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NBA.com's Annual Survey of General Managers


In the midst of discussing the Blazers' inaugural pre-season contest you might be interested in checking out NBA.com's annual survey of NBA General Managers.  Much like the census bureau or an over-eager first date, they put a ton of questions to the league's GMs.  Then, much like the census bureau or an over-eager first date, after it was all over they blabbed about it to everyone in the universe.

Not every GM responded to every question.  Percentages are based on the responses given, not the number of GMs overall.  I believe the Honorable Mention occurs if even one GM (possibly your own Edit:  Can't do that.  I'm relieved.) puts your name down, so bear that in mind.  Still, it's as good a look as we can get at the collective wisdom of a bunch of guys who base their livelihoods and reputations on knowing the game inside and out.

A few of the general questions to whet your appetite before we talk about the Blazers specifically:

Which team will win NBA Finals 2010?

  1. L.A. Lakers - 60.7%
  2. Boston - 17.9%
  3.           Cleveland - 17.9%
  4. San Antonio - 3.6%

Last year: L.A. Lakers - 46.2%

Which team will win the Eastern Conference?

  1. Boston - 50.0%
  2. Cleveland - 42.9%
  3. Orlando - 7.1%

Last year: Boston - 74.1%

 

Which team will win the Western Conference?

  1. L.A. Lakers - 75.9%
  2. San Antonio - 24.1%

Last year: L.A. Lakers - 66.7%

 

Who will win the 2009-10 MVP?

  1. LeBron James, Cleveland - 69.0%
  2. Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers - 17.2%
  3. Dwight Howard, Orlando - 6.9%

Also receiving votes: Tim Duncan, San Antonio ; Dwyane Wade, Miami

Last year: LeBron James - 55.6%

 

Which team made the best overall moves this summer?

  1. San Antonio - 71.2%
  2. Orlando - 17.3%

Also receiving votes: Cleveland , Toronto , Washington

Last year: Philadelphia - 51.9%

 

Which team will be most improved in 2009-10?

  1. Washington - 48.3%
  2. L.A. Clippers - 17.2%
  3. Oklahoma City - 13.8%
  4.   4.   Toronto - 6.9%

Also receiving votes: Boston , Memphis , Minnesota , San Antonio

Last year: Miami , Portland - 25.9%

 As you can see, the Blazers got no mention in any of these categories.  Where did Portland show up?

The biggest category was Northwest Division victor, where the Blazers edged out the Nuggets 42.9% to 39.3% (which is pretty much 1 vote).  The Jazz ended up with 17.9%.

As you just saw, nobody predicted the Blazers to win the Western Conference Finals nor (obviously) the NBA Championship.

The Blazers got no votes for best offseason acquisition but they did tie for 4th (with five other teams) for the most underrated offseason acquisition in Andre Miller.

Portland finished 3rd with the L*kers behind Cleveland and Utah for best homecourt advantage.

The Blazers got no mention for best offensive or defensive schemes.  In fact they did not show up anywhere in the defensive categories period, team or individual,

On the plus side Portland got an honorable mention as the team that's most fun to watch.

The Blazers fared a little better in the individual categories, but not much.  The most striking result was three Blazers getting honorable mentions as being the most likely to have a breakout year.  Those three were Greg Oden, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Brandon Roy.  One wonders how much farther Roy can break out, or whose notice he has escaped.

Brandon Roy also got honorable mention for best shooting guard in the league, which was probably the most prestigious individual accolade a Blazer received in this survey.

Rudy Fernandez didn't get any votes for best international player but he did finish first in the Most Likely International Player to Have a Breakout Season category.  Nicolas Batum got honorable mention in that same category.  Evidently somebody somewhere thinks everybody on the Blazers will bust out big time this season.  The only thing missing was a Przybilla vote.

Six coaches were listed as possibilities for best coach in the league but Nate McMillan was not among them.  Nate did get an honorable mention vote in the category of Best Manager/Motivator.  14 names were listed as possibilities for most valuable assistant coach but no Blazers were among them.

Brandon Roy made honorable mention in Best Basketball IQ.  Nobody cast a vote for him as the player you'd want shooting with the game on the line though...which seems like a significant omission from here. 

No Blazers got any votes in the categories of Best Leader, Best Finisher, Player Who Forces Opposing Coaches to Make the Most Adjustments, or Best Pure Shooter.  Depending on your definition some Blazer shooting guards could have certainly qualified.

And that's about it.  If nothing else it's interesting to see the forest perspective when we've all but chained ourselves to the trees.  If you had to sum up an impression of the Blazers from this survey it would probably read "Interesting...perhaps intriguing...but not yet distinctive or elite."  Portland certainly got more mentions than average or low-end teams but not as many as Blazer fans would want.  Overall it seems like a reasonable assessment given where the team is and what it's accomplished.  Perhaps next year's survey will feature more (and higher) mentions.

The link above will take you to the survey index page from which you can peruse all of the questions and responses.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

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Until we win there . . . .

"Either way we have two phenomenal units. I'm excited to play with either one." - Martell Webster

by lee3022 on Oct 6, 2009 11:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Glad to see you Dave.

One correction:

I believe the Honorable Mention occurs if even one GM (possibly your own) puts your name down, so bear that in mind.

It’s specifically noted in the article that GM’s cannot vote for their own folks, in the italics section:

General managers were not permitted to vote for their own team or personnel.

Figured you might want to knock that part of the post out.

by Timmay! on Oct 6, 2009 10:32 PM PDT reply actions  

Thanks!

I struck it through.

—Dave

by Dave on Oct 6, 2009 10:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Loved this and definitely agree:

If nothing else it’s interesting to see the forest perspective when we’ve all but chained ourselves to the trees.

by krizzikinz on Oct 6, 2009 10:36 PM PDT reply actions  

No "Best NBA Blog" category?

"Is it always like this?" Collins said after the scrimmage. "It was like the first game of the NBA playoffs or something."

by Y5k on Oct 6, 2009 10:38 PM PDT via mobile reply actions  

This is officially old news

Just got back from the game…………………………..

Blazer fans: Prepare to meet Mr. Greg Oden. I mean the real Greg Oden.

Last year? Let me tell you what last year’s Greg Oden was:

1. The ugly duckling.
2. The caterpillar in the cocoon.
3.Cinderella scrubbing the floors
4. Peyton Manning year 1

Very soon, Greg Oden is going to rock the NBA. No brainer. Book it.

What I observed from the big man tonight changes everything every GM has said, written or talked about up to now.

Wow.

The Oden Era, Day 841

by Heymoe on Oct 6, 2009 10:49 PM PDT reply actions  

He was awesome tonight...

I was always on the Oden bandwagon…never got off. But just as I refused to believe the criticism, I’m not yet fully on board that Greg is 100x better than last year. I think he’s young, will take some time to develop and will still have his ups and downs. But he’s clearly no “bust” and will have significant impact for the good on games. He is and will be a difference maker, and in a couple of years, he may even be the best center in the game.

by BlazerNation on Oct 7, 2009 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

Probably accurate that no division has 2 double digit likely winners but NW has 3

It says a lot that more see Blazers winning.

"Either way we have two phenomenal units. I'm excited to play with either one." - Martell Webster

by lee3022 on Oct 6, 2009 11:02 PM PDT reply actions  

Is it possible...

Are we still Flying Under The Radar??? I mean, relatively few individual accolades, and no team accolades… I mean, if GM’s aren’t that worried about us, then that makes me a happy, happy man.

"Don't put anything crazy in the papers. I'll find out who you are." -- Andre Miller

by Jeremiah S on Oct 7, 2009 12:52 AM PDT reply actions  

We here in the Pacific NW could care less about your stinkin’ poles!!

The magic # is 0!!!

by nuggz503 on Oct 7, 2009 2:52 AM PDT via mobile reply actions  

This should be a FanShot

"I think he can still play" - Kevin Pritchard on Juwan Howard

by Norsktroll on Oct 7, 2009 3:27 AM PDT reply actions  

LOL

As author of Da BOM (Blazer Optimist Manifesto), I hereby certify that we will win 62 games in the regular season. Disagree at your peril.

by jscot on Oct 7, 2009 5:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'm ready to cast my vote

for defender least surprisingly most overrated by NBA General Managers.

by Epimenides on Oct 7, 2009 4:34 AM PDT via mobile reply actions  

2 years ago

"I think he can still play" - Kevin Pritchard on Juwan Howard

by Norsktroll on Oct 7, 2009 7:25 AM PDT up reply actions  

I proceeded to immediately ignore this survey after Boston were revealed as favourites to win the Eastern Conference.

I could have sacrificed goin' out
To think my homies who did it, I used to joke about
From now on I'ma use self control instead of birth control
Cause $315 ain't worth your soul
$315 ain't worth your soul
$315 ain't worth it

by The Pirate on Oct 7, 2009 6:46 AM PDT reply actions  

Breakout?

    Interesting. But as far as Brandon Roy being poised for a “Breakout” season? While I think he can improve, and with the improvement of himself and the team perhaps gain a higher profile among the N.B.A. elite, I hardly would call Brandon worthy of the definition of about to “Breakout”. All Brandon has done since entering the league is Rookie of The Year, All-Star, All-Star…..? That’s pretty “Breakout” already if you ask me.

   I’d even be a little insulted if I was Aldridge. He’s been very consistent. I guess I just see “Breakout” as being a player or players that significantly increase their personal contribution to their respective teams. So I think you could apply that definition to Oden, since I think he could really “Breakout” or expand his role this season. But I think it’s clearly too late to apply that definition to Brandon. Once a guy has been Rookie Of The Year and a two time All-Star isn’t it too late for him to “Breakout”?

   As a Blazer fan, the more I look at the results the more unsettled I become. Seems like The Blazers are being evaluated at arms length to “success”. We are the potential division winners being afforded the least respect.

   Getting so much most likely to breakout attached to your team and players IS kind of a cop out and insulting. So if Brandon, LMA and Oden…and thus The Blazers really “Breakout” and have a great season and a great post season, all these GM’s can go back and say, I knew The Blazers were poised to breakout….

   But conversely, if for some reason Brandon, LMA or Oden were to struggle or The Blazers underachieve in light of local preseason expectations then all these most likely to “Breakout” predictions just get forgotten.

   I’m probably just being a typical Homer fan, but I think The Blazers deserve a little more respect. Unfortunately, to really get GM’s and a lot of the rest of the N.B.A. evaluating world to recognize it looks like we will have to make the playoffs and advance…..if that’s breaking out? So be it….I think it is going to happen and if it comes as too much of a suprise to anyone then they haven’t been paying attention to what has been building here the past few years.

  Plus to continue my rant just a little longer….Can’t McMillan get a little respect? Olympic Team, plus since he’s come here each year has IMO offered nothing but a changing but incredible challenge. A team in transistion, based on youth that went from Zach Randolph centered….to Brandon Roy and a real total team mentality. If you look at the past 3 years what coach yearly faced more challenge and has expedited success and gotten the most out of their team? Honorable mention as a motivator? Keep it…McMillan deserves at least to be in the running with the other coaches as one of the leagues best.

  This season McMillan once again faces a new challenge. Now expectations are as high as they have ever been, and he still has a young roster but now one that is considered incredibly deep. So if he is able to keep harmony, find a succesful balance, and coach The Blazers to 2nd round or Finals will somebody at least consider that maybe he is more than just a good motivator?

   Seems to me almost every season McMillan has coached The Blazers has come with more than your average # of challenges and a whole bunch of landmine built in excuses or reasons The Blazers could fail. This is really the first season where it’s a little bit the opposite inwhich The Blazers are generally expected to succeed. So far McMillan has done nothing but helm The Blazers re-emergence and development of youth masterfully. So like Brandon Roy, at some point I ask what must McMillan do just to get recognized as one of the better all around coaches in the league?

  As a Blazer fan I don’t like to be too paranoid or small town thinking, but sometimes I think we could be hoisting The Trophy and pouring champagne in celebration of a championship and just then and only then would some of the N.B.A. world wake up and go….Hmm…The Blazers might be pretty good….

"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"

by Krang on Oct 7, 2009 7:16 AM PDT reply actions  

Well, now

If Brandon plays like MJ in his prime this year, that would be a breakout.

If LMA plays like Duncan in his prime this year, that would be a breakout.

Nate should have had COY one of the last two years. He’s done a phenomenal job.

As author of Da BOM (Blazer Optimist Manifesto), I hereby certify that we will win 62 games in the regular season. Disagree at your peril.

by jscot on Oct 7, 2009 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

Breakout doesn't mean first good season

it means first good season brought to the attention of the media

by blacknoiseNW on Oct 7, 2009 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah

But the media doesn’t think Brandon is a super-duper-super-star, so it would wake them up if he had a year like that. The media doesn’t give LMA a whole lot of credit yet, either.

As author of Da BOM (Blazer Optimist Manifesto), I hereby certify that we will win 62 games in the regular season. Disagree at your peril.

by jscot on Oct 7, 2009 11:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

The key to remember, Blazer fans.....

…is that perceptions always trail reality. Think of how many references we saw to Jail Blazers 2 years ago, after the turnaround had already begun.

Same thing going on here. Until the Blazers actually win something (other than the right to draft 1st), the team has nothing more than the dreaded “potential”.

"I'm a man, but I can change.....if I have to......I guess." - Red Green

by antediluvian on Oct 7, 2009 7:33 AM PDT reply actions  

To be honest, I really don't care what others in the league ...

… think of us right now. They are predestined to be in the same category as those people who step off the curb without looking and thus get run over by a bus.

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Oct 7, 2009 1:44 PM PDT reply actions  

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