DANGER will robinson DANGER

by zuul on Nov 25, 2009 2:23 PM PST

so i just saw a very startling and disheartening statistic on the espn ticker... blazers 35.0 PPG in the paint... LOWEST ppg in the paint average in the NBA.

that's a huge red flag and should concern any blazer fan... i realize we play an inside out game where our first choice is b. roy but there's no reason why greg, l.a., joel, martel, hell even b. roy shouldn't be scoring more in the paint...

they need to get that average up b/c when you start playing denver, phoenix, san antonio, l.a. orlando, boston etc... those points will be sorely missed...

i realize the team is still gelling as it were and nate is still trying to find the starting line-up etc. but that stat is depressing and a bad omen of things to come when we actually see some real competition...

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82games.com from 2007

http://www.82games.com/pointsinpaint.htm

Now if you look at correlations over the last two seasons (so include 05-06 as well) you get the following:
-.11 for PTS in PAINT on Offense
-.34 for PTS in PAINT on Defense
+.20 for net Pts in Paint

The 95% CI’s are huge with just a 60 team-season sample, but the basic premise is offensive points in the paint don’t have a huge impact, defensive points in the paint allowed are the most connected to winning record (it’s showing a negative correlation since fewer points allowed in the paint is the goal) and the net is somewhat related to record.

Over the past two season the eventual NBA finalists ranked 1st (Miami 05-06), 8th, 9th, and 13th in net points in the paint…but the 2005-06 conference finals losers were Detroit (ranked last in the league in net pts in the paint) and Phoenix (ranked 26th).

So you find good and bad teams at both extremes in the rankings, albeit in both years the top fifteen teams in net points in the paint outperformed the bottom fifteen as a group, winning 54% overall in 06-07 and 53% in 05-06.

Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash

by HurraKane212 on Nov 25, 2009 2:34 PM PST reply actions

meh, the whole thing is supposed to be a quote

Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash

by HurraKane212 on Nov 25, 2009 2:34 PM PST up reply actions

Good comment--logic, stats, the perfect antidote to Chicken Little-itis.

by Marvin100 on Nov 25, 2009 4:01 PM PST up reply actions

While I will be the first to say Portland needs to get more points in the paint

Stats like this one that are not pace-adjusted or percentage based are not worth the proverbial paper they are printed on.

It’s misleading stats like these that cause people to say the ’08-09 Trail Blazers were not a good rebounding team because they were 27th in the league in defensive rebounds per game or 13th in total rebounds per game. In actuality, the team led the league in offensive rebounding percentage and were 6th in defesive rebound percentage.

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Nov 25, 2009 2:44 PM PST reply actions

that is correct

we need a “% of points in the paint” measure. With one of the slowest paces in the NBA, it’s hard to take the raw stats as gospel. Our TS% EFG% and OR are just fine.

Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash

by HurraKane212 on Nov 25, 2009 2:47 PM PST up reply actions

agreed… stats are a slippery slope and certainly good statisticians can manipulate data to prove or disprove most arguments…

my point was more this… this stat tells me as a casual observer that 1. our bigs aren’t getting enough touches through the offense… a lot of our points in the paint come from rebounds… (take it where you can get it?) but putting more of the offense through greg joel and la down on the blocks would open things up even more for our shooters on the outside… 2. with re: to bayless comment… exactly… we don’t have enough penetration and too frequently are happy to settle for outside shots… sure a lot of times they are high percentage shots from our best shooters but all i’m saying is you greatly enhance your game utilizing the bigs more and driving the lane more…. look at d. wade…. he scores 10-15/night just at the line from going hard to the rack…

by zuul on Nov 25, 2009 2:54 PM PST up reply actions

or to put it more succinctly… live by the jump shot… die by the jump shot.

by zuul on Nov 25, 2009 2:56 PM PST up reply actions

well, we more "live by the rebound"

and we are not an excessive jump shooting team. We’re about average with a bit higher than average dunk% according to 82games.com.

Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash

by HurraKane212 on Nov 25, 2009 2:58 PM PST up reply actions

and therein lies the rub. “about average” this should be an above average team in most categories with the talent we have…yet most people seem happy with “average” young team sure… needs time to gel sure… but overall i think the offense isn’t well suited for the players we have… it’s “safe” sure but i think if you want to make it past the first round of the playoffs then you need some innovation and to take some risks… i don’t want to turn this into a “hate on nate” post b/c i don’t hate the guy… i just think he might be too conservative for this team that might need a more dynamic guy on the sidelines… again not to slight nate. b/c i think he’s a stand up guy… was a great player and would be a good coach for team like utah… but you know… i’m not sure he relates to the young guns as well as a younger or more liberal minded coach would…

by zuul on Nov 25, 2009 3:04 PM PST up reply actions

average % of shots taken are jumpers

not average amount go in.

This is a neutral stat, there isn’t necessarily a wrong or right percentage. In fact, league wide, there is very little variation. Last year, I don’t believe that there was any team below 60% or above the low 70’s. I could be wrong on that number, I’ll have to check, but one thing I am sure of is that there wasn’t much variation in general.

I don’t know if you understand the statistics you are using, no offense.

Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash

by HurraKane212 on Nov 25, 2009 3:23 PM PST up reply actions

Was the offense you saw Monday...

…against the Bulls not “well suited for the players we have?” Are there any results you can site to support

i’m not sure he relates to the young guns as well as a younger or more liberal minded coach would

I have to agree with douglast above that raw numbers, unadjusted for pace or usage, are generally misleading and occasionally useless.

With the changes in rotation and line up that Nate has made in the last couple games I’m going to choose to believe that he is less rigid then you profess. Giving Dante time like he did, putting Bayless in with Rudy and Miller in a 3 guard look and giving Miller and Roy a long, successful run through parts of 2 quarters shows me that he is more flexible then people give him credit for.

I feel no danger … let alone DANGER… in this number. From what I see with my eyes I am not concerned about our interior presence.

GO BLAZERS!!!

by Ilikeemall on Nov 25, 2009 3:35 PM PST up reply actions

I think Bayless can help in this stat quite a bit.

He’s like Jarrett Jack driving to the basket, and we need more of that.

...and that's a good thing

by In Walks Rudy on Nov 25, 2009 2:45 PM PST reply actions

are freethrows counted

as points in the paint?

Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash

by HurraKane212 on Nov 25, 2009 2:47 PM PST up reply actions

Only if your foot's over the line.

Actually I don’t know.

Disclaimer: everything I know about basketball I learned on Blazersedge.

by pualo on Nov 25, 2009 3:27 PM PST up reply actions

I agree it is a concern that we rank so low

However I would temper your worry with a few points
- A lot of points in the paint for many teams come from the fast break. That isn’t a big feature of Blazer games on either end.
- We rank 4th in the league in free throws made. Not sure if those count as PIP
- We have a slow pace, so if you did PIP per possession, we might climb a little.
- Our offense has sputtered pretty bad at times, and that is dragging down our season numbers. Seems like it is coming around though.

by Matt29 on Nov 25, 2009 2:50 PM PST reply actions

Well said Matt...

Very good and relevant points.

by Ilikeemall on Nov 25, 2009 3:37 PM PST up reply actions

For this exercise, free throws should count, because they are indicative of inside play.

by zaruga on Nov 25, 2009 4:31 PM PST up reply actions

SOOOOO.....

we really suck?

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out, burns out farms, and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
Head Czar of Amerika <--- Mortimer said so so there!!!

by faith on Nov 25, 2009 3:16 PM PST reply actions

The pitfalls of being a jump shooting team.

As we continue to integrate Greg into the offense, and Roy increases his lane penetration, we should be okay.

(I’m of the personal belief that Roy isn’t being aggressive enough on offense)

"Ain't nothin' in this world for free."

by Arby on Nov 25, 2009 3:43 PM PST reply actions

How should he be more aggressive?..

Last year he scored 23% of our points… So far this year 21%. I believe he shoots more free throws in the 4th quarter then anyone but K*be. If Roy were being more aggressive on the offensive end would more people be saying that our iso Roy offense will never win in the playoffs?

I agree with you that with integration points in the paint will improve… and the way Greg’s coming on so will our defense against points in the paint.

GO BLAZERS!!!

by Ilikeemall on Nov 25, 2009 4:07 PM PST up reply actions

His field goal percentage is down nearly 40 basis points.

To me that screams that he’s settling for what the defenses are giving him rather than attacking the basket. His first three games, he did this excellently. He had 11, 18 and 13 FT attempts, respectively. Since those first three games? He hasn’t attempted more than 8 and has averaged 4.7 FT per game. On top of that, he’s already had two games in which he hasn’t attempted a free throw. Last season, he had one game ALL SEASON where he didn’t attempt a free throw.

"Ain't nothin' in this world for free."

by Arby on Nov 25, 2009 4:14 PM PST up reply actions

Makes sense...

Thanks for the point of view.

I am kind of hoping he’s pacing himself. I’m alright with him not beating the heck out of himself going to the rim and save some wear and tear on his body as long as we don’t need him to and to this point we haven’t… at least as much. I’d much rather he save that for the playoffs.

Great job backing up your thought. I appreciate the insight.

Take care and…

GO BLAZERS!!!

by Ilikeemall on Nov 25, 2009 6:55 PM PST up reply actions