The Sched Ahead -- 11/23/09 Week Five

SUMMARY INFO

This weekly schedule analysis is based on four categories of games:

1. Home games against sub .500 teams.  Cream Puff Home.
2. Home games against winning teams (I'm including teams right at .500 in this category).  Jawbreaker Home.
3. Road games at losing teams.  Banana Peel Road.
4. Road games at winning teams.  Rocky Road.

A general formula for success in the NBA is to win almost all of Cat 1 (Cream Puff Home), a majority of Cat 2 (Jawbreaker Home) and Cat 3 (Banana Peel Road), and win some in Cat 4 (Rocky Road).  The contenders may win more than half of their Cat 4 games.

Back to Backs (hereafter BtoB) are also tracked so as to provide further data on schedule difficulty.

Last week's update

CHANGES THIS WEEK

And on to week five.  I am still keeping half an eye on OKC, but both Utah and N.O. made the case this week that they belong in this analysis.  For now, we'll continue to track the nine that contended for the playoffs last year.

Detroit and Sacramento were .500+ last week, but probably won't be again.  San Antonio, Toronto, and Indiana are also now losing teams, with varying prospects of reversing that.  The only team that moved to the right side of .500 is Utah.  OKC stayed on the cusp at .500 exactly, and counts as a winning team.

This means that lots of Cat 4 Rocky Road games have been reclassified to Cat 3 Banana Peels, and Cat 2 Jawbreaker Home games have become Cat 1 Cream Puffs.  Most of this will stabilize in the next few weeks.

COMMENTS ON THE WEEK

Portland (2-2) won two Cream Puffs at home and lost both road games, a Cat 4 at Atlanta in a good effort and a fiasco Cat 3 Banana Peel at G.S.  Not a horrible week, but not very good, either.

Dallas (3-0) is looking strong, with a really nice back to back Cat 4 win at Milwaukee and two Cream Puffs at home (Spurs and Kings).  Kind of silly to view the Spurs as a Cream Puff, but that's the way they are playing right now, so I won't apologize.  Not sure how this Mavs team lost to the Wizards at home to start the season.

Denver (2-1) had a "shrug" week, sandwiching solid home wins vs. two mid-level Eastern teams (Cat 2 vs. Chicago, Cat 1 vs. Toronto) around a Cat 3 Banana Peel loss at the Clips.  The Chicago win was a BtoB for the Nuggets.  Last year, it took them months to lose a Banana Peel road game against a losing team.  They would have hoped to be opening a lead on us with the way we've played, and the fact they haven't means if we can get our act together, our early season struggles won't have hurt us too badly.

Houston (2-2) didn't have a great week, losing a Cat 2 at home (Phoenix), winning a Cat 3 at Minnesota, losing a Cat 4 at Atlanta, and winning a Cream Puff (Cat 1) at home against Sacramento.  Four in five nights, and they won the two in which they were on the second of a back to back, losing the first in both cases.  Not a horrible week, but you want to get your home games against your Western rivals. 

L.A.  (3-0) rolled through three home games, a Cream Puff against Detroit and two alleged Jawbreakers against Chicago and OKC, both of which might well be losing teams by next week.  Don't fear these guys yet.  They have only played 3 of 13 on the road.  Their 5th road game doesn't come until December 12th, their 22nd game of the season.  All of this will catch up to them eventually, and they'll have to prove they can handle the road.  

N.O. (3-1) sent a memo to the league that reports of their demise are exaggerated.  A really nice week without Chris Paul, with a Cat 1 home win against the Clips and two home Jawbreakers against Phoenix and Atlanta (who was on a BtoB), losing only a Cat 4 Rocky Road on a back to back at Miami.  The kind of week that can jump start a season.

Phoenix (2-1) had a pretty good week, getting a really nice Cat 4 win at Houston, giving it back with a Cat 3 loss at N.O., and winning a Cat 1 Cream Puff against Detroit, who was on a back to back.  It's always good to get a Cat 4, but when you have a chance to steal one at N.O. with CP3 out, you want to get it, and they'll be disappointed with their week. 

S.A. (1-2) is just not looking good, losing a Cat 4 at Dallas (understandable) but also a Cat 2 at home against Utah (both teams on a BtoB), their first home loss against the Jazz since 1999.  They closed the week with a home win against Washington, which while it was Cat 1 was a nice win, the Wizards looking more dangerous with Jamison back from injury.  Still a bad week for the Spurs.   

Utah (3-0) moved over .500 for the first time this year, winning two Cream Puffs at home (Toronto, Detroit) and a nice win at San Antonio.  Some people wrote them off too early.  They haven't been great this year, but they aren't dead yet.

Helped themselves:  Dallas, L.A., N.O., Utah.

So-so: Denver, Phoenix. 

Hurt themselves:  Portland, Houston, S.A.

The tables:

Cat 4 -- Rocky Road

Our start of season advantage in this category is gone.  Denver, Houston, and Phoenix have an advantage here, with fewer of these toughest games remaining.  Our only win in this category is at OKC, which may not stay in this category long. 

Cat 3 -- Banana Peel Road 

Utah, historically one of the worst road teams, is the only team to have played any of these and not lost at least one.  Last year, our first road loss in this category was at Golden State.  We still have a really good percentage in this category. 

Cat 2 -- Jawbreaker Home

L.A. has played most of their games at home, but at least not all of the games have been against weak teams.  Phoenix has not yet played a single winning team in Phoenix.  We've taken two home losses, but so have some other teams.

Cat 1 -- Cream Puff Home

Well, at least we're taking care of business against weak teams at home. 

All Home Games

Houston and S.A. dropped home games this week.  There is no real disparity in home/away schedule remaining, except for L.A.  They have been living on home games.

All Away Games

Before this week, Western playoff contenders overall were 26-25 in road games.  That record is now 30-32 -- a combined 4-7 for the week.  Our road record is still better than all but Phoenix, Dallas, and L.A.  L.A. and S.A. have hardly been out on the road.  The Spurs tie Indiana for the fewest games played, so will have a marginally heavier schedule going forward.

All Games Against Winning Teams

San Antonio and Utah have the most remaining games against winning teams, Denver, Houston, and L.A. the fewest.  We're in the middle of the pack.  All of Dallas' losses have come to losing teams, as have all of Utah's wins.  Utah and San Antonio have simply been bad against the better teams.  We haven't been a lot better.

All Games Against Losing Teams

Despite the G.S. loss, our record against losing teams is still superb, and is keeping us in the mix.   

Back to Back Games Remaining

The category shifting makes this look a lot better than last week, three of our Cat 4 back to backs turned into Cat 3s.  Of remaining back to backs, the following are the number of games where the other team is on a back to back as well: 

Net, the games where only the Western contender in question is on a back to back:

Note the scheduling disadvantages here, especially for LA, Portland, and Dallas.  Approximately half of LA's road games at losing teams come when they are on a back to back and the other team isn't.  Expect them to drop a couple of these games which they might not otherwise lose, as a result.  For us and Dallas, it isn't so much that we have a lot of these games as that a larger percentage of our tough road games are back to backs. 

Now, we look at games where we are not on a back to back, but our opponent is:

In the "tired opponents" category, advantage Denver and Utah, disadvantage Portland and L.A.  

The Coming Week

1. Portland.  Four games this week, as the early season grind continues.  Next week, we'll get a couple days off in a row, finally.  Start with a Cat 2 home against Chicago, then two Cream Puff Cat 1s against NJ (who will be on a BtoB) and Memphis, then a tough BtoB at Utah.  Less than three wins would be a major disappointment, four would be very encouraging. 
2. Dallas.  Tough week for the Mavs.  4 in 5 nights, starting with a Cream Puff at home against the Warriors, then the next night at Houston for a Cat 4.  Then a night off before a Banana Peel at Indiana, and then on to Cleveland for a Cat 4 (both teams on a BtoB).  2-2 would actually be a pretty decent week for them. 
3. Denver.  Cream Puff week for them.  It starts with NJ at home, then a BtoB Banana Peel at Minnesota, then two more Cream Puffs at home to the Knicks and Minnesota.  If they lose one of these, it will be a real bonus for us.
4. Houston.  Tough home games against Dallas and S.A., then closing the week at OKC.  Two wins would be a solid week for them. 
5. L.A.  A Cream Puff Cat 1 against the Knicks, then their system will go into total shock as they play a game away from L.A.  Well, except they'll still be in California, they go to the Warriors (but on 3 days rest), then have a "tough" back to back where?  In L.A., of course, against the powerful Nets.  They are in the middle of an entire four weeks where they never leave California, five weeks where they only have two away games, one at Denver and one at Golden State.  This is not necessarily bad -- the schedule will catch up to them, and they'll have to prove they can win the tough games, too. 
6. N.O.  A tough Cat 2 at home to Milwaukee, then a Banana Peel at Sacramento.  Both are winnable, but neither is likely to be easy for them right now.  
7. Phoenix.  A Cream Puff at home to Memphis, then out on their second Eastern trip of the year with two Banana Peels at Minnesota and Toronto. 
8. S.A.  An opportunity to get well, with 3 of 4 at home.  Starts with a tough Cat 2 at home against the Bucks, then a Cream Puff against the Warriors (who will be on a back to back).  A Cat 4 Rocky Road at Houston, and then close with another home Cream Puff against Philadelphia.  
9. Utah.  The heart of a six game homestand for them, with three Cat 2s (OKC, Chicago, Portland), though perhaps only Portland will be categorized as a winning team by the end of the week.  We'll be on a back to back.  They will be expecting to get all three of these, which would put them back in the hunt. 

That's it for this week.  A win tonight should pretty much guarantee a good week for us -- a win at Utah would be a bonus.  Lose tonight, and we have to take care of business in our other games and win at Utah to salvage a good week.  If Chicago is going to salvage a decent record on this road trip, let them do it in Utah, not in Portland.

And Finally

Remember tickets for kids? 

Dave's original post announcing the 400 ticket target.

Dave's latest post says over 300 of the 400 have been sold.  If you haven't bought any yet, your chance to have a part in this may be gone soon.

From one of Dave's posts:

Blazersedge Night:  Monday, January 25th:  Blazers vs. Hornets

Tickets sell for $22 each.  There is a $5 service charge per order no matter what the size.  Save money by buying tickets together with friends.

How to Order

You can call the Blazers directly at 503-797-9637.  PLEASE MAKE SURE to tell them you're ordering for Blazersedge Night and that you want the tickets to be donated to the kids.  (Side Note:  We also have a block of tickets reserved for BE folks who want to attend.  You can buy seats for yourself if you wish.)  The Blazers accept all of the usual forms of payment.

You can also make a PayPal donation to blazersedge22@yahoo.com.  We will pool the money collected and purchase tickets with it.  You can donate enough for multiple tickets or even partial amounts...anything is welcome.

You can also e-mail me directly at blazersub@yahoo.com  if you'd prefer to send a check via snail mail.