On Dec. 15, Brandon Bass will be traded; will the Blazers get him?
by Blazer Guy on Nov 23, 2009 9:04 AM PST
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PrintWhen Brandon Bass signed with the Orlando Magic as a free agent this summer, he was expecting to get more minutes than he had in Dallas. In retrospect, that wasn't a very good call. While Bass got some playing time early in the season, during Rashard Lewis' suspension, he's been riding the pine since Lewis' return. With both Lewis and Ryan Anderson ahead of him in the rotation, Bass has racked up two straight DNPs (and he only got Bayless-like minutes in the few games before that). The problem is that Bass doesn't really fit Stan Van Gundy's 4-gunner strategy. Both Lewis and Anderson can hit threes and spread the floor. Bass is a decent shooter, but he doesn't have that kind of range.
Still, it's crazy for an established power forward of Bass' skill level to be rotting away on the bench. That's why I'm absolutely confident that, barring injury to either Lewis or Anderson, Bass will be traded as soon as he's eligible, which is December 15. As that date approaches, Orlando's front office will receive inquiries and trade offers from a number of teams, and I'm pretty confident the Blazers will be one of them (the Blazers tried to sign Bass during the off-season). It will be a bidding war and I suspect that Orlando will quickly pull the trigger on the best offer they receive.
So what exactly are they looking for? Orlando has two needs. The most obvious is temporary help at PG in light of Jameer Nelson's injury. The intensity of this need will depend on how Nelson's recovery progresses over the next few weeks. Their other need is for an upgrade at backup SF (currently Matt Barnes). Ideally, Orlando would like a good wing defender who can hit threes.
So what do the Blazers have to offer? Well, two weeks ago, this would have been an easy question. With both Jameer Nelson and Travis Outlaw healthy, I think both Orlando and Portland would have readily agreed to a Bass for Outlaw swap. Outlaw can play SF and would fit with Orlando's system. Bass would be a good value in exchange for Outlaw's expiring contract. But an injured Outlaw is of little use to Orlando.
With Nelson's injury, however, Steve Blake may be exactly what Orlando's looking for. Blake is the perfect stop-gap at PG. He's an experienced starting PG who can hit threes and whose contract is expiring. His salary also exactly matches Bass's. While I think Orlando would readily agree to a Blake for Bass swap, I think the Blazers would be hesitant. For whatever reason, McMillan is very high on Blake and seems to consider him integral to his rotation. Roy is also very attached to Blake. Personally, I think a Blake for Bass trade would be healthy for the Blazers in the long run. It would give us a much needed post-scoring threat and would force Roy to learn how to play with Miller (who is better than Blake). But, alas, I'm not running the show here.
The other obvious trade chip is Bayless. Though Bayless has not yet proven himself to be an outside shooter, Orlando might be willing to gamble on his upside. It would likely depend on what other offers they were getting for Bass. From a Blazer perspective, trading Bass for Bayless would obviously help in the near term given how little Bayless is being utilized. I'm not sure I'd make that move, though. I'm still of the opinion that Bayless will be a very good NBA player if given the chance. I'd rather clear room to move him into our rotation.
And finally, there's always the option of offering Andre Miller for Bass (to make it work, Orlando would need to use its trade exception or throw in someone else), though I think that's not such a good trade for either team. Miller doesn't fit as well with Orlando's style and his contract is larger and longer-term (though he would be good at feeding Dwight Howard). And from the Blazers persective, I'm still not ready to give up on the Miller experiment. Moreover, if we're going to trade him, we may be able to get someone better than Bass.
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another option
I agree that Orlando would be hesitant to do this, but I would still offer Outlaw, and not any of the other options. Of all of our players, only Outlaw and Blake make much sense in this deal. However, I think that Blake remains to valuable to us, either in his current role, or as the primary backup. If we traded him, then we would have to be willing to have Bayless as our primary backup, which would be a problem if Miller were to go down.
I know it’s very difficult to trade injured players, but Outlaw is not a major unknown, and his injury is not one that tends to ruin careers (except in big men). Additionally, Bass isn’t currently providing much more value to Orlando than Outlaw is to us, so they wouldn’t lose much in the short term. Finally, his expiring contract give Orlando some freedom if things don’t work out with his foot.
Possibly
I think the problem is that Orlando wants to win this year and would be looking for immediate help. Outlaw is just too much of a question mark for them. I suspect that they’ll get better offers for Bass than an injured Travis Outlaw.
www.blazerguy.com
roy, n nate will look like a couple a grown ups in a crib throwing temper tantums you go and trade their "security blanket".
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out, burns out farms, and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
We talked about this, yesterday
Before his injury, I would’ve traded Outlaw to Orlando for Bass in less than a heartbeat. While Brandon isn’t a great rebounding PF, he would be a better long-term option at backup PF than Travis. Unfortunately, the Magic will be way over the cap next July, and they won’t have any use for Travis’ expiring contract, so I don’t think that deal would fly
Blake is intriguing, because I think he would fit well with Orlando’s offense (spread the court, knock down the 3) I just have no confidence that KP will “override” Nate and Roy and deal Blake away, not unless the guy coming back is a starter (Caron Butler, etc) Like it or not, Steve will be a Blazer for as long as he wants to be; the events of this past week should have solidified that fact to every Bedger
the Blazers tried to sign Bass during the off-season
This is news to me, and I followed Portland’s pursuit of FAs pretty closely, back in July
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
oh, and Bayless
I don’t see Jerryd as being a fit with the Magic, I think they’d rather have a veteran PG like Blake, and they should have better offers for Bass than just Rex
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Blazer interest in Bass
I remember reading a number of stories saying that the Blazers were interested in Bass and were among the teams talking to his agent. We obviously choose to go after Hedo (and then Millsap) first, and by the time those both fell through, Bass had signed with Orlando. But had he still been around, we might well have tried to sign him. My memory could be failing me, I suppose (wouldn’t be the first time), but I’m fairly confident that I read over the summer that the Blazer front office really liked Bass.
www.blazerguy.com
If KP wants him
and we really have soured on Andre, the deal is pretty obvious.
Andre Miller for Brandon Bass and Anthony Johnson. Helps them at PG, helps us at backup PF, gives us injury cover at PG, even gets us a little more cap room if KP wants to make another deal.
Miller’s contract isn’t longer term than Bass’. Brandon has a three year contract with a player option for the fourth, all years at $4 million. Andre has a two year contract with a team option for the third. The guaranteed money is very close, it’s just that in Andre’s case it comes in two years instead of 3. And the option year on Andre’s contract is a team option, which is much more attractive. Since both teams are going to be over the cap anyway, the difference in the contracts is not likely to be a major factor.
For Orlando, the question would be a) how quickly Jameer is coming back and b) how well Andre would fit their system. For Portland, the questions would be a) are we still hopeless at backup PF, or do we think we have an answer in Juwan and/or one of the rookies b) are we optimistic about actually finding a role for Andre that works, or is he going to be wasted here.
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5
This is what I was thinking as well
as much as it pains me to think about it.
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I agree that this deal is possible
I think Orlando would probaby prefer Blake (because of his short contract and ability to shoot the 3), but Miller is certainly better than any other PG they’re likely to get mid-season, so they might well go for this. Depends on Nelson’s prognosis.
From our perspective, though, replacing a top-notch PG with a backup PF would be disappointing.
www.blazerguy.com
no doubt
To think that the RLEC could (hypothetically) result in KP acquiring only Brandon Bass and Anthony Johnson is depressing at best and infuriating at worst
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Oh, I don't know
If KP had signed Bass this summer and kept the rest of the space available for a possible trade, I wouldn’t have complained too much.
And we would have used some of it to sign a low cost vet PG for injury cover.
It’s not what we’d hoped to get out of the cap space, but it wouldn’t have been awful.
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5
trading Miller or Blake
Would be a huge vote of confidence for Bayless… which is exactly why I think it WONT happen.
Two points scored by GO’ = "thunderdunk"
Might depend on how Bayless plays in the next month
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5
Not so sure
People always make it seem as if it would be a really big deal to rely on Bayless as our backup PG. But if you look around the league, most teams, including the really good ones, are weak at the backup PG position. We’d hardly be alone. Plus, with Roy on the team, the Blazers don’t rely much on their PG anyway. Bayless can easily handle the 10-15 a game a backup PG receives. And if we were to lose our starting PG (Blake or Miller), we’d just lean more heavily on Roy and Rudy for ball handling duties and pick up some journeyman veteran PG to fill the void. And maybe, just maybe Bayless would respond to the opportunity and grow a lot as a player.
www.blazerguy.com
Andre Miller doesn't fit a 4-outside/1-inside spread offense, so I feel that kills any shot of him in Orlando.
If anything, a Brandon Bass for Travis Outlaw makes sense. Outlaw, who has an expiring contract, would be an acquisition that’d allow Otis Smith to get out from under the Bass contract.
Dear Paul Allen:
Fire Nate McMillan & hire Jeff Van Gundy.
Sincerely,
AK1984
What if Blake is starting to boost his value?
If Blake was on the bench Orlando (or anybody else needing a PG) might either not care for Blake, or would be in a stronger negotiating position. By offering a starting PG, maybe we could ask for more (or closer to fair value); and then Miller starts. Maybe crazy, but then again…
I hope so, but I don't think so...
I think Blake is starting because Nate and Roy like him better than Miller.
www.blazerguy.com
Too much is being made of the "They like Blake" rationale
The attitude during pre-season this year was horrible. Brandon took it easy. LMA was distracted (and he gets easily distracted). And many of the others were being rested. The team thought they could simply turn the switch on and they’d be back to last year’s level (if not better). It doesn’t work that way. The team is a mess, with or without anybody liking Blake.
In the middle of the mess, smart strategy is to try and get back to what you were doing last year, and then build from there. Control the changed variables, bring back semblance of calm and identity and build from there. Andre Miller is too good and brings too much for current line-up to be long term solution, just like three guard line-up was also not final solution. Just because we blew out the t’wolves does not mean anything has been fixed. it will take more time.
Unfortunately, the team is very young and does not know how to use the easy part of the schedule to learn. They let their guard down and then cant get themselves back together again. [Nate, too, is young as a coach]. Losing defensive stopper for early part of game (Batum) and alternate go-to option for fourth quarter (Travis) hasn’t helped either.
The team will be tested next month when the tougher schedule rolls around. At which time they will revert to buckling down, playing hard for 48 minutes, owning the 4th quarter like they did, and eventually regaining an inner strength. That’s when they will figure out who they are, and better include the new parts.
on the contrary
I don’t think the statement “Brandon and Nate really like Steve Blake” can be over-emphasized
just ask Andre Miller
The bench needs more scoring, Miller can score more than Blake, so Andre goes to the bench. Seems pretty simple, as long as Miller “buys in” to the concept
My concern is that Andre plays with Oden, LMA and Roy enough to become familiar with their games and they all can be effective together in late-game situations and during the playoffs. I also have trouble reconciling a minutes distribution pattern that sees Steve earning more mpg than Andre.
I’m trying to think of an example in Blazer history that illustrates this dichotomy…what if Danny Young played more than Terry Porter, back in ’89-90? What if Damon Stoudamire or Greg Anthony played more than Scottie Pippen, back in ’99-00? What if Larry Steele played more than Dave Twardzik, in ’76-77?
That last one might be the best comp
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
the whole 'two-unit'
thing in general is such a damn joke.
No team in the NBA actually employs that kind of philosophy. We should not ever have Greg, Lamarcus, and Roy all on the bench at the same time.
by darkhelmit54 on Nov 23, 2009 2:54 PM PST up reply actions
no coach except Nate
I completely agree with you in principle, but Nate actually does go to a full 5 man bench for large stretches of the game, at least when he has his full rotation healthy. And even when he doesn’t. There was a stretch in the Minnesota game (when it was still close) that all five bench guys were in, including Howard and Bayless.
I’ve always thought that was a bad way to do things this way, but Nate does it.
www.blazerguy.com
but even with a "normal" coach and rotation
Let’s take Nate out of the equation. If Roy-LMA-Oden start and Miller comes in at the 6-8 minute of each half, how much “overlap” could we expect where Andre lays alongside the big 3?
Answer: probably not enough to establish the necessary synergy that will lead to the big 3 meshing with Miller, at least not for quite awhile. Especially not re: Greg, when he’s sent to the bench with early foul trouble at about the same time that Andre is checking into the game
But again, the bench hasn’t been scoring enough, even before Outlaw’s foot injury. Nate’s gotta do what he can to get more offense in the game in the late 1st quarter to early-mid 2nd quarter, and he’s hoping Andre-Rudy can provide that. If Miller takes over and can actually produce points and with that “offensive” juggernaut (Przy, Howard, etc) then Andre should replace Roy as the team MVP
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
exactly, Andre should start
however, you could have Greg come out at the 6 minute mark, Roy come out at the nine minute mark and aldridge come out at the end of the first.
Greg come back in at the beginning of the second, Roy come back in with 9 minutes left, and Aldridge come back in with six minutes left.
that way Roy and Aldridge get 18 minutes and close the half
and Greg gets between 12 and 18 minutes depending on the foul situation but there’s no stretch w/none of them in.
by darkhelmit54 on Nov 23, 2009 9:32 PM PST up reply actions
Trading Blake, given what happened over the weekend, would break a major rule
That is, trading a starter to upgrade your bench. At least, that’s a rule in my book, especially if it isn’t the first guy off the bench.
That makes Bayless or Miller the more likely options in my view
Two points scored by GO’ = "thunderdunk"
not if
you don’t consider blake a starter…
like 90% of the rest of the league and 90% of our fans.
by darkhelmit54 on Nov 23, 2009 1:12 PM PST up reply actions
In a perfect world I'd offer Blake
but as others have pointed out, that isn’t happening unless KP is in the mood to tick off Nate and Roy. I like Miller and Bayless much more as fits short and long term than Blake, but if Miller isn’t happy/becomes an issue or Nate is convinced Jerryd will never be a player (which I strongly disagree with) I would rather see KP get something for them rather than nothing. Bass fills a huge role on this team, and he’s still pretty young, so he would be able to contribute throughout the Blazers window.
"man, steve blake is clutch *dead*" - Ben Golliver on Twitter
Miller isn't a long term fit
He’s too old to be considered that. He might be slowing down already. Chances are high he slows down next year or the year after.
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5
Or did you mean Miller short term and Bayless long term?
Maybe I read you wrong.
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5
Should have been more clear
Miller I like in the short term, Bayless down the road
"man, steve blake is clutch *dead*" - Ben Golliver on Twitter
by blazeraddict on Nov 23, 2009 3:11 PM PST up reply actions
How is that possible?
Miller doesn’t fit as well with Orlando’s style
Isn’t Miller is an over-looked, under-appreciated all-star that can make any group of players better and fit any system regardless of the other stars around him or the coach’s system?
Any team without a top-10 PG should be salivating to become Miller’s 6th team in 11 years if Portland is stupid enough to give him up.
OK, seriously, I’d reluctantly (because I rather get more for Miller) go with jscot’s proposal of Andre Miller for Brandon Bass and Anthony Johnson if Miller fails to embrace the backup PG role. Miller could do great things with Rudy and that group, and he’s good insurance against a Blake injury. But Nate/Miller/Roy have to find an offense to effectively play Miller with Roy. Miller can’t play only 12 minutes a game while Roy rests, or we definitely should be trading him.
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Nov 23, 2009 12:45 PM PST reply actions
I enjoy wet dreams too!
But Nelson (who is an All Star PG) will be back before December 15th AND the Magic have no interest in dumping Bass. He is a dam good PF with a per of 20.76, he just happens to be the 3rd best PF on the Magic.
Think about it, the Magic have been at full strenth for a total of 1 game this year. With Nelson back, they are not giving up any hard earned assets unless there is a serious long term injury that creates a void that has to be filled.
Pardon the interruption, dream on.
by NC Magic Fan on Nov 23, 2009 1:08 PM PST reply actions
Don't be silly
Any team that wants to win a title this year (and Orlando certainly does) is going to seriously consider trading a guy (Bass) who doesn’t have a spot in the rotation for someone who will actually play. No one is questioning that Bass is a good player. That’s the whole point. He’s a good player who the Magic don’t need. So why not trade him for someone you do need?
I completely agree that if Nelson’s recovery is going well and it looks like he’ll be back, the Magic won’t want to trade for a PG. But knee injuries can be tricky. If Nelson’s recovery is delayed, trading for a PG will be tempting. And even if Nelson’s recovery is going great, the Magic are going to seriously consider trading either Bass or Gortat for another quality wing. You can bet on it.
www.blazerguy.com
The Magic already have a 10 man rotation
once Nelson is back. Why trade Bass, a viable backup at 2 positions, for someone else to sit on the bench? They are too deep already. (pun intended)
by NC Magic Fan on Nov 23, 2009 1:37 PM PST up reply actions
two reasons
1) Because one of those 10 guys is Matt Barnes. You could easily turn Brandon Bass into someone better than Matt Barnes.
2) Because one of those guys is Jason Williams. And he’s currently starting. Whether or not Nelson comes back soon, you could turn Bass into someone better than J-Will.
And I’ll give a third bonus reason. Having someone of Bass’ talent get DNPs every night is a recipe for unhealthy chemistry. His unhappiness will infect the locker room.
www.blazerguy.com
2 counters
1) Orlando is not as down on Barnes as you are. Good scrapper, rebounder and carreer 32.5% for the 3 (although way down this year). His time will be down and JJ’s will be up until Nelson returns. He is a spot player who does not complain.
2) You underestimate J-Will. The best assist to turnover ratio in the Association. Loves to feed the shooters. He only has 2-3 weeks until he becomes one of the better backup PG’s in the league. Why get someone who demands more time and shots to play 15 minutes a game and become a malcontent?
Bonus, I have a great recipe for shrimp Newburg I can share with you.
by NC Magic Fan on Nov 23, 2009 3:15 PM PST up reply actions
When you're touting a career 32.5% average from 3
You know a guy just isn’t that good.
We do have pieces that would make your rotation over Barnes/Williams so it would seem logical that we make a deal that would help both sides.
The Nelson stuff was predicated on some rumours that the Magic had been entertaining the thought of trading him. I think we all realise that is a pipe dream however.
"Oden was a huge factor in that...thank goodness he got in foul trouble...nobody could guard Oden" Don Nelson
And Andre Miller
a 20.8% 3-point carreer average or Bayless at 27.6% would be an improverment?
by NC Magic Fan on Nov 23, 2009 3:55 PM PST up reply actions
Nope
But I wouldn’t cite that as one of their strengths as you did with Barnes.
BTW If you are in love with 3pt shooters, Webster (.370), Blake (.391), Rudy (.397) or Outlaw (.361) would all be upgrades over Barnes.
"Oden was a huge factor in that...thank goodness he got in foul trouble...nobody could guard Oden" Don Nelson
Orlando only likes 2 shots
Dunks or the 3-ball. Any thing else is inefficient. That is why they are so good! (That and great defense)>
by NC Magic Fan on Nov 23, 2009 4:30 PM PST up reply actions
I think you're making our case for us
If threes are what Orlando cares about, they should trade Bass for someone who can make them. They should also upgrade over Barnes, who’s not a very good three point shooter.
Blake or Outlaw both shoot threes very well. Bayless is a bit of a gamble in that department, but my strong suspicion is that—with regular playing time—he’ll prove himself to be a decent three point shooter.
Miller won’t ever be a good three point shooter, but he’s an excellent scoring PG nonetheless and one of the better lob passers in the NBA (something that would be good on a team with Dwight Howard).
www.blazerguy.com
Make it a case of beer
Orlando is not down on Barnes, he fills time, makes rebounds, defends and hustles. He backs up Pietrus (or Carter) nicely.
Outlaw is damaged goods. No one wants a big with bad feet. Foot injuries are much worse than knee injuries for creating long absences. Blake would just dupicate JJ, who is a better defender, passer and shooter.
Miller will never fit the 4-1 offense.
Who you got that is is a SF, 6’8" or more, can defend fast 3’s and hit 35% of his 3-balls?
by NC Magic Fan on Nov 24, 2009 5:06 AM PST up reply actions
Vince Carter's recent play shows that the Magic will tolerate inefficient 2 point jumpshots
The Magic aren’t just the 3pt or hammer it home team they were last year. Andre Miller would help your team. Or just pick from one of our 3pt shooters if you like. You can have all of the ones I mentioned for Nelson and Bass ; P
"Oden was a huge factor in that...thank goodness he got in foul trouble...nobody could guard Oden" Don Nelson
Correction
PER of 15.9, the 2nd best in 20.76.
by NC Magic Fan on Nov 23, 2009 1:10 PM PST reply actions
Bayless.
Why give up a solid rotation player (Blake) instead of one who has proven he’s not a point guard? We already have 2 shooting guards.
Keep your expectations low and you won't be disappointed.
Cause potential is a lot more fun
=)
/s
Rip City Baby...People have no idea what is coming.
Follow my twitter www.twitter.com/PDXBlazersFTW, @PDXBlazersFTW. Lots of random Blazer Posts from links I find around the blogosphere.
Memphis has a lot of potential.
Keep your expectations low and you won't be disappointed.
If they had acquired Josh Smith and actually drafted a useful player instead of Thabust, they could be playoff contenders right now
Ceterum censeo Lakers esse delendam
They might have been better a couple years ago if they didn't behave like a farm club for the Lakers.
Pau Gasol for Javaris Crittendon and Kwame Brown?!
Keep your expectations low and you won't be disappointed.
depends on if we plan to re-sign Blake
If not, it makes much more sense to trade Blake and get Jerryd some actual playing time. If we plan to keep Blake long term, then I think you’re right; Bayless should go.
www.blazerguy.com
I think they should for a reasonably priced contract that isn't too long term.
It’s probably a better at this point to look for another guy to develop for the future.
Keep your expectations low and you won't be disappointed.
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