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Full Court Press

To all the high school teachers reading this during your plan period, what's up! Do us a favor and go set all the library computer default homepages to Blazersedge.com.  Appreciate it.

John Hollinger updated his player capsules for the season.  Here are some of his thoughts on Brandon Roy. It's time to cancel your newspaper subscription and sign up for ESPN Insider.  

Roy doesn't get star billing nationally, but with another season like the one he had in 2008-09, that will change in a hurry. After the game's six uberstars -- LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant,Chris Paul, Dwight Howard and Tim Duncan -- Roy stood head and shoulders above the rest. 

Roy almost topped Bryant in PER, finishing a close third among shooting guards. Roy fared better on a per-possession basis, posting a superior TS% and assist ratio, as well as a lower turnover rate. Because Roy didn't generate as many shots, however, Bryant beat out Roy for second place by 0.38. 

Roy handles the ball exceptionally well for his size and often played point guard. He managed to post the fourth-best pure point rating among shooting guards when he wasn't scoring the ball himself. He did that, of course, with great frequency, pumping in 24.3 points per 40 minutes by scoring from every zone on the floor. He was adept at drawing fouls, ranking ninth among shooting guards in free throw rate, and he is a strong shooter from both mid-range (42.4 percent on 2s that weren't at the basket) and 3s (37.7 percent). 

Roy was also 16th at this position in rebound rate, and only nine players had a lower rate of fouls. As luck would have it, one of his two disqualifications came in the final minute of the crucial Game 3 playoff loss to Houston.     

John Hollinger also serves up positional PER projection rankings, which are as follows...

  • 1 -- Andre Miller: 13
  • 1 -- Steve Blake: 35
  • 1 -- Jerryd Bayless: 60
  • 2 -- Brandon Roy: 3
  • 2 -- Rudy Fernandez: 19
  • 3-- Travis Outlaw: 18
  • 3 -- Nicolas Batum: 28 ---> (Hedo Turkoglu was rated 29...)
  • 4 -- LaMarcus Aldridge: 8 --> (Channing Frye is 52)
  • 5 -- Greg Oden: 5
  • 5 -- Joel Przybilla: 33

Dwight Jaynes has some great post- Fan Fest thoughts. Here are a few...

When you see all that talent on the floor, you realize that this team is loaded. Really loaded. It's going to be next to impossible to get all these guys enough playing time.

...

The battle for a starting job that's the easiest to call? Of the three we've previously talked about, I have to think it's the one at center. It's seems to be important to Greg Oden that he start and that's going to play into McMillan's decision. But keep in mind, Oden was the No. 1 player taken in the draft. He'ssupposed to start. And really, there's no other place for him because of the importance he has in the team's future. And come on, the way he's played so far makes it an easy call. Unless he takes a big dip downward in the exhibition season, or suffers some sort of injury, he's simply got to be the starter.

Wendell Maxey on the 5 spot...

Applying McMillan's theory, that spot goes to Joel and deservingly so. But if you base it off potential, Oden is your man. What he did on Sunday - showed off the typically turnaround hook and good hands - is just the beginning of a fresher and hungrier Greg particularly if you believe the offseason and early camp reports.

That we won't know until Greg goes up against guys not named Przybilla, Juwan Howard or Jarron Collins. We won't know until we fully see his face-up game, if he can stay out of foul trouble, if he moves his feet and defends, and how he works and passes out of double-teams.

That test will come all season long.

Joe Freeman has a Fan Fest recap...

A majority seemed to be wearing Blazers jerseys, prompting general manager Kevin Pritchard to wonder, "Have you ever seen so many Blazer jerseys?" Random fans waved and shouted hello to Pritchard, who waved back, smiling ear to ear and soaking in the scene. 

"This is nuts," he said.     

Joe Freeman quotes Martell Webster on the starting 3 spot in his Fan Fest notebook...

"I'm just going out there and having fun, really," Webster said. "Whatever the result is after this training camp, it's great either way, no matter who gets the starting position.

"I hope (Batum) gets it. Honestly. To tell you the truth, I hope he gets it. I think he'd be a great starter on this team. For me, it's just about making sure I'm ready when my name is called, whether that be starting or coming off the bench. Either way we have two phenomenal units. I'm excited to play with either one."     

Brian T. Smith's Fan Fest recap has a nice line from Jarron Collins. Hope those in Utah are reading...

Collins spent the first week of Portland's training camp backing up centers Joel Przybilla and Greg Oden. Prior to Sunday, all Collins had seen of Blazers basketball was the inside of a practice facility in Tualatin, Ore.

But Collins got a first-hand look at Blazermania on Sunday. And the NBA veteran was stunned.

"Is it always like this?" Collins said after the scrimmage. "It was like the first game of the NBA playoffs or something."    

A solid observation from Kellex at Blaze of Love...

 Is it just me, or does it feel like everyone in Portland is blatantly pulling against Andre Miller aside from Nate McMillan?  The Tweets, some media, and even fans seem to be outright cheering for Steve Blake to get the starting nod and minutes over a guy that has been a part of the elite class of point guards in this league for 10+ years now.  At some point I'll stop writing these posts, but for a city that seems so inviting and accepting, you all don't seem to want to accept a guy that is likely the missing piece to taking this franchise to the top.  I'm hearing complaints that he was on cruise control and not at full speed yet Roy and Aldridge were simply going through the motions yet no one seems to mind.  And handing the MVP award to an exagerrated 11 assists and a hot shooting night to a guy in the middle of the toughest battle on the team doesn't make a whole lot of sense coming from the organization.    

I can't speak for everyone involved but I do think there are some people rooting for Blake to keep his job.  I think one factor that's going under-reported here is the fact that Blake is no longer battling a shoulder injury that was troubling him during the playoffs.  Watching him shoot the ball last night was totally different from watching him shoot down the stretch last season.  So with that said, not only did Blake arrive in camp in great shape his shot is looking better than almost anyone can remember (attention spans are short in the media, perhaps shorter than the average person's).  So I think those factors are combining to give Blake a bump here.   

John Hollinger addresses a question in his chat that we're thankfully hearing less and less...

Chris (Indianapolis, IN)
Hi John. Doesn't the Blazers situation seem similar to the Bulls from a couple of years ago, in that they have a lot of young players, have tasted the playoffs, but are facing a lot of possible contract/playing time squabbles that might eat into chemistry?

John Hollinger  (3:09 PM)
Similar, but enough differences to think it will play out differently. First, those Bulls were overachievers with a grinding head coach in Skiles -- McMillan isn't like that. Second, the key guy in Portland already has his money, and Aldridge may very well have his by the time the season starts.    

Mike Barrett with a training camp story...

Toward the end of practice Saturday morning, during a drill which involves a three-on-two situation at one end, that turns into a two-on-one at the other, Dante Cunningham decided to challenge Oden at the rim. Oden cuffed the shot attempt in his right hand, and then took off with the ball. Cunningham, in a full sprint (and isn't a slow guy), couldn't catch Oden, who dribbled coast to coast and slammed the ball down with two hands. While maintaining professionalism, the players erupted. Oden, who hung on to the rim and swung completely under, landed, and while laughing, flew up into the air and did a full body bump with Martell Webster. Even the coaches were smiling, as the drill continued, with the next group of players, without missing a beat.

SJ from Rip City Project with a great line...

it's getting more difficult to not get swept up into the hype associated with this season. I think Blazermania might be stronger than the swine flu right now. We're talking about 16,000+ for a scrimmage!! Color me impressed Rip City. Although is it bad that the cynic in me is wondering how many of these are bandwagon fans and how many of them will be looking to jump off on the first 2-game losing streak? Yeah, it is.    

The guys at Bustabucket.com got to the Fan Fest early, scoring some choice courtside seats and taking a bunch of pictures and video.  Sheed writes..

Andre Miller was going about 35% while the rest of the team was going 75%. Andre really doesn't want to be there, but I'm down with that. I'd rather he got ready for the regular season.

Bustabucket.com also has some eagle eyes: they got a picture of this controversial duo

Casey Holdahl has a full Fan Fest picture gallery.

Sean D. sent in this highlight video of Dante Cunningham's college years

Checking in on a Blazersedge legend, Michael Wallace of the Miami Herald writes...

Shavlik Randolph will be difficult to cut if he defends the way he did Sunday. The former Duke big man drew two charges in five minutes    

That link comes via the great people at Hoops Hype.

What did I miss? Drop it in the comments.  And be sure to frequent the Fanshots.

-- Ben (benjamin.golliver@gmail.com)

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Comments

Display:

Roy will get national recognition

When we win at least one playoff series this season. He’s never going to be a very showy player. I love that Roy, like no one else I’ve ever seen, can score a “quiet 25 points”.

But I don’t care either way, we know he’s awesome, that’s all that matters to me.

"Good evening Blazer fans, wherever you may be!"-Bill Schonely

by skywaker9 on Oct 5, 2009 10:35 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

4 — LaMarcus Aldridge: 8 —> (Channing Frye is/always was 52 irrelevant)

blah blah blah blah lame comment - lame commenter

by Bandwagon Butcher on Oct 5, 2009 10:43 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Greg Oden ranked 5th among centers was surprising to me

Hollinger’s projections are high on him.

I am crossing my fingers hoping he can stay on the floor.

I get the paper, so I don't care!

by Name's Ash on Oct 5, 2009 10:47 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Jefferson, Bynum, Duncan

As author of Da BOM (Blazer Optimist Manifesto), I hereby certify that we will win 62 games in the regular season. Disagree at your peril.

by jscot on Oct 5, 2009 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Should note that

PER doesn’t measure defense. If Greg is top 5 in PER, he’s going to be so far ahead of Jefferson in defense that we’re talking top 4. And Duncan is allegedly a PF instead of a center.

As author of Da BOM (Blazer Optimist Manifesto), I hereby certify that we will win 62 games in the regular season. Disagree at your peril.

by jscot on Oct 5, 2009 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

it will be interesting if Duncan's listed as a C on the all-star ballot this year.

Without Yao, he may finally admit he’s a C.

Oden will make the all-star team if he stays healthy, plays 30 mpg (which will be awfully tough given his foul trouble and Joel’s presence) and the Blazers win at least at the rate they did last year, unless Duncan is listed as a C and Bynum also outplays Greg, which is certainly possible.

by jksnake99 on Oct 5, 2009 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think you pretty much nailed it

If Duncan is listed as a center, it’s a joke. Will he go back to being a PF next year?

As author of Da BOM (Blazer Optimist Manifesto), I hereby certify that we will win 62 games in the regular season. Disagree at your peril.

by jscot on Oct 5, 2009 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think Oden's got a better shot

There’s a high likelihood Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant will be taking up all-star spots that they didn’t last year, meaning things are going to be awfully tough for Aldridge.

Meanwhile, Shaq and Yao are out of the West C picture, meaning that even if Duncan’s a C, Bynum will be the only major competition for Oden at backup C, should he stay healthy and out of foul trouble (which is, admittedly, a major if). If Duncan’s an F, Oden’s got a much clearer path to the ASG than Aldridge.

by jksnake99 on Oct 5, 2009 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't see Durant getting in until the Thunders at least

are over .500 the previous season. There are just too many outstanding forwards in the West whose teams are making the playoffs. Check the forwards on last year’s West roster:

  • Pau Gasol
  • David West
  • Amare Stoudemire
  • Dirk Nowitzki

This year, barring injury, Pau and Dirk are locks again. Amar’e probably is. West might not be, but look who’s waiting in the wings:

  • Carmelo Anthony
  • LaMarcus Aldridge
  • Josh Howard
  • Ron Artest
  • Richard Jefferson
  • Carlos Boozer

Durant will have to average over 30ppg to top anyone on that list this season.

I know Roy made it in his second season, but he faced a lot less competition at guard.

by MiledAnimal on Oct 5, 2009 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Simple solution for those bandwagon fans

Let’s just not ever lose two in a row this year, ok?

I’ll send Nate a memo.

As author of Da BOM (Blazer Optimist Manifesto), I hereby certify that we will win 62 games in the regular season. Disagree at your peril.

by jscot on Oct 5, 2009 11:21 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Agreed.

"Is it always like this?" Collins said after the scrimmage. "It was like the first game of the NBA playoffs or something."

by Y5k on Oct 5, 2009 6:59 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the shout out Ben.

I’m glad you got to see me right after getting the pic. I’m sure I was totally incoherent.

"We believe" -Rudy Fernandez

by twiggs on Oct 5, 2009 11:59 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Blazers Trail

I’ve been really impressed with this Blazer blog, Ben.. I hope you’ve seen it.

http://blazerstrail.com/2009/10/05/is-brandon-roy-a-superstar/

Portland Sports Performance provides elite mental and emotional training for athletes of all ages and in all sports.

www.portlandsportsperformance.com

by blazersunited on Oct 5, 2009 12:18 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Blake vs Miller

yeah, i’m rooting for Blake. I like the guy. He wants to play here. he plays with fire. he’s willing to make sacrifices so the blazers keep him, so I root for him. If he can beat out miller or equal miller then it’s possible he’ll make it through the year instead of being traded.

I want Blake with us when we win the championship, which i think is possible this year. After that, I can live with a trade if it has to happen, but not before that. Blake left things on the table to play with the blazers as did Joel. I want to get them both the rings before thinking about letting them go.

I do notice a little media favoritism too. maybe it’s for the same reasons. Maybe it’s because they know or like Blake. I don’t know. I agree that it’s there. However, I do not dislike Miller. ON the contrary, I think this guy can give us the pieces that put us over the top just as Juwan Howard. I’m still rooting for Blake though, at least until he gets that ring.

"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.

But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html

"I told Pau the Lakers never win here in Portland; I think it's great." -- Rudy Fernandez

by ratbastird on Oct 5, 2009 1:07 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

7 players under 30 in positional PER

I suppose that means we’ve got 7 starter-quality players – with Blake and Przy only missing the cut due to their reserve rolls. Throw in Martell (who was apparently forgotten), and you’ve got a couple NBA teams right here in Portland…

by levelhed on Oct 5, 2009 1:17 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Blake and Przy

only miss the cut because Hollinger, for the second or third year in a row, is predicting them to drop off in their production. If he gave them last year’s numbers, they would be top 30, too.

It’s ok, Hollinger, keep predicting them to drop off. One of these years, it will actually happen. It’s inevitable.

As author of Da BOM (Blazer Optimist Manifesto), I hereby certify that we will win 62 games in the regular season. Disagree at your peril.

by jscot on Oct 5, 2009 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd be shocked if Przy didn't drop off a little

He was playing out of his mind the first half of last season and then played more like himself the 2nd half.

Blake’s 3 pt % will go down a bit also, I think, though there definitely appears to be something to the idea that the Blazers offense gives him more open looks than he’s had in his other NBA stops.

Its not just those two— Aldridge is projected to drop off somewhat also— Hollinger’s system clearly incorporates regression to the mean, and I’m sure there is good reason to do so if you look at typical NBA careers. Its an automated system, so its going to miss plenty of subtleties, obviously.

by jksnake99 on Oct 5, 2009 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll be surprised if Blake's 3 pt drops off

Although if he’s not playing next to Brandon all the time, he may not get the same looks. But he’s not shooting with a bad shoulder like he was at the end of last year.

His PER might drop some if his usage drops, though.

As author of Da BOM (Blazer Optimist Manifesto), I hereby certify that we will win 62 games in the regular season. Disagree at your peril.

by jscot on Oct 5, 2009 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah
Its not just those two— Aldridge is projected to drop off somewhat also— Hollinger’s system clearly incorporates regression to the mean, and I’m sure there is good reason to do so if you look at typical NBA careers. Its an automated system, so its going to miss plenty of subtleties, obviously.

He has the majority of players around the league getting worse. That’s definitely the result I got when I regression year 1 stats on year 2 stats. That’s just what the numbers tell you. I think a decent amount of it is due to really “weird” seasons, where players play in a unique circumstance, more so than that most players regress.

The only players in Hollinger’s forecast that don’t regress are rookies and guys below 30 that regressed in 2008 from 2007. (JR Smith, Bosh). I would like to see a head-to-head competition between Kevin Pelton’s system and Hollinger’s.

by PoliSam on Oct 5, 2009 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know

He has Greg and Nic getting better, but Rudy and Jerryd getting worse. So I don’t think there is a single rule for rookies. I don’t know what he’s doing.

As author of Da BOM (Blazer Optimist Manifesto), I hereby certify that we will win 62 games in the regular season. Disagree at your peril.

by jscot on Oct 5, 2009 9:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hollinger's qualatative take on Aldridge is excellent-- I'll only post some snippets since its insier
Call it a mild disappointment. Aldridge did all the same things he did in his breakout 2007-08 season … but nothing more. Whether this represents progress is in the eye of the beholder. On the one hand, he didn’t regress and proved his sophomore season wasn’t a fluke. On the other, one gets the impression we’re already pretty close to his ceiling.

That ceiling is likely to include an All-Star Game or two at some point, because he’s become a force as a sweet-shooting, low-mistake post player.

One still wishes he were tougher on the blocks; his free throw rate remains unimpressive and Houston bulldog Luis Scola outscrapped him in the playoffs. But 6-foot-11 floor-spacers are pretty rare commodities, and Aldridge shot 42.0 percent on long 2s with few negatives to offset it.

by jksnake99 on Oct 5, 2009 1:33 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

tease

"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.

But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html

"I told Pau the Lakers never win here in Portland; I think it's great." -- Rudy Fernandez

by ratbastird on Oct 6, 2009 8:45 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I second the ESPN Insider recommendation

Plus, you get it free with an ESPN the mag subscription.

I am the law!

by LaColin on Oct 5, 2009 3:43 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I like it

Good pictures, good articles. – Elgin

Without you out there, we're nowhere here

by 22baylor on Oct 6, 2009 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I get mine a good week and a half late

Nothing like getting the NFL preview after the season started.

by tominhawaii on Oct 7, 2009 6:55 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why would anyone want to have Mike Rice fired?

We all know he’s a drunk, but at least he’s a lovable drunk!

Blazers win!

by The X-man on Oct 5, 2009 4:05 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

we need someone who's got everyone's PER memorized

We need the Bill James of basketball analysis. Someone to engage Mike Barrett’s mind. – Elgin

Without you out there, we're nowhere here

by 22baylor on Oct 6, 2009 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sergio Article:

A visit with Sergio in tomorrow’s Oregonian.

by DrScience on Oct 5, 2009 4:26 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I 1000% agree with Kellex / Blaze of love.

Miller isn’t a rook. Like he says, nobody has a problem with Roy pacing himself.

I read one comment in another thread that someone didn’t like him because “he acts better than everyone else…doesn’t represent what Portland is all about”…Oh please. Let the man do his talking on the court. If he isn’t touching off rounds in the Safari parking lot, I could give a rat’s butt what he does in his off time, or how he conducts himself with the media.

"The match in Los Angeles is a good opportunity to begin to demonstrate that we want to make war." Rudy Fernández (translated)

by G_dubs on Oct 5, 2009 6:27 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Martell:

“I hope (Batum) gets it. Honestly. To tell you the truth, I hope he gets it. I think he’d be a great starter on this team. For me, it’s just about making sure I’m ready when my name is called, whether that be starting or coming off the bench. Either way we have two phenomenal units. I’m excited to play with either one.”

I’ve always liked Martell, but now he is vying for the honor of being Y5k’s favorite Blazer.

Rudyculize: The act of Rudy making others look slow, dim and generally oafish.
http://www.myspace.com/y5k

by Y5k on Oct 5, 2009 6:45 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

i wish he wanted to be the starter

coming out of high school the guy was the best seattle prospect ever, more than roy, nate robinson, or everyone else from the pacific northwest. i kinda wish he was a star just so the blazers would be that much better.

by kengriffey on Oct 6, 2009 3:49 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah, but I don't take what he says at 100% face value. Of course he wants to start, but he realizes the high road, especially coming off an injury, will serve him better in the long run.

or so I suspect.

"Is it always like this?" Collins said after the scrimmage. "It was like the first game of the NBA playoffs or something."

by Y5k on Oct 6, 2009 5:06 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

His career doesn't depend on starting this year

This is the second of a five year contract. Just win, baby. If he plays his role really well, his next contract will be bigger, here or elsewhere. No point in making waves, he wants to stay part of this team and win championships.

As author of Da BOM (Blazer Optimist Manifesto), I hereby certify that we will win 62 games in the regular season. Disagree at your peril.

by jscot on Oct 6, 2009 5:12 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

absolutely.

"Is it always like this?" Collins said after the scrimmage. "It was like the first game of the NBA playoffs or something."

by Y5k on Oct 6, 2009 5:36 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Those "Fire Mike Rice" jokers have some real problems.

I nearly made a negative sign way back when in the dark days. It was to have read “Fire Whitsitt.” I was enraged, but I could not bring myself to take negativity to an event that is supposed to be fun and uplifting. Someone else had the same idea, however, and she was tossed from the game for carrying an identical sign.
Fire Mike Rice? Just stupidness. If you don’t like his commentary, turn off the sound, switch channels, or go to the game in person.
I, personally, like Rice because he is such a wildcard. He is anything but bland and he has a great voice. He’s perfectly cast with Barrett, who is more cookie-cutter announcer type. Think Pat Summerall and John Madden.

"Is it always like this?" Collins said after the scrimmage. "It was like the first game of the NBA playoffs or something."

by Y5k on Oct 5, 2009 7:05 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Completely agree. Well said.

by GUnit on Oct 6, 2009 8:24 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Andre hate

Andre been a Laker fan and a jerk to the media, two things Portland hates more than anything these days.

Kobe is my profile pic because of this beatdown I received.
Blake > Andre

by prezofdeath on Oct 6, 2009 6:05 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

roy is a laker fan, or was as a kid.

"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.

But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html

"I told Pau the Lakers never win here in Portland; I think it's great." -- Rudy Fernandez

by ratbastird on Oct 6, 2009 8:46 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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