The Sched Ahead -- 11/16/09 Week Four, Reclassifications

SUMMARY INFO

This weekly schedule analysis is based on four categories of games:

1. Home games against sub .500 teams.  Cream Puff Home.
2. Home games against winning teams (I'm including teams right at .500 in this category).  Jawbreaker Home.
3. Road games at losing teams.  Banana Peel Road.
4. Road games at winning teams.  Rocky Road.

A general formula for success in the NBA is to win almost all of Cat 1 (Cream Puff Home), a majority of Cat 2 (Jawbreaker Home) and Cat 3 (Banana Peel Road), and win some in Cat 4 (Rocky Road).  The contenders may win more than half of their Cat 4 games.

Back to Backs (hereafter BtoB) are also tracked so as to provide further data on schedule difficulty.

Last week's update

CHANGES THIS WEEK

And so we move to the fourth week of the season.  This week, for the first time, we'll be using the current year's results to classify teams as winners or losers.  This is imperfect (games against Sacramento and OKC count as games against winners, and while one of those might continue, both are very unlikely).  But it is better than last year's record at this point, IMO.

Note that I am continuing to track both Utah and N.O. even though they have poor records.  In my opinion, these teams are more likely to challenge for a playoff spot than the other possible contenders I am not tracking.  If any other Western team continues to stay above .500 over the next few weeks, I will include them in these summaries, and if any team continues a bad run beyond the 20th game or so, I'll drop them out.  For now, we'll stick with these nine teams as the most likely playoff contenders.

Teams formerly treated as winning teams and now treated as losing teams:  New Orleans, Philadelphia, Utah

Teams formerly treated as losing teams and now treated as winning teams: Detroit (.500 teams count as winning teams), Indiana, Milwaukee, OKC, Sacramento, Toronto

Interestingly enough, there are many more teams at or over .500 than teams below.  That is because a few teams are graciously doing their best to absorb as many losses as they can, to the benefit of the other teams.  Charity is breaking out in Minnesota, Memphis, NJ, NY, and Washington.  Clearly, some teams are committed to seeing that no Eastern team with a losing record makes the playoffs THIS year, by losing as many games as they can to as many people as possible.  This means there are many more games being considered as Cat 4s at this early point in the season, so there will be significant changes in the tables from last week.

COMMENTS ON THE WEEK

Portland (4-0) won all four Cat 3 Banana Peel games this week (the N.O. game has been reclassified into the easier Cat 3 classification).  We also cleared two of our BtoB games, and a 4 in 5 nights.  Few teams will go through a 4 in 5 on the road without a loss, even if the opponents are weak.  Really solid week.

Dallas (3-1) had a really nice week, winning a tough Jawbreaker Cat 2 at home against Houston and a Cat 3 Banana Peel at Minnesota, and splitting two Rocky Road Cat 4s at S.A. and Detroit.  They are looking like some of the hype was legit.

Denver (2-1) also had a good week, splitting back to back Cat 4s at Chicago and Milwaukee, then getting a nice Jawbreaker home win against the L@kers.

Houston (2-2) had a solid week, winning a Cream Puff (Cat 1) at home against Memphis, and one of three Cat 4 Rocky Road games, losing at Dallas and Sacramento then rescuing their week and earning our appreciation with a win at L.A.   

L.A.  (1-2) had a bad week, splitting two Cat 2 games (Phoenix W, Houston L) and losing a Cat 4 at Denver.  I'm struggling to control my grief, and just managing.  

N.O. (1-3) has their season of misery continue, winning a Cat 3 BtoB at the Clips but then losing three straight, two Cat 4s at Phoenix and Atlanta, and a home Cat 2 to Portland.  They are not playing well, but do not be deceived by their record -- their schedule has been very difficult.  They have only played two games against losing teams, and both were on the road.  They have not been good, but their schedule has made it look worse.

Phoenix (3-1).  Another strong week.  A Banana Peel win at Philly, a Cat 1 Cream Puff at home against N.O., then on the road for a thumping by the L@kers, but back home for a Cat 2 win against a decent Toronto team.

S.A. (2-1) had three Cat 2 home games against winning teams, beating Toronto and Dallas but losing to OKC.  Not a bad week, but not what they were hoping to get. 

Utah (2-2) split four on the road in six nights, winning the Cat 3 Banana Peels at NY and Philly and losing the Rocky Road games at Boston and Cleveland.  Given Utah's history on the road, a decent performance -- but they never win Cat 4s.

Helped themselves:  Portland, Dallas, Denver, Phoenix.

So-so: Houston, S.A., Utah. 

Hurt themselves:  L.A., N.O.

The tables:

Cat 4 -- Rocky Road

In these hardest games, there is a significant disparity already.  Although we have had more road than home games, only two have been against winning teams, and one of those was at OKC.  Denver, on the other hand, has played six.  In terms of remaining games, however, we're middle of the pack.  This is because of our advantage in only playing at S.A. and L.A. once each this year.  Effectively, though, we've used that advantage up now, as almost everyone has played more of these tough games than we have.

Cat 3 -- Banana Peel Road 

Here, however, we do have an advantage.  No road game is a sure thing, and we've booked all four of these into the win column.  These are called "Banana Peel" for a reason, and we've avoided slip-ups.  No one else has played four of these games yet, and three of our rivals have already dropped one of them.  In general, Western contenders should be expected to win somewhere between 65-85% of these games.  We're well ahead of the game in that respect.

Cat 2 -- Jawbreaker Home

The tough part of Denver's schedule is that they have plenty of tough home games ahead.  Expect Western contenders to win between 2/3 and 3/4 of these games -- everyone will pick up some losses in this category, but probably quite a few more wins than losses.

Cat 1 -- Cream Puff Home

Last week we were showing Utah and N.O. with losses in this category, but they have been recategorized to Cat 2 due to the Kings' and Raptors' good start.  Expect to see the Utah loss, at least, return to this category before long.

All Home Games

L.A. and N.O. dropped home games this week.  L.A. has been burning through their home games, and has lost a couple of them.  Not really a great start for them despite their good overall record. 

All Away Games

Before this week, Western playoff contenders overall were 14-15 in road games.  That record is now 26-25 -- meaning a combined 12-10 for the week.  Take Portland out of the picture and it is 8-10.  We have the best road record of the contenders, at 5-1, but of course, our road schedule has been soft.  L.A. and S.A. have hardly been out on the road.

All Games Against Winning Teams

The weak schedule of the last week simply redressed the balance, we are now right there with others as far as remaining games against winning teams.  Utah has the toughest schedule left in this regard, and has been very bad against good teams.  N.O. has been bad, too, but at least they don't have as many tough games left as Utah.

All Games Against Losing Teams

A big part of our success last year was beating the bad teams consistently, home and away.  So far, so good. 

Back to Back Games Remaining

Categorized by the difficulty of the second game.  Good to clear two of those this week, we have fewer remaining thna the others, but more of the hardest ones (Cat 4 tough road games).  Of remaining back to backs, the following are the number of games where the other team is on a back to back as well.  Note that when L.A. is on a back to back, they almost never get help from the other team being on a back to back as well.

Net, the games where only the Western contender in question is on a back to back:

Big schedule disadvantage here for L.A.  Note that Denver has 13 of these games remaining, but five are at home, while of our 12, only two are home, and nine are at winning teams.  Now, we look at games where we are not on a back to back, but our opponent is:

As mentioned last week, Denver and Utah will face significantly more tired opponents than Portland. 

The Coming Week

1. Portland.  Four games this week, one in every category.  Toughest first, with a Rocky Road trip to Atlanta, who is on a roll, and we're on our fifth in seven nights.  Win this, and the league will sit up and take notice.  Then home for a Cat 2 against Detroit on Wednesday, who plays at the L@kers the night before.  Then out for a Cat 3 at G.S. (we never won there last year, that needs to be fixed), and back home the next night for a Cat 1 against Minnesota.  Three wins would be a really solid week.  Four would probably silence Nate's critics for at least two minutes.  Well, some of them.
2. Dallas.  Cat 4 at Milwaukee tonight (BtoB), then home for two Cat 2s against San Antonio and Sacramento.
3. Denver.  Cat 2 at home to Toronto, Cat 3 at the Clips, then back home on a BtoB for another Cat 2 against Chicago.  Hopefully they drop one of the three, anyway.
4. Houston.  A tough week, with a really weird 4 in 5 nights schedule.  Cat 2 at home against Phoenix, then Cat 3 Banana Peel at Minnesota (BtoB), a night off, then a tough Cat 4 at Atlanta, and then back home looking for revenge in a Cat 2 against Sacramento (both teams BtoB).  Usually 4 in 5 nights is on the road, this is home-away-away-home.  Weird.
5. L.A.  The home schedule continues, with three Cat 2s against "winning teams".  Chicago is 5-4, Detroit and OKC are at .500.  The L@kers will be very disappointed to drop any of these. 
6. N.O.  Finally a losing team on the schedule, a Cat 1 Cream Puff at home against the Clips, then two more home games, but tougher Cat 2 games as Phoenix and Atlanta come to town.  The Hawks will be on a BtoB.  If N.O. can pick up two of these with CP3 out, it would be a great accomplishment.  If they lose all 3 it would be no great surprise.
7. Phoenix.  Two tricky road games, Cat 4 at Houston then Cat 3 at N.O.  Then, they close the week at home against Detroit, who will be on a BtoB.  
8. S.A.  They open with a Cat 4 at Dallas, then host the Jazz in a "Cream Puff" in which both teams are on a back to back.  Not sure that deserves to be a Cream Puff, but the spreadsheet says Utah has a losing record, so we'll go with it.  They close with another alleged Cream Puff against Washington, who is probably tougher than their record shows.  The "Bullets" will be on a back to back.
9. Utah.  They host Toronto in a Cat 2, with the Raptors on a BtoB, then go the next night to S.A. for a Cat 4 with both teams on a BtoB.  They go back home to host Detroit in a Cat 2 (though I'll be surprised if Detroit is at .500 by the end of the week).  Utah will be looking for two wins, hoping for three. 

That's it for this week.  A win at Atlanta sets the week up nicely.  Lose that, and we can still have a strong week if we take care of business the rest of the week.  But any of those games could be dangerous.  We would greatly benefit by putting G.S. away early so we aren't fatigued coming back the next night.

And Finally

Have you remembered to purchase your tickets for kids? 

Dave's original post announcing the 400 ticket target.

In case you missed it, check the post on Mentors' Night.

Dave's latest post says over 300 of the 400 have been sold.  It would be really cool if it were taken care of by Thanksgiving, that would be two months in advance.

From one of Dave's posts:

Blazersedge Night:  Monday, January 25th:  Blazers vs. Hornets

Tickets sell for $22 each.  There is a $5 service charge per order no matter what the size.  Save money by buying tickets together with friends.

How to Order

You can call the Blazers directly at 503-797-9637.  PLEASE MAKE SURE to tell them you're ordering for Blazersedge Night and that you want the tickets to be donated to the kids.  (Side Note:  We also have a block of tickets reserved for BE folks who want to attend.  You can buy seats for yourself if you wish.)  The Blazers accept all of the usual forms of payment.

You can also make a PayPal donation to blazersedge22@yahoo.com.  We will pool the money collected and purchase tickets with it.  You can donate enough for multiple tickets or even partial amounts...anything is welcome.

You can also e-mail me directly at blazersub@yahoo.com  if you'd prefer to send a check via snail mail.