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How Outlaw and Batum's injuries might be good for the Blazers in the long run

As a disclaimer: We never want to see any Blazer get hurt.  If he's under contract and wearing a uniform, we want them healthy, happy, and productive.  This is my attempt to look at the silver lining of a less-than-deal situation, although I think many of these scenarios will end up playing-out pretty accurately.

Other than Greg Oden's development, the biggest issue/story of the pre-season and early season has been minute,s and how they are distributed amongst all of our young, talented players.  It's the one curse of having a roster loaded with young talent: keeping everyone happy with their role and playing time.  In regards to playing time, the biggest question was at the 3, how Nate would divide the playing time to keep Batum, Webster, and Outlaw happy.  On the heels of that discussion came many suggestions that we should trade Outlaw for help at the 1 or the 4 (pre Andre Miller signing).  I was surprised by those ovations considering the versatility and scoring punch Outlaw brings to the table for us.  Nonetheless, there was some logic behind the argument.

Fast forward to today:  minutes problem - solved.  With both Nicolas Batum and Outlaw out for 3-5 months (putting them back with the squad sometime in the late spring) the issue of competition at the 3 is irrelevant (for now).  And what Blazer fan isn't thoroughly appreciative that we didn't make some of the suggested trades with our wing players, which has kept the outlook during this injury-riddled portion of the season more positive than it would have been otherwise?  Our depth and talent that were once considered an "issue" are now our saving grace.

It definitely hurts to lose 2 players that were major contributors to the team; Batum as a starter and Travis as the main man off the bench, not to mention the versatility and depth they give us.  But I think in the long-run this could end up being a good thing for the Blazers, for the following reasons:

1)  The Blazers will be fine

Unless we have some major unforeseen collapse, the Blazers will still make the playoffs, and Batum and Outlaw will be back when we do.  We still have Miller/Blake, Roy, Aldridge, and Oden to get us there.  Those players alone should ensure we make the playoffs at a decent seed, let alone the presence of Rudy and Martell.  We're one of the few teams that could endure losses like this and not have much of a letdown.  Both guys will be back for the playoffs, so we will be at full strength when it really counts

2)  It will help the players that were buried on the bench

The loss of these 2 guys should help develop some of our players that weren't seeing many minutes to start the season.  Rudy and Martell, and even Bayless (and maybe Cunningham?) will see more minutes with them out.  For Rudy we will see if he can shoulder more of an offensive load and be a go-to guy for us, which will help us determine his future and value with the organization.  Martell won't have to look over his shoulder as much and can focus on playing, and the Blazers can evaluate where he stands in the small forward rotation once everyone is back and healthy.  It should also give Martell experience, especially on the defensive end, to prepare him for when we need him to step up in the playoffs and guard some of the league's elite scorers.  And if Cunningham gets any run, it was more than he was going to get, so that can't be bad.  Most importantly, it lets Rudy and Martell establish value.  Rudy was a reserve and was good in spots last year, and Martell is coming off a year-long injury.  Regardless of whether they remain Blazers or not, the extended playing time will increase their value (hopefully), either in experience, or for trade value should we want to move them for other assets at some point

3)  We might be able to keep Travis, and keep him cheaper

It's a contract year for Travis, and as much as I'd like to see him get paid "Like outta this world" - I don't think that would happen with the Blazers.  This injury might be a blessing in disguise for us, as with a depressed league economy and a ridiculous free agent class, teams might be less willing to shell out money for a guy coming off a long-time injury, and the Blazers might be able to retain him for less than we would have otherwise.  This could also become a null point if Travis comes back and kills in the playoffs and actually raises his value - but as a fan that's a terrific turnout as well

 

All said and done - I think this time will be a great test for the Blazers, and dealing with the adversity of losing two main contributors for a majority of the season will make us stronger in the end-game.  At the same time, it will help us really identify the value of these players, something that would have been harder to do with everyone healthy and playing.

How do you think it will turn out?

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I don't agree that these injuries prove we shouldn't have made a trade during the offseason

Firstly, Travis was the most common player involved in those trade ideas, so if he was traded this past off season for say, Brandon Bass, then either he wouldn’t have been injured playing for Dallas, (assuming a sign and trade) or he would have been injured while playing for dallas, either way his injury wouldn’t have effected the Blazers. Right now by keeping him this injury really effects the Blazers so the arguement could be made that the team made a mistake by not trading Travis his offseason while his value was high, (ie before he was injuried which will reduce his value).

With that said, I posted before that his injury may infact be a blessing in disguise. More playing time for Rudy, who is one of the most talented Blazers is a good thing. And more playing time together for the teams future core, (roy, Batum, Oden, LMA, Rudy) is always good even if Batum is still out. Rudy is a much more efficient scorer than Travis and is a better playmaker, two things which we will get to see in the comming months with Travis out of action. For this team to take another step one, Rudy needs to take on the role of 6th man for the Blazers, and while I wish Travis the best, his injury opens that door for Rudy to walk though.

by usmcr3049 on Nov 18, 2009 2:07 PM PST reply actions  

In Walks Rudy =)

"I don't always read blogs regarding the Trail Blazers
...but when I do... I read Blazers Edge."

- resurrect_ha28

by FiveOhThree-RipCity!! on Nov 18, 2009 2:54 PM PST up reply actions  

true..

I think the main thing here is what Travis brings to the Blazers..

I was from the camp that felt that we shouldn’t trade him, as his versatility and offensive punch are sorely needed on our team…so I am coming at it from the angle that this happening might actually improve our chances of keeping him long-term

obviously, if we traded him his current injury would not effect us, but with Batum hurt, if we had traded Outlaw we’d be in the same situation with less light at the end of the tunnel

by rip_city_swagger on Nov 18, 2009 3:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Agreed

The roster was too packed, we all knew that.

I don’t want to get into a big Travis fight, but he’s more or less the same player as last season and while nobody else can get a shot off like he can, they possibly can do other things he could never do like play good defense and limit mental mistakes.

Losing Both Batum and Travis sucks, but there are plenty of other options and this will give them time to shine, or fail miserably.

Blazer Fan

by leeroyjenkins on Nov 18, 2009 2:25 PM PST reply actions  

How? Not good.

They’re one major injury away from falling out of playoff contention; well maybe they’d get a really low seed but not much better.

The Good: Rudy will play up to his elevated role, take over some playmaking, and play defense with a lot of heart to make up for his slight frame. He’ll show why he was one of Europe’s best players.

The Bad: Martell’s poor ball-handling skills will be further exposed, as will his lack of game-time confidence when shooting. Roy will become more and more exhausted as the season progresses from being overburdened offensively; his defense will suffer.

We will confirm that Bayless isn’t a decent point guard and that his defense isn’t as good as I previously gave him credit for; his jump shot will show improvement. We will find that Howard’s solid career should be over after this year. If Cunningham does get minutes, it will become evident that he is too slow-footed to guard 3s on the perimeter and too small to guard 4s down low; on the upside, he’ll be a good rebounder for his size who can reliably hit a midrange jumper. If Pendergraph recovers well AND gets some time, we will come to understand that a plane ticket to Europe is in order for him.

We will learn to accept that, as fans, we and KP have in fact been duped by our rose-colored homer goggles into believing that the young’uns were that good.

by Benjamanic on Nov 18, 2009 2:35 PM PST reply actions  

wow a "glass is half-emtpy" guy huh?

i don’t think you’re giving our guys enough credit.

By one major injury, I’m assuming you mean to Brandon or Lamarcus, and yeah, of course if we lose one of our 2 best players our playoff odds would change – I’m not talking about what-ifs, I’m discussing the reality of the current situation. Even if we had Batum and Outlaw, if we lost one of our top 2 guys we’d be in trouble

Martell’s not supposed to be a lead guy, but the minutes he gets will help establish his value both to th Blazers and the rest of the league, if he struggles then so be it – at least we know what we have and how to proceed with him…

Brandon getting tired from offensive load? Since when has he not carried the offensive load? And as long as he has Aldridge, and now the emerging post presence of Oden, he’ll be fine. Losing Travis did not take away enough offense what BRoy will be left exhausted and drained and hurting on the defensive end

Obviously Howard, Cunningham, and Bayless are not “replacements” but they’re a lot better than what most NBA teams have sitting at the end of their bench.

And what young players have we been “duped” into thinking are good? Obviously not Roy, Rudy, Aldridge, Oden, Batum, or Outlaw….so are you referring to Bayless, Cunningham, and Pendergraph??? Outside of some Bayless fans I don’t think most would consider them “that good”, they’re end of the bench guys….

by rip_city_swagger on Nov 18, 2009 3:14 PM PST up reply actions  

Yup. I'm a glass is half empty guy.

It’s always better to temper one’s expectations in order to avoid being let down. I learned that in 2000. Yeah, a lot of people think that Cunningham and Bayless are better than they are or are going to be, just like they were with Sergio. We are figuring out where Martell’s at and it’s not looking good.

If I remember correctly, Roy admitted to being “exhausted” toward the end of the Houston series. Yesterday, I saw Roy getting beat off the dribble repeatedly, causing easy buckets or fouls on the bigs. His defense really is suffering. Aldridge can be trusted to take late game shots, but I wouldn’t trust Oden to do that yet.

Keep your expectations low and you won't be disappointed.

by Benjamanic on Nov 19, 2009 12:05 PM PST up reply actions  

Raises hand

what Blazer fan isn’t thoroughly appreciative that we didn’t make some of the suggested trades with our wing players

Trading Travis for a better backup at the 4/5 would’ve made KP look like a genius, right now. Everyone is saying “we need another small forward” but no…Travis was playing backup PF to LMA, at least most of the time. What the roster needs (before Travis’ injury and especially now, after) is a better backup PF option than Howard, and preferably a guy who could also play emergency center

Unfortunately, KP’s best option to acquire this player is now headed for foot surgery. (and trading Blake would only weaken the roster in another area…)

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Nov 18, 2009 4:57 PM PST reply actions  

Outlaws trade value

So If Outlaw is out half the season (41 games) part of his contract is covered by insurance right? doesn’t this make him have a greater trade value to a team looking to save money?

Trade players for picks and draft Cole Aldrich 2010

by jlarose78 on Nov 18, 2009 6:01 PM PST reply actions  

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