Point Differential says Blazers are having a great season
by kickbrass on Nov 15, 2009 7:00 PM PST
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PrintI know that the title of this post is kind of duh around here, but I was just perusing the ESPN standings so far into the season and it gives a positive outlook for Blazers fans.
Looking at the all-important Point Differential statistic, we are sitting pretty at 2nd in the league at +8.3, behind only Boston's +10.2. Right on our heels, however, is Atlanta at +8.0.
Of course, this is a very "noisy" stat early in the season, and is inflated by our somewhat easy schedule so far. But compared to previous years, I think this is a pretty impressive predictor of success for our team. Look at all of the teams who have notched a Point Differential of above +6.0 so far:
Boston +10.2
Portland +8.3
Atlanta +8.0
Dallas +7.0
Miami +6.1
Not bad company to be keeping! Of course, teams like LA and Cleveland will probably climb up there soon enough, but we are off to a legitimately good start, "taking care of business" against bad teams by winning comfortably, and not getting blown out (cough cough L*KERS)
Of course, it also means that we're going to be seriously tested tomorrow by one of this season's hottest teams in Atlanta. It doesn't help that they're on their home floor, and we're coming to the end of a long road trip. Many pragmatists are already bracing for our first big loss of the season.
Our 8-3 record is nothing to sneeze at, but it's these Point Differential numbers that are really making me happy this early in the season. I remember even as early as last season having to sweat through nail-biters against awful teams, wishing that we had the wherewithal to blow them out of the water. If our recent exploits against Minnesota are any indication (and I think that they are,) then that shouldn't be an issue. That is the hallmark of a team on its way to being a contender.
I'm looking forward to seeing what happens tomorrow night, but either way we have a lot to be excited about so far this season, despite the injuries and other bad vibes that seem to be emanating across the fanbase.
(An aside: the Point Differential standings also suggest that a number of teams will be truly awful this season: New York, New Jersey, Minnesota and Memphis are already at -9.0 or worse! Minnesota leads the way at -13.8 thanks in large part to our two drubbings. Feel free to make fun of them in the comments below.)
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You said it all.
It’s going to be a “noisy” stat in the early going, but point differential is a better predictor of future success than win/loss record.
You won.
by Roybot on Nov 11, 2009 1:41 AM PST
Strength of schedule says ...
we’re probably not as good as a record, or our point differential, says we are right now.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/stats/rpi?season=2010&sortColumn=sos
"These are dreams that we have." --Rudolfo Fernandez
Egads, the Nets have the 3rd easiest schedule by that metric and they’re sitting at 0-10.
Our sched may be easy so far, but at least we have W’s out of it.
Ouch.
Maybe we should take Devin Harris off their hands.
--
by CaptainSexyJacob on Nov 16, 2009 3:16 PM PST up reply actions
Point differential is better than win/loss record for predicting future performance.
Better yet are systems that factor in point differential, schedule strength, like Jeff Sagarin’s ratings or Hollinger’s rating which aren’t out yet.
my magic 8 ball is the best.
"There are a few teams you have to watch out for in the fourth quarter."
"Yeah, but Portland definitely is not one of them."
-New Orleans Hornets broadcasters at the end of the third quarter with the Hornets leading 74-59. Portland later ends up winning 97-89.
"They don't mind him shooting that shot at all. Rudy Fernandez is not that great of a 3pt shooter."
-New Orleans Hornets broadcasters right after a Rudy Fernandez missed 3pter. Rudy Fernandez finished the game with three 3pters on six attempts.
by Tofu Anonymous on Nov 15, 2009 10:10 PM PST reply actions
It's going to drop to around +6 once we get creamed by Atlanta tomorrow.
"Ain't nothin' in this world for free."
Which, by the way, would equate out to about a 19 point loss.
Just an FYI.
"Ain't nothin' in this world for free."
which actually speaks to its robustness as a stat
when it takes that much of a blowout to move the needle two points, you’ve got a relatively stable number even this early in the season.
I was noticing their status in differential this evening as well. I think there’s a truism that wins tend to regress to the mean in close games (ie, over time it balances out and winning is more a case of fortune than skill), but blowouts show talent. In that context I think the diarist is spot-on—the games this week have all been affairs where the commentary was “we should be spanking by more than this” and “we are lucky to only be up X points,” rather than “geez, I can’t believe they’re LOSING to these schlubs!” And that’s where I share the diarist’s positive vibe: they’ve stepped up a notch to where they’re working to retain control and get to blowout stage, rather than trying to keep it even and sneak ahead.
And I thought Gerald Wallace would be the first real test of the 3-guard? He was held down way below what he used to do to us, and Brandon had one of his best games of the year. I do notice that it’s by far more effective with Oden, almost seems wasted offensively with Joel (sorry buddy).
Uh oh, I’m digressing.
this seems to be the consensus around here
But I’m not ready to write off our boys that easily. They’ll show up to play, and I think that will be enough to (at the very least) keep the game close.
Its a little misleading
Because this was true of last year’s team too. We had the most blowout wins of anyone in the league I think (defined as 20 points or more).
But if we can keep it this high all year we’ll do very well.
"Good evening Blazer fans, wherever you may be!"-Bill Schonely
Early on last year
I thought our point differential was a little shaky, most of our wins coming on buzzer beaters and the like.
I think that is true
It was when we blew out… I forget who, but we had a HUGE blowout win and it suddenly made our point differential match our record. And from then on we were point differential kings.
Mo—
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