Berri from Wages of Wins: Yes it is Early - But Portland is the Best Team in the West
Berri touts efficiency differential to suggest that the Blazers are the best team in the West so far. His efficiency differential analysis is simplistic, to be sure - he doesn't take strength of schedule or anything else into account, alla Hollinger's muc more advanced power rankings - but he also includes the early season win score breakdown, which indicates that Oden (improving), Rudy (improving), and Przy (steady) have been dominant, while Roy has been solid, and LMA is developing into a productive player through the WoW looking glass. It's worth a quick read.
about 2 years ago
KP Corleone
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A stopped clock is right twice a day
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5
It's remotely possible he's got something right here
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5
You don't believe in win score?
Forget about the efficiency differential thing… That’s completely attributable to schedule strength.
But I thought there were a couple interesting things to note, though, as win score does sometimes pick up on when a player’s value (or lack thereof) is way off from his perceived value:
-Even though his traditional stats haven’t improved, LMA is finally becoming a productive player by the win score metric
-Trout is one of the least productive players on the team
-Rudy is one of the most productive players on the team
It will be interesting to see how Travis’s absence and Rudy’s additional minutes affects the team’s performance. Essentially Berri’s early stats indicate the Blazers should generate .2 additional wins for every 48 minutes Rudy is playing instead of Travis.
Also, the team is playing well in the early going even though Roy is performing worse. If Roy picks things back up, Miller returns to being above average, and LMA maintains his level of play, win score would suggest the Blazers will have a dominant team.
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
by KP Corleone on Nov 18, 2009 11:16 AM PST up reply actions
Significantly overrates defensive rebounds
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5
Aside from Dave Berri foolishly thinking that defensive rebounds correlate to good defense — as well ...
as his lack of recognizing that defensive rebounds have a high rate of diminishing returns — his arrogantly titled Wins Produced metric is more useful overall than John Hollinger’s PER. As it is, though, I find it’s best to look at a combination of WoW, PER, and also adjusted +/- — particularly stats like net points allowed per 100 possessions and net eFG% allowed (i.e., defensive-minded +/- stats) — whenever I attempt to guage a player’s overall value.
Dear Paul Allen:
Fire Nate McMillan & hire Jeff Van Gundy.
Sincerely,
AK1984
agreed
if a player is scoring well in multiple metrics, you can usually bet that they are a valuable and contributing player.
I am happy that we are doing well in differential, PER, and WoW.
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
by HurraKane212 on Nov 18, 2009 11:07 AM PST up reply actions
I'm also happy that LMA is improving his WoW score
Berri metric, not Warcraft…
If he does well across the board of NBA metrics, he’ll be really helping this team.
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
by HurraKane212 on Nov 18, 2009 11:08 AM PST up reply actions
At the risk of turning this into a pseudo-junkdrawer:

πάτερ, ἄφες αὐτοῖς, οὐ γὰρ οἴδασιν τί ποιοῦσιν.
Perhaps a good reason not to have a high WoW score....
πάτερ, ἄφες αὐτοῖς, οὐ γὰρ οἴδασιν τί ποιοῦσιν.
Agreed
Some combination weighting win score, PER, and 82games.com’s “simple rating” (the average of PER differential vs. opposing players and on court/off court differential per 100 possessions) would seem to be the perfect metric, if the goal is to boil everything down to one number. PER tends to overrate some high volume scorers, win score overrates low usage rebounders, and simple rating has a lot of noise involved. But those three stats combined generally give a pretty good impression of value.
By all three of those metrics, by the way, Oden has been dominant so far this season. He has an insane PER differential over 12, the Blazers have been over 12 points better per 100 possessions with him on the court (elite level), and his PER is over 20. And it doesn’t even seem like he’s really played all that consistently well yet – compared to the flashes of domination he’s shown. In any event, all signs point to the big guy continuing his natural progression into utter beastliness.
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
by KP Corleone on Nov 18, 2009 11:24 AM PST up reply actions
That's fine
But my eyes tell me that while our current lineup has been effective against recent competition, we are not the best team in the league. Our record is good, but against a weak schedule. We are doing pretty well, and I’m not complaining, but Denver, Atlanta, and Phoenix all have better records against much tougher schedules, with some quality road wins.
Any statistical model that ranks us #1 right now is simply broken.
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5
Sorry, should have left Atlanta off, they are in the East
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5
Oh, I totally agree that the Portland Trail Blazers aren't the best team in the Western Conference.
Furthermore, Dave Berri’s WoW statistical model and WP metric are intrinsically flawed in light of the ridiculous emphasis that’s placed upon defensive rebounding. That aside, though, it’s nevertheless an informative stat to analyze in context.
Dear Paul Allen:
Fire Nate McMillan & hire Jeff Van Gundy.
Sincerely,
AK1984
Why wouldn't it correlate to good defense?
If a Blazer gets a defensive rebound, that means a shot was missed. If enough shots are missed, one can’t just chalk it up to opponents missing good looks. Net points allowed sounds like a good one though.
I know this is a little off the subject, but is there a stat for number of shots allowed per opponent possession?
Keep your expectations low and you won't be disappointed.
It correlates at a team level
not at an individual level. At a team level you can say that teams that are playing good defense cause missed shots and so defensive rebounds indicate good defense.
On the other hand, when you work that down to an individual, if Shane Battier works his butt off and makes Kobe take a terrible shot, and Scola gets the rebound, operating of the same premise, Scola gets the credit for that defensive possession because he got the rebound, rather than Battier who acutally played the D.
Gotcha. Thanks for explaining.
Keep your expectations low and you won't be disappointed.
I feel for the west
if this ugly basketball is the best we’ve got. I don’t think the Blazers have quite clicked yet, but barring any more injuries they’ll get there.
My feelings as well (probably most peoples)
It seems obvious that they aren’t quite at their best yet and are still developing continuity on offense AND defense.
They’ll get there, hopefully soon. Roy seems to be letting everybody else find their way, before he takes over.
Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game
I don't get how you can look at us...
…then look at Denver and still call us the best team in the West.
Yeah.
The Blazers are not the best in the West. They’re a pretty good jump shooting team. Their ability to get to the rack is suspect at best.
Keep your expectations low and you won't be disappointed.
Denver won here but we missed 5 free throws in the last few min.'s
It’s not like we could not have the best record in the west now with only a couple of minor things going our way. Really has anyone out played us badly ? NO! Our worst lose was to Houston there. We should of beat Denver, and Alanta also, not to say those teams are not great yet, but really we have been very good, while still not playing up to our best.
Denver has had a much tougher schedule
They are 8-3, with quality road wins at Portland (if we’re so good as Berri thinks, that road win is really impressive) and Chicago, and quality home wins against Utah and LA.
Our top quality road wins are at OKC and New Orleans. Our top quality home wins are Houston and San Antonio.
Put us at 10-2 and I still wouldn’t be in a hurry to put us #1, but at least we could make a better case for it.
Phoenix is 10-2 with 8 of their games on the road, and quality road wins at Miami, Boston, and Houston. We don’t have a single performance that matches any of those three wins. Their only losses are on the road at Orlando and LA. Those two teams met in the Finals last year.
I like our team, and by the end of the year I am very high on our chances of being ahead of those two teams. But both have a much stronger claim to #1 in the West than we do.
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5
Berri's player stats are somewhat broken
thanks to diminishing returns. However, his team stats have been shown to pretty consistently predict a team’s wins. Say what you want to about his player ratings, but his team ratings tend to be on the money. I trust him when he says we’re the best in the west, although we admittedly have a small sample size to go off of. But really, if you look at his track record, his team ratings are almost always accurate to within a few games. The issue with his player stats is with assigning responsibility for the elements that produced those wins.
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.—Dune
Totally disregards strength of schedule
which at this point in the season is so unbalanced as to make his analysis worthless.
It isn’t just small sample size, it is disparate samples.
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5
Could not agree more, jscot
It’s like if the Kings were just crushing NCAA teams, and then he put out a post about how the Kings were the best team in the league. If you’re not going to even attempt to account for SOS, why bother even making the post? It’s just such an easy and obvious counter-argument.
So easy even I can make it
"Woulda, Coulda, Mighta and Shoulda – the Four Horsemen of the Procrastocalypse" - Red-5




















