The most successful Ds have been Boston, Miami, Charlotte, Dallas and Oklahoma City; the least: Sacramento, Indy, New York, Toronto and (worst of all) Memphis.

* The top PGs by Hollinger's PER so far: CP3, Arenas, George Hill, Billups and Parker.  Aaron Brooks is 6th, thanks to us.  Andre is 38th and Blake is 43rd.

* Top SGs: Vince, Rip, Lou Williams, Kobe and Ben Gordon.  Roy is 6th.  Rudy is 20th.

* Top SFs: 'Melo (leads everyone in PER), Pierce, LeBron, Azubuike and Grant Hill.  Outlaw (lists as an SF) is 19th and Webster is for some reason listed as an SG (Hollinger fail) but would be 20th among SFs.

* Top PFs: Marreese Speights (2nd overall), Blatche, Bosh, Ryan Anderson and Zbo.  LOL.  Bargnani is 6th.  Josh Smith is 8th.  Aldridge is 36th.  Juwon is 70th with a PER of 0.88.  I really hope we don't have to play him tonight.

*Top Cs: Dwight, Duncan, Blatche (listed here as well as PF), Rasho Nesterovic and Marc Gasol.  Frye is 9th.  Oden is 28th and Joel is 56th.

More fun facts after the jump.

Star-divide

* Gilbert, Kobe, Wade, Melo, Bosh, LeBron and Roy have the highest usage% so far, but none are on track to threaten Kobe's alltime record of 38.7% in 2005-2006.

* Your top 5 overall rebounders so far?  Dwight Howard, Tim Duncan, Joel Przybilla, Greg Oden and some guy named DeJuan Blair.

* Rasho Nesterovic is leading everyone in Offensive Rebound %.  Joel is 2nd and Oden is 9th.

* Danilo Gallinari is averaging 10.5 three point attempts per game, hitting 19 of 42 (45.2%).  Since 1946-1947, the most 3PA/Game for a full season was 8.7, set by Baron Davis, then of the Hornets, in 2003-2004. 

* Channing Frye has made 13 threes in 3 games, after having 20 made threes in his entire career up to this point.

*Your early leaders in True Shooting %-- a metric for overall scoring efficiency, calculated as 50*points/(fga+0.44*fta):

1) Mario Chalmers, .835

2) Marreese Speights, .794

3) Channing Frye, .763

The TS% of these three players last season: .548, .543, .465, respectively.  

If you relax the requirements so everyone qualifies (regardless of how few shots they've taken), your TS% leaders are Jeff Foster (1.136), Amir Johnson (1.064) and Kurt Thomas (1.000).

The alltime season record for TS%- at least since 1946-1947-- (among players who scored at least 500 points) is held by Artis Gilmore in 1981-1982, with a mark of .702.

* Tim Duncan has a defensive rebound percentage of 43.5.  This means he's secured 43.5% of all the possible defensive rebounds while he's been in the game.  Oden is 8th.  The season record for this since '46-'47 among players with at least 100 defensive rebounds rebounds?  Its held by none other than Joel Przybilla, with a mark of  33.1%, blowing away the previous record held by David Lee in 2006-2007 (27.6%).

* Steve Nash has an impressive AST% (percentage of possessions he's involved with that end in an assist) of 54.6, similar to Chris Paul's league leading mark of 54.5% last year.  Jeff Foster laughs at this.  His ast% is 61.5.  John Stockton's all-time record of 57.5% looks safe though.  The top 10 marks in this stat are held by Stockton, Stockton, Stockton, Paul, Stockton, Stockton, Stockton, Stockton, Paul and Nash. 11th best ever?  Andre Miller for the Cavs in 2001-2002.

* Chris Kaman is leading the league in minutes played and field goals (yes, I know the Clips have played 5 games already, but still.

* Chuck Hayes has a steal % of 4.8%.  Impressive, but a certain Nate McMillan was able to maintain a stl% of 5.8% throughout the entire 1993-1994 season, to set the record.

* Big men Rasho Nesterovic, Kyrylo Fesenko, JaVale Mcgee and Nick Collison have yet to commit a TO this year.  Kwame Brown has turned it over on 44% of his touches.

Look for a more serious and meaningful stat geek update from me around 15-20 games into the season.

Comment 31 comments  |  8 recs  | 

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isn't Lou playing Point Guard for Philly this year?

"Your best?!?!! Losers always whine about their best. Winners go home and &^%@ the prom queen"

2008 Civil War: Oregon 65 - Oregon State 38

by cloudydays on Nov 3, 2009 2:08 PM PST reply actions  

yeah, I think he is

Hollinger lists him as an SG still though. #HollingerFail.

by jksnake99 on Nov 3, 2009 2:13 PM PST up reply actions  

The Timbo Numerical Commentary Index (NCI) has Hollinger is about #37 of NBA journalists......

……………………………………. middle of the pack.

He’s an idiot, actually.

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Nov 3, 2009 2:38 PM PST up reply actions  

I could not possibly disagree more

Hollinger’s my favorite ESPN NBA writer, which says more about the likes of Sheridan, Hill, Bucher, etc. than about Hollinger, but I do think his work is really good.

by jksnake99 on Nov 3, 2009 5:27 PM PST up reply actions  

John Hollinger > Timbo.

That’s not even up for debate, either.

Dear Paul Allen:

Waive Patty Mills & sign Ime Udoka.

Sincerely,
AK1984

by AK1984 on Nov 3, 2009 7:35 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah I think I’ve heard of that Blair guy. He would’ve been a good pick up in an annual team roster expansion gathering…There has to be a better name for it than that…

Columbus til I die, Columbus til I die. I know I am, I swear I am, Columbus til I die!

by BLAZER_FAN_199 on Nov 3, 2009 2:10 PM PST reply actions  

That’s the one! Thanks for clarifying.

Columbus til I die, Columbus til I die. I know I am, I swear I am, Columbus til I die!

by BLAZER_FAN_199 on Nov 3, 2009 2:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Rec.

LOVE the new name for draft day!

My favorite teams are the Blazers and any team that is playing the Lakers.

by OCBlazerFan1 on Nov 3, 2009 2:46 PM PST up reply actions  

Stern to rename draft

I smell an email campaign. The fourth Thursday in June will now be known as SPD!

"What we have here, is a failure to communicate."

by with_a_z on Nov 3, 2009 3:10 PM PST up reply actions  

Saint Pritchard's Day!!!!!!!!! That is a Rec-A-Mundo!!!!!!!!!!

Blazer's Edge Ambassador to The Dream Shake Blog
LMA Rocks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I <3 LMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
LMA - Putting the POWER in POWER FORWARD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The concussion must have jarred him into "Destroy All Opposition Terminator Mode!" - BlazersOrBust

by LaMarvelous on Nov 3, 2009 6:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Miami near tops in defensive efficiency? Is this for real, or just the small sample size?

My team went to the playoffs in my first year.

by pxilpooshr on Nov 3, 2009 2:24 PM PST reply actions  

If you want your "Center" raining 3s, Channing Frye is your man!!!

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Nov 3, 2009 2:36 PM PST reply actions  

....................... you'd better have Omri Casspi as your SF though...

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Nov 3, 2009 2:36 PM PST up reply actions  

Frye must be in heaven in Pho.

No mixin’ it up inside, stand at the three point line and cast away. 6’11" shooting post.

My favorite teams are the Blazers and any team that is playing the Lakers.

by OCBlazerFan1 on Nov 3, 2009 2:48 PM PST up reply actions  

Pho = isn't that noodle soup?

I am very happy that Frye as found the “Perfect Job”.

Blazer's Edge Ambassador to The Dream Shake Blog
LMA Rocks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I <3 LMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
LMA - Putting the POWER in POWER FORWARD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The concussion must have jarred him into "Destroy All Opposition Terminator Mode!" - BlazersOrBust

by LaMarvelous on Nov 3, 2009 6:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Thats Karma

Frye was never a problem here despite the fact we were never going to utilise his talents effectively – He gets traded to the perfect situation

Sergio moans about playing time – he gets send to be the third string pg on the worst team in the league

"What happened to Bayless anyway? Did he turn into a pumpkin? Most teams don’t just let #11 picks rot." - Xiane

by MadBlaze on Nov 4, 2009 2:57 AM PST up reply actions  

Somewhere out in the wild blue yonder of the Midwest, Brad Lohaus is smiling about Channing Frye.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

On a trivial note, Lohaus was one of the (un)lucky few to have both played with and be coached by Mike Dunleavy, Sr.

Dear Paul Allen:

Waive Patty Mills & sign Ime Udoka.

Sincerely,
AK1984

by AK1984 on Nov 4, 2009 4:42 AM PST up reply actions  

Rec

but you should reconsider your title, “Fun With Small Sample Sizes”

by broyposse on Nov 3, 2009 2:59 PM PST reply actions  

Interesting stuff

Nice work snake. It’s early, of course, and the small sample sizes reflect the usual early mix of predictable and bizarre results.

Based on the early results, the Magic and Celtics will absolutely roll this year, the Lakers will be good but mildly disappointing, the Blazers will be about the same as last year (maybe a bit worse due to Przy and Blake coming back to earth and not enough improvement elsewhere), and the Cavs will be wildly disappointing and lose Lebron to the Brooklyn Billionaires.

The VC and Sheed additions in Boston and Orlando will carry both those teams to the mid-sixties or higher… Orlando’s depth this season is just ridiculous. They could legitimately win 70 games and then still lose to Boston in the EC finals.

Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.

by KP Corleone on Nov 3, 2009 4:25 PM PST reply actions  

yeah, Orlando's depth is nuts

I totally agree that they’ll run up an awesome regular season record… and that the Celtics are still going to be a huge hurdle for them in the playoffs.

by jksnake99 on Nov 3, 2009 5:38 PM PST up reply actions  

No matter the small sample sizes, there's a lot of lovely names on this list.

Jeff Foster, Rasho Nesterovic, DeJuan Blair, Kurt Thomas, Nick Collison, et al.

Oh, and if Larry Miller hasn’t yet received the memo, Juwan Howard should be put out to pasture.

Also, I scoff at folks who foolishly argued Nate McMillan would coach at a faster pace this season. Remember, folks, history and past precedent are the biggest factors apropos of a coach’s preference regarding tempo. Of all the small sample sizes, the Portland Trail Blazers plodding pace will stay roughly the same throughout this whole entire season.

Dear Paul Allen:

Waive Patty Mills & sign Ime Udoka.

Sincerely,
AK1984

by AK1984 on Nov 3, 2009 4:32 PM PST reply actions  

We

I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich

by hobobob on Nov 4, 2009 11:51 AM PST up reply actions  

are all scoffing at something

not sure how I posted the we part by itself. Something for you to scoff at.

I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich

by hobobob on Nov 4, 2009 11:52 AM PST up reply actions  

jksnake and ben - Making early season analysis way too much fun!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Blazer's Edge Ambassador to The Dream Shake Blog
LMA Rocks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I <3 LMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
LMA - Putting the POWER in POWER FORWARD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The concussion must have jarred him into "Destroy All Opposition Terminator Mode!" - BlazersOrBust

by LaMarvelous on Nov 3, 2009 6:06 PM PST reply actions  

so letting channing walk was our biggest off season mistake?

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out, burns out farms, and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.

"New Man Law: If you don't show up for the draft you don't get to come later if you're picked. If you believe in yourself, show up and sit there. If nobody else believes in you, take it and cry like a man...in front of the cameras."

-Dave

by faith on Nov 4, 2009 5:04 AM PST reply actions  

Sort of...

The biggest mistake was not letting Channing walk, it was not signing anyone to replace him.

KP focused on big names, and when he struck out on the big name PFs, he signed the next biggest name and used all his cap room to do it, completely ignoring the back up PF spot. If the plan is to have Howard and Outlaw play back up PF… well, that’s a bad plan. And last night is not the only time this season it will come back to bite the Blazers.

Channing took his lumps around here, but he was a talented lottery pick who was at least a rotation caliber NBA player. At this stage of his career, Juwon Howard is not.

This season, if Lamarcus OR Greg OR Przy gets injured (or gets in foul trouble) for any significant period of time, who’s filling in down low? This is a big problem that will cost the Blazers a few wins this year, at least… and the blame has to fall entirely upon Pritchard. He did a great job building this team, but he whiffed on adding the missing piece (or simply filling in a very large gap) this offseason in favor of headlines.

Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.

by KP Corleone on Nov 4, 2009 7:22 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

And obviously...

Not drafting Blair didn’t help matters… but that wasn’t the ultimate issue. If the plan was to sign a back up PF with more experience and ignore the guy with the knee issues, fine. But when Milsap and Lee end up elsewhere, you can’t scrap the plan, ignore a spot in your rotation, and sign the big name PG who doesn’t fit and who you don’t really need. You have to find SOMEBODY other than a guy who should be in the TNT studio with his contemporary Chris Webber.

Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.

by KP Corleone on Nov 4, 2009 7:25 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Great for perspective...

Yeah, I’m sure Channing will be among the lead leaders – in anything – by May…

And lessee. our starting lineup players are ranked, in their positions as:
6th, 20th, 28th, 36th, and 43rd…

And our awesome athletic bench: 20th, 38th, 56th, and 70th!

Gee, wonder why we’re not winning?

But I’ll bet a fair amount of money that our starting lineup won’t average as low as 19th…. That’s just turrible… (And I’ve always found that “it can’t get much worse” is a good cause for optomism…)

by Visionary2 on Nov 4, 2009 10:48 AM PST reply actions  

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