Denver vs. Portland 10/29/09 Issues with Rotations
First off, this is not about Blake/Miller, neither guy had a big effect on the game positive or negative. But I theorize that some other rotation issues did impact the point guard position in general.
The obvious reasons for the loss:
1. The Blazers shot terribly
2. The Nuggets, despite fewer rebounds, seem to get a quick hand on the ball more than the Blazers, disrupting shots around the basket
3. Foul shooting
4. Anthony playing great.
5. Foul trouble for our Centers
The last one we can partly chock up to the superior aggressiveness of the Nuggets, but mostly to the usual NBA refs we all wanted back so bad, deciding they would remove our size advantage from the competition to favor the Nuggets. Allowing the clock to run down to 1.9 seconds, when Roy obviously fouled Anthony at 4 seconds was also extremely convenient, forcing a prayer shot. As was discussed in the thread about a certain former NBA ref's tell-all book, you have to be at least 10 points better than the other team to beat them and the officials. We let it stay too close
Now for what I saw as a big problem for us. Rudy was the hot hand. That's good right? Well yes and no. Because he was the hot hand, we had to stick with him, but we also need to stick with our other SG Roy at the end of games obviously, and we still need either Miller or Blake in if we want steady ball handling at such a crucial time. That meant we were playing "small ball" for most of the fourth quarter, and even though Rudy was shooting the lights out, we had no defensive answer for Anthony, who was doing it at the other end, because Roy (small at SF) had to defend him, and expend extra energy doing it. The moment they took Ty Lawson out of the game, we needed to put Martel or Outlaw in for Rudy, because we just lost the only serious matchup advantage we had with the small line up. Or look at it this way, if we put in Webster or Outlaw, Carmelo has to guard them, and either Billups or Carter has to take Roy. Then we have an advantageous matchup again.
The reason why Rudy rather than Outlaw or Webster having the hot hand makes it hard on our point guards is; because in a three guard line-up, They've got a bigger player on Roy, and in this case we don't have a true center in the game, there are less passes available than usual, and a lane where they have a big size advantage. LMA is locked up by a bigger player, and taken out of the game too. With one of our small forwards matching size for size, we could have opened it up more, even without a true center, and had a better chance of contesting Anthony's shots, and having Roy shut down one of their guards. It seems counter-intuitve to say that sticking with Rudy who was amazing cost us the game, outside the obvious factors I mentioned above, but I think it did, because for every basket he scored, Anthony scored one taking advantage of his matchup with Roy, and he got to the free throw line at a greater rate.
Our lack of post scoring was also exposed once again. It was our greatest off season need, and we didn't fill it. It's really a shame we didn't get Milsap or David Lee. As much as I like Howard, he is a shooter, which we already have a'plenty. Oden won't become a post threat overnight as many had hoped, so we are back to last year's issue of needing a banger PF. A lot of fans didn't seem to get the urgency that some of us felt to get a good back-up PF, but it may start to dawn on them if they realize Oden's issues are not only that he didn't get the ball enough, and LMA is still not a post player.
Conclusion: we might have tried harder to establish either Outlaw or Webster, especially when we are playing against a team who's best player is a small forward. I love it when Rudy has the hot hand, but hope it comes in the first three quarters rather than at the point in the game where there is no way we are going to sit Roy, and the other team is not going to sit their best guys, since I still don't think the Rudy/Roy back court has been proven yet, and "small ball" can kill us in this type of situation. If Rudy at SG and Roy at PG is our best fourth quarter back court, then once again, we really needed to find that post scorer this summer, and not have taken Miller, but that's water under the bridge now. In the more general sense, we need to be as aggressive or more aggressive than the other team, because even with all the things that went wrong, I see no reason we should have lost to that team if we had played as hard as they did. I hope the guys have some Playoff flashbacks, to when they just weren't hard nosed enough to play with the big boys, and the angst they feel doubles their determination to show what they can do the rest of the year..
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The most sensible option would be to play Roy/Rudy/Webster
Webster needs to be in to guard Melo, Rudy needs to be in because he was the hot hand, and Roy needs to be in because he is Roy. Plus, why do you need a PG in the 4th quarter if Roy is going to bring the ball up the court and act like a PG anyway?
by trk on Oct 30, 2009 2:11 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't disagree with you, but was pointing out that at least the coach and maybe KP feel the need,
or why did we bring Miller in? So if we are going to have a point guard, and we are going to have Roy, I feel we need to drop Rudy for Webster or Outlaw, when we need to stop a superstar small forward. I was just pointing out that we have some rotation issues that don’t have easy answers, and that aren’t about swapping one guy who plays a position for another guy who plays the same position, but trading offense for defense across the whole lineup.
I’m wondering if Nate or KP will take steps to clear this up, or if this sort of thing will just end up haunting us in big games against teams that expose this stuff. It’s only the second game, so I’m not going to start saying we need to trade this guy or that guy, but if this becomes a regular theme of games against the top teams, I would want to see some changes made to give us a balance on O and D.
by wingzeta on Oct 30, 2009 2:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Could have gone with three guards
and used a zone defense. Without J.R., I don’t know that Denver had enough shooters to blast us out of a zone. You wouldn’t want to do it for a whole game, but for a few minutes it might have worked.
I can tell you how to make an Excel spreadsheet that proves Portland wins 62 games this year.
by jscot on Oct 30, 2009 4:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
My biggest rotation issue
At the end of the second half for several we had a rotation of:
Blake, Rudy, Travis, Juwan and LaMarcus
They couldn’t do a thing, because you’ve got basically 5 shooters in with no creators and when LaMarcus is at the 5 no post players. This group just didn’t work, period. I realize there were foul troubles that kept Martel, Oden and Pryz out. But Brandon or Miller should have been on the floor. Somebody needed to be in that could drive to the hoop and draw attention.
While I realize it’s easy to look at the end of the game and see that as when we lost, I really think it was the 4-5 minute stretch at the end of the second half when we were outscored something like 11-4.
by boppitywop on Oct 30, 2009 7:56 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree. Roy on Melo was not working much. This was not a great team to play a 3 guard line-up on.
I think Nate was just trying to maximize the offense, and with our centers in foul trouble he went small. I agree it had disastrous results on our defense. Jscot is right I think. Should have gone zone.
by dario argento on Oct 30, 2009 9:52 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Nate needs to realize that...
Foul trouble doesn’t mean you need to throw away the game in order to not let anybody foul out. Denver let their bigger guys foul out and they won, but Nate had to rotate way too much just to play it safe. We need rhythm and flow and Nate cuts that quick with this strategy. We need to let them play more and if they foul out then they foul out. Let them learn from it, and at least we’ll get a lot more out of them while they’re in there.
by Coastie07 on Oct 30, 2009 10:41 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm fine with Greg Oden fouling out the remaining 80 games this season.
Sure, Nate cannot let Greg and Joel get 4 fouls the 1st half. He had to go small in the 2nd quarter, and I think Juwan was a better option than Travis given how physical the game was being played. But Greg needs to learn how to play with fouls. Let him play, Nate.
by Sean M on Oct 30, 2009 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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