Blazers up to 3rd in Hollinger's Power Ranking

Mostly on the strength of margin of victory, which tends to be the most important stat for Hollinger's rankings. SOS will work against us, though our home/away splits are adequate.

Additionally, lots of Blazers talk on The Basketball Jones podcast, available on iTunes or the Ball Don't Lie website. I love their stuff.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/TBJ-Ep-473-Eating-Crow?urn=nba,204480

about 2 years ago samuelleejackson 17 comments 0 recs |

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We better push it even higher while we have a chance.

These super easy games don’t last forever.

*Unless KP has a secret plan that makes this statement incorrect.
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by staylost on Nov 24, 2009 2:06 PM PST reply actions

yep

the Blazers should push that margin number toward 10 over the next 3 games, if they play like they did Monday night they will blow them all out.

Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?

by usmcr3049 on Nov 24, 2009 2:23 PM PST up reply actions

if the power ranking is working correctly, the schedule you play shouldn't make a difference.

by PoliSam on Nov 24, 2009 3:31 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

I have a sinking suspicion that the power ranking is not working correctly. While part of it is based on SOS, it also takes into account a bunch of stats such as OFF and DEF ratings which are affected by SOS. I don’t know the exact formula but I imagine it does not fully deal with the intense variations in opponent ability (How much, if at all, should the T-wolves games be used in evaluating the blazers).
I have a few ideas for alternate rating measurements, based on pace based point differential and then doing a least squares fit over the body of data. I don’t quite have the data or tools to get started on this project, but if anyone is interested, send me a message or just respond to this.

by jnewhouse on Nov 24, 2009 8:27 PM PST up reply actions

Need to keep the starters in longer to push up that point diff

Still, beating Chicago by 30 is a good start.

(yes im kidding about the starters)

Blazer Fan

by leeroyjenkins on Nov 24, 2009 2:22 PM PST reply actions

I really believe our margin of victory is overstating how good we are.

We’ve had the 4th easiest schedule in the entire NBA to this point.

"Ain't nothin' in this world for free."

by Arby on Nov 24, 2009 2:34 PM PST reply actions

it's hard to believe 3 teams have had an easier schedule

they must be eastern conference teams..the Bulls came out west and ran smack into the NBA talent divide

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Nov 24, 2009 3:11 PM PST up reply actions

Bucks, Cavs and...

The Nets? Ugh. 0-13 looks even worse now.

πάτερ, ἄφες αὐτοῖς, οὐ γὰρ οἴδασιν τί ποιοῦσιν.

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by T Darkstar on Nov 24, 2009 5:03 PM PST up reply actions

again, strength of schedule is in his power rankings.

by PoliSam on Nov 24, 2009 3:34 PM PST up reply actions

It is, but most of Hollinger's weight is on the margin, or so I've heard.

*Unless KP has a secret plan that makes this statement incorrect.
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by staylost on Nov 24, 2009 4:06 PM PST up reply actions

Hard to say...

I don’t get where his weights come from… in the method I used, the concept of weighting margin of victory in comparison to strength of schedule doesn’t even make sense. Margin of victory and strength of schedule aren’t variables in the model, instead the “meaning” of one’s margin of victory depends on one’s opponents average margin of victory .

by PoliSam on Nov 24, 2009 4:18 PM PST up reply actions

If we've played an easy schedule, then if we're good, then our margin of victory should be high.

If we weren’t good, then those games would have been closer. Will playing good teams lower that margin of victory? Absolutely. It should bring us back down to the rest of the contenders. That is, if we’re good. If we’re not, it should dump us a tier lower. But our margin of victory is where it’s supposed to be right now for where our expectations are.

At least, that’s the way I see it. Don’t know if that’s right, just shooting from the hip on that one.

πάτερ, ἄφες αὐτοῖς, οὐ γὰρ οἴδασιν τί ποιοῦσιν.

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by T Darkstar on Nov 24, 2009 5:17 PM PST up reply actions

A sneak peak at a playoff predictor

FYI worth, below are the predicted number of wins you get for each team in the nba using a Hollinger type playoff rating.

The model takes into account teams played, margin of victory, and home court advantage in determining the power rating.

In predicting the number of wins, the model estimates the probability of winning given the predicted margin of victory. I’m not saying this is correct, but it will be close to what Hollinger produces when he does so.

Predicted Wins Team
64.52 Atlanta Hawks
61.11 Denver Nuggets
60.09 Portland Trail Blazers
60.02 Boston Celtics
59.35 Dallas Mavericks
56.73 Houston Rockets
56.55 Phoenix Suns
56.45 Orlando Magic
55.59 Los Angeles Lakers
51.72 Oklahoma City Thunder
49.25 San Antonio Spurs
46.23 Cleveland Cavaliers
45.65 Utah Jazz
44.55 Milwaukee Bucks
43.71 Toronto Raptors
43.33 Detroit Pistons
40.15 Miami Heat
39.01 Sacramento Kings
36.39 New Orleans Hornets
36.21 Chicago Bulls
31.49 Golden State Warriors
29.84 Washington Wizards
29.71 Charlotte Bobcats
29.03 Indiana Pacers
27.44 Los Angeles Clippers
21.53 Memphis Grizzlies
21.26 Philadelphia 76ers
16.60 New York Knickerbockers
10.19 New Jersey Nets
6.31 Minnesota Timberwolves

by PoliSam on Nov 24, 2009 3:37 PM PST reply actions

I'd be shock if they won 60 games...

I’d be equally shocked if Atlanta won 64 games. I don’t think any teams are going to win 60 games this year….

by jenstcy on Nov 24, 2009 3:46 PM PST up reply actions

Really?

You may be correct, but we’ve got teams that are going to struggle to win ten games all season.

*Unless KP has a secret plan that makes this statement incorrect.
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by staylost on Nov 24, 2009 4:07 PM PST up reply actions

maybe so.

I’d guess the Lakers get 60 wins, with Gasol back. There aren’t really that far off the pace with Gasol only playing a couple of teams. My guess is this over-predicts the Hawks wins too. Just a gut feeling that the Hawks are over achieving.

RE: the Blazers. I want to see how the new (original) rotation works over a larger sample of games.

by PoliSam on Nov 24, 2009 4:10 PM PST up reply actions