Rudy's Minutes? If so, who suffers???

by irish3 on Oct 8, 2009 9:58 PM PDT Comment 112 comments

I see a lot of "Rudy will get 25-30 minutes," but I don't see a lot of intelligible theories as to how that'll happen and...

...I'd really like some thoughts on: a.) You think its really that cut and dried he gets that many, and ... b.) Whose gonnableed time because of it...it's not that easy. c.) Who will "willingly bleed" their time away like a good soldier, and d.) Is it even in PDX's best interest to "bleed" some of the other guys' time?

Oden/Pryz = 48 Minutes

LMA/Outlaw/Juwon = 48 Minutes

Batum (28)/*Webster(20)*/Roy(6) = 48 Minutes

Roy (24) Rudy (24) = 48 Minutes

Miller(30) *Blake(12)* Roy(6) = 48 Minutes

1st: This could work, but some problems with it, the most obvious to me is *do we really want Blake only playing 12 minutes?* Will Blake do it obediently? Is a backcourt for 6 minutes of Roy at PG, Rudy at SG, really that much better than the *smooth as butter* combo of Roy and Blake? Does this hurt Roy's energy levels too much having to guard a PG?

2nd: *Roy is skinny this year* Will he be as effective on D guarding SF's? Is it worth wearing him down a tad more to do it? Do we really want him guarding SF's for 6 minutes per game so we can have Rudy at the SG? I know the PER on that group is sick, but the defensive liabilities on that unit are pretty high too. Worth it? Worth having Roy get worn down? Is a healthy stud of an athlete like Martell, when you combine his defensive chops, really better to have off the court, just to have Rudy in?

I am curious as to what some astute observers think on the *Blake* and *Webster* conundrum in regard to Rudy...

and I AM RELAXED WRITING THIS, I AM NOT WORRIED ABOUT IT!!!!...but I would still like to hear some thoughts from people with some detailed knowledge of these things...

because I get the feeling that if Rudy's minutes dip beneath 24 he will not be the happiest camper...and I'm not even sure Blake is real happy with 12 minutes of action, *but the Rudy question is the focus*

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Kenny Vance did a segment on this "perfect storm" earlier today

He sees only 19-22 mpg for Rudy and Travis…and obviously they won’t be happy about it

WAW_10-08-09_Hour_3.mp3

http://www.955thegame.com/Shows/Wheels_At_Work/

Miller and Blake (combined) deserve 48 mpg, so do Batum and Webster. I said it all summer, Rudy will have to show significant improvement in his defense and ballhandlng skills just to hold onto the role he had last year. He’s not adept at defending PGs or SFs, and neither is Roy. And the Blazers don’t really need the extra offensive “juice” that Rudy provides, as much as the perimeter defense that Batum brings to the floor.

Here’s the dilemma. We all know that the time to develop players has passed, the “window” has opened and it’s time to win now. But still, how much are Nic and Martell going to develop their games if they’re playing less than 20 mpg? Something has got to give, there are two many young wings and the only way to get Rudy enough PT to keep him “happy” is to jury-rig lineups that are weaker defensively and force Roy to defend PGs and/or SFs every night. If Rudy isn’t going to be around in a year or two, what’s the point? Isn’t it better to play Batum as much as possible and integrate him into the game for as many minutes as he can effectively play?

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Oct 8, 2009 10:23 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm, I haven't watched enough Blazers games to feel 100% knowledgeable on this subject...

…but this just confirmed a lot of what I was thinking…it also seemed to me that the PG & SF positions shouldn’t necessarily see B-Roy take any time there at all…

it seems Rudy will be even less patient than Rexy because of their age difference, and I can’t imagine he’ll go into next offseason feeling good, bc theres a good chance he’d see even less time in the playoffs.

I have no doubt whatever minutes Rudy gives us this year will help with our regular season record, but his impact will likely be minimized in the playoffs if Webster & Batum continue to develop like they seem to be doing…

…I know the play of a lot of these guys in the first months of the season will determine a lot we don’t know now…

…but it’ll be interesting to see if KP finds a trade proposal he likes before the deadline is up this year and moves Rudy in a package with other stuff for a PF or PG or a Randy Foye combo type player…

I know we don’t need them to win 60 games, but I know KP likes to use his assets as effectively as he can

by irish3 on Oct 8, 2009 10:42 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

it’ll be interesting to see if KP finds a trade proposal he likes before the deadline is up this year and moves Rudy in a package with other stuff for a PF or PG or a Randy Foye combo type player…

If KP wanted to put Rudy and/or Travis together with the capspace this February, he could get just about any young player he wanted to get, as long the returning salary is around 2.2 – 5.5 mil

Rajon Rondo
Jason Maxiell
Aaron Brooks
Eric Gordon
Rudy Gay (supposedly KP likes him, don’t shoot me)
Mike Conley Jr
Marc Gasol
(the rights to) Ricky Rubio
Kevin Love
Ramon Sessions
Brook Lopez (drool)
Brandon Bass
Thaddeus Young
Jason Thompson

Are any of these players a better “fit” than Rudy? Would the GMs of their teams be willing to part for them for Fernandez and/or Travis? Would KP be able to extract an unprotected #1 draft choice out of these hypothetical deals? I’m just thinking out loud, here. My preference would be a quality big guy, like Maxiell, Gasol or Lopez (as if) But one of those young PGs would also be attractive, especially Rubio, who could develop overseas and join the Blazers about the time that Miller is getting ready to retire.

I realize for some folks this kind of conversation is heresy, Rudy is extrememly good and very popular. But there are only enough minutes to go around, and believe me, the last thing any of us want to hear is Rudy’s agent start making trade demands because his client isn’t getting enough PT or a “progressing in his role” If KP lets the situation degrade to that extent, then maybe all he will get is a “Randy Foye combo type player” in return, and that would be a complete waste of a valuable commodity

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Oct 8, 2009 11:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you're overrating with some of those options

Personally, I’d guess that Rondo, Lopez and Gordon would take a lot more, although Rondo’s really up in the air with everything that went on this summer. Lopez and Gordon have 2 and 3 years respectively on Rudy and both were comfortably 1st team all rookie guys, so I’d guess it’d take more than just Travis as a sweetener there, especially with Lopez since the Nets are starved of bigs and already have Lee, CDR, and Terrence Williams fighting it out at the wing.

Any of those PGs would be awesome, though I can’t imagine we acquire Sessions after passing on signing him, and I’d love Young or Maxiell, although the price seemsa little high for them. Still, I think that list pretty much nails the range of guys we’d be able to snag if we traded those two. Regardless of what some fans think, Devin Harris isn’t walking through the door for a package built around Rudy.

by Royster on Oct 9, 2009 12:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Regardless of what some fans think, Devin Harris isn’t walking through the door for a package built around Rudy

Well, I’m one of “those fans” but the main obstacle is salary, not talent. KP would have to throw in a player with a salary around 4 mil along with Rudy and Travis to make the money match up. (I’m not as interested in dealing Martell, Joel or Steve at this time.) Harris will be more of a “possibility” in a few years, depending on how things shake out with Brooklyn, etc. Reportedly, KP really likes him, so Devin will never stop being a “target” in my mind

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Oct 9, 2009 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not saying he's not a target

just that dealing for him will take more than Travis and Rudy, even if that worked salary-wise. He’s a legit all star, and I’m not sure you could say the same about Rudy or Travis’s ceilings. Besides, the Nets now have Lee, CDR and Terrence Williams all capable of playing the 2, it’s not like they’re looking for young off guards. Plus, they’re in great position cap-wise, have an insanely rich owner, and a young nucleus that fits him. Just doesn’t seem to be a lot of incentive.

I’ve always pulled for a Devin Harris move, I just don’t think the Nets will do it now.

by Royster on Oct 9, 2009 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd offer LaMarcus Aldridge as the main guy in a package to the New Jersey Nets for Brook Lopez.

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=yjckztd

A frontline rotation of Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla at the 5 along with Brook Lopez and Nick Collison at the 4 would be a hulking, traditional group of post players who could bring home a championship. Lopez, who had a 39% eFG% on jump shots last season (which consisted of 39% of his overall field-goal attempts), proved at Stanford that he can play the 4 successfully both offensively and defensively.

A young, defensive-minded shooting guard who’s very multi-talented such as Chris Douglas-Roberts would be perfect behind Brandon Roy. Unlike Rudy Fernandez, Douglas-Roberts would most likely be satisfied with roughly 12 minutes per game. That’d also allow Nicolas Batum and Martell Webster to receive all of the minutes at small forward, with Ime Udoka waiting in the wings as injury insurance.

Last but certainly not least, Keyon Dooling is a veteran combo guard with an array of skills who, unlike Jerryd Bayless, would likely be cool with being the fifth guard on a stacked team. Dammit, the thought of Porltand no longer being soft as Charmin by parting ways with Aldridge and Travis Outlaw for hard-nosed 4s (i.e., Lopez & Collison) — as well as finally having some semblance of much-needed roster balance — sends shivers down my spine.

Stupid people have stupid ideas.

by AK1984 on Oct 9, 2009 1:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

#12

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 9, 2009 1:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

In all reality, I know that LaMarcus Aldridge will be here for the long haul, I, however, will ...

nevertheless make one point abundantly clear, with that being if the Portland Trail Blazers win a championship or two during the next several years it’ll be on the backs of only two franchise cornerstones: Brandon Roy & Greg Oden.

That’s it.

Stupid people have stupid ideas.

by AK1984 on Oct 9, 2009 1:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Aldridge is borderline All star

he would have a lot to with a championship….

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 9, 2009 1:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's my projected 2010 Western Conference All-Star Team.

STARTERS
C: Amar’e Stoudemire
F: Tim Duncan
F: Carmelo Anthony
G: Kobe Bryant
G: Chris Paul

BENCH
C: Greg Oden
F: Pau Gasol
F: Dirk Nowitzki
F: Kevin Durant (Ugh!)
G: Brandon Roy
G: Tony Parker
G: Steve Nash

As much as I hate the one-dimensional Kevin Durant, his gawdy scoring numbers will probably get him on the squad due to imbecilic coaches who don’t appreciate defense and advanced statistical metrics. The same could go for Al Jefferson, too, although the homer in me — yes, even I’m sporadically affected by the homerism bug — gives Greg Oden some love here.

Also, I expect Amar’e Stoudemire will be listed as a center on the ballot. So, even if Yao Ming is somehow voted as a starter by dumb Chinese fans in spite of his injury, there’ll be an adequate replacement for him. Additionally, Tim Duncan can continue to carry on the façade that he’s a power forward.

Stupid people have stupid ideas.

by AK1984 on Oct 9, 2009 2:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with most of your all star predictions..

i dont like steve nash though, i would put d-williams ahead of nash.. but thats just a personal opinion. when looking at the power forwards, Aldridge is not far behind.. West was an all star last year, and I personally think Aldridge is better than west.

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 9, 2009 2:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

since your not as much of a LMA homer as most...

Do you see his role declining much do to Oden and Miller and the offense that they will bring?

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 9, 2009 2:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If we run the offense through Oden

Aldridge is going to see a lot of wide open 15 footers, I expect. If he makes them, his role won’t decrease.

Miller should help him get more fastbreak buckets, because he runs the floor better than just about any PF in the league.

I can tell you how to make an Excel spreadsheet that proves Portland wins 62 games this year.

by jscot on Oct 9, 2009 2:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you're overstating these potential fast break opportunities, ...

since the Portland Trail Blazers will always be a slow-paced team — no matter its point guard — under Nate McMillan. Regarding this topic, I do stand by some of my earlier remarks and bold prediction about pace.

“As long as Nate McMillan is guiding the ship, y’all are having a pie in the sky pipe dream if you folks think the Portland Trail Blazers’ pace won’t be in the bottom fifth of the NBA.

Yeah, I’m sure Kevin Prtichard has tried to push McMillan into upping the tempo. Yet, even with the GM breathing down his back and Andre Miller now on the team, there still won’t be any run-and-gun basketball in Oregon — unless y’all check out the UO women’s basketball team led by Paul Westhead — with "Sarge" making only tiny, incremental adjustments at best apropos of sporadically running a conventional fast break."

Anyway, moving over to your comment about “wide open 15 footers,” I’m not a big fan of LaMarcus Aldridge 41.8% FG% on two-point jump shots. Personally, I’ll take Greg Oden’s 59.5% FG% — which composed 90% of his field-goal attempts — on inside shots every single time.

Stupid people have stupid ideas.

by AK1984 on Oct 9, 2009 2:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

you probably are not going to be a fan of Oden's jump shot eh?

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 9, 2009 2:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nope, Greg Oden must develop a 10 to 12 foot baseline jump ...

shot to become a more versatile player offensively. Oden, without a doubt, can’t rely strictly on a back-to-the-basket repertoire to be a well-rounded scorer in the NBA.

Besides, if Oden wants to make me look golden in my prediction that he’s basically the second-coming of Patrick Ewing, then he must soon develop a more refined short-range face-up game.

Stupid people have stupid ideas.

by AK1984 on Oct 9, 2009 3:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

Your opposition to LMA’s jumper is silly, though — Duncan and Bosh and Garnett and lots of good big men have a jumper.

LMA’s problem is not the open 15 footer, but the 20 footer, the fact that he doesn’t occasionally pump fake and take it to the hoop, and that too much of his game is the outside shot.

But I hope he gets and shoots a lot of wide-open 15 footers. It’s the 20 footers we can get rid of.

I can tell you how to make an Excel spreadsheet that proves Portland wins 62 games this year.

by jscot on Oct 10, 2009 6:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

As of this season, LaMarcus Aldridge should lose touches to Greg Oden.

Andre Miller should have a bunch to do with Oden’s progression, although on the whole the big guy must be further integrated into the offensive game plan. No matter how anyone slices it, Oden would be a much more efficient second option than Aldridge.

Regarding David West, he totally shouldn’t’ve been a two-time NBA All-Star. West, who has the same problems with offensive inefficiency and mediocre defense as Aldridge, should thank his lucky stars for having Chris Paul as a teammate.

Lastly, I chose Steve Nash over Deron Williams due to the inflated numbers the Canadian/South African wizard will post under Alvin Gentry’s fast-paced run-and-gun offense.

Stupid people have stupid ideas.

by AK1984 on Oct 9, 2009 2:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you could pick though, would you choose Nash over D-Will?

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 9, 2009 3:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hate the idea of Nash getting the vote because he is in a stat boosting system.

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 9, 2009 3:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If I had my choice, I'd select Chauncey Billups over both of them.

Stupid people have stupid ideas.

by AK1984 on Oct 9, 2009 5:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I forgot about him...

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 9, 2009 5:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

D-Will is a stud.

He is the Jazz’s B-Roy. Take him over Nash and Chauncey any day, and maybe even CP3. He’s that good.

by LCCblazer on Oct 9, 2009 5:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

CP3 will be voted in by the fans.

D-Will should get the coach’s nod if he stay’s healthy.

"BEER IS LIVING PROOF THAT GOD LOVES US"
- Benjamin Franklin-

by We-B-Dunkin on Oct 9, 2009 5:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would put the chance that KP deals a Rudy + Travis package this year at <1%

They won’t bring in another “name brand” player this year. Especially not a point guard, that ship has sailed for the next 2 years. In the past 2 years KP was extremely cautious at the deadline. I could imagine a move of Travis or Martell for a clear backup PF, but even that seems not very likely at the moment.

"I think he can still play" - Kevin Pritchard on Juwan Howard

by Norsktroll on Oct 9, 2009 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like your playing time breakdown, but

I would drop Roy for 4 of those minutes at PG and give them to Blake. As well as another 2 minutes of Andre at point. The man deserves it, and Roy can use all the rest he can get up until the playoffs.

This leaves up with:

Roy: 24M @ SG
2M @ PG
6M @ SF (you could swap the last two depending on match ups)

Blake: 16M @ PG

Miller: 28M @ PG

That’s how I would do it, but I am certainly no NBA coach.

Chuck Norris' tears cure cancer. Too bad he has never cried.

by FiveOhThree-RipCity!! on Oct 8, 2009 11:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Relax. Don't worry about it.

by dario argento on Oct 8, 2009 11:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Don't worry, be happy

You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.

by austinpwnz on Oct 9, 2009 8:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Batum might see 20 minutes, but not 28

I predict about 20 for Batum, 18 for Martell, with the rest of the 3 minutes being split among Travis and Rudy (Brandon will probably play the 3 on defense during Rudy’s time). Also, Andre Miller will play more like 25 minutes a night, with Blakey getting 20, and 3 minutes there going to Rudy as well. I see the following being approximately right:

Greg: 26 minutes
Joel: 20 minutes
LaMarcus: 36 minutes
Travis: 20 minutes
Nic: 20 minutes
Martell: 18 minutes
Rudy: 23 minutes
Brandon: 36 minutes
Miller: 25 minutes
Blake: 20 minutes

If you ever hear of someone punching out a girl scout and stealing her Samoas, it was me
- Mortimer

by Clevelander among roses on Oct 9, 2009 12:17 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Oops

Decrease Travis and Nic’s minutes by 2 each, both to 18. That makes the math right, I think.

If you ever hear of someone punching out a girl scout and stealing her Samoas, it was me
- Mortimer

by Clevelander among roses on Oct 9, 2009 12:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I predict... fewer mpg for everybody, so nobody feels slighted...

Or at least I hope… that with this depth, we don’t need BRoy or LMA for 36…
My ideal? Nobody over 30…

Greg 28 Joel 20
LMA 30 Howard 10 Travis 8
Nic 20 Martell 18 Broy 10
Broy 20 Rudy 28 (Broy and Rudy on the court together for 10 mpg)
Dre 26 Steve 14 Bayless 8

This gives us a (very) solid 8 players with between 18 and 30 mpg. Steve, Juwan, Travis and Bayless are part of the mopup crew in the blowout 4ths…

And it gives us an incredibly well rested, versatile, and difficult to defend team going into the playoffs.

Blazers: RUN away with the title!

KP: Please don't trade the next decade's Scottie Pippen (Batum), Spanish Larry Bird (Rudy), Bill Russell (GO) or Captain BRoy - at least until they 3-peat..

by Visionary2 on Oct 9, 2009 12:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Does anyone know a freeware photoshop program

where I can put a picture of Travis on a milk carton?

caption “MISSING…Has anyone seen my playing time?”

Take one of those wings players out, and the resulting minutes/roles would be tolereable. Take 2 out, and everybody else would get as much as they want, and Ime could fill in the gaps in case of injury. Leave the roster as is (and assuming no injuries) for a month or two? Vance said it today “that’s a recipe for disaster” Say what you will about Kenny, but he’s been around the NBA for awhile and has seen how “too many players, not enough minutes” can turn into a team that produces less than the sum of it’s parts.

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Oct 9, 2009 12:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

gimp

www.gimp.org

Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash

by HurraKane212 on Oct 9, 2009 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The team we are playing against.

*Unless KP has a secret plan that makes this statement incorrect.
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by staylost on Oct 9, 2009 12:41 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

my thoughts

point guard- Miller 30 (he averaged 36 a game last season, I dont think he would average much less that this) Blake- 18 (he was the starter last season and played amost 32 minutes a game last season. This is a significant reduction of minutes)

shooting guard- Roy 32 ( He averaged around 36 a game last season, the fewer minutes he has to play, the better) Rudy16 (he averaged around 25 minutes a game last season)

small forward- Batum and Webster- 24 each (i dont think they will split the minutes right down the middle like that, but its debatable who should get more, so I will leave that up to nate, but I do think that they should take ALL of the minutes between the two of them)

Power Forward- LMA 32 (he played around 36 last season, but it would be nice if could play less) Outlaw 16 ( he played around 26 last year)

Center- Greg as much as foul trouble will allow him to play… the rest goes to joel.

Since the topic of the fanpost is Rudy’s minutes, you will notice that he can only get 16 minutes with everybody sticking to there position. If he is going to get more minutes, they will come from the point guard spot. There are 2 (3 if you count Outlaw) very capable small forwards, so there is no reason to play Roy or Rudy at small forward. If Rudy is going to take some of the point guard minutes, or Roy and Rudy plays the sg, then Blakes minutes are going to be very few. If Rudy was to play 25 minutes (what he did last season, and he wanted to play more) you would have to cut Blakes already less than last years minutes in half; for Rudy to get 25 minutes, Blake will play 9 minutes… That is not worth it for Blake and I am sure he would not be happy with that few of minutes. If the back up point guard is only going to need to be able to play for around 10 minutes a game, they might as well get rid of Blake and play Bayless.

So, if you pull one player out of the rotation (Rudy) it would solve a lot of problems. Batum and Webster could cover back up sg minutes, along with Bayles…. But, Rudy is one of my favorite players on the team, so this sucks…

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 9, 2009 12:53 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't think Webster will see nearly as many minutes this season

Nate will use him situationally, but on average the minutes will still go mostly to Travis and Nico. And I think the “Rudy at PG” experiment will get buried after pre-season. He is a capable passer from the shooting guard position with Roy or Miller next to him as the facilitator, but not the kind of player to bring the ball up court or defend the opposing PG for long stretches. He will get his minutes in more combos with Roy, mostly as a 3 on offense and against the 2 on defense.

"I think he can still play" - Kevin Pritchard on Juwan Howard

by Norsktroll on Oct 9, 2009 4:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Roy and Rudy play well together

I predict fourth quarter line-ups with Miller/Blake, Rudy, Roy, LA, and Oden. Other possibities include Roy, Rudy, Travis, LA and Oden, or Miller/Blake, Roy, Rudy, Travis, LA

If you ever hear of someone punching out a girl scout and stealing her Samoas, it was me
- Mortimer

by Clevelander among roses on Oct 9, 2009 8:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Funny that Irish3 didn't include Outlaw getting any minutes... and there's still a crunch

I think Nic will probably play about 18 minutes a game this year. Webster, about the same or less.

One thing that will almost inevitably help this problem is injuries. Guys will miss games, which will allow more people to play long enough to find a rhythm.

by PoliSam on Oct 9, 2009 6:47 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

He gave backup PF minutes to Howard or Outlaw, meaning probably Outlaw.

You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.

by austinpwnz on Oct 9, 2009 8:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sadly Travis and Rudy are done in Portland.

Greg (as a starter) and Joel get 48.

LMA and Juwan or a player to be named later get 48.

Nic gets 30 minutes and starts. Martell gets the rest of 48.

Brandon (32+) and Blake get 48 at SG.

Dre (30+) and Steve get 48.

Joel, Martell and Steve complete an excellent 8 man rotation.

Jerryd and one more big get scraps.

Travis and Rudy might turn into a serviceable PF backup still, but mostly they will turn into draft picks.

Bedge or go home.

by Ojala John on Oct 9, 2009 8:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Rudy has the potential to be the 4th best player on the team

He’s not going anywhere.

by tominhawaii on Oct 9, 2009 9:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

last year he was the "3rd best"

at least, according to you and Canzano

Nic is going to pass him up, pretty soon. Rudy has offensive skills, but Batum is the more all-around player. The main problem remains: Roy and Rudy only really can guard SGs and it’s a stretch to extend them to defend PGs or SFs.

An unneccessary stretch, as far as Brandon is concerned

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Oct 9, 2009 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rudy was rated in the top 20 shooting guards by Pelton and Hollinger. I.e. he would be close to being a starter on a number of teams. Nic is still a bit behind that, but funnily rated 1 better than Hedo. Same with Travis, both around top 30 on their position. Martell is a great outside shooter but not a great defender or inside scorer, hard to predict where he stands but so far not in that region. Having Rudy and Roy on the court isn’t great on defense either, but makes up for it on the offensive end with more versatility. Roy is competent enough against most small forwards, and Rudy against most shooting guards. If they need a defensive “stopper”, Nic will be on the court.

"I think he can still play" - Kevin Pritchard on Juwan Howard

by Norsktroll on Oct 9, 2009 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Even though Hollinger predicted he would be in the top 20 SGs this year

He is still underrating Rudy because PER significantly undervalues the contributions of 3-point shooters.

by trk on Oct 9, 2009 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also overrates scoring, and defense isn't a box-score stat, so Nic gets shafted

You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.

by austinpwnz on Oct 9, 2009 8:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I heard the DW podcast, too

Comparing Rudy with the rest of the league’s 2 guards to rate his “worth” on Portland’s roster isn’t really relevant, because he’s only going to get to play 12-14 mpg at that position, as long as Brandon is healthy. For Rudy to get enough PT to become the “20th best SG in the NBA” Roy will have to play SG or SF for 15-20 mpg, and that’s not in Brandon’s (or the team’s) best long-term interest

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Oct 9, 2009 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Some advanced statistical metrics had Rudy as the 2nd best player last year

the conventional wisdom is that Aldridge was the 2nd best player, but due to his relatively low efficiency Aldridge scores poorly on most metrics.

Greg looks like he is turning into a beast, so right now I expect Oden to be the 2nd best player this year and Rudy the 3rd best.

by trk on Oct 9, 2009 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rudy is going to have a very hard time finding minutes this season,

I dont think you can put him above LMA. Rudy will be fourth at best. LMA is close to being an ALL star and you could not say the same about Rudy. LMA easily top ten at his position, and again, you can not say the same about Rudy. Last season Rudy was a 3 point specialist; I have a hard time seeing somebody who had such a limited role last season becoming a better option that LMA.

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 9, 2009 11:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not everyone considers LMA top 10 at his position

LMA isn’t especially good at rebounding or defense and doesn’t get a lot of assists. He does score a decent amount, but does so with an eFG% and TS% that are below the league average. I would probably rank him in the top 15 power forwards right now but not the top 10.

by trk on Oct 10, 2009 12:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

name 10 power forwards better than him...

dirk
duncan
pau
bosh
west (maybe)
boozer
Amare
kg
who am I missing?

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 10, 2009 1:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Josh Smith
Rasheed Wallace
Al Jefferson
Troy Murphy
Antawn Jamison
Rashard Lewis
Elton Brand (if healthy)
Paul Millsap (maybe)
Luis Scola (maybe)

by trk on Oct 10, 2009 1:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wanted to know which ones were better than him lol.

josh smith can dunk and…. and…..
wallace is getting old and is not even going to be a starter
Rashard lewis is basically a small forward but i will give you that one
luis scolla gets owned by LA except when he has to hep with yao
Al jefferson is a center mostly
paul milsap is a reserve
I dont know much about troy murphy so he cant be super impressive
antwan jamison… is a pretty small power forward…

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 10, 2009 2:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Troy Murphy had a great season last year

He became the first player in NBA history to be top 3 in both 3P% and rebounds. He doesn’t score quite as much as Aldridge, but his efficiency more than makes up for it.

Wallace and Millsap may be coming off the bench this year, but they are still better than most starters.

Josh Smith has a higher eFG% and TS% than Aldridge, and is a significantly better defender.

by trk on Oct 10, 2009 3:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Portland was going to bring in milsap to back up LMA...

josh smith can block shots yes. He is a terrible free throw shooter and he does not shoot a much higher fg% than LMA 48 vs 49… All in all, I would still rate LMA higher than those 4 guys. Oh, and LMA shoots a better fg% than Murphy. and scores a lot more.

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 10, 2009 4:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, and LMA shoots a better fg% than Murphy. and scores a lot more.

LMA gets 2-point per shot, but half or Murphy’s shots are 3’s.
Murphy TS% = .614 eFG% = .580
Aldridge TS% = .529 eFG% =.486
That’s a huge gap in efficiency right there, and Murphy also has a huge advantage in rebounding.

by trk on Oct 10, 2009 4:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

so you would take murphy over aldridge?

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 10, 2009 4:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

sounds like Murphy's play makes Jeff Foster expendable

hmmmmm

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Oct 10, 2009 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ohhh

I forgot about Miller!! Rudy will be 5th best on the team at best. I would put Roy, Oden, Aldridge, and Miller ahead of him….

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 10, 2009 1:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure what I did to you, to make you use my name in the same sentence as Canzano, but whatever it is, I am sorry.

That was ever so hurtful.

by tominhawaii on Oct 9, 2009 5:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

the two of you came to the same conclusion, independently

After Beijing, John said that Rudy was going to be the 3rd best Blazer scoring option

And you probably have long forgotten our “Rudy is going to play alongside of Roy in the backcourt” debates, in the spring of ‘08. I’ve always come down strong on the defensive side of these discussions, because defense wins championships.

Rudy is a great offensive player, who is “cursed” by being on a team with Roy. Portland doesn’t “need” Rudy’s offense as much as they need Batum’s perimeter defense. Only the Webster injury kept this situation from coming to a head, last season. Now Martell is back, Nic has a whole lot of upside and there’s no more leeway for Rudy to get his minutes playing SG while Brandon defends SFs.

Get a plunger, the Blazer’s wing position is “backed up”

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Oct 9, 2009 7:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I remember the Rudy/Roy playing together debate

It kept getting convoluted because the argument always went from “playing together” to “starting together.”

Last year, I don’t know who we could put in front of Rudy after Roy and LA. This year we can probably put Miller. Oden is more valuable and should get better. I think it’s safe to say Rudy is at least the 4th best player on the team as it is now. He’ll still be better than Batum or Bayless for at least two more years.

"The lineup that has cleverly been referred to as R-A-M-B-O (Roy, Aldridge, Miller, Batum, Oden) was more like Bambi." - Jason Quick regarding the lamest acronym in the history of the world

by tominhawaii on Oct 11, 2009 8:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm, can't seem to post on the list of guys we might get at the top of this page...

But I’d bet opposing teams value those dudes a lot more than a Rudy/Outlaw package…particularly so beause Outlaw will be a FA this year, and some of them aren’t really desperate for a SG…

…from listed, seems one of the best potential options might be Brandon Bass…even if we have to wait for him to be eligible to trade this year…

…with the way Orlando likes to lineup shooters around Superman, its easy to believe they may enoy the idea of using Outlaw as a 3pt shooting reserve for R. Lewis, and moving Vince to the SF for extended periods, bc he could defend that position at 6’6, 220lbs (albeit, he won’t really guard any position if history holds) for some time while Rudy mans the SG position…

…it also solidifies them at SG during the Howard years, as Vince will be 33 this January…

…not sure if Bass for Outlaw & Rudy if fair compensation, but it might be the best we could do, and maybe we’d even get Redick packaged with Bass, lol

by irish3 on Oct 9, 2009 8:48 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I feel I must say it again, I AM NOT WORRIED...

…the insider knowledge KP has on Freeland will say a lot about the moves he makes…

…but it is nice to think how we can turn a “sick” team into an even better team if we play our cards right, so I’ll say it again, it’ll be interesting to see what KP’s “end game” is…

…bc as good as we are, it seems there will still end up being somewhat of a significant move in the next calendar year…

by irish3 on Oct 9, 2009 8:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’d bet opposing teams value those dudes a lot more than a Rudy/Outlaw package

Well it depends on the team and the player. But I think Bedgers actually “devalue” Rudly and Travis’ trade value, because most dont want to see them dealt Rudy has a great contract, Travis has an expiring deal. Both are very valuable and if KP put them together in a proposal there aren’t a lot of young star players who he couldn’t (at least) get “in the conversation” for, around the league

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Oct 9, 2009 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Only possibility I might see brewing for Rudy to stay in KP's mind is...

B-Roy has gotten lighter…bc Nate no longer wants him to play SF at all…

and thinks B-Roy could play 15 minutes of effective backup at PG during the playoffs without wearing down, while Rudy plays SG at that time…

this would entail essentially getting rid of Blake…playing a little Bayless in the regular season at PG…

and having a playoff rotation at guard that might look a tad like this…

PG: Miller (35) Roy (13)
SG: Roy (26) Rudy (22 minutes)

Between extra minutes in the regular season, and 22 solid minutes on a championship team during the playoffs, that might be enough for Rudy to keep him happy…

…would help explain Roy’s “skinniness”

by irish3 on Oct 9, 2009 9:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

this would entail essentially getting rid of Blake

Roy/Nate/KP hold Blake in a lot higher regard than most Bedgers do. “Irreplaceable” pass-first PGs are usually not fully appreciated, until after they’re gone. KP traded Steve once and regretted it, I doubt he’s going down that road, a second time

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Oct 9, 2009 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1150947/index.htm

Article from January, but makes it sound like a Conley for Rudy trade as a principle deal, would be a lot more beneficial for the Grizz than I thought…

…never knew Mayo was so short

by irish3 on Oct 9, 2009 10:39 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I've always thought

Rudy will be the odd man out. In his mind, and along with his agent, he wants to be a major player. I just don’t see that happing here. As portland matures,as they put more of an emphasize on defense, I think they will move further away from him, and Outlaw, who will both be traded for a backup PF.

by MotoMan045 on Oct 9, 2009 11:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

That would have be one heck of a backup 4

I suspect a nice draft choice would be coming Portland’s way in that hypothetical deal

Agree about Rudy and his agent opting for greener pastures, but since he’s tied into his Blazer contract for 3-4 more years, he’s going to have to “request” a trade to be moved along. Playing time and “important role” conflicts are his ticket out of town, and as KV said yesterday, this “perfect storm could be brewing” with the roster logjam at the wing positions

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Oct 9, 2009 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

too much worry....

…over something that isn’t there. couple of rumours about unhappy agents and you want to trade him? apparently rumours pass for fact.

rudy values role as being of primary importance and has said so in interviews all offseason. in his second year, he would prefer to have a bigger role. being the creator for the second unit with blake as the spot up shooter (which is what nate is trying to eventually manufacture) will satisfy this desire, irrespective of his minutes (which will most certainty be in the 24 to 28 range). statistically, roy and rudy were amazing together last year. even with roy’s weight loss, their production when on court together will mean plenty of minutes for rudy. looking at some of these minute projections, i’d probably take a few off batum (18 is more likely than 20+) and webster. webster is not going to get the minutes some want (expect?) him to (again around 18).

way too much conjecture and spectulation over what rudy wants/thinks. maybe worry about this when rudy plays 3 or 4 regular season games with just 15mpg. personally believe that webster, blake, bayless and outlaw will be going way before rudy. no matter who goes, it would be nice to see them shine elsewhere. kp and nate know what they have. right now, we have a talented player on a cheap contract that can do so much for the roy/oden/aldridge core, not just now but in the future as well. lets enjoy it.

by Evanescent on Oct 9, 2009 4:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

couple of rumours about unhappy agents

Rudy was unhappy with his role last fall and was nearly traded to Phoenix, for Shaq. (Believe it, or don’t) A Bedger heard this "rumor’ directly from a “legendary” Blazer source

Last July, there was a published article that Rudy was concerned about his PT and role if Hedo was brought to Portland. (Rudy talked about this during media day, as well.)
It’s not made up, but nothing’s imminent, either. Just don’t get blindsided if you read or hear about Rudy being unhappy with his minutes/role during the coming months.

Webster is better than you think. Not because I said so, it’s based on comments from Blazer coaches, during camp. It’s possible that “webster, blake, bayless and outlaw will be going” before Rudy, but none of those players are so clearly “blocked” in their future PT/role by Roy at SG, like Rudy is. And it’s not going to be easy to convince me that Brandon or Rudy can defend PGs or SFs well enough to play alongside of each other for 15-20 mpg in a championship-caliber 8 man playoff rotation

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Oct 9, 2009 7:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rudy for Shaq, huh?

That would have been good. Buy Rudy from Phoenix for $3 million, then send him back for Shaq (plus RLEC, presumably). So Shaq is worth $3 million, is what it comes down to. LOL.

It would solve the constant calls for a third center, anyway. I doubt he’d like playing behind Greg and Joel, but everyone’s career winds down somewhere. And he’d get a ring with yet another team. :)

By the way, Big Z is talking about retirement. http://www.cavsnews.com/20091009-2531.php. And rumors of him going to GS for Jackson. If that happened, Turiaf might become available if we made the right offer. And Cleveland would probably win it all this year, if they added Jackson. They’d be thin at the big positions, but would have so much firepower it probably wouldn’t matter, as long as Shaq stayed healthy.

I can tell you how to make an Excel spreadsheet that proves Portland wins 62 games this year.

by jscot on Oct 10, 2009 6:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

it was out there

“Heymoe” dropped by on June 30th and said he heard it straight from a “legendary Blazer” spokesman that the Shaq offer was made (by Phoenix, I presume) and voted down 5-3 by the Blazer’s brass

I’m not saying that I wanted Shaq (that was Dave’s take, IIRC) I’m just using this anecdote as an example of how Rudy will not be content “parking” outside the 3 point line on offense and waiting for a kick-out pass from Miller, Roy, etc. And I think that Nate’s "new idea’ of letting Rudy handle the ball more is an attempt to keep the Spaniard “more involved” on the offensive end, so he doesn’t squawk about being unhappy with his role

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Oct 10, 2009 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Turiaf might become available if we made the right offer

Who knows the mind of Don Nelson? If he likes Outlaw’s game enough to deal Ronny for Travis, that deal would take care of Portland’s need at backup PF. I’d feel a lot better with a LMA/Turiaf frontcourt (if Joel or Greg were to go down) than a Howard/LMA combo

Turiaf >>> Collins

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Oct 10, 2009 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wouldn't happen unless they did the Big Z trade, though

I don’t see them trading Turiaf unless they get another big.

I can tell you how to make an Excel spreadsheet that proves Portland wins 62 games this year.

by jscot on Oct 10, 2009 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why does Rudy deserve 25 min per game?

I have the completely different take on the minutes “problem” Neither Martell, Batum, Rudy or Outlaw has consistently produced at more than a slightly better than average rate. All of those players have been inconsistent, they’re all young etc… make your favorite excuse but we need consistency and better production. Our problem is not having someone we can count on every night to fill those minutes.

by billsfan4life on Oct 9, 2009 4:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Most 3's by a rookie ever

That is kinda good.

by Jacksonville on Oct 9, 2009 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rudy is a killer

That’s what separates him. You can argue that Travis and Webster show that characteristic, but Rudy exudes it. Good point about consistency, though.

by LCCblazer on Oct 9, 2009 6:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am not worried about minutes

because if we do begin to run there will be plenty of opportunities to score. Nate didn’t want the team to run the last couple of years due to turnovers from lack of maturity. The team is ready now to explode and will push the ball after defensive rebounds.

For this reason the players will be satisfied, get their points and playing time. Roy can play less minutes and still score the same. This may be true for LaMarcus as well. The Blazers depth will allow the players to rest more.

by KA-Oregon on Oct 9, 2009 6:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Here are my minutes predictions:

This assumes that the current roster remains as packed is it is now and that all players don’t see as many minutes as they might if the roster were less packed.

Roy – 33.3 MPG in 76 games
Aldridge – 31.8 MPG in 80 games
Fernandez – 26.7 MPG in 78 games
Oden – 26.6 MPG in 73 games
Miller – 25.4 MPG in 81 games
Webster – 19.9 MPG in 75 games
Batum – 18.8 MPG in 81 games
Outlaw – 18.4 MPG in 77 games
Blake – 18.2 MPG in 78 games
Przybilla – 17.8 MPG in 78 games
Bayless – 9.3 MPG in 56 games
Howard – 8.4 MPG in 59 games
Cunningham – 4.9 MPG in 47 games
Pendergraph – 4.8 MPG in 16 games

BTW: Here’s a link to my full predictions for the Blazers this season:
My full Blazer predictions as the roster sits now

"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY

by Storyteller on Oct 9, 2009 7:10 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

This seems very reasonable.

Sort of a compromise on everything.

I don’t really like the idea of having Travis, Martell and Nic all in the same position of ‘playing but not being a clear starter’. I think Batum should get at least 25 mpg or so, at their expense, but I am a big Nic homer so who knows.

You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.

by austinpwnz on Oct 9, 2009 8:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's not enough PT for Batum, Webster and Travis

There’s no way to slice the bologna so these guys get enough to eat and Rudy stays happy

There’s only 2 ways out of this corn maze, a lopsided deal or another major injury

And I’m not rooting for door #2

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Oct 9, 2009 9:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed.

by irish3 on Oct 9, 2009 10:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's my scenario for Rudy to get as much as 28 minutes,

although it will probably be closer to 26 minutes based on match-ups at the end of close games.

From another thread:

It could work something like this:
1st/3rd Qtr

0:00 Blake, Roy, Batum, LMA, Oden
6:00 Miller, Roy, Webster, LMA, Oden
10:00 Miller, Rudy, Webster, LMA, Joel

2nd/4th

0:00 Miller, Rudy, Webster, Outlaw, Joel
4:00 Rudy (or Blake), Roy, Batum, Outlaw, Joel
7:00 Miller, Roy, Rudy (or Webster/Outlaw/Batum in 4th), LMA, Oden

Roy – 36
Miller – 30
Blake – 12 (could expand to 15-18 at expense of Rudy getting PG minutes)

Rudy – 28
Batum – 18
Webster – 20

LMA – 34 (But probably 36-38 minutes in close games)
Outlaw – 14

Oden – 30 (as fouls permit)
Joel – 18

Batum/Webster time could easily be swapped, or distributed more heavily to one player than the other as we find out who “wins” the playing time.

Rudy’s time flexes a lot in 4th quarters with match ups and hot hands.

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Oct 8, 2009 12:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Oct 9, 2009 10:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I still dont get this

The blazers have 3 solid small forwards!!! There is no reason to play Roy/Rudy at small forward unless the goal is to get more time for Rudy, who basically just shoots 3’s (which is what he did last season). Defense wins games! and putting Roy/Rudy out of positions affects defense. There is talented players to cover every position there is no reason to put players out of position on a regular basis.

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 9, 2009 11:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I won't argue the point, I'll let Nate do it for me.

Last year Batum (the defensive specialist that you say wins games) played 18 minutes per game. Rudy played 26 minutes per game, while Brandon played 37 minutes per game. Therefore, Rudy and Roy played about 15 minutes per game together. Why didn’t Nate give those 15 minutes to Batum instead of Rudy? Apparently, Nate didn’t agree with your position. He thought Rudy would contribute more than Batum so he played Rudy instead and we won 54 games.

If you prefer stats (I’m not a big fan of these type of stats myself) you will see that 4 of the 5 top 5-man combinations with the highest Win% for the team last year (82games.com) included Rudy, and none of the top 5 included Batum. The top combination, and 3 of the top 5, included Roy, Rudy and Blake together in a “3-guard” lineup.

So what I’m advocating is to start with what worked so well last year, giving Rudy about 25-28 minutes with similar lineups to last year, but including Miller for Blake, which should get Rudy even more open looks. Plus give Batum and Webster about 20 minutes each. Then assess the results after a month or so. Either Batum or Webster will probably begin to stand out enough that one of them will deserve a bigger share of the 38-40 minutes remaining at SF.

If Rudy’s contribution should fall off significantly, then reduce his minutes and prepare to trade him next summer. One of Rudy, Webster, or Batum will eventually have to go. I simply advocate giving them all reasonable minutes this year, in a manner that was so successful last year, and seeing who the two keepers turn out to be.

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Oct 10, 2009 12:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nate has already said this season that the focus was defense.

Batum showed that he could be affective offensively while playing europe. 3 pointers are overrated as expressed in the miller vs. blake debates that use to go on. which is better, somebody that has an edge offensively or somebody that could take that edge away from top sg and small forwards in the league? If you have somebody who can give K*be problems… Play them, not just 18 minutes a game. The reason that Batum played such few minutes is because the Blazers were struggling for offense so he would get pulled to put Outlaw in the game for instant offense. Rudy is expendable with 2 solid point guards and 3 solid small forwards. It would not be smart to play people out of position to keep 1 person happy with minutes. I know Rudy is one of everybodys favorite players (including mine) but they should not compromise defense for a slightly better offense. Its not necessary this year with the added offense that Miller and Oden will produce.

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 10, 2009 1:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would argue that 3-pointers are underrated

Teams that shoot lots of 3-pointers tend to be much more efficient offensively than teams that don’t. Players that shoots lots of 3’s tend to have much better +/- numbers than otherwise similar players who don’t. 3-pointers are very valuable and so are players who shoot a lot of 3-pointers with a high 3P%.

by trk on Oct 10, 2009 1:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

sure

but defense is better than three pointers in my opinion.

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 10, 2009 2:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

3 pointers are great....

but there are so many players on the team that can hit the three ball. threes can get a team in trouble when playing on the road. The Blazers need to play better on the road this season and to improve that, they need to play more defensively minded, and Batum and Oden are the key to this.

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 10, 2009 2:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

let me correct myself..

Oden and Batum are the key to defense, but the ENTIRE team needs to buy in to it.

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 10, 2009 3:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you'd find that Nate says the focus is on defense every year.

I don’t think blanket statements such as “defense is better than three pointers” is all that helpful in deciding which players to play. The only thing certain is that the team that scores the most points wins. So it comes down to which players produce the greatest net contribution in various combinations with their teammates.

That’s were individual match-ups can determine who plays. There may be instances where you need the better outside shooter and passer, and other instances where you need a better defender at a particular position. That’s why my scenario says “Rudy (or Webster / Outlaw / Batum in 4th)” and “Rudy’s time flexes a lot in 4th quarters with match ups and hot hands”.

Anyway, Nate has the only opinion that counts. We will find out how it all works out in the next few months.

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Oct 10, 2009 4:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I give up

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 10, 2009 4:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

ok I lied

In order for this team to improve from last season, they need to win on the road, and in the playoffs. When you are playing at home and you have the crowd behind you, 3 pointers flow, but when you are playing on the road, they are less likely to be as consistent. That is why this team was not very good when playing on the road. They rely way to heavily on jump shots. In order for this team to improve, they have to play better defense, which will improve their road record. Come playoff time, if Portland is still relying on three point shooting, against better defensive teams, they are looking at another first round exit.

Yes it is true that the team that scores the most wins, but good defense leads to easy buckets and less points by the opposition.

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 10, 2009 4:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like the Idea

of NOT trying to score more than your opponent, but trying to keep your opponent from scoring as much as you.

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 10, 2009 5:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Our road record had nothing to do with poorer 3-pt shooting

When you are playing at home and you have the crowd behind you, 3 pointers flow, but when you are playing on the road, they are less likely to be as consistent. That is why this team was not very good when playing on the road

On the contrary, we actually shot 3-pointers better on the road than at home.

Home – 37.3% 18.6 attempts per game
Road – 39.4% 18.7 attempts per game

We only gave up 0.8 ppg more on the road than home. But we lost on the road because we scored 8.8 pts fewer on the road than at home, even though our 3-pt shooting was better on the road,

Home – Blazers 103 ppg Opponents 93.6 ppg
Road – Blazers 94.2 ppg Opponents 94.4 ppg

Of course better defense can also improve offense. No one would deny that. But it wasn’t our defense, and it wasn’t our 3-pt shooting, that let us down on the road,

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Oct 10, 2009 8:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I give up trying to convince you...

The truth is, the blazer need to play better defense to improve upon what they did last year… we have added offense with Miller and a healthy Oden. Defense is what is going to increase road wins and bring the team closer to a championship. If you dont agree than there is nothing I can say to convince you and you should probably be a Phoenix fan.

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 10, 2009 8:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed, and I'll quit trying to convince you

that the player combinations that produce the greatest net point differentials win the most games,

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Oct 10, 2009 8:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

^^ Agreed that you should quit trying to convince me.

I don’t agree that improving defense at the expense of point differential will increase wins.

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Oct 10, 2009 9:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I could not help myself

How does playing Batum more minutes to improve defense, negatively affect point differential? Has it been tried yet this season? I think not. Not a fan of improvement? Or trying new things? Not going to give Batums improved offense a chance before deciding that it will have a negative affect on the team?

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 10, 2009 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rudy will most likely not be a long term player in portland

there is already a super star shooting guard. Batum could be a long term small forward, and needs the playing time to prove it. 18 minutes is nothing. that is about what he averaged last season.

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 10, 2009 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting stats

Just curious, do you know how our efficiency compared home and away? Net numbers don’t necessarily tell the story.

I’m guessing that our road problem wasn’t shots dropping, but not being able to get into the paint. You don’t get as many calls on the road, so if you take it inside and get banged around, you won’t score as much inside and you won’t get the free throws, either.

I would guess the biggest home/away differential is free throws attempted and made.

I can tell you how to make an Excel spreadsheet that proves Portland wins 62 games this year.

by jscot on Oct 10, 2009 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Correct. Our efficiency dropped ...

dramatically from 119.9 at home to 103.4 on the road. Foul shooting was a piece. We had 3.2 fewer points from foul shots on the road. Our field goal percentage also dropped from 47.4 to 45.3 despite the higher 3-pt percentage, We made about 3 fewer FG’s on the road.

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Oct 10, 2009 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's a huge dropoff in efficiency

You would expect it in 3 pointers, so if it isn’t there, you certainly want to figure out why….

I can tell you how to make an Excel spreadsheet that proves Portland wins 62 games this year.

by jscot on Oct 10, 2009 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

we"ll just have wait and see

if the return of Webster and the improvement of Batum alters McMillian’s rotations from what he did with Roy and Rudy, last year. You think Rudy’s role will be unchanged, I think he’ll have a tougher row to hoe to get those 25+mpg. So far the preseason has shown us nothing, because Nate is “resting” Fernandez and Batum.

I agree with jpaulson that despite the highest Win% stats leaning towards the 3-guard lineup, playing PG-Rudy-Roy is not a playoff defensive advantage for Nate, unless the opposing team is also playing 3 guards together, or 2 guards with a smaller SF who doesn’t post up. Batum and Webster are going to be better options defending playoff-cailber small forwards.

And finally, as good as Rudy is for the Blazer’s offense right now, I think we can’t take our eyes off the future. Nic is the future starting SF for Portland, and if he’s only averaging 18-20 mpg that’s going to stunt his development. I’d rather have a great perimeter defender playing alongside Roy at the 3, then having Brandon defend PGs and/or SFs every night to carve more minutes out of the rotation so another SG can play enough to be happy.

If we’re both of the opinion that Rudy is eventually going to have to play in another NBA market to reach stardom, then why take minutes away from Batum, this year? That seems like a shortsighted and Espana-phobic response to the problem, to me

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Oct 10, 2009 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

You know I respect your opinion,

but I see it a little differently and we’ve covered this ground before.

i don’t think Rudy’s role will be entirely unchanged. I think he has to show more ability to handle the ball and create. It has clearly been Nate’s stated plan to find out if he can do that. Obviously Rudy thinks he can, and we have seen examples of his passing abilities, but not an ability to handle the ball effectively yet.

As for playoff defensive disadvantages —I said in my scenario above that started this discussion that Rudy/Roy time at SF is matchup dependent, whether it is the regular season or playoffs. The fact that it worked so effectively last season, as evidenced by the Win%, suggests that it will continue to work frequently this season. But certainly there will be match-ups where we want Nic’s defense more than Rudy’s offense, just as we did at times last season. You just have to wait and see what those match ups are and how well our players are playing at the time. Recall that Batum played very poorly in the playoffs last year, while Rudy actually shot a higher percentage in the playoffs than he did during the regular season, and eventually started a game (not his best game though) in place of Nic, Clearly Rudy is much more experienced and proven to perform in big games, on big stages, than Nic or Martell. So those intangibles also come into play during the playoffs.

Of course this year Webster may also be a factor in taking that playoff time. So again, I’m not assuming anything about playing time on a specific game basis with specific matchups. My scenario was simply a target template that assumed there would be deviations due to best matchups. Hence, I don’t see any disagreement here.

We also don’t disagree about Nic. I’ve said repeatedly that I think Nic will be our SF of the future, although he needs to prove that. Again, my suggested scenario has Nic and Webster equally sharing about 38-40 minutes initially to start the season, and then the minutes get distributed more heavily to the stronger player as we find out who “wins” the playing time. I would think the minutes would probably be shared something like 25-15 as the year plays out. I don’t think 25 minutes is going to stunt Nic’s 2nd year growth if indeed he is the stronger player. That’s approximately the time played by Rudy and Outlaw last year.

I don’t agree with you that we already know that Rudy must be moved to another market. I believe it is too early to know which of our wings, Rudy, Webster, or Batum, should be moved. We need to determine which of them will contribute the least for us in the long haul. Rudy has only had one year of NBA experience, same as Batum, and Webster is coming off a full year of injury.

So let’s let this season play out. Let’s see if Webster’s foot recovery is lasting, and let’s see what he can do on the court this year. I’m certainly not convinced by his play in his last full year that he will be better for us than Rudy or Batum. Let’s see how much more Rudy can do in his 2nd year of NBA experience. Quite possibly we can’t fit him into our long term plan even if he improves greatly. But if he does improve greatly he will have even more trade value next summer as a starter that simply can’t get playing time here.

I think Batum is a no brainer to stay, but let’s see his development this year. We can get Webster, Batum, and Rudy sufficient minutes and opportunities this year to show KP and Nate who we really want for the long haul, and using a 3-guard lineup for 10-12 minutes in most games was our strongest lineup last year. If it’s not a very strong lineup for those limited minutes this year, then we can simply eliminate it if that happens. Nate is not one to continue a plan very long if it isn’t working.

So this was my scenario to sort out the log jam while still putting the best team possible on the floor as we find out what that is, I’m sure Nate will do something different, but I hope it accomplishes the same goals, Then next summer we will be in a great position to make the right decision and also know what we really need in return for a trade.

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Oct 10, 2009 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

my suggested scenario has Nic and Webster equally sharing about 38-40 minutes initially to start the season, and then the minutes get distributed more heavily to the stronger player as we find out who "wins" the playing time

I’ll extend that to incude Rudy. If Nic and Webster outplay Fernandez at the SF (or in other words, make it “unnecessary” for Nate to shift Roy to that position, as it was last year) then their mpg could be closer to 25 and Rudy’s could shrink to below 20. I don’t expect any of these players to be happy with that scenario. But the main reason that Rudy doesn’t “fit the future” as well as the other two is that he must defend SGs to be effective, and they are true SFs. Rudy’s progress is directly blocked by Roy, while Batum and Webster’s PT doesn’t “have” to be affected by Brandon

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Oct 10, 2009 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't really think

that 18-20 mpg stunts a guy’s development. He’s getting practice, he’s watching film, he’s getting substantive court time to put it into place. He’s playing 1600 minutes over the season, while a star college player might play 1000, and will develop a lot.

10 mpg stunts a guy’s development, because he never plays enough to get into a rhythm.

Not saying I wouldn’t be glad to see Nic get more minutes than that, but I want to win, and there’s no reason to worry about his development. He developed a lot last year playing that many minutes.

I can tell you how to make an Excel spreadsheet that proves Portland wins 62 games this year.

by jscot on Oct 10, 2009 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think I figured out the minute crunch!!

Oden is just going to get opposing centers to foul out every game, and then we can play a smaller lineup and get the players the minutes they want… but joel is screwed in this scenario.

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 10, 2009 2:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Nate has kind of answer the question about Rudy's minutes

If you read Ben’s piece “In Managing Andre Miller, Nate McMillan Looks to His Own History” you can find why Rudy is going to play more minutes than most people here expect. Quoting the article:

McMillan drew a parallel between his situation and that of one current Blazer in particular. “I understand how players feel…. I can moan about [my role] or I can go out and play and make the coach put me on the floor, which is what Rudy [Fernandez] is doing,” McMillan said, “He’s going out and playing. We’ll try to find a way to get him more minutes because he can do certain things on the floor.” McMillan went on to further compare Fernandez’s situation with his own, “I ended up getting more minutes by playing point guard, off guard, I would play guard with Gary and Gary would move to the 2. I would be at the point. I played some 3. Having that versatility, the bottom line was, ’I’m going to make this work. And I’m going to make Payton better.’” Hence the talk about moving Rudy to the point or perhaps going small and using him at the 3, to somehow play Rudy alongside Brandon Roy.

by Manu on Oct 12, 2009 1:37 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs