From Benefit of the Doubt to Just Plain Doubt.
by upper left corner on Nov 21, 2009 11:09 AM PST
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PrintAs a fan, I have consistently supported Nate. My position has been pretty simple, "Nate is getting good results, and he seems to have good rapport with the players, so who am I to complain." I'm just a fan, and I am sure Nate has forgotten more Xs and Os than I've ever known. Whatever complaints I might have about the rotation or the team's style of play were outweighed by the team's overall improvement. Whenever I felt the urge to grouse, I tried to restrain myself with the knowledge that Nate had earned "the benefit of the doubt."
Last night's game was excruciating, the type of game that inevitably provokes a chorus of complaints about the Coach. Generally, I hate the kind of bandwagon fans who start hurling accusations at players and coaches at the first whiff of trouble. I prefer a bit more patience and a bit longer view. In a long season, bad games happen. In general, my observation would be, "limit the damage and move on."
However, when I woke this morning, and started replaying in my mind the high definition ugliness I witnessed on my TV last night, I found that my usual restraints were missing. If this had just been one lousy game, I could dismiss it. But as I thought back over the past couple of months, I realized that my confidence in Nate has been steadily eroding.
I'm not at a point where I think Nate should be fired, but I am at a point where "benefit of the doubt" has turned into doubt. Follow me across the jump to my list of concerns:
1) Nate's handling of integrating Miller: I think Nate's approach has been troubling from the start. Andre Miller has had a very distinguished career in the NBA. Coming in he had a career PER of 18.0. His play has been just below All-Star level for the past half dozen years. By contrast, Steve Blake has been a player who has struggled to establish himself as a starter through-out his career. Blake's career PER of 12.0 tells the story; he is a solid journeyman somewhere between a quality back-up and a weak starter. His last season PER of 14.4 was better, but largely built on a career year from 3 pt range.
Nate's stated approach was to "let Blake and Miller battle it out in camp." In retrospect, this appears to have been a smoke screen. Miller outplayed Blake through-out the preseason, but Blake got more than 80% of the minutes with the starters. Nate tipped the playing field to favor Blake from the start. Given what Miller has accomplished in his career, it is no wonder that Miller perceived this approach as a lack of respect.
Despite Blake's poor play in preseason, and the turbulence created by his decision to start the lesser player, Nate stubbornly stuck to his decision. On one level, Nate's decision made sense. Blake is a proven fit with Brandon, and the second team seemed to be a group that would benefit from Miller's ability to play more up-tempo and his ability to penetrate and dish. However, the downside of Nate's decision was equally obvious: both Blake and Miller acted like guys who were stressing. Blake was constantly looking over his shoulder. He was trying to do too much with the ball and his turnover rate soared. His outside shot, normally the best part of his game, was noticeably off. Miller also showed signs of stress with higher turnovers and a lower shooting percentage than his career numbers would have suggested.
Nate stuck to his guns, and the team started the first five games with Blake at the helm. A lousy record of 2-3, forced Nate to try something different, and so, the three guard line-up was born.....
2) Nate's three guard line-up: How Nate arrived at the three guard line-up is a mystery. Perhaps he was unable to acknowledge that keeping Blake as the starter had been a mistake. Perhaps he felt pressured to appease Roy. Perhaps he was showing loyalty to Blake. Perhaps it was a response to Webster's inconsistent play. Perhaps he genuinely thought this was the best starting five to put on the floor. Whatever Nate's thought process, the results on the floor have clearly been mixed. On one hand, the team went on a six game win streak against mostly dreadful opponents before loosing two of the last three. On the other, the team struggled keeping teams out of the paint. The bigs tended to get in foul trouble. The team's rebounding dominance was reduced, and the team was forced to play more zone which exacerbated the problem.
Overall, I think it is probably too early to draw definitive conclusions about the three guard line-up. The team's defensive numbers are improved, but it is difficult to tell if this is just a mirage created by lousy opponents or a solid effect of the three guard line-up. Both Aldridge and Roy have seen reduced production. Miller's numbers have improved, but remain inconsistent, and well below his career averages. Oden seems to clearly benefit from Miller's presence on the floor, but continues to struggle with fouls. In the midst of all the ambiguity about the three guard line-up, one fact is indisputable: Steve Blake continues to struggle......
3) Nate's stubborn overuse of Steve Blake: Blake's season PER remains around 9.0. His turnovers are up. His assists are down. His True Shooting % is the third lowest on the team above only Howard and Trout. The reality is even worse than the stats. Steve is bricking totally open shots and passing them up with great frequency. Teams are almost daring him to shoot. They are doubling Brandon with abandon, and Steve is unable to make them pay.
Perhaps, Nate's three guard line-up makes sense given Webster's struggles (more on this below), but if so, it seems obvious that Nate is playing the wrong three guards. After some early season struggles, Rudy is shooting well. Why not sit Blake and play Rudy?
4) Nate's misuse or non-use of his young players: At the same time Nate has shown remarkable patience and trust in Blake, he has shown almost no trust in a trio of young players: Webster, Bayless, and Cunningham.
Webster: is a young player coming back from serious injury. Inconsistent play was to be expected. Rather than showing patience, Nate has jerked Webster around; Martell's role and minutes have been extremely inconsistent. This sort of inconsistency can only serve to undermine the confidence of a player who has had some issues with confidence throughout his early career. Fans have made repeated comments about how much Webster has struggled, but the fact remains his TS% is above Blake's and his defensive rating is 6 points better than Blake's. Webster clearly needs to settle down and the team needs him to shoot better, but a little bit of support from Nate might go a long ways in helping Webster relax and find his confidence.
Bayless: I think Nate deserves some credit for finding a good role for Bayless that allowed him to get some real success. Bayless and Rudy are a nice back-court combo with the second unit. They increase tempo, provide energy, score easy baskets, and get to the line. Bayless has shown dramatic improvement in his production. Bayless' PER has soared from last season's anemic 8.2 to an outstanding 19.8, that is right there with Oden and Roy at the top of the team (Cunningham has a higher score on a tiny number of minutes).
The disturbing part is that having found a way to use Bayless productively, Nate is now backing away from what worked. Bayless has had a total of 10 minutes in the last three games. Again, Nate is not living up to his professed policy of players "earning" minutes. Bayless has played well and Nate is demonstrating that he does not trust him and will not reward his success.
Cunningham: Trout is hurt, that is certainly not Nate's fault. But Juwan is clearly running on fumes. Why not give Cunningham a few minutes? He had a good summer league and has been productive in his tiny number of garbage minutes. Bayless and Cunningham have shown some flashes of chemistry. We should take advantage of this opportunity to try to develop a promising young player.
5) Nate's stagnant offensive schemes: Nate repeatedly professes to want to increase tempo to take advantage of the teams athleticism, but his coaching decisions undermine this very goal. Blake seems almost constitutionally incapable of running the break. Time after time he pulls up and allows the opposition to get their defense set. Nate continues to rely on isolation plays and pick and pop schemes even when it is clear that opposing teams know what is coming and have developed schemes to take the ball out of Roy's hands. To my untrained eye, there appears to be little motion, few cutters, and a limited plays to take advantage of Miller's skills. We frequently start the game trying to go into the post and just as frequently abandon those efforts as the game unfolds.
The overall impression is of a team that does not know what it wants to do. They appear dominant for stretched and then quickly go away from the very style of play that has shown success. They lack a consistent identity and are unable to impose their style of play on the opposition for extended periods of time. It isn't pretty, and it isn't consistently successful.
Conclusion
I certainly hope that my doubts prove to be ill founded. I went in to the pre-season expecting the team to win somewhere in the high 50s. Injuries have had a real impact, and that is not Nate's fault, but it is Nate's responsibility to help the team find a response. It is Nate's responsibility to help the team establish a clear identity and develop a clear understanding of how to win. Right now I see confusion and uncertainty. Am I just being a typical fan, with artificially inflated expectations, engaging in the customary hand wringing after a bad loss, or are there real reasons for concern?
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I lost confidence by the playoffs last year
As I just said in another post. He is often seemingly the last to know what he should do.
Slow to the punch, slow to defend.
Land Rondo.
"He needs to realize that he can't stop every shot, especially from a smaller and offensively potent player. Get your hands up, make him shoot it over you, but let him shoot every once in a while. They score a little but you stay in the game a lot. And when you stay in the game...smashy smashy!" Dave on Greg Oden
by loyal_blazer on Nov 21, 2009 11:56 AM PST up reply actions
Thank you
Well balanced and well written. I had some little bells going off in my head. I hope that is OK???
The best players only try to, "do it all," themselves when it is a playoff necessity or, on occasion, to put on a show. There is no need to belabor the point!
nice post
One disagreement, though. You wrote:
it is clear that opposing teams know what is coming and have developed schemes to take the ball out of Roy’s hands.
How much of this is on Roy? If you watch other top two guards (Wade and Kobe), they don’t let other teams take the ball out of their hands when they need to make a play. Roy simply has to figure out how he’s going to get or keep the ball when the other team goes on a run. This is more about determination and knowing when not to defer to teammates than anything Nate is doing.
While i agree about Nate, I am with you on this.
Roy is not Roy yet this year. He is constantly losing his handle. He isnt hitting his automatic layups. He gets stripped. Those magical layups that went 1mm above opposing players block attempts are getting blocked.
Something is up, but I suspect he’ll be fine within the next couple of months.
Land Rondo.
"He needs to realize that he can't stop every shot, especially from a smaller and offensively potent player. Get your hands up, make him shoot it over you, but let him shoot every once in a while. They score a little but you stay in the game a lot. And when you stay in the game...smashy smashy!" Dave on Greg Oden
by loyal_blazer on Nov 21, 2009 11:58 AM PST up reply actions
Roy started
off the season slow and i have a problem with him not refining his jumper yet like kobe and wade have but this is just alarming: “Portland’s Brandon Roy has scored 20 points or fewer in eight of his past 10 games. Even stranger, Roy made 42 trips to the free-throw line in three games played in October and has since made just 46 trips to the line in 10 games played in November.”
It seems roy was beginning to find himself early in the season after starting out slowly but the insertion of miller has had a drastic effect on his play.
he definitely looks off
But I don’t know that it’s about the insertion of Miller. Roy still struggles to assert himself when he’s playing with Blake. Blake played most of the 4th v. Detroit and Miller hardly played v. Golden State. I think what’s happening is a continuation of the Houston series. Teams know his offense, and know their best chance is to keep Roy from getting the ball where he can drive. He has to either work on his handle to avoid traps, or work harder to get the ball in a good position when teams are denying him.
his handle
has definitely been strange this year and he looked hesitant to try and get past monta off the dribble electing to try and post him or shoot the jumper. I’m guessing roy has a lot of work to do this off-season on his game starting with his jumper. This team is also not knocking down open jumpers when he kicks it out like they did last year. They missed a lot of jumpers against golden state.
Monta is very quick and was being very aggressive
He is probably the best type of person to defend Brandon, when he actually works hard at defending, and he did.
Brandon’s great strength is that first quick step that gets past his man and into the lane. Monta is too quick for it to be effective against him. And we have no plays designed to spring Brandon loose, apparently.
We’ve been riding that first step of Brandon’s for two years. Every scout in the league will look at that game and we’ll see Brandon defended by players like CP3 in future, perhaps.
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5
Yeah, distressing to see things like that
I remember when it was a relevation about 5 years ago when the Spurs had Bruce Bowen guard Dirk in the playoffs which shut him down because he couldn’t use his typical advantages over the bigger defenders that typically played him.
Roy is going to have to start putting together a post game or develop a way to better use his strength against guys like Monta. His ability to use a pick compared to the rest of his game is pretty shocking as well. He may be an A+ at taking guys off the dribble in general, but he’s a C- at best at playing with a pick.
It seems like we had the benefit of sneaking up on some teams last year, but everybody’s spent their summer scouting us and figuring out how to take away our bread and butter. We’ll have to adapt to survive.
Well, don't give GS too much credit
I don’t think it was their scouting, I think it was desperation. They went with the guys they did not because they were smart, but because that was all that was left in the cupboard. The fact that it worked may have been a revelation for them, too.
You’re right about Brandon playing with a pick.
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5
Nelson being the broken clock, I guess?
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5
when Roy gets trapped, he dribbles back and away (towards the sideline and half court)
which is exactly what the defense wants. he need to either aggressively split the double team before they second guy fully gets there, OR make a quick pass to an open man coming to get the ball at the top of the key (not the sideline, where Blake is). Instead, he has been painting himself up agaisnt the left sidline, giving the defense a HUGE advantage, and by moving away towards the halfcourt stripe, he removes an threat of himself or others being able to beat the advatage through a quick pass and attack.
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
by douglast on Nov 21, 2009 2:12 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
That is exactly right
I saw so much of that against the Warriors it made me sick. It isn’t just Roy, either.
An aggressive defense makes all of our guys passive offensively, we go BACKWARDS! What?
If they are coming towards you, and you go towards the basket, they are moving in the wrong direction, and you can leave him headed towards mid-court and unable to go with you.
Anyone notice the difference between passes in the second half of the last two games? Against Golden State, under pressure, we make a pass backwards to someone, who holds it for a couple seconds, or dribbles, then makes another pass. No one was actually moving towards the basket, and we weren’t moving the ball quickly.
Against Minnesota, we had a LOT of passes which were zipped to the open man, who would zip it to another open man, three or four quick passes in a row and someone gets a nice wide open shot, or the ball in great position.
Somehow, the results of those two games were different.
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5
Brandon's playing the wrong position
The Batum injury was much more important than anyone is willing to admit, because looking at Nic’s stats you’d think he was a small part of the starting lineup. Yet, without Batum, Roy is guarding SFs, and he’s not physically equipped to deal with them on an extended basis. That energy drain is affecting his offense. Last year, on offense, Nic would keep the ball moving and help spread the floor, which is the role Blake is playing, now. Who would’ve predicted that Steve would shoot a poorer % from behind the 3 point line than #88, after 14 games?
There are only two alternatives: replace Blake in the starting lineup with Webster and hope that Martell can contribute “something” closer to what Batum was doing, or pursue a deal to shore up the forward position. Brandon isn’t likely to “get better” as the season progresses if he’s left in his current role, and this team is going nowhere with a less than 100% Roy
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Nov 21, 2009 12:51 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
I totally agree with you! Brandon is an All-Star 2 Guard NOT a Small Forward!
Stop playing the 3 Guard Line up and Stop Using the 2 Foul Rule – NATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Blazer's Edge Ambassador to The Dream Shake Blog
LMA Rocks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I <3 LMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
LMA - Putting the POWER in POWER FORWARD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The concussion must have jarred him into "Destroy All Opposition Terminator Mode!" - BlazersOrBust
Stop playing the 3 Guard Line up and Stop Using the 2 Foul Rule – NATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Batum injury was huge.
This may just be an unlucky season. It has that sort of feel. Who on the team is playing as well as last year?
Oden is much better, but…
ignacio
Rec
Exactly how i feel also. I mean seriously…..Give me Webster for 30 awful minutes over blake atleat Web would free up Roy to go back to the 2 spot. Even if Nate is set on keeping Roy at the 3 then gimme Rudy first, Bayless Second, Nate himself 3rd, and Blake a far off in the distance fourth. Its getting ridiculous.
by blazerbeliever97504 on Nov 21, 2009 11:55 AM PST reply actions
Further more....
Miller, Rudy, Roy……makes some sense
Miller, Bayless, Roy…….makes some sense
Miller, Roy, Webster…….makes some sense
Miller, Blake, Roy…….i dont see the sense when you have three much better options listed above.
Sorry im ranting, ill shut u p now
by blazerbeliever97504 on Nov 21, 2009 11:58 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Actually, Jerryd Bayless, Brandon Roy, and Andre Miller makes the least sense.
Dear Paul Allen:
Fire Nate McMillan & hire Jeff Van Gundy.
Sincerely,
AK1984
Very well written
I have been one of the most staunch Mcmillan supporters, but this year I almost feel like he is in over his head. I agree about Blake……..like the guy and all, but he needs to sit until he can get his head back on straight
Can we add this to the list?
*Nates stubborn overuse of Travis Outlaw" I mean, why was he deserving of so much of Nate’s time while other guys like Miller have to scratch and claw for them?
I have questioned giving this guy so much time from the get-go. With so many negatives to go with his one asset and Nate continued to give him more and more minutes. I’m sorry but his butt would have been on the bench a whole hell of a lot while my other players who were willing to hustle and play within the team learned on the court.
Land Rondo.
"He needs to realize that he can't stop every shot, especially from a smaller and offensively potent player. Get your hands up, make him shoot it over you, but let him shoot every once in a while. They score a little but you stay in the game a lot. And when you stay in the game...smashy smashy!" Dave on Greg Oden
Does anyone
really see a future for Bayless in the NBA?
Definitely in the NBA, potentially even on the Blazers
He could be the default backup next season, though that of course depends on what KP/Nate do with Blake (and to some extent Miller, though I don’t believe in rumors that he was acquired just for trading purposes).
Ceterum censeo Lakers esse delendam
if he's a backup next season, it has to be at the 2.
the guy is not a point guard. counting on him for 20 minutes a game running the point would be a bad idea.
I’ve long said on this site that eventually we only have room for either Rudy or Bayless. I still say that’s true.
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
There are a lot of non-pure point guards in the NBA. The latest to take the reigns on his team is Lou Williams after Andre left there. I would have guessed he’ll lead the league in turnovers since he is an almost-classic combo guard, but it works quite well. Curry and Ellis for the Warriors. Harris for New Jersey. Arenas for the Wizards. Parker for the Spurs. Also quite a number of them with a mediocre outside shot.
As long as Bayless can handle the ball securely and defend PGs, he’ll be completely fine next to Roy or Rudy who can both pass well themselves.
Ceterum censeo Lakers esse delendam
by Norsktroll on Nov 21, 2009 3:09 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
key word: next to Roy or Rudy
I think that’s the way to use Bayless effectively. I really hope Rudy’s PG skills will improve soon enough to share backup PG duty and allow Bayless to get playing time.
I say the best shot for Jerryd Bayless to do well is as a backup for Brandon Roy, as the ...
heavy use of isos and high usage rate are two ways they’re similar to each other. Bayless, therefore, is best paired with Rudy Fernandez. Bayless would be the 2 on offense and 1 on defense, while Fernandez would be the 1 on the offense and the 2 on defense. While there are some major problems with that duo — such as Fernandez’s weak handles and Bayless’ overaggressive perimeter defense — it can work for 8 to 12 minutes per game.
Dear Paul Allen:
Fire Nate McMillan & hire Jeff Van Gundy.
Sincerely,
AK1984
Hey AK
Just curious if you are willing to give Bayless any credit for improved Assist % and reduced turnovers. I know we have very different opinions, but am just curious how you account for the improvement in your “he will never be a PG” proclamations. Seems to me that while he has a long way to go, he is showing some signs of improvement. There are effective scoring PGs in the League.
I do agree with you that Rudy seems like a decent compliment to Bayless and helps cover for his current limitations.
by upper left corner on Nov 23, 2009 8:56 AM PST up reply actions
Here's what I don't get
If Bayless can be the 2 on offense and 1 on defense next to Rudy, why can’t he be that next to Roy? All he needs is to regain his jumpshot.
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5
What gives?
the guy is not a point guard.
Repeating this mantra endlessly does not make it so. Bayless has a higher Assist % than Blake. He is averaging as many assists per 36 minutes as Blake. Bayless has a long way to go, but how do you justify saying that a 21 year old with those kinds of physical abilities and work ethic can’t be a point.
by upper left corner on Nov 22, 2009 11:45 AM PST up reply actions
I'd say he's similar to Stuckey or AI
More of a guy that finishes at the hoop or shoots deep. Monta has more of a mid-range game.
Still, he can get to the rim and finish, (and draw fouls) and that’s an important commodity for an NBA player. He’s a legit NBA guy, just not a PG.
At this point, Louis Williams is the best comparison for Jerryd Bayless.
Dear Paul Allen:
Fire Nate McMillan & hire Jeff Van Gundy.
Sincerely,
AK1984
Seriously?
With all the questions about the Blazers this year, Bayless is not one of them. His PER (albeit in very limited time) has been over 20 for most of the year. The question is whether Bayless should become a permanent part of the rotation, not whether he has a real future in the NBA. The first question, reasonable minds can disagree about. But it’s preposterous to question whether the kid with blazing speed, a great work ethic, and a 42 inch vertical has a “future in the NBA.”
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
by KP Corleone on Nov 21, 2009 1:27 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
yes
as an off the bench sparkplug combo guard. he’s not a point guard, at least not a full time one. I say start Miller and Webster, and let Blake run the point in a 3-guard 2nd unit, with Bayless and Rudy at the wings. Add Dante and Joel up front and see what they can do for 6-10 minutes per night
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
by douglast on Nov 21, 2009 2:14 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Yes and should be playing 25+
We lack scoring, creativity, athleticism, and passion. He brings all and more. If he were on Indiana, where he was originally drafted, he would be 15,5,5 +. He is a player and you can’t teach what he has. He can score with anyone and his shot will come with consistent minutes. Injuries have presented Bayless with a chance. He has seized the opportunities he has been given, but the rest lies with the coach. His ankle injury didn’t help, but more Bayless is a must.
by NDREXLERDRIVE on Nov 21, 2009 3:38 PM PST up reply actions
I'll be the nayser on this one.
To me, Bayless’ only discernable talent is bull-rushing the rim, getting fouled, and usually making the hoop. Other than that, he’s not better at any one thing than our other guards.
But I love you :-(
by Mortimer on Nov 19, 2009 7:04 PM PST
Also,
“Nate is now backing away from what worked”
Nate seems to be doing a lot of this the last 2 years. What gives?
Land Rondo.
"He needs to realize that he can't stop every shot, especially from a smaller and offensively potent player. Get your hands up, make him shoot it over you, but let him shoot every once in a while. They score a little but you stay in the game a lot. And when you stay in the game...smashy smashy!" Dave on Greg Oden
Heres another one to add:
*Nate allows excessive jumpshots when losing lead while opponents attack the rim play after play."
This has not been a recipe for success. We lost to the Hawks twice like this. We lost to the Warriors last night like this. Has he not seen the game 7 of the 2001 WCF’s? Since when has htis been a winning strategy? Put some freaking pressure on the refs on our side for crying out loud!
His jumper oriented offense he brought from Seattle does not win championships. The refs swallow the whistle and there is not enough pressure for the refs to start using them.
Land Rondo.
"He needs to realize that he can't stop every shot, especially from a smaller and offensively potent player. Get your hands up, make him shoot it over you, but let him shoot every once in a while. They score a little but you stay in the game a lot. And when you stay in the game...smashy smashy!" Dave on Greg Oden
Nice post. Even handed and totally accurate I think. Here's another...my biggest worry with Nate...and I think it's a doozy.
The pick n’ roll is arguably the single most important play in the NBA. How well you execute it, and how well you defend it can decide a game, playoff series, or even a championship ( see Nash / Amare / Marion / Bell / Diaw era suns, who always looked like the best team in the NBA until the Spurs predictably took advantage of their laughable pick n’ roll defense every year they met in the playoffs ). The importance of the pick n’ roll should not be underestimated.
Is Portland a good pick n’ roll team? Uhh, no. Not even close. We routinely switch on defense, putting our centers on an island with a PG driving ( I think this one problem is seriously hampering Greg’s development. ) ,and do not run the pick n’ roll on offense very much.
We are great at the pick n’ pop. That we are good at. But that doesn’t get us to the rack, and it doesn’t put as much pressure on the defense. Nate really needs to take a longer look at how we run the pick n’ roll.
I don't even think we are very good at the pick and pop
The problem is that the Blazer’s pick-and-pop plays generate 20’ jump shots instead of more efficient 3-point shots or shots closer to the basket. We are able to generate those shots pretty consistently, but it seems like the main reason why we are able to get those shots is because they are inefficient and the other team is content to let us take them. If we could generate more efficient shots off of the pick-and-pop (like 3-point shots), other teams would be forced to defend it differently and it would improve the effectiveness of our pick-and-roll plays.
Great observation
The other team is basically giving us the crappiest shot on the floor and Nate is saying, “OK, well take it!”
There lies the questioning of Nate. Always seems to be on the short end of the strategy.
Land Rondo.
"He needs to realize that he can't stop every shot, especially from a smaller and offensively potent player. Get your hands up, make him shoot it over you, but let him shoot every once in a while. They score a little but you stay in the game a lot. And when you stay in the game...smashy smashy!" Dave on Greg Oden
by loyal_blazer on Nov 21, 2009 4:19 PM PST up reply actions
Extremely well done, upper left corner!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! rec
The only thing that I would have added is some analysis with regards to Nate 2 Foul Stage-Hook Act.
But don’t worry about that because I am here to Help!
Stop playing the 3 Guard Line up and Stop Using the 2 Foul Rule – NATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Blazer's Edge Ambassador to The Dream Shake Blog
LMA Rocks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I <3 LMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
LMA - Putting the POWER in POWER FORWARD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The concussion must have jarred him into "Destroy All Opposition Terminator Mode!" - BlazersOrBust
Stop playing the 3 Guard Line up and Stop Using the 2 Foul Rule – NATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I'm not quite where you are (yet)
but a nice post.
I’ll say this. I do not understand lots of things Nate is doing, and you’ve covered some of them.
I know he knows his job far better than I do. But lots of things don’t make any sense to me. Maybe he’s right, maybe he’s wrong.
When I don’t understand something, I don’t want to be too critical until I understand the thought processes. But eventually, you reach the point of saying that the thought processes are flawed.
When Mikki Moore went out with three fouls in no time, that should have been a signal to run it in to the post, either Greg or LMA, on every single play.
But even then, we aren’t getting EASY shots for Greg and LMA. The pick and roll is a non-entity on this team. I thought Andre was supposed to be a great at the pick and roll. Where is it? We can pick and pop, but pick and roll is never there. Are we saving it for the playoffs to surprise people or something?
I don’t understand a lot of things. And I know I’m not close to the basketball mind that Nate is, but I’m not stupid, either. Something weird is going on here.
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5
I'm tempted to agree with you (and ulc).
There is something weird going on, all right. But what is it? And what does it mean?
We Edgers are at a disadvantage right now. It feels like there is insufficient information at hand, and a dearth of reasonable theoretical frameworks with which to explain things.
Like many or perhaps most of us, I’m just trying to stay upbeat and focused until, eventually, Dave tells us how to think.
We implore you, O Dave: provide for us a revised and more potent paradigm!
As a guy with degrees in Sociology and Economcs I found this hysterical....
…..but then there is no accounting for Sociologist humor.
by upper left corner on Nov 23, 2009 9:32 AM PST up reply actions
for one, how often does ANDRE actually get to run a pick and roll with anyone?
almost never it seems to me.
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
yes. P&R is another mystery
I’ve long been supportive to Nate as well and thought our lack of effective P&R is due more to the personnel, not coaching.
At first we didn’t have big guy who can take the ball to the rim, LMA is always soft in this area and seems to have dribble-phobia sympton. After we have Oden, we didn’t have a guard who can (or dare to) consistently pass to the rolling big guy. OK I accept that because Blake and Roy are really conservative passers.
But now we have Miller. I think we’re supposed to finally see some successful P&R plays. At least once every other game is not a very difficult demand, is it? Unfortunately the way Miller runs P&R are EXACTLY the same as how Roy & Blake do it – always hesitate to turn the corner, hesitate to pass inside, hesitate to take outside shot. Naturally the result is him being trapped by two defenders and passing out the ball.
The only guy I left out – Rudy – is the only one on the team who knows how to do it. But he is not trusted by coach enough to do it more often
As for Miller… I really don’t know.
Nate is in a tough spot...
He started out with one of the deepest rosters in the league, and now he doesn’t have a small forward on the active roster who played more than 5 minutes of NBA basketball last season. From deep to shallow in 10 games or less.
That being said, most of your criticisms are valid. Clearly, Nate is getting outcoached. With Trout on the sidelines, he’s got to take more risks with foul trouble, and he’s got to work Bayless into the rotation. Blake and Przy go from assets to major liabilities in a very big way when they’re playing extended minutes next to Howard or Webster instead of Brandon and Lamarcus. They are good solid players when playing next to other guys who are elite level scorers. They are well below average when they’re playing next to other below average players. Nate has to realize that.
I think Nate hasn’t showed nearly enough patience with Martell. You have to let the kid get his sea legs back. He’s still a reasonably athletic 6’7" dude who is willing to commit on D and bring energy. And he’s the only decent sized perimeter defender on the team. HE HAS TO PLAY. And he has to start, and he has to play big minutes. What’s the worst that can happen – the team gets blown out by an underrmanned Warrior squad? Oh, wait….
Also, Bayless has to play. It’s clear that the Blake/Miller combo isn’t going to get this team over the hump. You have to work Bayless into the rotation and play him consistent minutes. Brandon and Lamarcus need his consistent energy and emotion, because (I’ll say it) those guys seem to be struggling to get motivated after getting paid. (That doesn’t make them bad people – it’s just human nature.)
Also, the biggest mistake of the offseason is biting and will continue to bite the Blazers in the butt – the Blazers only have three rotation quality bigs. Travis was big enough and scored enough to mask that deficiency when he played back up four. But without Travis, the team is STRUGGLING and will continue to do so when Greg or Lamarcus are in any kind of foul trouble. Howard belongs in a suit and tie. Nate has to, has to, has to give DC a shot to see if he can give the Blazers some adequate minutes at the four. Playing Juwon Howard is like hiring Barkley to step out from behind TNT’s desk and suit back up. He’s not an NBA player any more.
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
by KP Corleone on Nov 21, 2009 1:42 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
At the moment, we are the easiest team to prepare for, and to defend
Brandon is an All-Star 2 Guard NOT a Small Forward! Stop playing the 3 Guard Line up! Stop Using the 2 Foul Rule!
It's Brandon Roy's world and we're only renting space We don’t like him—we’re only on his side so he doesn’t dunk on us in front of our co-workers, wives, girlfriends, mistresses and children.
-Correction It’s B Rex’s world and Brandon’s just keeping it warm until The Coming
by OhOhOden
by SandyTrailBlazer on Nov 21, 2009 1:53 PM PST reply actions
I am glad that you agree!
Thank you for honoring me with your blockquote. :)
Blazer's Edge Ambassador to The Dream Shake Blog
LMA Rocks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I <3 LMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
LMA - Putting the POWER in POWER FORWARD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The concussion must have jarred him into "Destroy All Opposition Terminator Mode!" - BlazersOrBust
Stop playing the 3 Guard Line up and Stop Using the 2 Foul Rule – NATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
There is so much to talk about when addressing the game plan drawn up by the Blazers organisation that I don't know where to start.
In this particular game Roy, while playing with little effort or enthusiasm, hurt himself. His reluctance to play off screens and cuts killed him against the laterally quick Monta Ellis. I distinctly remember the cuts into the post provided him with easy baskets or free-throws.
Brandon needs to adapt, superstars are superstars not because they can play one way well but because they can adapt and still succeed. Brandon is failing this continually.
#88 > #23 > #25
Updated for latest line-up:
#5 > #2
That's exactly what I've been saying since the Dre trade...
Brandon needs to adapt, superstars are superstars not because they can play one way well but because they can adapt and still succeed. Brandon is failing this continually.
Good well reasoned post
The poor quality of our play of late has been masked by the poor quality of opposition in many cases. Hopefully, we’ve bottomed out and things will swing upward. At a minimum Nate will have to revisit his rotations.
First,
Very well written article, and I will rec you for that. I, for one, think it is way to early to start criticizing the coach for the teams less than stellar performance. Right now, the Hawks are leading the NBA right now…. not just the East, but the entire league… Do I need to say more? Ok, I will anyways… Phoenix is leading the West….. The season just started, give it time. Nates entire game plan for the season had to have been thrown out the window… twice! First, the starting small forward, or I guess who I assumed would be the starting small forward (Batum), goes out for a while, and now the blazers top scorer off the bench is out for while. The Blazers are short handed, and Nate is keeping this team going. I think that I would actually argue that Nate is doing a fine job considering the circumstances.
Secondly, I HATE THE THREE GUARD LINEUP!!!!! I dont care which point guard they throw out of the starting line up, Blake or Miller, doesn’t matter, just get a real small forward in the game! Webster needs to get his sh!t together and step up his game. He is missing a golden opportunity to steal the starting small forward role, and it is frustrating the hell out of me.
Bayles… I have mixed feelings about him. I personally believe that steve Blake is better(normally), and the Blazers are already playing a guard heavy game, so Bayless is just sh!t out of luck. However…. I am pretty sure that he is going to be a great player in this league…. He just needs to foul less, turn the ball over less, and learn when he should be shooting and when he should be passing…
I do understand Nate not playing DC. He does not like rookies unless they are defensive oriented, because offense from rookies is inconsistent.
I think that the disapproval of Nate from everyone on this website is just a bit premature. If the Blazers are below .500 by All star break, then we got problems. It is a rough start of the season, but it will get better. Everyone just needs to be patient.
"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"
"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski
a couple of local fans have been down on Nate from
Day one and I have been defending him for years,I have finally had to throw in the towel and “you were right,I was wrong”because there is nothing positve I can find to say about any aspect of his performance this year.One of them made the point that Nate’s personal relationship with Blake and something traumatic that happened to him during his NBA career is having a very negative impact on the team and I had to agree.
by southern oregon on Nov 21, 2009 3:22 PM PST reply actions
Nice post
Nate has always been weird when distributing minutes. I think one thing is clear; we are not as deep as we think. Us starting two point guards like you mention is proof that we lack depth. Our two Deep is pretty suspect thanks to the injuries. Here is what the three guard line up looks like with backups
PG-Miller, Blake,Bayless
SG-Blake, Fernandez, Roy
SF- Roy, Webster, Fernandez
PF-LA, Howard, Dante
C- Oden, Pryzbilla, LA
My additional thoughts on Players:
(I agree with your assessment, but would like to bring up some others)
Roy: Whether it be the unfamiliarity of Miller or the defense keying on Roy, one thing is clear. He is not excited and lacks the fire out on the court. I think the teams lack of energy and fire all stems from Roy’s struggles. He is the leader and sets the example in which others follow. I see him complaining too much and when he comes back to the huddles he looks disgusted. Roy needs to step up, but needs a consistent team around him to do so. The onus is not all on Roy, others need to step up. Such as:
LA: I can deal with a 7 footer shooting the outside shot and LA is one of the best in that regard. He is no DIrk, but one of the better big men in the league. He has shown more of an inside presence when looking at the offensive side of the ball, but not on defense. His averages are whack. I have said it from the start that he should of proved himself to get the contract. Putting up 15, 8 and .5 blocks is not worth someone making 70+ million a year. LA is a legit Power Forward. He has the athletic ability to do so much. We played golden state who had Randolph, D-leaguer, and Moore and he did nothing. He was consistently beaten to balls by small forwards. He had 12 points and 6 boards with one being offensive.Morrow had 6 with two being offensive and he is 6’5’’, but he did play 48 minutes mind you. Lets look at the rebounding leaders.
Joakim Noah , CHI – 12.6
Chris Bosh , TOR – 12.2
Gerald Wallace , CHA – 11.4
Zach Randolph , MEM 10.2
Al Horford , ATL 10.0
Jason Thompson , SAC 9.8
Luis Scola , HOU 9.8
Luol Deng , CHI 9.0
This is not the complete list, just players that I think LA matches up against, or is taller than that are outperforming him. No way should Scola, Randolph, Deng, Wallace and others out rebound LA. All I see is a man that lacks the fire. I can only hear the argument that he plays next to Oden and Pryz so many times. He needs to be more aggressive. But enough harping on LA…
Bayless- Yet another young player underdeveloped by the Blazers. I think it is safe to say that he is not a true point guard, but i think with consistent minutes he’ll still be a Devin Harris and I like the thought of that. Our second unit is not a strength and lacks creativity. No one attacks and no one can consistently score. He can and will. Sure he’ll make some ill-advised plays, but as of right now our whole team does. There are plenty of success stories of players that have similar games. We need scoring and passion and Bayless brings both. Coach and management need to put him in not only for the present, but for the future.
Blazers in general- Lack fire, a word that I keep bringing up. I watched last nights game as well as the denver game. Both teams ended up loosing to underachieving and “lesser” teams, yet one fought to the end. My least favorite team is Denver. Their confidence/cockiness is what I hate, but in the end it will get them to the WCF. They don’t want to be embarrassed like they were about to be last night. They showed a will to fight and get back into the game, which they did and tied, only to lose. We rolled over and died. Sure it was garbage minutes, but the only time I saw some bite was the last couple of minutes with Dante, Rudy, and Bayless playing. We consistently lose when looking at an uncharitable statistic, heart. Maybe that is why Roy walks back to the huddle in disgust, no one on his team wants it.
I believe in the team and will be there through the thick and thin. In the beginning of the season I said we were going to win around 48 games. I think we will get there, but without growing pains and those pains just might keep us out of the playoffs. Coach and players need to find it and I think it, fire, starts with the coach and it’s star players, not the guard receiving garbage time.
You lost me with this one.
Us starting two point guards like you mention is proof that we lack depth.
Nate is not starting 3 guards due to lack of depth. It is because of lack of common sense.
Blazer's Edge Ambassador to The Dream Shake Blog
LMA Rocks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I <3 LMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
LMA - Putting the POWER in POWER FORWARD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The concussion must have jarred him into "Destroy All Opposition Terminator Mode!" - BlazersOrBust
Stop playing the 3 Guard Line up and Stop Using the 2 Foul Rule – NATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Oops - that was supposed to be a reply to NDREXLERDRIVE - my bad
Blazer's Edge Ambassador to The Dream Shake Blog
LMA Rocks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I <3 LMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
LMA - Putting the POWER in POWER FORWARD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The concussion must have jarred him into "Destroy All Opposition Terminator Mode!" - BlazersOrBust
Stop playing the 3 Guard Line up and Stop Using the 2 Foul Rule – NATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Common Sense wouldn't be proud of this one
LMA – Putting the POWER in POWER FORWARD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by NDREXLERDRIVE on Nov 21, 2009 3:42 PM PST up reply actions
I know that LMA has shown that he is not the super aggressive low post banger that we wish he was....
but he is still the Blazers #2 scoring weapon and as such deserves some respect.
Lets face it, he is by far the least of this teams problems right now.
Blazer's Edge Ambassador to The Dream Shake Blog
LMA Rocks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I <3 LMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
LMA - Putting the POWER in POWER FORWARD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The concussion must have jarred him into "Destroy All Opposition Terminator Mode!" - BlazersOrBust
Stop playing the 3 Guard Line up and Stop Using the 2 Foul Rule – NATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Excellent post
I still think Nate is a good fit in Portland, and I think he will correct the problems, but I’m having some doubts. He is in a tough spot, because he’s down to one SF (Martell) who is playing poorly right now. Still, the way he’s handling Blake, Oden, Bayless, etc. are all open to question.
"man, steve blake is clutch *dead*" - Ben Golliver on Twitter
my thoughts exactly
"I'd like to see Nate McMillan stop treating fouls like they are rollover minutes." - Blazer Guy 11/4/09
I am glad that people are finally talking about this.
I have been questioning Nate since I realised he played Travis way too much. Who would do that? So in a sense, TO was not the weakest link.
The radio guys are all working for the team directly or indirectly. They are not going to allow anyone to say anything about Nate, especially when someone as high as KP wont even step on Nate’s toes. It’s Nates demeaner about the situation that have people not questioning him. NEWS FLASH McMillan, the only people who deserve the benefit are people who have won it. Who have proven that they have figured it out, at least once. Even a higher level up from that, we might criticize a coach for winning only 1 championship when he could have gotten 3. Nate is at neither of those levels.
Land Rondo.
"He needs to realize that he can't stop every shot, especially from a smaller and offensively potent player. Get your hands up, make him shoot it over you, but let him shoot every once in a while. They score a little but you stay in the game a lot. And when you stay in the game...smashy smashy!" Dave on Greg Oden
Well, ULC, I just came here to give you props for a top-notch fan post.
Dear Paul Allen:
Fire Nate McMillan & hire Jeff Van Gundy.
Sincerely,
AK1984
April this year...
(Jeff) Van Gundy’s style is very direct. He’ll mix in humor with pointed commentary but he’s also loyal to the coaching fraternity because “I know how difficult the job is. My only comments about coaches have been positive.”
He’s also not ruling out a return to the sidelines one day.
“I (do) miss certain aspects of coaching,” he says. “I call it the three C’s: competition, camaraderie and charter planes.”
just thinkin…
"Travis went all wang-dang diddly wubba SPROING wow-wow on everybody " Dave's recap, season opener
Wow, thanks.
You and I both giving each other some credit. Next thing you know, the sun will be rising in the west!
Glad you enjoyed it.
by upper left corner on Nov 23, 2009 9:37 AM PST up reply actions
note to self: Tom hates old guys AND young guys
=)
But I love you :-(
by Mortimer on Nov 19, 2009 7:04 PM PST
The ideas in this little essay are valid, but you ruined it by relying upon the garbage pseudo-stat of PER.
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
Just curious....
What do you think is a better way to compare players?
I realize PER has lots of limitations, but I also think it is very useful especially in comparing guys year to year and comparing guys who play the same position. It is less useful comparing across positions.
by upper left corner on Nov 23, 2009 9:41 AM PST up reply actions
Another reasonable critique supporting a lack of confidence in Nate,
I share your doubt, for me it started this season when the team was so far from the high we were on going into the playoffs, playing strong ball. It has only grown deeper with continuing similar postings and statments… “I always supported Nate in the past, but now…”. I was feeling the same, and the chorus of agreement from a number of thoughtful, reasonable fans really intensifies my conviction that Nate probably has run his course with the Blazers. And I hate to be critical of a guy who has done good things for the team, and is a decent, hard working coach. He has earned the chance to “turn it around”, which could well emcompass the rest of the season. But if we start seriously loosing as our schedule toughens up, who knows. And it might not even be fair to expect the same team as last year without Nic and Travis (and Sergio? – court jester, and oh yeah, Frye wasn’t really that bad) , but we do tend to expect at least as good.
I am reminded ot the balance (scale) you somtimes see as a symbol of justice, with the two balance pans hanging on a balance beam. One side has all the good things Nate has done, and good games under him, the other side, the mysterious, questionable things, and poor games. The scale tipped to the bad side a while back for me. Its going to take some real success, including effective execution, good wins, and team morale to tip it back. I have said it before, it is frustrating to feel the management (coaching) is not effectively using the talent, that we should be better.
I enjoy reading about the Civil War. The generals are a fascinating topic, the stategy, the calculated risks, the making the most of your resources (or not). Coaching has some parallels, though with far less costly consequences (the casualities in even one of those battles could be staggering). I am ready for a change in command. But then the problem, as Lincoln found out, the replacement may not be an improvement.
So it is pretty easy to criticize, but we also got to find a real improvement to make a change that works. Another reason it wont happen quickly.
"Travis went all wang-dang diddly wubba SPROING wow-wow on everybody " Dave's recap, season opener
I'm not so sure why everyone assumed Nate was great in the first place
I’ll just attribute it to Portland’s aggravating habit of overrating anyone that associates themselves with the Trailblazers
Blazer Fan
I can only imagine what this roster could achieve with a Phil, a SVG, an Adelman, hell even a George Karl
I realize all those guys are busy. Just sayin. The possibilities blow my mind.
Blazer Fan
George Karl???
You jumped the shark with that one, Leeroy. :)
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5
Nate would be a good college coach
His micromanaging rigid ways are good for very young players … but our players are older than their years. My big problem with Nate has long been that I think he may be a control freak. Not since Dunleavy have I seen a coach who has such a mechanical substitution pattern. He ices his own players far too often, especially Greg. His biggest strength is that he will eventually make tweaks that help (in a few weeks or months), but he has a very slow response in this regard. A slow response to on-the-ground circumstances is deadly in the postseason. Its the whole human part of management that he seems a little inexperienced at, and behind other top coaches. Remember last year when Brandon had to intervene and say the players were being driven to hard and were fading? We had to get to a bona-fide slump for Brandon to feel all right communicating this message. Not good.
by Sound_Automatic on Nov 23, 2009 10:44 AM PST reply actions
Why is it always the coach?
Everybody takes it for granted that the Blazer rotation is deep and talented. It’s as if they think that not playing this guy enough, not developing so-and-so, not going with a different system, etc, are the only things holding the Blazers back from an inevitable championship.
What if these guys just aren’t that good? They’re a fairly good defensive team, but they’re a jumpshooting team. Changing the coach won’t really change these players’ tendencies. LMA isn’t going to suddenly stop settling for long jumpers, e.g. It’s good to have a group like this to support, but they’re really on the upper end of the second tier in this league.
Keep your expectations low and you won't be disappointed.
The jumpshooting is not divinely ordained
It is a result of the offensive schemes mixing with the personnel.
Portland has three guys who can effectively score in the post: Oden, LMA, and Miller.
We have three guys who are excellent penetrators Roy, Bayless, Miller.
We have several guys who are great in transition Miller, Bayless, Batum, Webster, and LMA.
The team compiled the fifth best record with the youngest team in the league. The talent is here. The guys just need to learn how to win.
by upper left corner on Nov 24, 2009 9:17 AM PST up reply actions
z
A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.
http://www.gop.com/
Roybot.
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