Greg's Averages When He Plays 25+ Minutes

by hawkblogger on Nov 25, 2009 10:13 AM PST

I wrote a while back about a key stat for Greg will be mean time between fouls. At the time, he was averaging a scant 4 mins 9 seconds between fouls, limiting him to a max of ~24 mins per game. Increasing the mean time between fouls by even a single minute would increase his max court time to ~30 mins. In this post, I wanted to see exactly how Greg is performing when he does manage to play more than 25 mins.

Through the first 16 games of the year, Greg has played 25+ minutes seven times, including four of the past eight. In those seven games, Greg has averaged:

12.71 pts 10.29 reb 2.43 blocks 2.57 turnovers 3.86 fouls

I think any Blazer fan would sign up for those numbers. His turnover total is inflated by the seven he committed in the first game. His turnover average in the other six games is only 1.57.

Most importantly, his average minutes per game has increased from ~23 in the first eight games, to ~26 in the last eight. His fouls have gone from an average of 4.375 in the first eight to 3.625 in the last eight.

It's fun to watch his growth happen so clearly and undeniably.

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hopefully he can keep improving.

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by usmcr3049 on Nov 25, 2009 10:28 AM PST reply actions

Not a question of improving but how fast he will improve.

He has played 77 regular season games so far. His growth curve has been steep!
O.R.

by Odenrising on Nov 25, 2009 10:37 AM PST reply actions

I think the standard deviation is actually the key for him, assuming anyone gets anal retentive with time between fouls stats...

I wrote a while back about a key stat for Greg will be mean time between fouls.

If he gets 1-2-3 real fast and has to sit, then plays a lot of ineffective minutes before #4 comes, THAT’S what you have to be afraid of — even if the average time between fouls is reasonably large.

People need to just accept that the way Oden plays defense, he is going to be foul prone. He needs to figure out how to dodge stupid fouls (swinging his arms down on shooters and letting guards get into him when he’s not in position to take a charge-draw) and that’s important for him — but he’s still always going to be foul prone.

He has to learn to maximize the effect of his 23 or 25 or 28 minutes on the floor each night.

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Nov 25, 2009 10:39 AM PST reply actions

He needs to figure out how to dodge stupid fouls

He seems to be slowly but progressively getting better at this.

If he gets 1-2-3 real fast and has to sit, then plays a lot of ineffective minutes before #4 comes

Agree, but I almost never see him play ineffective minutes this season, regardless of how many fouls he has when he’s on the court. That’s both a blessing and a curse – blessing because by playing the same way regardless of his fouls, he’s allowing himself to be be fully effective on both ends, and a curse because of course it leads to that next fould coming all that much faster, taking him back to the bench.

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Nov 25, 2009 10:54 AM PST up reply actions

He has done less hip-checking of quick guards

which is an encouraging sign.

"I'd like to see Nate McMillan stop treating fouls like they are rollover minutes." - Blazer Guy 11/4/09

by jamon51 on Nov 25, 2009 11:22 AM PST up reply actions

or!!! he just isn't getting nailed for it.

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out, burns out farms, and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
Head Czar of Amerika <--- Mortimer said so so there!!!

by faith on Nov 25, 2009 12:49 PM PST up reply actions

He will learn to space it out

I don’t think he will always average a foul every 4 minutes. Even if that is stretched out to 5 or 5.5 minutes his court time will approach 32 minutes a game. Thats when all the east coast stat watchers will raise their eyebrows, especially since Portland will be playing like .800 ball.
O.R.

by Odenrising on Nov 25, 2009 10:54 AM PST up reply actions

The question is will he ever get leiancy from the refs, like Ben Wallace or other defensive specialists do.

If he does, then he will eventually be able to play more minutes without changing his style of play.

my last.fm //use firefox with ablock

by Zaron5551 on Nov 25, 2009 10:55 AM PST up reply actions

Well, he is now starting to get calls when he's being aggressive on offense. The Noah foul which led to

Noah’s technical was an iffy call. It looked like Noah had all ball. I think that’s a good sign that the refs are starting to see him in a different light.

by raoulduke on Nov 25, 2009 11:59 AM PST up reply actions

The refs are going to make iffy calls

That’s why he needs to avoid the non essential actual fouls. It’s something many of us are learning as we watch Oden develop. Side note, this is probably obvious to the majority but I haven’t seen any fans capitalize on the fact that our center shares the name of the most powerful Norse god. Equivalent to Zeus and father to Thor. Ain’t that some good stuff?

by jiminut on Nov 25, 2009 12:23 PM PST via mobile up reply actions

I love that too.

There’s a song by the Viking metal band Amon Amarth called “with Oden on our side” that gets me pumped up. Good song if you’re into hard rock/metal music.

Call Brandon Roy by his real nicknames: The Natural and Roybot. Lets put an end to "B-Roy"

by #7TheNatural on Nov 25, 2009 6:17 PM PST up reply actions