The Sched Ahead -- 11/02/09 Week Two, Primoris Annus Blazerium Dominatium

SUMMARY INFO

Four categories of games (now with additional names for the non-numerically inclined):

1. Home games against sub .500 teams.  Cream Puff Home.
2. Home games against winning teams (I'm including teams right at .500 in this category).  Jawbreaker Home.
3. Road games at losing teams.  Banana Peel Road.
4. Road games at winning teams.  Rocky Road.

A general formula for success in the NBA is to win almost all of Cat 1 (Cream Puff Home), a majority of Cat 2 (Jawbreaker Home) and Cat 3 (Banana Peel Road), and win some in Cat 4 (Rocky Road).  The contenders may win more than half of their Cat 4 games.

Back to Backs (hereafter BtoB) are also tracked so as to provide further data on schedule difficulty.

I had always viewed games using these categories, but this fan post convinced me that others might be interested, and thus the sched ahead posts began, with all results generated by an Excel spreadsheet (laziness FTW).  Due to complaints from the numerically challenged, I added food names to the basic Cat 1-4 designation.

Preseason overview

As a bonus, I have used the "jscot stupid sched projections" (c).  These stupidly assume that a team will continue to win each category of games at the same rate they have won them to date.  These are deferred until we get further into the season.

I am still using last season's win-loss records to determine whether teams are a winning opponent or a losing opponent.  This will probably hold for another week or two before I start to use this year's record.  

COMMENTS ON THE WEEK

Portland (2-2) lost a Rocky Road (Cat 4) game, won a Cat 3 Banana Peel road game, and split 2 Jawbreaker home games (Cat 2).  Not a very good week, but not horrible.  I said last week that 3-1 would be a solid week, and that every one of those games could be lost if we didn't bring our game.  Since we didn't really have a quality performance in any of the games, it's hard to complain about two wins out of the four.

Dallas (2-1) opened with an alleged Cream Puff loss to Washington at home, then got a nice Rocky Road win at LA and followed with a Banana Peel win at the other LA.  Lessons -- Dallas appears to be as dangerous as a lot of people thought, so also Washington, and the hype machine on the Clips (0-4) looks dead already.

Denver (3-0) won a Jawbreaker Home (Cat 2) against Utah, stole a Cat 4 in Portland, and won a Cream Puff at home against Memphis.   

Houston (2-1) lost a Rocky Road in Portland, won a Cat 3 Banana Peel at Golden State, and won a Jawbreaker home game (Cat 2) against Portland.  No one should write these guys off yet. 

L.A. (2-1) won a home Cream Puff game (Cat 1) and split two Cat 2 Jawbreaker home games. 

N.O. (1-2) did no better than expected, winning a home Cream Puff and losing two Rocky Road Cat 4 games (Spurs and Boston).   

Phoenix (3-0).  These guys aren't ready to ride off into the Suns(et) just yet.  Channing is on fire.  On the other hand, the schedule wasn't brutal, winning a Cat 3 Banana Peel at the Clips and two home Cream Puffs against Golden State and Minnesota.  Not tested yet.

The Spurs (2-1) won at home and lost on the road, winning a Cat 1 against Sacramento and a Cat 2 against N.O., and losing a Rocky Road Cat 4 at Chicago.   

Utah (1-1) lost a Cat 4 Rocky Road at Denver, then won a Cream Puff at home against the Clips. 

Helped themselves:  Denver, Houston, Phoenix.

Neutral, neither better nor worse than could be expected: Dallas, N.O., S.A., Utah. 

Hurt themselves, lost games they could have been expected to win:  Portland, L.A..

The tables:

Cat 4 -- Rocky Road

Eight games played in this category.  Only Dallas and Denver got wins, about par for the course.  Houston was a chance for us to get a rare win in this category, but there will be other chances. 

Last year we were 5-17 in this category.  It is success on the road against good teams that is needed to take the next step up.

Cat 3 -- Banana Peel Road 

Four games, four wins.  Nobody dropped a road game against weak opposition this week.  Last year we were 15-4 in these games (three of those losses were when Blake was out).  Taking care of business on the road against weak teams is the mark of a strong team.

Cat 2 -- Jawbreaker Home

Portland and L.A. lost home games against winning teams this week, both to Western Conference rivals.  At least we were competitive in ours.

Cat 1 -- Cream Puff Home

One loss, Dallas going down to Washington.  In all probability, that is going to be flipped to a Cat 2 loss as the Wiz are likely to establish themselves as a winning team.  Phoenix will like their start, but they have already played 10% of their easiest games.

All Home Games

Portland, Dallas, and L.A. all dropped a home game.  L.A. has played more than anyone, with 3, and didn't go on the road in preseason, either.  This week, we'll see what happens away from L.A.. 

All Away Games

Western playoff contenders were 6-6 in road games for the week. 

All Games Against Winning Teams

As far as overall quality of opposition, we played 3 games against winning teams, and have fewer left than other teams.  Phoenix still hasn't played a winning team.

All Games Against Losing Teams

Last year we feasted on bad teams, going 33-5.  That will be a big part of the story this year, whether we can match or even improve on that.  So far, so good. 

Back to Back Games Remaining

Above is overall back to backs, categorized by the difficulty of the second game.  Notice we have fewer of these than everyone except N.O. and S.A.  Next is remaining back to backs where both teams are on a back to back:

You can see that Phoenix, while having plenty of back to backs remaining, has a very large number in which the opponents are also on a back to back.  By subtracting the two, we get games where only the Western contender in question is on a back to back:

Note that there are pretty significant differences here between L.A. and Phoenix or S.A.  Our schedule is towards the more difficult end of the spectrum.  Now, we look at games where we are not on a back to back, but our opponent is:

In this category, it is an advantage to have the larger number -- more times that you face a tired opponent.

Remember, a back to back does not guarantee anything.  We lost to Denver when they were on a back to back and we weren't.  We beat OKC when we were on a back to back and they weren't.  On average, it increases the chance of victory by about 3-5% when your opponent is on a back to back.  That's significant enough to matter, but it isn't going to swing that many games.

The Coming Week

First week of the season is over.  Everyone has had their home opener, and all but L.A. have seen the road.  Time to get down to real work.

1. Portland.  Three home games, Atlanta, S.A., and Minnesota.  The Spurs will be on a Utah/Portland back to back.  Love for Minny is the only notable player expected to be missing.  Two Cat 2s and a Cat 1.  Since we've already dropped one Cat 2, it would be good not to let another get away.  2-1 won't be a disaster, but we should be looking to get all 3 of these.
2. Dallas.  Home to Utah (Cat 2), then a back to back at N.O., followed by a home game against Toronto.  They'll be looking for at least two wins.  Both Utah and Toronto will be on a back to back when they get to Dallas. 
3. Denver.  "On the road again...."  Four in five nights, back to back Cat 3s at Indiana and New Jersey, one night off, then consecutive Rocky Road Cat 4s at Miami and Atlanta.  J.R. Smith is still out, which isn't going to help them.  They did really well on a similar trip last year in February, but this will be a good test for them.  The trip continues with two more road games next week.
4. Houston.  Cat 4 at Utah, Cat 2 at home to L.A. (who will be on a back to back), and then a Cream Puff at home against OKC.
5. L.A.  Cat 3 at OKC, Cat 4 Rocky Road at Houston (back to back), then home for a Cream Puff (Cat 1) against Memphis and a Cat 2 against N.O.  Will be looking for at least three wins of the four. 
6. N.O.  Back to back tonight against the Knicks (Cat 3 Banana Peel), then home for a Cat 2 against Dallas (who will be on a back to back) and a Cat 1 against Toronto.  Finally, they close the week with a Cat 4 at the L@kers.   
7. Phoenix.  Well, that was fun so far, but now....  On the road for five in seven nights.  And they are tough.  Cat 4s at Miami, Orlando (back to back), a night off then another Cat 4 at Boston, another night off, and then an alleged Cat 3 at Washington.  They'll start next week with a back to back coming off the Washington game at Philadelphia.  If they win two of the five on the trip, that would be a pretty solid accomplishment.   
8. S.A.  Just two games, both Cat 4 Rocky Roads, at Utah and then back to back at Portland.  All the DeJuan Blair fanboys will get their dream -- Blair against Outlaw off the bench at PF.   
9. Utah.  Home against Houston tonight (Cat 2), then a tough back to back Cat 4 at Dallas (Utah couldn't win Cat 4 back to backs last year at all).  Then, home games against San Antonio and Sacramento.  Historically, their success has been built on being virtually unbeatable in SLC.  That will be tested this week. 

That's it for this week.  Projections are coming in the days ahead.  If work settles down, I'll try to do daily updates again like I did last year, but for now that isn't happening.  Check out the Magnum P.I. as well.

And Finally

Have you remembered to purchase your tickets for kids? 

Dave's original post announcing the 400 ticket target.

This man still wants to make bets, I think.

Dave's latest post says that around 250 of the 400 have been sold.

From one of Dave's posts:

Blazersedge Night:  Monday, January 25th:  Blazers vs. Hornets

Tickets sell for $22 each.  There is a $5 service charge per order no matter what the size.  Save money by buying tickets together with friends.

How to Order

You can call the Blazers directly at 503-797-9637.  PLEASE MAKE SURE to tell them you're ordering for Blazersedge Night and that you want the tickets to be donated to the kids.  (Side Note:  We also have a block of tickets reserved for BE folks who want to attend.  You can buy seats for yourself if you wish.)  The Blazers accept all of the usual forms of payment.

You can also make a PayPal donation to blazersedge22@yahoo.com.  We will pool the money collected and purchase tickets with it.  You can donate enough for multiple tickets or even partial amounts...anything is welcome.

You can also e-mail me directly at blazersub@yahoo.com  if you'd prefer to send a check via snail mail.