Is Miller's lack of ability to shoot a liability in crunch time?
I'm sorry, Miller can't be in at crunch time with that shot. Now I think we see why Miller has never lead a good to great team. When teams take the ball out of Roy's hands the second guy in the rotation on the perimeter appears to be Miller and he can't shoot any better than Shaq! That's not going to work.
The other thing is Oden is getting better but there is no way he can be in down the stretch of a close game right now. He is so unsure of what to do and if he gets too close, he will be fouled and, while his free throw shooting in general is very good for a big man, he puckers up pretty good in crunch time and begins building a brick house.
One thing is evident, this team is going to miss Travis Outlaw big time down the stretch of games. For me, I'd probably say the best crunch time lineup is Roy at point, Rudy at 2, Travis at 3, LMA at 4 and Pryz or even Howard at 5. No Travis now so maybe to hold leads you add Bayless in to the mix temporarily so you have guys that can shoot, create and make free throws.
One thing I'll say is, right now, every team will do what Detroit did last night which is what Houston did in the playoffs last year. Kobe and Wade would just dribble through the triple teams and shoot anyway but Brandon won't do that so Nate is going to have to have shooters on the floor down the stretch with Brandon.
Your thoughts?
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Roy needs to man up and earn his pay
I’m sick of him being afraid to take the shot and passing to Blake in crunch time.
Since when did manning up mean
taking stupid shots when you’re triple teamed?
I don’t think Roy is backing down because he’s afraid to shoot. Perhaps he’s trying to avoid being selfish (which I recall a large portion of BEdge calling him about a month ago). But mostly, I think he’s trying to learn how to make the team win. Passing to Blake, who’s generally a very good three point shooter, when he’s wide open and Brandon is triple teamed, isn’t stupid. Shooting over the triple team is stupid. Brandon was trying that early in the season, and it wasn’t working because (a) it’s really hard to score in that situation and (b) he wasn’t getting the calls he expected.
I agree, Brandon needs to carry more of the scoring load. But I don’t think it’s an issue of him manning up. The team needs to do a better job of getting him open so he can attack defenders who aren’t as well prepared.
Against Atlanta
Roy drove into a double team and passed to Blake who missed a three, then he turned around and did the same thing. Roy should have drove to the basket and made the refs call a foul.
You can't base this off one one game.
Miller missing 4 free throws in a row was a big time anomaly. And Joel over Oden in crunch time won’t help.
As for Roy we’d all like to see him be more aggressive, but I’ll wait until the coach decides to stop playing our best player out of position to judge him more harshly on that.
I don't think his free throws are a problem
I agree Miller won’t normally miss free throws. But there are probably many on this board who at Miller’s age or younger could shoot better than him from the outside. How do you thrive as a point in this leage with that poor of a shot? I’m completely amazed.
I always thought a complimentary player to Roy would be a very good shooter who demanded a defense stay honest in crunch time (not double Roy or LMA). Miller is not that guy.
He is a good shooter.
You don’t have to be a 3 point shooter to be considered a good shooter. His midrange is pretty decent otherwise he would have trouble getting to the basket. Everyone has off nights shooting wise, and besides it’s pretty well known for those who have followed him that Andre starts slow and really gets going mid season.
Blake isn’t really a guy that keeps a defense honest. There’s a reason why defenses sag off of him in half court sets and he’s left open. He’s not seen as a big threat despite his good outside shooting, Roy still gets doubled. That could certainly be a reason why he can be considered a good fit because of the fact that people do leave him open and he’s able to hit the shot. However where Blake hurts in crunch time is when he’s handling the ball. Blake gets pressured way too easily. A full court press or trap and there’s a high chance Blake will turnover the ball one way or the other. He struggles to even inbound the ball at times. Like I’ve said I think Blake is a great 2-3 quarter back up for this team, but shouldn’t be in the game and especially handling the ball in crunch time.
Andre can fit with Roy playing off of the ball as well as Blake. Andre is a guy that really does keep a defense honest. Teams know he won’t be hitting the dagger 3 but you cannot just help off of him because he can normally hit the midrange and if left with no man can drive and lay it up or get to the line way better than Blake. To me it’s not a matter of Blake fitting better because of his shot but fitting better early on because Roy has not learned to play with a guy like Miller. Once those two click teams will have trouble doubling Brandon because they will have to look for Miller as well. Most doubles will leave guys like Aldridge or Webster/Rudy/Batum open.
The fact of the matter is with Blake/Roy we’ve really got two options as far as back court play goes. The Roy iso fadeaway jumper, or the drive and dish/layup off of a pick. Other teams know this by now. By adding Miller it creates a ton more trouble for the defense because a play can come from either guy and adapt much better than with Blake just camping out in the corner.
With Blake in the game Miller and Blake share PG duties, which takes the ball out of Brandon’s hands. People are saying Roy isn’t being aggressive enough and that’s because he’s sharing the ball with 2 point guards and playing out of position. This is why Nate needs to pick one guy and stick with him which is where picking the better option comes in. And that’s Miller. He makes up for his lack of long range shot in so many other ways.
When Blake is not handling the ball he’s just waiting to take 3s. Which is where Batum or Webster should be in instead (once Batum is healed) because they can defend and rebound as well. This would allow Brandon to play where he’s comfortable and greatly improve the D.
We shouldn’t forget how much we’ve been waiting for a better PG. We have one now and it’s time Nate let’s Miller run the offense for 3 quarters (while Blake does so as Miller rests) and then let Brandon do his thing in the 4th. Having 2 point guards play together has worked out against teams who don’t have players who can really take advantage of the small ball outside defense but it won’t last. It’s going to be difficult to really find a rhythm that really gets the team rolling if you have two point guards playing together with an out of position 2 guard who thrives on having the ball in his hands.
The Blazers are getting away with wins against mediocre teams, and boy are they some ugly wins. Once our schedule has us playing playoff teams they are going to punish us in big ways if we keep playing this line up.
I’ve gone a bit off track here but what it really comes down to is Miller + Roy in his natural position will be a lot better than what we’ve got going now. Nate needs to let those 2 really play together without a 3rd ball handler. We need bigger bodies at the 3 and none of those happen as long as Blake is starting or playing major crunch minutes.
Yes.
Is Miller’s lack of ability to shoot a liability in crunch time?
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
"Is Blakes inablilty to penetrate, take care of the ball, defend, rebound, make good passes a liability in crunch time?"
Yes
And for me his shooting is in question right now as well….sure he hit a big 3 at a good time but he was one of the main reasons the Pistons got that close anyway and lets not forget the several bricks he choked up in the Atlanta game.
Nate’s rotation right now is painful to watch
Rooo-D!
Blake can be painful to watch I agree
I agree Blake is tough to watch in crunch time but at least if he doesn’t choke or overthink it he can shoot. Miller, not so much. It’s easy to double and triple Roy when you know Miller can’t shoot.
You don't have to be a shooter to be successful in the NBA
The season is young and our offense still favors a PG like Blake who can get the wide open shot when Brandon drives. That’s not Andre’s game.
rajon rondo
can’t shoot for beans (the dude make Dwight Howard look like Steve Nash at the charity stripe). He knows how to get to the bucket, draw fouls, and distribute the ball. Sounds like somebody else i know…
Key difference between Rondo and Miller (for the Blazers):
Rondo initiates the attack, thus he doesn’t need to be an outside threat.
We don’t want Miller initiating the attack in crunch time, we give it to Roy. That’s the problem here. It’s not that Miller can’t play at the end of the game, because he can. The problem is that he doesn’t pair well with Roy, given that Roy is the initiator in crunch time. Rondo wouldn’t pair well with Roy either.
Of course it is!
What kind of a question is that?
*Unless KP has a secret plan that makes this statement incorrect.
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yes, it's a liability-- just like its a liability the rest of the game
It doesn’t mean its more important than all the good things he does. He’s our best PG by a country mile and he needs to be out there.
What I loved about Miller in crunch time last night were these two things...
1. Every other Blazer would get the ball, dribble like they were scared mice until they got doubled, then pivot looking for another Blazer to come rescue them.
Miller, on the other hand, would dribble slow and easy, having no problem dribbling out of double teams, and not picking up the ball until he intended to pass or shoot. He was calm under the press and seemed like the only Blazer not running around like chickens so lately decapitated.
2. Calls not going his way? Sneer at the officials and play harder.
Opposing coach trying to key on you? Sneer at the coach and drain everything else you shoot for the rest of the game.
Andre wins best Blazer in the 4th quarter for me.
But if the question is simply, “Is the lack of an ability of such & such a liability in which time such & such ability would be useful?”, then it is a doltishly easy question to answer.
*Unless KP has a secret plan that makes this statement incorrect.
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He's been in the league 10 years now
And is shooting easily his lowest percentage of that career. Hopefully the rotation gets settled and we’ll be able to utilize his strengths more effectively as the season unfolds. Greg Oden’s development is more important to me than the possibility of losing a couple early season games.
Absolutely NOT!
Couldn’t disagree with this post more.
1) Dre is the quarterback, on O and D. We desperately need him to remain the QB in the 4th. As levelhed just said, his shooting percentage is way below his career average. Small sample size bias in effect…
2) Oden is a monster. He MUST be on the court when we need a stop. And he’s starting to build a nice library of low post moves. Give it time. If he hasn’t fouled out, he needs to be on the court in the 4th.
3) Bayless is barely ready for garbage time right now, never mind crunch time.
The Blazers best five are clearly Dre, Roy, Rudy, LMA, GO. Play them, Nate!
I think I agree most with your "give it time" comment.
It’s way too early to tell yet who is going to be what. And maybe this is back on Brandon for being too unselfish. I guess it’s just been shocking to me how great this team was the last 2 years in crunch time and how poor they have been so far to start this season (Denver, Atlanta twice, etc.) . I guess I’m overly sold on the idea that Brandon is too clutch to allow other guys to shoot too often in the last few minutes of a game and that if he does pass, it needs to be to a wide open Rudy or LMA and not to Oden or Miller.
Time will tell if I am crazy or if this is going to be a problem against the better teams as it has been so far. If I have Wade, Kobe, Lebron, or yes, Brandon, I want them taking most of the shots in the last 2-3 minutes of a close game. The players in the game at that point should strictly compliment their skills and shouldn’t require the ball to be effective but instead be assasins from distance (not Miller) and able to hit free throws (not GO so far). Miller’s need to have the ball to be effective is causing Brandon to way too easily give up the ball in my opinion and that is a problem in my eyes.
Thanks for all the comments.
Is the inability to take it to the rack, finish and draw fouls a liability in crunch time?
Yes, I say. Why do we think the ability to hit the open jumper is the only option when teams are doubling and trippling Brandon in crunch time in a tight game. What if instead of catch and shoot, Miller ends up in space with a lane to the hoop/foul prone bigs in the lane when Brandon is doubled/trippled.
How often in the last couple years have Brandon freethrows helped close out the game? What if we had another guy who could do that some, one who is going to have more space to operate since half the opposing team is busy crowding Brandon at the top of the arc?
THANK YOU!
Ive been saying this since his name came up after the Hedo disaster.
Thanks god the contract is only for 1 1/2 more years
Jason Kidd couldn't shoot either which pretty much blows this argument out of the water
I’m sure you’re a Blake guy and Blake – when he’s not having a career year – is a pretty average shooter also. The difference is Blake can’t do much else.
Blazer Fan
his shooting is off so far this year, but
Dre normally has a solid FG%. The past couple years with Philly if I recall he averaged around 48%. I think his career avg is around 46. His shooting will pick up and he does basically everything else better than Blake. In some cases, like driving and getting to the line and generally directing an offense, much better.
There’s 10 years of real-world evidence to back this up – I swear some of you guys don’t pay attention to players until they’re on the Blazers.
It seems to me so far this season Dre’s receiving an inordinate amount of passes (usually courtesy of Mr. Blake) with less than 4 seconds on the shot clock. The proverbial flaming bag, a bad look and no choice but to shoot…
Miller has taken a lot of rushed shots so far because of receiving the ball last second.
That’s a good thing to point out. Pretty much every game so far it seems like he’s taken 1-2 rushed attempted shot clock beaters courtesy of Blake (and some from Roy as well to be fair).
Blake has always been one of those PGs guilty or running around or standing there for a good 10-15 seconds not sure what to do. His court vision does not compare to Andre’s. Andre is one of those PGs who see’s everything happening before it happens. Blake is what he is, a good shooter and decent passer. To me he’d be well served playing an Eddie House type role. House is not a very good player to be quite honest, but comes in off the bench and hits a flurry of 3’s and does a bit of ball handling. Blake is well suited for that kind of role.
Let's face it, non of the guards have played up to our expectations thus far.
But come mid season when they start to click, this team is going to be deadly.
Portland's PG of the Future - MORE John Wall
Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.
Yes
The fact that he is taking wayyyy more outside shots than in the past, and the fact that the lane is going to be crowded whenever Goden and Rody are on the floor, means that he is going to continue to have to take the outside shots that he didn’t take in Philly, and because of his poor outside shot he is going to continue to struggle with his fg% from the field.
Which will obviously hurt us in the 4th.
You're saying that they look like they're giving it their all. And you know why they look that way? Because they're bad, and it literally takes them the maximum physical effort to accomplish basic baseball tasks like throwing the ball from short to first. When David Eckstein throws the ball to first base, he has to wind up like a shot-putter, spin around forty-three times, and launch it at an angle 89 degrees from the horizontal. Afterwards, he undergoes an IV drip for a fortnight and he's so out of breath that he requires several months of acupuncture to regain the power of speech. For this we laud him. -Junior of Deadspin on 'scrappy' players
I don't get Blazer fans sometimes.
Andre Miller is a bad shooter with a career 46% field goal percentage. Then people talk about what a great shooter Webster is with a 41% career percentage? Is my math wrong here? I always thought 46% was better than 41%.
also just because it is crunch time doesn't mean you
have to settle for a jumper.
A couple of things to explain why people think this way.
FG% is a hard thing to use to compare two players, because they are taking different shots. Miller generally takes and makes more close-in shots than other PG’s, which would give him a higher fg% by comparison. Martell takes more outside shots and threes, so if he had the same fg% as Miller, he would clearly be the better shooter.
A way that 82games.com and many other places counter this problem is by looking at effective field goal percentage where 40% on three pointers is given the same weight as 60% on 2 pointers, because you would score the same amount of points with the same amount of shots with those percentages.
So when you compare the eFG% of Martell and Miller you can see that Martell at .432, and Miller at .403, Martell is the more efficient (takes and makes better shots) shooter. Also just generally watching the game you can see that Martell has better form which, while not a perfect way to compare, means that his shots have a better chance to go in from a mechanics perspective (better ball rotation, higher arc).
That’s why people consider Martell a better shooter.
Yes, that is true that in crunch time a jump shot is not always great, but when a player drives this opens up a man on the perimeter (generally) for the more efficient three point shot. Brandon Roy is a better driver, and so when he kicks out and the man receiving is Andre that advantage that Roy just created is lost, because Miller can’t shoot the long ball, and so will drive himself, leaving us with a worse shot than if Brandon had just shot the ball himself.
You're saying that they look like they're giving it their all. And you know why they look that way? Because they're bad, and it literally takes them the maximum physical effort to accomplish basic baseball tasks like throwing the ball from short to first. When David Eckstein throws the ball to first base, he has to wind up like a shot-putter, spin around forty-three times, and launch it at an angle 89 degrees from the horizontal. Afterwards, he undergoes an IV drip for a fortnight and he's so out of breath that he requires several months of acupuncture to regain the power of speech. For this we laud him. -Junior of Deadspin on 'scrappy' players
Time to have Oden start camping out in the corner
Dude’s shooting 60+%

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