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Around SBN: Raiders' GM Begins The Purge

The post that wouldn't be contained

I have been trying valiantly to hold the line on my Blazer obsession.  Attending games, poring over stats, roaming the internet for every morsel of Blazer coverage, and checking BE thrice daily is bad enough without me starting to post too.  But certain things just have the feeling of inevitability to them...  you can try to contain them but you know it is temporary at best.  That idea of an unstoppable development is also a part of the fan experience for me.  Being a fan has caused me to sprout rooting interests all over the NBA and much of the fun of the sport for me is following these interests: rooting for and against players, teams, coaches, and even owners (see: Cuban, Mark).  

A good example is players you pass over in the draft or trade away.  There is a natural aversion to seeing those players dominate.  Fans want to feel good about the moves their team makes and their own players.  Let's say for example that your team drafts Andrea Bargnani.  Does it feel good to watch Brandon Roy blow up?  Not really.  So as the season goes on you are rooting for Bargnani to be better and Roy to trip up.  You are rationalizing your teams pick and hoping it pans out.  But there is this aura of inevitability around Roy that you can't shake.  The little voice in your head is telling you that Roy is slowly joining death and taxes on that list of things you can't avoid.  You rationalize harder (maybe even inexcusably voting for Bargnani for rookie of the year).  Eventually the game is up...  Roy ascends to all star status and bargnani sputters to mediocrity.  You knew it was coming, you just didn't want to admit it.  Which brings us to...

Oden and Durant

When they were drafted I was an Oden guy, but I had no problem with seeing them both blossom into stars.  When Greg went down with the knee, a rooting interest was born.  The only thing that could make the loss of Greg and the stalling of his career more painful was watching Durant storm the league.  So I started rooting against KD.  Box score watching, L counting, and hoping for failure.  During his rookie season there was much reason to rejoice - Durant was a volume chucker on a terrible team.  He couldn't pass or defend.  He made bad teammates worse.  He was a terrible player, overrated by the gullible for his empty scoring stats.  Oden, by any advanced metric, had a better impact on his team by sitting in street clothes doing nothing than Durant did with his putrid play.  There was only one teeny tiny problem...  I knew it was coming.  I couldn't rationalize it away.  His ascension was inevitable and I knew it.  His second year he still didn't do much winning, passing, defending, or teammate improving.  But he did a little more of them than year one.  And the chucker tag died completely to the tune of 47% shooting.  This year the thunder are improving.  The defense is sound, his teammates are better with him on the floor than off and his scoring is still sublime.  The point is, I have given up on rooting against KD's imminent rise.  What's the point?  He will fix whatever needs to be fixed (next up: passing?) and keep getting better.  He has it.  

So what about Greg?

Greg sat out a year.  He came back and got hurt again.  He came back tentative, slow, robbed of his explosiveness, and looking like a rookie.  He traveled, he got blocked from behind, he got rim checked, he got stripped.  He fumbled passes, he fouled, he turned it over, he chipped his kneecap.  And all the while even though advanced stats told of value and efficiency and potential, he just didn't look right.  Everybody with a rooting interest against him howled about the great bust Greg Oden.  The only people that kept the faith were (some) Blazer fans and a few wacky statheads that were easily drowned out by the Stephen A Smith types that know everything.

But something happened along the way.  Something perhaps unexpected.  Something magical.  

Greg got the aura.

His detractors knew it.

It is beyond delicious watching them squirm while it unfolds.

When Greg has a couple of subpar games due to foul trouble or turnovers, his detractors try to keep the hope alive.  They rationalize.  They blow smoke.  They get ratings.  But at the same time they must have that  terrible inescapable little feeling.  This can't last.  It's just a matter of time.  All his points and rebounds and blocks are just stuck behind a dam.  They are coming no matter what... unstoppable and inevitable as a river.  When the dam fails then all hell is going to break loose and the talking heads had better have flood insurance.

The Simmons' of the world only have one hope left for them to be right, and that is health.  That is why they rail so hard on the injury narrative.  They are subconsciously hoping their last hope.

Stay healthy Greg...  this is just getting fun 


Comment 31 comments  |  26 recs  | 

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If Oden hadn't bumped knees with Magette

He was well on his way to “arriving” last year, with a couple games of 20/10, right before that injury. Afterwards, #52 never quite got “back” to the same level of confidence.

Until now

I don’t have a reason to keep track of Durant, anymore. He’s just another player who’s on the court when Portland plays OKC. Greg said it best this summer, when he was asked about the “Durant debate”:

“All I know is my team made the playoffs in my first year. That’s how I see it’

Scoreboard

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Nov 24, 2009 9:12 PM PST reply actions  

can I be the first or 1000th to take that quote way out of context and finally describe oden as...

Mean.

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out, burns out farms, and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.

by faith on Nov 24, 2009 10:12 PM PST up reply actions  

Selfish and Vicious

are well on their way to being the Shaq and Kobe of the next generation. This team has no character…

November 23, 2009: In a shocker, KP once again proves smarter than this DeJuan Blair fanboy because the Inferno is a ballplayer who fits with our post focused centers perfectly.

by blazeraddict on Nov 25, 2009 12:19 AM PST up reply actions  

Said it after the 4th quarter of the Denver preseason game

Oden is going to take Portland to a championship. Probably several. Probably sooner than people think. The growth is becoming exponential now. Durant’s path means little if anything. Oden has played exactly 77 regular season games. How good do you think he will be after another 60 or so? Well said Matt29 they are squirming out there with good reason!
O.R.

by Odenrising on Nov 24, 2009 11:54 PM PST reply actions  

I am so excited

for Oden to silence the doubters

by fajunga on Nov 25, 2009 1:46 AM PST reply actions  

Great tribute

to my favorite Blazer!

"The only 'Advanced Metric' that matters is what you see with your eyes." -Timbo, Nov., 2009.

by Blazin' on Nov 25, 2009 3:00 AM PST reply actions  

Can't wait to call Cowturd's show....

After Greg dominates on both ends as the Blazers win their next championship…

Nice job, rec!

by Visionary2 on Nov 25, 2009 5:07 AM PST reply actions  

Well written, and fun to read. Thanks.

My team went to the playoffs in my first year.

by pxilpooshr on Nov 25, 2009 8:17 AM PST reply actions  

Given the title of the post, I almost skipped it

However, I’m glad that curiosity got the best of me. It was a fun read and I can totally relate to the lack of support for KD the first season….

When watching games, I find myself paying more attention to Oden, with or without the ball, than any other player out there. Before its all done, he will be a very special center in this league.

by westpdx on Nov 25, 2009 9:19 AM PST reply actions  

Same here with the Oden watching

Do you also cringe every time Oden blocks out two opposing rebounders, and then a guard scoops up the freebie rebound? Its funny to see the difference with Pryzbilla – I think people know not to take Joel’s rebounds.
Out of curiosity I just looked up Blake’s rebounding stats
Career before Oden 1.9
Last year 2.5
This year 2.8
btw this is not a serious point I am trying to make, just one of those fan things where I want to see Gregs box score blow up.

by Matt29 on Nov 25, 2009 2:29 PM PST up reply actions  

I know exactly what you mean.

But I think this is more a reflection of Greg’s “rebound black hole effect” his simply being on the court means that the other teams bigs have to worry so much about preventing him from rebounding, that everyone else grabs more rebounds.

Call Brandon Roy by his real nicknames: The Natural and Roybot. Lets put an end to "B-Roy"

by #7TheNatural on Nov 26, 2009 12:44 PM PST up reply actions  

oden then and oden now

Two things. Basically, Chad Ford said it all before the ’07 draft in his mock draft with Simmons:

If I was a sports columnist, I’d take Durant too. If I’m wrong, and Greg Oden is Tim Duncan, I crack a joke about it and move on. If Kevin Pritchard is wrong, he’s selling programs for the ABA Kansas City Knights.

Second, there is no such thing as a “functional” center in this league. You either have a top five center or really no center at all. The Chicago Bulls have illustrated this beautifully by just getting drilled by the Lakers, Nuggets and Blazers, simply because Joakim Noah is not big enough to be an elite center in this league. Up is still down, the earth rotates around the sun, and being big, strong and tall is the key to success in the NBA. So in three years, Kevin Durant might be a stud and so might Westbrook and Harden, but unless OKC comes up with some sort of miracle, Nene, Oden and Bynum will be destroying their front court.

by atomiccafe on Nov 25, 2009 12:50 PM PST reply actions  

Gotta disagree with your 'top five center' hypothesis

Maybe the Celtics are the exception that proves the rule, but I don’t think anyone would say that they’re not a contender in the East because they don’t have a top five center. In fact, a lot of people have picked them to win the East. And where does that leave Atlanta? Would you consider Horford a top five center, and if not, does that mean they’re going to get ‘destroyed’ by Orlando, who (I think everyone would agree) has a top five center? I’m not so sure.

I’d agree that having a great center certainly gives a team a big advantage, but there are always examples of teams like Boston in 07, Chicago in the 90’s, and the Pistons in 89 & 90 that seem to illustrate that a top center is not always a prerequisite for winning a title.

(Speaking specifically of Chicago, their problem isn’t Noah at center but that they have no good options at the PF position. They start a rookie who would come off the bench for just about every other team, Brad Miller looks pretty close to done, and the injured Tyrus Thomas is decent at best. Give them a good/great PF, like if they were to sign Bosh or even Stoudemire in the next offseason, and that’s a very scary team.)

by MDBlazerfan on Nov 25, 2009 7:23 PM PST up reply actions  

you're right

I’m making it a bit too cut and dry. It’s not simply about the center position, you have to look at both center and power forward, and if you have size and athleticism in the frontcourt, it’s a huge advantage. Josh Smith and Horford in Atlanta certainly qualify, and KG at his peak could compensate for the lack of a blue chipper at center for the Celtics when healthy.

As it relates to Oden/Durant though, the thinking (or lack of) of the Simmons school was that you could draft Durant and grab a quality center out of the bargain bin. But no matter how low you set the bar for making your frontcourt big and tough enough, quality bigs are really pricey. Bynum and Gasol are making about 15mil, Nene is making 10 mil but the Nuggets are also paying Kenyon Martin close to 15 mil. Josh Smith is getting paid, and Horford will when his rookie contract is up. What I’m trying to say (and misstated with the “top five centers” thing) is that you can’t get a wing, then plan on just filling the void at center. That doesn’t happen in this league, especially in a market with as little free agent appeal as Portland.

by atomiccafe on Nov 26, 2009 7:30 AM PST up reply actions  

Rec rec rec

I love the part about Oden. Its great to watch the “haters” slowly evaporate.

The Durant part is spot on. Just look at the side bar on this site. There is always 2-3 fanshots / fanposts trying to find some way to skew the numbers and make Durant look less fantastic than he obviously is. I even find myself rooting against him sometimes because it hurts to watch somebody that great that we could have had. Oden’s development is making it easier though but there is still this wierd thing when I watch Durant that makes me root against him, even though I enjoy watching him play so much.

Hopefully in 2-3 years the Blazers and Thunder will both come out winners on this and we can all sleep easy knowing that we didnt commit another “Bowie-Jordan”

Hi fans it Brandon Roy.
And ME.....LaMarcus Aldridge

by Derftron on Nov 25, 2009 1:29 PM PST reply actions  

If we had won a coin-flip . . .

It would have been an “Olajuwon-Jordan”.

Hopefully winning the lottery is like winning that coin flip and that comparison is more on line with Oden-Durant.

I think it will be.

by StuckeyDuck on Nov 25, 2009 4:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Does anyone else look back and wonder what if?

What if KP had pulled off that miracle trade of Z-Bo and other pieces (Webster, Outlaw, Dixon, Jack . . . ) to Seattle for #2. At the time a trade centered around Randolph + for #2 + seemed like a possibility. Imagine:

Blake/Miller
Roy/Fernandez
Durant/Batum
Aldridge/Juwan/Pendergraph/Cunningham
Oden/Przybilla

It coulda happened. Actually it probably couldn’t have.

But it could have . . .

by StuckeyDuck on Nov 25, 2009 4:00 PM PST reply actions  

I enjoyed that.

Thank You.

I am still not convinced that KD is "the star" of a championship level team. I question his strength and toughness. That being said, maybe, just maybe, I can stop rooting against him now. NOT!

Whether your preference is watching or playing, basketball is a TEAM game.

by KINGofMACct on Nov 25, 2009 4:34 PM PST reply actions  

I love the post

But can we all please begin to understand the differences between They, There, They’re and Their?

Please? Pretty please?

I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.

by haildablazer on Nov 26, 2009 1:30 AM PST reply actions  

I can't shake the feeling that other than that mistake that

There is a Canzano-esque tone to this post.

Maybe that’s just my aversion to three-word sentences.

I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.

by haildablazer on Nov 26, 2009 1:33 AM PST up reply actions  

In conclusion:

I love this post. It is nice to see Oden getting the love, or at least the benefit part of the doubt.

I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.

by haildablazer on Nov 26, 2009 1:37 AM PST up reply actions  

In post script

Can someone please add an “F” to my “Shut the up”?

I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.

by haildablazer on Nov 26, 2009 1:39 AM PST up reply actions  

Fixed

I just made a mistake their. Your getting on my nerves. How about if I pick on you’re posts?

by Matt29 on Nov 26, 2009 2:51 AM PST up reply actions  

Good to sea your on top of it.

I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.

by haildablazer on Nov 26, 2009 11:06 AM PST up reply actions  

their are times when you should complain about something,

and they’re times when you shouldn’t.

As long as there point is given and understood correctly.

:)

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out, burns out farms, and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
Head Czar of Amerika <--- Mortimer said so so there!!!

by faith on Nov 26, 2009 2:29 PM PST up reply actions  

My biggest grammatical pet peeve....

are the folks who think you before you lost, you’re thinking that you might “loose” a game… Now, if you PLAY loose, you might “lose”… but man, I see that one everywhere…

by Visionary2 on Nov 27, 2009 5:39 AM PST up reply actions  

ha ha ha...

it’s a “o” key w/ Tourette syndrome

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out, burns out farms, and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
Head Czar of Amerika <--- Mortimer said so so there!!!

by faith on Nov 27, 2009 11:15 AM PST up reply actions  

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