FanPost

Updated Blazer Predicts

We're 7-3, and could have won any of the three games we lost, so that's very, very good. It's probably the record most of us expected out of the first ten games. It's a pace for 57 wins. I think it's safe to say that Bill Simmons prediction of regression will not come true - the team will be as good or better than last year. The excellent posts last spring detailing how teams perform by age showed that we were basically off the charts good for a young team, and that the squad would get better simply by aging in place.


That being said, I want to know how we finish the season, not how we start. But that's a little early. So let's look at the rest of November. I basically rate teams as "bad, good, or decent". Portland beats bad teams on any court, decent teams at home and sometimes on the road, and sometimes wins at home vs. good teams and overy so often wins over good teams on the road. Thats my criteria. So, coming up: 

@ Charlotte: W

@ Atlanta: L [this is being conservative, I actually the that Blazers will win this game]

Detroit: W

@ Golden State: W

Minnesota: W

Chicago: W

New Jersey: W

Memphis: W

@ Utah: L

That ends November at 14-5; on pace for 60 wins

Miami: W

Houston: W

@ Knicks: W

@ Indiana: W

@ Cleveland: L

@ Milwaukee: W

Sacramento: W

Phoenix: W

@ Orlando: L

@ Miami: W

@ Dallas: L

@ San Antonio: L

Denver: W(!)

Philadelphia: W

Clippers: W

That puts the Blazers at 25-9; on pace for 63 wins. That's amazing stuff. I view these things probabilistically, that is, a stray loss at home to Sacramento is just as likely as a road win at Dallas, for example, so hopefully that should work itself out.

Using the same methodology for Denver, they're schedule is even softer; I see them going 9-0 to finish the month and could very well go 12-3 in December. They have 10 road games (over 24 games), the only real challenge being at Portland and at San Antonio. That would put Denver at 28-6, on pace for a whopping 68 wins and a 2nd-consecutive NW Div. Championship.

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