Oden's minutes compared with other centers in the last 25 years

by MannyJello on Nov 19, 2009 3:35 PM PST

I think most of us are somewhat frustrated with the low number of playing minutes that GO has seen so far thru 13 games. Right now he's averaging 24.2 minutes, with more games coming in under 20 minutes -- 2 -- (11/3 v ATL and 11/14 @ CHA) than games where he cracked 30 minute mark -- just the 1 -- (11/16 @ ATL game - which went to OT).

How does this compare with other centers from the past 25 years? Before I looked into these numbers, I assumed that he would compare fairly similiarly with other centers who are young and raw, since you have to figure that accummulating fouls is a common issue with young centers, as they are still learning footwork, aren't getting the benefit of the doubt since they haven't yet built up a big reputation yet, and are probably being targeted by opposing teams drawing up plays to try to draw fouls against them. I was wrong. Way wrong.

I gave GO the extreme benefit of the doubt when analyzing these numbers, comparing them to the ROOKIE years of other centers of the past 25 years. If you looked at GO's true rookie year, these numbers would look even worse since he only averaged 21.5 mins last year. Also, if you looked at sophmore seasons of the following centers, it would look worse for GO, since most of them increased as they got more experience. But again, let's look at how GO's second season numbers compare with these centers' rookie seasons:

Duncan (97-98) - 39.1 minutes
Mutombo (91-92) - 38.3 minutes
Shaq (92-93) - 37.9 minutes
Robinson (89-90) - 36.6 minutes
Hakeem (84-85) - 35.5 minutes
Ewing (85-86) - 35.4 minutes
Mourning (92-93) - 33.9 minutes
Daugherty (86-87) - 33.7 minutes
Bosh (03-04) - 33.5 minutes
Howard (04-05) - 32.6 minutes
Yao (02-03) - 29.0 minutes
Ilgauskas (97-98) - 29.0 minutes
G.O. (09-10) - 24.2 minutes

Finding players with numbers comparable to GO's minutes requires you to look well below consistent All-Star performer territory.

So what gives? At what point do we look at the coaching staff, either coddling him and not allowing him to get into a rhythm, or not teaching him to be less foul prone? Is a conditioning issue? Whatever it is, it certainly looks aberrant when comparing GO to those that we believe he should be compared to...

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I have been wondering for quite some time

Who is the coach assigned to work with Greg/Joel? Is there one? Is Joel the only one giving Greg tips on being a center? Andrew Bynum worked with that one guy…whats his name? He was in Airplane! or something. Should the Blazers talk to somebody from the movies to help Greg out? I think there was a guy in Celtic Pride and Little Nicky who could be some help.

by pdxlifer on Nov 19, 2009 3:45 PM PST reply actions

Yeah, he's foul-prone isn't he

At this point, the fouls worry me more than the injuries with regard to holding back his development. As awkward as he is sometimes, we’re still better with him on the floor than sitting, but something in his approach has to change.

Many criticize Nate for pulling him and not letting him “play through”. I’m fine with him being benched if he is racking up fouls. I want Greg available at the end of games. In the mean time, Joel plays good D and rebounds.

Its not all Greg’s fault. I’’ve gotten to the point where I think he should just nod and smiling at opposing guards penetrating down the lane. Let the offending perimeter defenders on our team deal with the consequences.

by JMoon on Nov 19, 2009 3:55 PM PST reply actions

Having him sit is fine IF and only IF Nate brings him back into the game. It seems way to often that once GO gets a few Nate sits him on the bench and never returns to the game. If Nate isn’t going to play him again why have him sit in the first place, let him play and foul out.

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by Dep H on Nov 19, 2009 4:05 PM PST up reply actions

I can certainly remember long stretches where Greg has sat down after a few fouls

but I can’t remember any times where he has been “warehoused” and never came back. I also, think the last few minutes of the game are more important than those earlier. I know some folk differ.

Bottom line for me is, Greg needs to foul less so we can have him on the floor more.

by JMoon on Nov 19, 2009 4:20 PM PST up reply actions

i had a conversation with another blazer fan that felt the way you do.

i’m surprised, actually.

i think sitting him after two fouls in the first half against most opponents is just fine.

basketball is a game of flow, and as long as oden insists on committing fouls as frequently as he does, he’ll have a very difficult time picking up on other aspects of the game in 2 minute stretches, such as post moves, turnovers, etc.

by strong on Nov 19, 2009 5:05 PM PST up reply actions

I agree with sitting him

but I think that Nate is keeping him caged up too long and he is getting too cold sitting on the bench for a prolonged period of time and then when he does get back into the game he is cold and needs to start from square one.

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by Dep H on Nov 19, 2009 6:08 PM PST up reply actions

Pryz is part of the reason

Pryz is the best backup center in the league. If the replacement player for Greg was hurting the team then Greg would getting the minutes.

Nate plays to win, not to answer minutes questions. There is a difference between Greg on the floor and Greg off the floor, but it isn’t like the difference between LMA on the floor and off the floor, so Nate feels comfortable pulling him.

by boppitywop on Nov 19, 2009 4:01 PM PST reply actions

Actually, I think Greg's been fouling less these last few games.

It feels like he’s in foul trouble (to me), only because Nate takes him out almost immediately once he commits one. By the second half Greg usually starts with (at most) 3 fouls. Also, Nate has a preplanned rotation by quarters. He splits the time evenly with Oden and Joel even if Greg’s not in foul trouble. I think he should stop this practice and just let the big guy player the whole quarter.

by Stryder9 on Nov 19, 2009 4:11 PM PST reply actions

What were Przybilla's his first few years?

I seem to recall that he fouled out even quicker. So the fact that he has improved dramatically in ability to stay on the floor should be comfort. (Not saying that Prz is a top center, although defensively he is, but that you can start shockingly bad and improve.)

by meru on Nov 19, 2009 5:40 PM PST reply actions

Year 1: 7.5 per 36, Year 2: 6.4 per 36

4.9 per 36 for his career.
Greg is at 6.5 and 6.2 in his first two years.

Greg is fouling at a lower rate than Joel – although Joel was a blocking machine in his first year. As his blocks slowed, so did his fouls.

by levelhed on Nov 19, 2009 6:14 PM PST up reply actions

Gotta play the big man...

But he also needs his rest right now. Both Greg and Joel play very hard, and exert a lot of energy on the floor. They can’t do an entire quarter without a break. Because when they get tired, they get less effective, with slower movement and a greater tendency to foul. So I’m fine with the two center rotation.

Having said that, Greg is the clear #1 here. Even though Joel is the best backup in the league, he’s no Oden.

Other posters have mentioned that they don’t think the offense should go through the low post when it’s BRoy time. I disagree, but I’d be willing to see what happens if Greg plays the first 8 minutes of every quarter, and Joel plays the last 4…

by Visionary2 on Nov 19, 2009 10:05 PM PST reply actions

I agree with you, BUT...

…that’s sort of my whole point. By comparing G.O. with other centers, we see how he rates. I’m sure most of the other centers on that list were exerting a ton of energy on both ends of the floor, but they managed to play 10+ more minutes per game — and again, in their rookie seasons. If those centers could do it, why can’t GO?

by MannyJello on Nov 20, 2009 8:23 AM PST up reply actions

How many of those fouls are legit

and how many are ref induced nonsense?

I’m rather skeptical of the refs. The replacements didn’t call this many on Greg, and now suddenly there’s a ghost foul here and there?

What’s the best way to neutralize the blazers if you’re betting on a game… blow the whistle on Greg.

This may or may not be happening but I simply don’t trust or believe in the refs anymore. If it weren’t for the blazers, i’d simply stop watching the NBA all together because I’m so disgusted by it.

"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.

But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html

"I told Pau the Lakers never win here in Portland; I think it's great." -- Rudy Fernandez

by ratbastird on Nov 20, 2009 10:34 AM PST up reply actions

Did you see that first foul on him last game?

I didn’t. It was pretty ridiculous but luckily Detroit also got hurt from the refs not letting them play.

Keep your expectations low and you won't be disappointed.

by Benjamanic on Nov 20, 2009 2:23 PM PST up reply actions

Its a scary thing, for sure

by jksnake99 on Nov 19, 2009 10:49 PM PST reply actions

One thing I notice

Big men’s rookie minutes seem to decline as we near the modern era. It’s my belief that it is much much easier for a center to pick up fouls in today’s NBA with the lifting of hand checks, defensie 3 seconds, etc. In the past bigs such as Mutombo, Shaq, etc were able to remain immobile on defense, playing “goalie” against possible penetration. In addition, the game is called much tighter these days. Where in the past one went at the hoop expecting to pay for it, now the NBA’s best charge into the lane out of control hoping to get bailed out by the refs. While it doesn’t explain all the discrepancy in minutes, I think it was easier to be a young big back in the day. Plus, most of the guys on that list were older than Oden is now, haing attended 3-4 years of college.

by momomoses7 on Nov 20, 2009 10:15 AM PST reply actions

Arvydas Sabonis

is the first Center I thought of when I saw this comparison.

23.8 mpg in his 1st season (95-96)
25.5 mpg in his 2nd season
32.0 mpg, his career max, in his 3rd season.

Now Arvydas’ limited playing time was probably due more to his creaky knees, because he didn’t foul excessively; but you can never convince me that Arvydas was “below consistent All-Star quality.” I think he was brought along slowly, like Greg; but a combination of age and sore knees limited his playing time after his season #3. It’s a shame, because if he’d managed 36 minutes per game in his NBA career I believe he’d have his #11 hanging from the Rose Garden rafters.

Greg is in Season #2 and averaging ~24 minutes per game. If he works out the fouling thing, there is no reason why he won’t average 36 minutes per game. I think momomoses7 is right on about how the rule changes have affected being a center in the NBA, and Greg is going to have to make adjustments to fit that. I’ll bet if he had entered the league 20 years earlier he’d be a lot higher on your list.

by Babyshoes on Nov 20, 2009 11:35 AM PST reply actions

I don't think this is a really valid comparison

Sabas started playing pro ball in 1982 when he was 18 years old. I did some looking around but couldn’t find stats showing how many minutes per game he played throughout his European career.

Imagine Oden played for 14 years in the NBA, besides also heavily playing for the national team, and then went over to Europe and started playing with another team in the 2021-2022 season. His minutes that season would be the equivalent of Sabas’ minutes in 95-96.

by MannyJello on Nov 20, 2009 12:02 PM PST up reply actions

Why risk his knees? I don't think he's out of the woods with his recovery just yet.

He’s getting into foul trouble and that’s part of it, but they’re playing a lot of games lately and as players get progressively more fatigued they become injury prone. Plus, he’s not used to playing that many minutes because he is always in foul trouble; he needs to get in better shape.

Bill Bayno was working with him over the summer and I’d say his footwork in the post have improved by leaps and bounds.

Keep your expectations low and you won't be disappointed.

by Benjamanic on Nov 20, 2009 2:28 PM PST up reply actions

That could be legit

If it is true that Oden is still considered to be in recovery with his knee issues and is working his way back into shape, that certainly would explain the low minutes. But I haven’t heard anything from anybody on the team saying that he is at all limited, everyone says he is 100%, now 2 years past the surgery.

Also, if it’s true that he’s just generally fatigued as he works his way into shape, I again question why his conditioning is impacting his minutes. Other good centers in the last 25 years didn’t really seem to have that problem. That would really concern me.

by MannyJello on Nov 20, 2009 3:09 PM PST up reply actions